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Josh Donaldson Reportedly Sets Asking Price

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Weeks of bidding has reportedly driven the price tag for Josh Donaldson into the nine-figure range over a four-year term, with at least three clubs said to be sitting at that lofty price point. The end game may now be upon us.

The star third baseman has given teams what amounts to a firm and final asking price, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). Donaldson is “simply waiting for one of the clubs to hit his number” — around $110MM — per the report.

It seems, then, that the Braves, Nationals, Twins, Rangers, Dodgers, and any other lurkers need only place a single phone call to Donaldson’s reps to get the paperwork started. With the first three of those clubs reportedly already close to Donaldson’s asking price, it doesn’t seem like a huge stretch to bridge the gap. On the other hand, it may be that these teams feel they’ve already moved well out of their comfort zone for a 34-year-old player with a not-so-distant injury history, however talented he may be.

We have seen this sort of bidding situation emerge before. Sometimes, the player ends up picking from among multiple, roughly equivalent offers, as reportedly occurred a few years back with Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist. In other cases, a team leaps up to meet the asking price, as then-Blue Jays and now-Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos did to land Russell Martin — a situation he discussed last year.

It’s interesting now to see Anthopoulos weighing another tough call on an older free agent. He has twice acquired Donaldson, first via trade in Toronto and then through free agency in Atlanta, and has twice been rewarded for doing so. But while Anthopoulos made no shortage of big-money strikes during his time with the Jays, he has run quite a tight ship with the Braves. Most teams pressing to win end up going out on a limb at some point or another. No doubt Anthopoulos is presently weighing whether to do so with Donaldson or take on somewhat different risks by seeking an alternative path to the quality bat he wishes to acquire.

The calculus is much the same for the other teams involved. For the Nationals, the luxury tax line is fast approaching after a series of other moves. Adding Donaldson would probably mean going past it, though that seems to be a palatable outcome after dipping under the bar last year and going on to snag a World Series win. The Twins have ample flexibility after piecing together a cost-conscious series of rotation moves. It’s arguable that the Minnesota organization is most in need of a boost and best positioned to take on the long-term financial risks. But there are probably other ways the team could go to improve as well.

It could be that we’re seeing a bit of a staring contest here. Even if every organization knows that it controls its own destiny with regard to Donaldson — meet his ask and he’s yours — they’d each rather get him for less. There are some exceptionally talented alternatives in Kris Bryant and Nolan Arenado, but they’ll each require a sacrifice of talent and it’s far from clear how appealing the trade terms will be in both cases. Other possibilities, such as trading for Kyle Seager or signing Todd Frazier, rate as backup plans in comparison to the addition of Donaldson or one of his talent-level peers.

Latest On Josh Donaldson

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The Braves could lose third baseman Josh Donaldson in free agency, but they’re not going down without a fight. They’ve made the longtime star a four-year offer, David O’Brien of The Athletic tweets. They join the Twins and Nationals as teams known to have made recent four-year proposals for Donaldson. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com said Thursday that all three teams seem willing to go to the four-year, $100MM range. The Dodgers and the Rangers can’t be counted out of the race, either, per Feinsand.

This has become an especially fascinating trip through free agency for Donaldson, who MLBTR predicted would sign a three-year, $75MM contract when the proceedings began. However, with fellow third baseman Anthony Rendon and a slew of other standout performers already off the market, the 34-year-old Donaldson is now easily the game’s premier player without a contract. And he partly controls the third base market, as teams that lose out on the Donaldson sweepstakes might pivot to a trade for the Cubs’ Kris Bryant or the Rockies’ Nolan Arenado with no other studs left in free agency.

In the Braves’ case, they could have the prospect capital to trade for Bryant or Arenado, though it remains to be seen whether they’ll go that route. The seven-year, $234MM Arenado’s still owed could prove too rich for their blood. Donaldson shouldn’t cost anywhere near that much in cash, nor would the Braves have to cough up young players for him, and they already know he can thrive in their uniform. The one-time MVP was an integral member of a 2019 Atlanta roster that took home its second consecutive NL East title.

Latest On Braves’ Third Base Plans

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The Braves are unlikely to “aggressively” pursue a Nolan Arenado trade as long as incumbent starter Josh Donaldson remains on the market, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reported on Saturday citing unnamed sources (link).

Yesterday, our own Steve Adams explored in detail the many obstacles impeding a potential Atlanta-Arenado connection. First, there is the $234MM remaining on the third baseman’s contract; the addition of that sum would push Atlanta’s payroll into historic heights moving forward, and the club’s lack of serious engagement on Anthony Rendon could signal that the Braves aren’t true players at such a price tag. Then, there are the logistical issues of Arenado’s no-trade clause, his ability to opt-out after 2021, and the fact that his contract is set to run through his age-35 season. Donaldson, often positioned as being a bit “old” for a premium free-agent, would only be 37 at the end of his reportedly sought-after four-year deal. All of this, of course, is before considering any potential prospect capital Atlanta may have to surrender in acquiring the Colorado cornerstone.

Today’s note would seem to lend credence to the idea that the Braves may simply prefer spending payroll capital in acquiring Donaldson. In an offseason that has seen Donaldson court a four-year contract and Arenado’s name enter the rumor mill, the two superstar third baggers have become more or less linked. While Kris Bryant has also loomed as a speculative trade fit for teams in need at the hot corner, a few clubs have possibly spent the last several weeks weighing the relative merits of acquiring either Donaldson or Arenado. For the moment, this report indicates that Atlanta has a clear order of preference in terms of which scenario they prefer at third, with Morosi suggesting that the team won’t actively court Arenado unless Donaldson signs elsewhere—making the former a rather premium “plan B”.

Still, Morosi said only that the team will not “aggressively” pursue Arenado, so the door remains open, in theory. As far as potential trade partners for the Rockies superstar go, few clubs could match up with the Braves in terms of young prospect capital. When your team is built around Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies, youngsters like Austin Riley, Drew Waters, and Cristian Pache can seem like downright luxuries. In Riley’s case, in particular, it’s hard to ignore that Atlanta seems rather intent on filling the third base spot where he would figure to offer the most long-term value–even if that’s just personal conjecture.

Braves Have Gauged Asking Price On Nolan Arenado

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The Braves are among the teams that have inquired with the Rockies about a potential Nolan Arenado trade, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Braves fans should pump the brakes before running too wild with scenarios just yet, though. It stands to reason that the majority of contending clubs have at least gauged the asking price — front offices wouldn’t be doing their jobs if they didn’t at least explore even a fringe chance at adding a superstar-caliber player — and Morosi notes that there haven’t been any recent discussions between the two teams.

Frankly, it seems a stretch to imagine that the Braves would take on Arenado and the whopping seven years and $234MM remaining on his contract. Atlanta’s franchise-record Opening Day payroll came back in 2017 ($122.6MM), but they’re already projected to top that by $15MM or more. Add in a $35MM salary for Arenado in 2020, and the Braves would be shattering their previous spending thresholds by $50MM or more. Even if the Rockies were willing to include cash in the deal and/or take another contract back in exchange, adding Arenado would demolish payroll precedents in Atlanta.

Beyond that, Arenado is only about 10 months younger than Anthony Rendon, whose seven-year $245MM deal closely resembles what’s left on Arenado’s contract, and the Braves were never serious bidders for Rendon. Numerous reports have also indicated Atlanta’s reluctance to offer Josh Donaldson a fourth guaranteed year at a lower annual rate than either Arenado or Rendon is earning. It’s true that a four-year deal would run through Donaldson’s age-37 season, whereas Arenado is “only” signed through age 35, but the discrepancy is nonetheless notable.

When exploring any Arenado trade scenarios, it’s also worth emphasizing his full no-trade clause and the fact that an acquiring team will be wary of the opt-out provision in his contract. A perennial MVP candidate, Arenado can walk away from the final five years and $164MM of his contract and enter the open market. He’d be leaving a $32.8MM annual salary on the table to do so, but he’d be opting out in advance of only his age-31 season in 2022. It’s not out of the question that he could land a six- or even a seven-year deal in free agency if he continues on as an elite performer. And if he unexpectedly begins to decline sooner than that, an acquiring team would then be stuck paying nearly $33MM per season for said decline phase.

The Braves have a deep farm system that is rich in pitching prospects and position players alike, so they have the young talent to acquire virtually any player who is made available by another team. Atlanta would also have an obvious hole at third base if Donaldson signs elsewhere. Be that as it may, acquiring Arenado would require heretofore unseen levels of spending from ownership and would surely cost the Braves a sizable amount of young talent as well. If Donaldson departs, the Braves would (speculatively) make a very sensible trade partner for the Cubs and Kris Bryant, but it’s hard to see Arenado suiting up at SunTrust Park in 2020.

Remaining Needs: NL East

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Quite a few of MLBTR’s top 50 free agents have already signed, though there are still a host of players available on the open market. We’ve seen somewhat less action on the trade market, which still features a number of stars and other useful targets.

Those links provide lots of info on the supply side. But what about demand? We’ll run through each division to identify the biggest-remaining needs of each team.

Atlanta Braves [Offseason Outlook]

As they did last time around, the Braves sprinted out of the gates to address multiple key needs. But the club’s biggest question entering the winter — what to do about the departure of star third baseman Josh Donaldson — remains unanswered. It’s a good roster as-is, but the lineup would look a whole lot better with another big bat in the middle of it. If Donaldson can’t be retained, the Braves could look to the trade market at third base or pursue one of the remaining corner outfielders and re-shuffle their internal deck accordingly. The club seems quite settled otherwise but could still explore opportunistic rotation additions.

Miami Marlins [Offseason Outlook] 

The Fish have spent the winter plugging in one-year veterans and jettisoning unwanted relievers. The idea was to create a mix that will improve the results a bit in the near term while simultaneously aiding the development of and avoiding undue pressure on young players. Much of that work is already done, but the team is reportedly still looking to add a power-hitting corner outfielder who’d supplement (or supplant?) recent minor-league signee Matt Kemp. Perusing the roster, it seems there’s also room to pick up a veteran pitcher or two to join the bullpen or perhaps the rotation. That’d become a clear priority in the event of a trade involving Caleb Smith, Jose Urena, or some other pitcher. Presumably, the club will continue to explore trade opportunities involving those and other players while keeping an eye on the waiver wire.

New York Mets [Offseason Outlook]

Aided by a renegotiation of the Yoenis Cespedes contract, the Mets have placed a series of expensive (a combined $25MM+) single-season bets on high-variance veteran pitchers. Having picked up two new starting-capable hurlers, a pair of bullpen pieces, and a part-time center fielder in Jake Marisnick, the New York org has already ticked the boxes it needed to.

So … why doesn’t it feel like GM Brodie Van Wagenen is finished? With a forthcoming ownership transition underscoring the need to win now, the club’s top baseball exec can’t afford to leave any stones unturned in his sophomore offseason. Installing a top-flight center fielder — Starling Marte looks like the best bet — would be at the top of the list, but the club can also explore blockbuster scenarios at other positions. It’s possible to imagine further improvements to the bench and bullpen mix, too. The Mets will be most keen to utilize blocked first baseman Dominic Smith as a trade chip — whether to bring back prospects, shed the Jed Lowrie contract, or deliver a different MLB piece — but younger big leaguers J.D. Davis and Steven Matz could also conceivably be dangled.

Philadelphia Phillies [Offseason Outlook]

The Phils landed two of MLBTR’s top dozen free agents, and they did so for lesser commitments than were necessary to secure quite a few other top players. That’s a nice start, but hardly sufficient to stand out from the other three contending teams in this division. Improving the bullpen remains an unfulfilled priority. While the rotation no longer stands out as a problem, it’s susceptible of being bettered. And the position-player mix doesn’t feel quite finished. The Phillies could choose to utilize Adam Haseley in center field and Scott Kingery at third base. But the lineup would look better with a newly installed regular for at least one of those positions, freeing Kingery to function as a super-sub and reducing the team’s reliance upon the still-unproven Haseley. It’s a tough scene in free agency unless the club reimposes itself in the market for Josh Donaldson. Creative trade exploration seems advisable. The Phils also still must figure out what to do with Odubel Herrera, who’ll be returning from a suspension.

Washington Nationals [Offseason Outlook]

Having finally completed a summit attempt, the Nats face new challenges in a repeat bid. Not unlike the Braves and Phillies, the D.C. roster would look much better with Josh Donaldson added in at the hot corner. If they miss on Donaldson, the Nats could be forced into some difficult and high-stakes trade talks. There’s an opening at second base as well — especially if the club intends to utilize the recently re-signed Howie Kendrick at first base, which is partially dependent upon its decision with regard to Ryan Zimmerman — which creates both need and opportunity.

Youngster Carter Kieboom could be cast into a big role, but the organization probably prefers to see him force his way up rather than relying on him out of the gates. It’s possible to imagine the addition of multiple veteran infielders from a large remaining pool, with a plan to mix and match and adapt over the course of the season. Any of the team’s internally developed reserve players could be supplanted over the next few months. Ditto the holdover fifth-starter and middle-relief options. Another rotation piece (if only for camp competition) and one or more relievers (preferably including a legit setup option) also remain on the list of needs for president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo, who’s overseeing a huge amount of roster turnover while trying to recover from a (literal and figurative) championship hangover.

Exploring Braves' Secondary Options At Third

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A fourth guaranteed year has been said to be the lynchpin in any potential deal for third baseman Josh Donaldson this winter, leaving interested teams in a precarious spot as they play chicken with the veteran’s representatives. The Braves, in particular, could be in something of a no-mans-land if they miss out on Donaldson, as they would lose their incumbent starter and potentially see a league rival (Nationals, Dodgers) strengthen their lineup at the same time. As David O’Brien of The Athletic sees it, the team’s two recourses in the event of a Donaldson departure may be the exploration of trades for either Kris Bryant of the Cubs or Nolan Arenado of the Rockies—and neither of those options is entirely realistic in the writer’s eyes. For Bryant, his ongoing grievance with the Cubs adds a fair bit of uncertainty for any interested trade partner. While the Cubs are, as O’Brien puts it, “widely expected” to win that grievance hearing and maintain two years of control on Bryant, it’s not impossible that the tide could swing in Bryant’s favor and leave him with just one year left.

When it comes to Arenado, O’Brien seems merely skeptical that Atlanta would be willing to swallow a contract of that magnitude, considering that the $35MM annual salaries in Arenado’s deal would more than double the highest salary that Braves star Ronald Acuna will make in the final years of the eight-year, $100MM extension he signed in April. Then again, Donaldson has reportedly given the Braves the right of last refusal on any potential deal, so it may well be that Atlanta ends up viewing a four-year Donaldson deal as the most reasonable course of action. Given that Washington and Minnesota have reportedly made four-year offers already, this may be a case of a player waiting for his preferred team to blink.

Latest On Braves, Josh Donaldson

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Third baseman Josh Donaldson, the No. 1 free agent left on the board, continues to contemplate his future. The Nationals, Twins, Dodgers and Braves (with whom he thrived in 2019) look like the front-runners for his services. All things being equal, though, it appears Donaldson would prefer to stay in Atlanta. The “belief” is Donaldson’s camp has promised the Braves he’ll let them make a final offer before he signs anywhere else, David O’Brien of The Athletic reports (subscription link). The problem, as O’Brien notes, is that the Braves may not want to give Donaldson, 34, four guaranteed years. Meanwhile, Washington and Minnesota are reportedly open to doing so.

Nationals, Twins Reported To Be Most Aggressive On Josh Donaldson

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DEC. 19: It’s “believed” the Nationals and Twins are willing to go to four years for Donaldson, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). The Dodgers and Braves are still in the hunt, per Rosenthal, though he notes both teams could be hesitant to go to the four-year length to land Donaldson.

DEC. 16: Ever since they watched star third baseman Anthony Rendon depart, the Nationals have been rumored to be pressing hard for Josh Donaldson as a replacement. The club’s willingness to spend appears to be driving the market for Donaldson, an older but still outstanding player in his own right.

Whether or not there’s a formal offer on the table isn’t known. But the Nats are “aggressive” in their pursuit of Donaldson, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Indeed, the team is prepared to bid upwards of $90MM on a four-year term, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter).

MLBTR had predicted a $25MM average annual value for Donaldson, but anticipated he would only be able to secure that over a three-year guarantee. All indications are that Donaldson will have lengthier offers to consider, though it remains to be seen whether he will get to nine-figure territory.

Donaldson more than made good on his one-year deal last winter with the Braves, who are among the other pursuers. He blistered the ball (50.0% hard-hit rate, 92.9 mph average exit velocity), drew a ton of walks (15.2% BB rate), and played great defense (especially in the eyes of DRS, which had him at +15 runs). It was a compelling campaign from a player who has already proven over multiple years that he’s capable of elite production, though teams have no doubt not forgotten that Donaldson is now 34 years of age and dealt with major leg injuries in the prior two seasons.

Braves Notes: Ryu, MadBum

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The Braves weren’t willing to go beyond a three-year contract for Madison Bumgarner, and “it seems highly doubtful” they would go to four years for Hyun-Jin Ryu, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman writes.  Atlanta’s interest in Ryu is something of a new development, but Bowman feels it could be more due diligence on the Braves’ part than anything else, in case Ryu’s market shifts within the two- to three-year range.  Multiple teams have been linked to Ryu this offseason, though it remains unclear whether any club will be willing to stretch to four years for a hurler who will be 33 years old on Opening Day and possesses a lengthy injury history.

Culberson Turned Down Major League Offers

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  • Charlie Culberson had a couple of major league offers, but none significant enough to outweigh the appeal of returning to Atlanta, per MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. The fanbase in Atlanta is quite fond of Culberson, a dirtdog and Atlanta native who plays all over the diamond for manager Brian Snitker. The minor league deal enables the Braves to utilize Culberson’s 40-man roster spot, while incentives in the deal give Culberson similar earning potential to what he’d seen in other offers. Outside of occasional pop, Culberson doesn’t offer a ton with the bat, but he’s a decent baserunner and plays everywhere on the diamond except catcher and centerfield. If nothing else, seeing Culberson return in a Braves uniform would be a heartwarming moment for fans after a brutal injury ended Culberson’s 2019. On a failed bunt attempt at Nats Park, Culberson took a Fernando Rodney fastball to the face that led to a fractured cheekbone. 
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