After missing out on the top available free agent for the second consecutive offseason when they fell short in the Juan Soto sweepstakes, the Blue Jays remained in the hunt to find a slugger who could complement Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and a hopefully resurgent Bo Bichette. Toronto had already brought Andres Gimenez into the fold as a glove-first regular, but his defensive-minded profile was never expected to be a huge boost to the lineup. After being connected to slugger Pete Alonso, third baseman Alex Bregman, and even a possible reunion with Teoscar Hernandez, the Blue Jays finally landed Anthony Santander on a five-year, $92.5MM contract that comes with enough deferred money to lower the net present value of the deal to around $70MM.
The switch-hitting Santander swatted 44 home runs for Baltimore last year while hitting .235/.308/.506 with a 129 wRC+. That power-driven profile had proven to be fairly consistent for the slugger in recent years despite his generally low on-base numbers; Santander slashed .244/.317/.478 with a wRC+ of 124 since the start of the 2022 season. That was a long enough track record to give the Jays reasonable confidence in his ability to perform as a middle-of-the-order bat for them entering his age-30 season.
It’s a bet that hasn’t paid off so far. In Santander’s first 132 trips to the plate as a Blue Jay, he’s hit just .178/.258/.314 with a wRC+ of just 65. That’s 35% worse than league average and, in conjunction with his lackluster defense, has left him tied for the eighth-lowest fWAR total among qualified major leaguers. His overall production has been similar to that of another low on-base, defensively limited corner bat in Jake Burger, whom the Rangers just optioned to Triple-A last night due to his own struggles.
A look under the hood does suggest that Santander shouldn’t be expected to be quite this bad. While his strikeout rate has jumped four percentage points from last year, that 23.5% figure is not very different than the 23.2% he posted in 2023, when he turned in a perfectly respectable 119 wRC+. What’s more, Santander is actually walking more than ever this year. He’s garnered free passes at a solid 9.8% clip, more than two percentage points higher than his career norm. While his swinging-strike rate and contact rate are both down relative to last year, both numbers are more or less in line with his 2023 season. Between a strikeout rate within his ordinary range and the highest walk rate of his career, that .258 on-base mark seems likely to improve alongside his BABIP, which sits at an extremely low .202.
Where there is a more significant negative change in Santander’s numbers is the power department. A look at Santander’s batted-ball metrics reveals some troubling signs. His 5.7% barrel rate so far this year is his lowest since 2018, and his 39.8% hard-hit rate is also the lowest he’s posted since the shortened 2020 season. His exit velocities appear to still be more or less in line with where they have been in recent years, but Santander’s launch angle is down several points. That’s resulted in a ten-point drop in Santander’s fly ball rate and a seven-point jump in his ground-ball rate. Hitting the ball into the dirt is hardly a recipe for success for a power hitter like Santander, whose sprint speed is in the 23rd percentile of big league position players, per Statcast.
Even if Santander will need to make some changes in order to get back to being that consistent 30-to-40 homer threat he was over the past two years, the deflated BABIP and strong walk rate do suggest that he should see at least some improvements, leaving him with an xwOBA 35 points higher than his actual wOBA. Even that .293 expected figure would be Santander’s worst in a full season of plate appearances, however. It’s a troubling trend and one that the Blue Jays and Santander will need to work to correct in the coming weeks in order to get his season back on track.
How do MLBTR readers think the rest of Santander’s first season as a Blue Jay will shake out? Will he manage to get things back on track well enough to post numbers similar to the expectations he’s created in recent years, or will he fall short? Have your say in the poll below:
He will be fine folks..at season end stats 238/35hrs/110 rbs.
Maybe 25 hrs and 75 rbi and that’s generous. And if he’s hitting 238 his obp will be around 285
He’s hit 35 hrs in a season once in his career and you think he will bounce back to get that? Not very likely.
He had the same number of homers last year as this year at this point and “bounced back” to 44. It’s not crazy to think 35 is attainable.
And compare the lineup around him currently to last years orioles lineup.
He was playing for a new contract last year, so it’s not surprising that he’s going to be worse this year. It happens all the time.
As was pointed out in last nights broadcast, he had exactly as many homers at this point last year as this year. He starts slow.
Some guys are just slow starters.
You appear to be comparing his season total metrics from last year with his early season metrics this year. That’s not a true comparison of what he’s doing.
Can you compare his metrics from this same time period last year?
His overall hitting was better in April last year.
Santander will rebound, but the Os were smart to let him walk and take the Top 30 pick.
Hitting on the Jays in 2025 will be fine. Slow start but they will find it.
What won’t be found is the starting pitching. As the year draws on, the starting pitching won’t be pretty. They are already looking for help from outside the organization which is a good thing.
This is strictly Fantasy based and biased lol…but I thought he was bigger/fatter. Watching Blue Jay’s / Braves series I was really surprised how short and fit he is. Sorry for the pointless comment haha…
Give Santander a chance , if I recall Edwin took until mid May to heat up and hit…..
On the other hand, WHY is the Lackie atkins still here ?
Glorified pinch hitter making $20 mil. He pairs well with the glorified backup infielder making $20 mil. Thank God for Mark Shapiro.
Always been a slow starter. Enjoy his hot spell when it comes
Santander is more of a slightly above avg player. That’s why Toronto got him on a reasonable deal
The bigger issue is Bo becoming an absolute nothing. What happened to him ?
Atleast he’s got his average back up but good lord he fell off a cliff
Bo knows diddley!🤣
He’s Tim Anderson. High average to offset the on-base issues without quality defense. Whatever team signs him long term will be regretting it after year one like the tigers and Baez.
Is anyone that dumb anymore ?
Notorious slow starter. I’d still bank on 35 plus.
I actually am concerned. I don’t trust the contract year and before that he was not the type of player that gets anywhere near a 5 year deal (he was essentially a pre-21 Eddie Rosario). I’ve seen players like that get one year deals (like Rosario in 21). There was talk of trading him among analysts before that contract year (and they weren’t expecting a big return). And at the least it’s a bit more concerning starting so slow after your new organization gave you basically 100m. But it’s a coin toss. I wouldn’t bank on him ever hitting 35 HR again but it’s possible. One tool players entering their 30s either keep evolving or fall off generally (usually the later).
When he is good, he’s very, very good. When he’s bad, he’s BAD. He always warms up with the weather.
What a poorly wordy written set of choices, Pass….
I’ll pass your comment too.
Will Santander be:
A) good
B) bad
C) meh
Better?
He had a below average start to last season too before popping off for 44 home runs. He’ll be fine.
Bad contract.
Not surprised so far. Last season was his walk year, so he gave it his all and he was playing in that cigar box known as Camden Yards. He’s an average hitter at best.
All players struggle when they sign as a FA with a new team. Forget about metrics and wait until mid June to see if he’s picked things up.
I wish people would do reasearch before posting. Santander has always started very slow in April. Yes, 44 was his career year…thanks to a tip from Judge. He’ll hit high 20s-low 30s HR wise. When he gets hot he will carry a team for weeks. It’s weird he signed for less money for 1 more year playing in Canada…yikes. No trolls, deferred money isn’t the same. I think he felt slighted that the O’s front office didn’t want to give him a long deal. Desperate teams tend to do that. I get it though. BJ’s missed out on the other FAs,front office had to get someone or feel even more backlash from frustrated fans.
Yeah, I called this back in February when he was signed.
mlbtraderumors.com/2025/01/blue-jays-to-sign-antho…
I vote:
His power outage will continue, and he’ll be an average to below average hitter come the end of the season.