The Opener: Astros, Options, Diamondbacks
Welcome to The Opener, our new weekday morning series here at MLBTR! Nick Deeds will take you through three things to watch around MLB, with our typical hot stove leaning.
With the final game of the 2022 MLB season coming as soon as tomorrow night, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world:
1. Astros Facing Decisions On Baker, Click
After a hard-fought Game 5 that afforded Justin Verlander his first pitcher win in the World Series, the Astros will look to clinch back home in Houston tomorrow night. As soon as they do, however, they’ll have to face the personnel decisions that their postseason run has put on hold to this point. Both manager Dusty Baker and GM James Click are on expiring contracts, and Astros owner Jim Crane will have to decide their futures with the franchise. The Astros are expected to ask Baker to return in 2023, and Baker has indicated that he would like to continue managing regardless of the outcome of this postseason run. The future is murkier for Click, however, as speculation has run rampant throughout the postseason that he may not be asked to return to Houston in 2023, with Jon Heyman of the New York Post mentioning the uncertainty surrounding Click’s future as recently as last night. While it’s surprising to see so much uncertainty around a GM who has captured back-to-back AL pennants and might add a World Series championship to his resume as soon as tomorrow night, reports of a personality clash between Crane and Click abound. Heyman suggests that the Astros may be interested in David Stearns, who served as their assistant GM prior to running Milwaukee’s front office. While Stearns has stepped down as president of baseball operations for the Brewers, he’s not likely to run the Astros or any other team during the 2023 season, for which he is still under contract in Milwaukee. Even if the Astros are indeed interested in Stearns as their long-term head of baseball operations, the question of who will be at the helm in Houston next season remains unanswered.
2. Option Decisions Loom
A number of players and teams are facing option decisions, and with the World Series set to end this weekend, those decisions will have to be made sometime next week. While some decisions, such as that of Nolan Arenado, have already been made, most are still up in the air. Anthony Rizzo, Jurickson Profar, and Jake Odorizzi are among the players with tougher decisions facing them on whether or not to test free agency. As for club options, the Dodgers have one of the tougher calls on Justin Turner‘s $16MM option, as do the Brewers on Kolten Wong‘s $10MM option. Additionally, many of the biggest names on the free agent market this season, such as Verlander, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Correa, and Xander Bogaerts, are technically not set to be free agents until they opt-out of their current contracts, though for decisions as clear as these this is little more than a formality.
3. Arizona Faces Outfield Logjam
Despite finishing the regular season with an unimpressive 74-88 record, the Diamondbacks are by no means a team without talent. Unfortunately for Arizona, however, a great deal of that talent overlaps heavily, as the team is flush with young, controllable, lefty-hitting outfielders. Corbin Carroll and Alek Thomas highlight the bunch in terms of prospect pedigree, but Jake McCarthy had a breakout season in 2022, Daulton Varsho turned in a quality season as an everyday player spending most of his time in the outfield, Pavin Smith won’t be eligible for arbitration until after next season, and Dominic Fletcher is knocking on the door in Triple-A. Between the DH and some positional versatility — Varsho caught 175 innings in 2022, while Smith played a bit of first base — Arizona could find at-bats for most, or perhaps even all, of these players. A better solution for the Diamondbacks, though, would be to explore trades for one or two of these young players in order to shore up their pitching staff or address other holes in the lineup. Carroll and Varsho would likely be off-limits, but perhaps a team looking to get more left-handed bats into the lineup, such as either Chicago team or the Marlins, could be interested in acquiring McCarthy, Smith, or Fletcher. While it’s not inconceivable Thomas could be moved, after a rough start to his major league career in 2022, Arizona would likely be selling low on him in any deal.
A’s Claim Yonny Hernandez From Diamondbacks
The Athletics announced that they have claimed infielder Yonny Hernandez off waivers from the Diamondbacks. Additionally, the club has outrighted infielder Nate Mondou, left-hander Sam Selman and righties Austin Pruitt, Norge Ruiz, and Collin Wiles. The Diamondbacks also announced the claim of Hernandez, while relaying that infielder Jake Hager and right-hander Keynan Middleton cleared waivers and elected free agency.
This is one of the times on the baseball calendar when roster turnover is high, for a couple of reasons. First, there is no injured list between the World Series and Spring Training, meaning that players on the 60-day IL will soon be retaking their spots. Secondly, the deadline to add prospects to the 40-man roster in order to protect them from being selected in the Rule 5 draft is November 15. Those two factors both combine to squeeze certain players off rosters and onto waivers.
Hernandez, 25 in May, had spent all of his career in the Rangers organization until being traded to the D-Backs in April. He got into 12 MLB games this year, spending much more time in the minors. He hit .241/.349/.324 in 71 Triple-A games this year, wRC+ of 78. That’s not an especially impressive showing, but Hernandez fared much better in previous seasons and has always had good plate discipline. Despite the rough year, he still walked in 11.7% of his plate appearances and struck out in just 15.8% of them, with both of those numbers being much better than average. He’s never hit for much power though, having only hit five home runs in a minor league career that dates back to 2015. He still has options, meaning the A’s can keep him in the minors next year and try to see if they can draw something extra out of him.
Mondou, 28 in March, was just selected to the roster in October. He made his MLB debut by getting into one game where he made three hitless plate appearances, walking once and striking out once. In 108 Triple-A games, he hit .283/.374/.431 for a wRC+ of 105. Given his seven years of minor league experience, he will be eligible to elect free agency five days after the World Series.
Selman, 32 this month, has thrown 73 MLB innings over the past four seasons. He has a 4.81 ERA in that time with a 22.5% strikeout rate, 10.3% walk rate and 29.6% ground ball rate. He cut his walk rate to 6.7% in 2022 but also gave up four home runs in just 18 1/3 innings, leading to a 4.91 ERA. He’s eligible to elect free agency by virtue of having been previously outrighted in his career.
Pruitt, 33, signed a minor league deal with the A’s for 2022 and was twice selected to the roster with one DFA in between. He got into 55 1/3 innings on the season and registered a 4.23 ERA. His 17% strikeout rate was below average but he limited walks to a 4% rate and also got grounders on 45.5% of balls in play. He’s eligible to elect free agency both on account of his previous outrights and more than three years of service time.
Ruiz, 29 in March, was once a high-profile signing out of Cuba but saw his stock fade in recent years. A switch from starting to relieving in 2019 seemed to give him a boost, leading to him getting to make his MLB debut in 2022. He tossed 19 innings with a 7.11 ERA, though a .413 batting average on balls in play could indicate there’s some bad luck in there. He had a much nicer 3.73 ERA in 41 Triple-A innings. He should stick with the A’s as depth but without taking up a roster spot.
Wiles, 29 in May, got the call to the big leagues for the first time in September. He was able to log 9 2/3 MLB innings while putting up a 4.66 ERA in that small sample. He worked as a starter in the minors, logging 143 1/3 Triple-A innings with a 5.40 ERA. He limited walks to a 4.3% rate but was undone by 27 long balls in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.
Hager, 30 in March, appeared in 28 big league games for Arizona this year, hitting .240/.345/.280 in that time for a wRC+ of 84. He had fairly similar results in 72 Triple-A games, adding a bit more pop but walking less. He’s eligible to elect free agency based on the fact that he’s been previously outrighted in his career.
Middleton, 29, has appeared in each of the past six seasons, spending time with the Angels and Mariners before suiting up with the Diamondbacks in 2022. He tossed 17 innings in the majors and another 17 in Triple-A this year, with better results in the minors. He had a 5.29 ERA in the bigs along with a 2.12 ERA for Reno. He is eligible to elect free agency both because of he has more than three years of MLB service time and a previous career outright.
MLB Announces 2022 Gold Glove Winners
Major League Baseball announced the 2022 Gold Glove award winners this evening. This season was the first in which the league added a “utility” award to honor multi-positional players, in addition to the standard nine positions in each league. There are 20 winners overall, 14 of whom received a Gold Glove for the first time. Only two players who won last year claimed the award yet again.
Five teams had multiple winners, with the AL Central-winning Guardians leading the pack with four honorees. Cleveland ranked fourth in the majors (third in the American League) in turning balls in play into outs, with opponents managing a .274 batting average on balls in play against them. That excellent defensive group was an underrated part of the quality run prevention unit that helped Cleveland to a surprising playoff berth.
Here are the full list of winners:
American League
Pitcher: Shane Bieber (Guardians), 1st career selection
Other finalists: José Berríos (Blue Jays), Jameson Taillon (Yankees)
Catcher: Jose Trevino (Yankees), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Sean Murphy (Athletics), Cal Raleigh (Mariners)
First Base: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Luis Arraez (Twins), Anthony Rizzo (Yankees)
Second Base: Andrés Giménez (Guardians), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Jonathan Schoop (Tigers), Marcus Semien (Rangers)
Third Base: Ramón Urías (Orioles), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Matt Chapman (Blue Jays), José Ramírez (Guardians)
Shortstop: Jeremy Peña (Astros), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox), Carlos Correa (Twins)
Left Field: Steven Kwan (Guardians), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Andrew Benintendi (Royals/Yankees), Brandon Marsh (Angels/Phillies)
Center Field: Myles Straw (Guardians), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Cedric Mullins (Orioles), Michael A. Taylor (Royals)
Right Field: Kyle Tucker (Astros), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Jackie Bradley Jr. (Red Sox/Blue Jays), Max Kepler (Twins)
Utility: DJ LeMahieu (Yankees), 4th career selection
Other finalists: Whit Merrifield (Royals/Blue Jays), Luis Rengifo (Angels)
National League
Pitcher: Max Fried (Braves), 3rd career selection/3rd consecutive win
Other finalists: Tyler Anderson (Dodgers), Corbin Burnes (Brewers)
Catcher: J.T. Realmuto (Phillies), 2nd career selection
Other finalists: Travis d’Arnaud (Braves), Tomás Nido (Mets)
First Base: Christian Walker (Diamondbacks), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Paul Goldschmidt (Cardinals), Matt Olson (Braves)
Second Base: Brendan Rodgers (Rockies), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Jake Cronenworth (Padres), Tommy Edman (Cardinals)
Third Base: Nolan Arenado (Cardinals), 10th career selection/10th consecutive win
Other finalists: Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates), Ryan McMahon (Rockies)
Shortstop: Dansby Swanson (Braves), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Ha-Seong Kim (Padres), Miguel Rojas (Marlins)
Left Field: Ian Happ (Cubs), 1st career selection
Other finalists: David Peralta (Diamondbacks/Rays), Christian Yelich (Brewers)
Center Field: Trent Grisham (Padres), 2nd career selection
Other finalists: Víctor Robles (Nationals), Alek Thomas (Diamondbacks)
Right Field: Mookie Betts (Dodgers), 6th career selection
Other finalists: Juan Soto (Nationals/Padres), Daulton Varsho (Diamondbacks)
Utility: Brendan Donovan (Cardinals), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Tommy Edman (Cardinals), Daulton Varsho (Diamondbacks)
NL West Notes: Nimmo, Rockies, Padres, Lawlar
Brandon Nimmo is “on the Rockies’ preliminary wish list” heading into the offseason, according to Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post. Given how the Rockies somewhat unexpectedly splurged on Kris Bryant last winter, they shouldn’t be ruled out of making another splashy move, though it will indeed take a big commitment to win a bidding war for Nimmo’s services. As observed by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco in his recent Rockies-focused Offseason Outlook entry, Colorado is already close to its club-record payroll high, so the Rox may have to go well beyond their usual financial comfort zone to add Nimmo or any other notable free agent (unless they created some payroll space with trades and non-tenders). The Rockies might at least have a geographical advantage if Nimmo wants to play closer to home, as Denver is less than two hours away from Nimmo’s hometown of Cheyenne, Wyoming.
Signing Nimmo would immediately solidify the center field position for the Rockies, bring some left-handed balance to a mostly right-handed lineup, and give the club some more offensive pop. While Nimmo has had trouble staying off the injured list during his career, he has always been productive when healthy, and answered some questions about his durability by playing in 151 games with the Mets in 2022. Nimmo hit .274/.367/.433 over 673 plate appearances, with 16 homers and a league-best seven triples — his 134 wRC+ was higher than any Rockies player with at least 100 PA last season.
More from around the NL West…
- The Padres surpassed the luxury tax threshold in each of the last two seasons, though it doesn’t seem like the team is planning to curb its spending any time soon. “We’re good, and we have to protect that and enhance it,” club chairman Peter Seidler told reporters (including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune). Naturally, neither Seidler or president of baseball operations A.J. Preller gave any concrete numbers about offseason spending plans, and Preller noted that the Padres have had the financial flexibility “for the things are going to come up through the season. Sometimes that calls for players and free agency trades, players of different caliber and different dollar amounts.” As Acee notes, San Diego already has around $187MM projected for next season’s payroll, and plenty of holes to fill on a roster that might lose some key players to free agency.
- Diamondbacks star prospect Jordan Lawlar will need 6-8 weeks of recovery time after suffering a fractured left scapula last week during Arizona Fall League play. A wayward pitch from Orioles prospect Nick Richmond “just hit [Lawlar] in the wrong spot,” D’Backs farm director Josh Barfield told Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. However, Barfield said the injury won’t require surgery or be too much of a setback for Lawlar’s offseason prep, even though it will end Lawlar’s excellent AFL showing. The sixth overall pick of the 2021 draft, Lawlar just turned 20 years old back in July but has already made his Double-A debut. Assuming good health and continued progress, it might not be out of the question that Lawlar makes his Major League debut late in the 2023 season, though the Diamondbacks don’t want to rush things with a player who has only 102 total minor league games on his resume.
Offseason Chat Transcript: Arizona Diamondbacks
MLBTR is holding live chats specific to each of the 30 teams as the offseason nears. In conjunction with the recent offseason outlook for the D-Backs, Anthony Franco held a Diamondbacks-specific live chat. Click here to view the transcript.
Diamondbacks Claim Tyler Zuber From Royals
The Royals announced that right-hander Tyler Zuber has been claimed off waivers by the Diamondbacks. Zuber has been on the 60-day injured list all season and won’t require a 40-man roster spot for the time being. Additionally, the Royals also announced that right-hander Ryan Weiss has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A Omaha.
Zuber, 28 in June, missed the entirety of the 2022 due to a shoulder impingement, though he was recently able to resume throwing. He appeared in the majors in 2020 and 2021, though without much success. In 49 1/3 career innings, he has a 5.29 ERA, with a strong 24.8% strikeout rate but a ghastly 16.7% walk rate.
He still has one option year remaining and has yet to reach arbitration eligibility, but the Royals are evidently doing some roster cleanup at the moment. Most teams have roster crunches upcoming since there’s no injured list between the World Series and Spring Training. That means players on the 60-day IL, who don’t count against a club’s 40-man count, will soon be returning to their respective rosters. In anticipation of that, the Royals have cut Zuber, Weiss and Luke Weaver from their roster, with Weaver having been lost to the Mariners on a separate waiver claim.
For the D-Backs, they don’t need a roster spot for Zuber just yet but will soon. They are likely looking past his major league results and focusing on his work in the minors thus far. Last year, Zuber threw 28 2/3 Triple-A innings with a 2.83 ERA while striking out 37.1% of batters faced. The control problems were still there, however, as Zuber walked 13.8% of those who stepped to the plate. If he can hang onto his 40-man roster spot through the winter, he could serve as optionable depth for Arizona in 2023 while they try to iron out that command.
As for Weiss, 26 in December, he’s yet to make his MLB debut. He was drafted by the Diamondbacks and was added to their 40-man roster in November of last year, eventually going to the Royals on a midseason waiver claim. Between the two organizations, he registered a 6.93 ERA over 62 1/3 innings in 2022. This is his first career outright and he doesn’t have the three years of MLB service time or seven years of minor league experience necessary to have the right to reject it. He’ll stick with the Royals as depth but without occupying a 40-man roster spot.
D-backs’ Caleb Smith Diagnosed With Ligament Tear In Elbow
Diamondbacks lefty Caleb Smith has been a diagnosed with a ligament tear in his left elbow, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports. However, after receiving multiple opinions on the injury, he’ll first opt for a rest-and-rehab approach rather than immediately undergoing Tommy John surgery, GM Mike Hazen tells Piecoro. The team has not provided a timetable for Smith’s potential recovery.
As with any tear, the possibility of eventual surgery will linger as Smith works through the rehab process. However, given the timing of the injury — Smith pitched in the D-backs’ final game of the season but departed with a trainer — he’d have been in line to miss the entire 2023 campaign even if he’d undergone surgery right away. If the tear is minimal enough that doctors feel he has a chance for it to heal without surgery, there’s little reason for him not to try the rehab route before going under the knife. That at least leaves the door open for him to pitch in 2023, and if he has surgery in a couple months’ time anyhow, he’d still be on track for an early 2024 return.
Regardless of whether he eventually requires surgery or is successful in rehabbing the tear, it’s quite possible that the ligament issue will bring an end to Smith’s tenure with the Diamondbacks organization. The 31-year-old southpaw is eligible for arbitration for the third and final time this winter, and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to receive a raise from $2MM to $2.7MM. With the specter of major surgery looming in a worst-case scenario and a presumably months-long rehab process on the docket even in a best-case scenario, Smith becomes an even clearer non-tender candidate than he already was.
Smith has had an up-and-down tenure in Arizona, splitting time between the bullpen and rotation with a few promising stretches but a general lack of consistency. He looked like a viable trade candidate for the D-backs early in the summer of 2021, pitching to a 3.08 ERA with a 26.9% strikeout rate (albeit against a bloated 11.6% walk rate) in 64 1/3 innings. Smith, however, was blown up for an ERA north of 12.00 over his next six starts, causing him to lose the rotation spot he’d seized at the beginning of June.
A solid finish out of the bullpen in 2021 (2.70 ERA in 26 2/3 innings) kept Smith in the team’s plans and set the stage for him to occupy a bullpen role full-time in 2022. He gave the Snakes 70 innings of 4.11 ERA ball this past season but did so with the worst full-season strikeout and walk rates of his career (21.5% and 12.9%). Since his Aug. 2021 shift to the bullpen, Smith has a solid 3.72 ERA but lackluster marks in strikeout rate (21.5%), walk rate (12%), ground-ball rate (30.6%), homers per nine innings (1.68), FIP (5.28) and SIERA (4.60).
A Breakout Reliever In The Desert: Joe Mantiply
Amidst a rebuild, the Arizona Diamondbacks are finally seeing the fruits of their labor. Led by promising starters Zac Gallen, 2.54 ERA in 184 innings, and Merrill Kelly, 3.37 ERA in 200 1/3 innings, and backed offensively by a quartet of promising young outfield talent, Alek Thomas, Daulton Varsho, Jake McCarthy, and Corbin Carroll, the D-Backs are quickly re-entering a competitive window.
However, the Diamondbacks’ bullpen is still falling flat. After signing Mark Melancon to a 2-year, $12MM contract ($5MM mutual option for the 2024 season, $2MM buyout) and Ian Kennedy to a 1-year, $4.5MM contract ($4MM club option for the 2023 season, $250K buyout), the D-Backs’ pen posted the sixth-highest ERA (4.58), the eighth-most blown saves (27), the lowest strikeout rate (19.7%), and allowed the third-highest batting average (.254). Veterans Melancon and Kennedy did not fare much better. Melancon pitched to a 4.66 ERA in 56 innings with a paltry 14.2% strikeout rate and a career-worst 43.2% ground ball rate, while Kennedy pitched to a 5.36 ERA in 50 1/3 innings with a weak 19.0% strikeout rate and an extremely low 24.4% groundball rate.
However, the breakout of lefty journeyman Joe Mantiply was a bright spot among an otherwise weak bullpen performance. Mantiply, a former 27th-round pick from Virginia Tech by the Tigers in 2013, reached the majors for a quick stint in 2016, before shuffling around various minor league teams and undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2018. He signed a minor league deal with Arizona in 2020, making another short appearance in 2020 before eventually joining the team in a more long-term fashion during the 2021 season, in which he pitched 39 2/3 innings to a 3.40 ERA with opponents hitting a strong .292/.358/.448 against him.
In the 2022 season Mantiply, who is controllable through the 2026 season, improved his 2021 numbers. Pitching to a low 2.85 ERA in 60 innings with a solid 25.1% strikeout rate, a sparkling 2.5% walk rate, and missing hitters’ barrels (99th percentile for Chase Rate, 94th percentile for Barrel %), the 31-year-old earned a trip to the All-Star game in his second full season. Left-handed hitters have found limited success against Mantiply, slashing a poor .247/.297/.282 against him, while righties are hitting a slightly better .260/.272/.404. The unsightly .252 combined average may be cause for concern, however, Mantiply is tied for the 27th lowest Hard Hit%, among relievers to pitch 50+ innings, and is in the 89th percentile for Average Exit Velocity.
The Diamondbacks will likely look to address their bullpen again this offseason, but with a high-leverage lefty reliever in Mantiply, they will have one less bullpen spot to fill.
15 Players Elect Free Agency
As the postseason rolls along, players hit minor league free agency daily. It’s customary each offseason for dozens of players to hit the open market, separate from the players who reach MLB free agency at the end of the World Series based on the expiration of their contracts while having six-plus years of MLB service time.
Any player who is not on his team’s 40-man roster at season’s end but has three-plus years of MLB service, multiple career outright assignments and/or seven-plus seasons in the minor leagues has the right to elect free agency. Everyone in today’s group falls under that umbrella. The majority will take minor league deals over the winter, although one or two could find a big league deal as a bench piece or middle-inning reliever.
MLBTR covered 34 players who qualified for minor league free agency last week. We’ll periodically provide updates as plenty more hit the open market, as reflected on the MiLB.com transactions log.
Pitchers
- R.J. Alvarez (Mets)
- Shaun Anderson (Blue Jays)
- Anthony Castro (Orioles)
- Alex Claudio (Mets)
- Phillip Diehl (Mets)
- Dusten Knight (Rays)
- Brian Moran (Angels)
- Cristofer Ogando (Rays)
- Cam Vieaux (Pirates)
- J.B. Wendelken (D-Backs)
Infielders
- Mike Ford (Angels)
- Deven Marrero (Mets)
- Yolmer Sanchez (Mets)
- Elliot Soto (Twins)
Outfielders
- Luis Barrera (A’s)
Hazen: D-Backs To Pursue Bullpen Help, Open To Adding At Catcher
The Diamondbacks had a quietly solid second half, setting themselves up for an interesting offseason. Arizona’s 73-89 overall record is obviously far from where they want to be, but the team has seen a number of young position players begin to produce at the major league level.
General manager Mike Hazen addressed the roster during his end-of-season media session yesterday. He provided a rundown of areas the club will look to address this winter (link via Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic).
Unsurprisingly, Hazen suggested that adding to the bullpen will be a priority. The D-Backs ran out a well below-average relief group for a third consecutive season, finishing the year 25th in ERA (4.58). Arizona relievers ranked last in the big leagues in strikeout rate (19.7%) and 28th in swinging strike percentage (10.9%). Hazen flatly stated improving the bullpen’s strikeout numbers will be a priority, suggesting the club will look into higher-velocity arms to that end.
Arizona added a pair of veteran relievers, Mark Melancon and Ian Kennedy, in free agency last winter. Kennedy was coming off an above-average 27.2% strikeout percentage with the Rangers and Phillies in 2021, but he stumbled to a 19% strikeout rate while losing a tick on his average fastball this season. Melancon hasn’t been a high-strikeout arm for years, and he posted a 4.66 ERA during his first season in the desert after posting a sub-3.00 mark in each of the previous two years. Melancon will be back next season on a $6MM salary, while Kennedy is a virtual lock to be bought out.
Of the 17 D-Backs relievers to top 10 innings pitched, only four had a swinging strike rate better than the 11.8% league average. Only one member of that group, All-Star lefty Joe Mantiply, is a lock to return. Arizona has already parted with Noé Ramirez, while Keynan Middleton and Caleb Smith were both extremely homer-prone and seem likely to be non-tendered.
The D-Backs aren’t going to make a run at a top-of-the-market free agent reliever like Edwin Díaz, but pitchers like Trevor May, Adam Ottavino and Miguel Castro are all hitting free agency after posting quality swing-and-miss numbers. Robert Suarez, who has a $5MM player option for next year with the Padres, and Carlos Estévez are among the hardest-throwing relievers who’ll be available. Hazen also suggested the front office would be more amenable than they’ve been in recent years to dealing young talent for relief help.
While the bullpen will be a key target area, it’s certainly not the only spot on the roster the D-Backs will be open to adding. Hazen indicated the club could look into offensive help, pointing to catcher as a position they could address. Carson Kelly has been the primary backstop for the past four seasons, but he’s never made the strides as a hitter the team had hoped when adding him as a central piece of the Paul Goldschmidt trade. Kelly looked as if he was on the way to his breakout with an excellent first two months in 2021, but that year was thrown off track by a right wrist fracture in late June. In the season and a half since that point, Kelly owns a .214/.287/.344 line in 526 trips to the plate.
While Hazen praised the 28-year-old’s defensive ability, he added that “chasing a little more offense at that position, given what the rest of the roster could look like, is something that we might take a look at.” It’d register as a surprise if they make a run at the top free agent at the position, Willson Contreras, but Arizona does have a fair amount of long-term financial flexibility. The Snakes have roughly $59MM on next season’s books (not including projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players) and just $38MM committed by 2024.
There aren’t many definitive offensive upgrades other than Contreras available in free agency, but the trade market figures to feature a couple of the sport’s better two-way backstops. The A’s Sean Murphy will be eligible for arbitration for the first time and could be available as Oakland continues its roster overhaul. Murphy hit .250/.322/.426 through 612 plate appearances, offense that checks in 22 points better than league average by measure of wRC+. It’s also possible the Blue Jays leverage their stockpile of catching depth for help elsewhere, moving a player like Danny Jansen on the heels of a .260/.339/.516 showing.
Whether at catcher or another position, Hazen suggested adding a right-handed bat to the mix was a possibility, as Arizona’s in-house lineup skews left-handed. Among their current projected regulars, only Kelly, first baseman Christian Walker and shortstop Nick Ahmed hit right-handed. Kelly, who’d be due a raise on this season’s $3.325MM salary via arbitration, could be non-tendered if the Snakes find an upgrade at catcher. Ahmed isn’t a lock to return to everyday duty after missing almost all of this season with a shoulder injury, and he’s a bottom-of-the-lineup defensive specialist even when at full strength.
The D-Backs have a number of lefty-swinging outfielders, all of whom are capable of playing all three outfield spots. Corbin Carroll and Daulton Varsho were top minor league talents, and both played well this season. Carroll didn’t make his MLB debut until late August, but both he and Varsho are guaranteed everyday reps going into next year. Jake McCarthy wasn’t the same level of prospect, but he hit .283/.342/.427 over 354 trips to the dish in 2022. Alek Thomas didn’t perform well in the majors, hitting .231/.275/.344 over 411 plate appearances. Still, he’s an excellent defensive outfielder and entered this season as a top prospect.
That quartet has varying levels of trade value — Carroll and Varsho would have more appeal than McCarthy or Thomas — but there’s reason for optimism among all of that group. It’s hard to envision the Diamondbacks parting with Carroll or Varsho, but dealing one of McCarthy or Thomas seems possible. Hazen unsurprisingly noted he doesn’t feel he has to trade anyone, pointing to the ability to rotate them through the designated hitter position, but he sounded amenable to a move in the right circumstance. “Take a left-handed hitting outfielder and turn him into a right-handed hitting slugger, yeah, I can see that puzzle coming together,” Hazen said (via Piecoro). “It’s not going to be taking one of those guys and trading them for prospects in that type of way.”
Theoretically the D-Backs could also leverage their outfield depth to add starting pitching behind the top duo of Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. While Arizona has a number of interesting young arms at or near the MLB level — Drey Jameson, Ryne Nelson, Brandon Pfaadt and Blake Walston among them — there’s still a fair bit of uncertainty with any unproven young pitcher. Madison Bumgarner, whom the club signed to a five-year deal to be the staff ace, hasn’t come close to matching his previous production in San Francisco. The four-time All-Star has an ERA of 4.67 or higher in all three of his seasons as a Diamondback, including a 4.88 mark with just a 16% strikeout rate through 30 starts this year.
Bumgarner has two years and $37MM remaining on his deal, and the D-Backs would be hard-pressed to find a taker for any notable portion of that money on the trade market. Hazen suggested the 33-year-old will have an inside track at a rotation job heading into next season but implied his leash could be getting shorter. “I do think incumbency probably matters when you’re going into spring training, for sure, especially with the younger guys that we have,” the GM said of Bumgarner’s status. “But if the expectation next year is going to be moving the ball forward from where we are right now, we are going to be making decisions that we need to make as we need to make them.”
D-Backs fans will want to read through Piecoro’s piece in full, as it contains myriad quotes from Hazen on the status of the roster and the organization’s offseason plans.