Up until a couple of weeks ago, the Yankees seemed to have an extremely strong group of five starting pitchers. With Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, Luis Severino, Nestor Cortes and Frankie Montas penciled in, the club had arguably the best rotation in the entire league. Unfortunately, the shoulder issues that plagued Montas last year are still lingering and he is going to miss the first month of the season. They still have an excellent front four but will now have to rely on their depth to start the season. Even if Montas is able to return to health and looks like his old self by May, it’s possible that one of the other four will need a breather and there will be continued opportunities for other pitchers. Teams almost never make it through an entire season using just five or six starters, meaning depth is always important.
Who does the club have on hand that could step up to fill in for Montas or any other injury? Let’s take a look at the options.
Germán, 30, is probably the most obvious and straightforward solution. He seemed to establish himself as part of the club’s future rotation in 2019 when he tossed 143 innings with a 4.03 ERA, 27.2% strikeout rate, 8.8% walk rate and 38.1% ground ball rate. But in September of that year, he was placed on administrative leave while the league investigated him for domestic violence. He ultimately received an 81-game suspension and flirted with retirement while serving it but ultimately returned.
In 2021, he was able to toss 98 1/3 innings over 18 starts and four relief appearances. He posted a 4.58 ERA while striking out 23.9% of opponents. Last year, shoulder problems sent him to the 60-day injured list in March and he wasn’t reinstated until July. He ultimately made 14 starts and one relief appearance, posting a 3.61 ERA in 72 1/3 innings. His strikeout rate dipped to just 19.5% and opponents hit just .262 on balls in play. That latter number is well below league average but not far off from his career mark of .272. It’s possible that he just has a knack for limiting damage but Statcast data doesn’t support that. He was in the 26th percentile last year in terms of hard hit rate and 25th in average exit velocity, though he was in the 57th for barrel rate. It’s possible that he would struggle to maintain an ERA under 4.00 but he avoids walks and would still be much better than the fifth/sixth starter on most teams.
Schmidt, 27 next month, was a first round pick of the Yanks in 2017. He pitched well as he moved up the minor league ladder and was considered one of the top 100 prospects in the league by Baseball America in 2020 and 2021. He’s had some brief time in the majors but his overall workload hasn’t been huge over the past couple of years. With the minors being canceled by the pandemic in 2020, he was limited to just 6 1/3 innings of official action in the majors. In 2021, an elbow strain kept him out of action for a while and he was only able to log another 6 1/3 in the bigs along with 38 minor league innings. Last year, he was frequently optioned and recalled, throwing 57 2/3 frames in the majors along with 33 in Triple-A, combining for 90 2/3 on the season.
When healthy enough to take the mound, he’s produced pretty solid results. His 70 1/3 innings at the MLB level have resulted in a 3.71 ERA, 22.5% strikeout rate, 10.7% walk rate and 44.6% ground ball rate. His minor league work has been even better, as he’s posted a 2.71 ERA over 71 innings in the past two years. He struck out out 31% of batters faced and walked 7.1% of them while getting ground balls on about half of balls in play. There are some things to like here but he still has an option whereas Germán doesn’t. Given that fact and his workload concerns, he might get nudged to Triple-A until a need arises.
García, 24 in May, flashed some potential in 2020 when he made six starts with a 4.98 ERA. That number might not jump out, but he was only 21 years old at the time, perhaps pointing to an enticing future with continued development. Unfortunately, that hasn’t come to fruition. In the two subsequent years, he’s only made a couple of big league starts while registering a 6.87 ERA in 154 2/3 minor league innings. He’s still young but he’s now out of options. Given his poor results in recent years, he could be given a long relief role in the bullpen or else designated for assignment.
Gil, 25 in June, has a 3.78 ERA through his first seven MLB starts but he’s not going to be available for a while. He underwent Tommy John in May of last year and won’t be a realistic candidate until midseason at the earliest. Like García, he’s now out of options and will need to either crack the active roster or else be designated for assignment. He’ll be able to pitch in the minors as part of a rehab assignment once healthy, but it will be decision time once the 30-day rehab period is up.
Vazquez, 24, has spent his entire career with the Yanks thus far, signing with them as an international free agent in 2018. He’s since moved his way up and spent all of last year in Double-A. He made 25 starts at that level, tossing 115 1/3 innings with a 3.90 ERA. He struck out 24.2% of batters faced while walking 8.3% and getting grounders at a 48.3% clip. He was added to the club’s roster in November to prevent him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. He’s currently considered the club’s #9 prospect at Baseball America but has yet to pitch at the Triple-A level.
Krook, 28, is a left-hander that was drafted by the Giants but went to the Rays in the Evan Longoria deal. The Yankees grabbed him in the minor league portion of the 2020 Rule 5 draft. He’s since posted some solid results in the upper minors, though the control hasn’t been pinpoint. He spent last year at Triple-A, making 22 starts and seven relief appearances with a 4.09 ERA over 138 2/3 innings. He walked 12.1% of batters faced but struck out 25.7% and got grounders at a 55.7% clip. That was enough for the Yanks to add him to the roster at season’s end to prevent him from reaching minor league free agency.
Brito, 25 next month, has spent his entire career in the Yankees’ organization, having been signed by them as an international amateur out of the Dominican Republic. He split last year between Double-A and Triple-A, tossing 112 2/3 innings over 23 starts and three relief appearances. He only struck out 20% of batters faced but kept his walks down to a 7.7% level and got grounders on about half the balls he allowed into play. Like Krook, he was added to the club’s 40-man at the end of the season to prevent him from reaching minor league free agency.
Gomez, 23, was an international signee out of Venezuela, agreeing with the Yankees in 2016. He earned his way onto prospect lists over the next few years and got a spot on the 40-man in November of 2020 to protect him from Rule 5 selection. Unfortunately, injuries have limited him over the past couple of seasons. In 2021, he dealt with a shoulder issue and contracted COVID-19, ultimately only making nine starts on the year at Class-A. In 2022, he spent time at various levels and finished the year at Double-A, but was only able to log 47 innings on the year. The results were good, as he posted a 2.49 ERA while striking out 25.7% of batters faced, but it will be hard for him to carry a huge workload after pitching very little in recent years.
Clayton Beeter/Sean Boyle/Mitch Spence/Tanner Tully
None of this group are currently on the 40-man roster, meaning they will face longer odds of contributing this year, though they could always force the club into making room. Beeter is arguably the most exciting of the bunch. Selected 66th overall by the Dodgers in 2020, he was ranked that club’s #12 prospect by Baseball America going into 2022. That was after a 2021 season that saw him post a 3.44 ERA between High-A and Double-A while striking out 36.6% of batters faced. In 2022, his ERA jumped to 5.75 as he walked 14.3% of batters faced, but he was then flipped to the Yankees in the Joey Gallo trade. After the deal, he got his walks down to 10.6% and his ERA to 2.13. He struck out an incredible 37.1% of batters faced on the year between the two teams but only threw 77 innings.
External Addition
If the Yankees feel these depth options aren’t enough, they could always look outside the organization for help. The free agent market still features guys like Michael Wacha, Dylan Bundy and Zack Greinke. In terms of trades, it’s possible the Mariners might be willing to move Marco Gonzales or Chris Flexen. The Brewers are suddenly loaded in rotation options and could theoretically do without Adrian Houser. However, all of those paths come with a complication for the Yankees, who are reportedly leery about crossing the final tier of the competitive balance tax. Roster Resource currently pegs their CBT figure at $292.3MM, just a hair under the final line of $293MM. Making any external addition without making up that difference will be a challenge. Trading the contract of someone like Josh Donaldson or Aaron Hicks would give them some more breathing room but the Yanks haven’t been able to find a deal so far.
Do they do contingent trades such that a team gets more if a player performs better than if he crashes? It may be a way to ensure a team isn’t selling high and trying to dump damaged goods.
Like a refund/exchange policy? It’s final sale and every team should do their own due diligence on a player’s medicals. No exceptions including Montas.
The 5th spot in the Yankee rotation will either be German or Schmidt while Montas is hurting, like I said the other day the Yankees starting pitching is not the problem. The Yankees need two lefthanded contact hitters, one with speed that could lead off(Florial )would be fine.
If they are serious about winning they should sign Trevor Bauer. If German is still there, no reason Bauer shouldn’t be.
The Yankees are solid on pitching unless something very unexpected happens.
Well, Luis Castillo would’ve been really nice, but they wanted Volpe & Cashman said no. Cashman did offer Jasson Dominguez, however, so I can’t fault him for not offering enough (not that Dominguez is enough, but he didn’t try to offer nobodies).
Anyway, I really hope Cashman is right with the Volpe evaluation because if he isn’t, the players he’s passed on because of that evaluation would sink his career with most Yankees fans. He has arguably bet several seasons of the team’s success on Volpe (and others) now.
Nonetheless, I am satisfied that he did actually try to get Castillo with a legitimate offer, albeit clearly not the best offer.
I’m never high on prospects, Clip, bc the jump from AAA to MLB is greater than that of any level of advancement in the minors. I really do hope that Volpe pans out. The Yankees have taken a pass on a ton of free agent SS talent with IKF as a placeholder.
SS is overvalued. The Yankees could simply start Peraza at SS rather than bring back IKF for $6mil.
Agreed Bright Side. It’s odd that they’re almost keeping IKF as a fallback option (again) for SS just in case the two don’t work out. Very, very curious move. I think he has great value as a UTL guy, but only as a UTL guy.
We’ll see in ST. Peraza only has 49 MLB ABs.
Yeah, YBC, I do agree that Peraza is so green we have no idea what we are getting on offense. Relying so heavily on Peraza, Volpe and others causes me great consternation. Cashman better be right or he has single-handedly created the hurdle that the Yankees could not overcome. IKF is not a starting SS though, imo, regardless of the outcome with Peraza.
I think the Yankees are lucky that Cincy rejected the offer of Dominguez.
“After spending the regular season in Class-A ball, he got promoted just before the Double-A playoffs, where he hit .450/.560/.950 with three home runs, 10 RBI and five walks in five games. In the championship game, Dominguez finished 3-for-4, homered from both sides of the plate and knocked in six runs. Altogether in 2022, Dominguez hit 16 homers, stole 37 bases and finished with an OPS of .837.”
If he stays healthy, I expect Jasson to be a special player. I hope Volpe is too, but homering from both sides of the plate in a championship game? I’m not trading that if I can help it.
Yeah, the future will tell if he’s real or fake, but they very well could’ve saved Cashman from himself on that one. I’m just glad to see he’s actually going for it with certain trades. I don’t often credit his moves (because I don’t often agree with them) but he’s going after some really good people with legit offers.
If these prospects turn out anything close to their reps Cashman is going to look like a genius. If they’re busts, he’s going to look like a complete moron.
Speaking of….Boone couldn’t be more tone deaf. In the city where he’s managing the most important and recognizable NY team and failing to win, he comfortably sits atop a podium where he professes his love for the Eagles and then happily predicts they’re going to crush the Giants. Read the room bro!
I cannot wait until Aaron Boone is gone. Perhaps he could glean some managing tips from the Eagles coaching staff on how to win? Possibly he could glean tips on how to play the best players in their own positions? He should be in Philly where he really wants to be.
I think you’re going to have to wait a while before Boone is gone. It takes a lot to lose your job with this franchise unless you’re low on the totem pole like a coach.
In all honesty, I hoped the Giants would win but knew that the Eagles had the better team and the odds in their favor. But if I were the manager of the Yankees I’d have kept my mouth shut about it.
Yeah like trying to get fired from a State job, it’s really hard to do, once you’re in.
Yes I agree with you Fink, I would expect Dominguez to be our starting centerfielder in the next year and a half or 2 years. Yes he went on a tear right after the trading deadline, something tells me he was excited to stay with the Yankees. Glad Dominguez is still here, and so are the Yankees. Expect Oswald Peraza playing shortstop to hit .275-280-15-20 homers next season if he’s playing regularly, and giving gold glove defense. Glad we kept him also.
Time will tell, if Volpe and Peraza are core players in 2 years, Cashman made the right decision. Castillo was actually better after he was traded, while Montas wasn;t. Montas also had a history of pitching well again;st the Astros. I think there is a good chance that Volpe, Peraza, Dominguez, Jones, and Periera could end up as core players as much as that sounds crazy for the Yanks. It will be interesting to see if wave starts this season with Peraza winning the starting SS position.
The Yankees don’t have the best rotation in NYC…let alone in all of MLB.
A case can be made for Verlander and Scherzer > Cole and Rodon (but not by much) but three through five is where the Yankees are decidedly better.
Assuming Montas can pitch in pinstripes. His 2022 was a little reminiscent of Sonny Gray and Ed Whitson
@ExileInLA 2- Who does the Dodgers? Smh
Starting 5 looks good and the bullpen will be a strength again, but if any starters miss significant time it could be trouble. Alot of unproven pitching to rely on for innings.
Doesn’t that apply to just about every rotation of a contending team?
Excluding the Dodgers and Astros, and maybe Brewers and Guardians, yeah.
I see four solid starters on the Brewers with no depth behind them. With free agent losses, the Dodgers are not deep in starting pitching. The Guardians had 3 above average starters last year. Did they sign an ace I didn’t catch? Houston now has two above average starters without Verlander. The truth is the two deepest rotations in baseball are now in New York. Flip a coin or let the season play out to see which is number one.
I actually think that the Yankee bullpen is very weak compared to who they were throwing up the past 6-7 seasons. No real closer as of right now, which is what I think the Yankees need if they want to go anywhere this year. The Chapman, Miller, Betances, Britton 1234 was probably the best relief staff in baseball for the past decade of any team. I don’t think Clay Holmes is a viable closer, more of a 7th inning guy. The Yankee’s strength in their bullpen is Holmes, King, and then it gets iffy from there after down seasons from Abreu and Loasigia
It’s a 90 win staff. However, the rotation’s performance against an elite rotation 1:1 eye test scenario is at best ALDS L.
Stick with German. If Montas stays hurt, they can try to sign him to a pillow contract for ’24.
@larkraxm
German and Schmidt can handle any starting opportunities while Montas rehabs from his injury. A bigger question is what do the Yankees do if Montas cannot come back healthy this season. That would be a drag. Still like their in house options better than the likes of Wacha, Bundy and Co.
Agreed, we are only talking about 4 or 5 starts.
Off-topic observation: the website “ClutchPoints” looks like it’s produced by and for 12-year-olds.
Is it baseball related ?
Go to the website. You’ll see. They’re fond of silly graphics.
Too much emphasis is placed on strikeouts as IMO it causes additional stress on the pitcher’s arm and brain. In some cases, overthrowing and trying to be perfect causes injuries. Comparing various other rates again IMO have variables that make them less important than they appear. For example, Red Sox pitchers benefitted greatly when their outfield was Benny, JBJ and Mookie but they were hurt by having an overall poor infield defense. Add in other variables such as ball parks, the home plate umpire and weather conditions and you need to use your eyes. Some pitchers get squeezed by the umps especially when their young. If the league clamps down or moves to electronics for calling pitches, it will affect many. Thus, the eye test is so underappreciated today.
And who does??? Those old geezers in Queens???
The Yankees will get by. First month of the season has some off days, there are people they can throw out there, and this isn’t nearly the crisis it’s being made out to be. That said, the Montas deal was questionable from the start, and looking worse daily. I don’t want to relegate him to Frank Pavano status, but a return to the mound with quality innings would be desirable, if not likely.
Their pitching isn’t the issue. It’s their offense, or lack thereof. Oh and Buffoon as the manager too
It’s not Aaron Hick’s fault that stupid A#% Aaron Boone kept putting him in the line-up. I think Mattingly should have been our manager.
It might not be Boone’s fault either. He didn’t give Hicks a 6-year $70 million contract. The guy who did might be forcing Boone to play Hicks. We’ll probably never know.
Doesn’t matter to me. Boone signed the line-up card! I know that those decisions are made as a leadership team, and they probably don’t let Boone choose the spot for dinner on his own. The Yankees aren’t the Brewers. 10 million a year is what they should pay a fourth or fifth outfielder. Hicks is fine for depth or spelling the real LF for a game or two, but dude played in 130 games last year! Unacceptable!
You’re preaching to the choir, my man:
mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/brian-cashman-discusses…
@Yanks2- I agree with you here, on all accounts.
So…you want to dump Donaldson?
What do the Tigers get for taking on ~$30M?
Wells, Jones? That’s a lot of money….you want something back? So many players to be involved….messy. I think it’s all press.
any yankee fans with insight into what happened to garcia? he looked like the real deal
He got hurt. He had an injury to his pitching arm and went on the IL at the end of May last year. There was also some talk about him losing “confidence”, but it seemed related to the injury? He is 23 years old, and the organization is still hopeful that he can be a contributor.