Quick Hits: Opt-Outs, Hoover, Gutierrez, Arozarena, Braves
In a piece for the Hardball Times, Matt Swartz gives an in-depth explanation into the methodology he used when projecting the value of this offseason’s opt-out clauses here at MLBTR (links to Swartz’s valuations). As Swartz explains, the key to placing a dollar value on such a complex clause is in forecasting the extent to which the projections of a player’s value will change over time. As Swartz points out, whatever amount we currently project a player to be worth for the post-opt-out-date duration of his contract will assuredly change by the time that opt-out decision surfaces (especially in cases like David Price, where the opt-out is in three years). Setting a standard deviation of that expected value is crucial. Those that have a strong interest in the financial/economical side of the game and the math that goes into the financial decision-making of clubs will want to check out Swartz’s column in its entirety. Additionally, you can check out Swartz’s offseason appearance on the MLBTR Podcast (although the focus of that discussion was on his arbitration projections).
A few more notes from around the game…
- Right-hander J.J. Hoover will no longer serve as the Reds‘ closer, manager Bryan Price told reporters, including C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer. The Reds will mix and match, perhaps turning to options such as Tony Cingrani, Blake Wood and Caleb Cotham, though Price said that none of the three is ready to take over the closer’s role on a full-time basis. The Cincinnati bullpen has struggled across the board this season, with Jumbo Diaz already having been optioned to the minors and Keyvius Sampson finding himself designated for assignment earlier today. Hoover posted a strong 2.94 ERA in a setup role last season, though his modest strikeout rate, elevated walk rate and excellent fortune on balls in play all served as warning signs that he could struggle to repeat that success. Hoover won an arbitration hearing this winter, resulting in a $1.4MM salary.
- Ben Badler of Baseball America provides some updates on a pair of intriguing Cuban free agents: 20-year-old right-hander Vladimir Gutierrez and 21-year-old outfielder/infielder Randy Arozarena. Gutierrez’s most recent showcase increased interest around the league, and he’ll host another open showcase for clubs on May 29. Last month’s showing for scouts saw Gutierrez sit 92-94 mph with his fastball to complement a “hammer” curve that he was throwing around 80 mph. Gutierrez’s projectable frame has long led scouts to believe that he would grow into more velocity, Badler writes, and that appears to be the case now. Badler also recaps Arozarena’s recent performance in Mexico and notes that he’s likely to wait until July 2 to sign.
- The Braves have optioned right-hander Williams Perez to Triple-A Gwinnett, and his rotation spot could be filled by either Mike Foltynewicz or Aaron Blair, writes MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. Both right-handers have come over to the Braves in high-profile trades over the past 15 months, with Foltynewicz arriving by way of the Evan Gattis trade and Blair coming over from Arizona alongside Dansby Swanson and Ender Inciarte in the Shelby Miller blockbuster. Blair’s stock is currently higher after Foltynewicz struggled in his Braves debut last season, but Bowman notes that Atlanta could also elect to keep Blair in Triple-A to gain more experience and delay the start of service time/arbitration clock.
East Notes: Kelly, Ozuna, Harper, Inciarte, Sox
Red Sox right-hander Joe Kelly left tonight’s start in the first inning after walking two of the first four men he faced. As Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald writes, Kelly has been diagnosed with a right shoulder impingement, though little else beyond that point is known. Boston has already been without left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez, who had been expected to fill one of the spots at the back of the rotation but suffered a patellar subluxation during Spring Training. It remains to be seen if Kelly will require a DL stint, though it’s worth noting that Rodriguez is slated to throw 70 to 75 pitches in an extended Spring Training game this weekend, as Scott Lauber of ESPN Boston tweets, and he could progress to a rehab stint if all goes well in that outing.
More from Major League Baseball’s Eastern divisions…
- Marlins center fielder Marcell Ozuna drew trade interest from the Reds, Indians, Mariners, Rangers and Orioles this offseason, reports Jim Bowden of ESPN in listing 10 players that stand out as change-of-scenery candidates. The Marlins sought big-league-ready starting pitching to insert into their rotation in any deal, though, and when no one offered up a pitcher that met their desires, the club instead turned to the free-agent market and signed left-hander Wei-Yin Chen to a five-year deal (with an opt-out clause). Bowden also notes that both manager Don Mattingly and hitting coach Barry Bonds were interested in holding onto Ozuna, believing that they could help him rebound to his 2014 levels.
- Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post opines that the time is now for the Lerner family, who own the Nationals, to step up and make a record-setting extension offer to Bryce Harper. Boswell notes that in addition to proving himself on the field with last season’s dominant MVP campaign, Harper has proven to have matured as well, taking the initiative to bury the hatchet with Jonathan Papelbon even after Papelbon took the blame for last season’s dugout altercation with Harper. Boswell acknowledges that Harper and agent Scott Boras, of course, may not be amenable to a long-term deal. However, a “career contract” that shatters Giancarlo Stanton‘s record $325MM pact with the Marlins could potentially grab his attention. The Post scribe adds that the Nats right now have about as much leverage as they’ll ever have, as Harper’s current MLB earnings are still relatively minimal, the club is contending and he’s nearly three full seasons from free agency.
- The Braves could be without center fielder Ender Inciarte for another two weeks, writes David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal Constitution. Manager Fredi Gonzalez tells O’Brien that an “optimistic” timeline for Inciarte would be late April or early May, though Gonzalez says he’s not certain how much the club will push its newly acquired center fielder and lineup catalyst. Rookie Mallex Smith and veteran Drew Stubbs have been patrolling center field in Inciarte’s absence, though neither has hit much.
- WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford spoke to Red Sox manager John Farrell about his working relationship with new president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski. Farrell said that while he’s aware of some front offices that play a larger role in daily lineup decisions, Dombrowski isn’t involved at that level (nor did Alex Anthopoulos when Farrell managed in Toronto or Dombrowski’s predecessor, Ben Cherington, in Boston, he added). Farrell said that he doesn’t consider his relationship with Dombrowski to be drastically different than with his previous bosses, though he did note that his conversations with Dombrowski are in-person more often due to Dombrowski’s larger travel schedule.
Hector Olivera’s Administrative Leave Extended By Two Weeks
Major League Baseball has extended the paid administrative leave period of Braves outfielder Hector Olivera by two weeks to allow further investigation of his arrest for alleged domestic violence, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports (Twitter links). Olivera is facing charges in Virginia for misdemeanor assault and battery.
Olivera had been placed on the preliminary one-week leave period contemplated under the domestic violence policy by commissioner Rob Manfred, which was due to expire tomorrow. Rosenthal says that the policy contemplates extension of that time, with the union agreeing to the two week period in this case.
Manfred has issued decisions on two matters that arose under the domestic violence policy since its inception, handing Aroldis Chapman a 30-game suspension and finding no cause for discipline relating to Yasiel Puig. But he has yet to act on the recently-arising Olivera matter or the late 2015 arrest of Jose Reyes. The Rockies infielder has been on paid administrative leave since the start of spring camp, and his status remains in limbo — despite the fact that charges against him were dropped at the end of March because the alleged victim (his wife) declined to cooperate.
It bears stressing that neither conviction nor criminal charges are necessary for a violation of the policy to be found to have occurred; indeed, neither took place in Chapman’s case. The commissioner is vested with broad powers to investigate and punish offenders.
NL Notes: Heyward, Schwarber, Fried
Jason Heyward received a bit of a rough welcome back to St. Louis today, as he appeared there for the first time since leaving the Cardinals for the rival Cubs. But that didn’t seem to bother him; as he told reporters, including MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat (Twitter link): “If somebody boos me here, that means they weren’t happy to see me leave. I’m glad people weren’t happy to see me leave.” He’s already covered his decision to move on to Chicago in some detail, of course, but the occasion offered a chance to revisit the winter market once again. As Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports, Heyward ultimately spurned the Cards not out of any failure to see eye-to-eye on a contract, but because he had found another spot he preferred. “It came down to Chicago was really where I would like to be at the time,” Heyward said. “… I feel like [the Cardinals] had every intention of keeping me here. They said that. And they followed that through with their actions. It didn’t come down to contract. Whether it was the opt-out, whether it was the full no-trade (clause), or what have you — it came down to taking the opportunity to be where I wanted to be and for the first time in my life having the choice.”
Here are a few more notes from the National League:
- Cubs catcher/outfielder Kyle Schwarber is set for surgery this week on his injured left knee, Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com was among those to tweet. It’s already clear that he’ll miss the entire season with ACL and LCL tears, but a broader recovery timeline remains unknown and will presumably depend in part upon how the procedure goes.
- Young Braves lefty Max Fried is showing promise in his return from Tommy John surgery, Carroll Rogers Walton of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports. The 22-year-old was a highly-regarded prospect before running into elbow troubles, and remains a high-upside arm for an Atlanta organization that is full of them. He came over in the Justin Upton trade, but has only just returned to action. Fried was not only the high school teammate of Lucas Giolito — who is now the top-rated pitching prospect in baseball — but ended up being taken higher in the 2012 draft when the Nationals’ right-hander fell due to his own elbow troubles.
East Notes: deGrom, Red Sox, Braves
The Mets have placed righty Jacob deGrom on the MLB bereavement/family medical emergency list due to “complications” with his son Jaxon, according to various reporters, including the New York Daily News’ Kristie Ackert. Jaxon was born Monday. Mets manager Terry Collins did not offer specifics on deGrom’s son, but described the matter as a “real-life situation.” We at MLBTR wish deGrom and family the best. We’ll provide updates as the story develops.
Here’s more from the East divisions.
- The Red Sox optioned young backstop Blake Swihart to Triple-A in favor of the just-promoted Christian Vazquez. As Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald tweets, Swihart will continue to work as a catcher but will also see time in left field. Mastrodonato explained on this week’s MLBTR podcast that the Sox have always seen Swihart as having potential in other areas even as they’ve maintained hope that he can elevate his game behind the dish. There are implications here for his long-term outlook, as well as his possible usage at the big-league level later in the season.
- It’s been a rough season so far for the Braves, who only won their first game yesterday. But GM John Coppolella isn’t making excuses for his team’s poor start in an interview with MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. Coppolella points out that many teams that have enjoyed recent success went through tough times before emerging as winning teams. “I’m sure the fans of the Royals, Pirates, Cubs, Astros and Mets were frustrated a few years ago,” says Coppolella. “It took Kansas City nine years to reach the playoffs, and the Royals started out 3-14 in 2012, but they stayed patient and were ultimately rewarded.”
Minor MLB Transactions: 4/14/16
Here are Thursday’s minor moves and outright assignments from around the league…
- Right-handed reliever Jose Ramirez has cleared waivers and been sent outright to Triple-A Gwinnett by the Braves, reports Mark Bowman of MLB.com (Twitter link). The 26-year-old Ramirez was designated for assignment earlier in the week by Atlanta after an ugly start to the season. The hard-throwing righty was acquired from the Mariners in a minor offseason trade that sent Ryne Harper to Seattle in return. In addition to a hard fastball, Ramirez is said to have a plus changeup which, during his time as a Yankees prospect, Baseball America called “at least a 60” on the 20-80 scouting scale. However, his minor league numbers have never lined up with his raw stuff, and Ramirez has also struggled to remain healthy as well. He’ll try to refine his control at the Triple-A level for the time being.
Braves Release Michael Bourn
The Braves released Michael Bourn yesterday, tweets David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. The veteran center fielder had previously been designated for assignment just prior to Opening Day, and the Braves were unable to find a trade partner for him during the 10-day DFA window.
The outcome shouldn’t come as a great surprise, as Atlanta reportedly sought out trade partners for Bourn throughout the offseason but were never able to find a taker for the declining veteran, who is slated to earn $15MM this year in the final season of a four-year, $48MM contract originally signed with Cleveland. Bourn provided some value in the first season of that deal, but recurring hamstring issues in the second and third year of the deal (as well as a neck issue last season) chipped away at his productivity and also led to prolonged stints on the disabled list in 2014. Bourn has batted a combined .247/.312/.322 in the past two seasons, and his stolen base numbers have declined as well — both in terms of raw accumulation and his success rate. After averaging 51 steals per season from 2008-12, Bourn stole a combined 50 bases in 377 games from 2013-15.
Bourn will now be free to sign with any team, and any club that adds him to the fold would only be responsible for the pro-rated portion of the league minimum, with the Braves and Indians picking up the bill for the remainder of his that $15MM figure he’s owed this season. The D-backs, who lost A.J. Pollock for a yet-undetermined amount of time due to a fractured elbow, have been linked to Bourn since he was designated for assignment, as have the Cardinals.
Hector Olivera Arrested In Domestic Dispute, Charged With Misdemeanor Assault
4:09pm: Goldberg tweets that Olivera has been charged with one count of misdemeanor assault and battery.
11:50am: Goldberg tweets that Olivera will appear before a judge this afternoon between 3:00-4:00pm and is likely to be charged with misdemeanor assault and battery.
11:29am: The Braves have issued the following statement on the situation:
“We are extremely disappointed and troubled to learn of the allegations involving Hector Olivera. We will continue to gather information and will address this matter appropriately as we determine the facts. Major League Baseball has placed Oliver on Administrative Leave effective immediately.”
The Braves have recalled infielder Daniel Castro from Triple-A Gwinnett to fill Olivera’s spot on the roster.
10:18am: MLB has placed Olivera on administrative leave, and the commissioner’s office has begun to investigate his situation, Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post tweets.
9:50am: Braves outfielder Hector Olivera has been arrested in connection with a domestic dispute near Washington DC, Jeff Goldberg of ABC7 News writes. The Braves are in Washington playing a series against the Nationals. According to Goldberg, the victim dialed 911 early this morning and said she had been assaulted. She reportedly had bruises and was taken to the hospital. Olivera was arrested but has not yet been charged.
MLB has lately dealt with a number of high-profile domestic violence issues surrounding players like Aroldis Chapman and Jose Reyes. Olivera’s situation could end up adding another name to that list. Chapman received a 30-game suspension from the Commissioner’s Office despite not being arrested or have charges filed against him, so the situation with Olivera has the potential to lead to considerably stronger discipline.
Olivera signed with the Dodgers last year as a high-profile free agent from Cuba, receiving a $62.5MM contract that continues through 2020. The Dodgers sent him to Atlanta in a three-team trade last July. He is currently the Braves’ starting left fielder.
NL East Notes: Dunn, deGrom, Winkler, Nationals
Marlins left-hander Mike Dunn has had a setback in his recovery from tightness in his left forearm, writes MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro. The Marlins are bracing themselves to be without Dunn — their most reliable reliever across the past five seasons — for longer than they initially expected. “He didn’t come out very good from his ‘[bullpen session],” manager Don Mattingly said. “He felt a little grab in there again. So, we’re going to slow him down, and I think he’s going to talk with [team physician Dr. Lee Kaplan] again and see where it goes.” As Frisaro writes, the initial MRI on Dunn didn’t reveal any structural damage, but there’s no timetable for his return at the moment until he has the injury reexamined. Dunn, 31 in May, has posted a 3.62 ERA with 10.1 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9 in 285 2/3 innings with the Marlins. He’s set to become a free agent at season’s end.
More from the NL East…
- The Mets are bracing for the possibility that Jacob deGrom will require a stint on the disabled list, writes MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo. That possibility, DiComo writes, is the reason that New York didn’t place deGrom on the paternity list for the birth of his son. Had deGrom gone on the paternity list, the Mets would’ve given up the ability to backdate a DL stint to the date of his most recent start. As such, if deGrom is placed on the disabled list, the move could be made retroactive to April 9.
- Braves right-hander Daniel Winkler, who fractured his right elbow over the weekend, will see Dr. James Andrews tomorrow, tweets Mark Bowman of MLB.com. Bowman notes that the early indication is that Winkler’s surgically repaired ulnar collateral ligament was not damaged in the injury, though he’ll meet with the renowned Dr. Andrews to ascertain that fact. Even if his UCL is intact, Winkler seems likely to be facing another prolonged absence in the wake of the new injury.
- The Nationals‘ hiring of Davey Lopes has already begun to pay dividends, writes James Wagner of the Washington Post. New manager Dusty Baker came to the Nats with the goal of making the club more aggressive on the basepaths and improving the club’s stolen base numbers and overall running efficiency. Lopes has already been working with Bryce Harper to improve his stolen base acumen in an effort to punish opponents who pitch around him. “There’s something you can take advantage of [every opponent],” Baker tells Wagner. “And Davey Lopes is the best at picking that up. He’s the best. Davey sees things that very few people see [in] the young players. He’s been around a long time. He was one of the best at his craft when he was playing. So coaching does come into play.”
Minor MLB Transactions: 4/12/16
Here are the day’s outright assignments and minor moves from around the league…
- The Braves formally announced today that they have selected the contract of right-hander Jhoulys Chacin, who will start tonight’s game. Right-hander Joel De La Cruz was optioned to Triple-A to clear room on the 25-man roster, while left-hander Jesse Biddle was transferred to the 60-day disabled list in order to clear a spot on the 40-man roster. Chacin, 28, was a mainstay in the Rockies rotation from 2010-14, but he was released by Colorado last spring and ultimately signed minors deals with the Indians and D-backs. Chacin logged a 3.22 ERA in 128 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level and then had a nice run with the Diamondbacks’ big league club late in the year, turning in a 3.38 ERA in 26 2/3 innings.
- Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel tweets that right-hander Ariel Pena has accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A from the Brewers after being designated for assignment last week. Pena, who had been outrighted once before, had the right to reject the assignment in favor of free agency but chose to remain in the Brewers organization. The Brewers originally acquired Pena along with Johnny Hellweg and Jean Segura in the trade that sent Zack Greinke to the Angels. The Brewers also announced (on Twitter) that they’ve released three players from their Dominican Summer League affiliate.