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Alex Wood

Giants Sign Alex Wood

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TODAY: The signing is official.  According to multiple reporters (including John Shea of The San Francisco Chronicle), Wood will get $25MM over the course of the two-year contract, with an even $12.5MM in each season.  Based on games pitched, Wood can also earn up to $2.5MM in additional bonuses.

NOVEMBER 22: The Giants are closing in on an agreement with free agent southpaw Alex Wood, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (Twitter link). The sides are discussing a two-year deal that would pay the ACES client more than $10MM annually, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (on Twitter). Should a deal come to fruition, he’d join 2021 rotation mate Anthony DeSclafani in returning to San Francisco. The Giants announced a three-year pact with DeSclafani just minutes before news of Wood’s near-agreement with the club broke.

Wood signed with San Francisco for a $3MM guarantee last offseason and more than made good on the club’s fairly small investment. The left-hander worked to a 3.83 ERA across 138 2/3 innings and 26 starts, taking on his heaviest workload since 2018. ERA estimators were even more bullish on his performance, as Wood posted a 3.48 FIP and a 3.60 SIERA that are both a fair bit better than his bottom line numbers.

The deceptive southpaw punched out 26% of batters faced this past season, a mark that’s more than three points north of the league average. That came on the strength of an above-average 12.5% swinging strike rate, with Wood generating plenty of whiffs on both his sinker and slider. While he doesn’t throw especially hard, he’s consistently proven capable of missing bats based on his combination of movement, command and atypical look for hitters.

That impressive profile has also enabled Wood to post robust ground-ball numbers. He typically induces grounders on around half the balls in play against him (the average for starters is just under 43%), and that was again the case this past season. Wood racked up worm-burners at a 50.8% clip, a top twenty mark among the 129 hurlers with 100+ innings pitched. It’s rare to find pitchers capable of pairing that kind of strikeout and ground-ball proclivities, and Wood also owns high-end control. The southpaw has never had a season with a walk rate north of the league average, and his 6.7% mark in 2021 was more than a point lower than the league figure.

There’s little question about Wood’s effectiveness. Since debuting in 2013, he’s yet to post a season in which he’s exceeded 40 innings with an ERA north of 4.00. That’s supported by the underlying numbers, with the Georgia native typically offering the production of a #2 or high-end #3 starter when he takes the mound. At his best, Wood is capable of posting All-Star caliber numbers. He even earned a Midsummer Classic nod with the Dodgers in 2017, and his 152 1/3 innings of 2.72 ERA ball that year earned him some down-ballot Cy Young support.

The bugaboo throughout his career has been health. While Wood tossed 361 1/3 innings between 2014-15, he’s struggled to log full rotation workloads in the years since. The southpaw has only twice eclipsed 150 frames in the past six seasons, and his 2019-20 seasons were largely derailed by back and shoulder issues. He combined for just 48 1/3 innings over that two-year stretch, and those issues seemed to have a pronounced effect on his performance. Despite his typically strong track record, his ERA over those couple seasons was just under 6.00.

Wood mostly stayed healthy in 2021, although his season debut was delayed a couple weeks by a minor back surgery. Nevertheless, injury and/or workload concerns have kept Wood from cashing in on a long-term contract to this point in his career. The former second-round pick turns 31 years old in January, and his rate performance would seemingly warrant a strong three or four year deal were teams confident in his ability to consistently log 150+ innings.

Instead, it seems he’ll land a two-year pact to return to the Bay Area. That’s shy of the three-year, $30MM deal MLBTR projected entering the offseason, although he’s seemingly in line to top that estimated average annual value. The Giants can certainly afford to take on that kind of eight-figure investment over the next two seasons. San Francisco currently has just $106MM in commitments for next season, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That number dips to $45MM in 2023, when only three players (Brandon Crawford, DeSclafani and Tommy La Stella) have guaranteed deals on the books.

The rotation has been a priority for president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, general manager Scott Harris and the rest of the front office. The need to rebuild the starting staff this offseason has been evident for a while now, as Logan Webb was the only one of San Francisco’s top five starters remaining under club control entering the day. DeSclafani’s return locks in a second member of that group, and Wood would have a spot lined up as well if/when his deal is finalized. Susan Slusser of the S.F. Chronicle reported this morning the club was also making a strong run at free agent Alex Cobb. It remains to be seen whether those talks will result in an agreement, but there’d certainly be room in the rotation and on the payroll for such a move.

Of course, it also stands to reason the Giants would still like to hammer out a long-term agreement with Kevin Gausman. While a Webb – DeSclafani – Wood trio would make for a solid top three, reinstalling Gausman behind Webb and knocking DeSclafani and Wood into the mid-rotation roles in which they thrived in 2021 would make San Francisco’s rotation one of the more formidable units in the league on paper. The front office has worked to retain as much of this year’s 107-win team as possible, signing Crawford, DeSclafani and likely Wood to multi-year deals and bringing back Brandon Belt via the $18.4MM qualifying offer.

Image courtesy of USA TODAY Sports.

Minasian: Angels Hope To “Significantly Improve” Rotation This Offseason

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TODAY: The Angels also have interest in Marcus Stroman, Alex Wood, and Noah Syndergaard, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal.

NOVEMBER 9, 8:58pm: Minasian reiterated his desire to land an impact starter when speaking with Alden González of ESPN this evening (Twitter link). “Frontline starting pitching is tough to acquire. It’s very difficult,” the GM acknowledged. “That being said, we’d like to significantly improve our rotation. That’s an area where we’ll definitely look for a certain type of quality.”

2:16pm: It’s become something of an offseason tradition to note that the Angels are in the market for rotation help, and that’s again the case as the 2021-22 offseason commences. Second-year general manager Perry Minasian again told reporters at this week’s GM Meetings that pitching help is his top priority — Minasian offered a similar outlook in early October — and perhaps more importantly suggested that the team isn’t operating under any payroll constraints (Twitter links via Jack Harris of the L.A. Times). Asked about the budget, Minasian simply replied he “wouldn’t rule us out of anything.”

It’s hardly a surprise to see the Angels again in the market for pitching help — especially with regard to the rotation. Halos starters ranked 26th in the Majors with just 776 1/3 innings pitched in 2021, and their collective 4.78 ERA ranked 22nd. In terms of fielding-independent metrics like FIP and SIERA, the Angels were a middle-of-the-pack club, and the same was true of their strikeout percentage. No team in baseball saw its starters walk a higher percentage of opponents than the Angels’ nine percent mark, however, and their rotation ranked 15th in hit batters despite tallying the fifth-fewest innings of any team in MLB.

Minasian confirmed to Harris and others that the team was represented at yesterday’s Justin Verlander showcase, and MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Angels have made some early inquiries with free-agent lefties Robbie Ray and Eduardo Rodriguez. Any big-market club with a need in the rotation figures to check in with the representatives for this trio of pitchers, of course, but it’s notable that all three of Verlander, Ray and Rodriguez have received qualifying offers from their respective clubs.

If the Angels were to sign anyone from that trio, they’d need to forfeit their second-highest draft selection and $500K of their international bonus pool. For some teams, that’s a firm roadblock, but it’s at least somewhat telling that the Angels don’t seem fazed by that reality. Their early interest in this group meshes well with Minasian’s sentiment that they’re not ruling anything out as they look to address a longstanding rotation need.

In the bullpen, the Angels have made a qualifying offer of their own, extending that $18.4MM proposal to closer Raisel Iglesias. Minasian hasn’t received any indication as to whether Iglesias will accept or decline the offer — the latter seems likely — but emphasized (via Harris) that the Angels would like to have Iglesias at the back of their ’pen again in 2022, whether he accepts or declines.

The Angels’ rotation currently projects to be headlined by MVP frontrunner Shohei Ohtani, with younger options such as Patrick Sandoval, Jose Suarez, Jaime Barria, Reid Detmers, Griffin Canning and Janson Junk among the options to round things out. It’s an inexperienced group, to say the least, so it’s likely the Angels will be in the market for multiple veteran arms to join the group in the offseason. Alex Cobb previously expressed interest in returning to the club but will at least be able to field interest from other clubs now that he’s a free agent.

From a payroll vantage point, the Angels currently owe a combined $108.95MM to five players: Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, Justin Upton, David Fletcher and Ohtani. Add in a modest projection of $7.7MM in arbitration salaries — including a combined $2.8MM to non-tender candidates Junior Guerra and Phil Gosselin — as well as a slate of pre-arbitration players, and next year’s projected payroll jumps to somewhere in the $125-130MM range.

For a team that carried a $182MM payroll in 2021 and recently saw Albert Pujols’ decade-long megadeal come off the books, that’s a fair bit of flexibility. And, considering further that Justin Upton’s backloaded contract ($28MM in 2022) is off the books next winter, the outlook is a bit brighter yet. The Angels will still surely want to consider a long-term deal to keep Ohtani beyond the 2023 campaign, currently his final year of club control, but there ought to be room to bring in an arm of some note.

That said, with all of Trout, Rendon and ideally Ohtani on the books for the long haul, it might be difficult for the Angels to sign two high-end pitchers to long-term arrangements. It’s feasible that they could sign someone like Ray or Rodriguez to a long-term deal, ink another impact starter to a shorter-term arrangement — Verlander, Max Scherzer and Carlos Rodon are among the candidates for that type of deal, speculatively speaking — and then look to the trade market for another arm. The Reds, Marlins and Athletics could all look to move some starters this winter, and the Halos of have several promising young outfielders, including Jo Adell, Brandon Marsh and Jordyn Adams. Any of the previously mentioned young rotation options could also be included in a package for a more established arm.

Regardless of how things unfold, the Angels have a good bit of payroll space at their disposal for at least the next few years. The manner in which they address the rotation this winter and the outcome of their inevitable extension talks with Ohtani will dictate how things look in 2023 and beyond.

Rotation Market Rumors: Kershaw, Gausman, Giants, DeSclafani

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Clayton Kershaw’s 2021 season didn’t go as hoped. The Dodgers icon was sharp when healthy and posted his best K-BB% (25.3) since 2017, ultimately logging a 3.55 ERA in 121 1/3 innings with even better fielding-independent marks. That said, Kershaw also missed more than two months due to a forearm injury and was only able to briefly return before a recurrence of that same issue wiped him out for the postseason. Asked at his end-of-season press conference whether Kershaw would be viewed differently than other free agents because of his history with the club, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told reporters that’s likely to be the case (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Juan Toribio):

“Yeah, I think that’s fair,” said Friedman. “Obviously what he’s meant to this organization, to the city — from his standpoint, I think it’s all about what makes sense for him and Ellen and their family. … “I think, taking off my president of baseball operations hat, there’s something nostalgic and great about Kersh playing with one team and being able to win another championship and having a parade.”

Friedman noted that Kershaw has earned the right to do what’s best for his family but spoke glowingly of the lefty’s legacy and implied a desire to continue the relationship. Kershaw reportedly won’t require surgery, and the Dodgers will have the option of making a qualifying offer to the veteran southpaw.

More notes on the looming free-agent market for starting pitchers…

  • There’s a “strong” chance that the Giants will push to work out a multi-year deal to keep Kevin Gausman atop their rotation, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. The Giants value the chemistry that was developed during this year’s postseason push and have interest in maintaining some continuity, which could lead them to explore reunions with any of Gausman, Anthony DeSclafani and Alex Wood. San Francisco president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has already gone on record to call the rotation the team’s “number one priority” this offseason, no surprise given the impending free agencies of Gausman, DeSclafani, Wood and Johnny Cueto (whose $22MM club option will assuredly be bought out for $5MM). The Giants have about as much payroll flexibility as any team in baseball, giving Zaidi and his staff myriad options in rebuilding the rotation over the coming months. It certainly stands to reason they’ll be active in the market for Gausman, who has an even 3.00 ERA with stellar strikeout and walk numbers (30% and 6.5%, respectively) over 251 2/3 innings in black and orange since the start of 2020.
  • Gausman received a qualifying offer last winter, making him ineligible for another in his career. The Giants will have to decide whether to offer an $18.4MM QO to one or both of DeSclafani and Wood in the coming days, though. Grant Brisbee of the Athletic opines the club should offer a QO to DeSclafani based on the aforementioned rotation uncertainty and payroll flexibility. Signed to a bounceback deal last offseason following a poor 2020 with the Reds, DeSclafani made 31 starts and worked 167 2/3 innings of 3.17 ERA/4.11 SIERA ball this past season. Brisbee doesn’t expect San Francisco to risk that lofty one-year sum on a QO for Wood, however. Also a low-cost flier last winter, Wood impressed with 138 2/3 frames with a 3.83 ERA/3.60 SIERA. Injuries limited the veteran southpaw to just 48 1/3 combined innings from 2019-20, though, and it remains to be seen how much of an effect durability concerns could have on Wood’s free agent market this time around.

Farhan Zaidi Addresses Giants’ Rotation, Posey, Belt

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This morning, Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi addressed the club’s priorities ahead of what’s sure to be a busy offseason (via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area and Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic). Zaidi made clear the team regards its starting rotation as its “number one priority.” The Giants’ president also effectively confirmed they intend to bring back Buster Posey (by at least exercising his $22MM club option) and hope to re-sign Brandon Belt for what would be his twelfth season in San Francisco.

That the Giants intend to focus their offseason attention on addressing their needs in the rotation comes as no surprise. Presuming they pay Johnny Cueto’s $5MM buyout rather than pick up his $22MM option, four of the five members of a group that led the club to a 3.44 rotation ERA (Kevin Gausman, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood, and Cueto) are set to hit free agency. Only breakout star Logan Webb, who won’t reach free agency until at least 2026, remains under team control.

Zaidi made clear he hopes to bring back at least some of this year’s rotation, stating that “we want to keep as much of this group together as we can,” but he’ll face stiff competition for several of the arms in question. Gausman figures to be among the top starters on the market (alongside Max Scherzer, Robbie Ray, and Marcus Stroman) and won’t be eligible for the qualifying offer that might have scared off some suitors after he accepted the Giants’ QO last winter. DeSclafani (who made $6MM in 2021) and Wood ($3MM) are each in line to land much bigger salaries moving forward after each posted a bounceback year in his first season in the Golden City.

Zaidi’s confirmation that the club plans to keep Posey in the mix for 2022 is similarly unsurprising after the longtime Giants backstop put up a .304/.390/.499 line in 2021 after sitting out the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. The club’s intention to either pick up Posey’s 2022 option or sign him to an extension had also already been reported in August by MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, but Zaidi’s comments reiterate the commitment of Giants’ brass to their franchise catcher. Still, as Posey will be entering his age-35 season, any extension is likely to be on the shorter side, perhaps similar to the two-year pact reached with shortstop Brandon Crawford in June.

Belt put up a similarly excellent .274/.378/.597 line in 2021 (albeit in only 381 plate appearances), so the club will likely face some competition in re-signing the first baseman from two of its three 2010’s title teams. Zaidi told reporters today he’d already been in dialogue with Belt’s representation before the season’s end and they still hope to re-sign him.

After a 107-win season that ended in heartbreaking fashion, the Giants’ desire to run it back with a similar squad is certainly understandable. The Giants have largely bucked the youth wave sweeping the game, and whether or not manager Gabe Kapler can deliver the mix-and-match lineup magic of 2021 for another year remains to be seen. Crucially, so does their ability to bring back the bulk of a rotation that put them in position to lead the big leagues in wins.

Giants Notes: Bryant, Watson, Wood

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As the Giants do battle in Game 3 of the NLDS against the Dodgers, Kris Bryant will be manning first base. Before the game, the versatile Bryant offered John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle a positive review of his time out west, drawing comparisons to the fun, winning culture cultivated during the Cubs’ 2016 playoff run and suggesting openness to a longer-term arrangement. Whether there’s enough mutual interest in a reunion will likely come down to dollars, but this endorsement will only serve to intensify reunion rumors between Bryant, a West Coast native, and San Francisco in the months ahead.

A couple other notes out of the Bay Area…

  • Left-handed reliever Tony Watson is working his way back from a shoulder strain in hopes of returning to a potential Giants’ NLCS roster. The veteran acknowledged to Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic however that he may be running out of time. Advancing past the Dodgers is the Giants’ chief objective at the moment, but if they do just that, it would be a boon to their pitching staff if Watson returned. Acquired in a mid-season trade with the Angels, Watson dominated for the first-place club down the stretch— in 26 appearances he produced a stingy 4.4% walk rate, a sub-3 ERA (140 ERA+), and was among the best in the league at limiting hard contact.
  • J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group meanwhile offered some insight into another barrel-dodging left-hander. Alex Wood spoke to Hoornstra about his decision to sign with the Giants this past offseason after securing a ring with the Dodgers during last year’s campaign. Wood spoke glowingly of his time in LA but cited his relationship with Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and a clearer path to consistent starts as a reason to move on. Signed to a one-year, $3MM contract, Wood’s performance has been one of several unmitigated successes for the upstart Giants this year. Boasting above-average strikeout, walk, and groundball rates of 26%, 6.7%, and 50%, Wood helped his club across 26 starts to win the NL West by the thinnest of margins. His 3.83 ERA looks sustainable in the eyes of advanced metrics, a factor likely to play into yet an even more competitive offseason for the starter’s services.

Giants Activate Alex Wood, Designate Chadwick Tromp For Assignment

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The Giants have activated starter Alex Wood from the injured list, per MLB.com’s Maria I. Guardado. Sammy Long was optioned to Triple-A and Chadwick Tromp has been designated for assignment.

Wood should slide right back into the rotation for the final few weeks of the season while auditioning for a spot in the playoff rotation. The 30-year-old southpaw has put together a resurgent year for the NL West leaders, making 23 starts and logging 125 2/3 innings with a 4.08 ERA/3.71 FIP. Despite a couple of trips to the injured list, this is the healthiest Wood has been over a full season since 2018.

Tromp has been a regular member of the Giants’ catching rotation, though clearly behind Buster Posey, Curt Casali, and Joey Bart in the hierarchy. Still, the 26-year-old has made 82 plate appearances for the Giants over the past two seasons.

Long has both started and relieved this season, taking five turns in the rotation and appearing seven times in relief. He has a 5.53 ERA/4.22 FIP across 40 2/3 innings with relatively average peripherals across the board: 21.6 percent strikeout rate, 8.5 percent walk rate, and 39.2 percent groundball rate.

Giants Place Alex Wood On COVID-19 Injured List

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AUGUST 31: Cueto has been activated from the IL to start this evening’s game against Milwaukee, the team announced. Quintana has also been activated after reporting to the club, with Vosler and Brebbia optioned in corresponding moves.

AUGUST 30: The Giants announced they’ve placed starting pitchers Alex Wood and Johnny Cueto on the COVID-19 injured list. Infielder Jason Vosler and reliever John Brebbia have been recalled from Triple-A Sacramento to take their places on the active roster.

Wood has tested positive for COVID-19, manager Gabe Kapler told reporters (including Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area). Cueto has not tested positive, but he’s feeling virus-like symptoms. The Giants will conduct an impromptu bullpen game tonight against the Brewers in place of Cueto, who had been scheduled to take the ball. The team remains hopeful Cueto could be back as soon as tomorrow.

Regardless of Cueto’s status, the Giants will be without Wood for the near future. San Francisco’s rotation depth is one of the team’s few question marks, particularly after Tyler Beede recently suffered a serious back injury in Triple-A. The Giants’ top five starters of Wood, Cueto, Kevin Gausman, Anthony DeSclafani and Logan Webb has remained remarkably healthy for much of the season. Sammy Long and the since-released Aaron Sanchez are the only other pitchers to log at least ten innings out of the San Francisco rotation.

Long could be an option to shoulder a heavier workload over the coming days, and San Francisco did just add José Quintana off waivers from the Angels. Matt Shoemaker is on hand as a potential option in Sacramento, but he’s struggled since signing a minor league deal earlier this month. San Francisco can ill-afford any sort of letup over the final few weeks of the season. While the league-best Giants are a lock to make the playoffs, they hold just a two and a half game lead over the Dodgers in the National League West.

2021-22 Qualifying Offer Candidates

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With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror and a little more than six weeks remaining in the regular season, plenty of front offices are turning their attention towards the upcoming offseason. The first notable decision for many clubs will be to decide whether to tag one or more of their top impending free agents with a qualifying offer.

As a reminder, the qualifying offer is a one-year contract offer teams can make to certain impending free agents. The precise value of the QO has yet to be calculated, but it’s determined as the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players. Last season, the QO value was set at $18.9MM. If the player accepts the offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal. If he rejects, his previous team would receive draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere.

Last season, six players (George Springer, Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman) received qualifying offers. Gausman and Stroman accepted the QO, while Realmuto and LeMahieu re-signed with their current clubs as free agents. The Reds and Astros received compensatory picks (used on Jay Allen and Chayce McDermott, respectively) when Bauer and Springer departed.

The collective bargaining agreement prohibits a player from being tagged with a qualifying offer multiple times in his career. (A list of every active big leaguer who has previously received a QO is available here). Similarly, in order to be eligible, the player must have spent the entire preceding season on the same team. Players traded midseason cannot be tagged with a QO.

With the majority of the 2021 season in the books, we can take a look at the upcoming free agent class to predict which players might wind up receiving qualifying offer this winter.

Locks

This group is fairly straightforward, as there’s very little chance any of these players would accept a qualifying offer. Correa, Seager and Freeman all have MVP-caliber upside and are locks to pull in long-term deals this winter. Semien didn’t receive a QO from the A’s after a down year in 2020, took a pillow contract with the Jays for almost the value of the QO ($18MM), and has essentially replicated his 2019 form that earned him a third place finish in AL MVP voting. He should find a big multi-year deal this time around.

Story is having a bit of a down year, but there’s no doubt the Rockies will make him a qualifying offer after not trading him at the deadline. Nick Groke of the Athletic wrote this week that Colorado hasn’t given up hope of convincing him to sign a long-term extension, but that seems unlikely given Story’s own bewilderment he wasn’t moved to a contender this summer. Whether Story is willing to return to Denver or not, he’ll receive a QO.

Kershaw, Ray and Rodón will be among the top pitchers on the market. Kershaw has spent the past couple months on the injured list due to forearm soreness, but he’s expected back in September and is in the midst of another fantastic season. So long as he’s healthy, he’s a lock for a QO. Ray and Rodón both had to settle for one-year deals after poor 2020 seasons, but they’ve each been among the best pitchers in the American League this year.

Likely

Over the past two seasons, Taylor has somewhat quietly been one of the game’s top 25 qualified hitters by measure of wRC+ and he’s versatile enough to cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. He’s not a true everyday player at any one spot and he’s making contact at a career-worst rate this season, so he falls just short of being an absolute lock for a QO. But the Dodgers would be as willing as any team to shoulder a significant one-year salary were Taylor to accept, and his body of work should be sufficient to warrant a multi-year deal regardless.

The Mets’ players in this group are two of the more interesting free agents in the class. Conforto entered the season looking like a lock for a QO and seemingly having a chance at landing nine figures with a strong platform year. He missed a month with injury, though, and hasn’t made anywhere near his typical level of impact at the plate. He’s shown some life over the past few weeks, and between his track record and age (28), Conforto still seems a good bet to land a long-term deal.

Syndergaard was a top-of-the-rotation starter at his peak, but he hasn’t pitched since 2019 because of Tommy John surgery. He’s eyeing a September return — likely in relief, given his dwindling time to build up arm strength — and his late-season form will obviously be critical to his market. The Mets should run one of the higher payrolls in the league, and Syndergaard has the upside to be an ace if healthy, so New York still seems more likely than not to make the offer.

Similarly, Verlander has essentially missed two full seasons because of his own Tommy John procedure. That’s a scary development for a pitcher who’ll be 39 on Opening Day 2022, but he was still every bit an ace when we last saw him in 2018-19. The Astros are a win-now club that runs high payrolls, so Verlander accepting a QO wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. If he declines and signs elsewhere, Houston would recoup some much-needed draft compensation after losing their past two first-round picks as punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.

Colorado reportedly showed even less interest in trading Gray than they did with Story at the deadline. There’s apparently mutual interest about working out a multi-year extension, and the QO could serve as a temporary measure to keep Gray in Denver while the Rockies and Gray’s representatives work on a long-term deal.

Rodríguez has bounced back to take the ball every fifth day this year after a scary bout with myocarditis cost him all of 2020. His ERA’s pushing 5.00, but his peripherals are far better than that bottom line run prevention and the southpaw has an established track record of mid-rotation production.

The Mariners are facing a difficult decision regarding Kikuchi, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last month. Seattle must decide whether to exercise a package deal of four successive club options at $16.5MM apiece (essentially a four-year, $66MM extension) this winter. If the Mariners don’t exercise their four-year option, Kikuchi has a $13MM player option to return to Seattle for 2022. If both parties decline their ends, the 30-year-old would hit free agency this offseason, although the M’s could then tag Kikuchi with a qualifying offer.

Given that Kikuchi will only be a free agent if he passes on a $13MM player option, the Mariners would likely make him a QO worth a few million dollars more if it comes to that — either with the expectation he’ll decline in search of a longer-term deal, or with the hope he accepts and Seattle can keep him in the fold next season without committing themselves to the additional three years of guaranteed money.

Possible

The Giants have plenty of payroll space this offseason and seem likely to try to keep most of this season’s core together. Belt has been one of the sport’s most productive offensive players on a rate basis over the past two years. But he’s also 33 years old, has a long injury history and is striking out at the highest rate of his career.

San Francisco bought low on DeSclafani over the winter after he had a tough 2020 season with the Reds. He’s bounced back to post a very strong 3.26 ERA, although his peripherals are closer to average and he’s benefitted from opponents’ .257 batting average on balls in play. The Giants will likely see 4/5 of their starting rotation hit free agency this winter, so they could be eager to bring DeSclafani back, even if that comes via a lofty 2022 salary.

Morton has had another productive season in his first year as a Brave, but his previous two teams (the Astros in 2018 and the Rays in 2020) let him reach free agency without making a qualifying offer despite his consistently strong track record. That’s presumably due to concerns about his past injury history and age. He’ll turn 38 this winter and might check his potential earning power by limiting himself to teams in the Southeastern part of the country — as he reportedly did last offseason. That could inspire the Braves to pass on a QO, but Morton continually reels off above-average performances, and this is an Atlanta front office that has been eager to dole out hefty single-year salaries for key veteran upgrades in recent years.

Iglesias looks like the top impending free agent reliever (assuming the White Sox exercise their option over Craig Kimbrel). He’s sporting an ERA under 3.00 for the fifth time in his six seasons since moving to the bullpen, and he’s never had a single-season SIERA above 3.55. Home runs have been an issue, but Iglesias gets above-average results year in and year out and has some of the best strikeout and walk numbers in the game in 2021.

Long Shots

The Giants hold a $22MM club option (with a $3MM buyout) over Posey’s services for next season. If the front office is willing to commit him a significant salary, they’ll just exercise the option rather than going the QO route. Indeed, they’re reportedly planning to do exactly that (or to potentially pursue a multi-year extension with the franchise icon). Either way, there’s no real reason to involve the qualifying offer here.

Canha would be a very plausible qualifying offer candidate on many teams. He’s been a well above-average hitter and overall performer three years running and is generally one of the game’s more underrated players. The A’s, though, didn’t make a QO to either of Semien or Liam Hendriks last season. Canha’s a Bay Area native, and his age (33 in February) will cap the length of offers he receives from other clubs. Given that, it’s not hard to envision him accepting a QO if offered. The A’s, who perennially run low payrolls and will have a loaded class of arbitration-eligible players this winter, don’t seem likely to take that risk.

Wainwright has had a fantastic 2021 season, and the Cardinals figure to be motivated to keep the franchise icon in St. Louis in some capacity. But that also looked to be true after his strong 2020 campaign, and Wainwright only wound up landing a one-year, $8MM deal. He’d be well-deserved in demanding a raise over that sum to return next season, but it remains to be seen if the Cardinals would be willing to chance more than doubling his salary  — particularly if they feel Wainwright’s motivated to remain in St. Louis rather than pursue the highest possible offers in free agency.

Kluber signed an $11MM deal with the Yankees last offseason after back-to-back seasons wrecked by injury. He pitched well through ten starts but has been out since late May with a shoulder strain. Kluber’s nearing a return to action, but his missing nearly three months only adds to prior concerns about his ability to handle a significant workload at this stage of his career.

Kim, García and Wood are all having strong 2021 seasons and could plausibly land solid multi-year deals this winter. Each has enough question marks that their teams don’t seem especially likely to offer a salary in the range of the qualifying offer, though. Kim doesn’t miss many bats; García has had extreme highs and lows throughout his career; Wood has a checkered injury history. García’s contract contains a $12MM club option that vests into a mutual option if he reaches 492 plate appearances this season. If that option doesn’t vest, the Brewers would obviously have no incentive to decline the option only to make a qualifying offer at a higher price point.

Opt-Out Clauses

Each of Arenado (six years, $179MM), Castellanos (two years, $34MM) and Martinez (one year, $19.35MM) has significant guaranteed money remaining on their contracts but can opt out of those deals this winter. Arenado and Castellanos would be locks to reject qualifying offers if they trigger their opt-out provisions, since they’d be foregoing bigger guarantees to test the market.

Martinez’s player option is of similar enough value to the projected value of the qualifying offer that he could plausibly trigger the opt-out but then accept a QO. Even if that proved to be the case, the Red Sox would probably be happy to keep him in the middle of the lineup for another season.

Ineligible

Latest On Giants’ Rotation

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Alex Wood will be activated from the injured list to make his Giants’ debut, starting Sunday’s game against the Marlins, per Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports. Wood’s contract has a unique incentive structure that will pay out an additional $150K after 12 games of recording 10 or more outs. He receives more bonus cash after 14, 16, 18, 22, and 24 such games. Starting games certainly gives Wood the best chance to hit those markers, though health will be the biggest factor for the veteran southpaw.

Because of injures, Wood hasn’t been a regular rotation arm since back-to-back 150-inning seasons with the Dodgers in 2017 and 2018. Per Spotrac, Wood has seven career trips to the injured list, twice spending more than 100 days on the shelf. Arthroscopic debridement surgery on his left elbow limited him to 60 1/3 innings during the 2016 season. A back injury tanked his lone season with the Reds. He made just 7 starts covering 35 2/3 innings that year. Wood’s back has again given him problems this season.

With Wood joining the rotation, Logan Webb will head to the bullpen. Webb earned his rotation spot with a strong spring, but he’s off to a rough start. The 24-year-old has allowed 15 hits and five walks in just 10 1/3 innings in his two starts. While the move certainly may seem like a demotion, Pavlovic points out that Webb will be just the third right-hander in the Giants’ bullpen.

Of course, given today’s apparent injury to Johnny Cueto, the Giants may need to keep Webb in the rotation after all. Cueto left today’s game with a tight lat, per Kerry Crowley of the Bay Area News Group (via Twitter). Cueto has been excellent on this young season, tossing 8 2/3 innings of one-run ball in his season debut against the Rockies. He got his second win on the season today against the Reds. The veteran logged 5 2/3 scoreless innings before being removed because of the injury.

Pitching Notes: Ohtani, Rangers, Wood, Carpenter

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Angels right-hander Shohei Ohtani won’t make his previously scheduled start this Sunday because of a blister, per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic.  It’s an issue that has troubled Ohtani since the end of March, but the two-way standout was able to make his first start against the year on April 4, and he has been a regular in the Angels’ lineup at designated hitter. Manager Joe Maddon said Friday (via Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register) that Ohtani can throw with a Band-Aid on, but he’ll need to do so without it before returning to the Angels’ rotation. Ohtani tossed 4 2/3 innings of three-run (one earned) ball with seven strikeouts, five walks and two hits allowed in his season debut on the mound. His production on offense has been tremendous, as Ohtani entered Friday with a line of .280/.333/.600 (154 wRC+) with two home runs and a pair of stolen bases in 27 plate appearances. He smashed a three-run double in his second at-bat against Toronto on Friday and then followed with a solo shot in his next AB.

  • The Rangers sent righty reliever Matt Bush to the 10-day injured list with inflammation in his pitching elbow, the team announced. He’ll undergo an MRI, according to Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. Bush has already undergone Tommy John surgery twice, so if he needs a third procedure, it could be a death blow to his career. The 35-year-old missed the previous two campaign because of arm problems, and though he was able to work his way back to the Rangers’ bullpen this season, he yielded three earned runs in as many innings before going to the IL.
  • Lefty Alex Wood’s debut with the Giants may not be far off, as manager Gabe Kapler suggested Friday the team could decide to activate him after his next outing at their alternate site, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets. The Giants signed the oft-injured former Brave, Red and Dodger to a $3MM guarantee in free agency, but back troubles have kept him off the mound since last month. He has been working back from an ablation procedure on his spine for the past few weeks.
  • Minor League Baseball has suspended free-agent righty David Carpenter for one year for a violation of its Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports. Carpenter, 35, logged a 3.69 ERA with various teams in 214 2/3 innings and parts of six seasons from 2011-19. He hasn’t found a new club since the Reds released him last September.
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