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The Opener: Coaching Hires, Dodgers, MLBTR Chat

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With just a few days until the World Series continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today:

1. Are more coaching hires on the horizon?

Yesterday saw a flurry of coaching hires announced as the Cardinals, Brewers, and Blue Jays all added new voices to their staffs. Will the current lull between playoff games spur even more movement on the coaching front? There’s certainly plenty of vacancies that need to be filled, including a complete overhaul of the coaching staff in Miami. The Marlins are surely going to wait to fill out their coaching staff until they have a new manager in place, but the Red Sox, Cubs, and Orioles are among the large number of teams with coaching vacancies that could be addressed in the coming days. And that’s before considering the possibility of coaches on short-term deals being locked up longer-term, as AJ Preller indicated yesterday he’d like to do for Padres manager Mike Shildt and certain members of his staff.

2. Dodgers media availability:

The Dodgers announced last night that they’ll make a handful of players available to the media later today. That includes first baseman Freddie Freeman, who was sidelined for Game 6 of the NLCS due to the sprained ankle that’s hobbled him since the end of the regular season. It’s possible we’ll learn more today about his availability for the World Series, and manager Dave Roberts also figures to be on tap to discuss the availability of shortstop Miguel Rojas, lefty Alex Vesia, and righty Brusdar Graterol. All three of them were left off the NLCS roster due to injuries but could be in the conversation for the World Series roster.

One other point of intrigue is that the Dodgers will likely announce their choice for Game 1 starter. The club’s entire pitching staff will be on full rest for the coming series, and it seems likely they’ll turn to either Yoshinobu Yamamoto or Jack Flaherty to start Game 1, as they did in both of their previous playoff series this October. Whoever the Dodgers select will be set to face off against Yankees ace Gerrit Cole, who has a 3.31 ERA across three postseason starts so far this year and a 2.98 playoff ERA in 120 2/3 career frames.

3. MLBTR Chat today:

With the World Series just a few days away, virtually the entire league has turned their attention towards the coming offseason at this point. If you have any questions about the upcoming winter, your team’s direction, or the impending clash between the Dodgers and Yankees, MLBTR’s Steve Adams is holding a live chat with readers at 1pm CT today. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.

Nico Hoerner Undergoes Flexor Tendon Surgery

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The Cubs announced that infielder Nico Hoerner underwent right flexor tendon surgery on October 11, with Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune among those to relay the news on X. The club hasn’t yet provided an estimated timeline for his recovery.

The news comes out of nowhere, as there was no prior indication there was anything wrong with Hoerner’s throwing arm. He didn’t go on the injured list at any point in 2024, playing in 151 games. He did miss a bit of time with hamstring tightness in May and he also suffered a hand fracture from a hit-by-pitch in June, but was back in the lineup after a few days off.

His arm strength has tailed off in recent years, however, which was perhaps a warning sign. In the 2020-22 seasons, he averaged between 81 and 83 miles per hour on his throws from second base. That dropped to 78.1 mph last year and 75.1 mph in 2024.

Hoerner is coming off his third straight season of fairly consistent production, with above-average contributions on offense, defense and on the basepaths. At the plate, he doesn’t provide a lot of power but is very tough to strike out and gets on-base enough to get above par overall. In each of the past three seasons, his home run total has finished between seven and ten while his wRC+ has been between 103 and 108.

In 2022, he stole 20 bases in 22 tries. That seems to have prompted a more aggressive approach, which led to a few more steals but also a few more outs. In 2023, he made 50 steal attempts, succeeding 43 times. In 2024, it was 31 steals in 37 tries.

Defensively, he has received strong grades at his primary position of second base, as well as filling in at shortstop. If it weren’t for the presence of Dansby Swanson on the roster, Hoerner likely could have provided strong glovework at short on a regular basis. FanGraphs has considered Hoerner to be worth between 3.9 and 4.6 wins above replacement in each of those three campaigns, reflecting his steady performance.

Prior to this news, there was a speculative case for the Cubs to make Hoerner available in trades. He and the Cubs signed an extension in 2023, a three-year pact that guaranteed him $35MM over the 2024-26 seasons. There are still two years remaining on that deal, with Hoerner to make $11.5MM next year and $12MM in 2026.

This winter’s shortstop free agent class is pretty thin. Willy Adames is the top guy and he was to be followed by Ha-Seong Kim, but Kim recently underwent shoulder surgery and it’s unclear if he will be ready for Opening Day 2025. For clubs that miss out on Adames, their best bets will be guys who are likely viewed as a tier below an everyday option, with names like Paul DeJong, Nick Ahmed and Kyle Farmer in this group.

There likely would have been some clubs interested in acquiring Hoerner and moving him back to shortstop. The Cubs could have entertained the idea since they have a strong farm system. The current top 100 list at MLB Pipeline features eight Cubs, including six that have reached the Triple-A level. Two of those are infielders Matt Shaw and James Triantos, both of whom are capable of playing second base.

There are only so many ways that the Cubs can open space for those prospects, as Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki and Swanson all have full no-trade protection. Hoerner doesn’t have such a clause. Making him available in trades could have allowed the Cubs to upgrade their pitching staff in a trade, with Shaw and/or Triantos filling the void.

Perhaps that plan will now be less viable with the news of this surgery, as clubs will naturally have some hesitation about acquiring Hoerner until his prognosis is more clear. If Hoerner ends up staying with the Cubs and missing some of the 2025 season, perhaps guys like Shaw or Triantos will have a path to Opening Day roles. Third baseman Isaac Paredes also has second base experience and could slide over, opening up the hot corner.

Preller Discusses Padres’ Shortstop Situation

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The Padres find themselves in an unfamiliar position. San Diego could be on the lookout for a shortstop despite their affinity for collecting players with experience at the position. Most of those players (i.e. Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Jackson Merrill and Jake Cronenworth) moved off shortstop. Ha-Seong Kim will be a free agent when he declines his end of a mutual option in favor of a $2MM buyout. Kim is among the most difficult free agents to project after his season was cut short by a labrum injury that required surgery.

San Diego baseball operations president A.J. Preller addressed the position as part of a conference call with reporters on Monday (links via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com and Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune). Preller said the Padres “would love to bring (Kim) back” but acknowledged the uncertain timeline on his injury.

The Union-Tribune’s Kevin Acee wrote a few weeks ago that Kim was aiming for a return in April or May. Preller left the situation more open-ended. The executive noted that Kim isn’t slated to begin a throwing program until close to the start of the season. As for a return to game action, Preller loosely floated “May, June, July” as viable outcomes.

It’s clearly too early in the rehab process for the Padres to narrow down a specific target. That uncertainty should all but close the book on the chance of San Diego issuing Kim a qualifying offer. The 29-year-old infielder would probably accept a $21.05MM salary, which is too much for the Padres to risk with Kim looking very likely to at least begin the season on the injured list.

Preller and his staff also face notable free agent losses in the bullpen (Tanner Scott), left field (Jurickson Profar) and behind the plate (Kyle Higashioka). The relief group should be strong enough to weather Scott’s departure, but the Padres will need to address a few spots in the lineup while also finding a replacement for the injured Joe Musgrove in the rotation. That could make it difficult to retain Kim.

Even if the Padres were to bring him back, they’d need a short-term replacement while he completes his rehab. If he walks, they’ll need a permanent answer. Bogaerts moved back from second base for the stretch run. The Padres seem to prefer him at the keystone, though they might not have any better options at shortstop.

Machado and Cronenworth haven’t played there in years. Nor has Tatis, who has been a full-time right fielder since returning from the injuries and suspension that wiped out his 2022 season. Merrill developed as a shortstop prospect before learning center field on the fly. The 21-year-old immediately became one of the sport’s top all-around center fielders.

Preller didn’t seem keen on the idea of moving Tatis or Merrill back to the infield. “They’d probably love that possibility. They always joke around — ’Whatever’s needed,’” the baseball ops president said. “The great part of those guys is they’re talented athletes, they can play different spots. … But Tati winning the Platinum [Glove] two years ago, and Jackson doing a tremendous job in center field this year, we know that they’re really good at what they do in the outfield.”

There hasn’t been much serious discussion about Tatis moving back to shortstop. It’s a plausible scenario for Merrill, who only moved off shortstop in deference to Kim and seems as if he can comfortably adjust to whatever position the Padres ask of him. Yet as Preller noted, it’s tempting to leave Merrill in center field with how well he played this year. San Diego doesn’t have an obvious in-house candidate to take over in center if Merrill were to come back onto the infield. They’d probably need to acquire a center fielder and the free agent market at the position is extremely thin. It’s not much deeper at shortstop, where only Willy Adames and Kim, if healthy, profile as regulars.

Cardinals Adding Jon Jay To Coaching Staff

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The Cardinals are hiring Jon Jay for a yet to be announced coaching role, as first reported by Katie Woo of the Athletic. Woo also reports that assistant coach Willie McGee has stepped down from the staff and will move into an advisory role with the front office.

Jay returns to the organization with which he spent the majority of his playing career. The former outfielder spent six seasons with the Cards, appearing in 757 games between 2010-15. Jay hit .287/.354/.384 over that stretch and was a key contributor on the 2011 World Series team. He moved into journeyman fashion after leaving St. Louis, playing for six teams before retiring in 2022.

A Miami native and University of Miami product, Jay started his coaching career with the Marlins during the 2022-23 offseason. He joined former teammate Skip Schumaker’s staff with his hometown team. Jay served as Miami’s first base coach for two seasons but was let go after Schumaker left the organization last month. Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase tweeted that the Marlins had interest in keeping Jay around, but the 39-year-old evidently preferred to look elsewhere rather than wait out Miami’s latest managerial hiring process.

Jay won’t work as a base coach in St. Louis. Woo reports that first base coach Stubby Clapp and third base coach Pop Warner will return to Oli Marmol’s staff. Bench coach Daniel Descalso, pitching coach Dusty Blake and assistant hitting coach Brandon Allen are also expected back, she writes. St. Louis moved on from hitting coach Turner Ward a couple weeks ago. That position is still unfilled, although it’s not clear if that’s the role which Jay will assume.

McGee, 65, has held the nebulous title of assistant coach on the St. Louis staff. The 1985 NL MVP has worked as a coach since the start of the 2018 season. He previously worked as a special assistant in the front office and has spent time coaching both MLB and minor league outfielders on defense. McGee is a member of the organization’s Hall of Fame.

Brewers Hire Al LeBoeuf As Lead Hitting Coach

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The Brewers are shaking up their offensive staff. Milwaukee announced on Monday that they’ve promoted Al LeBoeuf to lead hitting coach. Milwaukee also promoted Eric Theisen to hitting coach. Theisen will work as a co-hitting coach with Connor Dawson, who is returning for a fourth season. Milwaukee has parted ways with former co-hitting coach Ozzie Timmons.

Milwaukee doesn’t technically have any assistant hitting coaches. It seems Dawson and Theisen will essentially work in that capacity while LeBoeuf gets the primary job. It’s the first major league coaching gig for the 64-year-old LeBoeuf, a longtime member of Milwaukee’s minor league ranks. He joined the organization as a Double-A hitting coach in 2010. LeBoeuf worked his way to Triple-A by 2012.

Unfortunately, he experienced crippling lower body pain that year. Testing revealed blood cancer in his left hip. As Adam McCalvy of MLB.com wrote in 2013, the cancer was traced back to a severe bone bruise he’d suffered when he was hit by a pitch while playing in the Phillies’ system back in the mid-1980s. The extremely rare condition slowed LeBouef’s rise up the minor league ranks, but he fortunately beat the disease and worked his way back to coaching Triple-A hitters by 2019.

LeBoeuf has held that role for the past six seasons. He told McCalvy this evening that he recently marked 10 years cancer free and is in “great” health (X link). He’ll now get a long-awaited chance to coach big league hitters. LeBoeuf has already worked with most of Milwaukee’s young core. Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell, Tyler Black and Brice Turang have all had recent stints in Triple-A. Jackson Chourio essentially skipped the top minor league level, though he did stop there for the final week of 2023.

In addition to his longtime work with Milwaukee, LeBoeuf has coached or managed in the minors with the Phillies, Mets, Royals and Blue Jays. As a player, he topped out at the Triple-A level with the Phils.

Theisen also worked as a co-hitting coach in Triple-A this past season. A former college pitcher with Illinois State, Theisen joined Milwaukee’s minor league ranks in 2021. He has spent the past three seasons as a minor league hitting coordinator in addition to his work as Triple-A hitting coach. This’ll be his first job on a major league staff.

Timmons moves on after three seasons. He had worked on Kevin Cash’s staff with the Rays for a few years before taking the Milwaukee job. The Brewers were an above-average offensive team this year. Milwaukee turned in a .246/.326/.403 batting line. They placed in the top 10 in batting average and on-base percentage while ranking 13th in slugging. They finished sixth in runs scored.

Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays

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Despite significant injuries on the pitching front, the Rays spent much of the season's first half in or on the periphery of the Wild Card chase. The front office took advantage of a seller's market at the deadline even though the club was hovering around .500, bolstering the farm, reducing payroll and setting the stage for what could be a quick turnaround.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Jeffrey Springs, LHP: $21.75MM through 2026 (includes $750K buyout of $15MM club option for 2027)
  • Yandy Diaz, 1B: $10MM through 2025 (contract contains $12MM club option for 2026, with no buyout)
  • Pete Fairbanks, RHP: $4.667MM through 2025 (includes $1MM buyout of $7MM club option for 2026)
  • Shane McClanahan, LHP: $3.6MM through 2026 (McClanahan is arb-eligible for two more years thereafter)

2025 financial commitment: $27.766MM
Total long-term financial commitments: $40MM

Other Financial Obligations

  • Wander Franco owed $172MM through 2032; Rays unlikely to pay remainder of contract due to abhorrent allegations against Franco and subsequent legal proceedings in Dominican Republic
  • $2MM to Twins for buyout of Manuel Margot's 2025 club option

Option Decisions

  • Brandon Lowe, 2B/OF: $10.5MM club option with $1MM buyout (contract also contains $11.5MM club option for 2026 with $500K buyout)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

  • None

As we began this year's Offseason Outlook series, the top focus for the Rays was understandably on the team's roster and reshaping an offense that lacked balance, struggled against righties and was far too whiff-prone. While the series was being written, however, a far broader-reaching issue arose. The awful damage stemming from Hurricane Milton and Hurricane Helene has wrought incalculable, heartbreaking levels of damage on the country's southeast region. The big-picture focus, of course, is on helping those impacted and rebuilding those ravaged communities. In the grand scheme of things, the logistical challenges a natural disaster of this magnitude presents to a baseball team are trivial, at best.

Nonetheless, for the Rays themselves, Hurricane Milton created an unexpected and undeniable challenge the team will have to address. The roof of Tropicana Field was shredded, exposing a stadium interior that does not have a drainage system. It's not yet clear when the facility could return to a serviceable state, but the Rays aren't likely to have their home field available to them to begin the 2025 season. They'll spend as much time and energy this offseason determining where they'll play their home games as they will augmenting their roster. We at MLBTR extend our deepest and most heartfelt condolences to all affected by the tragedy in the southeast.

Turning to the baseball operations side of the offseason, the Rays have a clear picture of what went wrong. Tampa Bay entered the 2024 campaign with an injury-ravaged rotation. Starters Shane McClanahan (Tommy John surgery), Drew Rasmussen (flexor tendon surgery) and Jeffrey Springs (Tommy John surgery) were set to miss some or all of the 2024 season while recovering from surgery. Former top pitching prospect Shane Baz was finishing off recovery from his own Tommy John procedure, performed late in the 2022 season.

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World Series Roster Notes: Cortes, Graterol, Vesia

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The Yankees and Dodgers are going to be facing each other in the World Series for the first time since 1981. Since neither LCS went seven games, there will be a few off-days before the World Series is scheduled to begin on Friday. Between now and then, both clubs will be assessing some injured players to see if they could act as reinforcements for the final stretch of the postseason.

Yankees manager Aaron Boone told reporters today that there’s “a decent chance” left-hander Nestor Cortes will be on the World Series roster. Brendan Kuty of The Athletic was among those to relay that info on X. As for the Dodgers, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman was on SNLA last night and said there’s a chance both righty Brusdar Graterol and lefty Alex Vesia make the roster for the series, per Blake Harris on X.

Cortes landed on the injured list September 25 due to a flexor strain in his throwing elbow. He was shut down for about a week before starting to ramp up again, but hasn’t been on the Yankee roster for any of their postseason series so far.

Presumably, Cortes would be limited to a relief role in the World Series. He was largely working as a starter this year but has been out of action for about a month and has been throwing 10-15 pitch bullpen sessions lately.

The Yanks have had Tim Hill and Tim Mayza as their left-hander relief options of late. Both have been posting good results but in a low-strikeout, grounder-heavy fashion. Hill tossed 44 innings for the Yankees this year with a 2.05 earned run average, only striking out 10.4% of batters faced but with a massive 69.9% ground ball rate. His numbers in seven postseason appearances have been fairly similar: 1.59 ERA, 9.1% strikeout rate and 63.2% grounder rate.

Mayza tossed 18 innings for the Yankees this year with a flat ERA of 4.00. He struck out just 16.2% of batters faced but got grounders at a 55.4% clip. He has only been trusted to toss 1 1/3 innings in the playoffs thus far.

Cortes had a strikeout rate above 25% in each season from 2021 to 2023. That number dropped to 22.8% in 2024 but was still a solid mark. Pitchers can often rack up a few more Ks when moving from the rotation to the bullpen, throwing a little bit harder in shorter stints as opposed to pacing themselves for longer outings. Whether Cortes can do that or not might depend on his health, but if he’s in decent form, he should be expected to provide more punchouts than Hill or Mayza.

Vesia has made 232 regular-season appearances for the Dodgers in his career with a 2.89 ERA. His 11.5% walk rate is on the high side but he’s been able to offset that with a 32.3% strikeout rate. He’s been trusted enough to earn eight saves and 48 holds in that time.

He was on the Dodgers’ roster for the NLDS against the Padres but departed the final contest with an oblique/intercostal injury. He was left off the club’s NLCS roster but could potentially be back in the mix for the World Series. Anthony Banda is currently the only lefty option in the Dodger bullpen, so manager Dave Roberts would undoubtedly love to have Vesia back in the mix.

Graterol is more of a wild card as his 2024 has mostly been a lost season. He only made seven regular season appearances this year due to various injuries. He started the year on the IL due to both hip tightness and right shoulder inflammation, with the latter issue keeping him on the shelf until August. He made his season debut August 6 but left that outing with a right hamstring strain. He came off the IL in September and made six appearances that month but landed back on the IL in the final days of the season due to some more shoulder inflammation.

The on-and-off shoulder problems are concerning but the club might take a chance on him anyway. He’s been a key piece of their bullpen for years and was in good form as recently as 2023. He posted a 1.20 ERA over 68 appearances last year. His 18.7% strikeout rate was subpar but that’s always been his style. He limited walks to a 4.7% clip and kept batted balls on the ground 64.4% of the time.

Blue Jays Hire David Popkins As Hitting Coach

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The Blue Jays announced today that they have hired David Popkins as their new hitting coach. It was reported a few weeks back that the Jays were parting ways with previous hitting coach Guillermo Martinez.

“David’s ability to game plan and connect with players in different ways is a really exciting addition to our coaching staff,” said manager John Schneider in the club’s press release, relayed by Keegan Matheson of MLB.com on X. “He’s a true expert in all types of hitting information and will help our offensive strategy for each game. We’re looking forward to the instant impact of his relentless work ethic.”

Popkins was the hitting coach of the Twins for the past three years, but his contract ended after 2024 and it was reported a few weeks back that it wouldn’t be renewed, sending him to the open market.

In 2022, the Twins hit a collective .248/.317/.401 for a wRC+ of 106, putting them 10th in the majors. Despite that strong offense, the club finished 78-84 but fared better the following year. In 2023, the team hit .243/.326/.428 for a 108 wRC+, tied for sixth in the majors. That helped them put up a record of 87-75, winning the American League Central. The Twins defeated Popkins’ new club in the Wild Card round, sweeping the Blue Jays two games to none before being defeated by the Astros in the Division Series.

2024 was trending towards being another strong season in Minnesota but the club collapsed in the second half. They were holding a postseason spot for most of the campaign but went 9-18 in September and missed out.

The offense still performed fairly well overall, with a collective line of .246/.315/.411 and a 107 wRC+ that was ninth in the league. The bats did wilt as they club was collapsing, with the Twins hitting .218/.285/.338 for a 78 wRC+ in September, though injuries may have played a role there. Key players like Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Brooks Lee, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner and José Miranda all spent at least part of September on the injured list.

It is always difficult to separate the performances of the players from the coaching staff, but the Twins are coming off three straight seasons of above-average offense with Popkins as their hitting coach.

The Toronto offense has been trending down a bit of late. In 2022, the club hit .264/.329/.431 for a 118 wRC+, second only to the Yankees. Last year, they dropped to a .256/.329/.417 line and 107 wRC+, eighth in the majors. Here in 2024, they were barely above average, with a .241/.313/.389 line and 101 wRC+. The club has decided to make some coaching adjustments that will hopefully turn that trend around, though improving the roster via free agency and trade will be the more important factor.

Padres Plan To Discuss Extension With Mike Shildt

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Padres skipper Mike Shildt originally signed a two-year contract when hired to manage the club last offseason, but the club already has interest in keeping him around for a longer period. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller tells the Padres beat that the front office will sit down with Shildt and several members of the coaching staff to see if they can “line up” on a deal to keep them around on longer-term deals (X link via Annie Heilbrunn).

Under the 56-year-old Shildt, the Padres played at a 93-69 pace, good for second in the National League West and a Wild Card berth in the postseason. Shildt’s Padres topped the Braves 2-0 in the first round of postseason play before taking the archrival Dodgers to their limit in a thrilling, back-and-forth five-game National League Division Series. Ultimately, a Friars club that scored 21 runs over the first three games of the series was held scoreless in Games 4 and 5 alike.

Despite that disheartening finish to the season, Shildt’s first year in San Diego has to be considered a success. The Padres’ record improved by 11 games, and San Diego returned to postseason play after missing out on the heels of an 82-80 showing a year prior. As importantly, Shildt quickly won the clubhouse over. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune spoke to several Padres veterans late in the season — many of whom have been with the team for multiple prior managers — and each took the opportunity to heap praise onto the environment and culture that Shildt had brought to the clubhouse. Joe Musgrove, Jake Cronenworth and Manny Machado have all played under three different managers in San Diego (four, in Machado’s case), and all effused praise for the job Shildt has done in his first season at the helm.

Of course, while Shildt was new to the Padres organization this season, this certainly wasn’t his first experience managing. He spent three and a half seasons leading the Cardinals’ dugout, and his dismissal in St. Louis registered as a legitimate shock following the 2021 season. Shildt had originally joined the Cardinals as a scout in 2003 before getting into minor league coaching and managing. In 2017, he was added to the big league staff as a quality control coach. He eventually became the team’s third base coach, then bench coach, and then interim manager following Mike Matheny’s firing. He soon shed the “interim” label and was extended on a three-year deal. He was named National League Manager of the Year in 2019.

In the weeks prior to Shildt’s own firing in St. Louis, the Cardinals had gone on an astonishing 17-game September winning streak to come roaring back into postseason contention. They lost a then one-game Wild Card date with the Dodgers, but Shildt was generally seen as an extension candidate following that 2021 campaign. Instead, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak cited “philosophical differences” in cutting ties with Shildt and promoting current skipper Oli Marmol to the post.

Shildt landed on his feet quickly. He took a job in the Commissioner’s Office, working in on-field operations alongside former Marlins general manager Michael Hill. Just six weeks later, he was hired as a player development consultant for the Padres and allowed to work in both roles simultaneously. San Diego had previously interviewed him for their managerial vacancy which wound up going to Bob Melvin, but Shildt received another interview two years later and this time landed the job on his current two-year contract.

Barring an extension, Shildt would head into next year as the proverbial and dreaded “lame duck” manager on an expiring contract, so it’s sensible enough that the Padres — who’ve now employed Shildt in some capacity for three years — are hopeful of solidifying his standing within the organization.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Position Players

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While the baseball world’s immediate focus is on the upcoming showdown between two behemoths, the offseason looms just after the World Series. One of the first key decisions for teams is whether to issue a qualifying offer to any of their impending free agents. Clubs have until the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series to make QO decisions.

The QO is a one-year offer calculated by averaging the 125 highest salaries in MLB. This year’s price is $21.05MM. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported in August that players who receive the QO have until November 19 to decide whether to lock in that one-year salary and return to their current team. If the player rejects and signs elsewhere, his former team would receive draft compensation. The signing club would forfeit a pick (or picks) and potentially international signing bonus space. The compensation and penalties vary depending on teams’ revenue sharing and luxury tax statuses. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one.

No-Doubters

There’s zero suspense with this quintet. They’re going to receive qualifying offers, which they’ll easily decline. Soto is on his way to a record-setting deal. Adames and Bregman are locks for nine figures. Alonso has a solid chance to get there as well. It’s tougher to envision a $100MM contract for Santander, but he shouldn’t have any issue securing three or four years at an average annual value that’s around the QO price. As revenue sharing recipients, the Brewers and Orioles will get picks after the first round in the 2025 draft (assuming Adames and Santander sign for more than $50MM). The Mets, Yankees and Astros all paid the luxury tax and would only get a pick after the fourth round if they lose their qualified free agents.

Likely Recipients

We placed Hernández in the “likely” bucket last offseason when he was coming off a down year with the Mariners. Seattle opted not to make the QO and let him walk, citing a desire to cut back on the swing-and-miss profile that Hernández brings. That paved the way for the Dodgers to add him on a heavily deferred $23.5MM pillow contract. It was one of the best value signings of the winter. Hernández returned to peak form, bopping a career-best 33 homers with a .272/.339/.501 line through 652 plate appearances. That’s more than enough power to live with a few strikeouts and a fringy defensive profile in the corner outfield.

The cherry on top for L.A. is that Hernández remains eligible for the QO in his return to free agency. The Dodgers could accommodate a $21MM salary in the unlikely event that he accepts. As luxury tax payors, they’d only receive a pick after the fourth round in next year’s draft if he declines and walks. That minimal compensation is the biggest reason Hernández isn’t a lock, but he’s very likely to decline the QO in search of three or four years. The downside if he accepts is that he returns at a similar price point to the one Los Angeles offered coming off a rough season. Opting against the QO only makes sense if the Dodgers are fully committed to giving Andy Pages a look in left field next season.

Walker has seized upon a late-career opportunity with the Diamondbacks to develop into one of the sport’s best first basemen. He’s a Gold Glove caliber defender who topped 30 homers in both 2022 and ’23. He’d have gotten there again this season if not for an oblique injury that cost him the entire month of August. Walker had to “settle” for 26 homers with a .251/.335/.468 slash over 130 games.

The South Carolina product turns 34 just after Opening Day. He’s looking at four years at most and could wind up signing for two or three seasons. That could come at a comparable AAV to the qualifying offer price, though, and this is likely Walker’s only chance to really cash in on a multi-year contract. He’d likely decline a QO. If he didn’t, the D-Backs should be happy to have him back for another season at just over $21MM. The majority of MLBTR readers agree; more than 70% of respondents in a poll over the weekend opined that the Diamondbacks should make the offer.

Long Shots

It’s tough to see a qualifying offer for anyone in this group. Goldschmidt is the least likely. The Cardinals are entering a retooling year and he’s coming off the worst season of his career. The former MVP hit better in the second half than he did in the first. He should land a strong one-year deal but isn’t likely to get to $21MM.

Kim looked like a lock for the QO before suffering a late-season labrum injury in his throwing shoulder. He underwent surgery that’ll almost certainly sideline him into the early part of next year. There’s a decent chance he’d accept, which isn’t a great outcome for a Padres team that may enter the offseason already up against the budget. Payroll is a similar concern regarding Profar, who is coming off easily the best season of his career. He’s been wildly inconsistent throughout his decade-plus in the big leagues. San Diego baseball operations president A.J. Preller loves Profar, but $21MM+ is a lot for a team with a massive arbitration class and needs at shortstop and in the rotation. The Padres could try to bring him back for three or four years at a lesser annual hit.

O’Neill had a productive season for the Sox, hitting 31 homers with a .241/.336/.511 slash. He added three more IL stints to his lengthy career injury history, though, and the overwhelming majority of his production came against left-handed pitching. O’Neill’s righty bat provides a nice balance in a Boston lineup that skews heavily to the left side, but the QO price feels steep for this profile. There’s a strong chance he’d accept.

Torres would not have warranted a mention on this list a couple months ago. He had an excellent finish to the regular season (.306/.375/.417 after August 1) and has a .297/.400/.432 slash with more walks than strikeouts in October. That’s enough to at least get him back on the radar, but a QO still feels like a stretch. He’s a poor defensive second baseman whose overall season line — .257/.330/.378 in 665 plate appearances — was essentially league average.

At the trade deadline, the Yankees seemed set to turn the keystone to Jazz Chisholm Jr. and let Torres walk. They could keep Chisholm at the hot corner, but they’d need to overlook the flaws Torres showed for a good portion of the regular season. There’s a strong chance he’d accept a QO, which would put the Yanks on the hook for more than $44MM after accounting for the corresponding luxury tax hit. Tying that money up a week into an offseason where they’ll face a massive bidding war on Soto probably isn’t happening. That’s especially true since the compensation they’d receive if Torres declines (a pick after the fourth round) isn’t particularly valuable.

Ineligible

Players traded midseason or who have already received the qualifying offer in their career are ineligible for the QO. That’s largely a moot point with regard to the position player class, as no one from this group was likely to receive one anyways. Bellinger probably won’t opt out of the two years and $50MM left on his deal with the Cubs. Conforto and Pederson would’ve been fringe candidates at best even if they hadn’t received the offer earlier in their careers.

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