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2023-24 Offseason Outlook

Offseason Outlook: Miami Marlins

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The Marlins made the postseason in 2023, their first time in the playoffs of a full season since 2003. But the good news stopped there. They were quickly swept by the Phillies, then their ace announced that he underwent Tommy John surgery. This was followed by general manager Kim Ng stepping aside after disagreements with chairman Bruce Sherman.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

  • 1B Josh Bell can opt out of $16.5MM salary
  • OF/DH Jorge Soler can opt out of $13MM salary
  • Club holds $10.5MM club option on RHP Johnny Cueto with $2.5MM buyout
  • Clubs holds $9MM club option on RHP Matt Barnes with $2.25MM buyout ($8MM option increased to $9MM when Barnes was traded, per Associated Press)
  • Club holds $3.625MM club option on IF/OF Jon Berti with $25K buyout (Berti can be retained via arbitration even if option is declined)

2024 financial commitments (assuming Berti’s option is the only one exercised): $24.625MM
Total future commitments: $107.625MM*

* Includes $30MM owed to Yankees as part of Giancarlo Stanton deal, to be paid from 2026-2028

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Stallings, Hampson, Davis

Free Agents

The Marlins went 84-78 in 2023, just enough to squeeze into the Wild Card picture during the final weekend of the season. It would be fair to wonder whether the club was actually as good as that record would indicate. Their run differential was -57, which would be more in line with a 75-win club. Despite allowing more runs than they scored by a significant margin, they succeeded by going 33-14 in one-run games, a difficult tightrope to walk for an extended period of time.

Whether you think the club deserved their record or not, they will be challenged just to stay at that level. Sandy Alcantara required Tommy John surgery at the end of the season and will now miss the entire 2024 campaign. He wasn’t quite in his previous Cy Young-winning form in 2023, but the Marlins are nonetheless worse off without him.

There will likely be losses in the lineup as well. Each of Jorge Soler and Josh Bell have upcoming opt-outs that allow them to return to free agency. Soler’s deal originally had a $9MM salary for 2024 but he upped that to $13MM via plate appearance escalators. He hit 36 home runs this year and walked in 11.4% of his plate appearances, leading to a wRC+ of 126. Even though he’s not a strong defender, he should be able to parlay that platform into a strong multi-year deal. Whoever is in charge of the Miami front office will then have to decide whether to extend a qualifying offer to Soler, with this year’s QO likely to be around $20.5MM. If they decide to make that offer, he would be a borderline candidate to accept, but it may not be possible with the club’s financials. More on that later.

As for Bell, his season wasn’t quite as potent as Soler’s, but he finished strong. He hit .233/.318/.383 for the Guardians but then .270/.338/.480 after being traded to the Marlins. He is ineligible to receive a qualifying offer because of that trade. Given that, and the weak market for impact bats, he may be able to leave that $16.5MM on the table and find a multi-year deal of some kind.

Chairman Bruce Sherman will first have to find someone to navigate this, with general manager Kim Ng deciding not to trigger her end of a mutual option. It was reported that she did so because Sherman planned to hire a president of baseball operations to work above her, in addition to reported disagreements about some other staff decisions. Given that reporting, it’s possible he has someone in mind, but few details have been leaked about the front office search.

That makes it somewhat difficult to project what the winter plans are, but there will be some early decisions to be made, whether someone has been hired or not. The Soler QO decision is the only challenging one, however, as the others are fairly straightforward. Both Johnny Cueto and Matt Barnes had injury problems and poor results when on the field, so their options will be bought out. Jon Berti just had his second straight season of managing to produce more than 2 WAR in a utility role, so his option should be picked up. He can be retained via arbitration even if it’s not.

But after that, there will be bigger choices to be made about the club’s path forward. In terms of the financials, the 2023 Opening Day payroll of $93MM was the highest of the Sherman era, according to data at Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They are currently projected for a budget of $103MM next year, per Roster Resource. If Soler and Bell opt out and a couple members of the arb class are non-tendered, that number will drop down to around $70MM.

That will give the club some money to spend, but they will have to replace two key bats from the lineup. The Marlins scored 666 runs in 2023, better than just four clubs, while their wRC+ of 94 was better than just 10. With Soler and Bell perhaps set to become free agents, the Fish will need to find ways to add offense just to break even. Giving a qualifying offer to Soler risks tying up $20.5MM in one player when they have multiple needs to address.

In recent years, the focus has been on the Miami pitching staff and how it could be parlayed into an offensive upgrade. That may be a little trickier now that the club already made a significant move, flipping Pablo López and prospects to the Twins for Luis Arraez prior to 2023. With Alcantara’s surgery and trade of prospect Jake Eder, the rotation surplus doesn’t seem quite as robust as it did a year ago.

There is still a strong foundation there, with Jesús Luzardo, Eury Pérez and Braxton Garrett giving the club a strong front three, but it gets shaky after that. Trevor Rogers was excellent in 2021 but struggled in 2022 and then missed most of 2023 due to injury. Edward Cabrera has flashed a tantalizing strikeout-groundout combo at times but the walks have become a serious concern. Former first-round pick Max Meyer underwent Tommy John surgery in August of 2022 and missed all of 2023. Ryan Weathers, a former first-round pick of the Padres, has a 5.88 ERA in his major league career thus far. Sixto Sánchez was once a highly-touted prospect but has been limited to just one inning of minor league work in the past three seasons and is now out of options.

After the López trade in the last offseason, the Marlins pivoted to grab Cueto from free agency. Perhaps they find someone to trade in this group and try a similar path this winter. Cabrera is now out of options and could be plausibly flipped to a rebuilding club with the ability to be patient with his development, but that would likely leave the Marlins looking for at least one free agent starter, as well as relying on Rogers or Meyer to be healthy and effective.

If the Marlins look to add offense via free agency, catcher would be one obvious target. Jacob Stallings hit .210/.287/.290 over the past two seasons after coming over from the Pirates in a trade. Nick Fortes took over as the primary backstop in 2023. He didn’t hit much either but his defensive grades were generally strong. With Stallings about to turn 34 and set for an arbitration raise, it seems fair to expect the club to move on. Fortes is still is in his pre-arbitration years and can act as a cheap glove-first part of a catching tandem.

The free agent options aren’t amazing, but they are certainly more enticing than Stallings. Gary Sánchez had a strong second half with the Padres, hitting 19 home runs in 75 games, but should still be affordable. In 2023, he had to settle for minor league deals with the Giants and Mets. The latter selected his contract but designated him for assignment less than a week later. A waiver claim by the Padres gave him the chance to launch those 19 home runs and raise his free agent stock, but his season was ended by a wrist fracture in September, which could give some clubs pause.

Mitch Garver would be an excellent fit as a bat-first catcher, combining with Fortes behind the plate. But he hit well enough in 2023, including for the Rangers in the playoffs, that they may give him the qualifying offer. For an oft-injured catcher going into his age-33 season, it would be tough for him to walk away from over $20MM.

A player with a similar profile is Tom Murphy. He’s only been able to play 315 games dating back to the 2015 season due to various injuries, but he generally hits well when he’s in there. In 2023, he served as backup to Cal Raleigh of the Mariners, hitting eight home runs in just 47 games before a thumb sprain ended his season in August.

The Marlins could also look for an upgrade at first base, with Bell maybe opting out, Garrett Cooper having been traded and Yuli Gurriel now a free agent. Giving Bell a new contract would be one option, but the free agent market also features Rhys Hoskins, Brandon Belt, Carlos Santana and others. The club almost signed Justin Turner last winter and he is likely to end up triggering his own opt-out. But many of the available options are veterans best suited to a part-time role, also spending significant time at designated hitter. Hoskins is one of the younger ones in the group but he missed all of 2023 after tearing his ACL in the spring. Players like Rowdy Tellez and Dominic Smith could wind up non-tendered by their current clubs. Pete Alonso is the crown jewel of theoretical trade candidates but it’s hard to imagine him going to a division rival.

At the other infield positions, Luis Arraez should be back at second base and Jake Burger at third. Neither is an excellent defender but they both had strong seasons at the plate and the Marlins need their bats in the lineup. Shortstop is wide open at the moment, with Joey Wendle having struggled and now a free agent anyway. Berti and Garrett Hampson are still on the roster but better suited to utility roles than a full-time shortstop gig. Jacob Amaya struggled in his major league debut and had a subpar season in Triple-A.

Finding an everyday shortstop this winter won’t be easy. The free agent market doesn’t really have a viable option unless the White Sox turn down their option on Tim Anderson. But even then, he’s coming off a horrible season in 2023 where he had a .286 on-base percentage and just one home run. The trade market could theoretically feature names like Willy Adames, Ha-Seong Kim or Tommy Edman, but their respective clubs will undoubtedly set high asking prices given the weak free agent class.

The outfield picture looks a bit better, with Jazz Chisholm Jr. in center, flanked by Bryan De La Cruz and Jesús Sánchez. With Soler opting out, there would be room to add someone and perhaps push De La Cruz into a fourth outfielder/designated hitter role, but the club also has Avisaíl García still on the roster. His past two seasons have been disasters, with injuries and poor performance making him a sub-replacement contributor. But if the club thinks it can fit another outfielder into the mix, they could perhaps make sense for Adam Duvall, Tommy Pham or Jason Heyward.

The bullpen is losing David Robertson and Matt Moore to free agency, but they were midseason pickups anyway. Overall, the group is still strong, with four viable left-handers in the bullpen. Left-handed relief tends to always be in demand, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Marlins call around to see if they can exchange one of Tanner Scott, Andrew Nardi, A.J. Puk or Steven Okert for offensive help.

Whoever is eventually hired to make the baseball decisions in Miami will have quite a to-do list. The club’s offense was fairly tepid in 2023 and could see Bell and Soler depart in the coming weeks. The Fish could use upgrades at catcher, first base, shortstop and perhaps an outfield corner, and likely won’t have a ton of money available for those pursuits. Amid all of that, the National League East is in strong shape, as Atlanta and Philadelphia are two of the best clubs in the league. The Mets had a down year in 2023 but have the resources to bounce back quickly and the Nationals will be emerging from their rebuild eventually. Although the Marlins are fresh off a postseason berth, there are plenty of questions and we don’t currently know who will be providing the answers.

In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Marlins-centric chat on 10-26-23. Click here to read the transcript.

Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

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The Astros made a seventh straight appearance in the American League Championship Series. It ended on a sour note, as consecutive home losses to their in-state rivals left them a game shy of another pennant. Houston can bring back much the same roster in hope of returning to the Fall Classic in 2024. They may have a new voice leading the clubhouse.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

  • RHP Hector Neris holds $8.5MM player option with $1MM buyout**

2024 financial commitments (assuming Neris opts out): $154.533MM
Total future commitments (assuming Neris opts out): $366.533MM

* Mets are responsible for $31.3MM of Verlander’s $43.333MM salary for 2024
** Player option is conditional on Neris passing end-of-season physical

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Non-tender candidates: None

Free Agents

The Astros claimed a third consecutive division title on the final day of the regular season. They handled the Twins to move to another ALCS. They fell just shy of the World Series, dropping their fourth home game in the ALCS against their intra-state rivals last night.

Dusty Baker was unwilling to speculate about his future in the immediate aftermath of that loss. Britt Ghiroli and Chandler Rome of the Athletic reported that the veteran skipper has been telling people both within and outside the organization that he anticipated stepping away from managing after this year. Baker won’t technically have to resign — he was on a one-year contract anyhow — but the effect would be the same. If he moves on, Houston will need to kick off a managerial search for the first time in four years.

It’s far too early to identify any kind of favorites for that (potential) opening. Bench coach Joe Espada would presumably get a long look after interviewing for various jobs elsewhere. Houston checked in on the likes of Brad Ausmus, Buck Showalter and Jeff Banister during their surprising 2020 search that ultimately landed on Baker. Much has changed in the last four seasons, of course, and it’s unclear if ownership and second-year GM Dana Brown would prioritize previous managerial experience the same way the organization had in the immediate fallout of the sign-stealing punishment.

While the coaching situation is in a state of uncertainty, the front office can keep the roster mostly intact. None of their core players are headed to free agency. Houston will see middle relievers Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek hit the market. Hector Neris could join them by declining an $8.5MM player option — assuming he passes a postseason physical, as expected — in search of another two-year deal.

Maton and Neris were solid pieces in a typically strong bullpen, which finished sixth in the majors in ERA and led MLB with a 26.3% strikeout rate. Stanek didn’t have a great 2023 campaign, although the hard-throwing righty combined for a 2.41 ERA in 123 innings between 2021-22. Their impending free agencies put some pressure on the front office to replenish the bullpen depth.

That could come by simply re-signing one or two of those pitchers. While each has a shot at a multi-year pact, none figures to land an exorbitant annual salary. If they let all three walk, they could identify a target or two in the lower tiers of free agency. Reacquiring Kendall Graveman at the deadline served as preemptive fortification of the 2024 setup core. The veteran joins Rafael Montero and Bryan Abreu as bridges to Ryan Pressly in the ninth inning.

The bullpen is light on left-handed options. That has been true for multiple seasons, though, with the Astros seemingly never placing much stock in building a relief corps they can leverage with traditional platoons. Given how effective the unit has been, they may again not care much about adding a lefty arm. If they did want to add a southpaw, someone like Andrew Chafin, Scott Alexander or Matt Moore could be available on a one-year deal.

Despite a few injuries, Houston doesn’t need to do a whole lot in the starting rotation. Justin Verlander is under contract for another season, with the Mets paying almost three-quarters of the salary to land Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford in the deadline blockbuster. Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier are locked into the second and third spots. Hunter Brown flashed big strikeout potential as a rookie. J.P. France tailed off in the second half but had a good enough rookie showing to compete for a spot at the back end.

This year was a complete loss for Lance McCullers Jr., who never made it past nagging forearm issues. He underwent a season-ending flexor tendon repair in June. The organization will have more clarity about McCullers’ status as the offseason progresses. When announcing the surgery, Dana Brown said the club envisioned the All-Star hurler returning in 2024, although he didn’t specify if McCullers is expected to be ready by Opening Day.

Luis Garcia underwent a Tommy John procedure in May. He’s unlikely to be a factor until the All-Star Break at the earliest. José Urquidy had some injury troubles of his own, missing a couple months with a shoulder strain. The righty didn’t require surgery and finished the season healthy. He had the worst numbers of his career, posting a 5.29 ERA in 63 innings after a sub-4.00 showing in each of his first four campaigns.

Perhaps the Astros are discouraged enough by Urquidy’s performance to put him on the trade market. His projected $3.5MM salary is relatively modest, so they’d find some interest. It may not be compelling enough to subtract a potential back-end arm given the uncertainties regarding Garcia and McCullers. If they deal Urquidy, they could look for a lower-variance veteran free agent in the Kyle Gibson mold to lock in a few innings.

The position player group is mostly established. Martín Maldonado and Michael Brantley are the only free agents. Multiple front office groups and coaching staffs have stuck by Maldonado despite consistently poor offense, pointing to his game-calling ability and work handling the pitching staff. It seems time for the organization to move on, however, as they have a talented younger backstop ready to take a larger role.

Yainer Diaz connected on 23 home runs while hitting .282/.308/.538 in 104 games as a rookie. The 25-year-old had been an excellent offensive player in the minors as well. Prospect evaluators have questioned how effective he’ll be defensively, but he already looks like one of the better bat-first catchers in the majors. Giving him the majority of the reps deepens the lineup.

Korey Lee was sent out in the Graveman deal, leaving the club without much catching depth beyond Diaz. Adding a veteran backup via free agency or small trade seems likely. Maldonado is a solid fit for this kind of role in isolation, although it may be tough for Houston to sell him on a true #2 job after years as their starter. If they want to go in another direction, Yasmani Grandal and Austin Hedges are impending free agents. Jacob Stallings and Christian Bethancourt could be available for a minimal trade return or non-tendered altogether.

Giving Diaz more time behind the plate clears a few at-bats in the designated hitter mix. The Astros have resisted making Yordan Alvarez a full-time DH, continuing to get him some left field reps. With Brantley heading back to free agency, they could bring in a Tommy Pham or Robbie Grossman type to play a rotational role.

Kyle Tucker is locked into right field. Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers and Mauricio Dubón are options in center field. Houston has kicked around the idea of upgrading in center field in the past, potentially moving McCormick to left while using Alvarez more heavily at DH. If they again consider that kind of move, Kevin Kiermaier and Michael A. Taylor are among the free agent options.

The infield is set. José Abreu, Jose Altuve, Jeremy Peña and Alex Bregman are locked in around the dirt. Abreu had a tough start to his three-year free agent deal, as he was one of the game’s worst players in the first two months. The veteran slugger showed signs of life in the second half and had an excellent postseason. While it wasn’t the year that Houston had envisioned, Abreu likely did enough from June onward to solidify his hold on the first base job going into 2024. Dubón and Grae Kessinger are on hand as utility options.

There doesn’t appear to be a ton of short-term payroll room for a marquee free agent pickup. If Neris opts out, Houston still has nearly $155MM in guaranteed commitments for next season. The arbitration class is projected for a combined $38.5MM salary. Aside from arguably Urquidy, everyone in that group is a key part of the roster. That puts them at roughly $193MM before considering outside additions.

That already projects as a franchise-record Opening Day outlay. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, Houston has never opened the season with a player payroll higher than $188MM; they entered this year in the $180MM range.

Barring a major spending hike, Houston probably isn’t going to make many headline-grabbing acquisitions. That’s not the worst thing in the world. They’re returning all the main contributors to what was arguably a top five roster. With just modest additions to the bullpen and at catcher, they should project alongside or above the Rangers and Mariners for the lead in the AL West.

The organization has greater longer-term payroll flexibility. Houston has only $75MM on the books for the 2025 season; if Verlander (140 innings) and Pressly (50 appearances) each hit vesting provisions next year, that could tack on another $29.5MM.

That could be important this offseason, as it seems likely the front office will engage key players on extension talks. Altuve is entering the final season of his most recent five-year deal. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale suggested over the weekend that a new contract for the star second baseman was a priority. Agreeing to a four- or five-year pact running from his age-35 season wouldn’t be without risk but would more or less ensure he spends his entire career in Houston.

Bregman is one year from the open market as well. Tucker and Valdez have two more seasons of arbitration eligibility. Shortly after his hiring, Dana Brown went on record about his desire to get long-term deals done with much of the core. Thus far, only Javier has put pen to paper. There’s likely to be more conversations with all those players, although none of the deals would be cheap. Each should command nine figures, with Tucker and Bregman likely to beat Altuve’s $151MM extension that stands as the largest contract in franchise history.

The course of extension talks is probably more notable than any players the Astros will add this winter. There’s not going to be much turnover outside the manager’s office in the coming months. They’ll get another run with this core group. How much of this team remains after 2024 and ’25 is less certain. The front office should try to continue locking in their top players as they prepare for the second half of the decade.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held an Astros-centric chat. Click here to view the transcript.

Offseason Outlook: New York Yankees

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The Yankees’ 82-80 record kept the club’s streak of winning seasons alive, but that was small consolation within a very disappointing season in the Bronx.  Some manner of unspecified changes seem to be coming within the organization, yet GM Brian Cashman and manager Aaron Boone look to be returning, as the Yankees will try to figure how (or how much) to build around an incoming wave of young talent.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Aaron Judge, OF: $320MM through 2031
  • Gerrit Cole, SP: $180MM through 2028 (Cole can opt out after 2024 season, but Yankees can overwrite opt-out by adding a $36MM salary for 2029)
  • Carlos Rodon, SP: $135MM through 2028
  • Giancarlo Stanton, OF/DH: $128MM through 2027 (includes $10MM buyout of $25MM club option for 2028; Marlins paying $30MM of Stanton’s salary as per the terms of December 2017 trade)
  • DJ LeMahieu, IF: $45MM through 2026
  • Anthony Rizzo, 1B: $23MM through 2024 (includes $6MM buyout of $17MM club option for 2025)
  • Tommy Kahnle, RP: $5.75MM through 2024

Other Financial Obligations

Total 2024 commitments: $161.25MM
Total future commitments: $856.75MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2024 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

2016 was the Yankees’ last season out of the playoffs, so it is perhaps instructive to look at how Cashman responded after that last setback.  Re-signing Aroldis Chapman and trading for Brian McCann were the two biggest moves of a relatively quiet (by Yankees standards) 2016-17 offseason, yet the club was able to rebound and reach Game 7 of the 2017 ALCS, as New York was revived by the “Baby Bombers” group that included Aaron Judge, Luis Severino, and Gary Sanchez.

The Yankees would undoubtedly love to see another youth movement blossom in 2024, especially with so much promising young talent already debuting in the big leagues.  Anthony Volpe spent 2023 as New York’s everyday shortstop, Oswald Peraza got a bit more playing time than in 2022, and Everson Pereira, Austin Wells, and Jasson Dominguez all made their Major League debuts.  Even with Dominguez out until roughly the All-Star break due to Tommy John surgery, there is plenty of optimism that at least a couple of these highly-touted youngsters can break out in 2024.

That said, it isn’t the Yankees’ style to take a step back for a development year.  The club finds itself in the tough spot of wanting or needing to find playing time for these rookies, yet also definitely needing to make a strong return to contention.  It doesn’t appear as though managing general partner Hal Steinbrenner is yet considering firing Cashman, but for Boone, 2024 is the last guaranteed year of his contract, so the manager could be on the hot seat unless the Yankees at least make it back into the postseason.

For all of these bigger-picture issues facing the Yankees, their offseason plan is perhaps pretty simple — improve the offense.  New York finished within the bottom seven of the league in total runs, OPS, OBP, batting average, and were persistently undone by an inability to get hits with runners in scoring position.  Losing Judge to a torn toe ligament for close to seven weeks didn’t help, but almost all of New York’s other hitters had down years.  Judge (174), Gleyber Torres (123), and the lightly-used Dominguez and Greg Allen were the only Yankees hitters to post even a 102 wRC+, as DJ LeMahieu was the next best of the group with a slightly above-average 101 total.

In the most optimistic of views, getting healthy seasons from Judge and Anthony Rizzo, some level of bounce-back from LeMahieu and Giancarlo Stanton, and that aforementioned breakout from one or two of the rookies could greatly improve the lineup without even any outside upgrades.  But, that is asking a lot from inexperienced players, and it might be that LeMahieu and Stanton won’t ever regain their prime form.  Given the lingering effects of Rizzo’s post-concussion syndrome, it also shouldn’t be assumed that Rizzo will suddenly be an All-Star again even with an offseason of recovery.

To some extent, the rookie crop can be a hedge against the veterans’ chances of a comeback season.  LeMahieu and Peraza could be involved in a timeshare at third base, LeMahieu could likewise get some first base time along with Rizzo, and Pereira’s ability to become an everyday left fielder could keep Stanton firmly in a DH-only role, which may be for the best at this stage of his career.

Could a trade clear some room?  Stanton’s salary and his no-trade clause make him among the most immovable players in baseball, so the Yankees would have to eat virtually all of his contract to accommodate a deal, even if Stanton did agree to a move.  LeMahieu is also a tough sell in trade talks, given the $45MM left on his contract and his own no-trade protection due to his 10-and-5 status.  Rizzo is perhaps the easiest of the trio to move since he is only under contract through the 2024 season, yet the Yankees would be selling low given the unknowns of his injury situation, and they’d be losing one of the few left-handed bats from their heavily righty-leaning lineup.

Trading Torres would also seem counter-productive, as he was the team’s second-best hitter in 2023.  Moving Torres would both open up a natural middle infield spot for Peraza (or Volpe, if he was moved to second base and Peraza took over shortstop) and it would save some money, as Torres is projected for a huge arbitration raise to $15.3MM.  While the Yankees generally don’t pursue extensions as a club policy, there hasn’t been any indication that Torres is in the team’s plans beyond 2024, which is the second baseman’s final year of arbitration eligibility prior to free agency.  Still, the Yankees might be content to just let Torres walk in free agency rather than trade him this winter and create another question mark in the lineup.

When it comes to discussing Torres’ arbitration number or the possibility of eating money on contracts, it is fair to remember that this is still the New York Yankees we’re talking about.  As much as Bronx fans might consider the team to be more conservative spenders than they were in the George Steinbrenner era, the Yankees still had baseball’s second-highest payroll in 2023.  While far too much of that payroll went towards non-productive players, a case could certainly be made that the Bombers could address their offensive woes by splurging on some of the offseason’s top free agent bats.

For instance, releasing Stanton and absorbing his contract entirely might be an easier pill to swallow for the organization if it created DH space for a generational talent like Shohei Ohtani.  Rather than entrust third base to LeMahieu and Peraza, the Yankees could sign one of Jeimer Candelario or Matt Chapman, which might then create more flexibility to trade Torres to alleviate an infield logjam.

In terms of a perfect fit for New York’s needs, Cody Bellinger checks a lot of boxes.  The former NL MVP is a left-handed hitter who could either play center field until Dominguez is healthy, split time at first base with Rizzo, or move into left field if both Dominguez and Rizzo are healthy, thus upgrading the lineup both offensively and defensively.  The Yankees had interest in Bellinger when he was a free agent last season, though that was back when he was seeking a one-year contract, not the multi-year megadeal he’ll surely command this winter.

If not Bellinger, Kevin Kiermaier or Jason Heyward could also fit as much less-expensive outfield options who are more than capable in center field.  If the Yankees wanted a left field-specific player on a one-year deal, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Michael Conforto, or a number of other options could emerge on the free agent or trade market.  Such an acquisition would perhaps limit Pereira to part-time duty, though Pereira did little to prove himself ready of a larger role given his .427 OPS over his first 103 plate appearances in the majors.  Acquiring a left-handed hitting outfielder would both help balance the lineup, and also create a platoon opportunity for the right-handed hitting Pereira.

As always, the Yankees figure to at least check in on virtually every top free agent due to their financial resources, and Cashman will also explore his options on the trade front.  As much as New York prizes its upcoming wave of prospects, a non-playoff year could make Cashman a little more aggressive in dealing from that depth for a win-now piece or two.  The Yankees figure to prioritize only trade targets with multiple years of control if they were to discuss Pereira, Volpe, or Peraza in any negotiations, unless a high-level player (i.e. Juan Soto) was perhaps made available.

One plus of retaining the rookies is that, in theory, their potential can at least raise the talent floor of the Yankees’ bench.  Isiah Kiner-Falefa was a usefully versatile player who could fill a lot of holes around the diamond, yet his lack of offense means that he isn’t likely to be re-signed.  IKF is one of several part-timers that don’t figure to return in 2024, with most as likely non-tender candidates within New York’s gigantic arbitration class.  Of that group, one of Jose Trevino or (probably more likely) Kyle Higashioka figure to be non-tendered, with the other remaining on hand to share time with Wells behind the plate.

Between the probable non-tenders and the free agent departures, roughly $39MM will be coming off the Yankees’ books.  It’s not a huge amount, and it’ll get smaller given the arbitration raises to Torres, Clay Holmes, and others.  This leaves New York with a projected luxury tax number that is already over the $237MM threshold, yet as noted earlier, it isn’t as if the Yankees were going to cut back spending….especially not after a non-playoff season.

After all of this focus on how the Yankees can improve their hitting, the pitching side can’t be ignored, as Gerrit Cole’s brilliance helped paper over some larger concerns within the rotation.  Cole will again be the team’s ace, but Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes will be trying to rebound from injury-plagued seasons, and Clarke Schmidt and Michael King are still both relatively untested as starters (though both have looked quite good at times).  To add depth, the Yankees could consider a reunion with Luis Severino or Frankie Montas on low-cost deals, though either pitcher might prefer for a fresh start with a club that provide a clearer path to rotation work.

Rodon’s struggles in his first year in the Bronx could make the Bombers a little wary about immediately signing another starter to a pricey long-term contract, yet this could still be an option this winter.  Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been heavily scouted by the Yankees and many other teams, and could be the most realistic top-tier pitching option for New York to pursue because Yamamoto is only 25 and might not even be in his prime years.  If the Yankees wanted to make a shorter-term upgrade for the front of the rotation, such arms as the Brewers’ Corbin Burnes or the Guardians’ Shane Bieber are free agents after 2024, but would naturally still some at a significant trade cost.

New York’s bullpen flew somewhat under the radar as one of the better relief units in baseball, so the Yankees could be in good shape since most of the relievers will be coming back.  Pitching coach Matt Blake and bullpen coach Mike Harkey have shown a knack for getting strong results out of a variety of pitchers (whether veterans, rookies, or unheralded acquisitions), so the Yankees don’t necessarily need any big-ticket additions to the relief corps.

Wandy Peralta posted good numbers despite some very shaky advanced metrics in 2023, and even if the Yankees pass on re-signing Peralta himself, they’ll likely seek out another southpaw to fill Peralta’s role.  Finding a replacement for King could be more difficult, as King was excellent in a multi-inning relief role last year but is going to be stretched out for a potential rotation job next year.  While King could always just return to the pen if his starting gig doesn’t work out, his value as a relief arm could be another reason for the Yankees to seek out a more seasoned starter over the winter.

For all of the ways the Yankees could be different on the field in 2024, it also seems apparent that some things need to happen behind the scenes.  Much was made earlier this month about an external audit the Yankees were planning as a top-to-bottom overview of the organization’s practices, but it remains to be seen if any changes made will translate to a return to the postseason.  Cashman’s job might not necessarily be on the line, yet the general manager is facing more public pressure than at any time during his long tenure running the Bombers’ front office.

In conjunction with this post, Mark Polishuk held a Yankees-centric chat on 10-24-23 at 1:40pm CT. Click here to read the transcript.

Offseason Outlook: Boston Red Sox

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Uncertainty seems to be the running theme of the Red Sox right now. Though they have World Series championships not too far in the rear-view mirror, recent seasons have seen them cut payroll and wind up in a middle ground between a rebuilding club and a frontline contender. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom was recently fired and the search to find his replacement hasn’t yet shed light on which direction the franchise is heading.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Rafael Devers, 3B: $313.5MM through 2033
  • Trevor Story, SS: $100MM through 2027 (includes buyout on 2028 club option; Story can opt-out after 2025 but club can negate that by picking up option)
  • Masataka Yoshida, OF: $72MM through 2027
  • Chris Sale, LHP: $27.5MM through 2024 (includes 2025 club option with no buyout)
  • Garrett Whitlock, RHP: $16.75MM through 2026 (includes buyout on 2027 club option; deal also has ’28 club option)
  • Kenley Jansen, RHP: $16MM through 2024
  • Justin Turner, IF: $13.4MM player option with $6.7MM buyout
  • Chris Martin, RHP: $7.5MM through 2024
  • Rob Refsnyder, OF: $1.85MM through 2024 (includes club option for 2025 with no buyout)

Option Decisions

2024 financial commitments (assuming no options are triggered): $129.1MM
Total future commitments (assuming no options are triggered): $555.1MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Urías, McGuire

Free Agents

If there were an award for the least consistent club in the majors, the Red Sox would be in the running. In the past 20 years, they have four World Series championships, more than any other team. But they have also finished last in the American League East six times in that stretch, including each of the two most recent campaigns.

As mentioned up top, the recent skid cost Bloom his job, which means the first order of business is to figure out who makes the decisions now. Various high-profile names have taken themselves out of the running, such as Mike Hazen, Kim Ng, Jon Daniels, James Click, Michael Hill, Derek Falvey, Sam Fuld and Brandon Gomes. Most of those executives have other commitments that would make it hard for them to consider a move to Boston, but it’s also been suggested that the appeal of the job might not be very high.

The higher-ups in Boston have given very short leashes to their executives recently. Ben Cherington was put in charge in October of 2011 but was replaced as the club’s baseball decision maker by Dave Dombrowski in August of 2015, despite the fact that the club had won the World Series in 2013. Dombrowski was then dismissed in 2019, even though he also brought a title to Boston the year prior, getting replaced by Bloom. With Bloom now out the door as well, it’s been quite a while since anyone has even lasted five years, despite the club’s many successes. It has also been suggested that the new hire won’t have much autonomy, with Álex Cora seemingly entrenched as manager and several other important jobs already filled.

It would be understandable if the gig weren’t viewed by everyone as a dream job, but there are only 30 of these to go around and there is still plenty of interest. Gabe Kapler, Craig Breslow, Thad Levine, Neal Huntington, Eddie Romero and Paul Groopman have been publicly reported to have been interviewed and it’s possible there are others who have sat down for a chat without it being leaked.

Once a hire is made, there will perhaps be more clarity on how the franchise envisions itself moving forward. But regardless of who eventually gets chosen, they will undoubtedly face challenges in improving the club’s chances going forward. The American League East doesn’t have weak spots, with each of the Orioles, Rays and Blue Jays having made the playoffs in 2023. The Yankees were bit by the injury bug and finished fourth but they will certainly be aggressive in the hopes of putting this season behind them.

Whether a hire has been made by the start of the offseason, the front office will have some formalities to attend to. Both Corey Kluber and Joely Rodríguez are sure to have their options declined after injury-marred seasons in 2023. Justin Turner figures to opt out after another strong season at the plate. $13.4MM is a strong salary for a player his age but the $6.7MM buyout means he only needs to find another $6.7MM in free agency in order to break even. The Sox will miss his bat but will likely need the designated hitter spot for other guys.

How aggressive the Sox will be for 2024 is an open question and likely won’t be answered until the front office business is complete. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the club’s payroll was one of the top five in the league for much of the century but they’ve dropped down since, settling at 12th place in 2023. Perhaps they will sign off on more spending after having reset their luxury tax status this year, but it also wouldn’t be a shock for a new exec to take a year to slow-play things and evaluate the franchise, an approach that is common.

When factoring in estimated arbitration salaries, Roster Resource pegs the club’s 2024 payroll around $167MM and their competitive balance tax figure at $187MM. Non-tendering depth infielder Luis Urías would knock those numbers down a few million, but the club isn’t too far from the $181MM payroll they had this year. They have a bit more room on the CBT side of things, with next year’s base threshold at $237MM, but it’s unclear if the club plans to spend up to or over that line.

The roster has its share of uncertainty, particularly on the pitching side of things. Chris Sale is coming off a somewhat encouraging season in 2023, as his 102 2/3 innings and 20 starts were more than he threw over 2020-2022 combined. But the results weren’t to his previous levels, with a 4.30 earned run average on the year. Perhaps he can fare better next year when he will be further from his injury struggles, but he will also turn 35 in March.

Nick Pivetta posted an ERA of 6.30 in his first eight starts and got bounced to the bullpen in May. He was able to get things back on track from there, with an ERA of 3.16 the rest of the way, finishing back in the rotation with a 4.04 ERA on the year overall. Brayan Bello made 13 appearances in 2022 but got a fuller audition in 2023, which resulted in some solid but not outstanding results. He registered a 4.24 ERA with a tepid 19.8% strikeout rate, though he limited walks and got heavy doses of ground balls.

Kutter Crawford had a 4.04 ERA this year with good peripherals, though it’s unclear if that’s sustainable since he’s never been a highly-touted prospect. Tanner Houck has shown some potential, but injuries have continually kept him in the range of 100-120 innings. The same is largely true for Garrett Whitlock, though he hasn’t even reached 100 frames since 2018.

Having six semi-plausible starting pitchers isn’t a terrible place to be in, but there isn’t much locked in, especially in the long-term. Sale is entering the final guaranteed year of his deal and Pivetta only has one arbitration season remaining. It wouldn’t be a shock to see the Sox add someone here, though it might not be a top-of-the-market name, depending on where they plan to set payroll. Pitchers like Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Aaron Nola are destined for nine-figure contracts, but the Sox could perhaps set their sights on arms like Sonny Gray or old friend Eduardo Rodriguez. Beyond them are veteran bounceback candidates like Marcus Stroman, Jack Flaherty or Lucas Giolito.

The bullpen has a bit more clarity, with veterans Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin each having another year remaining on their respective deals. Josh Winckowski, John Schreiber and Brennan Bernardino have shown promise to varying degrees and should have the inside track for jobs on next year’s club. That still leaves plenty of room for a free agent addition, though any investment here could be on the modest side with Jansen and Martin already giving the club strong high-leverage options. On the other hand, if the new front office decides to make 2024 a sort of evaluation year, maybe Jansen or Martin find themselves on the trade block.

On the position player side of things, the catcher position is probably the most wide open. The Sox gave plenty of runway for Connor Wong and Reese McGuire in 2023, though neither of them took firm hold of the job. They each posted a matching wRC+ of 78 with so-so defensive grades. Wong was great with the running game but poor in terms of blocking and framing, whereas McGuire was generally middling across the board.

Investing in a veteran backstop and non-tendering McGuire would be sensible, though the free agent options aren’t terribly exciting. Mitch Garver and Tom Murphy have strong bats but generally struggle to stay healthy. Austin Hedges and Martín Maldonado have strong reputations as defenders and pitching staff leaders but they’re both poor hitters. Gary Sánchez is arguably the best of the bunch but his half season in San Diego was strong enough that he may have played himself into a two-year deal. The trade route could feature unproven options like Joey Bart or Iván Herrera.

The infield is half set, with Rafael Devers having third base spoken for. He will likely require a move to first base at some point since his defense isn’t strong at the hot corner, but his offense continues to be excellent and he’s under contract for another decade. Whenever it’s time to move over to first, it could be a bit tricky since Triston Casas seems to have established himself over there. He has 29 home runs in his first 159 major league games and has walked at a 14.9% clip, but his glovework isn’t strong either, perhaps leading him and Devers to someday co-exist via the designated hitter slot. But for the time being, it seems fair to expect them to stay on opposite corners.

The middle infield is far more up-in-the-air, with the investment in Trevor Story yet to pay dividends. He hit at a league-average level in 2022 and then required elbow surgery in the winter, not returning to the big leagues until August of 2023. The results were grim, as he struck out in 32.7% of his plate appearances and didn’t do much impact when he put the ball in play. His wRC+ of 48 was one of the 10 worst in the majors, minimum 160 plate appearances, with mostly catchers and bench players around him on that list. The club has little choice but to hope that Story gets back on track, given the four years left on his deal.

As for his double play partner, that’s also a question. The club has taken chances on a number of light-hitting utility guys of late, with the list including Urías, Yu Chang, Pablo Reyes, Hoy Park and Christian Arroyo. Of that group, only Reyes and Urías remain. The latter seems likely to be non-tendered after a rough season and Reyes is best suited for a bench/depth role. David Hamilton and Enmanuel Valdéz are present as optionable depth options.

The club could certainly pursue middle infield help but the options there aren’t great either. Whit Merrifield, Adam Frazier and Amed Rosario are arguably better second basemen than what the Sox currently have in-house, but each are coming off fairly unremarkable seasons.

In the outfield, Jarren Duran had a breakout season in 2023, with a .346 on-base percentage and 24 stolen bases. Even though his season was ended by toe surgery, he should be pencilled into the center field spot, at least as the strong side of a platoon. Alex Verdugo had another passable season, with offense around league average and strong defense. He figures to be in right field, though he also stands out as a possible trade candidate in his final arbitration season with a projected salary of $9.2MM. Masataka Yoshida showed some encouraging signs with his contact-heavy approach resulting in a 109 wRC+ in his first MLB season. The defense was poor, as was expected, though perhaps the Sox are comfortable using their small left field and the DH spot to diminish the effects of his glovework. Long-term, it’s not ideal to have three poor defenders battling for the DH position in Yoshida, Devers and Casas, but it’s semi-workable for now. Rob Refsnyder will be in the outfield mix as a short-side platoon guy.

Younger options could be pushing for time in that outfield mix this year, as each of Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela got into 28 big league games this year. Abreu fared better in those, but it’s too small of a sample to draw broad conclusions from. Roman Anthony is considered by some to be a Top 100 talent and has reached Double-A, perhaps putting a 2024 debut on the table. Miguel Bleis is also a highly-regarded prospect but is further away.

There may be glimmers of hope for the farm to help out at other positions as well, with catcher Kyle Teel having just been selected 14th overall in the most recent draft. Shortstop Marcelo Mayer is a consensus Top 100 guy and second baseman Nick Yorke has been on some of those lists as well. Each of those three got to Double-A in 2023 and won’t be too far from the majors.

Despite all the uncertainty, there are many things to like about this Boston club. They just went 78-84 in the toughest division in the league, with a run differential of -4. It would only take modest improvements to get them into contention for a playoff spot.

Perhaps a new hire would like to take a year to get more looks at young players like Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Anthony, Teel, Mayer and Yorke. There’s plenty of money coming off the books after 2024, with Sale, Jansen, Martin, Pivetta and Verdugo all potential free agents. Maybe some of those guys end up getting moved this winter, freeing up roster space for younger guys. They need help at catcher and in the middle infield, but there aren’t obvious solutions available in free agency and the Sox have possible long-term solutions in the pipeline.

All things considered, the ship isn’t in terrible shape. But as of right now, it’s unclear who is steering it, which direction they’re going or how fast they’ll be allowed to head there. There’s plenty of fog on the horizon but perhaps things will clear up soon.

In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Red Sox-centric chat on 10-24-23. Click here to read the transcript.

Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays

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The Rays continued their impressive run of success while working with limited funds. Despite having one of the lowest payrolls in the league, they made the playoffs for a fifth straight season in 2023. Their offseasons generally see plenty of roster turnover, but it’s possible they spend a little bit more this winter in order to keep the gang together.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Wander Franco, SS: $174MM through 2032 (includes buyout on 2033 club option)
  • Zach Eflin, RHP: $29MM through 2025
  • Jeffrey Springs, LHP: $27MM through 2026 (includes buyout on 2027 club option)
  • Tyler Glasnow, RHP: $25MM through 2024
  • Yandy Díaz, IF: $18MM through 2025 (includes 2026 club option with no buyout)
  • Manuel Margot, OF: $12MM through 2024 (includes buyout on 2025 club option)
  • Brandon Lowe, IF: $9.75MM through 2024 (includes buyout on 2024 club option; deal also has club option for ’25)
  • Pete Fairbanks, RHP: $8.48MM through 2025 (includes buyout on 2026 club option)

Option Decisions

  • None

2024 financial commitments: $76.82MM
Total future commitments: $303.23MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Tapia, Beeks, Bethancourt, Sulser, Fleming

Free Agents

The 2023 campaign started out incredibly strong for the Rays, with the club winning its first 13 games and jumping out to a big lead in the American League East. But the injuries mounted as the season went along, forcing the club to limp into the playoffs via a Wild Card spot before getting euthanized by the Rangers, as Texas outscored them 11-1 in the two-game sweep.

This would normally be the time where speculation would turn to which players the club will trade before the next season. Given their tight budgets, the Rays generally operate by trading players as they get more expensive and closer to free agency, with Tommy Pham and Blake Snell being some of the examples from recent years. It’s possible that this offseason will be different, as president of baseball operations Erik Neander recently said that the club might move the payroll up in order to limit the turnover. That’s partially related to their new stadium funding deal, which is kind of sort of almost official.

Time will tell whether that comes to fruition or to what extent. The data at Cot’s Baseball Contracts has never seen them push beyond the $80MM range in terms of an Opening Day payroll, but Roster Resource estimates their 2024 payroll to be around $125MM right now. A few of their 16 arbitration-eligible players will surely end up non-tendered, which will cut into that number a bit, but it will still take a substantial payroll increase if the club legitimately wants to keep the roster intact.

Even if there aren’t a lot of changes this winter, there would still be question marks, particularly on the pitching staff. Each of Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen and Shane McClanahan required elbow surgery in 2023, with each of their respective recoveries expected to carry into next year. Springs underwent Tommy John in April and is probably out until the middle of 2024, even in a best-case scenario. Rasmussen had the slightly milder internal brace procedure in July, which puts him out of action until at least midseason as well. McClanahan had TJS later in the year and is expected to miss all of 2024 as a result.

There are some names that can be pencilled into next year’s rotation, as each of Zach Eflin and Tyler Glasnow are under contract. They both have fairly spotty injury histories but they were each largely healthy in 2023. Aaron Civale didn’t finish strong but has a solid track record and can be retained via arbitration.

After that, things get less certain. Shane Baz missed all of 2023 recovering from his Tommy John surgery and should be healthy enough for next year, but he may have workload concerns. He only pitched 40 innings in 2022 between the majors and minors, and 92 the year before. There were no minor leagues in 2020 due to the pandemic and Baz was largely in short-season ball before that, meaning he’s yet to reach 100 innings in a season.

Zack Littell was gradually stretched out as the 2023 season wore on, similar to Springs and Rasmussen in previous years, though the results weren’t quite as emphatic. Littell tossed 87 innings as a Ray with a 3.93 ERA but striking out just 19.8% of opponents. His 2.5% walk rate in that time was excellent but is probably unsustainable in the long run. Amongst qualified pitchers this year, only George Kirby limited free passes at that rate.

Taj Bradley is on the depth chart as well, though he’s not a sure thing. He came into 2023 as one of the top pitching prospects in the league but posted an ERA of 5.59 in his first 104 2/3 innings. He won’t turn 23 years old until March and can certainly still put it together, but there’s clearly more development needed.

The club is generally unafraid to be creative in constructing its pitching staff, frequently deploying bullpen games or openers to get through a season. Perhaps they feel this group gives them enough of a rotation to start the year, with Springs and Rasmussen options to jump in later in the season. If that doesn’t come to fruition, reinforcements could always be found at the deadline.

In the bullpen, the club generally does a good job of finding quality arms without paying too much, and that could be the case again next year. Each of Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adam, Colin Poche, Andrew Kittredge and Shawn Armstrong had an ERA of 3.09 or lower in 2023. Fairbanks is already under contract for around $3.82MM next year and none of the other four are projected to catch him via the arbitration process.

On the position player side of things, the shortstop position is a giant question mark given ongoing investigation into Wander Franco’s alleged inappropriate relationships with underage girls. It’s a fairly unprecedented situation and it’s unclear how long it will take to be resolved, but the club will likely operate under the assumption that they can’t rely on him. That likely leaves some combination of Taylor Walls, Osleivis Basabe and Junior Caminero covering the position, with Carson Williams perhaps debuting at some point later in the year.

Brandon Lowe, Isaac Paredes, Yandy Díaz and Harold Ramírez should be able to cover the non-shortstop positions, with Curtis Mead and Jonathan Aranda in the mix as well. The outfield mix seems solid with Randy Arozarena, Josh Lowe, Jose Siri, Manuel Margot and Luke Raley all slated to be back.

Catcher is a bit less certain, as Christian Bethancourt took a step back from a solid 2022 season. René Pinto got a decent amount of playing time down the stretch and held his own, so perhaps the club is content to give him a shot to take over as the lead backstop and bump Bethancourt to the backup role or cut him loose.

That still gives the club a strong core, but it’s also fair to wonder what kind of cuts may be coming. It’s not a guarantee that the payroll is going to suddenly get a 50% jump from the $80MM range to the $120MM range, so we might still see some classic Rays trades designed at saving some money and continually restocking the farm. Even if they do have that kind of money, it might be prudent to free some of it up in order to pursue upgrades to the starting staff or behind the plate.

Trading one of those arbitration relievers could still leave them with a solid bullpen, for instance. Arozarena is already set to make a projected $9MM, with two arbitration seasons after that. He’s still a bargain at that price but the Rays have shown that these kinds of players usually get dealt before reaching free agency. Ramírez hits well but is a poor defender, only getting 13 starts as a fielder in 2023. $4.4MM is still a good price for a solid bat but a Rays team that loves versatility could probably find a way to live without him. Lowe (Brandon, not Josh) is now just one year away from the end of his deal, perhaps allowing the club to make him available and replace him from within. Margot might be squeezed in that outfield picture a bit. He wouldn’t have a ton of trade value as a glove-first player with mounting injury concerns and declining defensive grades, but his deal has just one year and $12MM remaining. Many fans of rival clubs might look to Glasnow’s $25MM salary and dream of getting him out of Tampa, but the club probably can’t afford to thin out their starting depth any further.

Moving any of those players could help with the depleted starting staff, perhaps in a direct way by bringing pitching back the other way. Shane Bieber, Cal Quantrill and Paul Blackburn are some pitchers speculated to be available. The White Sox seem to be planning on contending, but Dylan Cease would be a logical trade chip if they pivot. The same goes from Griffin Canning and Patrick Sandoval of the Angels or Mitch Keller of the Pirates. Perhaps the Mariners feel they have enough pitching to part with Logan Gilbert or Bryan Woo while still contending.

Or perhaps the Rays will trade for prospects and then use the new payroll space to pursue a free agent pitcher. They wouldn’t be likely to shop at the top of the market, of course, but a targeted strike similar to last year’s Eflin deal wouldn’t be totally shocking. Perhaps they feel they can get the best out of someone like Jack Flaherty, since they almost acquired him at the deadline. Lucas Giolito, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha or Sean Manaea should be similarly in that mid-rotation or back-end batch of free agents.

The Rays are often a tough team to project, given their willingness to churn the roster perhaps more than any other club, even if that means moving star players. The comments from Neander suggest this winter might be different, but it’s tough to accept that at face value when it contradicts their established modus operandi. However it plays out, the Rays are starting from a decent position. Their departing free agents are mostly relief pitchers, leaving most of their 99-win team intact for now. The starting pitching looks a bit flimsy but that’s been the case in the past and the Rays always seem to find a way to wriggle to success regardless.

In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Rays-centric chat on 10-20-23. Click here to read the transcript.

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