The Twins are set for another in-person meeting with Scott Boras this week to discuss Carlos Correa, Darren Wolfson of SKOR North Radio and 5 Eyewitness News reports in his latest podcast (Correa/Twins talk beginning at 10:10). The Twins have already discussed various contract structures with Boras and Correa, reportedly putting forth multiple offers.
Correa, of course, has a broad range of interest, having been connected to the Giants, Phillies, Cubs, Padres, Orioles and Dodgers, among others. ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote last week that Correa could be the first of the four big-name shortstops to come off the board, calling his market “excellent” and noting that the Twins have been “making a strong push to re-sign him and build their franchise around” Correa. If, however, Correa ultimately signs elsewhere, Minnesota’s upcoming meeting with Boras could serve dual purposes; Boras also represents Xander Bogaerts, who is reportedly of interest to the Twins in the event that Correa departs.
While Correa is the focus at this point, pitching upgrades have been a perennial need at Target Field as well. The team has a decent rotation group consisting of Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda and Bailey Ober, but each of Gray, Mahle and Maeda can become a free agent next winter. (Maeda is also returning from 2021 Tommy John surgery, so his workload could well be monitored.) The Twins have quite a few MLB-ready arms behind that group — Josh Winder, Simeon Woods Richardson, Matt Canterino — and could also get Chris Paddack back from Tommy John surgery next summer.
That said, the potential departure of three starters next winter and lack of proven options behind them at least has the Twins thinking creatively about ways to add high-end, controllable pitching. To that end, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reports that Minnesota’s front office has at least discussed the possibility of trading reigning AL batting champion Luis Arraez — if the deal could net them a high-end rotation upgrade. To be clear, there’s no indication that the team plans to aggressively shop Arraez.
Arraez, 25, enjoyed an outstanding .316/.375/.420 output at the plate in 2022, tallying eight home runs, 31 doubles and a triple in 603 plate appearances. Since making his MLB debut in 2019, he’s been one of baseball’s hardest players to strike out, fanning in just 8.3% of his plate appearances and walking at an even-higher 8.7% clip. Arraez’s bat-to-ball skills are practically unmatched, and he’s been fairly disciplined, walking at a roughly league-average clip.
Defensively, Arraez climbed through the minors as a second baseman but has settled into a more nomadic position on the Twins’ roster. With Jorge Polanco locked in at second base (and unlikely to move back to shortstop, where he was a sub-par defender even before a pair of right ankle surgeries), Arraez has logged time at both infield corners, at designated hitter and in left field over the past few seasons. The Twins deployed him primarily at first base in 2022, due in part to injuries to Miguel Sano and Alex Kirilloff. Despite a lack of experience, he handled the position quite well in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved (4), Ultimate Zone Rating (2.2) and Outs Above Average (1).
Excellent as Arraez is on the whole, however, it might be tough for him alone to net the Twins the type of impact arm they’d require to actually consider moving him. At this point, while Arraez is still young, he’s already “only” under club control for another three seasons. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to earn $5MM next season in his second year of arbitration as a Super Two player.
Given that the point of even considering an Arraez deal would be to acquire pitching they can control beyond the upcoming season, they’d likely be looking for at least two years of control in said starting pitcher; giving up three years of Arraez isn’t likely to return a high-end starter with multiple years of club control remaining — particularly not when (as Hayes lays out in greater detail), Arraez has a history of knee troubles dating back to a torn ACL as a minor leaguer in 2017. The Twins could add in some minor league talent to help sweeten any deal, but that’d only further complicate the equation. It’s certainly of note that they’re open to the idea, and it’d be a surprise if other teams didn’t reach out to see just what it might take to pry Arraez loose, but an actual trade seems like a long shot at this time.
The Twins’ other focus as they look toward the 2023 season and beyond has been behind the plate. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey has said he’d like to add another catcher to the mix, and the Twins have spoken at multiple points about wanting to deploy a timeshare behind the plate, splitting time fairly evenly between incumbent Ryan Jeffers — who thrives against left-handed pitching — and a new acquisition. A left-handed bat would best fit the bill, but any catcher who can provide some more offense against right-handed pitching would make some sense.
Wolfson suggests that the Twins don’t appear to be after Willson Contreras as of right now but have spoken to the Athletics, Blue Jays and Braves about their catching depth. The A’s are expected to trade Sean Murphy as the next step in their rebuilding process, while the Jays are dealing with something of a surplus, having Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno as MLB-caliber options on the 40-man roster. Atlanta has Travis d’Arnaud signed for $8MM this coming season plus a 2024 option at the same price, and William Contreras’ breakout could make it easier to part with d’Arnaud, speculatively speaking. The Braves also have veteran Manny Pina signed at a year and $4.5MM, but he played just five games last year before requiring season-ending wrist surgery and, as a career-long defensive-minded backup, wouldn’t fit the Twins’ stated preference of adding a catcher who can provide more offense.
As far as free agents go, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Twins are among the many teams with some interest in Christian Vazquez. While Vazquez is similar to Jeffers as a right-handed hitter who handles lefties better than righties, his career platoon splits are more even than those of Jeffers, who tattoos lefties but has been vastly below-average against right-handed opponents.
Vazquez, 32, is regarded as a premium defensive option as well, which further adds to his appeal. He’s thrown out a hefty 34% of opponents who attempt to steal against him, consistently drawn plus framing marks, and more broadly has been credited with 51 Defensive Runs Saved in parts of eight MLB seasons. Vazquez was a glove-first player for much of his early big league tenure, but dating back to 2019 he’s turned in a .271/.318/.416 batting line. We predicted a three-year, $27MM deal for Vazquez on our annual Top 50 Free Agent rankings, and Rosenthal reports that Vazquez is indeed likely to command a three-year deal based on the current interest.
However things shake out, it’s shaping up to be another active offseason for the Twins, who are going to be quite involved in both the shortstop and (to a lesser extent) catcher markets in the coming weeks. With their current projected payroll of about $98MM sitting more than $40MM shy of where they opened the 2023 season — and no indication that number serves as a ceiling — the Twins should have the latitude to pursue just about any target they choose, but it’s quickly become clear that their general offseason direction hinges on Correa.
With players being locked-up on these longer deals we are going to have some boring free agent classes in the future.
Wonder who says no to a Pablo Lopez or Trevor Rodgers for Arraez swap. Would make a hell of a lot of sense for both sides.
stretch123;
Twins would have to pony up quite a bit along with Arraez –
starting with an experienced all-around solid CF as well as a
pitching prospect. Pitchers are expensive. Young controlled
pitchers are extremely expensive.
Don’t even know where the Marlins would play Arraez.
They’d play him at 2B maybe move Jazz to SS
Arrraez has more value than Trevor Rogers at this point in time.
3 v. 2 on Lopez. Twins would have to add something but not really sure what the Marlins would want from MIN in addition. They need position prospects all over the diamond save where they play Chisholm.
Sign him up for 11 years, how much more stupid can it get? You’ll come across at least 3 SS as good as him in that span of time, but go ahead, 11 years? Whoever is putting ink on these contracts, I have no sympathy for you.
Eric Lauer for Arraez.
That would be like a Twins fan saying Arraez for Woodruff. Neither is in the ballpark.
I want no part of Trevor Rogers. If the Twins traded Arraez for either one of those pitchers, dumbest move of the offseason. Do not underrate what Arraez can do with the bat. Tough outs are valuable.
Watching Luis Arraez bat is a treat. Smart hitter. Sets up pitchers. Don’t know that I’ve ever seen him fooled by a pitch enough to lose his balance. Seems to be prepared for anything.
Unfortunately he doesn’t really have a position, and isn’t a run producer. Quality pitching is scarce and expensive. Don’t know what the Twins can get back for him.
Samuel, can you imagine how valuable he would be if he started popping 20 homers a season?! Why do I feel he would do just that in the years after the Twins make the mistake of dealing him.
Shame twins want pitching Arraez would look good in jays uni. Batting 2nd, playing 2nd and be one of those lefty bats they need and allows Espinal to take a step back into a super utility role.
Trade us Manoah and you can have him with a bow on!
Twins should sign Dansby Swanson, he’s cheaper and has close to the stats Correa has. Then trade for Sean Murphy. Trade Kepler. Get an outfielder that can actually hit in Kepler’s place. Sign or trade for a flame thrower pitcher, then get a relief pitcher that scares most lineups. Problem solved.
I’m just gonna stop you right there as you just summoned Asfan. He’s gonna let you know that the twins don’t have the prospect capital to land such super star in Murphy
Yuck. Pass on Dansby. Probably just had the best season of his career. Give me Bogaerts or a stopgap SS. If you can get Murphy without Lee/Lewis going the other way, I think that’s a good move. Kepler needs to stick around as the emergency CF. Larnach, Kiriloff, Kepler, Gordon can cover the corners if Buck is hurt.
I would bet that the O’s just checked in on Correa as a courtesy, there’s no immediate need for his talents IMO especially this year.
How are the twins going to monitor maeda coming off an injury, limit his starts from 4innings to 3?
2020 Maeda averaged 6 ip/start. 2021 he average 5 ip/start. Sure not a workhorse but your 4 number is bogus.
Twins pitching averaged 4.8 innings per start last year. Not rounding up is bogus I know
I see what you were doing. I was using Maeda’s actual numbers which are almost exactly 6 and 5.
I want the Twins to pitch deeper too but do people really want Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer and random 5th starter to pitch 6 or more innings? After watching them, I know I don’t. I’m sure opponents and fans of opponents do.
Talent-wise, only Joe Ryan and Sonny Gray deserve to pitch longer on a regular basis. Maeda is probably going to be on a limit due to coming back from TJ. If Mahle’s shoulder holds up I can see him being someone they let go further but he constantly has shoulder issues. They need better talent and then they need that talent to stay healthy
Could see this guy replacing la Stella for the giants. Fits that same mold pretty closely!
I think Vasquez will get more than 9 mils a year. At that price I think many teams will be interested. Somebody will pay a little over market
At 9 mill I would pass. He’s really not much of an upgrade on Jeffers. Maybe bring back Gary Sanchez on an incentive laden 1 year deal?
No player who wants a big payday will sign with the Twins. There’s no hope of winning with whatever cheap chumps fill the lineup.
Lol you know where Correa signed last off-season, right?
Ok stan, go back to your team’s threads.
Twins are best passing on Correa and extending Arraez in line with Buxton, you dont sign a player at a pay grade well above what your captain makes and Buxton is the captain, at least on the offensive side of the ball.
It happens all the time. Every players situation is different. Just because buxton is a team leader doesn’t mean he’s the highest paid. He’s been through a lot of injuries to this point.
Padres send Ha Seong Kim and Ryan Weathers to Twins for Arraez.
Twins would not take that deal. The team is looking for pitching and Weathers ain’t it.
Twins haven’t had a decent lead-off hitter since Denard Span and now we want to give up the next three years of Luis Arraez. Why? Because we are worried about the future? When will a Win Now mentality come back to this club? With the shift going away, natural hitters like Arraez are pure gold.
Wouldnt be surprising to see Vazquez get 4/45, its a crazy time of the year.
What happens to Royce Lewis? It’s weird to discuss Twins SS situation without at least name dropping him.
I thought Kyle Farmer was a great pickup for the Twins.
He tore his acl a second time. Won’t be ready until the second half of the season. Makes no sense to factor him in at all.
When the Twins actually have a log jam of good healthy players, it’ll probably be the first time in history.
Yeah, but ponying up $300 million or so seems odd for a mid-market team. The money could be spent elsewhere. They could play Farmer at SS until Lewis is ready. Plus they have Brooks Lee coming up through the system.
To me, it would make more sense to spend on pitching. Go after Rondon & maybe someone else.
I don’t disagree with you on the Twins needing top pitching. It’s Rodon or bust now as far as free agents, but do you actually see the Twins paying for a pitcher at that level? They have not so far and their only true attempts were Wheeler and Darvish. Rodon wants more than those two got and according to Dan Hayes, the Twins aren’t liking these prices for pitching which is why they may be open to trading Arraez.
If the Twins don’t get Correa, I don’t see them turning around and spending that money on Rodon. History shows they won’t. So it’s not an either or thing. It’s sign Correa and maybe a bottom starter, possibly 4th OF and some BP help OR sign a bottom starter, cheap SS, possibly 4th OF and some BP help. The second option means they just don’t spend that 30-35 million which is typically how they operate. Could be a trade in there to make up for some of it or they could pivot to Bogaerts maybe, but the way that they operate has never been a pick one: Correa or Rodon. It’s pick one: Correa or cheaper options at all positions.
It would shock me if the signed Rodon. A happy shock, but a shock. Also I’m not sure Lee is a SS. If he ends up being, that’s awesome but most reports believe he’s destined for 3B.
Arraez is the closest to Rod Carew I’ve seen. A magician with a bat in his hands.
I say “No” to signing Correa. I think Phillies messed up on 11 year deal. Way too many years. Bet Kepler has a better year with MLB eliminating the shift. Twins will trade him for garbage and he will bat 270 20+ Homer’s. Would love to have Murphy at catcher but he’s in high demand. Better call Toronto for catcher.
Travis D’Arnaud for Austin Martin & Woods-Richardson. Who says no?
So Jose Berrios for Travis D’Arnaud. Ehhh I doubt the Twins value a replacable catcher that much.
Braves should sell high on D’Arnaud because he basically had a career year. And he’s going to be 34 so if you can get something then go ahead.
Don’t understand the Twins infatuation with Correa, they must have some sentimental attachment to him since he’s the first elite player they’ve attracted as a free agent. Chasing that thrill with a new long-term contract for him would be a huge mistake, they already have Buxton’s contract that isn’t going to age well. Adding Correa for huge money to go along with Buxton will hamper the team for the duration of both contracts. Would ensure another 10 years of mediocrity, something the Twins have perfected.
I’m not sure how any person can convince themselves that 15 million a year, what Buxton is getting, is not going to age well. If he keeps getting injured as much as he currently does, he’s already worth the contract.
If he starts playing 50 games or less every year, than sure. 15 million is nothing in today’s game. That’s like fourth starter money. Twenty years ago, 15 million was a big deal. Now the big bucks are 30 or more million.
What could the Braves realistically get for William Contreras? I’d definitely be interested to see what he could land back.
I wonder if a 3 team trade could work between the A’s, Braves, and Twins where the Twins get Murphy and Braves get Seth Brown (who I personally like).