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Archives for August 2024

Reds Place Nick Lodolo On Injured List

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The Reds announced that left-hander Nick Lodolo has been placed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to August 24, due to a left middle finger sprain. Right-hander Casey Legumina was recalled in a corresponding move.

To this point, the Reds haven’t provided any information about how long Lodolo is expected to be out, but it’s a frustrating development nonetheless. This will be the lefty’s fourth IL stint of the season, as he has already made separate trips there due to left calf tenosynovitis, a left groin strain and a left finger blister.

This latest IL trip, whether it proves to be significant or mild, adds to a lengthy injury problem for both player and team. Lodolo also missed most of last year due to various problems in his left leg, only making seven starts on the campaign. He had an encouraging debut season in 2022, posting a 3.66 ERA over 19 starts. But the past two campaigns have been mostly defined by his lack of health and he has posted a 5.11 ERA while healthy enough to take the mound. Despite all the missed time, Lodolo will reach three years of service at season’s end and qualify for arbitration, though the injury absences will cut into his earning power.

Lodolo’s woes have been part of a constellation of injury problems for the Reds this year. Much of their projected lineup has spent at least some time out of action and the pitching staff is currently in really rough shape. Lodolo joins Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott on the IL, putting three of the clubs best starters on ice. That’s in addition to guys like Graham Ashcraft, Brandon Williamson and Christian Roa, who are also on the IL.

The Reds also traded Frankie Montas prior to the deadline, so their rotation looks far different than it did a month ago. Jakob Junis, acquired in the Montas deal, is stepping in to start today’s game. He has started in the past but hasn’t thrown more than 2 1/3 innings in any outing during the past month. He might have some workload limitations today but could perhaps be stretched out to help the Reds finish the season.

The rest of the rotation consists of Nick Martinez, Carson Spiers and Julian Aguiar. Martinez and Spiers have been in swing roles this year but have been needed in the rotation due to the aforementioned issues. Aguiar is a rookie with just two major league starts under his belt.

The Reds were off yesterday but today are starting a stretch of playing eight games in seven days, so they will need a fifth starter or some bulk innings at some point. Williamson is starting a rehab assignment but will presumably need some time to ramp up. Lyon Richardson and Connor Phillips are on the 40-man roster but neither has been posting great results this year. Justus Sheffield is around in a non-roster role but isn’t pitching well either. Prospect Rhett Lowder has just one start above Double-A and isn’t yet on the 40-man roster.

It’s a less than ideal situation for the stretch of a disappointing season. The Reds came into the year with postseason aspirations but the massive slate of injuries have handcuffed them all year. They are currently eight games out of a playoff spot and it will be very difficult to climb back into the picture with so many of their starters out of action.

Twins Claim Michael Tonkin

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The Yankees announced that right-hander Michael Tonkin has been claimed off waivers by the Twins. The Yanks had designated him for assignment in recent days. The Twins will need to make a corresponding move to open a 40-man roster spot, as well as an active roster spot once Tonkin reports to the club. Dan Hayes of The Athletic relayed news of the claim on X prior to the official transaction.

Tonkin, 34, was originally a Twins draftee (30th round, 2008) who reached the majors with Minnesota in 2013 but quickly descended into journeyman status. After spending the 2008-17 seasons in the Twins’ system — and pitching in the majors each year from 2013-17 — Tonkin spent the 2018 season with Japan’s Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters. He returned stateside in 2019 and has spent time with the Brewers, D-backs, Braves, Mets and Yankees organizations in addition to stints in the Atlantic League and in the Mexican League.

After a five-year absence, Tonkin returned to the majors with the Braves last year and pitched 80 solid innings out of their bullpen. This season, he’s bounced between the Mets, Yankees and Twins via waivers. This’ll be his second stint of the current season in Minnesota. He’ll hope for better results than he had in his first, when he pitched two innings and yielded two runs.

Tonkin seems to have found something during his run with the Yankees, however. After being claimed off waivers out of the Twins organization, he spent three months with the Yankees and pitched to a sharp 3.38 ERA with a 24.6% strikeout rate and 9.1% walk rate in 56 innings (39 total appearances). The Yankees used him primarily in low-leverage, multi-inning spots — and Tonkin took to the role quite nicely. He’d hit a rough patch over the past five weeks though, yielding 15 earned runs in his past 19 1/3 innings.

The Twins have shuffled up their bullpen mix more than they’d hoped this season, in part due to injuries. Minnesota just recently designated veteran lefty Steven Okert for assignment and passed him through waivers. Tonkin will give them a fresh arm to replace Okert. He’ll join a talented but top-heavy Twins bullpen that’s headlined by one of the game’s best one-two punches: Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax.

Giants Place Robbie Ray On Injured List

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The Giants have placed left-hander Robbie Ray on the 15-day injured list with a left hamstring strain. Right-hander Landen Roupp has been recalled in a corresponding move. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle was among those to relay the transaction on X.

Ray, 32, was acquired in the offseason with an eye toward the former AL Cy Young winner serving as a second-half reinforcement in the rotation. He underwent Tommy John surgery early in the 2023 season and was subsequently shelved through late July.

While Ray wowed with five no-hit innings and eight punchouts against the Dodgers in his return on July 24, he’s lasted a combined 25 2/3 innings across his next six starts and posted an ERA north of 5.00 in that time. Overall, he’s sitting on a 4.70 earned run average with a hefty 33.3% strikeout rate against a problematic 11.6% walk rate in 30 2/3 frames. He’s also served up six long balls — an untenable average of 1.76 homers per nine innings.

When or whether Ray returns in 2024 remains to be seen, but the Giants still have him signed for another two seasons. Ray actually has the right to opt out of his contract at season’s end, but he’s guaranteed $25MM in each of the next two seasons. Given Ray’s shaky performance on the heels of Tommy John rehab, and now a hamstring injury, it seems likely he’ll forgo that right and take the remaining two-year, $50MM guarantee on his deal.

The hope, of course, will be that Ray can return to form next season — if not all the way to his 2021 Cy Young form then at least to his 2022 levels, when he pitched 189 innings of 3.71 ERA ball for the Mariners while showing an appealing K-BB profile. That’d position him to join Logan Webb, Kyle Harrison and perhaps young arms like Hayden Birdsong and Carson Whisenhunt in the San Francisco rotation.

In the short-term, the Giants will go with a rotation featuring Webb, Harrison, Birdsong and the resurgent Blake Snell. It’s not clear who’ll step into the fifth spot in Ray’s absence. Not long after the trade deadline, when discussing the decision not to move Snell, Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi opined that the Giants possessed the best starting staff in the sport. Perhaps the Giants are indeed among the most talented groups, but it’s a top-heavy unit lacking depth and consistency — and Ray’s injury only underscores that.

Mason Black, Kai-Wei Teng and Trevor McDonald are all on the 40-man roster, but none has found any big league success (or even pitched especially well in Triple-A this year, for that matter). The Giants are also no stranger to patching things over with bullpen games and could go that route, particularly if Ray is only expected to require a short-term stay on the injured list.

Twins Outright Steven Okert

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Twins left-hander Steven Okert went unclaimed on waivers and has been assigned outright to Triple-A St. Paul, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. Minnesota designated him for assignment over the weekend. Okert has four-plus seasons of big league service, giving him more than the three years needed to reject the assignment in favor of free agency but fewer than the five years required to do so while still retaining the remainder of his salary. He’d need to forfeit the remainder of this season’s $1.0625MM salary (about $188K) to become a free agent, so it’s quite likely he’ll accept the assignment and head to St. Paul.

Acquired from the Marlins in a straight-up swap for utilityman Nick Gordon — who was also recently designated for assignment and outrighted — Okert had a decent first half but has seen his results tumble since the All-Star break. The 6’2″ southpaw pitched to a 3.86 ERA with a 22.1% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate prior to the Midsummer Classic but has been torched for a 9.82 earned run average with a 15.8% strikeout rate and 13.2% walk rate in 7 1/3 second-half frames. Overall, he’s sitting on a 5.09 ERA for the season.

Okert, 33, has been working in medium-leverage situations for much of the season but has struggled the most in his most pressure-filled spots. He’s been credited with seven holds and one save but also six blown saves. Only three relievers in baseball this season (min. 30 innings) have a lower mark in terms in Win Probability Added than Okert’s -1.84.

While Okert certainly hasn’t had his best performance in his first season with the Twins organization, he has a solid track record dating back to his Marlins days. From 2020-23, he tossed 153 1/3 innings for Miami and notched a tidy 3.40 ERA. His 10.2% walk rate in that time generally matches this year’s 10% mark, but from ’20-’23 Okert punched out 28.9% of his opponents. This year, that mark has plummeted to 20.6%. Okert’s slider remains deadly, with opponents hitting just .141/.236/.295 in the 89 plate appearances he’s wrapped up with that offering. However, they’ve absolutely teed off on his four-seamer (which has lost nearly a mile per hour in 2024), batting an eye-popping .424/.486/.636 against the pitch.

Okert will try to get back on track across the river in St. Paul, though he’ll have only a month or so to pitch his way back into consideration for the team’s likely postseason roster. If Okert isn’t added back to the 40-man roster prior to the offseason, he’ll have the right to become a free agent, as is the case with all outrighted players who have more than three years of big league service time.

Latest On Roki Sasaki’s Potential Posting

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Roki Sasaki would be one of the most talented players in the upcoming free agent class if he were available. The 6’2″ right-hander has been a star in Japan for the past four seasons. He is widely regarded as one of the best, if not the best, pitchers currently in NPB. Sasaki won’t turn 23 until November and would be a top target for any number of major league clubs.

His availability is by no means guaranteed. While MLB teams have kept a close eye on Sasaki’s status for years, he doesn’t have the ability to force his way to the majors anytime soon. As with all NPB players, he’d need nine years of service time in Japan before he qualifies for international free agency.  The only way for Sasaki to make the jump to the majors earlier than that is with the cooperation of the Chiba Lotte Marines, his NPB club.

The Marines could agree to make Sasaki available to MLB teams via the posting system. The star pitcher asked them to do just that last offseason; the team declined the request, leaving Sasaki without much of a choice but to return for his fourth full season there. It seems the way that process unfolded left the pitcher displeased.

Jeff Passan of ESPN writes that Sasaki’s relationship with the Marines is damaged by the team’s denial of his posting request. According to Passan, Sasaki is likely to renew his request for the Marines to post him during the upcoming offseason. Yet it’s entirely possible — perhaps likely — that the team will decline to make him available yet again.

There isn’t much of an incentive for the Marines to let Sasaki walk this winter. Their only potential benefit would be a reputational boost of accommodating the wish of their star player to test himself against MLB hitters. The details of the posting system and MLB’s international bonus pool rules make it far more advantageous for the Marines to hold Sasaki past his 25th birthday.

International players who are under the age of 25 are considered amateurs and are subject to bonus pool restrictions. They are technically only allowed to sign minor league contracts (although an MLB team would surely select Sasaki onto the major league roster by the start of the season).

The far bigger drawback is that teams have a hard cap on spending on international amateurs. While the precise amount varies by team, Baseball America’s Ben Badler reported in April that next year’s bonus pool allotments top out at roughly $7.56MM. Teams can tack on another few million dollars via trade, but it’s a marginal difference. Even if a team maxed out its bonus pool and offered the highest amount to Sasaki (punting the chance to sign any other amateurs of significance for the year), his signing bonus would land somewhere in the $11MM range.

That’s obviously nowhere near the open market value for arguably the best pitcher in Japan. The cases of Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto are illustrative. Ohtani made the jump to MLB at age 23 and was subject to the bonus pool limitations. He signed with the Angels in 2017 for $2.3MM. Yamamoto, who waited until he was 25 to come over, signed a $325MM contract last offseason that represented the largest deal ever for a free agent pitcher. The bonus pool restrictions very likely made a difference of hundreds of millions of dollars.

Sasaki seems willing to live with those constraints to get to the majors as quickly as possible. That doesn’t mean the Marines are willing to do the same. The posting agreement between MLB and Nippon Professional Baseball ties the NPB team’s compensation to the value of the free agent contract. An MLB team signing a posted player pays a fee to the Japanese team on top of what goes to the player. The fee is a fixed amount calculated as 20% of a deal’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of further spending.

Yamamoto’s $325MM deal came with a windfall for his former team, the Orix Buffaloes. The Dodgers paid the Buffaloes $50.625MM to release him from his contract. If the Marines were to let Sasaki walk this winter, they’d get a small fraction of that amount because of the bonus restrictions. A $10MM bonus for Sasaki would come with a $2MM posting fee for the Marines. That’s meager compensation for parting ways with their 23-year-old ace.

That could all point to the Marines holding Sasaki for two more years. If the team waits to make him available until the 2026-27 offseason, there’d be no limit on his signing bonus — and therefore no indirect cap on the posting fee that the team could receive. That’d presumably only further irritate Sasaki, but it doesn’t seem the pitcher has any leverage to force the team’s hand.

Ohtani making the jump to the majors in 2017-18 shows that it isn’t impossible for a top Japanese free agent to leave early in his posting window. Yet there are a few distinctions between Ohtani’s case and the situation in which Sasaki finds himself.

Jorge Castillo and Jack Harris wrote in the Los Angeles Times last winter that Ohtani had a stipulation in his contract with his NPB team, the Nippon-Ham Fighters, that allowed him to enter the posting system at any time. While Castillo and Harris wrote at the time that “Sasaki is thought to also have that clause in his deal” with the Marines, that doesn’t appear to be the case. Passan stated this morning that “Lotte controls the entire process and can keep Sasaki through the 2026 season if it so desires.” That the Marines were able to prevent Sasaki from being posted last winter — ostensibly against his wishes and in a manner that strained his relationship with the team — points to the club indeed having the final say.

The posting system was also different at the time in which Ohtani came over. While the posting fee is now strictly tied to the signing bonus amount, that was not the case in 2017. The previous posting system allowed an NPB team to name a price up to $20MM, independent of the bonus amount, which they’d require to grant the player permission to move to MLB. The Fighters established the maximum $20MM price, which the Angels happily paid to get Ohtani for a modest bonus. The Marines don’t have that option, so the Fighters collected a posting fee that is 10 times (or more) what Chiba Lotte would receive for Sasaki next winter.

That presents a significant impediment to Sasaki joining a major league team before 2027. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote a couple weeks ago that some MLB executives felt the pitcher might prefer to stay in Japan for another season, though it seems the Marines are the far bigger obstacle.

Lotte does not appear to be under any contractual pressure to let him leave within the next two years. Sasaki is nowhere close to the nine-year threshold for international free agency, nor the eight-year threshold that would permit him to sign with another NPB club. The NPB Players Association has begun an effort to reduce the free agency cutoffs, but that’s an ambitious collective bargaining effort that isn’t likely to be achieved in the next few months.

Sasaki has a 2.01 earned run average in 380 2/3 career innings at Japan’s top level. This hasn’t been his best season, as he carries a personal-worst 2.45 ERA through 77 frames and missed some time with arm discomfort. He nevertheless remains an incredible talent. He has struck out nearly a third of opponents in his career and has fanned 28.7% of batters faced this season. Scouts credit him with a triple-digit fastball and a potential 70-grade (plus-plus) splitter.

He’s perhaps most famous for his stretch of dominance in April 2022, when he followed up a 19-strikeout perfect game with another eight perfect innings before finally giving up a single to start the ninth. He struck out 11 over 7 2/3 innings of four-run ball for Japan’s championship team in the 2023 World Baseball Classic.

The Opener: Red Sox, Jones, Pitchers’ Duel

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On the heels of some early morning transaction news, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Red Sox 40-man move incoming:

The Red Sox are poised to select the contract of veteran left-hander Rich Hill today. Hill, 44, will have participated in the 20th MLB season of his career when he next takes the mound for his hometown team. Before the team can welcome the veteran back into the fold, however, they’ll need to clear space on the 40-man and active rosters. With no obvious candidates for a 60-day IL stint currently at the club’s disposal, that space figures to come by way of a player being designated for assignment. That decision should be coming down the pipeline later today, ahead of their game against the Blue Jays that’s scheduled to begin at 7:10pm local time.

2. Jones to return to action:

The Pirates have been without one of their best rotation arms for nearly two months now, as right-handed rookie Jared Jones has been on the 15-day IL with a lat strain since early July. That’ll change today, however, as Pittsburgh plans to activate Jones ahead of a start against the Cubs in a game scheduled for 6:40pm local time. He’ll get a tough assignment in his first start back with the club as he takes the ball opposite southpaw Justin Steele (3.07 ERA). Jones is no slouch himself, of course, as the 23-year-old righty pitched to a strong 3.56 ERA through 16 starts with the Pirates prior to his injury while striking out an impressive 26.4% of batters faced. Since Jones was never placed on the 60-day IL, only an active roster move will be necessary to make room for the rookie’s return this evening.

3. Pitchers’ Duel in Philadelphia:

After a close series opener in Philadelphia last night, Astros and Phillies fans are in for an exciting starting pitching matchup in Game 2 this evening. On the mound for Houston will be future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander in his second start since returning from the injured list. The 41-year-old veteran of 19 MLB seasons hasn’t quite pitched to the level that earned him his third career Cy Young Award back in 2022, but he’s still be an effective hurler overall with a 3.92 ERA and a 22% strikeout rate in 11 starts this year. Verlander is also coming off a solid performance against Boston his last time out, where he posted five innings of two-run ball while striking out six.

Opposite Verlander will be longtime Phillie Aaron Nola, who is enjoying a nice performance in the first season of the seven-year deal he signed back in November. In 159 1/3 innings of work across 26 starts this year, Nola has pitched to a strong 3.45 ERA with a 22.6% strikeout rate. While that production has arguably made him only the third or fourth starter in a vaunted Phillies rotation this year, it’s still a strong record commensurate with Nola’s reputation as one of the league’s top arms. The 31-year-old’s last time out was quite similar to that of Verlander, as he posted 5 1/3 innings of two-run ball while striking out five opponents. The pair are scheduled to begin their duel at 6:40pm local time this evening.

Red Sox To Select Rich Hill

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The Red Sox are selecting the contract of veteran left-hander Rich Hill, according to Robert Murray of FanSided. Corresponding moves will be necessary to make room for Hill on both the 40-man and active rosters.

Hill, 44, is now poised to pitch in the 20th major league season of his career once activated. The veteran hurler reportedly turned down major league offers over the winter in order to take an unorthodox approach to continuing his career and sign with a club in need of pitching in the second half to contribute down the stretch. Boston gave him just that opportunity after losing recently-acquired veteran southpaw James Paxton to a calf strain that ended his regular season after just three starts with Boston. Thanks in part to that injury, Hill is now back in the majors with his hometown team for the fourth time in a lengthy career that’s seen him pitch for 13 of the league’s 30 clubs. The lefty first pitched for the Red Sox from 2010-12 before returning for one-year stints with the club in both 2015 (when he shared a clubhouse with current Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow) and 2022.

It’s not yet clear what the lefty’s role in Boston will be once added to the roster, though with a relatively full rotation that features Tanner Houck, Nick Pivetta, Kutter Crawford, Cooper Criswell, and Brayan Bello it seems most likely that Hill is ticketed for a multi-inning relief role. That’ll be a major change of pace for the lefty, who hasn’t pitched in relief on a regular basis since 2014 outside of a five-appearance stint with the Padres last year after he struggled badly as a member of the rotation in San Diego. Out of the rotation, Hill has largely been a run-of-the-mill back-end starter by the results in recent years, with a 4.38 ERA (96 ERA+) and 4.36 FIP to match in 468 innings of work since the start of the 2020 season.

That might not immediately make Hill seem like an appealing candidate for a relief role, particularly when considering that he averaged just 88.4 mph on his fastball last year. With that being said, it’s worth noting that Hill’s first exposure to a relief role in a decade last year actually went fairly well: he posted a 3.38 ERA in 10 2/3 innings down the stretch with the Padres, though a 19.1% strikeout rate against a 10.6% walk rate in that limited sample size left something to be desired. Hill’s lone appearance with the Triple-A WooSox in preparation for his return to the majors saw him start the game but pitch just two innings on 28 pitches where he allowed no hits and one walk against two strikeouts. If the veteran lefty can offer that sort of production out of the Boston bullpen on a semi-regular basis, he’d be a considerable upgrade over Brad Keller in a long relief role.

The Red Sox aren’t currently in the playoff picture as they currently sit five games back of the Twins for the third and final AL Wild Card spot. That being said, Hill will be eligible for the postseason in the event that Boston manages to sneak in with a strong final month of the regular season. That would’ve been true even if he didn’t have his contract selected before the start of September because the league routinely allows players on minor league deals to participate in the postseason as substitutes for injured players, but that exception won’t be necessary for Hill because he’s now poised to join the 40-man roster before September 1.

Pirates To Move Oneil Cruz To Center Field

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Pirates manager Derek Shelton announced to reporters today that shortstop Oneil Cruz will be moved to center field. As to whether this is a permanent move or just an experiment, Shelton said “I think right now, we’re looking at him as a center fielder” per Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette on X. Isiah Kiner-Falefa will be the club’s primary shortstop for the rest of the year, per Hiles on X.

Cruz, now 25, has long been an exciting player due to his obvious natural abilities. His Statcast page features plenty of red, as he frequently features as one of the best players in the league in terms of things like exit velocity, sprint speed and arm strength.

However, there have always been questions about concerning elements in his game. One of those is his that his tremendous ability to crush the baseball also comes with huge amounts of strikeouts. And the other big question has been about whether his height would prevent him from sticking at shortstop. Cruz is listed at 6’7″ and there’s never really been a player of that size at that position for an extended period of time. The Bucs have given it a try but the results haven’t been amazing. Cruz has over 1700 major league innings at shortstop now but with -8 Defensive Runs Saved and -13 Outs Above Average.

It seems the club has decided now is time to try a change. The Bucs hovered around contention for much of the summer but they have fallen back lately. As of right now, they are eight games back of a playoff spot in the National League and would need to pass six other clubs in order to get in. The Playoff Odds at FanGraphs give them just a 0.4% chance of pulling it off while the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are even less optimistic at 0.1%.

With the season more or less on life support, the club is clearly turning its attention to the future. Center fielder Michael A. Taylor has reportedly been placed on waivers as the club hopes for someone to take on what’s left of his $4MM salary. If he is claimed, it would save the club some money and open up the position for Cruz. If Taylor isn’t claimed, the club will presumably either move him to a bench role or cut him from the roster regardless.

The remaining five weeks of the schedule will give Cruz a chance to get familiar with the position, which he has never played. He has 80 minor league innings in left field and one major league inning in that corner as well, but that’s the sum of his outfield experience. Perhaps the natural athletic abilities of Cruz, particularly his speed, can be better deployed in center field.

If he seems passable out there in center, it will naturally impact the club’s future, this offseason and beyond. He can still be retained for four seasons beyond this one, so he could give the club an anchor in center if he takes to it. Bryan Reynolds was once the club’s center fielder but he has mostly been in the corners for the past two years. Jack Suwinski got a shot up the middle after a strong 2023 season but he crashed back to earth this year.

The Bucs acquired Bryan De La Cruz from the Marlins at the deadline to try to solidify right field. He has three seasons of club control beyond this one while Reynolds is under contract through 2030 with a club option for 2031. The club also has guys like Billy McKinney, Connor Joe, Ji Hwan Bae, Joshua Palacios and Suwinski on the roster to potentially help out in the future as well.

Kiner-Falefa is a competent defender at multiple positions, including shortstop, and is under contract for another season beyond this one. The club will need a long-term solution there but he can cover the spot in the short term. Termarr Johnson, one of the club’s best prospects, is a middle infielder but hasn’t yet reached Double-A and will need some more time to climb the ladder.

If the club feels good about Kiner-Falefa at shortstop and Cruz in center, then their offseason can be spent focusing on other aspects of the roster, such as second base, first base or the bullpen. For Cruz personally, he has been a strong offensive performer despite his strikeouts. He has hit .252/.314/.459 so far in his career for a wRC+ of 111 while also stealing 30 bases. That has come with subpar shortstop defense but he could perhaps increase his future earning power if he can become a solid defensive center fielder instead.

Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery Discuss Relationship With Scott Boras

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The most recent offseason was undoubtedly disappointing for the players on the whole. Many of them signed deals well south of expectations, with the most high-profile examples being the so-called “Boras Four”. Each of Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Matt Chapman and Cody Bellinger, who are all represented by the Boras Corporation, lingered on the market deep into the offseason and ultimately signed deals below industry forecasts, though with opt-outs that will allow them to retest free agency in the future.

The two pitchers in that foursome evidently have different feelings about how this played out, based both on their actions and their words. Montgomery landed a one-year, $25MM deal with the Diamondbacks that didn’t become official until March 29. The deal also contained a $20MM vesting player option that Montgomery could unlock with at least ten starts in 2024, with his 18th and 23rd starts also adding $2.5MM to the option. On April 11, less than two weeks after that deal was signed, it was reported that Montgomery had switched his representation from Scott Boras to Joel Wolfe and Nick Chanock of Wasserman.

“I don’t know, obviously Boras kind of butchered it,” Montgomery said last week, per Mac Cerullo of the Boston Herald, “so I’m just trying to move on from the offseason and try to forget it.” Montgomery adds that, to his knowledge, he didn’t receive an offer from the Red Sox in the winter.

“Yeah, for sure. Me and my wife loved it here. She was at Beth Israel for a year, love the area, love the fans,” Montgomery said when asked whether he would have considered an offer from the Sox. “It would have been awesome if it had worked out that way, but it didn’t.”

The Herald also received a comment from Boras himself in response. “I saw what Jordan said. I know what it is to be frustrated with this game. As a former player I feel for him. But I’m also a lawyer with obligations to my clients, including former ones. So I cannot discuss what happened or the decisions Jordan made unless he gives me permission,” Boras said. “If he gives me the green light I’ll be happy to talk about it. I’ve been doing this for over 35 years. I relay all offers and relevant information to all my clients and act at their direction. They make all decisions. We wish Jordan well.”

Montgomery was frequently connected to the Red Sox both because the club was in need of starting pitching and because his wife was working in the area, as he mentioned. Most reporting throughout the offseason suggested that the two sides weren’t close to agreeing on a deal. In early March, Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported that the two sides were in contact but that Montgomery was looking for a seven-year deal that the Sox didn’t want to give out.

We can’t know for sure what sorts of discussions were taking place between Boras and the Red Sox, or any other teams, but Montgomery is clearly not thrilled with the way it played out. Not everyone places the blame on Boras though, as Blake Snell is still a Boras guy and defended him when asked about the Montgomery comments.

“My experience with Scott has been great,” Snell said yesterday, per Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic. “He told me everything that was happening, all the offers I got. So for him to just get bashed for what I believe is false, that’s not fair at all. I really strongly believe that.”

When asked about Montgomery’s tough time, Snell responded thusly: “He signed the deal that he ultimately wanted to sign,” Snell said. “He has the choice. I don’t know what other deals he was offered, but I know everything that was offered to me. It’s just sad that he thinks that way when I see Scott as a very honorable man.”

Boras has a lengthy track record of securing huge deals for his clients but it’s possible that he still could have whiffed on the recent offseason, which Snell was asked about. “Yeah, or it could just be a free agency where no one was really pushing to get anybody,” said Snell. “It sucks because that was … our year to get our deals that we worked so hard to get. But ultimately the market’s the market. You can’t control it. You can’t get upset about it the way it is. Just pitch better, find a way to do better, continue to compete. Whatever you believe you deserve, you go earn it.”

There is some logic to Snell’s framing of the winter, which was mostly defined by a lack of spending. Only four free agents got nine-figure deals in the winter, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, compared to nine in the previous offseason. Of the four from the most recent winter, three of them were fairly unique cases. One of those was the mega deal for Shohei Ohtani, who is an unprecedented talent. Two others were for 25-year-olds coming over from Asia: Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jung Hoo Lee. The fourth was for Aaron Nola. The rest of the market was modest, with solid regulars like Amed Rosario, Jurickson Profar, Randal Grichuk, Michael A. Taylor and others getting $4MM or less. It would appear that Montgomery believes Boras could have handled that environment better while Snell simply views it as something that was beyond his control.

In addition to their differing opinions about the past, both players now appear to have divergent future. Montgomery has struggled badly with the Snakes this year and was recently moved to the bullpen. As of today, he has a 6.44 earned run average through 95 innings and 19 starts. Unless he turns things around dramatically in the coming weeks, it would appear his best course of action is to take his player option and hope for better results in 2025. By making at least 18 starts this year, he has unlocked that option and raised the value to $22.5MM.

Snell, on the other hand, has been on fire after a slow start. By the end of June, he had two stints on the injured list, six starts and a 9.51 ERA. But he came off the IL in early July and has posted a 1.30 ERA in his nine most recent starts, including a no-hitter against the Reds earlier in August. The lefty signed a two-year, $62MM deal with the Giants that allows him to opt-out at season’s end. He could trigger a $30MM player option for 2025 but could also walk away with $32MM banked and then take another shot at free agency.

If he keeps putting up good numbers for the next few weeks, it’s highly likely that another trip to the open market is in the cards. Speaking of the rest of the season, Snell says that “I’ll enjoy those starts and make the most of them and we’ll figure out what happens after that later,” before adding that he has high confidence in Boras to handle whatever comes next. “Of course,” Snell said. “High confidence. Really high.”

Boras tends to be a polarizing figure in baseball circles, so the struggles of the “Boras Four” led to a lot of schadenfreude and declarations that he was “washed” or over the hill. However, Boras is well set up to be a key player in free agency again this winter. Snell, Chapman and Bellinger will all have chances to return to the open market, while Boras also represents big-name players slated for free agency this winter such as Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, Yusei Kikuchi, Sean Manaea, Tyler O’Neill, J.D. Martinez and many others. What those players will be entering another frosty market or not remains to be seen.

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