The Giants have moved right-hander Jordan Hicks into a bullpen role. Hicks’s spot in the starting rotation will go to right-hander Hayden Birdsong, who is now slated to start for San Francisco against the Royals on May 20. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle first suggested that the club was discussing the possibility of taking Hicks out of the rotation this afternoon, and manager Bob Melvin later confirmed the change to reporters (including Slusser) and announced Birdsong as Tuesday’s starter prior to tonight’s game.
It was just last week that Melvin suggested that moving Hicks out of the rotation was not something the Giants had begun discussing. Just a few days later, however, Hicks suffered his worst start of the season against the Diamondbacks as he was torched for five runs across just two innings of work. In that time, he surrendered seven hits (including a home run) and one walk while recording just one strikeout. It seems that outing, which raised Hicks’s ERA to 6.55 on the season, was the final straw for the Giants and convinced them that it was time to explore other options to round out the rotation behind Logan Webb, Robbie Ray, Justin Verlander, and Landen Roupp.
It’s an unfortunate end to Hicks’s time in the rotation, particularly given the fact that peripheral numbers have generally looked favorably upon the right-hander’s work with the club this year. The righty’s 20.3% strikeout rate doesn’t exactly jump off the page, but he’s walked just 7.9% of his opponents and generated an incredible 57.4% ground ball rate. That’s the sixth-highest grounder rate among all qualified starters this year, and of the five names above him only Webb has allowed less hard contact than Hicks’s minuscule 27.7% clip. That elite contact management has been held back by a sky-high .362 BABIP and a shockingly low 56.7% strand rate. Those figures suggest some bad luck and poor sequencing may be the culprit of Hicks’s struggles, and those ideas are further backed up by his 3.48 FIP and 3.74 SIERA.
That 3.79 figure the 30th best SIERA in baseball among qualified starters this year, sandwiched between Clay Holmes and Freddy Peralta. While Hicks’s peripheral numbers may suggest strong underlying performance, however, it’s hard to make the argument that this move to the bullpen was premature. Hicks is the worst qualified starter in the league by ERA this year, and his struggles actually date back to last season when he posted an ugly 8.18 ERA with a 6.44 FIP across his final five starts of the year before moving to the bullpen in the second half and returning to form with a 1.17 ERA in August.
While it’s far from impossible to imagine Hicks getting another look in the rotation at some point given those aforementioned strong peripherals, a number of injuries may be required in order for that to come to pass. After all, the Giants have an excess of starting talent that’s forced them to use well-regarded youngsters like Birdsong and recent top prospect Kyle Harrison out of the bullpen to this point in the season. Birdsong, who posted a 4.75 ERA in 16 starts as a rookie last year, has done everything that could be expected to earn another crack at starting this year with a 2.31 ERA and a 24.8% strikeout rate in 23 1/3 innings of work as a multi-inning relief arm. The righty’s 9.9% walk rate is elevated, but his 3.68 SIERA to this point in the year is even better than that of Hicks. As for Harrison, the southpaw began the season in the minors and has only made three appearances so far this year at the big league level, though he’s struck out 31.3% of opponents with a 2.25 ERA in that limited work.
I’m a huge fan, but it’s what’s best for the team. That’s the most important thing.
This was absolutely the right move for the team.
Just a shame that Hayden does not play for Orioles or Cardinals.
Why the Cardinals? He’d be stuck as the 7th or even 8th starter in AAA right now.
Lanidrac
His name is “Birdsong”! Orioles and Cardinals are “birds”.
He is also good, but you missed the joke
In that case, Hicks should play for Birmingham or Tulsa
Hicks is a class act. SFG is too strong in young starter depth to not make a move.
More to come, pressure is good.
Why the then time Giants GM thought he could move a guy from closer to starter so he didn’t have to pay starter money and Hicks would produce was always super far fetched. It’s not a secret that Hicks success is due to 105mph heater with some control and that took some control to hone in on. You think a guy like that can just do that over 6+innings a start? I think it may take Hicks some time to settle back in to the dominant relief/closer that he was but that’s always been his obvious upside. Just not a smart strategy from the moment he signed
About time, should of been done a month ago, and if Roupp dosen’t pitch well tonight Harrison should the starting job.
I think all Giants fans are hoping for Harrison to replace Roupp, and put Whisenhunt in the bullpen as the second lefty.
“…all Giants fans are hoping for Harrison to replace Roupp…”
Not this Giants’ fan.
I should qualify that I am more a Rivercats and A’s fan but enjoy watching lots of Giants games and actually like all the NL West teams.
If you saw Kyle in April for the Rivercats, you might give Roupp more time to right things.
In five April appearances, Kyle pitched 22 innings, in the last 18 innings he had 18 hits and 6 walks. I am not convinced he will come back elite. People were calling to replace Ray and now Ray is the two behind Webb. Birdsong and Verlander are a solid three-four. I would give Roupp several more starts if his stuff looks good.
Top 100, I agree. And unlike fans that decide what they think the Giants should do, teams don’t do so on the basis of the box score. The team is analyzing not just results, but stuff, intelligence, attitude, and what they see on throwing days, bullpens, etc.
Nor myself
Seems thoroughly bizarre.
Giants: “Yes, you’ve been pitching well, and the underlying stats are all strong. You even have a FIP under 3.50 and a SIERA that’s top 30, but since you’ve been the victim of bad luck, here’s your demotion.”
The Giants aren’t the Angels. They shouldn’t be making nonsensical moves such as this one. Hicks is easily, obviously outpitching Verlander, for example. He’s suppressing HR’s more than twice as well as Roupp. His raw stats are better than Birdsong’s and far better than Harrison’s, albeit SSS caveats apply.
An awful move, in sum. Transparently so, which makes me wonder what else is going on. The Giants know better than this.
I don’t really disagree entirely but the analysis of his “raw stats” here is debatable. He is giving up a lot of hard contact (45%, not getting much chase at all, and not striking a whole lot of guys out). These “raw” stats could be read more ways than one. Moving him to the pen is somewhere he’s familiar with. Actually Roupps “underlying” stats are much better and I think Birdsongs are too tho it’s all debatable to a degree.
Given the strong peripherals, along with his really good stuff, I’ve been wondering if he wasn’t tipping his pitches. After watching guys get hit after hit, it just seemed like batters knew what was coming.
Of course, that’s pure speculation on my part, and if he was tipping his pitches, it seems like the Giants’ pitching coaches would’ve also picked up on that. But it’s still hard to justify the stuff and peripherals with the results.
Are you talking about Hicks or Roupp?
Hicks.
You might be on to something.
Bad luck doesn’t explain it all to me.
Hicks has a whip of 1.522. But the other point is that he can be a huge asset to the bullpen. Know the Giants intimated that he would get a chance to start when they signed him, but they have a real chance of a wildcard and Hayden has pitched well. The return of Doval is huge too.
Put that WHIP into context. Hicks has a decent, if modest SO%, very good GB and BB rates, and an excellent Hard Hit Rate, yet his BABip is .362, That BABip could be the reason for the somewhat inflated WHIP.
Harrison is also looking like a huge asset out of the bullpen.
And the Giants did more than just intimate he’d get a chance to start. They promised him that chance, and that’s probably why he signed with the Giants. That was what he was looking for in free-agency, a promise, if not an actual guarantee, that he’d get that chance.
Good point
They sure pay him like a starter. Like an effective one. He has been less than that.
An AAV of $11M is nowhere close to starter money for a FA pitcher signing.
It is about right for a relatively inexperienced starter like Hicks was when we signed him.
Roupp had a nice night!
While Clay Holmes is a lot older, his 3 years $38 million and Hicks 4 years $44 million suggest that both were paid market rate for a converted starter.
He’s been given a good chance at the rotation last year and this year but didn’t pitch well enough to keep it. Giants made the right call putting him in the bullpen. The team said that Hicks said he wanted to do anything he could to help the Giants. Sounds like he was pretty classy & very professional.
Strong peripherals without production dont indicate pitch tipping they indicate poor luck.
King. Of. Cards, You’re probably right
I was not a fan of the Giants turning him into a starter but he’s pitched decent. Not great but decent. And he’s not walking guys which is a big thing for him. I think he should stay in the rotation but he does have some serious upside as a stud reliever so perhaps it works out.
@Jean Matrac It’s a good point. Combined with his poor strand rate, that tends to narrow it down to him tipping his pitches out of the stretch, specifically.
But that’s not something you usually demote a guy to the pen for, not when his raw stats indicate a luck-neutral ERA around 3.62 as a starter. Typically you review and correct bt starts, unless the guy is so thick he refuses to take instruction on it, which doesn’t seem like a Hicks thing to do— but I don’t know anything about him beyond what’s apparent from this distance.
—He’s also coming off a 1.66 FIP in his 3 starts fr Apr 27 to May 9, with just a .663 OPS against in spite of a .370 BABIP. Excellent control, 0 HR allowed (which suggests he’s NOT tipping). But he gets hammered on May 14th… so is he taking instruction on it but just isn’t able to implement it with guys on base without its screwing up his pitches, and the Jints figure he isn’t going to be able to get everything working at the same time while taking regular turns in the rotation?
That actually makes some sense.
JackStrawb, As I mentioned, my wondering about him tipping was just a guess by me. You make a lot of good points. Hicks may not be done as a starter, and the bullpen is a good place for him to work out his issues. The stuff is there.
Good problem to have. Now we have 100 mph+ in our bullpen and still have Harrison waiting in the wings. Numbers across the board aren’t quite there yet but pitching “should” be our strength. That and Wilmer Flores hitting three HRs every night.
Wilmer can feel Jerar rehabbing. Maybe Late Night will get the squeeze?
Yep. Lamonte might get DFA’ed at this pace
This is the right move. Hicks’ stuff plays better in shorter outings. He was a terrible starter.
FIP is a better stat to predict future performance than ERA is.
SIERA’s even better, in my humble opinion. FIP is overly reliant on HR suppression, which contains a large element of luck, It almost doesn’t care what your WHIP is as long as balls don’t leave the yard.
You also get a lot of oddities following from that, such as Ryan Walker’s current FIP of 3.10 despite 9.6 H/9, 4.2 BB/9, 1.533 WHIP, but bc in 15 innings he’s had the good luck to allow 0 HR, his FIP is oddly low. SIERA has him at a more reasonable 3.70, which makes more sense, since his arsenal does make him better than average at suppressing HR, but without taking his 0.0 HR rate as fully legit .
FIP is also more predictive, since it attempts to neutralize luck, good and bad.
I wouldn’t say home run suppression is luck. Maybe a little but most home runs are earned not luck.
Predictive is the key. Thats what we want we want to predict what will happen in the future and FIP does that. Maybe Siera does it too i really dont know i just know FIP is good.
FIP also foolishly ignores quality of contact on balls in play. As such, pitchers who have the skill to get lots of ground balls and/or avoid line drives, etc. will consistently outperform their FIP.
Who is consistently outperforming their FIP?
Julio Urias formerly of Dodgers used to always outperform his FIP. But generally it is a useful stat IMHO.
He outperformed his FIP by half a run over 700 innings. He was on a really good team that’s why. Half a run that’s it.
Farhan
If at first you don’t succeed…
He could be a little in his head, but not a great signing considering lack of experience starting. And the money paid as a starter. Farhan for sure. He probably would have traded him anyway at some point. Farhan was a guy who just likes to wheel and deal constantly. His greatest downfall.
JayRyder, Not sure where you and others are getting the idea that he’s being paid starter money. But, an $11M AAV isn’t even what a 35 year old Tomoyuki Sugano ($12M), a 42 year old Justin Velander ($15M), or a 37 year old Alex Cobb ($15M) got. A 26 year old potential starter, which is what he was when signed, that can throw 100 mph, is actually a bargain. And it was a bargain based on the promise to let him start.
Yeah it was a good signing. I thought he should have stayed in the pen but he’s been solid as a starter. A solid starter is worth 11 million a year for sure.
You’re probably right, considering the inflated pay these last couple season. He’s at 12.5 this year so on the cusp. Great money for a reliever, Low pay for a solid starter. But he’s Not a solid starter. He’s a hybrid of which Farhan figured to have him switch back n forth and get lucky in either role. Plus they paid him what they did to gain his services. Overpay again as a reliever to try and earn his way as a starter. I believe he wanted to try his hand. And now he’s becoming a lost player at the moment. Not worth either. We’ll see.
His stuff as a reliever could have made him worth 11 million a year. He had and perhaps still has(I am a Cardinals fan haven’t seen him in a while) some of the best stuff in all of baseball. He was setting records with his fastball and he has other pitches too. Command and control have always been his weakness.
Just checking his stat line(career). He had a solid first half with STL in ’22. And a better second half with TOR. That’s about it with me. The stats don’t jump off the page, But I remember his electric fastball at the time for sure. To say his stats necessitated a 4/44 mil contract ? As a starter of which he’d only had a handful of MLB starts. And a clear over pay as a reliever considering this season there are only 10 or so making over 10 million per season. The top guys over 12-13 mil are all closers. Rogers was another Giant making 12 mil and he got traded. That was an overpay too. Farhan didn’t know what he was doing in my opinion signing this guy as an experiment/hybrid to switch back n forth to the pen. His own experiment with openers and swing guys ruined the starting staff and pen. Which is why they signed Verlander this season at 15. To eat up innings with a proven starter.
JayRyder, He’s paid $12.5 this season, but the deal was 4/$44M, for an $11M AAV. MLBTR predicted 4/$40M, but assumed he would be signed as a reliever. $4M over 4 years can’t really be described as an overpay.
Plus, these are some of the relievers signed the same year as Hicks:
Robert Stephenson, 3/$33M, (hasn’t pitched since 2023.)
Reynaldo Lopez, converted reliever, 3/$30M.
Craig Kimbrel, $13M
Hector Neris, $9M
Matt Moore, $9M
David Robertson, $11.5M
Ryan Brasier, $9M
Joe Kelly, $8M
Hicks’ $11M is in line with those relievers, especially since he’s younger and IMO has better stuff than all of them. Hicks was the 3rd highest ranked reliever on MLBTR’s top 50 FAs, behind Josh Hader, who got 5/$95M, and hybrid Seth Lugo, who got 3/$45M. Hicks was definitely not an overpay as a reliever, and a bargain for a starter.
I don’t recall you saying that.
LFGMets,
” He was never good as a starter…”
Not true. He was absolutely dominant early last season. In his first 15 starts, into mid-June, he went 76.2 innings allowing only 24 ERs on 66 hits, with 68 SOs, and 28 BBs for a 2.82 ERA.
His first 7 starts were CY level, 38 IP, 8 ERs on on 25 hits with 30 SOs against 14 BBs for a 1.89 ERA.
So, it appear you were actually wrong, again.
Potential is still there for Hicks. He looked like a Cy Young candidate in his start against Houston earlier this year. Hope he can figure it out & become consistent!
He was never a tremendous bullpen arm, just a decent one. He’s never had enough command to fully take advantage of that 100 MPH+ sinker of his and his other pitches.
Nerds will point to stats to try to explain Hicks. Baseball players will actually watch the games and point to his composure and focus and a clear lack of both. Starting is a mentality that Hicks wishes he had but he just doesn’t.
Even out of the pen you can see the level of focus in Birdsong is much more conducive to success as a starter where Hicks just tries to live inning by inning. This was always the move that was coming eventually and instead of pulling Rouppe from the rotation they should try to trade arms for a bat to make room for Harrison if he isnt the guy that gets traded!
For this team to take the next step they need to trade from this pitching depth and get a few more bats. Easier said than done but if Buster wants to truly succeed he will need to identify who to trade and who to build this rotation around and the only 2 arms he shouldn’t trade are Birdsong and Rouppe.
I can’t believe nobody else sees the similarities between Rouppe and Logan Webb when he first came up. None of his pitches go straight and sometimes they break so much he misses spots because of too much break not lack of control. I guess it’s hard to see these similarities when all you do is stare at stats but don’t sleep on Rouppe eventually becoming the Ace of this team.
I think you’re right about Roupp.
Here’s your 2026 rotation.
Webb
Harrison
Roupp
Whisenhunt
Birdsong
Could be dangerous.
oldgfan, What about Ray? he won’t be a FA until 2027.
Ya Jean, I keep screwing that up. Somehow in my head I short him a year. Toss him in there, go long relief with Whisenhunt. An improbable wish would be trade him for Tucker at the deadline when the Cubs lose a starter. Depending on Luciano status, I think they will go after Kyle hard in the offseason.
oldgfan, Not sure about trading a pitcher. The old adage always holds true that you can’t have too much pitching. I agree that they’ll probably go after Tucker aggressively. The problem is Tucker. Is he willing to play in a home park so tough on LHHs for HRs?
If the money is right he should.
Sure would be nice to have a couple lefty power bats. Eldridge and Tucker. A guy named Bonds never used to have a problem with the yard. Sure miss those days. Always wonder what the statcast numbers would have been on some of his laser shots.
It may take an overpay to land Tucker.
When it comes to hitting at China Basin, Bonds was the unicorn. I got to see #500, as well as #714. I also saw him hit #300, but that was at the ‘Stick. A funny thing about that game was Bonds hit #301 in his next AB, then the HP umpire ejected him in the following AB.
Seeing LHHs with power struggle to hit HRs, now into the 3rd decade of the park, makes me appreciate Bonds even more now.
Yup. Good times. I was at the park when he hit #660 to even up with his godfather. Two giant banners unrolled on both sides of the scoreboard.
Cool moment.
At the game when Bonds hit #500, Dave, one of the friends I’d gone with, left his seat after Bonds’ 1st AB. He decided to take a walk around the ballpark, but lost track of time and was in the head when Bonds came up for his 2nd AB, and drove the ball deep to LF, where it was caught right at the wall, one foot short of #500. When he heard the crowding roaring, standing at the urinal, he thought he missed it until the cheers ended with the catch. He got kidded about that often.
Oldgfan
Webb
Ray
Birdsong
Roupp
?
Hopefully Harrison.
Agree 100% and more importantly I think Buster wants that to be the rotation next year as well. It would mean trading Ray before next year which is fine by me, the sooner the better. Orioles seem like the best trade partner with too many prospects in their farm including a log jam at C. They seem to have the opposite problem we have and might make sense for both to trade some Giants pitching for some Baltimore bats. Top 5 bullpen with Hicks in the set up role. Sign Schwarber in the offseason and this would be a ligit contender.