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Arbitration Eligibles

Arbitration Eligibles: Atlanta Braves

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The Braves are next in our arbitration eligibles series.

Moylan had back surgery in May and returned in September, he'll have a low innings total for 2011.  That should hold his salary at $2MM, and I think the Braves will retain him assuming they consider him healthy.

We've got Bourn down for a raise of nearly $3MM, up to $7.2MM.  Jurrjens projects for a fairly modest raise to $5.1MM.  He's tallied fewer than 300 innings over the last two seasons, and that hurts his arbitration earnings.  Prado is looking at about $4.4MM and O'Flaherty could get $2.4MM.

Our total for the Braves' five arbitration eligible players is $21.1MM.  Assuming Eric Hinske's option is picked up, the Braves would have about $88MM in commitments before accounting for minimum salary players.  That's only about $3MM below this year's Opening Day payroll of $91MM, though they have exceeded $100MM twice in the last decade. 

Matt Swartz contributed to this post.

Arbitration Eligibles: Texas Rangers

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The Rangers are next in our arbitration eligibles series.

The Rangers face one of the more sizeable arbitration classes we've encountered so far in the American League.  Blanco could be cut if the Rangers don't want to guarantee him a roster spot, though we're estimating only about $500K for his salary.  Lewis' $3.25MM club option is a slam dunk, as we're estimating a $6MM salary if he goes to arbitration.

Napoli's fantastic offensive year should push his salary to the $8.5MM range.  Cruz has again battled injuries, but he's in line for a healthy $6MM salary.  Deadline acquisition Mike Adams is looking at about $4.3MM in his last year before free agency.  Andrus, Harrison, and Murphy fall within the $2.6-3.2MM range, while relievers Lowe and O'Day project for $1.3-1.4MM.

All told the Rangers have a pretty expensive group, at an estimated $30MM not including Lewis and Blanco.  They have about $101MM in commitments for next year once you add Lewis and Yoshinori Tateyama but before minimum salary players are included.  That'd mark the Rangers' first foray past the $100MM mark since the Alex Rodriguez days, so you can see that simply squeezing in C.J. Wilson might require GM Jon Daniels to move some pieces around.  On the other hand, attendance is up over 5,000 tickets per game this year and payroll figures to be on the rise.

Arbitration Eligibles: Seattle Mariners

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The Mariners are next in our arbitration eligibles series.

Aardsma and Rodriguez are the primary non-tender candidates.  Aardsma's salary in arbitration would remain close to $4.5MM and can't go below $3.6MM.  Since he had Tommy John surgery in July, that wouldn't be good value.  Rodriguez is a $700K type player, but he hasn't done anything noteworthy this year.  Kelley also projects for $700K.  Fully recovered from Tommy John, I think the Mariners will keep him around for 2012.

Vargas and League should each land in the $4.2-4.5MM range for 2012.  They're both trade candidates, especially League having saved 34 games and counting.

If Kelley, Vargas, and League are retained, that should add around $9.4MM to the team's commitments, bringing the total to about $69MM before accounting for minimum salary players.  That'd be about $26MM short of the 2011 payroll, so the team has flexibility.

Arbitration Eligibles: Los Angeles Angels

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The Angels are next in our arbitration eligibles series.

Mathis is a non-tender candidate, though the Angels retained him last year and his performance hasn't changed much.  His salary would be virtually the same, around $1.8MM.  Though it's only been 30 innings, Williams has done a nice job and would cost only $700K or so to retain.

The Angels' entire projected infield (aside from Mark Trumbo) is arbitration eligible.  Having missed all of 2011, Morales projects to stay at the same salary, $2.975MM.  We've got Kendrick for $5.1MM, Aybar for $4.5MM, and Callaspo for $3MM.  The middle infield tandem of Kendrick and Aybar will be entering their walk years.

If Mathis is cut loose, the Angels' five arbitration eligible players could cost $16.275MM.  Adding in players under contract for 2012, the team's commitments could total about $118MM not including minimum salary players.  The Angels' Opening Day payroll in 2011 was about $23MM above that point, so GM Tony Reagins should have flexibility this winter.   

Arbitration Eligibles: Oakland Athletics

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The Athletics are next in our arbitration eligibles series.

This entire group could reasonably be tendered contracts.  It's possible someone like Rosales, a potential Super Two, would be cut loose even though his projected salary is only $600K.  Powell, another likely Super Two, also failed to produce in the bigs but could be retained affordably.

Gonzalez should land the biggest salary at an estimated $3.6MM, as he'll be arbitration eligible as a Super Two.  Braden should stay around $3.3MM after missing most of the season.  Bailey could get $3.4MM for his first time through, while the A's can enjoy McCarthy cheaply for one more season at around $2.6MM.

Barton, Sweeney, and Breslow should fall in the $1.6-1.8MM range.  It was a lost season for Barton culminating in shoulder surgery, but it's still a reasonable price to retain him.  The A's also have Devine checking in around $900K.

In total we estimate $19.5MM for the Athletics' nine arbitration eligibles.  Assuming Michael Wuertz's option is exercised, the A's are looking at a commitment of maybe $44MM plus minimum salary players.  That'd put them $23MM short of this year's Opening Day payroll.

Matt Swartz contributed to this post.

Arbitration Eligibles: Kansas City Royals

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The Royals are next in our arbitration eligibles series.

I view Getz and Pena as non-tender candidates.  However, with projected salaries of a million bucks or less, they may be retained.  Maier is also in line for an affordable salary, at about $700K.

Paulino won't be going anywhere, as we have him down for about $1.6MM.  Hochevar leads the club in innings, and should jump up to the $4MM range.  Cabrera was a fine cheap free agent signing for GM Dayton Moore, who can retain the outfielder again for approximately $4MM.

We've got Gordon down for $4.3MM.  Extension talks are on the offseason agenda, so the Royals could get him at a reduced salary for 2012 as part of a long-term deal.

Arbitration Eligibles: Minnesota Twins

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The Twins are next in our arbitration eligibles series.

The Twins have a lot of non-tender candidates in this bunch: Mijares, Tolbert, Dumatrait, Slowey, and Repko.  MLBTR's Steve Adams points out that the success of Perkins and the likelihood of moving Brian Duensing to the bullpen could make lefties Mijares and Dumatrait expendable.  Tolbert and Repko are bench players who would cost under $1MM each, but neither has provided any offense.

Momentum for a Slowey trade has been building since at least Spring Training, though his limited 2011 contribution would probably keep his salary at $2.7MM.  With Kyle Gibson going down for Tommy John surgery the Twins might prefer the depth Slowey provides.  So while a non-tender is possible, it's more likely that the Twins trade or keep Slowey.

Perkins and Casilla will be retained, each projected in the $1.5MM range.  Liriano had an off year, plagued with shoulder issues.  He projects for a $5.7MM salary in 2012, and he's too tantalizing a talent to cut loose unless major surgery becomes necessary.

The Twins could end up with Perkins, Casilla, and Liriano on next year's roster for a total of around $8.6MM.  That'd put their total around $74.35MM before accounting for minimum salary players, so if the 2011 Opening Day payroll level is maintained the Twins could have over $30MM to spend in 2012 salaries.

Steve Adams and Matt Swartz contributed to this post.

Arbitration Eligibles: Cleveland Indians

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The Indians are next in our arbitration eligibles series.

Carmona would be arbitration eligible if the Indians decline his $7MM club option.  He hasn't been great in terms of the categories that earn pitchers big bucks in arbitration, but he's done enough for the option to represent about $1MM in savings.

The Indians' group doesn't appear to have any non-tender candidates.  Masterson projects to a healthy $4MM for his first time.  Choo had been on the fast track to big arbitration earnings, but this year's dismal counting stats may keep him under $5MM for 2012.  Perez's first 30+ save season should allow him to jump to $4.3MM.  Cabrera's power surge should push him to $4.9MM or so.  Hannahan, Smith, and Perez each project to fall in the $1.4-1.9MM salary range.

Assuming Carmona's option is exercised, these eight players should cost about $30MM in 2012.  If the Indians pick up Grady Sizemore's option as well, they'll be around $56MM.  That commitment is firmly in the middle of their last two Opening Day payrolls, though it doesn't account for minimum salary players.

Matt Swartz contributed to this post.

Arbitration Eligibles: Chicago White Sox

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The White Sox are next as we continue our series looking at each team's arbitration eligible players.

Pena is a non-tender candidate.  Though he could be retained with no raise on his current $1.6MM salary, he may need Tommy John surgery and might not be able to contribute much in 2012.

Quentin has solid production in the categories arbitration favors: home runs and RBIs.  That should lead to a salary in the $7.5MM range.

Danks is an interesting case for arbitration nerds.  He missed around four starts for an oblique strain this summer, at a point in his career where an inning is worth about $24K and a win around $80K in salary.  He's likely to come in under 180 innings and 10 wins.  There are few recent comparables for a five-plus service time starter like Danks, but Jeremy Guthrie and Matt Garza are current-year comparables whose fates will be intertwined.  A vintage Danks year might have resulted in a $10MM salary, but we see him closer to $8MM for 2012.

Retaining Quentin and Danks could put the White Sox around $105MM in commitments for 2012. That's well below this year's $128MM payroll, but with attendance down the team may pull back spending.

Matt Swartz contributed to this post.

Arbitration Eligibles: Detroit Tigers

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So far in our arbitration eligibles series we've covered all of the AL East: the Orioles, Red Sox, Yankees, Rays, and Blue Jays.  Now we take on the AL Central starting with the Tigers.

I can see the Tigers tendering contracts to all but Thomas.  Porcello and Kelly project to be arbitration eligible as Super Twos.  Starters Porcello and Scherzer should get nice first-time salaries in the $4MM range.  Porcello, especially, is helped by a pre-arbitration salary of $1.536MM owing to the Major League deal he signed out of high school.  Kelly might get around $700K, while Coke projects at $1.4MM.  Thomas has battled elbow issues for most of the year, and the Tigers tried to outright him but had to put him on the 60-day DL.  He's likely to be cut prior to the non-tender deadline.

Young's non-tender candidacy was a factor in his trade to the Tigers.  His power has bounced back in 89 plate appearances with Detroit, though he's yet to draw a walk.  If you look at Young's current 2011 counting stats – 7 home runs, 49 RBIs, 39 runs – they should lead to a relatively meager raise.  We're thinking a $725K bump to a $6.1MM salary, a gamble the Tigers might take if they like what they see for the rest of the year.

If the Tigers retain Jose Valverde for $9MM and tender contracts to all arbitration eligibles, they'd have just under $100MM in 2012 commitments.  With a 2011 Opening Day payroll of $107MM, the Tigers would have to trade someone or raise payroll to 2008-10 levels to be able to add a prominent free agent or two.

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