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Cubs Among Teams Interested In Josh Rojas

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According to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, free agent Josh Rojas is drawing interest from multiple teams. The Cubs are one such club, and Feinsand characterizes their attraction to the veteran utility man as “serious.”

Rojas, who turns 31 next June, was somewhat surprisingly non-tendered by the Mariners earlier this offseason. His bat was middling at best in 2024, but he did steal 10 bases and draw walks at a well-above-average clip. More importantly, he graded out as a strong infield defender according to several metrics, including Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and Outs Above Average (OAA). As a result, he finished with 1.9 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) according to FanGraphs and 2.1 WAR according to Baseball Reference. If he could simply repeat that performance in 2025, he would have been well worth his projected $4.3MM salary. Yet, the Mariners decided to move on.

Although Rojas played the vast majority of his games at the hot corner in 2024, he is also a capable defensive second baseman. On top of that, he can cover most other positions in a pinch. He has played shortstop, both outfield corners, and (briefly) first base at times throughout his six-year MLB career.

The Cubs are stocked with Gold Glove winners at second base, shortstop, and both outfield corners. However, they don’t currently have anyone locked in at third base. Top prospect Matt Shaw seems like the most logical choice to replace Isaac Paredes on the far left side of the infield, but Shaw has no big league experience and only 35 games at Triple-A under his belt. To that point, Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer recently said Shaw will have a chance to earn the third base job, but it’s not his just yet. Recent trade acquisition Vidal Bruján can also play third base, but given his complete lack of MLB success over the past four years, Bruján should be nothing more than a utility player for the bench. Finally, Rule 5 pick Gage Workman is a terrific defender at third base, but like Shaw, he has no major league experience – and unlike Shaw, there are serious questions about how his bat will hold up against MLB pitching.

With all that in mind, Rojas seems like a perfect fit for the Cubs. He could take over as Chicago’s starting third baseman to begin the season, batting at the bottom of the lineup and supplementing what is already one of the best defensive alignments in the league. However, he wouldn’t block Shaw if the youngster proves himself ready for everyday playing time at the big league level. Instead, he would slide into the utility job on the bench, offering a significant upgrade over Bruján.

Financially speaking, the Cubs should have no trouble paying whatever price Rojas is seeking. Presumably, he’ll end up signing a one-year contract with a seven-figure guarantee. After offloading most of Cody Bellinger’s salary earlier this month, Chicago is approximately $50MM below the first luxury tax threshold and $54MM below last year’s final payroll (per RosterResource). If the Cubs don’t land Rojas, other free agents who could address the same need at a similar price point include Jose Iglesias and Paul DeJong.

Cubs To Sign Ben Heller To Minors Contract

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The Cubs are signing Ben Heller to a minor league contract, reports Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. The right-hander is represented by Onyx Sports Management.

Heller, 33, was a 22nd-round draft pick in 2013, signing with Cleveland for a mere $2,500 bonus. However, he quickly began turning heads with his high-velocity fastball. From 2013-16, he moved up the ranks of Cleveland’s farm system from Low-A to Triple-A, pitching to a 2.77 ERA and 2.58 FIP. In 172 1/3 innings, he gave up just six home runs while striking out more than 30% of the batters he faced. All the more impressive, those numbers aren’t inflated by a dominant performance at the lower levels. He pitched to a 0.81 ERA and 1.59 FIP in 22 1/3 innings at Double-A Akron and a 2.49 ERA and 3.01 FIP in 25 1/3 innings at Triple-A Columbus.

Due to his age (he was approaching 25 by the time he was promoted to Triple-A) and the fact that he was always a reliever, Heller rarely earned much attention from prospect evaluators. However, he started to generate some buzz when he was included in the package Cleveland sent to the Yankees to acquire Andrew Miller at the 2016 trade deadline. Heller made his MLB debut for New York later that year. Unfortunately, his results were poor for just about the first time in his pro career. Over 10 appearances, he gave up five runs on 11 hits in seven innings, striking out six, walking four, and hitting two batters.

Despite his poor debut with the big league squad, Heller continued to thrive at Triple-A in his new organization. He put up a 2.73 ERA and 2.97 FIP in 62 2/3 innings for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders from 2016-17. Even better, he looked more effective in a handful of appearances in the majors in 2017, tossing 11 frames and giving up just one run.

Sadly, Heller lost almost all of his 2018 and ’19 seasons to Tommy John surgery. Since then, he has struggled to find consistent success. He made just six appearances in 2020, and the Yankees released him the following offseason. The Diamondbacks signed him to a minor league contract not long after, but a stress fracture in his elbow kept him out for the entire 2021 campaign.

Since then, he has bounced between the Twins, Rays, Braves, and Pirates organizations. He has a 6.75 ERA in 30 2/3 MLB innings for Atlanta and Pittsburgh and a 3.78 ERA in 78 2/3 innings at Triple-A. He has continued to generate high strikeout rates in the minors, but control issues have plagued him in the big leagues. Of the 148 MLB batters he’s faced over the past two years, 16.9% have reached on either a walk or a hit-by-pitch. What’s more, arm injuries were a problem again in 2024; Heller landed on the IL at the end of August with right shoulder inflammation and did not return.

At the end of the day, Heller is a no-risk, high-reward signing for the Cubs. His four-seam fastball averaged 96.3 mph in 2024 and topped out at 98 mph, while his sinker averaged 95.3 mph and topped out at 97 mph. He also throws a changeup, a cutter, a slider, and a sweeper. That’s an unusually deep arsenal for a reliever, which gives the Cubs plenty to work with if they want to adjust his pitch mix. Presumably, Heller will compete for a spot in Chicago’s bullpen during spring training.

Wade Miley Plans To Pitch In 2025, Would Prefer To Re-Sign With Brewers

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When Wade Miley went under the knife for Tommy John surgery this past April, he wasn’t sure if he’d ever return to a major league mound. He told Adam McCalvy of MLB.com that he’d wait to get through some of his rehab before deciding whether or not to retire, though he added that he’d prefer to go out on his own terms rather than due to an injury, saying “I still feel like I’ve got more in the tank.”

Today, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel offered an update on Miley’s rehab and future plans. Long story short, the veteran southpaw is doing everything in his power to get back on the field. Not only does he plan to pitch in 2025, he wants to pitch as soon as possible. It’s been less than eight months since he underwent TJS this past May, but he hopes to be pitching in games by the end of spring training and ready to pitch in the majors as soon as late April/early May. The general recovery timeline for pitchers who undergo TJS is 12 to 18 months, and Miley isn’t your typical patient – he was 37 when he had his surgery and turned 38 in August. Yet, he’s optimistic he can get back to the highest level of competition barely a year after he hit the shelf.

Interestingly, Miley suggests his advanced age could actually help him make a speedy return. While a younger pitcher might prefer to exercise the utmost caution with the future of his career in mind, Miley is only thinking in the short term. His priority isn’t to prolong his pitching career for as long as possible, it’s to get back to action as soon as he can. “I’m not dragging [out] this thing for 14 to 16 months,” he explained. “…If it doesn’t work out, it doesn’t work out. And that’s on me.”

The 2024 season was a lost year for Miley, who threw just seven innings over two outings. The year prior, he made 23 starts for the Brewers. He pitched to a 3.14 ERA, 4.33 xERA, and 5.04 SIERA over 120 1/3 innings between two stints on the IL with back and elbow issues. He put up slightly better numbers with the Cubs the year before that, although more injuries limited him to just 37 innings. His last qualified season came with the Reds in 2021. He tossed 163 frames in 28 starts with a 3.37 ERA, 4.09 xERA, and 4.52 SIERA.

All that to say, Miley can still be a productive pitcher when healthy, even though health has been hard for him to come by. Perhaps that’s enough to earn the veteran a one-year, major league deal. If not, it should make him the ideal candidate for an incentive-based minor league contract. The big question, however, is if he’ll be able to find a club that’s willing to let him attempt such a quick return from TJS. Most teams might prefer that he take a slower and steadier approach to his rehab, both to keep him healthy and to keep him on the 60-day IL until they need him for depth later in the year.

As badly as he wants to pitch in 2025, Miley clarified that he wouldn’t sign just anywhere. For one thing, he isn’t interested in joining a team that would stash him on the IL for the first several months of the season. Furthermore, geography seems to be important to him, likely because he doesn’t want to relocate his family across the country. To that end, he expressed a preference to sign with a Central division team; he’s been in the NL Central since he signed with the Reds ahead of the 2020 campaign. In particular, Miley heavily implied that the Brewers remain his team of choice. “I would sign back in the Central, preferably wearing blue,” he said. “Dark blue.”

Hogg notes that the interest is mutual, and the Brewers have spoken with Miley this winter about a new contract. While the two sides haven’t made much progress yet, that doesn’t mean a deal won’t come together. Miley’s representatives are trying to find him a guaranteed big league deal, while the Brewers are not yet willing to offer anything more than a minor league contract. Ultimately, however, Miley told Hogg that he’d be happy to sign a non-guaranteed contract with financial incentives. He’s not doing his agents any favors by saying that out loud, but it seems like Miley isn’t too concerned about the money.

As for the Brewers, they rarely spend significant money on free agent pitchers. Combine that fact with Miley’s injury history, and it’s not hard to see why they’d be hesitant to offer him a big league deal. What’s more, Milwaukee already has a full rotation including Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff, Nestor Cortes, Tobias Myers, and Aaron Civale, as well as DL Hall and Aaron Ashby. However, this team knows better than anyone that there’s no such thing as too much starting pitching depth – their rotation was plagued by injuries throughout the 2024 season – and they clearly like what Miley brings to the table. They’ve already acquired him three times before, and for what it’s worth, they won their division in all three years (2018, ’23, ’24). Thus, it’s not hard to picture these two sides coming together on a new deal for 2025.

With all that said, it’s still no guarantee Miley is pitching for the Brewers, or anyone, in 2025. He implied to Hogg that he’d rather retire than sign with a team that isn’t the right fit. He also made it clear that he doesn’t want to pitch in the majors if he isn’t going to be productive. “I don’t want to be a burden on anyone and make three starts and be done,” he said.

To that point, Miley mentions that bone spurs in the back of his elbow have been a problem so far in his rehab. If the bone spurs continue to cause trouble and prevent him from pitching this spring, it’s certainly possible he’ll decide to hang up his hat. After all, he told Hogg that he’s already accomplished everything “he ever dreamed of” in Major League Baseball over the course of his 14-year career.

CPBL’s Fubon Guardians Sign Roenis Elías

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Left-handed pitcher Roenis Elías has reportedly signed a contract for the 2025 season with the Fubon Guardians of the CPBL in Taiwan. TSNA (h/t to CPBL Stats) was the first to report the news (Chinese language link), which Francys Romero later confirmed. The southpaw will earn a guaranteed $500K USD salary.

Elías, 36, spent time with the Mariners, Red Sox, and Nationals throughout parts of seven MLB seasons. His best year was his rookie campaign with Seattle in 2014, when he pitched 163 2/3 innings over 29 starts with a 3.85 ERA and 3.96 SIERA. Unfortunately, he struggled to ever replicate that success. From 2015-22, he pitched 232 big league innings over 104 games (25 starts), putting up a 4.03 ERA and 4.49 SIERA.

Although he signed a minor league deal with the Cubs ahead of the 2023 season, Elías made only four starts for Triple-A Iowa before the organization released him to pursue a career overseas. He inked a $540K contract with the KBO’s SSG Landers in May and pitched to a 3.70 ERA in 131 1/3 innings over the rest of the year. That ERA was well below the 4.14 league average, as was his 6.0% walk rate. Those numbers were enough to earn him another season (and a raise) from the Landers, who re-signed him to a one-year, $1MM deal for the 2024 campaign.

Unfortunately, the 2024 season wasn’t quite as kind to Elías. He missed time with an oblique injury and finished with a 4.08 ERA in 123 2/3 innings. However, it’s worth pointing out that his ERA was actually better compared to the league average in 2024 than it was in 2023. He also increased his strikeout rate from 17.0% to 19.8% while slightly reducing his walk rate. Nevertheless, it seems as if the Landers opted not to bring him back for a third year with the club. Instead, Elías will take a pay cut and try to establish himself in a new foreign league.

The Opener: Luzardo, Buehler, Pending Contracts

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The Opener is back after a brief hiatus. Here are three things to watch for around baseball today:

1. Jesús Luzardo media availability:

Jesús Luzardo will speak with media members today for the first time since the Phillies acquired him in a trade with the Marlins. The left-hander was excellent in 2023 but struggled in 2024 before suffering a season-ending lumbar injury. He also spent a couple of weeks on the IL in April and May with tightness in his throwing elbow. However, the 27-year-old told reporters (including Christina De Nicola of MLB.com) earlier this winter that he has been able to perform his “normal offseason progression,” suggesting his elbow and back are “feeling really good.” Presumably, Luzardo will further discuss his health and offseason program with reporters from the Phillies beat this afternoon.

2. Craig Breslow to discuss Walker Buehler signing:

After coming to terms with free agent right-hander Walker Buehler last week, the Red Sox officially announced his one-year, $21.05MM contract over the weekend. Today, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow will meet with reporters to take questions about Buehler (per Chris Cotillo of MassLive). Cotillo adds that there are currently no plans for the pitcher himself to hold an in-person press event.

Breslow is likely to address how Buehler will slot into a starting rotation that also includes Garrett Crochet, Tanner Houck, Lucas Giolito, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, and potentially/eventually Garrett Whitlock, Patrick Sandoval, and Quinn Priester. In addition, expect Breslow to answer questions about what comes next. He has made several moves to bolster Boston’s pitching staff this winter but next to nothing to upgrade the offense.

3. Free agent contracts yet to be finalized:

A handful of reported free agent deals from December have yet to be officially announced. Those include Paul Goldschmidt’s one-year, $12.5MM deal with the Yankees; Joc Pederson’s two-year, $37MM deal with the Rangers; Teoscar Hernández’s three-year, $66MM deal with the Dodgers; and Corbin Burnes’s six-year, $210MM deal with the Diamondbacks. While the Hernández and Burnes deals were reported relatively recently (Dec. 27 and Dec. 28, respectively), it’s been more than a week since Goldschmidt (Dec. 21) and Pederson (Dec. 23) agreed to terms with their new clubs. Barring any surprising developments, both deals will most likely be finalized imminently.

Angels, Tigers Interested In Anthony Santander

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Anthony Santander has been linked to multiple teams this winter, and Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press adds two new names to that list in the Angels and Tigers.  Interestingly, Petzold describes the Angels and Blue Jays “as the frontrunners” to sign Santander, while the Tigers view the switch-hitting outfielder as something of a backup plan if they can’t sign Alex Bregman.

With Juan Soto and now Teoscar Hernandez off the market, Santander stands out as the top free agent option remaining for teams in need of outfield help.  He was reportedly looking for a five-year contract even before Hernandez re-signed with the Dodgers, and with the Yankees and Red Sox joining the Blue Jays, Angels, and Tigers as known suitors, there might enough interest for Santander to land that longer commitment even though he’s entering his age-30 season.

Santander has hit .245/.312/.476 with 134 home runs in 2571 plate appearances since Opening Day 2020, translating to a 119 wRC+.  Santander saved his most overall productive season (3.3 fWAR) for his walk year, as he hit a career-best 44 homers along with a .235/.308/.506 slash line in 665 PA for the Orioles.  He had relatively even splits from both sides of the plate, and posted above-average numbers in terms of barrel, hard-hit ball, strikeout, and walk rates.  This production earned Santander his first All-Star and Silver Slugger nods, and he even received a bit of down-ballot support in AL MVP voting.

There also some clear minuses, as Santander isn’t much of a defender or baserunner, and his offense is largely tied to his power production.  That doesn’t necessarily bode well for hitting in such homer-suppressing ballparks as Angel Stadium or Comerica Park, which creates a Catch-22 for the Angels and Tigers as they seek out some much-needed pop for their lineups.

The Angels’ emergence as a possible favorite for Santander isn’t necessarily a surprise, given how the Halos have been aggressively scouring the market for hitting help.  Los Angeles has already brought Jorge Soler to town in a trade with the Braves, and added the likes of Travis d’Arnaud, Scott Kingery, and Kevin Newman to the bench mix.  On the pitching end, Yusei Kikuchi and Kyle Hendricks were signed to free agent deals.

Santander would require a bigger commitment than any of this group.  MLB Trade Rumors ranked Santander ninth on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, and projected him for a four-year, $80MM pact.  RosterResource estimates the Angels’ 2025 payroll to sit at just under the $190MM mark, so a $20MM average annual value for Santander would still bring the Halos under their $214.7MM payroll for the 2023 season.  This would fit with owner Arte Moreno’s claim from October that the Angels would be increasing spending this winter, if not in excess of their 2023 expenditures.

If Santander was signed to presumably take on his usual right field role, he’d join Mike Trout and Taylor Ward as the starting outfielders, with Jo Adell and Mickey Moniak moving to backup duty.  There has been some reports that the Angels are exploring trading from this outfield group, which could perhaps subtract Adell or Moniak, or left field could be opened up if Ward was dealt.  Trout could conceivably be shifted to left field as a way to reduce the wear-and-tear on his body as the Halos attempt to keep their star healthy.  Since the Angels’ starting lineup is mostly full of right-handed hitters, Santander’s switch-hitting ability adds some balance.

Amusingly, Santander would also balance out a Tigers lineup that leans in the opposite direction.  Detroit’s abundance of left-handed hitting has made the addition of at least one big righty bat a clear priority this winter.  As Petzold observed, the signing of Gleyber Torres didn’t really address the lineup imbalance, as Torres will essentially replace another righty hitter in Spencer Torkelson (as Colt Keith will move to first base to accommodate Torres at second base).

In Detroit, Santander’s move into right field would shift Kerry Carpenter into DH duty against right-handed pitchers, with Torkelson or Matt Vierling then likely acting as the right-handed side of that DH platoon.  Vierling might also serve as the regular third baseman in this scenario where the Tigers signed Santander and not Bregman, depending on how third base prospect Jace Jung adjusts to big league pitching in his first full MLB season.

The Tigers’ payroll situation is pretty clear over the long term, and signing a big bat like Santander to a long-term deal would be the type of win-now move many expected from Detroit after the team reached the ALDS last season.  Conceivably, the team could sign both Bregman and Santander, yet it seems more likely that they’d just aim for one of the two players.  Bregman’s expected contract is more than double what Santander is projected to receive, yet the Tigers may be more willing to pay his steeper price tag.  While a gap remains between Detroit’s preferred offer and Bregman’s reported goal of a $200MM deal, Petzold writes that “the Tigers appear to be all-in on Bregman.”

Because the Tigers are a revenue-sharing recipient, they would pay a lesser penalty to sign a player like Santander who rejected the qualifying offer — Detroit would have to give up its third-highest pick in the 2025 draft.  Since the Angels aren’t a revenue-sharing team and they didn’t cross the luxury tax line last season, they’d have to give up their second-highest pick in the 2025 draft as well as $500K in international bonus pool money.

The Blue Jays would pay the same penalty as the Angels, and Toronto might well have even more incentive than either the Halos or Tigers to splurge for a proven bat like Santander.  The Jays have thus far come up short on all of their major free agent pursuits this offseason, and are sorely in need of offensive help for what might be Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette’s last season in Toronto.

Nationals Sign Josh Bell

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Josh Bell is heading back to Washington, as the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports that the first baseman has signed a one-year, $6MM deal with the Nationals.  The 32-year-old Bell is represented by the Boras Corporation.

Since Nathaniel Lowe was just acquired last week to be the Nats’ new everyday first baseman, Bell likely now slots in as the first-choice designated hitter.  Both the left-handed hitting Lowe and the switch-hitting Bell have pretty even career splits, but Bell could step in at first base every once in a while when Washington faces a left-handed pitcher, even though Lowe is a much better fielder.  As the DH, Bell’s switch-hitting bat also brings a bit more balance to a Nationals lineup that is heavy on lefty swingers.

In a career defined by major hot and cold streaks, Bell’s previous stint in D.C. stands out as perhaps the most consistent stretch of his nine MLB seasons.  The Nationals acquired Bell from the Pirates during the 2020-21 offseason, and Bell proceeded to hit .278/.363/.483 with 41 homers over 1005 plate appearances from Opening Day 2021 until he was dealt to the Padres as part of the Juan Soto blockbuster at the 2022 trade deadline.

Unfortunately for Bell and the Padres, his bat went cold after the deal, though his overall offensive output was enough for him to earn NL Silver Slugger honors for the DH position.  It also led to a two-year, $33MM contract with the Guardians that winter, but Bell didn’t hit particularly well in his first four months in Cleveland before he was again dealt at the deadline, which sparked another hot streak as he helped lead the Marlins to a playoff berth.

The pattern continued at last July’s deadline, as Bell again found himself on the move from the Marlins to the Diamondbacks.  Bell had hit only .239/.305/.394 in 441 PA for Miami last year, but his bat again came to life post-trade, as he hit .279/.361/.436 in 162 PA for an Arizona team that had temporarily lost starting first baseman Christian Walker to the injured list.

The short-term nature of this latest contract leaves open the possibility that Bell could be dealt at his fourth consecutive trade deadline if the Nationals aren’t in contention.  While Lowe is under arbitration control through the 2026 season, Bell and fellow free agent Michael Soroka were both inked to one-year deals, as the Nationals seem to be somewhat hedging their bets on their readiness to compete in 2025.  The Nats have struggled through five straight losing seasons since their World Series victory in 2019, yet with many members of their young core now in the big leagues, there was speculation Washington might be a little more aggressive this winter in firmly announcing the end of its rebuild.

This being said, Bell’s signing is certainly a boost for a Nationals club that had trouble producing offense last year, particularly in the power department.  The Nats’ 135 home runs ranked 29th of 30 teams, and CJ Abrams (with 20 homers) was the only D.C. player who went yard more often than Bell (19 homers) did in 2024.

With Bell and Lowe in the fold, expected improvement from Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr., and a full season from top prospects James Wood and Dylan Crews, there is plenty of reason to think the Nats can be a much more productive lineup.  If everything clicks and the team’s young pitching also takes a step forward, the Nationals might well get back to winning baseball next year, and then perhaps start spending on bigger-name talent next offseason.

Bell’s career walk and strikeout rates have consistently been above average, while his barrel rates have been more spotty.  His hard-hit ball rate dropped to 40.1% last season, slightly below the league average and his lowest mark since the 2018 season.  While there isn’t much sign of decline at age 32, per se, the big question about Bell is simply which version of the slugger is going to show up, given how his production has swung back and forth so sharply over the last few seasons.

Now that Bell is signed, third base remains a target area for Washington, as the team’s attempt to get Gleyber Torres to change positions from second base fell on deaf ears.  The bullpen remains a clear area of need, and there’s still plenty of time in the offseason for the Nationals to add a bigger name than Soroka as more of a clear-cut upgrade to the rotation.

Marlins Sign Freddy Tarnok To Minors Deal

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The Marlins have signed right-hander Freddy Tarnok to a minor league deal, Aram Leighton of Just Baseball Media writes.  The contract includes an invitation for Tarnok to attend Miami’s big league Spring Training camp.

Tarnok made his MLB debut in the form of a single appearance and two-thirds of an inning for the Braves in 2022, and Atlanta then dealt him that winter as part of the three-team, nine-player trade that saw Sean Murphy head to the Braves and William Contreras and Joel Payamps land in Milwaukee.  The Athletics’ end of the trade saw them obtain Tarnok and four other players, only two of whom (Esteury Ruiz and Royber Salinas) are still with the A’s just over two years ago.

Tarnok’s own time on Oakland’s big league roster was limited to five games and 14 2/3 innings in 2023, with the righty delivering a 4.91 ERA in that limited sample while also allowing four homers and 11 walks.  Shoulder and hip injuries hampered Tarnok for much of the year, and he ended up having hip surgery in August 2023.  Some rust wasn’t unexpected after Tarnok’s recovery, but he managed only a 7.39 ERA in 31 2/3 Triple-A innings this past season.

That time in Triple-A was spent with both the Athletics’ top affiliate and in the Phillies’ farm system, as Philadelphia claimed Tarnok off waivers this past June.  The Phils outrighted Tarnok off their 40-man roster at the start of November and he elected to become a minor league free agent.

An increase in both his walk and home run totals plagued Tarnok in the upper minors as well as in his brief time in the majors.  These issues have led to a 4.68 ERA over 92 1/3 career Triple-A innings, as well as an 11.97% walk rate and 23.44% strikeout rate.

While Tarnok has some ability to miss bats, his inability to keep the ball in the park or keep batters off the basepaths has left him looking for a fresh start entering his age-26 season.  It is possible a healthy Tarnok gets back to his much more solid pre-injury form, and for the minimal cost of a minors contract, the Marlins are betting that he can become at least a depth swingman now that he is further removed from his hip surgery.  Leighton writes that Miami will again give Tarnok a chance to start games.

Red Sox Sign Walker Buehler

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TODAY: The breakdown of Buehler’s deal is provided by MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo (multiple links), who reports that the contract also contains a $25MM mutual option for the 2026 season.  Buehler receives a $3.05MM signing bonus, $15MM in base salary, and then a $3MM buyout of the mutual option, totaling the aforementioned $21.05MM guarantee.

As much as $2.5MM in bonus money is also available.  Buehler will unlock the first $500K of that cash when he makes his 20th start of the season, and he’ll earn another $500K upon making his 22nd, 24th, 26th, and 28th starts of the season.

DEC. 28: The Red Sox officially announced the Buehler signing.

DEC. 23: The Red Sox are in agreement with right-hander Walker Buehler on a one-year deal worth $21.05MM, according to a report from Russell Dorsey of Yahoo Sports. The deal is pending a physical and includes incentives that could raise the value beyond that aforementioned figure. Buehler is an Excel Sports Management client.

It’s an interesting deal for Buehler, as the $21.05MM guarantee perfectly mirrors that of the Qualifying Offer. Both Buehler himself and Red Sox right-hander Nick Pivetta were considered borderline candidates to be extended the QO at the outset of the winter. Ultimately, the Dodgers declined to extend that offer to Buehler while the Red Sox did so for Pivetta but were rebuffed. From a financial and roster perspective, today’s deal allows Buehler to secure the same guarantee he would’ve gotten had the Dodgers extended him the QO while allowing Boston to add a veteran right-hander to its young rotation on a one-year deal that mirrors what they offered Pivetta last month.

The 30-year-old right-hander was among the league’s most talented young starters during his rookie season back in 2018, and pitched to an excellent 2.82 ERA (146 ERA+) with a 3.16 FIP in a four-season stretch from 2018-21. That stretch concluded with Buehler finishing fourth in NL Cy Young award voting behind Corbin Burnes, Zack Wheeler, and Max Scherzer in a race that seemingly cemented his status as one of the league’s top aces. That career trajectory was thrown off the rails early in the 2022 season, however. Buehler pitched to a relatively pedestrian 4.02 ERA (101 ERA+) in 12 starts for the Dodgers that year before going on the injured list in June and ultimately requiring Tommy John surgery.

Buehler wouldn’t return to a major league mound until May of 2024, nearly two full years later, and struggled badly upon returning. Additional injuries limited Buehler to just 16 starts for the Dodgers this year, and even when he took the mound the right-hander struggled badly. In all, Buehler pitched to a 5.38 ERA (72 ERA+) with a 5.54 FIP in his final regular season in a Dodgers uniform. With that being said, the righty did manage to end his season on a positive note with a solid 3.60 ERA during the club’s run to the World Series championship this year. After a brutal start against the Padres in the NLDS, Buehler fired off ten scoreless frames between the NLCS and the World Series while striking out a third of his opponents.

That combination of a strong postseason, a terrible regular season, a fraught injury history, and a dominant track record made Buehler one of the most intriguing free agents on the market this winter and perhaps the ultimate high-risk, high-reward signing. To that end, it’s perhaps no surprise that he garnered interest from a huge number of teams. In addition to the Red Sox, Buehler also garnered interest from the Tigers, Cubs, Mets, Yankees, Athletics, and Braves this winter. That wide-ranging interest made it apparent early in the winter that Buehler was likely to surpass the one-year, $15MM deal MLBTR predicted he would land as part of our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, where Buehler was ranked as the #37 free agent this winter. It even seemed to open the door to the possibility the right-hander would be able to land a mutli-year deal with opt-outs; while he ultimately settled for a straight one-year pact, his $21.05MM salary in 2025 is likely much healthier than what he would’ve received on an annual basis on a multi-year deal.

For the Red Sox, the addition of Buehler adds another arm with plenty of upside to a rotation already full of it. If Buehler manages to rebound to the form he showed earlier in his career, he’ll form a daunting front two in the Boston rotation alongside lefty Garrett Crochet with right-handers Lucas Giolito and Tanner Houck joining them to create a formidable quartet. The additions of Crochet and Buehler have also significantly deepened the group, as right-handers Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Richard Fitts, and Cooper Criswell all figure to be in the conversation for starts as well after being key pieces of the club’s rotation last year. Further down the depth chart, the Red Sox also boast interesting upside plays Quinn Priester and Michael Fulmer.

The addition of Buehler brings the club’s payroll for 2025 up to just over $175MM, according to RosterResource. The figure is substantially higher for luxury tax purposes, however, sitting just under $212MM. That leaves the club with about $29MM to work with before they surpass the first luxury tax threshold. The Red Sox last surpassed that first threshold in 2022, but there’s been no indication from club brass that the first threshold represents a hard limit on their spending amid what has been a fairly busy offseason for the club. With the rotation seemingly solidified, it seems likely the club’s priorities will now shift towards adding a right-handed bat to their lineup, whether that comes in the form of an outfielder such as Teoscar Hernández or an infielder like Alex Bregman or Nolan Arenado.

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