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Offseason Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks

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2021 was a Murphy’s law season for the Diamondbacks, who entered the year expecting to at least hang around in the Wild Card race. Instead, they dealt with myriad injuries, saw some typically reliable veterans take steps back, and had perhaps the game’s worst bullpen. The result: a 52-110 record that calls the franchise’s entire direction into question.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Madison Bumgarner, LHP: $60MM through 2024 ($10MM between 2022-23 deferred until after the contract’s expiration)
  • Nick Ahmed, SS: $18.25MM through 2023
  • Mark Melancon, RHP: $14MM through 2023 (including $2MM buyout on $5MM mutual option for 2024)
  • Ketel Marte, 2B: $9.4MM through 2022 (including $1MM buyout on $10MM club option for 2023; contract also contains $12MM club option for 2024)
  • David Peralta, LF: $7.5MM through 2022
  • Merrill Kelly, RHP: $5.25MM through 2022

Total 2022 commitments: $58.025MM

Projected Salaries for Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

Free Agents

Unlike a few other teams near the bottom of the standings, the Diamondbacks have not been rebuilding. Arizona went 85-77 with a +70 run differential in 2019. That winter, they signed Kole Calhoun and brought back most of the position player core. They stumbled to a 25-35 finish in 2020, but it was fair to largely write that off as an anomalous down season in a shortened schedule.

That’s no longer the case, as they’re coming off an NL-worst showing over a full season. Some of that can be attributed to tough injury luck, particularly in a starting rotation that lost all four of its top members for a month or more at some point during the year. Yet even pristine health wouldn’t have had the D-Backs anywhere near the Giants and Dodgers at the top of the NL West, leaving the front office with plenty of questions about how to get back to where they were a couple years ago.

That won’t take the form of a leadership change, at least not at the top. The club signed manager Torey Lovullo to a one-year extension in September, locking him in for a sixth season at the helm. They did overhaul Lovullo’s coaching staff, including the hiring of highly respected pitching coach Brent Strom. But it’ll be Lovullo leading the clubhouse for the franchise’s hopeful turnaround.

Based on the comments of the team’s top executives and their early-offseason actions, it doesn’t seem that’ll take the form of a massive rebuild. General manager Mike Hazen pushed back against the notion of a teardown numerous times during the year, and he largely reiterated that stance after the season. “This isn’t a situation, for me, where we are relying on a series of top-five draft picks to get us back into a position where we should be,” he told reporters in October. “That’s my opinion.”

Hazen’s top lieutenant, assistant GM Amiel Sawdaye, largely echoed that sentiment at last month’s GM Meetings. “We go into every season with the idea that we want to put the best possible team out there that’s going to go out and compete,” Sawdaye said. “I don’t think we ever wave the white flag and say, ‘Well, we’re going to give up on ’22.”

Both Hazen and Sawdaye suggested the D-Backs would remain open to trade offers on long-term players, but neither exec sounded enamored with that possibility. Arizona held onto players like Ketel Marte, Carson Kelly and Josh Rojas at the trade deadline, a time when Hazen expressed a desire to anchor the club’s next competitive window around a few marquee contributors.

There’ll surely be robust interest in all those players, as well as in staff ace Zac Gallen. The Marlins, for instance, have already been tied to Marte this winter. Yet there’s also no urgency for the D-Backs to pull the trigger on a deal unless they’re completely overwhelmed with a prospect package or leaning into a full rebuild. The latter option doesn’t seem to be on the table, so teams will need to bowl Arizona over to land anyone from that group, each of whom is controllable for at least three more seasons (barring changes to the service time structure in the next CBA).

It seems likely the Diamondbacks will keep their young core intact heading into 2022, but trades of veteran role players remain a possibility. The Snakes may not want to punt next season entirely, but it’s also clear they’re facing an uphill battle competing in a division with two of baseball’s top teams and a third (the Padres) with one of the more star-studded rosters in the league. So a moderate sell-off with an eye towards 2023 and beyond figures to be the middle ground in which they settle.

Starter Merrill Kelly and left fielder David Peralta are both entering the final seasons of their contracts. Kelly, who’ll make an affordable $5.25MM, should be of particular interest to more immediate contenders. The right-hander owns a 4.27 ERA in 372 2/3 innings over the past three seasons. He has below-average swing-and-miss and strikeout numbers, but Kelly’s an adept strike-thrower who does a decent job keeping the ball on the ground. He’s a source of affordable, league average innings that could bolster a contending club’s starting staff. It’d be a surprise if Kelly weren’t traded at some point — either this offseason or at next summer’s deadline.

Interest in Peralta figures to be more muted. His $7.5MM salary isn’t onerous, but the 34-year-old is coming off a modest .259/.325/.402 showing. Peralta has mixed in a couple excellent seasons in his career, but he’s typically offered league average hitting and solid but unspectacular defense in left field. Teams like the White Sox and Phillies could consider him as a lefty-hitting corner outfield option, but it’s unlikely the D-Backs would recoup much more than a fringe prospect and/or salary relief in any deal. At that point, it may be better to hang onto the longtime member of the organization as a veteran presence for a fairly young locker room.

There aren’t a ton of other obvious trade candidates on the roster. The D-Backs would surely welcome the opportunity to get much of the $60MM remaining on the Madison Bumgarner contract off the books, but it’s hard to see another club having interest in such an arrangement. Bumgarner has struggled mightily with home runs as his velocity has dipped in the desert, making his five-year deal from the 2019-20 offseason look like a major misstep.

First baseman Christian Walker and shortstop Nick Ahmed are each coming off seasons valued at marginally above replacement level. Ahmed, who’s one of the game’s top defensive infielders, could draw some interest from shortstop-needy clubs looking for a stopgap veteran at the position. (The Yankees, Astros and Angels could all fit that bill). With a salary that guarantees him a bit more than $18MM over the next two seasons, though, it seems likely the D-Backs would have to pay some money to facilitate a trade for a marginal prospect return. As with Peralta, it probably makes more sense for Arizona to hold onto Ahmed into the season.

Perhaps aside from a Merrill Kelly trade, there may not be many traditional “seller” moves by the Diamondbacks this winter. In fact, they’ve already made one meaningful move in the opposite direction. Arizona inked veteran closer Mark Melancon to a two-year deal just before the lockout, and he’ll immediately step in as the veteran anchor of a young relief corps. Melancon doesn’t have big velocity or swing-and-miss numbers, but he’s a solid strike-thrower who continues to post impressive ground-ball and soft contact rates.

Further upgrades could be on the horizon, as Arizona is only bringing back one reliever (swingman Caleb Smith) who logged at least 20+ innings with above-average strikeout and walk numbers this past season. The Snakes have reportedly poked around the market for veteran middle relievers Hunter Strickland and Bryan Shaw and could circle back to them or others of that ilk. Those wouldn’t be world-beating signings, but they’d be affordable and perhaps raise the floor in the middle innings.

Arizona has also reportedly expressed some interest in Wily Peralta, and a swing option could indeed make some sense. The D-Backs’ rotation is one of the thinner groups around the league. Gallen’s a quality young arm, and he’s likely to return at the top of the rotation. Bumgarner will get another opportunity, and Kelly would have a spot if he’s not moved.

Luke Weaver looks likely to claim a spot in the back-end. A former highly-regarded prospect, Weaver has been up-and-down over the past couple seasons in Phoenix. He generally posts solid enough strikeout and walk numbers to compensate for home run issues, and the D-Backs don’t have enough in-house alternatives to bump Weaver out of the starting staff at the moment.

The fifth spot (or final two spots if Kelly is traded) looks completely up for grabs. Tyler Gilbert, who warmed plenty of hearts by tossing a no-hitter in his first career start, might be the favorite after posting a 3.47 ERA as a rookie. His peripherals didn’t support that run prevention number, though, and Gilbert’s not long removed from being a minor league Rule 5 draftee. Awesome as his no-hitter was, he’s probably better suited as a depth option than a rotation cog. Taylor Widener, Humberto Castellanos and Humberto Mejia are among the other arms who could be in the mix, but none of that trio was particularly impressive in 2021. Smith could factor in as well but is probably better suited for relief.

The free agent rotation market has been largely picked through already, but Arizona could offer some innings to potential reclamation candidates. Vince Velasquez, Chad Kuhl and Zach Davies are among the speculative possibilities available for that kind of dart throw. Each is coming off a poor enough season they won’t be costly, but they’ve all found some level of success in years past.

Pitching figures to be the priority, coming off a season in which Arizona had the league’s second-worst ERA and third-worst SIERA. There’s room for some upgrades on the position player side, with Hazen and Sawdaye each highlighting third base in recent weeks as a target area. Arizona’s not going to pursue Kris Bryant, and a run at 34-year-old Kyle Seager probably isn’t in the cards for a team in the D-Backs’ uncertain competitive position.

Aside from perhaps Jonathan Villar, free agency doesn’t offer much else in the way of regulars there. While the D-Backs could theoretically poke around the trade market in search of a controllable option at the hot corner, they’re not especially likely to surrender prospects from the top couple tiers of the farm system. Perhaps there’s a creative swap to be had for a young infielder in an organization with more high-level depth. Taylor Walls of the Rays, J.D. Davis of the Mets and Ha-Seong Kim of the Padres are among potential trade targets of varying cost and windows of remaining control.

It’s also possible the D-Backs are left to run things back with their in-house options. Ahmed, if not moved, will be back at shortstop, with prospect Geraldo Perdomo a potential midseason candidate if he plays well at Triple-A. Marte seems likely to move back to second base full-time after rating poorly in center field. Ideally, Rojas would probably bounce around the diamond regularly, but he’s the likeliest option to assume the lion’s share of time at third base if the team doesn’t upgrade externally.

The D-Backs could look into the possibility of replacing Walker at first base. That’s particularly true if the designated hitter comes to the National League, with youngster Seth Beer likely assuming that role and leaving Walker as the primary first baseman. Despite his down season, the D-Backs tendered Walker an arbitration contract at a projected $2.7MM salary. His presence probably won’t foreclose the possibility of an upgrade — arbitration contracts aren’t fully guaranteed until Opening Day, so they could still move on at little financial cost — but that suggests the front office isn’t completely determined to cut bait with Walker either.

Kelly is the obvious #1 option behind the plate. He wasn’t right after returning from a June wrist fracture, but the 27-year-old had been off to an All-Star caliber start to the season. The D-Backs can only hope an offseason of rest will allow him to regain his pre-injury form. If that happens, Kelly could be one of the best two-way backstops around the league. They’ll probably acquire a veteran complement via low-cost free agency or waivers, since Jose Herrera — who has never appeared in the majors — is the only other primary catcher on the club’s 40-man roster.

That tabulation doesn’t include Daulton Varsho, who offers one of the more unconventional defensive profiles around. The 25-year-old started 37 games behind the dish and 36 games in the outfield in 2021, with more than half of his outfield outings coming in center field. There’s little precedent for a catcher with Varsho’s level of athleticism, but it’s also unclear for how long he’ll stick behind the plate. Scouting reports have raised questions about both his glove and arm strength in the past, and Kelly’s presence could regulate Varsho to predominant outfield work.

That’s particularly true in light of Hazen’s late-season comments on the team’s defensive approach. The front office head suggested to reporters in September that the club may have had too many moving parts. “I think we’ve pushed that [moving players around the diamond] to the limit and I think you’ve seen the dam break a little bit this year,” Hazen said at the time. “I do think we have to start honing in on who is going to thrive in that setting and who would be better off locking down one spot.  Those are going to be part of the conversations we’ll be having.”

That could mean regular outfield reps for Varsho, who hit at a league average level during his first extended MLB run in 2021. He might be stretched a bit in center field, but the 2017 draftee looks like an above-average corner defender at the very least. He’ll join Peralta, Pavin Smith and Jake McCarthy as lefty-hitting outfield options, while they’re bringing back Stuart Fairchild and already traded for Jordan Luplow to add some help from the right side.

There’s not a ton of certainty in that mix, but there’s enough youth and promise that the D-Backs will probably deal with some growing pains to evaluate their internal group. Perhaps they’ll look into low base or non-roster deals involving a strong defensive center fielder, with Billy Hamilton and old friend Ender Inciarte among the players in that mold. But there’s unlikely to be a huge move on the grass over the coming months.

Generally speaking, that seems true for much of the franchise. In spite of the highly disappointing past couple seasons, the Diamondbacks don’t seem destined for an organizational restructuring. That’s a defensible course of action. The D-Backs already have the kind of young core, particularly on the position player side, with which teams are hoping to come out of a rebuild.  They already possess one of the game’s better farm systems, and they’ll add another blue chip prospect with the second pick in next year’s draft. There’s no guarantee the organization would come out of a rebuild more definitively stronger in 2024 or 2025 than they are right now.

Yet they’re also in danger of falling into an undesirable gray area, particularly within the NL West. They’re far worse than the three teams at the top of the division, leaving no clear path to contention in 2022. There’s certainly room to go up, and the D-Backs aren’t likely as bad next season as they were this year. Whether this roster’s capable of improving enough to avert the overhaul to which organizational leadership seems so opposed remains to be seen.

D-backs Hire Jason McLeod As Special Assistant

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The Diamondbacks have named former Cubs, Padres and Red Sox executive Jason McLeod a special assistant to general manager Mike Hazen, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). McLeod’s contract with the Cubs expired at the end of the 2021 season.

A move to Arizona for McLeod is in some ways natural, as both he and Hazen have roots in the Red Sox organization. McLeod and Hazen worked together in Boston from 2006-09, when Hazen was the team’s director of player development. However, McLeod jumped to the Padres in 2009 when Jed Hoyer was named GM in San Diego, and he reunited with Hoyer and president Theo Epstein (formerly the GM in Boston) when the Epstein/Hoyer regime took the reins in the Cubs’ front office.

With the Cubs, McLeod served as a vice president overseeing player development, amateur scouting and player personnel at various points (though not all simultaneously). In addition to Hazen, McLeod is no stranger to D-backs assistant general manager Amiel Sawdaye, who was Boston’s assistant director of amateur scouting from 2005-09.

McLeod has previously been seen as a candidate for various general manager vacancies, interviewing with the Twins in 2016, with Mets in 2018, with the Giants in 2018 and with the Angels in 2020. McLeod was reportedly a finalist for that Halos vacancy, though the Angels eventually went with Perry Minasian as their new baseball ops leader. McLeod’s role with the D-backs is somewhat nebulous — as is often the case with special assistants of this nature; Rosenthal suggests he’ll contribute “in a variety of areas,” although as a special assistant, McLeod won’t oversee any one specific department like he did in Chicago.

Marlins Interested In Ketel Marte

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The Marlins have shown interest in the Diamondbacks’ Ketel Marte, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal.  There isn’t any indication that a deal was close prior to the lockout, and it remains to be seen if Arizona would be even open to moving Marte at all.

As Rosenthal plainly puts it, the D’backs “would need a monster package to move Marte.”  The former All-Star is entering his age-29 season and is controlled through the next three seasons — an $8MM salary in 2022, and then club options for both 2023 and 204 that would pay Marte a total of $22MM if both options were exercised.

Marte broke out with a huge 2019 season that saw him finish fourth in NL MVP voting.  After a disappointing 2020 campaign, Marte rebounded to hit .318/.377/.532 with 14 home runs last season, though he was limited to only 90 games due to a pair of hamstring injuries.  In both 2019 and 2021, Marte has enjoyed large BABIPs and wOBA totals that have outpaced his xwOBA, so there is some question about just how sustainable his elite production is, plus his speed and baserunning skills have been in decline.  Still, Marte makes a lot of hard contact and rarely strikes out, and it is possible he could use a change of scenery given the Diamondbacks’ dismal results over the last two seasons.

Between Marte’s age, ability, and his very reasonable contract, Rosenthal points out that the D’backs would want more for Marte than they received in either the Paul Goldschmidt or Zack Greinke trades.  To put it in perspective, Arizona received two MLB-ready younger players (Luke Weaver, Carson Kelly), one notable prospect (Andrew Young, who has since made his big league debut) and a Competitive Balance Round draft pick from the Cardinals for Goldschmidt back in the 2018-19 offseason.  For dealing Greinke to the Astros at the 2019 trade deadline, the D’Backs got four prospects in return.

Miami could be a team well-suited to meet the Diamondbacks’ high asking price, given how the Marlins have been open to trading from their surplus of starting pitchers.  The Fish have lots of young pitching depth in the minors and even some names from their current big league staff could be available, with Elieser Hernandez and Pablo Lopez considered to be available.  (Sandy Alcantara can be safely removed from the list of trade candidates considering his recent five-year extension.)

The Marlins would presumably deploy Marte in center field, with Jesus Sanchez and the newly-acquired Avisail Garcia flanking Marte in the corners.  However, defensive metrics are mixed at best (-8 Outs Above Average and -12 Defensive Runs Saved, but a +2.3 UZR/150) on Marte’s glovework as an outfielder, and while his numbers as a second baseman are similarly unspectacular, Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen indicated that Arizona would likely keep Marte as something close to a full-time second baseman in 2022.  Playing the infield could help keep Marte healthier, but the Marlins might also view Marte’s outfield defense as improvable if he is focused on playing only center field, whereas the D’Backs moved Marte around between center, second base, and shortstop.

In other trade talks between the two sides, Rosenthal writes that the Marlins also checked on Kelly’s availability.  Presumably, Kelly is no longer on Miami’s radar now that the Marlins have acquired Jacob Stallings to fill their catching vacancy.

Diamondbacks Sign Mark Melancon

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The Diamondbacks have added a proven closer to their murky bullpen mix, signing reliever Mark Melancon to a two-year contract with a $14MM guarantee. The ISE Baseball client will receive a salary of $6MM in both 2022 and 2023. The deal also comes with a $5MM mutual option for 2024, which includes a $2MM buyout.

Melancon is coming off his seventh career sub-3.00 ERA season — his second in as many years. After signing with the Padres for a comparatively paltry one year and $3MM shortly before the start of 2021 Spring Training, the four-time All-Star led the big leagues in saves for the second time in his career, notching 39 in 64 appearances.

Though something of a journeyman — and hardly a flamethrower by today’s standards — Melancon has established himself as one of the game’s most consistently effective relievers. Across a 13-year career with the Yankees, Astros, Red Sox, Pirates, Nationals, Giants, Braves, and Padres, Melancon has covered 670 2/3 innings with a sparkling 2.79 ERA (2.94 FIP). His 244 saves ranked fourth among active players, behind only Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen, and Aroldis Chapman.

Unusually unreliant on the strikeout for a closer (his 22.6% strikeout rate barely exceeds the major league average of 20.6%), Melancon relies on an elevated ground ball rate (56.4%; league average is 43.8%) to limit the longball; indeed, his home run rate of 1.4% is less than half the 2.9% big-league average. Though now entering his age-37 season, these trends have shown no signs of decline; since 2019, Melancon’s GB% and HR% are 58.7% and 1.4%, respectively — right in line with his career numbers.

Though he hasn’t had a poor season since at least 2012, when he posted a 6.20 ERA (4.58 FIP) in Boston, Melancon has experienced something of a late-career resurgence. From 2013 to 2016, he put together 290 innings of 1.80 ERA ball — good for an eye-popping 213 ERA+ — to go along with 147 saves for the Pirates and Nationals, including a majors-leading 51 for Pittsburgh in 2015. He turned those numbers into a four-year, $62MM pact with the Giants after the 2016 season, though a blood flow issue limited his availability and effectiveness. In 115 1/3 innings in San Francisco, Melancon compiled a still-solid 3.67 ERA (3.32 FIP) before heading to Atlanta in a deadline-day trade in 2019. He’s since pitched 108 1/3 innings of 2.66 ERA ball between the Braves and Padres.

The move to Phoenix represents something of a homecoming for Melancon, who played college ball at the University of Arizona in Tucson. The move is at least a bit surprising, though, as D-backs GM Mike Hazen had frankly admitted the club is unlikely to in contend 2022. Coming off an NL-worst 52-110 record in 2021, Arizona looks at least a few years from contention, even as several of their top players (Ketel Marte, Zac Gallen, Carson Kelly) are under team control for several years to come.

Arizona will hope that Melancon can stabilize a bullpen in need of a few more arms but with several serviceable pieces. Caleb Smith, Noe Ramirez, and J.B. Wendelken will return after solid years, and 23-year-old Luis Frias will look to build on a promising debut in 2021. Few other relievers were able to string multiple solid outings together, however, as the club finished third from the bottom with a 5.08 ERA on the year — ahead of only the Nationals and Orioles.

The Diamondbacks may not contend in 2022, but Hazen’s decision to give real (if comparatively modest) money to Melancon could signal that he’s sincere in his stated preference to hold onto his best young players. Marte in particular would return a king’s ransom, but Arizona does have a top-10 farm system (No. 9, per MLB Pipeline) that includes three top-50 prospects in Jordan Lawlar, Corbin Carroll, and Alek Thomas (though only Thomas is close to big-league-ready).

According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, Melancon’s $6MM 2022 salary will put the D-backs just north of $55MM in salary commitments for 2022 (excluding salaries for players eligible for arbitration), a big step down from last year’s roughly $96MM number. Hazen’s comments likely signal that the club intends to remain below that number, but he will like have space to continue to add should he choose to do so.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic was the first to report the signing; Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the guaranteed money; and Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic tweeted Melancon’s annual salaries and the terms of his option. 

 

Bullpen Notes: Rodriguez, Peralta, Strickland, Shaw, Marlins

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Right-hander Richard Rodriguez was one of the more prominent names cut loose before last night’s non-tender deadline, and now that the Braves have parted ways with the reliever, Jason Mackey of The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports (Twitter link) that the Pirates are interested in bringing Rodriguez back to the Steel City.  Rodriguez posted strong numbers throughout his three-plus seasons in the Pirates’ bullpen, which made him a hot commodity heading into the July trade deadline.  While Rodriguez’s peripherals didn’t back up his excellent on-field performance to begin this season, the Bucs were still able to move him to Atlanta for two young arms on July 30.

The righty still managed a 3.12 ERA during his 26 innings for the Braves, but Rodriguez’s home run rate skyrocketed and his strikeout rate dropped off the map to only 8.5%.  Atlanta didn’t use Rodriguez during the playoffs, and non-tendered him rather than pay a projected $3.1MM arbitration salary.  On paper, it would seem like a reunion between Rodriguez and the Pirates would work out well for both sides, as the Bucs would gain some more relief depth, and Rodriguez would try to get himself on track in a familiar environment.

More from the relief pitching market…

  • The Diamondbacks just made a splash in the relief market by signing Mark Melancon, but the club has also “at least checked on” such arms as Wily Peralta, Bryan Shaw, and Hunter Strickland, according to The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan (Twitter link).  All three right-handers had pretty decent bottom-line numbers in 2021, though the advanced metrics weren’t as impressed by their work.  Nonetheless, any could provide some help to an Arizona bullpen that badly struggled last season, and Peralta could factor into the rotation mix after starting 18 of his 19 games with the Tigers.  Shaw began his career with the D’Backs as a second-round pick for the team back in 2008, and he pitched his first two MLB seasons in a Diamondbacks uniform.
  • While the Marlins have been busy with some notable lineup additions, the club hasn’t yet done much to their relief corps.  GM Kim Ng told reporters (including The Miami Herald’s Craig Mish) that the bullpen market has been a bit slower in general, but now that the Marlins have finished some of the heavy lifting with their hitting upgrades, the pen will get more focus.  Miami’s pen posted some pretty solid numbers in 2021, and the front office has already made one move by acquiring right-hander Louis Head in a trade with the Rays.

Minor MLB Transactions: 12/01/21

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Some recent minor moves from around baseball:

  • The Rockies have signed right-handed reliever J.D. Hammer to a minor league deal, according to Thomas Harding of MLB.com. In 23 2/3 innings at Triple-A this year in the Phillies’ organization, Hammer managed an ERA of 3.80 with a hefty 34.3% strikeout rate but also an elevated walk rate of 12.4%. At the big league level, he logged 20 innings with an ERA of 4.95, 23.4% strikeout rate and 11.7% walk rate. The Phils outrighted the 27-year-old at the end of the season and he elected free agency.
  • The Diamondbacks announced that they’ve returned infielder Jake Hager to the organization on a minor league deal. Hager started 2021 in the Mets organization and then was designated for assignment and claimed on waivers three times, bouncing to the Brewers, Mariners and Diamondbacks. Arizona then outrighted him in September. The 28-year-old didn’t hit much in the big leagues this year, but in a tiny sample of 30 plate appearances over 14 games. He played 82 Triple-A games in 2021 between those four organizations, hitting .240/.311/.461.
  • The Giants have agreed to a minor league deal with right-handed reliever Trevor Hildenberger, according to the MLB.com transactions tracker. Hildenberger logged 2 1/3 MLB innings for the Mets this year before being claimed and outrighted by the Giants. In 23 Triple-A innings for Sacramento River Cats, the 30-year-old put up an ERA of 4.70 with a strikeout rate of 22.5% and walk rate of 12.7%.
  • The Nationals have signed infielder Richard Urena to a minor league deal, per the MLB.com transactions tracker. The 25-year-old has played in 91 big league games in his career but hasn’t cracked the majors since 2019. In 2021, he played 92 Triple-A games in the Blue Jays’ system, hitting .272/.310/.438.
  • Outfielder Henry Ramos is joining the KT Wiz of the KBO, as relayed by Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net. The 29-year-old had an unbelievable Triple-A season in 2021, slashing .371/.439/.582 over 294 plate appearances. He was selected by the Diamondbacks in September and got into 18 games, hitting .200/.255/.300 over 55 plate appearances. He was outrighted by the DBacks in October.

Outrights: Scrubb, de Geus, Martin, Anderson

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As a busy evening of contract tendering (and non-tendering) draws to a close, some players find themselves in a new position of being outrighted off their team’s 40-man roster. The following players cleared waivers and remain with one of their organization’s minor league affiliates:

  • Right-handed Astros reliever Andre Scrubb has been outrighted to Triple-A Sugar Land. Scrubb posted a shiny 1.90 ERA across 23 innings last season despite a huge 19.6% walk rate. His ERA regressed to 5.03 in a similar sample size of 19 innings, while his home run rate ballooned to nearly double the league average.
  • Arizona infielder Andrew Young and right-handed pitcher Brett de Geus  are ticketed for Double-A Amarillo and Triple-A Reno, respectively. Young demonstrated strong power numbers in limited action but struck out an untenable 43.3% of the time. The 24-year-old de Geus was a Rule 5 pick who was thrown into the fire by both the Rangers and Diamondbacks this season, but will return to the minors for additional seasoning after recently being designated for assignment.
  • Baltimore shortstop Richie Martin is headed to Triple-A Norfolk following a sub-replacement level season as an Oriole. The 26-year-old Martin has shown some offensive prowess at Double-A in the past, but for now he’ll look to establish himself as a plus hitter at Triple-A for the first time.
  • Blue Jays right-hander Shaun Anderson is on his way to Triple-A Buffalo after a busy season that saw him pitch for three big league teams, only to be claimed by Toronto in mid-November. Anderson didn’t have much go right in his 23 innings this year, but has consistently been capable of 3-something ERAs in the minor leagues as a starter or reliever.

National League Non-Tenders: 11/30/21

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We’ve now passed the deadline for teams to tender contracts to pre-arb and arbitration-eligible players. We’ll keep track of the more minor players non-tendered in the National League here. The American League non-tenders are available at this link.

As a reminder, you can view MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players here:

  • The Cardinals announced they’ve non-tendered utilityman José Rondon. The right-handed hitting infielder tallied 90 plate appearances this past season while suiting up at a handful of position.
  • The Giants announced they’ve non-tendered outfielder Luis González, right-hander Sam Delaplane and southpaw Joe Palumbo. None of that trio was arbitration-eligible, and all three were recently acquired via minor transactions. It wouldn’t be a surprise if San Francisco attempts to work out minor league pacts with one or more of that group now that they’ve been removed from the 40-man roster.
  • The Phillies have non-tendered southpaw Kyle Dohy and re-signed him to a minor league contract, per a team announcement. He’ll remain in the organization but no longer occupies a spot on the 40-man roster. Dohy made on major league appearance in 2021.
  • The Padres announced they’ve non-tendered relievers José Castillo, Trey Wingenter, and Matt Strahm. Castillo and Wingenter haven’t pitched since 2019 because of arm injuries that necessitated Tommy John surgeries. Strahm was limited to just 6 2/3 frames in 2021 by health issues himself.
  • The Cubs are non-tendering reliever Jason Adam, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The southpaw missed much of the season after suffering a gruesome ankle fracture in Triple-A in May, but he made a triumphant late-season return to the big leagues. Adam ultimately tossed 10 2/3 innings over 12 outings. Chicago also announced they’ve non-tendered outfielder Michael Hermosillo, who made a late-season appearance on the big league roster.
  • The Mets have non-tendered outfielder Mark Payton, per a club announcement. The left-handed hitter was acquired from the Reds midseason but never suited up for New York at the major league level.
  • The Reds have non-tendered righty Brandon Bailey, per a team announcement. The 27-year-old made five appearances with the Astros in 2020. He missed all of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery, the second such procedure of his career. Bailey is re-signing on a minor league deal with a Spring Training invitation but will no longer occupy a spot on the 40-man roster, reports C. Trent Rosecrans of the Athletic.
  • The Nationals announced three non-tenders: relievers Wander Suero and Ryne Harper and first baseman Mike Ford. Suero is the most notable of the group, having been an effective set-up option at times during his four-season run in D.C. He struggled to a 6.33 ERA across 42 2/3 innings in 2021, though.
  • The Mets have non-tendered reliever Stephen Nogosek, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (on Twitter). The right-hander made just one three-inning appearance at the big league level in 2021. He worked 35 innings of 5.14 ERA ball with Triple-A Syracuse.
  • The Diamondbacks are non-tendering reliever Taylor Clarke, reports Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (on Twitter). The 28-year-old has pitched with the D-Backs in each of the past three seasons. The left-hander worked to a 4.98 ERA over 43 1/3 innings this past season, showing solid control but posting a 20.1% strikeout rate that was about four percentage points below the league average mark for bullpen arms.
  • The Dodgers have non-tendered southpaw Andrew Vasquez, tweets Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic. Vasquez wasn’t eligible for arbitration, but Los Angeles decided to bump him off the 40-man roster without placing him on waivers. Acquired in a minor trade with the Twins, Vasquez made two appearances for the Dodgers in early September. The 28-year-old struck out a massive 37.4% of batters faced in Triple-A in 2021.
  • The Pirates have non-tendered right-hander Chad Kuhl, reports Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter link). A productive back-of-the-rotation arm at times, Kuhl has developed escalating control problems over the past couple seasons. The 29-year-old throws in the mid-90s and has posted decent strikeout numbers, but he’s coming off a 4.82 ERA/4.89 SIERA over 28 appearances (including 14 starts)
  • The Mets have non-tendered reliever Robert Gsellman, reports Tim Healey of Newsday (on Twitter). The right-hander has appeared with New York in each of the past six seasons, moving to the bullpen full-time in 2018. While Gsellman showed quite a bit of promise over seven starts as a rookie, he’s yet to find much consistent success in the years since. The 28-year-old did manage a solid 3.77 ERA with a 49.5% ground-ball rate over 28 2/3 innings in 2021, but he also missed a couple months because of a lat strain and only punched out 14.3% of batters faced.

Tender Deadline Signings: 11/30/21

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With the deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players looming tonight at 8pm ET — the MLBPA and MLB jointly agreed to move the deadline up a couple days due to the looming expiration of the collective bargaining agreement — we’ll likely see a slew of arbitration-eligible players signing one-year deals.

It’s commonplace for a large batch of players to sign deals in the hours leading up to the tender deadline. “Pre-tender” deals of this nature often fall shy of projections due to the fact that teams use the looming threat of a non-tender to enhance their leverage. Arbitration contracts at this juncture are often take-it-or-leave-it propositions, with the “leave it” end of that arrangement resulting in the player being cut loose. Given the widely expected lockout, there could be more incentive than usual for borderline non-tender candidates to take those offers rather than being cast out into free agency just hours before a transaction freeze is implemented.

As a reminder, arbitration contracts are not fully guaranteed. In a typical year, a team can cut a player on an arb contract at any point before the halfway point in Spring Training and only be responsible for 30 days’ termination pay (about one-sixth of the contract). Releasing a player in the second half of Spring Training bumps the termination pay to 45 days of his prorated salary.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for each team’s arbitration-eligible players last month, although for many of the players listed below, this isn’t so much avoiding arbitration as it is avoiding a non-tender. Here’s a look at today’s agreements…

  • The Yankees have agreed to deals with infielder Gio Urshela and right-hander Domingo German, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter links). Urshela will make $6.55MM, while German has agreed to a $1.75MM deal. Urshela has two seasons of control remaining; German is controllable for three years. Urshela is coming off a .267/.301/.419 showing while playing third base and shortstop. German tossed 98 1/3 innings of 4.58 ERA ball.
  • The Twins have signed three arbitration-eligible pitchers, per reports from Feinsand and Darren Wolfson of SKOR North (on Twitter). Right-hander Jharel Cotton signed for $700K, reliever Caleb Thielbar lands $1.3MM and reliever Tyler Duffey signs for $3.8MM. Thielbar and Duffey were both productive members of the Minnesota relief corps in 2021. Cotton was recently claimed off waivers from the Rangers.
  • The Giants have agreed to terms with outfielder Austin Slater on a $1.85MM deal, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). The 28-year-old (29 next month) appeared at all three spots on the grass while hitting .241/.320/.423 over 306 plate appearances in 2021.
  • Reliever Emilio Pagan and the Padres have agreed on a $2.3MM deal, reports Rosenthal (on Twitter). The 30-year-old worked 63 1/3 innings of 4.83 ERA/3.93 SIERA ball this past season.
  • The Diamondbacks agreed to a $2MM deal with left-hander Caleb Smith, reports Zach Buchanan of the Athletic (via Twitter). The 30-year-old posted a 4.83 ERA/4.68 SIERA across 113 2/3 innings in a swing capacity in 2021.

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Diamondbacks Acquire Jordan Luplow From Rays

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The Rays have traded outfielder/first baseman Jordan Luplow to the D-Backs for infield prospect Ronny Simon, the teams announced. Arizona designated right-hander Brett de Geus for assignment to open space on the 40-man roster. Tampa Bay’s 40-man roster now sits at 39.

Luplow is a five-year big league veteran, although he’s spent the bulk of his time in a platoon capacity. The right-handed hitter has never tallied more than 261 plate appearances in any given campaign, as he’s instead been leveraged heavily against lefty pitching. That’s a role in which he’s had great success, as Luplow has a massive .245/.360/.539 showing against southpaws. While that batting average isn’t eye-catching, Luplow’s combination of a huge 14.3% walk rate and 23 home runs in 378 plate appearances (essentially a little less than two-thirds of a full season’s workload) when holding the platoon advantage has made him an impact player in those situations.

Yet Luplow’s struggles against same-handed hurlers have kept him from being an everyday regular. He’s a career .205/.291/.369 hitter in 358 trips to the dish against righties. The 28-year-old actually had reverse splits in fairly limited playing time this past season, but it’s likely the D-Backs put more stock in his career-long track record of mashing against southpaws and will continue to use in a platoon capacity next season.

Luplow has between three and four years of major league service, so he remains controllable through 2024 via arbitration (barring changes to the service time structure in the next collective bargaining agreement). MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to receive a salary in the $1.5MM range next year. That’s certainly not an onerous sum, but it might be more than the cost-conscious Rays would have been willing to spend since they’re already fairly deep in outfield options.

The D-Backs’ outfield is far less settled, particularly if the club tries to trade David Peralta this winter. Young options like Pavin Smith, Stuart Fairchild, Jake McCarthy and Daulton Varsho could all get some run in 2022, but Fairchild’s the only right-handed hitter of that bunch. Adding Luplow gives the D-Backs an affordable, proven righty bat to help balance out the group.

In exchange, the D-Backs will send back a switch-hitting infield prospect. Simon spent most of the 2021 campaign with Low-A Visalia, where he hit .249/.343/.475 with fifteen homers and twelve steals across 349 plate appearances as a 21-year-old. Simon, who was acquired from the Cubs last November as the player to be named later in the teams’ Andrew Chafin deal, spent the bulk of his time in the middle infield, in addition to a handful of starts at third base. He’ll need to be added to the 40-man roster next offseason or be made available in the 2022 Rule 5 draft.

de Geus split the 2021 campaign between the Rangers and D-Backs. Selected out of the Dodgers’ organization in last year’s Rule 5, the 24-year-old worked 47 innings across 50 outings. He posted just a 7.56 ERA with worse than average strikeout and walk rates (17.2% and 10.5%, respectively). de Geus’ 7% swinging strike rate was the second-lowest mark among the 255 relievers with 20+ innings pitched, but he did rack up ground-balls at a strong 52.1% clip on the strength of his low-mid 90s sinker. Arizona will have a week to trade de Geus or try to pass him through waivers.

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