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Latest On Yankees’ Deadline Plans

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The Yankees swung a major trade earlier today when they acquired second baseman and center fielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. from the Marlins in exchange for a three-prospect package. The addition of Chisholm helps to address an offense that has struggled to produce when anyone other than Juan Soto or Aaron Judge is at the plate, but Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote in the aftermath of the Chisholm trade this evening that the club plans to continue being aggressive on the trade market as they look to return to the postseason after missing for the first time since 2016 last year.

According to Sherman, the Yankees’ ideal deadline involves acquiring at least two hitters and two relievers. The addition of Chisholm locks up one of those hitting additions, although there’s still plenty of room for improvement around New York’s lineup. Ben Rice has held his own at first base in place of the injured Anthony Rizzo, and Anthony Volpe appears certain to continue getting everyday reps at shortstop, but third base appears to be a clear hole for the club. SNY’s Andy Martino reported earlier today that the Yankees were planning to address the hot corner before the trade deadline. While it’s theoretically possible to imagine Chisholm, a former shortstop with enough arm to handle center field, sliding over to third base for the Yankees, he’s never played the position before as a professional and the club may prefer to keep him in more familiar spots on the diamond for the time being.

If the Yankees do pursue an addition at third base, Sherman suggests that Isaac Paredes of the Rays, Luis Rengifo of the Angels, and Matt Chapman of the Giants could be among the options the club entertains. Chapman’s 111 wRC+ is the lowest of those three options but any of them would be a major upgrade over the paltry 75 wRC+ the club has gotten from its third baseman this year, a figure that ranks third worst in baseball this year. A deal for a third baseman, according to Sherman, could free up the Yankees to move another bat such as second baseman Gleyber Torres or center fielder Trent Grisham in a deal for bullpen help, though it also stands to reason that Chisholm could bounce between the keystone and the outfield depending on matchups, allowing the club to sit struggling lefties like Verdugo and Grisham against southpaws while giving players like Torres and LeMahieu more days off against right-handed starters.

As for the bullpen, the Yankees are known to have interest in Marlins southpaw Tanner Scott, and today’s deal between the sides for Chisholm does not figure to stop the clubs from getting together on another deal before the deadline should they be able to reach in agreement regarding the lefty. That being said, there are plenty of other late-inning relief options that figure to be available this summer. Nationals closer Kyle Finnegan and Rays closer Pete Fairbanks are both among the arms with closing experience rumored to be available. NJ.com’s Randy Miller reported earlier today that the Rays and Yankees were in the midst of “serious talks” regarding a Fairbanks deal, though MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch subsequently reported that nothing is close between the sides regarding Fairbanks.

Failing a reliable late-inning option, there figure to be plenty of other potentially interesting options available such White Sox flamethrower Michael Kopech, Cubs veteran Hector Neris, and Blue Jays righty Trevor Richards. Each of that trio have struggled to varying degrees this year but could be a fairly interesting addition for the Yankees bullpen, particularly if acquired as a secondary addition behind a more impactful arm like Fairbanks, Scott, or Finnegan.

Another possibility for bolstering the club’s relief corps Sherman suggests would be looking at the market for rental starting pitching. As reported by Sherman, the Yankees have inquired after Tigers right-hander Jack Flaherty, who sports an excellent 2.95 ERA and 3.10 FIP in 106 2/3 innings of work for Detroit this year, Sherman suggests that such a move could allow the Yankees to move right-hander Luis Gil to the bullpen as a high leverage arm. Such a move would both fortify the relief corps while also helping to limit Gil’s innings. The righty has already thrown 107 1/3 frames this year after throwing just 138 1/3 total innings between 2021 and 2023 due to a variety of injuries.

The idea of preserving Gil’s health by moving him to the bullpen might be an attractive one for New York, although it’s worth noting that it would require a starter of Flaherty’s caliber for the loss of Gil from the rotation mix not to be a downgrade overall. Gil’s first big league action since 2022 has gone exceptionally well as he’s posted a 3.10 ERA with a 3.52 FIP across 20 starts for the Yankees this year while filling out the club’s rotation in the place of injured starters—first Gerrit Cole, then Clarke Schmidt.

Mike Clevinger To Undergo Season-Ending Surgery

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The White Sox announced this afternoon that veteran right-hander Mike Clevinger will miss the remainder of the 2024 season following disc replacement surgery in his neck, which he’s scheduled to undergo on August 1. The 33-year-old has been on the injured list due to elbow inflammation since late May but started a rehab assignment at the Triple-A level last month.

Clevinger, 33, will ultimately make just four starts in the majors this year after signing with the White Sox on a $3MM deal shortly after Opening Day. He struggled in the limited time he was healthy enough to take the mound with a 6.75 ERA and 6.21 FIP in 16 innings of work. It’s a disappointing showing for both player and team in Clevinger’s second consecutive year with the White Sox, particularly after he delivered a solid season in 2023 when he posted a 3.77 ERA and 4.28 FIP in 131 1/3 innings of work while ending the season on a strong note with a 2.45 ERA over his final 11 starts.

That strong stretch to end the 2023 campaign was reminiscent of the veteran’s best days, when he pitched for Cleveland. After a difficult rookie season in 2016, Clevinger broke out in 2017 to become one of the better starters in the game and over the next three seasons posted a fantastic 2.96 ERA with a 3.32 FIP in 447 2/3 innings of work. Among pitchers with at least 400 innings of work across those three seasons, Clevinger’s ERA ranked sixth in the majors behind a quintet of multi-time Cy Young award winners: Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, and Corey Kluber.

Unfortunately, things came off the rails for Clevinger shortly after he was traded to the Padres during the shortened 2020 season. He underwent Tommy John surgery late in the year and missed the entire 2021 campaign while rehabbing. He’s struggled to stay on the mound ever since, having pitched just just 303 1/3 innings of work total since the start of the 2023 season. While his overall numbers during that time paint a picture of a roughly average back-end arm, he’s frequent injury woes and step back from his peak in the late 2010’s have left him unable to contribute anything even close to his former dominant form.

While Clevinger’s injury woes and lackluster results when he did take the mound this year left him a somewhat unlikely trade candidate in the days leading up to Tuesday’s deadline, his impending surgery not only eliminates whatever remote possibility of a trade still existed but also leaves the White Sox without a veteran arm who otherwise may have been able to fill out the rotation following the possible departure of arms like Erick Fedde and Garrett Crochet, both of whom have found themselves in the rumor mill quite frequently this summer.

A timeline for Clevinger’s return to the mound isn’t yet clear, though it’s worth noting that veteran outfielder Jesse Winker underwent a similar procedure in October 2022 and was back in action in time for Spring Training last year. If Clevinger follows a similar timeline, he’ll enter free agency this winter coming off a lost season in 2024 but likely to be ready to go in time for when pitchers and catchers report next February.

Rockies To Designate Ty Blach For Assignment

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The Rockies are selecting reliever John Curtiss onto the MLB roster and designating left-hander Ty Blach for assignment, tweets Thomas Harding of MLB.com. Colorado will recall righty Jake Bird to take the bullpen spot vacated by the Nick Mears trade and bring up Tanner Gordon as the 27th man for today’s doubleheader against San Francisco.

Blach, 33, has pitched in parts of seven MLB seasons and spent each of the past three years with the Rockies. He’s split time between the bullpen and the rotation in a swing role ever since the club selected him to the roster back in April but has struggled badly in the role with a 6.36 ERA and a 5.72 FIP in 63 2/3 innings of work. While Blach has walked just 5.4% of batters, he’s struck opponents out at a paltry 11.5% clip and has struggled badly to keep the ball in the park with nearly two homers allowed per nine innings this year. Those numbers are worse than even his prior difficult seasons with Colorado, where he posted a combined 5.66 ERA with a 4.99 FIP in 122 1/3 innings of work between the 2022 and ’23 campaigns.

While the lefty was once a solid swingman for the Giants early in his career, posting a 4.36 ERA and 4.14 FIP in 299 1/3 innings of work from his debut in 2016 to the end of the 2018 season, he’s struggled to keep a role in the big leagues since then with a cumulative 6.81 ERA in 51 appearances from 2019 onwards. Assuming the Rockies don’t work out a trade involving Blach prior to the upcoming deadline on Tuesday, they’ll attempt to pass him through waivers at some point in the next seven days. Should he go unclaimed, they’ll have the opportunity to outright him to Triple-A, though he could reject that assignment in favor of free agency should he so choose.

Joining the 40-man roster in Blach’s place is Curtiss, who already appeared in a Rockies uniform for the first time earlier this year. The righty appeared in a game between Colorado and Philadelphia back in May but struggled badly in the appearance, allowing two runs on three hits while recording just one out. Prior to that earlier stint on Colorado’s 40-man roster, Curtiss was a journeyman reliever who had previously pitched for the Twins, Angels, Rays, Marlins, Brewers, and Mets across parts of six seasons in the majors. He’s mostly posted solid results in that time with a 3.81 ERA and 3.98 FIP in 106 1/3 innings of work entering the 2024 season.

Most of that success came in Florida, as he posted an excellent 1.80 ERA in 25 innings with the AL champion Rays during the shortened 2020 season before heading to Miami in 2021 and delivering a 2.48 ERA in 40 frames for the club that year. He’s struggled since leaving the south, however, with eight runs (six earned) allowed during a 4 1/3 inning stint with Milwaukee late in the 2021 campaign and a 4.58 ERA in 15 appearances for the Mets last year before his rough outing with the Rockies back in May. Going forward, Curtiss seems likely to be used in middle relief alongside Bird, Peter Lambert, and Justin Lawrence for the Rockies.

Brewers Acquire Nick Mears From Rockies

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The Brewers acquired reliever Nick Mears from the Rockies. Colorado gets right-hander Bradley Blalock and minor league pitcher Yujanyer Herrera in return.

Mears is third among Colorado relievers with 45 1/3 innings. His 5.56 earned run average makes him an odd trade pickup at first glance, but Milwaukee is intrigued by his swing-and-miss ability. Mears has fanned more than 28% of batters faced and gotten whiffs on nearly 12% of his offerings. His fastball averages 96.7 MPH, while opponents have had very little success against his slider. While batters have teed off on his curveball, the fastball-slider combination makes him an interesting upside play.

If not for a .366 average on balls in play against him, Mears’ bottom line numbers would be a lot more impressive. ERA estimators like SIERA (3.37) and FIP (2.59) are a lot more bullish on his performance. While Mears has excellent stuff, his command is questionable. He has walked 10.3% of batters faced this season and an even 13% of opposing hitters in 95 career innings. Throwing strikes consistently is probably his biggest hurdle to assuming a high-leverage role.

Milwaukee placed late-inning southpaw Bryan Hudson on the 15-day injured list this afternoon. He’s dealing with an oblique strain that’ll keep him out for an unknown amount of time. Manager Pat Murphy told reporters that the team would have a clearer picture of Hudson’s timetable after he goes for imaging (X link via Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). The team expects him back this season, but that’s a hit to their relief group in the short term.

Mears slots in alongside Joel Payamps, Trevor Megill, Elvis Peguero and Hoby Milner in the relief corps. The Brewers could welcome star closer Devin Williams back in a few weeks — he’s on a rehab stint with Triple-A Nashville — and should have a fairly strong setup corps. The 27-year-old Mears will qualify for arbitration for the first time next winter and comes with three additional seasons of club control.

Colorado initially grabbed Mears off waivers from the Rangers during the 2022-23 offseason. That proved to be a nice pickup for GM Bill Schmidt and his front office. They’ve cashed him in for a pair of pitchers who could factor into the rotation or long relief roles in the future. Blalock, 23, has a decent chance to pitch at Coors Field this year. He’s already on the 40-man roster and made a brief big league debut last month, tossing a scoreless inning against San Diego.

The 6’2″ righty has otherwise worked out of the rotation for Milwaukee’s Double-A team in Biloxi. He carries a 4.08 ERA in 75 innings spanning 16 starts. His 20.2% strikeout rate is below average, but his 8.5% walk percentage is solid. The Brew Crew acquired Blalock from the Red Sox for Luis Urías last summer. He’s in his first of three option years and could be a back-end starter.

Herrera, a 6’3″ right-hander, ranked 28th among Milwaukee prospects at Baseball America. The outlet credits him with a mid-90s fastball and an above-average slider. A subpar changeup could point to a bullpen future. The 20-year-old Venezuela native has started nine of 16 outings between the two A-ball levels this season. He owns a 2.91 ERA with an above-average 27.2% strikeout percentage and an 8.1% walk rate. He’d be eligible for the Rule 5 draft next offseason if not added to the 40-man roster. There’s a good chance the Rox select his contract next offseason.

Colorado prioritized starting pitching in their trades last summer. They could do the same this year if they move players like Cal Quantrill, Jalen Beeks, Austin Gomber, Elias Díaz and Jacob Stallings.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the terms of the trade. Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

A’s Reluctant To Trade Brent Rooker

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Brent Rooker has been one of the best hitters in the league over the past two seasons. He hit 30 home runs in an All-Star campaign a year ago. He has been even better this year despite being left out of the Midsummer Classic, clubbing 25 homers with a .288/.365/.583 slash across 378 plate appearances.

If he’s available, Rooker would be arguably the best offensive player on the market. It’s not clear that another team will be able to pry him from Oakland. Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote yesterday that the A’s were leaning towards holding their breakout slugger. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman hears similarly, tweeting this morning that the A’s are informing other teams they’re reluctant to part with Rooker or center fielder JJ Bleday.

As MLBTR explored in more detail in a post for Front Office subscribers this week, whether to trade Rooker is the biggest decision the A’s are facing. There’s a case for moving him. The A’s are at least another season away from postseason contention. This summer’s market looks like it’ll be light on impact bats. Rooker didn’t break through as a regular until after his 28th birthday. He turns 30 in November and is probably amidst the best season of his career.

At the same time, the A’s aren’t facing contractual pressure to make a deal. Rooker is playing for marginally more than the league minimum salary. He’ll qualify for arbitration next offseason and is under team control through 2027. His power-oriented skillset is the kind that pays well over time in arbitration, but his first-year salary will be eminently affordable. The A’s don’t have a single guaranteed contract on their 2025 payroll ledger. Even with ownership imposing huge limitations, they’ll be able to accommodate a salary in the $4-6MM range for Rooker without issue.

Bleday, 26, always seemed like more of a long shot trade candidate. Oakland acquired the lefty-hitting outfielder from the Marlins going into 2023 in a one-for-one swap for A.J. Puk. That deal looked skewed in Miami’s favor during the first season but has been more balanced this year. Bleday, a former sixth overall pick out of Vanderbilt, has stepped up as the A’s primary center fielder. He’s hitting .233/.314/.430 with 12 homers across 422 plate appearances.

The A’s control Bleday for four seasons beyond this one. He won’t be eligible for arbitration until the 2026 campaign. He now looks like a potential regular (or at least a strong side platoon bat) whom the A’s have no urgency to move.

Oakland general manager David Forst said earlier this week that the team wasn’t looking to deal all their players of note. “We may do some things, but anyone who expects we’re going to continue to just move guys for prospects will probably be disappointed because there’s guys here we think are part of the team beyond this year,” Forst told Martín Gallegos of MLB.com on Monday (X link). Fost didn’t specify names but was surely referring to players like Rooker, Bleday and closer Mason Miller — who went on the injured list this week and is very unlikely to move. While those comments could include some amount of gamesmanship — it wouldn’t serve the front office well to exaggerate their urgency to subtract — it seems they’re projecting a similar message in conversations with teams.

If the A’s hold Rooker and Bleday, they’d likely be in for a quiet deadline. Setup man Lucas Erceg should draw interest. They could move rental lefty relievers Scott Alexander and T.J. McFarland for minimal returns. Miguel Andujar is hitting reasonably well and may be on the radar for teams looking for a right-handed bench bat, while back-end starters Ross Stripling and Paul Blackburn just returned from the injured list and could get a few calls.

Phillies Notes: Hays, Marsh, Green, Arozarena

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The Phillies and Orioles completed an intriguing trade Friday that saw Baltimore land Seranthony Dominguez and Cristian Pache in exchange for Austin Hays, which represented something of a lengthy pursuit for Phils president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski.  The executive told reporters (including The Athletic’s Matt Gelb and The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber) that “I’ve actually tried to acquire him the last two trading deadlines, and [the Orioles] were asking for much more than we wanted to give.”

The O’s finally budged, perhaps due to both Dominguez addressing Baltimore’s bullpen needs, and Hays’ increasingly expendable nature within a crowded Orioles outfield.  An ice-cold start to the season and then a four-week IL stint due to a calf strain led to Hays’ playing time being reduced, though he has hit quite well in a more limited capacity over the last two-plus months.  Even with the first six weeks of the season essentially being a wash, Hays has gotten his offensive production back above league average, delivering a 102 wRC+ from a .255/.316/.395 slash line over 175 plate appearances.

It isn’t too far removed from the 108 wRC+ Hays posted over 1677 PA with Baltimore from 2021-23, and his recent hot streak indicates that Hays could certainly still match or surpass that number over the rest of the 2024 campaign.  Hays’ numbers against right-handed pitching are far below his career norms, so if those stats in particular pick up, Hays will certainly put himself in line for more of a regular role in the Phillies’ lineup.

“We don’t think he’s just in a position where he has to be platooned by any means,” Dombrowski said about Hays, who for now seemingly will join with the left-handed hitting Brandon Marsh as part of a timeshare in left field.  Marsh could also be moved to center field to split time with the righty-swinging Johan Rojas should Hays force his way into everyday duty in left field.  As Lauber notes, Marsh’s own splits have cut into his playing time — Marsh has been crushing righties but struggling badly against lefties this season, thus necessitating the Phillies’ need for a right-handed bat for the outfield picture.

Addressing that need cost the Phils an experienced reliever in Dominguez, which was no small matter for a Philadelphia team that was already known to be looking for bullpen help prior to the trade.  “We just felt that for us to get a right-handed hitter we had to give up something,” Dombrowski said, and the club will now target “somebody who can pitch innings late in a game that are important innings for us, like our other guys do.”

Carlos Estevez, Tanner Scott, Kyle Finnegan, and Michael Kopech are some of the more prominent relievers linked to Philadelphia’s trade pursuits in recent weeks, and Blue Jays right-hander Chad Green is also “one of the Phillies’ top targets,” in the words of MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (X link).  Green is generally considered to be available given how the struggling Jays will be selling to some extent at the deadline, though Toronto is reportedly focusing on selling pending free agents, whereas Green is under contract through the 2025 season.

As per the unusual multi-option terms of the deal Green signed in January 2023, he ended up earning $21MM over the 2024-25 seasons, once the Blue Jays exercised the two-year version of their club option last fall.  This translates to $10.5MM in 2025 and roughly $3.5MM left in salary this season.  This is no small matter to a Phillies team that is on pace to exceed the luxury tax threshold for the third straight season, and would ideally like to avoid the third penalty tier of $277MM.  RosterResource has the Phils at roughly a $262.3MM tax number right now, and crossing the $277MM line would give the Phillies a 95% tax on any overages, plus their first pick in the 2025 draft would be dropped back by 10 spots.

The Jays could potentially eat more of Green’s salary if the Phillies were to offer a better prospect return, so there are ways for the Phils to work around the payroll issue (while leaving room for other deadline upgrades) if they decide Green is their guy on the trade market.  The veteran righty has a 1.74 ERA over 31 innings for Toronto this season, though his 3.82 SIERA is perhaps a more accurate reflection of Green’s performance.  Green has benefited greatly from a 100% strand rate and a .187 BABIP, and his 23.1% strikeout rate is a little below average, while his 7.7% walk rate is pretty respectable.

In other trade roads not taken, Lauber and Gelb both wrote that the Phillies talked with the Rays about Randy Arozarena before the outfielder was dealt to the Mariners on Thursday.  Gelb noted that Tampa Bay wanted “a top prospect” in exchange for Arozarena, but the Phils weren’t willing to part with the unknown player.

Landing Arozarena would’ve certainly counted as more of a blockbuster move to address Philadelphia’s need for a right-handed hitting outfielder.  While Dombrowski has made a habit of trading prospects for established stars during his storied front office career, it could be that the PBO didn’t want to move whatever particular minor leaguer the Rays wanted, or Dombrowski was wary in general about depleting from the Phillies’ somewhat limited farm system.

Giants Designate Mike Baumann For Assignment

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The Giants announced they’ve designated reliever Mike Baumann for assignment. The move opens an active roster spot for Spencer Bivens, who has been recalled from Triple-A. San Francisco also appointed Hayden Birdsong as the 27th man for today’s doubleheader with the Rockies.

San Francisco just acquired Baumann in a cash deal with Seattle last week. He made one appearance in black and orange, allowing two runs while recording two outs in yesterday’s blowout win over Colorado. He’s out of options, so the Giants had to take him off the 40-man roster if they wanted to remove him from the active roster.

This is the third time this season that Baumann has been designated for assignment. The former Orioles’ third-round draftee has bounced from Baltimore to Seattle to San Francisco. He has struggled in all three stops and owns a 4.84 ERA over 35 1/3 innings. Baumann was a solid piece of Baltimore’s middle relief corps a year ago. The Jacksonville product worked to a 3.76 ERA with an average 22.3% strikeout percentage while logging 64 2/3 innings. This season hasn’t gone to plan, but he hasn’t lost any velocity off a fastball that sits north of 96 MPH.

The Giants can trade Baumann before next Tuesday’s deadline or place him on waivers within the next five days. He hasn’t made it through DFA limbo unclaimed to this point.

Diamondbacks Designate Thyago Vieira For Assignment

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The Diamondbacks announced they’ve designated Thyago Vieira for assignment. The move opens a spot in the bullpen for newly-acquired southpaw A.J. Puk, who has reported to the team. The transaction drops Arizona’s 40-man roster tally to 39.

Vieira has spent the past two months in the desert. The Snakes claimed him off waivers from the Orioles at the beginning of June. He made 11 appearances, allowing six runs (five earned) across 15 2/3 innings. Vieira struck out 14 and handed out nine free passes. Arizona is his third team of the season. He also had stints in Milwaukee and Baltimore and carries a 5.21 earned run average through 38 innings on the year.

The Brazilian-born righty is one of the harder throws in the game, averaging north of 97 MPH on his fastball. That hasn’t translated to huge whiff rates, though, and he has never harnessed his power stuff. Vieira has walked nearly 15% of opposing hitters this season and has a 13.1% walk percentage over parts of five big league campaigns.

Arizona is likely to place Vieira on waivers in the next few days. The 31-year-old has exhausted his minor league options, meaning another team would need to keep him in the big league ’pen if they claim him. Vieira does not have the previous career outright nor the three years of service time necessary to decline an outright assignment, so the Snakes could keep him in the organization if he goes unclaimed on waivers.

Cubs Designate Jesus Tinoco For Assignment

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The Cubs have designated right-hander Jesus Tinoco for assignment.  The move opens up a roster spot for Nate Pearson, whose acquisition from the Blue Jays has now been officially announced by both teams.

Tinoco was only acquired in a trade with the Royals on July 16, and then selected to the active roster a few days later.  His Chicago tenure has consisted of four scoreless innings spread over two appearances, which represented a nice bounce-back from his much rougher 2024 work with the Rangers — an 8.10 ERA in 10 innings and nine appearances.  Texas designated Tinoco for assignment last month and, after opting for free agency, signed a minor league contract with the Royals before being flipped to Wrigleyville.

A veteran of parts of five MLB seasons, Tinoco has a 4.35 ERA in 80 2/3 career innings with Chicago, Texas, Miami, and Colorado.  He also spent the 2023 season in Japan, posting a 2.83 ERA in 35 innings with the Seibu Lions before turning to North America to sign a minor league deal with the Rangers.  Tinoco is no stranger to the DFA wire, and since he has been outrighted before in his career, he can choose to become a free agent (as he did earlier this season) rather than accept an outright assignment to the Cubs’ Triple-A affiliate, provided that he clears waivers.

Astros Interested In Flaherty, Kikuchi

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The Astros are one of the teams most aggressively seeking starting pitching. They’ve already been tied to Jameson Taillon, Erick Fedde, and (before he was traded to Baltimore instead) Zach Eflin. Reporting yesterday also linked Houston to the top two rental starting pitchers on the market.

Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweeted last night that the Astros and Tigers have talked about righty Jack Flaherty. The Athletic’s Chandler Rome writes that Houston has interest in both Flaherty and Toronto southpaw Yusei Kikuchi. Flaherty and Kikuchi are each expected to move before next Tuesday’s deadline. The left-hander told reporters after last night’s start — almost certainly his last in a Jays uniform — that Toronto GM Ross Atkins has already informed him that he’s likely to be traded (link via Keegan Matheson of MLB.com). The Tigers haven’t made quite as strong a declaration on Flaherty, but they’re three games under .500 and 6.5 games back of the American League’s last Wild Card spot.

Flaherty is having the better season of the two. The 28-year-old has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year. He owns a 2.95 earned run average across 18 starts. He’s averaging nearly six innings per appearance and missing bats at an elite rate. Flaherty has punched out a personal-best 32% of opposing hitters. His walk rate is below 5% for the first time in his career. Among pitchers with 100+ innings, only Garrett Crochet has a bigger gap between his strikeout and walk percentages. Flaherty is fifth among that group in strikeout rate, 14th in ERA and seventh in swinging strike percentage (14.1%).

Kikuchi also has plus strikeout and walk numbers, though he’s not missing quite as many bats as Flaherty has. Kikuchi is 24th in swinging strike rate and ranks 18th with a 26.2% strikeout percentage. He has fired 115 2/3 innings across 22 starts. His 4.75 ERA isn’t all that impressive, yet that mark is inflated by a very high .340 average on balls in play and a modest 70.6% strand rate. Kikuchi’s BABIP and left on base numbers were closer to league average last season, when he worked to a 3.86 ERA over 32 starts.

Astros general manager Dana Brown discussed his rotation pursuit with reporters on Friday afternoon (link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). Brown said the team would be happy with a “a third starter or a fourth starter” who could slot behind Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown and perhaps a healthy Justin Verlander in the rotation. (Ronel Blanco has also had an excellent season, but he’s in uncharted territory in terms of MLB workload.) Brown said it’d be “real difficult” to land someone who slots into the top two spots in the rotation, pointing to the lack of supply in high-end arms this summer.

One can debate whether Flaherty qualifies as a #1/#2 arm. He has certainly pitched at that level this year, but he’s one season removed from running a 4.99 ERA with middling strikeout and walk numbers. Kikuchi fits more clearly into the #3/4 starter bucket which Brown described, as home run issues have kept him from ever reaching a consistent top-of-the-rotation level.

While that could point to Kikuchi being the more likely target, the Astros seem engaged on a number of fronts. Houston has one of the weaker farm systems in the majors, but the limited control window on Flaherty and Kikuchi will cap the return to some extent. Brown noted that while he’d ideally land a pitcher who is controllable beyond this season, the Astros aren’t averse to acquiring a rental. He added that there’s no one in the minor league pipeline he’d consider categorically untouchable, though he indicated he preferred to avoid dealing directly off the MLB roster.

Outfielder Jacob Melton is the only Houston player who made Baseball America’s most recent Top 100 prospect update. The Tigers could justifiably ask for him in a Flaherty deal. Detroit has the ability to make Flaherty a qualifying offer if they don’t trade him this summer. Assuming he signs for more than $50MM next winter, the Tigers would get a compensatory pick after the 2025 first round. They’d need to value any trade package more heavily than they do the pick (plus whatever small chance they have of making a playoff push this year). Jake Bloss, who is currently working out of the big league rotation, is the #2 player on BA’s most recent update of the Astros’ system. He’s followed by 2023 first-round pick Brice Matthews and another current big leaguer, outfielder Joey Loperfido.

Flaherty is playing this season on a $14MM salary, while Kikuchi is making $10MM in the final season of a backloaded three-year deal. The former is due around $4.82M for the stretch run; the latter is still owed around $3.44MM. Any salary the Astros take on would count against their luxury tax ledger, which already sits at a franchise-high $256MM (calculated by RosterResource).

The Astros will be taxed at a 32% rate for salary they absorb when their payroll is between $257MM and $277MM. Brown broadly indicated the team was open to adding salary, saying that owner Jim Crane “understands that it’s important for us to get a starter … so I don’t think payroll is going to hold us back.”

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