Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers! Anthony took questions on whether the Cubs could extend Kyle Tucker, the Angels/Pete Alonso rumors, Robbie Ray's trade candidacy, whether the Marlins would move Sandy Alcantara, the Yankees' third base options, next moves for the Brewers, and much more.
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Which Teams Can Still Use Nolan Arenado?
The Cardinals expected to have traded Nolan Arenado by now. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak suggested at the Winter Meetings that a deal could come together within a week or two. That probably would've been the case had the eight-time All-Star not used his no-trade clause to kill talks about a move to the Astros.
That leaves St. Louis in an awkward position. They've publicly shopped Arenado. He's seemingly amenable to waiving his no-trade clause in certain circumstances. For whatever reason, he wasn't interested in going to Houston last month. Subsequent reporting indicated he could consider the Astros in the future, but the team moved on to Christian Walker almost immediately and no longer needs a corner infielder. The Cardinals need to look elsewhere.
Will Sammon and Katie Woo of the Athletic reported this week that there's been minimal traction on an Arenado trade since the Houston talks collapsed. The Yankees, long a speculative fit, are apparently not as interested as it first seemed. The YES Network's Jack Curry pushed back against that notion last week. Jon Heyman also suggested in a Bleacher Report live stream yesterday that the Yankees were more likely to stick with DJ LeMahieu than to go after Arenado.
Where does that leave Mozeliak and company?
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Trevor Williams To Open Season In Nationals’ Rotation
The Nationals brought Trevor Williams back on a two-year, $14MM free agent deal this week. The veteran righty spoke with the Washington beat (including Spencer Nusbaum of the Washington Post and Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com) this afternoon and indicated he’ll be part of Dave Martinez’s rotation.
While that’s not surprising in isolation, it potentially sets up a camp battle if Washington sticks with a five-man staff. They signed righty Michael Soroka to a $9MM deal to work as a starter. The Nats are also bringing back four pitchers who started at least 19 games last season: Jake Irvin, MacKenzie Gore, Mitchell Parker and DJ Herz.
All four of those returning arms had productive campaigns. Gore is a former top prospect who posted a 3.90 earned run average while striking out nearly a quarter of opponents across 32 starts. He’ll certainly be in the rotation. Irvin led the team with 187 2/3 innings and turned in a 4.41 ERA with decent underlying metrics. The 27-year-old righty did seem to wear down in the second half, as he allowed a near-6.00 ERA after taking a 3.49 mark into the All-Star Break. He still seems likely to be a starting pitcher himself.
If Washington wanted to begin the year with a five-man staff, that could leave Parker and Herz battling for a job if everyone comes through Spring Training healthy. Herz showed more swing-and-miss ability, fanning nearly 28% of opponents with a 12.9% swinging strike rate in 19 starts as a rookie. The southpaw’s 9.4% walk rate was the highest of any of Washington’s starters, though. Herz has had far more worrisome walk numbers in the minors, including a massive 19% clip over 10 Triple-A starts last year.
Parker, 25, profiles as a steadier back-end arm. He made 29 starts during his debut campaign and turned in a 4.29 ERA through 151 innings. He struck out 20.6% of opponents against a tidy 6.7% walk percentage. Parker doesn’t throw quite as hard as Herz does and doesn’t miss bats at the same rate, but he looks the part of a league average starter.
Washington used a six-man rotation when Williams returned from injury late last season. Patrick Corbin, who is now a free agent, was on hand in the role that Soroka would play this year. That’d be the simplest solution if all six starters are available on Opening Day. Each of Gore, Irvin, Parker and Herz have minor league options, though, so the Nats could send anyone from that group to Triple-A if they wanted to move to a five-man staff.
Prospect Cade Cavalli will be in the mix after missing nearly two full seasons recovering from Tommy John surgery. Nusbaum writes that Cavalli, who made his big league debut with one start in 2022, is likely to open the year in the minors. That’s designed to allow the team to monitor his workload since he has only thrown 8 1/3 minor league innings over the last two years. Cavalli is expected to factor into the MLB staff at some point in the season.
Details On Corbin Burnes Contract
The Diamondbacks finalized their shocking six-year free agent deal with Corbin Burnes on Monday. The former Cy Young winner signed a $210MM contract, though deferrals in the $60MM range were known to have knocked down the net present value to an extent.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports the deal’s specific breakdown. The contract officially contains $64MM in deferred money. Burnes will collect a $10MM signing bonus up front, which was first reported by USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. $10MM of his $30MM salaries over the next two seasons will be deferred. If he does not trigger an opt-out clause after the ’26 season, he’d be due $35MM annually between 2027-30. $11MM of those salaries will be deferred. According to Heyman, the contract comes with a net present value of roughly $193.76MM.
Burnes will be able to opt out with four years and $140MM remaining. Whether he does so will determine when he receives the deferred money. According to the Associated Press, Burnes would be owed either $10MM or $11MM installments between 2031-36 if he does not trigger the out clause. If he does opt out, he’d receive a pair of $10MM payments after the 2027 and ’28 seasons. (There’d only be $20MM in deferrals if he opts out after two years.) Burnes has full no-trade rights for the first two years. That would drop to a 14-team no-trade list for the final four seasons if he doesn’t opt out, per the AP.
Arizona now has a projected rotation featuring Burnes, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Brandon Pfaadt and Eduardo Rodriguez. Righty Ryne Nelson has pitched well enough to hold a rotation job as well, so the Snakes could consider a six-man starting staff to open the year. Even that wouldn’t leave room for Jordan Montgomery, whose $22.5MM salary the D-Backs would be happy to offload. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reported shortly after the Burnes agreement that the Snakes were not on the verge of any rotation trades. That’ll remain a major storyline for the club over the next couple months.
Rockies Hire Scott Oberg As Pitching Coordinator
The Rockies are hiring former reliever Scott Oberg as a minor league pitching coordinator, reports Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. It’s the first full-time instructional position for the 34-year-old since his retirement as a player in 2023.
Oberg has been something of an unofficial coaching presence in Colorado for a couple seasons. He has worked as a part-time consultant for the team’s minor league affiliates and their MLB staff. That served as a trial run for what was always envisioned as a larger coaching or player development role in the long term.
The relationship between the Rockies and Oberg stretches well beyond a decade. Colorado drafted him out of UCONN in the 15th round in 2012. It was an excellent pick, as the righty reached the majors three years later and spent a half-decade in the Colorado ‘pen. He posted consecutive sub-3.00 ERA seasons in 2018 and ’19 and was a key high-leverage piece for skipper Bud Black.
Colorado signed Oberg to a $13MM extension over the 2019-20 offseason. Unfortunately, his playing career would come to a close before he could throw another MLB pitch. Recurring blood clots and thoracic outlet syndrome in his throwing arm made it impossible for Oberg to play again. He worked in Colorado’s scouting department to provide some off-field value over the life of that contract. He announced his retirement when it expired.
Saunders notes that Oberg has earned a master’s degree in sports management from Georgetown since retiring as a player. Given his strong relationship with the Colorado front office and coaching staff, there’s a good chance he’ll move quickly up the team’s pitching development ranks in the next few seasons.
Brewers Acquire Grant Anderson
The Rangers announced they’ve traded reliever Grant Anderson to the Brewers for minor league pitcher Mason Molina. Milwaukee designated left-hander Tyler Jay for assignment to open a 40-man roster spot, according to Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel.
Texas had designated the 27-year-old Anderson for assignment earlier in the week when they finalized the Joc Pederson deal. The low-slot righty has made 49 MLB appearances for the Rangers as an up-and-down reliever. His major league work hasn’t been great, as he has allowed 6.35 earned runs per nine over 62 1/3 innings. Anderson’s respective strikeout (21.5%) and walk (8.8%) rates aren’t far off league average. He has had massive home run issues, though, giving up 16 longballs (2.31 per nine innings) in his major league career.
That hasn’t been as big a problem in the minors. Anderson didn’t allow a single homer over 27 2/3 Triple-A innings this year. He fanned 28.3% of minor league opponents and turned in a sub-3.00 ERA in the Pacific Coast League. Anderson has a 3.87 mark over parts of three seasons for the organization’s top affiliate in Round Rock.
Anderson still has a minor league option remaining, so Milwaukee can keep him at Triple-A Nashville for another season. The Brewers have Trevor Megill, Joel Payamps, Nick Mears and Jared Koenig locked into the Opening Day bullpen. Milwaukee could carry Rule 5 pick Connor Thomas in long relief. That’d only leave a couple ‘pen spots up for grabs if everyone is healthy, so the flexibility afforded by the option is valuable.
Milwaukee acquired Jay from the Mets in July. The 30-year-old southpaw was limited to two MLB appearances after the deal. He tossed three scoreless innings with three walks and strikeouts apiece. Jay had pitched five times for New York earlier in the year, his first taste of big league action.
A former top 10 pick of the Twins, Jay has spent seven seasons in the minor leagues. He had a productive year in Triple-A between the New York and Milwaukee systems, combining for a 3.02 earned run average through 56 2/3 innings. He struck out a slightly below-average 20.5% of opponents while showing excellent control (5.1% walk rate). Milwaukee will trade Jay or put him on waivers within the next five days.
Molina, 21, was Milwaukee’s seventh-round pick last summer. The Arkansas product threw five scoreless innings in Low-A during his initial professional action. The 6’2″ lefty had turned in a 4.47 ERA over 15 appearances (13 starts) for the Razorbacks in his junior season. Baseball America wrote at the time of the draft that Molina’s 89-90 MPH fastball plays above its velocity because of its life at the top of the zone. Molina’s command is a work in progress. He’s a low minors developmental flier for the Rangers.
Padres, Moises Gomez Agree To Minor League Deal
The Padres agreed to a minor league contract with Moisés Gómez last month, according to the MLB.com transaction log. The 26-year-old corner outfielder had been outrighted and released by the Cardinals last season.
Gómez is working to get to the big leagues for the first time. He seemed on track after hitting 39 homers in the minor leagues in 2022. That earned him a 40-man roster spot with St. Louis. Gómez spent the entire ’23 campaign on optional assignment to their Triple-A affiliate. He popped another 30 homers but hit .232 with a .293 on-base percentage. That wasn’t enough to crack the MLB roster. St. Louis sent him through outright waivers last February.
The righty-hitting outfielder again opened the season at the Triple-A level. He hit .208 and saw his power production evaporate, as he only managed three longballs in 45 games before being released. Gómez closed the season in the independent American Association. He has mashed in winter ball in his native Venezuela this offseason. Gómez is hitting .273/.396/.613 with 15 longballs in 48 winter ball games.
San Diego will give him an opportunity to rebound from his difficult past two seasons. Gómez has big power, hitting 127 homers in parts of nine minor league seasons between the Tampa Bay and St. Louis systems. That includes 49 longballs in fewer than 1000 Triple-A plate appearances, though he’s a .236/.303/.452 hitter at that level. He has punched out in nearly a third of his trips to the plate in Triple-A.
Where Can Astros Turn For A Left-Handed Outfielder?
After last month’s Kyle Tucker trade, the outfield is the biggest question for the Astros. Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick are lined up to start in center and right field, respectively. Meyers is a defensive stalwart without much offensive upside. McCormick has been a very good hitter in the past, but he’s coming off the worst season of his career.
Left field is completely open. While Yordan Alvarez could get a few starts there, the Astros want to use him mostly as a designated hitter. Former top prospect Taylor Trammell, who started one major league game last season, is Houston’s projected left fielder at RosterResource. Trammell is coming off a strong season in Triple-A, but he’s 27 years old and has a .167/.270/.368 batting line over 359 MLB plate appearances. If not Trammell, utility player Mauricio Dubón would probably get the majority of the playing time. Houston still expects to compete for an AL West title. They’ll need to add at least one outfielder before Opening Day.
General manager Dana Brown has acknowledged as much. Houston is looking for a left-handed hitter, in particular, potentially allowing them to spell McCormick or Meyers. The Astros project narrowly above the competitive balance tax threshold and don’t seem likely to make a play for Anthony Santander. If they’re dealing with a tighter budget, where could they look?
Free Agency
Jurickson Profar: Profar might be out of their financial comfort zone as well. As of last month, the switch-hitting left fielder was looking for a deal of at least three years. He’s the best non-Santander outfielder available in free agency. Profar has had an up-and-down career but is coming off by far his best season. He hit .280/.380/.459 with 24 homers behind massively improved exit velocities. He’ll turn 32 in February, but the Astros have made three-year free agent commitments to much older hitters (i.e. José Abreu and Christian Walker). Profar is an ideal fit on paper, but the money could be an issue.
Alex Verdugo: For most of his Red Sox tenure, Verdugo was a capable if mercurial everyday player. He hit .281/.338/.424 across four seasons in Boston. The Sox traded him to the Yankees, who stuck with him as their regular left fielder amidst the worst season of his career. Verdugo finished the year with a .233/.291/.356 slash across 621 plate appearances. Almost all the positives came in the first month of the season. Verdugo carried a .267/.358/.446 line into May. He hit .225/.275/.336 over his final 501 plate appearances. Verdugo doesn’t turn 29 until May, so he’s a plausible rebound candidate, but that’d be less risky for a fringe contender than it is for a true win-now team like Houston. He’s likely looking at a one-year pillow deal, probably for less than the $10MM that Max Kepler received from Philadelphia.
Jesse Winker: Outside of Profar, Winker probably has the best offensive profile of this group. He hit .258/.366/.422 with 13 homers in 404 plate appearances against righty pitching last season. He’s a career .276/.379/.462 hitter with the platoon advantage. Winker isn’t a huge threat against lefties, but he can hit right-handers. The big drawback is the defensive profile. He’s a poor defender in left field who should primarily be a designated hitter. The Astros would either need to have him divide left field work with Alvarez or play Winker there regularly if they want to keep their superstar DH off his feet. Maybe they feel the Crawford Boxes and limited left field to cover in Houston makes that worthwhile. Winker might be able to get two years but shouldn’t be all that expensive.
Jason Heyward: Heyward finished the 2024 season in Houston after being released by the Dodgers. He hit four homers in 24 regular season contests and started one of their Division Series games against the Tigers. While it was a fairly strong finish, Heyward had hit .208/.289/.393 across 197 plate appearances with Los Angeles. He’s at best a strong-side platoon option and might be a better fit for a bench role going into his age-35 season. He’d be available for one year and a base salary of a few million dollars.
David Peralta: Peralta has a similar profile to Heyward. He’s a former above-average regular who has settled into a platoon role in his late 30s. He’s coming off a nice season for the Padres, hitting .267/.335/.415 across 260 plate appearances. The Astros would probably prefer to bring Heyward back if they’re going this route, but Peralta had better numbers in 2024.
Trade Candidates
Jesús Sánchez: Outside of Sandy Alcántara and the dead money owed to released outfielder Avisaíl García, Sánchez projects as the highest-paid player on the Marlins. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $3.2MM salary in his second of four trips through arbitration. That’s hardly exorbitant, but Miami has shown a willingness to move virtually anyone amidst their full rebuild. Sánchez is a former top prospect who has settled in as a low-end regular in the big leagues. He’s coming off a .252/.313/.417 showing with 18 homers and 16 stolen bases — his second straight league average offensive performance. He’s a roughly average defender in either corner. The 27-year-old may not have the upside that many prospect evaluators had hoped, but he’d be an upgrade over Trammell.
Mike Yastrzemski: The Giants seemed likely to deal one of their arbitration-eligible players at the start of the offseason. Yastrzemski, who agreed to a $9.25MM salary in his final year of club control, seemed the most logical candidate. San Francisco has been quiet since pulling off the Willy Adames deal, however, so they might not be looking to shed payroll to open additional free agent pursuits. Yastrzmeski is coming off a .231/.302/.437 showing with 18 homers through 474 trips to the plate.
Willi Castro: Castro is a switch-hitting utility player who has more than 800 innings of left field experience. He has had a solid two-year run in Minnesota, hitting .251/.334/.395 in 1044 plate appearances. Castro was a nice find for the Twins’ front office, who inked him to a minor league deal after he’d been non-tendered by the Tigers. He’s in his final winter of arbitration and projected for a $6.2MM salary. Minnesota highly values his versatility and clubhouse presence, so they’re probably not keen on moving him. Yet the Twins are working with an extremely tight budget and have done nothing in free agency. Trading Castro would be one way to open a bit of payroll space.
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There are a few other trade candidates if Houston wanted to take a bigger swing. Players like Wilyer Abreu, Jake McCarthy and Alec Burleson could be available. They’d require a stronger prospect return than any of Sánchez, Yastrzmeski or Castro, however. That seems unlikely considering the Astros dealt Tucker because they wanted to add talent to a very thin farm system without giving up on the upcoming season.
Angels, Sebastian Rivero Agree To Minor League Deal
The Angels signed catcher Sebastián Rivero to a minor league contract last month, as reflected on the MLB.com transaction log. It’s unclear if he’ll be invited to major league Spring Training.
Rivero, 26, has two seasons of major league experience. He played in 34 games for the Royals between 2021-22, hitting .167 without a home run over 73 trips to the plate. Kansas City released him after the ’22 campaign. The Venezuelan-born catcher has spent the past two seasons in the upper minors, dividing his time between the White Sox and Braves organizations. He hit .186/.239/.249 in 75 games between Double-A and Triple-A in the Atlanta system a year ago. Rivero has been playing winter ball, where he’s hitting .182 in 21 games.
While there’s clearly not a ton of offensive upside, Rivero adds catching depth to the upper levels of the minors. He has started nearly 400 games and caught almost 3500 innings in his minor league career. Rivero has cut down around a quarter of attempted basestealers in each of the last two seasons.
Logan O’Hoppe and Travis d’Arnaud will divide the catching duties at Angel Stadium. Recent trade pickup Chuckie Robinson projects as the top depth option as the only other catcher on the 40-man roster. They hadn’t had any non-roster catchers with major league experience before signing Rivero, who could back Robinson up at Triple-A Salt Lake.
Latest On Max Scherzer
With the rotation market moving more quickly than the rest of free agency, the number of unsigned starting pitchers is dwindling. Jack Flaherty, Nick Pivetta and potential reliever conversion Jeff Hoffman are at the top of the class. Beyond that, teams are evaluating pitchers who’ll likely be limited to one- or two-year commitments.
Max Scherzer may be the most intriguing of those short-term targets. The future Hall of Famer was limited to nine starts and 43 1/3 innings during his final season with the Rangers. Scherzer has made clear that he has no plans to retire. He’ll be back for his age-40 campaign in hopes of a healthier, more productive season.
In a live stream for Bleacher Report this afternoon, Jon Heyman suggested that Scherzer is fielding interest from four teams. Heyman indicated that the market “is heating up a bit,” so it’s possible that the three-time Cy Young winner could come off the board in the relatively near future.
Scherzer opened the ’24 season on the injured list as he finished rehab from last December’s back surgery. Nerve irritation in his throwing hand delayed his return until late June. Scherzer made eight starts before going back on the shelf with shoulder fatigue. That kept him out into September. His season concluded after one additional start because of a strained left hamstring.
A pitcher battling multiple injuries, including back surgery, at age 40 is obviously going to raise concerns. Scherzer is only one season removed from starting 30 games and topping 160 innings between the regular season and playoffs. He’d surpassed 170 innings in every full schedule between 2009-21. Until last year, he’d been incredibly durable.
Scherzer remains productive when he’s able to pitch, albeit not at a Cy Young level. He turned in a 3.77 ERA with a 28% strikeout rate between the Mets and Rangers in 2023. Last season, he allowed just under four earned runs per nine with a diminished 22.6% strikeout percentage. Scherzer still got a ton of chases and whiffs on a per-pitch basis though. His 14.6% swinging strike rate ranked fifth among starting pitchers with 40+ innings. Only Blake Snell, Garrett Crochet, Logan Gilbert and Dylan Cease missed bats at a higher rate.
Aside from perhaps Flaherty, Scherzer arguably has the highest ceiling for next season alone of any unsigned starter. There’s also significant risk because of the recent spate of injuries. Scherzer will almost certainly be limited to a one-year contract, so the long-term downside is limited, but he should command a strong salary.
Alex Cobb landed $15MM from the Tigers coming off a season in which he combined for 23 innings between the regular season and playoffs. He recently turned 37 and doesn’t miss bats at anywhere near the rate Scherzer does. It stands to reason that Scherzer and his representation at the Boras Corporation will be aiming to beat Cobb money, perhaps in pursuit of a contract closer to $20MM.
Heyman’s report doesn’t specify any of the teams involved in the bidding. Speculatively speaking, the Braves, Orioles, Blue Jays, Cubs, Nationals and Mets are among the teams that could have some spending room and a desire for a short-term upside play. Scherzer isn’t going to sign with a team that doesn’t have a path to contention, but there are very few truly rebuilding clubs right now. Every team aside from Colorado, Miami and the White Sox may feel they have a path to a Wild Card spot.