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Archives for May 2023

Mariners Notes: Caballero, Wong, Moore, Bullpen

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Rookie infielder Jose Caballero’s initial call-up to the Mariners’ roster was expected to be a short-term stint to provide some depth while utilityman Sam Haggerty dealt with a concussion, but he’s parlaying that opportunity into a larger role. As Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times writes, he’s already made a strong impression on manager Scott Servais.

“From the day he showed up here, he was not in awe of anything,” Servais said of Caballero, going on to praise the 26-year-old’s baserunning, on-base ability and defense. “…He understands how to play and he doesn’t back off.” President of baseball ops Jerry Dipoto had similar praise, telling Corey Brock of The Athletic that Caballero “has been terrific in every way.”

Caballero has indeed impressed, surging out to a .276/.371/.431 batting line with a pair of homers, three doubles and a 6-for-6 showing on the basepaths through his first 24 games (70 plate appearances). He’s had a bit of good fortune on balls in play (.333), but even if his average took a slight step back, an 11.4% walk rate would keep his on-base percentage plenty strong.

The plate discipline hasn’t been a small-sample fluke, either; Caballero has a career 13% walk rate in the minors and has chased pitches off the plate at a lower rate than the average big leaguer thus far in his young career. Statcast also credits him with 92nd percentile sprint speed, so there’s good reason to believe he can keep swiping bags at a high rate of success.

Caballero’s immediate strong play further shines a light on the mounting struggles of veteran second baseman Kolten Wong, whose .177/.259/.208 batting line (108 plate appearances, 40 wRC+) ranks among the worst in baseball. Wong’s 20.4% strikeout rate is the worst of his career, and he’s making hard contact at career-worst levels as well (85 mph average exit velo, 24% hard-hit). Statcast ranks Wong in the fifth percentile of MLB players or lower in each of hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, barrel rate, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage and expected wOBA. His once plus sprint speed is down to the 37th percentile as well.

In the wake of such a miserable start to the season, Wong has already begun to cede time at second base to Caballero. The rookie has made five starts at second base since Wong’s name was last penciled into the starting lineup. Wong has been on the bench, but the Mariners will have to figure out how to align their infield and bench mix before long. Mariners GM Justin Hollander told reporters yesterday that utilityman Dylan Moore could be reinstated from the injured list during the team’s current homestand (Twitter link via Divish).

Moore, who over the winter signed a three-year, $8.875MM contract that bought his final arbitration seasons and one free-agent year, has yet to play in 2023 due to oblique and core injuries. He’s played in four minor league rehab games, however, and the team apparently believes he could be back on the big league roster with only a few more. The current homestand runs through May 31.

The 30-year-old Moore has had  an up-and-down run with the Mariners since debuting in 2019, alternating between poor and strong showings at the plate on an every-other-year basis. He’s a career .208/.317/.384 hitter, though as evidenced by a .255/.358/.496 showing in 159 plate appearances in 2020 and a .224/.368/.385 line in 255 plate appearances last year, he has plenty of on-base ability and some pop in his bat. Moore has 35 home runs and 65 steals in 381 career games, and he’s drawn outstanding defensive ratings at second base, third base and in both outfield corners.

Seattle’s bench currently consists of backup catcher Tom Murphy, the aforementioned Haggerty (who has had minimal playing time so far) and struggling veterans Wong and AJ Pollock. Barring an injury elsewhere in the lineup, it’s likely someone from that bench group will be displaced by Moore’s return. Haggerty has minor league options remaining, and that route would preserve more depth, but he batted .256/.335/.403 last season in 201 plate appearances, showing plenty of defensive versatility himself. The Mariners will have to weigh that against the poor starts of both Wong and Pollock in determining their preferred course of action.

The Mariners are also anticipating a return to health for some important bullpen arms (Twitter links via Divish). Closer Andres Munoz and righty Penn Murfee are both expected to join the Mariners on their upcoming road trip, which runs from June 1-11. Munoz has been throwing bullpen sessions, and Murfee has responded well to a platelet-rich plasma injection. Both will need quick tune-ups on minor league rehab stints, but they’re only a matter of weeks away.

Munoz, 24, broke out as one of the best relievers in baseball in 2022 when he pitched to a 2.49 ERA with a stellar 38.7% strikeout rate against a 6% walk rate. He averaged a whopping 100.3 mph on his heater, and his 21.6% swinging-strike rate trailed only Edwin Diaz among all big league pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched.

Murfee, meanwhile, has pitched 82 1/3 innings of 2.73 ERA ball dating back to last year’s MLB debut. He’s fanned 27.9% of his opponents against an 8.3% walk rate without displaying the type of platoon splits that many fellow sidearmers tend to carry. Lefties have batted just .210/.297/.305 against Murfee, while right-handers have posted an even more dreadful .165/.232/.303 slash.

Red Sox Notes: Kluber, Bleier, Infield

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Boston’s offseason signing of veteran right-hander Corey Kluber hasn’t gone nearly as well as hoped, evidenced by the 37-year-old’s 6.26 ERA through seven trips to the hill thus far. The two-time AL Cy Young winner’s 17.7% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate are both career-worsts, as is his 88.6 mph average fastball. Kluber is in the 21st percentile of MLB pitchers or lower in terms of strikeout rate, opponents’ average exit velocity and opponents’ hard-hit rate. His lone quality start of the season came on April 25 in Baltimore.

The Red Sox have stuck with the right-hander through his struggles, and manager Alex Cora indicated over the weekend that Kluber will make his next scheduled start on the road against the D-backs, writes Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic. That’ll mean the Red Sox will continue with a six-man rotation of Chris Sale, James Paxton, Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, a returning Garrett Whitlock — he’s expected to be activated from the injured list for Saturday’s start — and Kluber. However, Cora declined to commit to the permanence of that arrangement (or lack thereof). Asked if that group would continue to start for the foreseeable future, Cora replied: “For the foreseeable week, let’s put it that way.”

Whether the Sox would pull the plug on Kluber’s tenure entirely or look to move him to the bullpen, as they did with Nick Pivetta, is likely still being determined by the team’s front office. Certainly, the hope would be for Kluber to right the ship and begin to make good on the $10MM contract he signed over the winter, but there’s been little in the way of positives to foster optimism.

Boston’s bullpen, in general, has been solid this season, ranking 13th in the Majors with a 3.84 ERA. However, some cracks have begun to form over the past couple weeks. Closer Kenley Jansen has begun to struggle with his command and had a recent pair of blow-ups, while righty John Schreiber hit the injured list with a lat strain last week.

Last night, the Sox further announced that lefty Richard Bleier is headed to the injured list with shoulder inflammation. After a pair of tough outings early in the year, he’d been pitching well for about a month, working to a 2.77 ERA over a span of 13 innings from April 15 to May 15. However, Bleier was rocked for five runs (three earned) on six hits in 2 2/3 innings over his past two appearances before landing on the injured list.

The Sox didn’t provide a timetable for Bleier’s potential return. He’ll be replaced by fellow lefty Brennan Bernardino for the time being. The 31-year-old southpaw, claimed off waivers from Seattle earlier in the season, has a solid 3.65 ERA in 12 1/3 frames with the Sox since they picked him up, with a hearty 55% grounder rate and 5.6% walk rate helping to offset a tepid 18.5% strikeout rate.

Though Bleier will be out for at least two weeks, the Red Sox could soon be getting healthier in the infield. Christopher Smith of MassLive.com tweets that Yu Chang is slated to head out on a rehab assignment tomorrow, and Christian Arroyo could do the same as soon as Friday. Chang has been out for nearly a month since suffering a hamate fracture, while Arroyo’s been sidelined since early May due to a hamstring strain.

That pair’s impending return will push the Red Sox into some roster decisions, as both have been outperformed by current second baseman Enmanuel Valdez, who’s batting .270/.324/.476 with three homers and three steals in 68 plate appearances. Valdez has minor league options remaining, however, while both Chang and Arroyo are out of options. Boston has also gotten solid work in an even smaller sample from utilityman Pablo Reyes, whom they acquired from the A’s in exchange for cash 11 days ago. In 28 plate appearances, Reyes is batting .296/.321/.407 (8-for-27, three doubles, one walk, four strikeouts). Like Chang and Arroyo, he’s out of minor league options.

The Opener: Miller, Gore, MLBTR Chat

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As MLB’s 2023 regular season continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Miller to debut:

The Dodgers are reportedly planning to select the contract of top pitching prospect Bobby Miller ahead of this evening’s game in Atlanta. A consensus top-30 prospect in the game entering the season, Miller boasts a 100 mph fastball and has routinely struck out over 30% of batters faced throughout the minors. He’s been off to a shaky start so far in 2023, with a 5.65 ERA across four starts and a strikeout rate of just 19.7% to go with a 9.8% walk rate in a tiny sample of just 14 1/3 innings of work. Shaky start notwithstanding, Miller’s raw talent provides plenty of reason for optimism that he can be an asset to the Dodgers both today and going forward. He’s not currently on the 40-man roster, meaning the club will need to make a corresponding move to free up space for the young right-hander.

2. Gore to face San Diego:

Nationals lefty MacKenzie Gore will face the club that drafted him third overall in the 2017 draft this evening, as the Padres head to Nationals Park for a three-game set. Gore, a longtime top prospect who made his big league debut for the Padres last season, was sent to the Nationals mid-season as part of the blockbuster that brought Juan Soto to San Diego. Now Gore, who sports a solid 3.69 ERA and 3.67 FIP through 46 1/3 innings of work, will face down his former team and their star-studded lineup that includes Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Xander Bogaerts. This series could prove to be a pivotal one for the Padres. Despite lofty expectations in San Diego, the club enters the series with a 21-26 record that puts them eight games back of their rival Dodgers in the NL West.

3. MLBTR Chat today:

With around 30% of the 2023 campaign now in the books, there’s still a handful of surprise teams in good positions in the standings, and many expected playoff contenders struggling. If the events of the season so far have spurred any questions in your mind about your favorite team or the league as a whole, MLBTR’s Steve Adams is holding a live chat with readers at 1pm CT. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.

Rockies Considering Dinelson Lamet For Rotation

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Rockies right-hander Dinelson Lamet has been working as a reliever for the past couple of years but the Rockies are considering a move back to the rotation for him. Manager Bud Black tells Thomas Harding of MLB.com that the club is “contemplating the possibility” of moving him back to a starting gig. Lamet seems keen on the idea, telling Harding that “I don’t like starting — I love it. But it all depends what the team wants.”

Lamet, 30, once seemed like one of the better starting pitchers in the entire league. It started with some decent results as a rookie with the Padres in 2017, as he posted a 4.57 ERA in 2017. Tommy John surgery then wiped out his 2018, but he followed that up by returning to post a 4.07 ERA the year after. He then took things to another level in the shortened 2020 season, with a tiny 2.09 ERA over 12 starts, striking out 34.8% of batters faced and walking 7.5% with a 36.9% ground ball rate. He finished fourth in the National League Cy Young voting that season.

The road has gotten bumpy since then, however. He dealt with elbow issues late in 2020 that prevented him from pitching in the playoffs, and those carried into 2021. He began that year on the injured list and struggled once he returned to the Friars. He went on the injured list again in June with forearm inflammation and worked out of the bullpen when he returned late in the season. He finished that year with a 4.40 ERA in just 47 innings.

The Padres kept Lamet in relief in 2022, eventually flipping him to the Brewers in the Josh Hader trade. He was quickly designated for assignment by Milwaukee and claimed by Colorado, eventually finishing the year with a 6.12 ERA. Here in 2023, he posted a ghastly 12.66 ERA through 12 appearances before landing on the injured list due to lower back tightness.

The fact that the Rockies are now thinking about revisiting the possibility of Lamet as a starter is a bit surprising given his run of poor results and health issues in recent years, though there are also reasons why it makes sense for them to be open to it. The club came into the season with a poor on-paper rotation and things have generally gotten worse. Germán Márquez is out for the rest of the season due to Tommy John surgery. Antonio Senzatela returned from last year’s torn ACL but landed back on the injured list after just two starts due to an elbow sprain. Meanwhile, Noah Davis, Ryan Feltner and Ryan Rolison are also on the IL.

Amid all those injuries, the club’s rotation now consists of Kyle Freeland, Connor Seabold, Chase Anderson, Austin Gomber and Karl Kauffmann. Freeland is doing well overall and Anderson made one good start after getting claimed off waivers, but the other three each have an ERA of 5.97 or higher. Overall, the club’s starters have a 5.74 ERA, ahead of just the Reds and A’s among teams across the majors.

Considering those general struggles and Lamet’s past results, it’s understandable that the Rockies would take a gamble on him rediscovering his previous form. As Harding’s report notes, the club suggested he experiment with shortening his stride while on the injured list, which seems to be showing some positive signs. Lamet recently joined the Triple-A Albuquerque Isotopes on a rehab assignment and has found some good results. His first outing resulted in two innings of one-run ball, but he followed that up by throwing 38 pitches in four perfect innings his next time out, striking out four.

A nice outing in the minors doesn’t necessarily mean that Lamet will just slide back into his 2020 form but getting anywhere close would be a nice storyline for a Colorado club that has had few. Not only would it be good for them in the short term, helping to stabilize the shaky rotation, but it could also turn Lamet to into an intriguing trade candidate. He’s in his final year of arbitration control, having agreed to a $5MM salary this season. As an impending free agent on a club that is unlikely to be in the playoff race, he would naturally turn up in trade rumors if he seemed to be getting back into form. With so many clubs throughout the league dealing with pitching injuries, he would undoubtedly garner interest by getting even partway to his 2020 form.

Julio Teheran Opts Out Of Deal With Padres

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Right-hander Julio Teheran has opted out of his minor league deal with the Padres, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. The Padres will have to decide whether or not to add the veteran to their 40-man roster or release him back into free agency.

This is the second time this script has played out this month. Teheran, 32, signed a minor league deal with the Friars in the offseason but opted out of that deal in early May. He ended up sticking with the organization as he and the club agreed to a new deal just two days later, though he has now apparently triggered an opt-out clause yet again.

It’s now possible that he and the Padres will again find common ground on a new deal that will keep the relationship going. On the other hand, there are many clubs throughout the league that are facing significant rotation challenges due to injuries while the Padres aren’t quite that desperate. Adrián Morejón and Seth Lugo are on the injured list but the club still has Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove, Michael Wacha and Ryan Weathers. There’s also Nick Martinez, who has been in the bullpen of late but could be moved back to the rotation, while Jay Groome and Pedro Avila are on the 40-man and in Triple-A. Perhaps Teheran would be interested in heading to the open market to see if he can find better opportunities with one of the 29 other clubs.

The righty has logged 40 innings in eight Triple-A starts this year, posting a 5.63 ERA in that the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. He’s struck out 24.3% of batters faced while walking 8.6% and getting grounders at a 40.3% clip. He was once a mainstay of the rotation in Atlanta, logging 1,334 innings from 2013 to 2019 with a 3.64 ERA. However, he followed that up with a nightmare season for the Angels in 2020, registering a 10.05 ERA. He made one major league appearance for the Tigers in 2021 before splitting 2022 between the independent Atlantic League and the Mexican League.

Twins’ Rocco Baldelli Signed Through At Least 2025

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Twins manager Rocco Baldelli was originally signed to a four-year deal that ran from 2019 to 2022 with multiple club options. It was reported in September of last year that he would be retained for 2023 but it wasn’t clear if the club had simply picked up an option or worked out a new contract. Now Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Twins picked up those options prior to last season and gave Baldelli an extension that goes through at least 2025.

It’s unknown exactly how long the new contract is, but it’s notable it goes for at least two more seasons beyond the current campaign. That means there’s no immediate concern about a “lame duck” situation and it also shows the organization has plenty of faith in the work Baldelli has done.

Baldelli’s tenure has seen the club post inconsistent results. His first two seasons each resulted in the Twins topping the American League Central, going 101-61 in 2019 and then 36-24 in the shortened 2020 season. However, that was followed up by a disappointing 73-89 showing in 2021. Despite that rough campaign, the club’s decision makers evidently felt good enough about having Baldelli at the helm to quietly work out a new deal to keep him around longer.

Last year, they were leading the division for most of the season but stumbled down the stretch as various injuries mounted, eventually leading to a 78-84 record and a third-place finish. Through the early going here in 2023, they are on the upswing again, though thanks in large part to their weak division. They’re the only club in the Central with a winning record, currently at 25-22. That’s enough for a lead of 3.5 games over the second-place Tigers, even though the Twins have the same record as the Blue Jays, who are in the basement of the AL East.

The club is clearly in win-now mode, having given out huge contracts to players like Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton in recent years, as well as trading for high-profile players like Sonny Gray and Pablo López. More disappointing results would increase the temperature under Baldelli’s seat but it seems that he’s currently quite comfortable in the dugout in Minnesota.

Easton McGee Expected To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Mariners right-hander Easton McGee is expected to undergo Tommy John surgery, reports Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. If that does indeed come to fruition, it will wipe out the remainder of his 2023 season and part of his 2024 as well.

McGee, 25, was acquired from the Red Sox in an offseason trade and begun 2023 in the minors. He made five Triple-A starts with a 3.14 ERA and was recalled to make a spot start against the Blue Jays at the end of April. He fared extremely well in that game, tossing 6 2/3 scoreless innings while allowing just one hit and one walk. Unfortunately, he was placed on the injured list the next day and will now seemingly be facing a very significant absence, as TJS usually requires a recovery period of 14 to 18 months. The Mariners will eventually transfer him to the 60-day IL whenever they need his roster spot.

Drafted by the Rays in 2016, he climbed his way up to the big leagues with that club last year, making his major league debut with a scoreless three-inning appearance. He spent most of the season in Triple-A, tossing 107 2/3 innings over 22 starts and five relief appearances. He posted a 5.43 ERA in that time with a 17.4% strikeout rate, 4.3% walk rate and 39.6% ground ball rate. The Rays designated him for assignment in October, after which the Red Sox claimed him off waivers before flipping him to Seattle for cash a month later.

This is obviously horrible news for McGee, but the one silver lining is that the injury happened after he was promoted to the big leagues. That means he will collect major league pay and service time as he spends the rest of the season on the injured list.

For the Mariners, they first recalled McGee as they were trying to cover for the absence of Robbie Ray, who himself required Tommy John surgery. Bryce Miller has since stepped up and seized that rotation spot next to Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Marco Gonzales, but they will no longer be able to count on Easton as a depth option for the rest of this season.

Marlins Acquire Jonathan Davis From Tigers

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The Tigers announced that they have traded outfielder Jonathan Davis to the Marlins in exchange for minor league outfielder Brady Allen. Neither player had a 40-man roster spot prior to the deal so no corresponding moves will be required in that regard. Allen is expected to join the High-A West Michigan Whitecaps, reports Chris McCosky of Detroit News.

Davis, 31, has appeared in the five previous major league seasons, suiting up for the Blue Jays, Yankees and Brewers. He’s never been much more than a part-time player, having made 350 plate appearances over 171 games across those five seasons.

His best assets are speed and defense, which he has shown in his time in the big leagues, stealing 18 bases in 21 tries. In terms of the glovework, he’s been worth eight Outs Above Average in that limited showing, while Ultimate Zone Rating has him just slightly above average and Defensive Runs Saved exactly par. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to pair that with much offense, having hit .185/.291/.245 thus far.

He was outrighted by the Brewers last year and signed a minor league deal with the Tigers. He’s played 36 games for the Triple-A Toledo Mud Hens so far this season with a robust .258/.336/.516 batting line, hitting five home runs and swiping five bags already while playing all three outfield positions. It seems the Tigers didn’t have any immediate plans to get him into the mix and have let him off the leash by sending him to Miami.

The Marlins have been trying to solve their center field position for years and their plan this year was to move second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. out there. However, it was reported last week that he’s going to miss the next four to six weeks with turf toe. The club also has corner outfielders Avisaíl García and Jesús Sánchez on the injured list, further depleting their outfield depth. The Fish have been using Bryan De La Cruz, Garrett Hampson and Peyton Burdick as their primary outfielders of late, with Xavier Edwards and Jorge Soler mixed in as well. Davis will give the club another non-roster option as they look to get those injured players back to health.

By subtracting from their own near-term outfield depth, the Tigers will add a longer-term piece in Allen. The 23-year-old was selected by the Marlins in the fifth round of the 2021 draft. Between last year and this year, he’s made 630 plate appearances in 154 games between Single-A and High-A. He’s hit .250/.340/.376 in that time for a wRC+ of 107, striking out at a 25.6% clip while walking 11.4% of the time.

Big Hype Prospects: Holliday, Caminero, Carter, Williams, Davis

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Due to travel, it’s been a little over a month since the last Big Hype Prospects. Let’s check in on who is making waves.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jackson Holliday, 19, SS, BAL (A+)
(A/A+)158 PA, 6 HR, 11 SB, .394/.513/.701

Holliday’s introduction to professional baseball could not be more encouraging. He leads all qualified minor league hitters with a 222 wRC+. After wrecking Low-A pitching, he’s eviscerating High-A competition in the same manner. He evinces excellent plate discipline and a feel for stinging contact. His nearly .500 BABIP isn’t the product of luck – he’s simply outclassing the competition with an all-fields approach. If there’s a quibble, it’s that he rarely lofts the ball. Even so, that’s not affecting his power output – he has an excellent .300 ISO on the season.

To outside observers, Holliday is seemingly ready for a challenge at Double-A. It’s worth remembering he has just 93 plate appearances in High-A and a total of only 248 professional plate appearances. As long as the Orioles don’t believe he’s stagnating, a longer stint in High-A could prove appropriate. A stable environment helps with certain types of learning. On the other hand, we’re all eager to see what he does when finally challenged.

Junior Caminero, 19, 3B, TBR (A+)
146 PA, 11 HR, 2 SB, .351/.404/.709

I’ve put out a few calls for updated notes on Caminero since those I’ve gathered disagree about his future feel for contact. Presently, few hitters have shown comparable capacity for power. The folks at FanGraphs emphasized “his lack of ball/strike recognition” in a recent report, a concern shared by other evaluators. However, as others point out, such issues are hardly unprecedented among successful Major Leaguers. In this day and age, it’s not as if a 19-year-old slugger is incapable of making adjustments. It hasn’t been a problem in High-A because practically everything he hits is hammered. His .362 ISO ranks sixth in the minors. Double-A will mark an important challenge for Caminero.

Evan Carter, 20, OF, TEX (AA)
158 PA, 4 HR, 8 SB, .302/.430/.426

Carter can be a divisive prospect. It’s so easy to fall in love with the discipline and feel for contact. A Major League future feels inevitable. The floor for Carter is seemingly so high. Brandon Nimmo comps abound. All the same traits – even body type and line-drive-based power are there. It’s rare for prospect analysis to gush about a player’s floor, and perhaps that’s the problem with Carter. We’re usually focused on ceiling and, barring a change, Carter’s feels limited; like he’s on his way to becoming one of the best core contributors in the league. Will we find him on many All-Star teams? Probably not at his current power output.

The same point I made with Caminero applies to Carter. Never has it been easier for players to make positive adjustments to their game. Just because a prospect looks and feels like Brandon Nimmo doesn’t mean they’re destined to stay in their lane. Carter could follow the path of Lars Nootbaar to higher exit velocities. Or, like a different Cardinals outfielder, he could stall out against some aspect of Major League pitching.

Gavin Williams, 23, SP, CLE (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 40 IP, 12.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.58 ERA

A number of my favorite pitching prospects are in the Guardians system, and Williams is probably the best of the bunch. After three laser-sharp outings in Double-A, he was promoted to Triple-A where he’s remained effective. He worked 115 innings last season, so there is some scope for him to contribute in the Majors this season while managing his workload. However, the Guardians will soon welcome back Aaron Civale and Triston McKenzie. A near-term opportunity might not present itself. Williams features a four-pitch repertoire of upper-90s fastball, well-commanded slider, curve, and changeup. To my eyes, it looks as if he has sinking and riding fastballs – or perhaps the pitch behaved differently based on vertical location (I haven’t seen this mentioned in reports). Like most power pitchers, the changeup lags behind the other offerings, though it is viewed as a viable pitch with promise. The word “intensity” appears on multiple public reports.

Henry Davis, 23, C, PIT (AA)
141 PA, 10 HR, 5 SB, .297/.447/.631

Davis’ second tour in Double-A is going swimmingly. After a mere 97 wRC+ over a similar span last season, his current 189 wRC+ ranks sixth in the minors. He’s also showing the walk, strikeout, and contact rates of a future star. Davis was drafted as a slugging catcher who might eventually wind up at first base. As yet, the Pirates have mostly used him as a catcher this season with a few odd starts at designated hitter and right field. Davis has an extreme, pulled, fly ball approach which isn’t exactly suited to PNC Park. However, he has the raw power to make it work even if a few would-be dingers die on the warning track. It’s feeling increasingly probable we see both Davis and Endy Rodriguez in Pittsburgh later this summer – especially if the club can remain competitive in the standings.

Three More

Matt McLain, CIN (23): McLain was selected about a week ago after hitting .348/.474/.710 in Triple-A. In 22 plate appearances, he has 10 strikeouts and four hits. He’s struggled to make impactful contact after averaging 90.9-mph EV in Triple-A. McLain has a narrow window to impress Cincinnati decision-makers before the likes of Elly De La Cruz and others arrive on the scene.

Nolan Jones, COL (25): A post-hype prospect, Jones is a disciplined power hitter who has a bit of a Quad-A reputation at the moment. He’s producing a .362/.486/.723 line in a heady offensive environment with 90.5-mph average EV (113.7-mph Max EV). He’s splitting time between first base, third base, and right field – all positions the Rockies could stand to upgrade (at least indirectly).

Ethan Salas, SDP (16): As my favorite contact put it, “Salas is bound to be the first 16-year-old position player in a full-season league in a loooooong time.” The young catcher is already entering Top 100 lists.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to discuss corrections.

Cavan Biggio Is In A Tough Spot

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It wasn’t that long ago that the Blue Jays looked to be building their infield around a trio of second-generation stars whose fathers combined to go to 20 All-Star Games over the course of their respective careers. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio all made their big league debuts in 2019, and all three hit the ground running. Fast forward to 2023, however, and only two of the three have panned out as core pieces. Guerrero and Bichette remain focal points in a talented Blue Jays lineup, but the now-28-year-old Biggio is clinging to a roster spot and could force the Jays to make a decision soon if the can’t turn things around.

While Biggio was never as considered as touted a prospect as either Guerrero or Bichette, he nevertheless looked like a potential key contributor from the moment he debuted. Between his 2019 debut and the shortened 2020 season, Biggio played in 159 games and totaled 695 plate appearances — effectively a full regular season’s worth of playing time — and batted .240/.368/.430 with 24 home runs while going a perfect 20-for-20 in stolen bases. His 26.5% strikeout rate was a bit bloated, and he wasn’t exactly an elite defender at second base, but Biggio walked at a huge 16.1% clip, ran well and showed above-average power.

Since that time, however, Biggio’s output has cratered. In a nearly identical number of plate appearances, he’s batted just .204/.307/.340 with 15 home runs and six stolen bases (eight attempts) — including a disastrous .127/.191/.238 showing in 68 trips to the plate so far in 2023. Biggio has been displaced at second base in recent years — first by Marcus Semien (2021), and then by Santiago Espinal (2022) and Whit Merrifield (2023). The Jays have bounced Biggio around the diamond a bit, giving him more time in the outfield and some time at third base, but the move to a utility role hasn’t been a productive one, clearly.

Biggio remained a disciplined, albeit less impactful hitter in 2021-22 (12.5% walk rate), but this year’s small sample of plate appearances doesn’t line up with even those down seasons. Biggio has walked in just 5.9% of his plate appearances — less than half his 2021-22 levels — and is striking out at a career-worst 38.9% clip. He isn’t suddenly chasing balls out of the strike zone with reckless abandon, as his 21.3% chase rate is right in line with his 2021-22 levels and well shy of the the league-average 31.5%.

However, Biggio’s contact rate when he does chase has plummeted to a career-worst 46.9%. His contact rate on pitches within the zone, meanwhile, has fallen to 80.6% — another career-worst. Heading into the 2023 season, Biggio made contact on 53% of his swings when chasing a ball off the plate and 85.4% on pitches within the zone.

The Blue Jays are a particularly right-handed team, so it’s perhaps understandable if they hope to get Biggio’s left-handed bat going. Brandon Belt, Daulton Varsho and Kevin Kiermaier are the only lefty-swinging regulars in the lineup. Biggio and outfielder Nathan Lukes are the two lefties on the bench at the moment. Of those five lefties, however, only Kiermaier and Belt have been productive at the plate. Varsho is hitting .206/.279/.359 in his first year with Toronto, while Lukes has gone 2-for-12 in a tiny sample of 14 plate appearances while making his MLB debut.

A lack of bench production, in general, has been a killer for the Blue Jays thus far, though others around Biggio have begun to pick up the pace. Espinal, for instance, opened the season mired in an awful 2-for-31 skid, though that looked rather fluky in nature, given his tiny 9.1% strikeout rate and .071 average on balls in play. He’s hitting .310/.370/.429 over his past 47 plate appearances, including a 3-for-3 effort on Saturday. Danny Jansen was scarcely better early in the year, beginning his 2023 with a 3-for-32 spell. He’s batted .247/.310/.506 since.

There’s been no such turnaround for Biggio, who has just two multi-hit games on the season and has only received 19 plate appearances in the month of May. The Jays clearly value his ability to play all over and provide some speed, as he’s lined up at second base, first base and in right field this month in addition to a trio of pinch-running appearances. However, Merrifield and Espinal have gotten the majority of playing time at second base, even against right-handed pitching, despite the fact that they’re both righties themselves. Biggio hasn’t played a complete game since May 6 and has only started twice in the past two weeks. He hasn’t been on the injured list; he just seemingly hasn’t been in the team’s plans.

For the time being, an injury to Espinal — which the Jays conveniently announced while I was finishing this piece — could open some additional time for Biggio. Utilityman Otto Lopez is up from Triple-A Buffalo in place of Espinal, and he could also enter the mix for at-bats.

Biggio has multiple minor league options remaining, but the Jays don’t have many infield/outfield options who are having productive years in the minors and are options to fill his spot. Lopez is batting only .213/.273/.260 in 139 Triple-A plate appearances, and top infield prospect Addison Barger hasn’t been much better at .237/.333/.329 in 87 plate appearances. Infielder Leo Jimenez is hitting .292 with a .370 on-base in Double-A but has just a .308 slugging percentage. This year’s 73 plate appearances are also his first experience above A-ball. Former top prospect Orelvis Martinez is batting .151/.226/.479 in Double-A. Each of Lopez, Martinez and Jimenez bats right-handed anyhow, and the Jays may want to keep as many lefty options around as possible.

One such option could be 25-year-old first baseman/left fielder Spencer Horwitz, who’s out to a terrific .326/.450/.437 slash in 169 Triple-A plate appearances. Horwitz isn’t hitting for much power and doesn’t project to, but he’s walked in 17.8% of his plate appearances and has torn up right-handed pitching at a .362/.492/.500 clip (.244/.347/.293 against lefties). The former 24th-round pick doesn’t bring the speed or defensive versatility to the table that Biggio would, but the Jays already have Lopez (and, once healthy, Espinal) on hand as a backup infielders who can play many of the same positions as Biggio. Lukes, meanwhile, can play all three outfield spots. Biggio’s defensive versatility is nice, but the Jays have other options at most of the spots he can cover.

This certainly isn’t a call to designate Biggio for assignment, but the Jays are a win-now team who aren’t getting much out of a valuable 26-man roster spot. It’s also tough to see how Biggio can be expected to get back on track when he’s had 19 plate appearances this month and is starting, at best, about a game per week. Again, perhaps the injury to Espinal can change that, but Merrifield still figures to be in line for a large portion of the work at second base.

The Jays showed last year they were willing to carry Bradley Zimmer for most of the season as practically an exclusive pinch-runner/defensive replacement, but Biggio has had more recent success than Zimmer had and at least ostensibly could have more of a future with the club. They could option him for everyday at-bats and see if that can jumpstart his contact abilities; at the very least, it might bring the Jays a more productive lefty bat off the bench, if Horwitz were indeed to be the chosen replacement.

From a bigger-picture standpoint, it’s increasingly tough to see where Biggio fits in if he can’t improve his production. He and the Jays agreed to a $2.8MM salary for the current season over the winter, avoiding arbitration in the process. He’d be arb-eligible again next winter, and it’s hard to imagine the team keeping him around if he has such a limited role and even more limited productivity. If Biggio can’t get things going, he’ll be a clear non-tender candidate following the season. For the time being, a shuffling of the bench mix makes sense both to maximize the utility of the big league roster and to hopefully get him back on track in Buffalo — an opportunity that simply isn’t present in the Majors right now.

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