Latest On Tanner Scott’s Market
Tanner Scott remains unsigned as the top reliever in a slow-moving free agent class. The hard-throwing southpaw and right-hander Jeff Hoffman have been the best bullpen arms available all winter.
There hasn’t been much recent chatter on Scott, though that doesn’t appear to reflect a quiet market. Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports that the All-Star closer is expected to receive interest from multiple big-market teams. Cotillo’s MassLive colleague Sean McAdam indicates that Scott could receive something like $20MM annually on what would surely be a multi-year contract.
The Dodgers have been most frequently linked to Scott. He was reportedly on the Yankees’ radar before they orchestrated the Devin Williams trade. The Athletic’s David O’Brien adds another team to the mix, reporting that the Braves have done background work on Scott. Cotillo indicates that the Red Sox are exploring the top of the reliever market generally, though that report doesn’t firmly link them to Scott in particular.
If Scott were to hit the $20MM AAV marker, he’d join rare company. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, there are only two relievers who have signed for that amount — and those each come with asterisks. Nick Martinez accepted a $21.05MM qualifying offer from the Reds this offseason. That’s a one-year commitment and Martinez is capable of starting. The only reliever to land $20MM+ on a long-term deal is Edwin Díaz. He signed a five-year, $102MM extension with the Mets two seasons ago. That came with upwards of $26MM in deferred money, though, dropping the net present value closer to $93MM. By that measure, Díaz’s true average annual value could be in the $18-19MM range.
By measure of NPV, Josh Hader set a new standard for reliever contracts with his five-year, $95MM term last winter. Hader has a longer track record than Scott, so it’d be a surprise if the latter got five years and an AAV around $20MM. A four-year deal should be in play, though. MLBTR predicted Scott for a four-year, $56MM deal at the beginning of the offseason. McAdam’s report may indicate that the bidding has pushed beyond that number.
Scott brings rare velocity from the left side. He averaged 97 MPH on his four-seamer and sat in the 88-89 range with his slider. Scott has topped 70 innings with an earned run average below 2.50 in consecutive seasons. He fired 72 innings of 1.75 ERA ball with a 28.2% strikeout rate between the Marlins and Padres last year. Scott added 4 1/3 scoreless frames with seven strikeouts in October, including a handful of punchouts of Shohei Ohtani during their Division Series matchup with the Dodgers.
The price tag complicates the Braves’ pursuit but doesn’t necessarily rule them out. Atlanta’s only free agent activity this offseason has been a trio of low-cost split contracts. They’ve rearranged the Aaron Bummer and Reynaldo López contracts and offloaded the final two years of the Jorge Soler deal. Whether that’s to reallocate payroll space to a major acquisition or a reflection that they’re simply working with a tight budget remains to be seen.
President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos said at the Winter Meetings that the Braves weren’t wedded to staying below the luxury tax threshold. Atlanta has paid the tax in consecutive seasons. RosterResource estimates their CBT number for next season around $218MM. That puts them $25MM shy of the $241MM base threshold. They could sign Scott and remain narrowly below the tax line. Atlanta could lose A.J. Minter to free agency. They’ll be without Joe Jiménez for most or all of next season. Bummer, Pierce Johnson and Dylan Lee project as the top setup arms in front of closer Raisel Iglesias.
Brewers Re-Sign Jake Bauers To Minor League Deal
The Brewers brought first baseman/corner outfielder Jake Bauers back on a minor league contract this afternoon, the team announced. He’ll be in major league camp as a non-roster invitee.
Bauers spent the entire ’24 season in Milwaukee. The Brewers acquired the lefty hitter from the Yankees early last offseason. Bauers took 346 plate appearances across 116 regular season games. He hit .199/.301/.361 with 12 longballs and 13 stolen bases. Bauers walked at a strong 11.3% clip but fanned 34.1% of the time.
That has essentially been the story of his major league career. Bauers carries a .208/.302/.361 batting line in more than 1700 trips to the plate between five teams. He has shown league average power with good walk rates but too many strikeouts. He grades as an average defender at first base with subpar marks on the outfield grass.
While Bauers didn’t have a great regular season, he briefly looked to have cemented himself in franchise lore. In the decisive third game of Milwaukee’s Wild Card series with the Mets, Bauers came up as a pinch-hitter in a scoreless game in the seventh inning. He crushed a no-doubt home run off José Buttó to put Milwaukee ahead. That looked as if it might be a game winner until Pete Alonso’s ninth-inning heroics carried the Mets to victory.
That swing wasn’t enough to keep Milwaukee from running Bauers through outright waivers at the end of the season. He elected free agency but circles back for a second season with the Brew Crew. Rhys Hoskins is back as Milwaukee’s projected starter at first base. Bauers could again compete for a left-handed bench or platoon role.
Reds Designate Roansy Contreras For Assignment
The Reds announced they’ve designated Roansy Contreras for assignment. The move opens the necessary 40-man roster spot for Gavin Lux, whose acquisition from the Dodgers is now official.
Contreras hasn’t spent much time with the Reds. Cincinnati grabbed him off waivers from the Rangers a couple weeks ago. Texas had just claimed him from the Angels a month before that. The 25-year-old righty seems ticketed for the waiver wire for a third time in as many months.
Once one of the game’s better pitching prospects, Contreras was a key piece of the package that the Yankees sent to the Pirates for Jameson Taillon. He had a decent debut season with the Bucs in 2022, turning in a 3.79 ERA across 95 innings. He looked like a long-term rotation piece at the time, but his production has dropped sharply over the last two seasons.
Contreras struggled to an ERA near 7.00 across 68 1/3 MLB frames in 2023. He exhausted his last minor league option that year. The Pirates carried him in the season-opening bullpen in ’24. He pitched 12 times in medium-leverage spots before the Bucs took him off the roster. They dealt him to the Angels for cash in May. Contreras played out the year with the Halos in a long relief role, posting a 4.33 ERA with subpar peripherals in 37 appearances.
Since the start of the 2023 season, Contreras owns a 5.47 earned run average over 136 2/3 innings. His 18.5% strikeout percentage and 10.5% walk rate are worse than the respective MLB averages, as is his 1.4 home runs allowed per nine. The performance and the inability to send him to the minors without putting him on waivers could lead to him continuing to bounce around the league. Contreras has intrigued a few teams as a depth arm, as he sits around 95 MPH with his four-seam fastball and throws six different pitches.
Reds Acquire Gavin Lux
The Dodgers and Reds have announced a trade sending Gavin Lux to Cincinnati for outfield prospect Mike Sirota and the Reds’ Competitive Balance Round A selection. The competitive balance pick — the only kind of draft choice that can be traded — lands at 37th overall next summer.
L.A. general manager Brandon Gomes had downplayed the possibility of trading Lux late last week, but it seems the Dodgers intend to play free agent pickup Hyeseong Kim at second base. Lux is going into his age-27 season. The left-handed hitting infielder was a first-round pick in 2016 and had emerged as one of the top prospects in baseball by the time he was promoted at the end of the ’19 season. Lux has been a solid big leaguer but not the kind of star that many evaluators had hoped.
The Dodgers didn’t give him consistent big league run until 2021. He struggled offensively that season, hitting .242/.328/.364 through 102 games. His bat took a step forward the following year, as he hit .276/.346/.399 through 471 trips to the plate. Lux looked like the starting shortstop going into 2023, but he tore his right ACL during Spring Training and wound up missing the entire season.
Lux returned from injury last year. He was healthy in Spring Training and expected to start at shortstop. A series of throwing errors during exhibition play called that into question. By the middle of Spring Training, Los Angeles announced that Lux would slide back to second base while Mookie Betts tried his hand at shortstop. Lux had started his professional career on the left side of the infield but encountered throwing accuracy issues in the minors as well.
The start of the season did not go well. Lux was the weakest link in the L.A. lineup in the first half. He carried a .213/.267/.295 batting line into the All-Star Break. The Dodgers stuck with him and were rewarded with a huge showing down the stretch. Lux hit .304/.391/.508 in 61 games during the second half. The end results were exactly league average. Lux finished the year with a .251/.320/.383 showing in 487 plate appearances. His 24 doubles and 10 home runs were both personal highs. Lux’s postseason numbers were unimpressive, though he did drive in the tying run in the eighth inning of what proved to be the decisive Game 5 victory in the World Series.
That will go down as Lux’s final at-bat in a Dodger uniform. He entered the offseason as the projected starter at second base. The Dodgers somewhat surprisingly signed Kim, who’s coming off a .326/.383/.458 showing in his final season in South Korea, to a three-year deal last week. That only guaranteed $12.5MM, a modest sum that aligned with most scouting reports that suggested Kim projected as a utility player in MLB. The Dodgers initially indicated they felt the same way, but it seems that was about not publicly telegraphing that they were shopping Lux.
Betts is expected to return to shortstop after finishing last season in the outfield. Kim looks like the starting second baseman with Miguel Rojas and Chris Taylor behind them in utility roles. Tommy Edman can play the middle infield but projects as the starting center fielder. It would have been difficult to carry each of Lux, Kim, Rojas and Taylor on the 26-man roster. The Dodgers could’ve opened a spot by designating Taylor for assignment, but they preferred to cash Lux in for future value. It’s a surprising decision for a team that hopes to repeat as World Series winners. The Dodgers apparently feel that the downgrade from Lux to Kim won’t be substantial.
The Reds may not have everyday at-bats to offer either. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale suggests Lux is likely to assume a utility role at Great American Ball Park. Cincinnati has Elly De La Cruz at shortstop and will welcome Matt McLain back at second base. Jeimer Candelario and Christian Encarnacion-Strand, each of whom is coming off a down year, project as the corner infield tandem. Lux has only started one major league game at third base, where his throwing accuracy could be problematic. He saw limited action in left and center field between 2021-22.
If Cincinnati feels Lux could handle third base, that’d be his clearest path to playing time. They could also use Lux at second base and slide McLain to the hot corner. It’s another infield acquisition for the Reds, whose seeming surplus has become a question mark over the past 12 months. They’ve traded away Jonathan India. Candelario and Encarnacion-Strand are rebound hopefuls. Noelvi Marte missed half the season after a failed performance-enhancing drug test and didn’t play well when he returned. McLain is coming back after losing all of 2024 to shoulder surgery. Among Cincinnati’s talented infield group, only De La Cruz took a step forward last season.
Lux has between four and five years of major league service. He’s under arbitration control for two seasons. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a modest $2.7MM salary. The Yankees and Mariners were reportedly also in contact with the Dodgers regarding Lux. They’ll need to turn elsewhere to address their respective infields.
Sirota, 21, was Cincinnati’s third-round pick last summer. He’s a righty-hitting outfielder who hit .298/.473/.513 against mid-major competition during his draft year at Northeastern. Baseball America’s draft report praised his speed and potential for above-average defense in center field. Sirota’s 6’3″ frame offers some physical projection, but BA writes that his bat path plays more for low-angle contact than power.
The Reds didn’t get Sirota into any game action after the draft. He spent the final two months of the season at the team’s Arizona complex. The Dodgers’ amateur scouting department has had its eye on him for a while, though. Los Angeles drafted him in the 16th round out of high school in 2021. It was clear by that point that Sirota — whom BA had ranked among the top 200 prospects in that year’s class — was likely headed to Northeastern, but teams frequently take late-round fliers on talented high schoolers in case a deal with a higher draftee falls through and leaves unexpected space in the team’s bonus pool.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Reds were finalizing a deal for Lux. Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic confirmed a Lux trade was in place. KPRC 2’s Ari Alexander was first with Sirota and the Competitive Balance pick heading back to Los Angeles. Image courtesy of Imagn.
Orioles Sign Charlie Morton
The Orioles announced they’ve signed Charlie Morton to a one-year deal. It’s reportedly a $15MM guarantee for the Wasserman client. Baltimore designated catcher René Pinto for assignment to open a 40-man roster spot.
Morton, who turned 41 in November, joins the sixth team of his career in what’ll be his 18th MLB season. The two-time All-Star has spent the past four seasons with the Braves, where he combined for a 3.87 ERA over 124 starts. While Morton’s production has dipped slightly over the past couple years, he has avoided the kind of dramatic drop-off one might expect from a pitcher in his 40s.
The righty took the ball 30 times and worked to a 4.19 earned run average across 165 1/3 innings last year. He reached 30 starts and surpassed 160 frames in all four seasons during his late-career run in Atlanta. Morton struck out 23.8% of opposing hitters against a slightly elevated 9.3% walk rate. The strikeout rate was his lowest since his 2017 breakout in Houston but remained a couple points above the league average for starting pitchers.
Morton hasn’t lost much velocity despite his age. His fastball averaged 94 MPH last year, a tick below where it had been for the prior three seasons. His primary offering, his curveball, landed at its customary 81.5 MPH on average. Morton continues to generate elite spin and generally strong results against the breaking pitch. Opponents hit .200 against the curveball last season.
In aggregate, Morton’s 2024 production was that of a solid fourth starter. He ran into some trouble in the second half, though. Morton allowed 4.37 earned runs per nine while giving up a lofty .279/.357/.469 batting line after the All-Star Break. Morton rebounded in September following a shaky August, while his strikeout and walk marks held steady throughout the season.
Atlanta, seemingly working with strict budget limits, never appeared interested in keeping Morton for a fifth season. There’s annual speculation that he could retire, but it became clear last month that he planned to return for another year. The Athletic’s David O’Brien has written that Morton wanted to sign with a team that played Spring Training near his Bradenton, Florida home. The Orioles qualify. Their complex is in Sarasota. Morton won’t be as close to home as he’d been in Georgia once the regular season begins, but that’s evidently less of a concern than the Spring Training geography.
Morton is Baltimore’s second veteran rotation addition of the winter. His signing comes three weeks after the O’s inked 35-year-old Japanese star Tomoyuki Sugano to a one-year, $13MM contract. Both pitchers project as durable back-end starters at this stage of their careers. The Orioles needed to add to their rotation behind Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez. Sugano and Morton each make sense in isolation, but neither brings anywhere near the upside they lost when Corbin Burnes walked.
The offseason is halfway complete. Baltimore has been tied to Jack Flaherty, the best unsigned starter. They’re an obvious fit for potential trade candidates like Luis Castillo and Dylan Cease. There’s no guarantee this is their final move. Through the offseason’s first couple months, however, they’ve shied away from making the kind of splash that many in the fanbase anticipated under new owner David Rubenstein. In addition to the rotation acquisitions, they signed outfielder Tyler O’Neill to a three-year deal that guaranteed just under $50MM and brought in Gary Sánchez as a backup catcher/designated hitter on an $8.5MM signing.
Eflin, Rodriguez, Morton and Sugano form the top four in Brandon Hyde’s rotation for now. Dean Kremer projects as the fifth starter. Albert Suárez, Trevor Rogers, and younger pitchers Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott are behind them. They’re building decent depth but arguably still need an impact arm to slot at the top of the staff.
Pinto, 28, was claimed off waivers from the Rays at the start of the offseason. He’s out of options and can’t be sent to Triple-A without clearing waivers. His spot on the 40-man roster seemed tenuous after the Sánchez pickup. Baltimore will have five days to trade him or put him back on the waiver wire. Pinto hit .231/.263/.404 in 82 major league games with Tampa Bay between 2022-24.
Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported the $15MM salary. Image courtesy of Imagn.
Latest On Jack Flaherty
Jack Flaherty is the top unsigned starter as the calendar flips to 2025. While there haven’t been a ton of teams publicly linked to the right-hander, Flaherty was tied to the Orioles before their agreement with Charlie Morton this evening.
MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand wrote this afternoon that the Blue Jays, Cubs, Giants and Tigers are among the teams that “remain in the mix.” Feinsand also listed the Orioles as a suitor, though his column was published before the Morton signing. It’s not clear if that’ll take them out of the running. In an appearance on Foul Territory yesterday, Baltimore Baseball’s Rich Dubroff suggested the O’s could be reluctant to meet Flaherty’s asking price.
Will Sammon and Katie Woo of The Athletic wrote earlier this week that Flaherty was believed to be seeking a deal of at least five years. That’d probably be the necessary term if he’s to get into nine figures. MLBTR predicted Flaherty for five years and $115MM at the beginning of the offseason. The market has been favorable to starting pitching, but Flaherty has yet to find a deal to his liking.
He’s coming off an excellent season. Flaherty combined for a 3.17 ERA while striking out nearly 30% of batters faced between the Tigers and Dodgers. He walked fewer than 6% of opponents while getting swinging strikes at a strong 13.3% clip. It was easily his best season since his dominant finish to the 2019 campaign when he was a member of the Cardinals. Flaherty battled injuries between 2020-22 and struggled in ’23, when he allowed an ERA just below 5.00 across 29 appearances.
The inconsistency is a concern, as is Flaherty’s injury history. He’s been generally durable over the past two seasons, but the Yankees reportedly nixed a deadline trade because of concerns about his back. Flaherty went to the Dodgers instead and held up for the rest of the season. He didn’t pitch well in the postseason, but there’s no indication he wasn’t at full health during L.A.’s World Series run.
Flaherty’s fantastic regular season gives him a solid case for five years. He just turned 29 and isn’t attached to a qualifying offer because he was traded midseason. There hasn’t been a four-year free agent deal for a starting pitcher this offseason. Max Fried and Corbin Burnes got six-plus years, while Blake Snell signed for five. Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, Nathan Eovaldi and Yusei Kikuchi all signed three-year deals. Flaherty should beat that group and presumably expects to top the four years and $80MM which Eduardo Rodriguez received last winter.
That’s without many clearly interested teams, however. Baltimore has added Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano on one-year deals, suggesting they may be reluctant to make a significant pitching investment. The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma wrote at the Winter Meetings that while the Cubs had some interest in Flaherty, they were hesitant to meet an elevated asking price.
San Francisco didn’t make as strong a push as many expected for Burnes. President of baseball operations Buster Posey recently suggested to Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic that the club was optimistic about its young starters and searching for offensive help. The Tigers might be in a similar spot. They’ve been tied to Alex Bregman and Anthony Santander recently. Detroit GM Jeff Greenberg indicated after they signed Alex Cobb at the Winter Meetings that they weren’t likely to be big factors in the rotation market aside from a long shot push for Roki Sasaki (link via Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press). Toronto has been linked to essentially every free agent but remains in the Bregman/Santander markets and could prioritize free agency’s top relievers.
Dodgers Still Planning To Use Betts-Lux Middle Infield
The Dodgers added to their middle infield with the signing of KBO second Hyeseong Kim to a three-year contract. That fueled speculation about Los Angeles dealing one of their other infielders.
General manager Brandon Gomes downplayed the notion that adding Kim will spur another trade. “I think it’s more that we’re adding a really talented player, and [then we’ll] see where things play out,” Gomes told reporters (including Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times). “It’s helpful to have really strong pieces at a lot of different areas. So that’s how we’re viewing it right now.” He added that the team’s “mindset” remains a middle infield pairing of Mookie Betts at shortstop and Gavin Lux at second base.
Before Gomes’ media session, Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic reported that the Dodgers view Kim as a utility player. Los Angeles values defensive flexibility as much as any team. The 25-year-old Kim has primarily been a second baseman but has experience in left field and at both positions on the left side of the infield. L.A. already has Miguel Rojas and Chris Taylor as veteran utility options. Tommy Edman can also play either middle infield spot but is expected to be the everyday center fielder between Michael Conforto and Teoscar Hernández. Assuming a four-man bench, Kim and backup catcher Austin Barnes would round out the position player group. That’d push outfielders Andy Pages and James Outman, each of whom has a minor league option left, to Triple-A if everyone’s healthy.
Rojas underwent postseason hernia surgery, but there’s no indication that’ll keep him from participating in Spring Training. Taylor is coming off a .202/.298/.300 showing. The organization clearly places a lot of emphasis on his versatility and clubhouse presence. L.A. designated former top prospect Diego Cartaya for assignment as the corresponding move for Kim. That suggests the Dodgers see a path to carrying all of Kim, Rojas and Taylor on the roster.
There could be an element of gamesmanship to Gomes’ comments. It wouldn’t do the team much good to proclaim they’re trying to deal a middle infielder even if they were. That said, it’s not surprising that the Dodgers don’t feel Lux’s situation changes much after the Kim signing. The latter’s three-year, $12.5MM guarantee is a modest investment that suggests MLB teams generally viewed him as a utility player rather than a regular.
Lux hit .251/.320/.383 with 10 homers while playing slightly below-average defense in more than 1000 innings at second base last year. He had a fantastic second half, hitting .304 with seven homers in 61 games after the All-Star Break. He has been a league average hitter over nearly 1500 MLB plate appearances. Evaluators question how much Kim will bring to the table offensively. It’d be risky for the Dodgers to deal Lux and expect Kim to handle the keystone.
The Dodgers also don’t have glaring weaknesses that they need to address via trade. There’s little reason to deal Lux for prospects. The Dodgers could open the season with a rotation including Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. They’re expected to bring Clayton Kershaw back. They might sign Roki Sasaki. Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May are returning from injury. The bullpen is the relative weak point, but Ardaya writes in a separate column at The Athletic that the team prefers to address that through free agency rather than trade.
Yankees, Andrew Velazquez Agree To Minor League Deal
The Yankees have brought back infielder Andrew Velazquez on a minor league contract with a non-roster Spring Training invite, reports Jack Curry of the YES Network. The CAA client is a Bronx native who appeared for his hometown team in 2021.
Velazquez, 30, has played for five teams over a big league career spanning parts of six seasons. Nearly half his playing time came as a member of the Angels in 2023. Velazquez appeared in a personal-high 125 contests that year. He hit .196 with a .236 on-base percentage but played great defense in more than 900 shortstop innings. His defensive grades slipped the following year and the Angels waived him that September.
Prior to his nearly two years in Orange County, he’d made brief appearances with the Rays, Cleveland, Orioles and Yankees. Velazquez hit .224 over 28 games in pinstripes four years ago. He played all of last season in Triple-A with the Braves after signing an offseason minor league contract. While he hit 16 homers and stole 33 bases, his overall offense was mediocre. Velazquez struck out nearly a third of the time while hitting .242/.298/.394 through 473 plate appearances with Atlanta’s highest affiliate.
The switch-hitting Velazquez is a career .189/.244/.293 hitter in 624 big league plate appearances. His glove is the selling point. He has logged nearly 1500 major league innings at shortstop. Velazquez played both middle infield positions and all three outfield spots in Triple-A last year. He’ll likely begin next season at Scranton/Wilkes-Barre as a versatile depth option.
Dodgers Designate Diego Cartaya For Assignment
The Dodgers designated former top catching prospect Diego Cartaya for assignment. The move opens a 40-man roster spot for Hyeseong Kim, whose three-year deal is official.
Cartaya has yet to play in the major leagues, but he’s a bigger name than most players who find themselves in DFA limbo. The Venezuela native was one of the best talents in his amateur signing class and inked a $2.5MM bonus in 2018. He performed well in the low minors and shot to the top of the Dodger system. Baseball America ranked him as L.A.’s #1 prospect entering both the 2022 and ’23 campaigns. He was among BA’s 25 best minor league talents in both years.
The Dodgers added Cartaya to their 40-man roster after the 2022 season. There was no chance they’d leave him unprotected in the Rule 5 draft. Cartaya’s long-term future on a team that already rostered Will Smith was debatable, but he at least seemed like a potential key trade chip. That he has been DFA just over two years later demonstrates how far his stock has fallen.
Cartaya’s bat has stalled in the upper minors. He hit .189 with a 29% strikeout rate over 93 Double-A games in 2023. While that knocked him off Top 100 lists, he still ranked eighth among Dodger prospects at Baseball America going into last season. Cartaya improved offensively in his second shot at Double-A, where he hit .236/.354/.379 over 45 contests. He couldn’t maintain that after being promoted to Triple-A Oklahoma City in the middle of June.
The 23-year-old hit .208/.293/.350 while striking out at a 27.4% clip across 49 games in the Pacific Coast League. He had the second-lowest batting average and fifth-lowest OBP among PCL hitters with at least 200 plate appearances. Cartaya had been surpassed by Dalton Rushing as the top catching prospect in the system, while Smith signed a contract extension that’ll keep him in Los Angeles through 2033.
After Cartaya struggled through consecutive down seasons, the Dodgers are willing to move on. They’ll have five days to trade him or place him on waivers. Another team will almost certainly roll the dice, likely via trade that’d allow them to jump the waiver order.
Cartaya draws praise for his defensive acumen and has drawn plenty of walks even as his numbers have fallen in the high minors. While the swing-and-miss means he’s unlikely to become a franchise catcher, there are probably teams that feel he’ll be a capable backup or a potential low-end regular. Cartaya still has a minor league option remaining. An acquiring team would be able to send him to Triple-A for another season.
Dodgers Re-Sign Teoscar Hernandez
The Dodgers have brought Teoscar Hernández back on a three-year deal. The Republik Sports client is reportedly guaranteed $66MM, including a $23MM signing bonus. There is $23.5MM in deferred money, while the deal includes a $15MM team option (or a $6.5MM buyout) for the 2028 season. He’ll receive a $10MM salary next season, $7.5MM of which is deferred. Another $8MM of his respective $12MM and $14.5MM salaries for 2026 and ’27 are also deferred. The deferrals reportedly reduce the contract’s net present value to roughly $58.1MM.
Hernández, 32, gets the three-year deal he’d been seeking. The slugger had called returning to the Dodgers a priority after a huge first season with the team. Hernández slashed .272/.339/.501 with 33 homers across 652 plate appearances. He carried that strong production into the postseason, hitting three longballs with a .250/.352/.417 slash over 16 games to help the Dodgers secure their second championship in five years.
This was the ideal outcome for a player on a pillow contract. Hernández had reached free agency last winter on the heels of a middling season in Seattle. He had turned in a .258/.305/.435 slash over 678 plate appearances as a Mariner. As a result, Hernández didn’t find the lucrative long-term offer he’d been seeking. While the Red Sox offered him a two-year deal that would’ve come with a $28MM guarantee, he signed for one season on a deferred $23.5MM salary with the goal of reestablishing his market value.
It couldn’t have worked out much better for either side. Hernández had one of the best seasons of his career. He earned his second All-Star nod and Silver Slugger award while picking up down ballot MVP votes for the third time. Hernández established a new career high in home runs with rate stats that were in line with his best years in Toronto. He was an instrumental part of a championship roster.
The down year in 2023 looks like an anomaly. He’s hardly the only veteran hitter to struggle in Seattle’s extremely pitcher-friendly home park. Hernández has been an impact hitter in each of the other four seasons since his breakout in 2020. Over the past five years, he owns a .274/.328/.493 batting line in nearly 2700 trips to the plate. There’ll be a decent number of strikeouts, but few players hit the ball as hard as he does. Hernández is an annual threat for 30+ doubles and at least 25-30 homers.
Hernández was the only key offensive player whom the Dodgers feared losing in free agency. He’ll return to join Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Max Muncy, Tommy Edman and Gavin Lux in a loaded offense. The Dodgers added Michael Conforto on a one-year, $17MM contract at the Winter Meetings. No other team rivals the potency of the L.A. lineup.
The Dodgers are taking on some risk from a defensive perspective. Despite plus arm strength and surprisingly strong athleticism, Hernández has never graded as a good defender. That continued this season. Defensive Runs Saved felt he was three runs below par in his 1308 combined innings between the corner outfield spots. Statcast rated him much more harshly, estimating he was 11 runs below average.
Hernández isn’t likely to improve on a contract that runs through age 34. An ideal landing spot would’ve allowed him to move to designated hitter in year two or three. That’s not an option on a team with Ohtani. The Dodgers are moving Betts to shortstop and will have Hernández and Conforto flanking Edman in the outfield. They’ll accept a mediocre defensive unit for the chance to stack with the lineup with good hitters.
Adding Conforto and re-signing Hernández blocks the path to everyday at-bats for youngsters Andy Pages and James Outman. The latter feels like a change of scenery candidate after a disappointing second MLB season. The Dodgers will probably be less inclined to move the 24-year-old Pages, who had a league average .248/.305/.407 showing as a rookie. He still has a minor league option remaining, so they could start him in Triple-A if they don’t want to limit him to fourth outfield work.
Pages doesn’t have anything else to prove in the minors, but the Dodgers have the resources to continue loading up. Other teams figure to at least try to pull him away via trade, though L.A. could prefer to hold him as a replacement for Conforto after next season. Signing Blake Snell and retaining Blake Treinen earlier in the winter leaves the Dodgers without any clear holes on the roster.
At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Hernández would receive a three-year deal at $60MM. He’ll land slightly above that forecast in raw money, though the deferrals will reduce the net present value to a hair below it. A three-year, $66MM deal without deferrals would have come with a $22MM competitive balance tax hit. Hernández’s number ends up around $19.4MM.
Including Hernández, RosterResource calculates the Dodgers’ luxury tax number around $353MM. They’re well beyond the $301MM mark that represents the final tier of penalization. They’re taxed at a 110% rate on the final AAV. Re-signing Hernández will likely cost them upwards of $40MM next year after taxes. The Dodgers have been undeterred by the CBT as they push for a repeat.
Hernández had declined a qualifying offer. Other teams would have needed to forfeit a draft choice to sign him. The Dodgers only relinquish the right to receive a 2025 compensation pick, which would have come after the fourth round. The Blue Jays and Red Sox had also been linked to Hernández this winter. Those clubs (especially Toronto) could turn to Anthony Santander, who stands as the clear top unsigned outfielder. Jurickson Profar is a tier or two below that as the next-best outfield bat.
Yancen Pujols first reported that Hernández and the Dodgers were finalizing a three-year, $66MM deal. Chris Cotillo of MassLive confirmed there was an agreement in place. ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the $15MM option for 2028, as well as the signing bonus and the approximate $23MM in deferrals. Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reported the salary and deferral breakdown. Jon Heyman of the New York Post had the final NPV.
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