Diamondbacks Notes: Greinke, Leake, Trades
Even after agreeing to terms with free agent ace Zack Greinke on a gigantic, gutsy contract, the Diamondbacks aren’t through looking for pitching help. There is still mutual interest between the Diamondbacks and free agent starter Mike Leake, Diamondbacks beat writer Jack Magruder tweets. The Giants are also still contenders for Leake’s services, Magruder notes — even though they, too, have committed a big chunk of change to a top free agent starter in Jeff Samardzija. Here’s more from out of Arizona.
- While the Diamondbacks are interested in acquiring another pitcher, the amount of money they’ve committed to Greinke might mean they’re more likely to turn to the trade market, MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert writes. It’s very unlikely that they would trade A.J. Pollock, Gilbert writes, but they could deal from their collection of infielders.
- Diamondbacks baseball isn’t usually a burning topic in December, even in Phoenix, but the Greinke deal changes that, Dan Bickley of the Arizona Republic writes. It makes them a contender and it makes them relevant, and it also helps weaken their NL West foes in Los Angeles. It also reflects a change in approach for the Snakes, who lately have avoided the risk associated with expensive long-term deals.
Stark’s Latest: Cueto, Leake Miller, Indians, Rays
Here are the latest starting pitcher rumors in advance of the winter meetings, courtesy of ESPN’s Jayson Stark.
- Johnny Cueto is the top pitcher on the free agent market, but his earning potential remains unclear. Some insiders are surprised he turned down the six-year, $120MM offer previously extended by the Diamondbacks. As Stark points out, Cueto is sixth among active starters with a 3.30 ERA so he would seemingly justify a serious investment. However, concerns about his health and late-season struggles have executives worried. Per one source, “If you told me that, within 24 hours [of arriving at the meetings], all of the big free-agent starters would be signed except Cueto, I’d believe it.“
- Former Reds starter Mike Leake, 28, is in demand largely because he’s one of the youngest pitchers on the market. He has a history of durability, but that comes with league average production on the mound. However, Leake is also well-above average as a hitter, boosting his value to NL clubs. Stark expects a “stampede” in Leake’s direction during the Winter Meetings. One source believes Leake will be overpaid by an exuberant market.
- The Braves would jump on a Shelby Miller trade if they received the right controllable position player. To date, Atlanta has focused on particularly high value targets like Joc Pederson, A.J. Pollock, and Jorge Soler. As you might guess, few if any teams are eager to trade established, high quality young hitters for pitching. The Braves have shown no sign of backing down on their asking price.
- We’ve heard a lot about the Indians pitching depth – namely Corey Kluber, Danny Salazar, Carlos Carrasco, and Trevor Bauer. Stark and his sources think the club will stand pat this winter. “You’re just shifting around your problems,” said one contact in regard to a hypothetical pitcher-for-hitter swap. The team’s strength is built around their rotation. They may be best served by simply maximizing that advantage.
- With the exception of Chris Archer, the Rays are shopping all of their starting pitchers. That’s par for the course for the Rays who historically have been open to trading anybody to improve the long term outlook of the franchise. Stark specifically mentions Jake Odorizzi and Matt Moore as available, but we can probably presume that Erasmo Ramirez is being floated too.
- Stark offers plenty of more notes in his column including the latest on the Yankees, Padres, and the remaining buyers for pitching.
Braves Notes: Miller, Pollock, Flowers, Cox
Here’s the latest from the ATL…
- The Diamondbacks have “pushed on” Shelby Miller in talks with the Braves, ESPN’s Buster Olney reports (via Twitter). Atlanta, meanwhile, seems to be focused on outfielders, particularly A.J. Pollock. Olney wonders if this could lead to an expanded deal between the two clubs; for the record, the D’Backs has already turned down at least two offers from the Braves involving Pollock and Miller. It could be more likely that Arizona won’t deal Pollock at all, as team CEO Derrick Hall recently intimated, especially now that the D’Backs seem to be aiming to contend in 2016 after signing Zack Greinke. This could mean that other outfielders like Ender Inciarte or David Peralta could be floated by the Snakes as trade bait in order to land Miller, though this is just my speculation.
- The Braves have interest in catcher Tyler Flowers, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reports. The White Sox non-tendered Flowers earlier this week rather than pay him a $3.5MM salary (as projected by MLBTR) in the arbitration process. Flowers was originally drafted by Atlanta in the 33rd round of the 2005 draft before being traded to Chicago as part of the Javier Vazquez deal in December 2008. If the Braves did bring him into the fold, Flowers would not only be rejoining his original club but also his old White Sox battery mate in A.J. Pieryzynski. Atlanta has been rumored to be looking for more catching options due to dissatisfaction with Christian Bethancourt‘s development.
- The Braves announced on Thursday that Bobby Cox has signed a two-year extension to continue acting as a consultant for the team (hat tip to Buster Olney). Cox signed a five-year consulting contract after retiring as the Braves’ manager following the 2010 season, and this new deal will keep him in the fold through the 2017 campaign.
More Reaction And Analysis Of The Zack Greinke Signing
We’ve already published some early reactions last night to Zack Greinke‘s six-year, $206.5MM contract with the Diamondbacks, yet the baseball world has plenty more to say about the industry-shocking deal. Here’s some more opinions and news…
- It will take more than just Greinke to make the D’Backs the NL West favorites in 2016, MLB.com’s Mike Petriello writes. That said, the team was on track to improve even without Greinke, and his addition obviously greatly upgrades the rotation, which was Arizona’s greatest need.
- The Dodgers made a curious choice in not spending more to land Greinke, FOX Sports’ Jon Paul Morosi opines. While Arizona surpassed all industry expectations for Greinke’s contract, the Dodgers have the financial might to never be outbid on any player they truly want, and the fact that they were willing to offer Greinke a five-year, $155MM deal indicates that there was legitimately interest on Los Angeles’ part. With Greinke gone, the Dodgers now have to spend either money or prospects to acquire another ace.
- Had the Dodgers been willing to part with some top prospects, they could’ve landed Cole Hamels from the Phillies last season and already had another long-term ace on hand to cushion the blow if Greinke left, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal notes. While the Dodgers, like any team, are loath to move their best minor leaguers, Rosenthal argues that L.A. is in unique position to instantly reload the farm system given how much they’ve spent to dominate the international talent market.
- The Dodgers’ offer already put them beyond their comfort zone, and the team believed they were on the verge of welcoming Greinke back, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times writes. The Dodgers thought “the issue was more about how to structure a deal and less about whether there would be one.” For Dodger fans, this is the clearest sign yet that the team wants to get a younger roster, as it is “terrified” of being hamstrung by too many unreliable veterans on huge contracts, a la the Yankees and Phillies of recent years.
- Despite this fear, the Dodgers don’t really have all that many long-term salary commitments, as ESPN’s Buster Olney points out in his latest subscriber-only column. Carl Crawford, Andre Ethier, Brett Anderson and Alex Guerrero all come off the books after 2017 while Adrian Gonzalez, Yasiel Puig, Hyun-jin Ryu and Brandon McCarthy are all free agents after 2018. Like Morosi and Shaikin, Olney points out that the Dodgers now face extra pressure from their fans as, after years of exorbitant spending, a star player has now left for financial reasons.
- From the Diamondbacks’ perspective, Olney reports that some around the industry feel the club could eventually have to cut costs due to the signing, as the Snakes did for spending so freely in the years leading up to their 2001 World Series title. Still, Arizona’s payroll is greatly helped by the fact that Paul Goldschmidt‘s contract has become a huge bargain.
- Other teams aren’t pleased with the signing, ESPN’s Jayson Stark tweets, noting that the D’Backs have received almost $80MM in revenue sharing payments over the last three years. (As other writers have responded in other tweets, however, it seems like teams would be just as upset if the D’Backs pocketed the money instead of spending it on players.)
- With the Greinke market escalating to such incredible heights, Bruce Jenkins of the San Francisco Chronicle argues that the Giants were fortunate to get out of the hunt rather than commit so much money to a 32-year-old pitcher. Jenkins feels the Giants could pivot to signing both Mike Leake and Jeff Samardzija, just to increase the heat on the Dodgers. One of those steps has already been taken, as the Giants agreed to a five-year deal with Samardzija today.
Reactions To And Effects Of The Zack Greinke Deal
Here’s a quick roundup of links on the Diamondbacks’ very surprising, and extremely expensive, $206.5MM pact with Zack Greinke.
- Diamondbacks executives Tony La Russa and Dave Stewart met with free agent starting pitcher Mike Leake on Thursday, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal tweets. The Snakes remain interested in signing Leake even after agreeing to terms with Greinke, suggesting that they’ll continue to be active on the market for starting pitching despite the huge splash they’ve already made.
- Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija stand to benefit from Greinke’s signing with Arizona, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets. The signing leaves the market thinner, and the Dodgers, Giants and Cardinals are all still looking for starting pitching.
- Greinke’s hefty deal was an appropriate one for a player who ESPN’s Keith Law (Insider-only) sees as the best free agent starter available this offseason. Greinke’s offspeed stuff, brilliant command and feel for pitch sequencing make him a solid bet to continue to be successful even if his velocity declines, making him as close to Greg Maddux as there exists in today’s game. Law does agree with the Diamondbacks’ apparent self-assessment that they still need another starter, however, and argues that they’re still a few pieces short of being real contenders.
- Greinke’s huge new contract is a risky but bold move for the Diamondbacks, who have suddenly made themselves relevant in the NL West, Yahoo! Sports’ Tim Brown writes. The deal gives the Diamondbacks a bona fide ace to add to their collection of younger talent. It does, however, make their success in the future fairly heavily dependent upon the success of the contract, given that Greinke’s astronomical annual salaries will take up what will likely be huge chunks of the Diamondbacks’ relatively modest payrolls.
Diamondbacks In Pursuit Of Zack Greinke
The Diamondbacks are pursuing Zack Greinke, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets. Two other NL West teams, the Giants and Dodgers, had been widely reported to be the top two contenders for Greinke, but it appears another team has entered the fray.
This offseason, the Diamondbacks have shown interest in a variety of starters, including Johnny Cueto, Kenta Maeda, Mike Leake and Shelby Miller, but it’s a bit surprising to hear that they’re a possible contender for an up-market option like Greinke. Obviously, Greinke won’t be cheap — MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently predicted he’d get a six-year, $189MM deal. That total would be almost three times more expensive the Diamondbacks’ largest-ever contract (Yasmany Tomas‘ $68.5MM deal, signed last November), and the team has recently expressed skepticism about long contracts for pitchers. They did, however, reportedly offer Cueto a six-year deal worth $120MM. Also, the Los Angeles News Group’s J.P. Hoornstra tweets that the team does have the money to sign Greinke.
Diamondbacks CEO Hall On Pollock, Cueto
Diamondbacks CEO Derrick Hall met with the media in Arizona tonight, and among the topics addressed was the status of center fielder A.J. Pollock, whose name has frequented the rumor mill in recent weeks, most prominently in connection to Braves right-hander Shelby Miller. As Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes, however, Hall more or less shot down any plausibility of Pollock being dealt to another team in a trade.
“It’s clear that every team knows that [Paul Goldschmidt] is off limits,” Hall told reporters. “It’s almost time to send a message that A.J. is off limits. … It’s no surprise that he’s the first name that comes up, really in every conversation we have. It’s like Goldy two or three years ago. He came up in every conversation. I think it’s safe to categorize him as almost untouchable.”
Not only are the Diamondbacks strongly opposed to discussing Pollock’s name in trades, according to Hall, they’ve also had discussions about trying to work out a long-term contract with the standout center fielder. Talks to this point have been internal, Hall said, but he added that it makes sense for the D-backs to consider an extension given “who he is, what he means to this team, where he is right now service time-wise.”
Pollock’s service time could make an extension difficult to reach, as the D-backs don’t have the same leverage they’d have with a younger player that was still years from arbitration. Pollock has accrued more than three years of Major League service, thus making him arbitration-eligible for the first time this offseason. With a projected payday of $4.3MM (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz), Pollock has achieved a small amount of financial security (well, “small” relative to his veteran peers) and probably doesn’t feel as much pressure to take a long-term deal as he would if he had to get through another pre-arb season or two before earning much more than the league minimum.
Also factoring into the discussion is Pollock’s age; with his 28th birthday around the corner (Dec. 5), Pollock currently projects to hit free agency entering his age-31 season. If he continues his current trajectory — Pollock has batted .311/.363/.498 with 27 homers, 53 steals and elite defense in 232 games since 2014 — he could be in line for an enormous six-year contract. On the flip-side, if he takes a long-term deal that affords immediate financial security but also delays his free agency by a year or two (something Arizona would surely want to achieve in a theoretical extension), Pollock would be hitting the open market at 32 or 33. While that’s not to say that he couldn’t still be paid handsomely, teams would be more reluctant to commit to a longer term at an advanced age — especially for a player who derives much of his value from plus center field glovework.
It’s possible, perhaps, that the two sides could merely work out a three-year deal to lock in Pollock’s arbitration salaries, giving him advanced financial security and giving the D-backs a slight bit of savings and cost certainty over their payroll through the 2018 season.
Cost certainty may not sound like a sizable advantage, but it’s beneficial for clubs as they look to map out their next several years and can make it easier to spend on more expensive free-agent options. Hall’s comments on right-hander Johnny Cueto are a testament to that. Cueto reportedly rejected a six-year, $120MM offer from the D-backs, and Hall said on Thursday that it’s “difficult for a team like ours to even go six years,” adding that even five-year commitments are a challenge for the D-backs, who have traditionally operated with a mid-range payroll. (Although, the Diamondbacks did ink a new $1 billion TV contract earlier this year.) While the D-backs reportedly aren’t out of the mix on Cueto entirely, Piecoro notes that Hall did hint at the fact that the team might be moving on to other options.
“It’s debatable,” said Hall. “Look, we’ll see. We’ll cross that bridge. There’s Plan B and Plan C, and if we move on, we probably couldn’t revisit it if we move on to those other moves.”
While Hall, naturally, left “Plan B” and “Plan C” to the imagination, it’s probably safe to assume that one fallback plan for Cueto is Japanese right-hander Kenta Maeda, who we now know will be posted for MLB clubs this offseason. GM Dave Stewart publicly voiced his interest in Maeda last offseason and said this winter that the team has continued to monitor him. Arizona has also been connected to right-hander Mike Leake, an Arizona State grad, on multiple occasions. Given the payroll parameters within which the D-backs typically operate, it stands to reason that signing Maeda, Leake or a similarly priced free agent would indeed, as Hall alluded to, prevent them from further bolstering their rotation with an increased offer to Cueto.
Braves Listening On Shelby Miller; Interested In A.J. Pollock, Jorge Soler
6:56pm: The Braves continue to ask the Diamondbacks for A.J. Pollock, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (links to Twitter). After the D-backs initially rejected Atlanta’s proposal of Miller for Pollock, the Braves came back with an offer of Miller and right-hander Arodys Vizcaino for Pollock and minor league right-hander Aaron Blair, which Arizona also rejected.
Clearly, while the Braves are in a state of rebuilding, there’s interest on their behalf in adding a piece that can help them in 2017, when much of the team’s young stable of pitching prospects will be emerging onto the Major League scene. Both Pollock and Soler (mentioned in the previous update) fit that bill, with Soler possessing even more club control than Pollock, who is a free agent after three seasons (the same as Miller).
6:40pm: Shelby Miller‘s name is one of the most popular on the rumor circuit at present, with recent reports indicating that as many as 20 teams have checked in on the Atlanta right-hander. Jon Heyman reported yesterday that the Yankees, Marlins, Giants, Dodgers and Diamondbacks are all among the teams to have expressed interest, and further details on the Miller market are beginning to emerge.
Today, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports that the Braves are highly interested in Cubs right fielder Jorge Soler, but right-hander Julio Teheran probably isn’t enough to pry Soler away from Chicago (links to Twitter). One person familiar with Atlanta’s thinking also told Crasnick that the Red Sox could be a match, though that tweet preceded tonight’s record-setting agreement with David Price.
Meanwhile, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the Cubs, Diamondbacks, Dodgers and Giants are the teams that appear to be the most interested in Miller, but the Braves might be waiting until Price’s deal becomes official and Zack Greinke makes a decision before ultimately determining whether or not they should move Miller. Greinke is said to be choosing between San Francisco and L.A., so it stands to reason that whichever club loses out on Greinke could show an increased willingness to part with talent to land Miller.
Heyman hears that one name that’s unlikely to be included in a Miller deal is Joc Pederson (Twitter link), The Dodgers have “made clear” that they’d prefer to deal from their deep well of prospects as opposed to part with Major League ready talent such as Pederson, whose name isn’t involved in trade discussions between the two sides at this time.
The 25-year-old Miller is set to hit arbitration for the first time this winter and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $4.9MM next season. He’s controllable for three more years and is coming off a fine 2015 campaign in which he recorded a 3.02 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a 47.7 ground-ball rate in 205 2/3 innings. The ERA, ground-ball rate and innings total each ranked as a career-high for the former first-round pick.
Latest On Johnny Cueto’s Asking Price
10:46pm: Arizona’s interest in Cueto was and perhaps still is rather intense, according to reports. The organization sent a delegation including GM Dave Stewart, chief baseball officer Tony La Russa, and president Derrick Hall to the Dominican Republic to meet with the righty, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports on Twitter. And the D’backs still have interest after the initial offer was rebuffed, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter), who adds that the club “realize[s]” that Cueto can command more than a $20MM AAV over six years after Jordan Zimmermann got $22MM annually for five.
Of course, the Diamondbacks aren’t alone in pursuing the veteran. Among the other teams to reach out to his representatives are the Dodgers, Giants, Red Sox, and Cubs, per Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. That group of large-market contenders has always figured to factor at the top of the free agent pitching pool.
11:52am: Johnny Cueto reportedly rejected a six-year, $120MM contract offer from the D-Backs recently, and ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick now reports that teams in the market for Cueto believe he’s seeking $140-160MM in total — a contract that would vault him into Jon Lester territory (Twitter link). According to Crasnick, the Diamondbacks initially planned to offer Cueto about $110MM but upped their offer to $120MM late in talks (Twitter link). The increase, however, wasn’t enough to get the job done.
It would seem, then, that Cueto’s camp is seeking a contract that doesn’t offer any sort of reduced rate due to the minor elbow issues that plagued Cueto this summer or due to his late-season struggles. Cueto was masterful in his first four outings with the Royals, pitching to a 1.80 ERA in 30 innings, including a complete-game shutout of the Tigers. However, he limped to a 6.49 ERA over his final nine starts (51 1/3 innings). There were a few quality starts mixed in toward the end, but many speculated as to whether Cueto was fully healthy. Cueto and Salvador Perez reportedly worked to adjust where Perez would set the target for Cueto’s pitches, but he still had mixed results from that point forth.
Cueto’s postseason was a true mixed bag — one so-so start, one meltdown and a pair of dominant gems in pivotal games. His final outing — a one-run complete game over the Mets in Game 2 of the World Series — was a nice final impression to make as he headed into free agency. Nevertheless, Cueto’s overall body of work following his mild elbow flare-up and trade to the Royals saw him yield 58 earned runs in 106 1/3 innings (4.91 ERA) with a 75-to-27 K/BB ratio and 118 hits (13 homers) allowed.
None of that is to say that Cueto can’t or shouldn’t secure a hefty payday, of course. Despite those issues, the perception of Cueto has remained that he’s one of the three or four best starters on the market (depending on one’s feelings about Jordan Zimmremann), and we at MLBTR still projected him to clear $100MM with relative ease (though the $120MM he rejected already surpassed our most recent $115MM figure). Prior to those issues, a Lester-esque contract was a perfectly reasonable expectation for Cueto, and the possibility that he exceeded that figure was certainly present. Cueto, after all, logged a 2.48 ERA in 677 1/3 innings from 2011-14 despite pitching his home games in one of baseball’s most hitter-friendly parks, and he carried a similarly elite 2.62 ERA and a 120-to-29 K/BB ratio through 130 2/3 innings with the Reds this season.
Cueto is a clear front-line starter when healthy and at his best, and he’s entering the open market heading into his age-30 season, having not yet even celebrated his 30th birthday as of this writing. That he’s already received a $120MM offer suggests that the demand for his services is strong, which certainly plays into his camp’s favor as the Winter Meetings approach.
Shelby Miller Drawing Significant Trade Interest
Braves right-hander Shelby Miller is one of the hottest names on the trade market, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, with as many as 20 teams having checked in on the young right-hander. There’s no indication that anything is close at this time, Heyman notes, and the Braves are said to be asking a huge haul in return for Miller, who has three years of affordable club control remaining.
The Dodgers, Yankees, Marlins, Diamondbacks and Giants have all shown interest in Miller to this point. According to Heyman, the Braves asked the Yankees for right-hander Luis Severino in exchange for Miller, and the Marlins were asked to part with outfielder Marcell Ozuna and other pieces in order to pry Miller away from Atlanta. Those steep asking prices line up with previous reports pertaining to the Braves’ talks with the Diamondbacks, when they reportedly asked that Arizona part with star center fielder A.J. Pollock. (Those talks didn’t gain traction.)
Miller, acquired alongside minor league righty Tyrell Jenkins in exchange for Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden, is coming off a strong debut season with the Braves. The former first-rounder logged a 3.02 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a career-best 47.7 percent ground-ball rate in 205 1/3 innings (the innings total was also a career high). Miller won only six games due to Atlanta’s bullpen struggles and a lack of run support, but that actually enhances is value in a way. Teams won’t be deterred by a poor win-loss record when evaluating Miller, but the lack of wins will suppress his arbitration earnings, as the arb process still factors in pitcher wins/losses rather heavily. Miller’s strong body of work as a whole to this point in his career still makes for a $4.9MM projection from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, but the number assuredly would’ve been greater had his record aligned more accordingly with his ERA.
One factor that clubs may consider, though, is that Miller’s overall numbers are propped up by what was an unsustainable run of sub-2.00 ERA production through the season’s first two months. From June 1 through season’s end, Miller posted a quality (but less impressive) 3.77 ERA with 8.0 K/9 against 3.6 BB/9 across 138 1/3 innings. Miller’s strikeout rates and control numbers have fluctuated somewhat throughout his career, but low BABIP totals and seemingly good fortune in terms of homer-to-flyball rate have led to a large discrepancy between his 3.22 ERA and metrics such as xFIP (4.08) and SIERA (4.10). Miller’s BABIP has always been below the league average, though, as has his HR/FB, suggesting that some of the perceived fortune could be more skill-based in his case.
Ultimately, the value placed upon him in a potential trade (if he is moved at all) will be dependent on whether the club places more emphasis on his ERA or on his secondary stats. Even if Miller is more of a mid- or upper-3.00 ERA type of pitcher, three seasons of control over him would still come with significant value, so it’s logical to see Atlanta placing a sizable asking price on Miller when listening to offers from interested parties.