The Cubs’ Third Base Possibilities
Few teams have been linked more prominently to Matt Chapman this offseason than the Cubs. Chicago’s recent move to re-sign Cody Bellinger on an $80MM guarantee makes that decidedly less likely. Chapman remains on the open market but the Bellinger deal pushed the Cubs to the edge of the luxury tax threshold.
There aren’t many other external options. Maybe there’s a trickle-down effect once Chapman does sign — the Giants may be the favorite for his services and could market J.D. Davis if they landed him — but the Cubs seem likelier to stick with their in-house candidates. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer suggested at the Bellinger press conference that Chicago feels good about the roster as it stands, although he said the front office would consider opportunities that might present themselves.
Let’s run through the current options to take the hot corner:
While Madrigal doesn’t look the part of a third baseman, he narrowly led the team in playing time there last season. Previously a career-long second baseman, Madrigal handled himself well defensively. Statcast credited him with 10 runs above average in only 560 1/3 innings. The range he’d shown in the middle infield remained on display. Before he moved across the diamond, there was concern about his arm strength. That wasn’t much of an issue. Madrigal doesn’t have a great arm, but it’s not poor enough to prevent him from making most plays.
The bigger question is whether he hits enough to profile as a regular anywhere on the diamond. Madrigal’s very slight frame leads to minimal power projection. He has preternatural bat-to-ball skills but needs to hit a lot of singles to compensate for the lack of power and very low walk rates. Last season’s .263/.311/.352 batting line in 294 plate appearances more closely resembled utility production.
Wisdom has the polar opposite profile from Madrigal. He has massive raw power and has topped 20 homers in three straight seasons. He connected on 23 longballs in only 302 plate appearances a year ago. While Madrigal has perhaps the best pure contact ability of anyone in the majors, Wisdom swings and misses as much as any regular. He fanned in nearly 37% of his plate appearances last season, a rate he has matched over three-plus years in Chicago.
The end result was a .205/.289/.500 slash. Chicago valued his power production enough to keep him around on a $2.725MM arbitration contract. That’s not an exorbitant cost for a right-handed bench bat, a role that probably suits Wisdom better than playing regularly at third base. He has an above-average arm but limited range, leading to subpar defensive grades in each of the last two years.
Morel, 24, might have the best physical tools for the job. He has big power, blasting 26 homers in 107 games a year ago. Morel has hit 42 longballs over his first 854 MLB plate appearances. That comes with a lot of strikeouts, albeit not quite at Wisdom levels. He punched out 31% of the time last season, hitting .247/.313/.508 in 429 trips.
Even with a lot of whiffs, Morel is a valuable hitter. He has had a much harder time on the other side of the ball. Despite being a good athlete with top-of-the-scale arm strength, Morel has rated poorly in the outfield and in a very limited sample of third base work. Hoyer suggested early in the offseason the Cubs felt he’s best suited at second base, but Nico Hoerner has that position secure in Chicago.
That makes third base the logical choice. Manager Craig Counsell told reporters that they’ll play Morel primarily at the hot corner this spring (link via Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune). It’d be a major boost for the Cubs if he’s capable of handling the position. If he doesn’t show the necessary hands or instincts to play there regularly, they’d be left looking for ways to shoehorn his bat into the lineup.
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The job is likely to fall to someone from that trio early on, with Madrigal and Morel standing as the likeliest options. Miles Mastrobuoni picked up 24 starts there last season. He remains on the 40-man roster but projects for a depth role after hitting .241/.308/.301 through 145 plate appearances.
Trade acquisition Michael Busch logged a bit of third base action as the Dodgers experimented with ways to get him into the lineup. He’s not a particularly good defender anywhere, the biggest reason he never forced his way into everyday reps in Los Angeles. The Cubs are planning to give him more regular run at first base, although he could theoretically move across the diamond from time to time if Chicago moved Bellinger to first base to plug Pete Crow-Armstrong into center field.
The Cubs entered the 2023 season with a similar group as they have now. They addressed the position at the deadline with the Jeimer Candelario trade. That could be the path again — Davis and Brandon Drury are among the players who could move this summer — but there’s also a chance that last year’s first-round pick forces his way to Wrigley Field midseason.
Matt Shaw is already viewed as one of the sport’s most promising minor league hitters. The Maryland product shredded pro pitching at a .357/.400/.618 clip after the draft. He only has 15 games of Double-A experience, so he won’t be an option on Opening Day. As an advanced college bat, he could get to the big leagues by the end of his first full professional season. Shaw was a middle infielder with the Terps, but third base is the clearest path to an MLB debut in 2024.
Padres Remain Interested In Outfield Addition
The Padres continue their search for an established outfielder, writes Dennis Lin of the Athletic. Free agent Tommy Pham remains a possibility, Lin indicates. San Diego’s regular season opener is just three weeks away.
Lin first reported the Padres had given some consideration to Pham at the beginning of the month. While San Diego has since added Jurickson Profar on a $1MM pact, that’s not a huge impediment to bringing in another outfielder. San Diego still has only three outfielders on the 40-man roster: Fernando Tatis Jr., José Azócar and Profar.
Regardless of whether they add anyone else, they’re sorting through a few non-roster players battling in camp. None is more exciting than 20-year-old Jackson Merrill. San Diego is working out the top shortstop prospect in the outfield this spring. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune wrote this afternoon that Merrill seems increasingly likely to secure a spot on the Opening Day roster.
The Padres wouldn’t call Merrill up if they weren’t going to give him everyday run. He’d be making the jump past Triple-A. The former first-round pick split last year between High-A and Double-A. Merrill put up a .273/.338/.444 line in 211 plate appearances with Double-A San Antonio. That’s solid work in the pitcher-friendly Texas League, although it doesn’t guarantee he’ll find success against big league pitching right away.
Depending on potential acquisitions, the Padres could offer Merrill regular run in either left or center field. Pham would be limited to left field. Landing him would kick Profar to the bench and provide an upgrade to the lineup. Pham is coming off a .256/.328/.446 slash with 16 homers and 22 steals through 481 plate appearances between the Mets and Diamondbacks. He’s a known quantity for the front office after playing in San Diego from 2020-21.
Adding a corner outfielder would leave Merrill competing with Azócar and perhaps Jakob Marsee for the center field job. Azócar is a good runner and defensive specialist who has hit .249/.292/.341 in 153 big league games. Marsee, 22, only has 16 games above High-A. He posted excellent numbers at High-A Fort Wayne a year ago, running a .273/.413/.425 line with 41 steals and more walks than strikeouts. Prospect evaluators generally rank him as a solid but not elite minor league talent. He’s widely projected as a fourth outfielder based on strong strike zone awareness with limited power.
Each of Oscar Mercado, Bryce Johnson, Cal Mitchell and Tim Locastro are in camp on minor league deals. None of them is likely to step into an everyday role, but there should be room for at least one to secure a bench spot. Michael A. Taylor is the only potential regular center fielder left on the free agent market. Pham, Adam Duvall and Eddie Rosario are the top corner options. There’s still some activity on the trade front, as this week’s deal sending Manuel Margot to Minnesota demonstrates. While the Padres have been loosely connected to Jarren Duran and Sal Frelick in trade rumors, there’s no indication they made any headway in those discussions.
Boras, Hoyer Discuss Bellinger Signing
The Cubs reintroduced Cody Bellinger at a press conference this morning. The two-time All-Star was alongside agent Scott Boras and Chicago president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer to discuss his protracted free agent process (link to the full presser).
At the start of the offseason, few would’ve expected Bellinger settling for a three-year guarantee worth $80MM. His camp began the winter in search of a much larger offer, reportedly seeking upwards of $200MM. Unsurprisingly, no one confirmed the precise contract terms that Bellinger had sought, although the former MVP conceded he initially expected an extended deal.
“Yeah, I think there’s definitely that thought that goes into it,” Bellinger said when asked if he anticipated signing a long-term contract. “Ultimately, that’s the goal. … I talked to Scott continuously to see what was going on. At the end of the day, I’m super excited how it all worked out. Yes, obviously (thought about a longer deal), but I’m very excited with it all and very happy to get going.”
With the offseason nearing an end, it’s clear that teams weren’t going to meet Bellinger’s asking price on that kind of contract. At that point, he moved to the much shorter term with the ability to opt out and retest free agency in either of the next two offseasons. He’ll collect $30MM for the upcoming season. If he repeats his 2023 production, he’ll almost certainly take another swing at a massive contract — this time without a qualifying offer attached and with potentially greater confidence around the league that he has put his dismal 2021-22 campaigns behind him.
Boras suggested that Bellinger was always targeting one of those outcomes: either an especially long-term deal or a short-term pact with opt-outs. “Cody and I agreed that we’re going to look at this in a couple ways. We’re going to have two positive outcomes for this process. … Our dynamic was to determine what it was on the other end with a contract of great length. As we got through that process and looked to it, that’s certainly where we let Jed know that on something like this — with this kind of structure, with this kind of flexibility, with these kinds of things, is what we’re looking for. We had mutual agreement and understanding that this type of structure was agreeable to both of us.”
Bellinger’s youth certainly plays a part in that. He turns 29 in July, leaving open the possibility of seeking another long-term pact next winter. His camp seemed to prefer that to locking in a five- or six-year contract that would’ve guaranteed more than $80MM but wasn’t close to his initial asking price and wouldn’t have allowed him to get back to the market.
The short term with the higher annual salary works well for the Cubs. Bellinger offers cover in both center field and at first base. Chicago had been set to turn to highly-touted but unproven players in Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Busch at those respective positions. The move pushes the Cubs to a franchise high in terms of player spending.
RosterResource calculates their 2024 payroll around $222MM. They’re at $234MM in estimated luxury tax commitments, just below the $237MM base threshold. It’s probable the Cubs will up end up paying the CBT if they’re as competitive as they hope. Even if this is their final move of the offseason, any salary taken on in midseason acquisitions counts against the CBT on a prorated basis.
Hoyer predictably declined to answer when asked if ownership was willing to pay the luxury tax. He noted that it’s his “expectation” they’ll carry this roster into the season, although he indicated the front office will stay open to opportunities. “Obviously, we’re never going to stop looking. Never put a final nail in that because things come up all the time — trades, free agents. But, it’s the 28th of February, so I think that’s the expectation, though I would never rule anything out.“
Latest On Mets’ Rotation Plans
The Mets have remained in contact with representatives for some free agent starters, write Tim Britton and Will Sammon of the Athletic. Britton and Sammon report that right-hander Michael Lorenzen is one of the players with whom New York has touched base.
It doesn’t seem that’s reflective of strong current interest in the 2023 All-Star, however. The Athletic writes that the Mets may be keeping lines of communication open with starters in case they lose another member of their rotation to injury. Presumptive Opening Day starter Kodai Senga suffered a strain in his throwing shoulder last week and isn’t expected to be ready until sometime in May.
[Related: Let’s Find A Home For Michael Lorenzen]
Baseball operations president David Stearns said in the wake of the Senga injury that he didn’t anticipate it’d lead to increased urgency to add another starter. Even if that’s currently the case, losing someone else in the next couple weeks could change the calculus. David Peterson is also out into the middle of the season after undergoing an offseason labrum repair in his left hip.
At the moment, the starting five projects as Luis Severino, José Quintana, Sean Manaea, Adrian Houser and one of José Butto, Tylor Megill or Joey Lucchesi. Waiver pickup Max Kranick also holds a 40-man roster spot. The Mets haven’t added any non-roster starting pitchers with MLB experience this offseason. It’s a reasonably deep group but one without a clear top-end arm while Senga is on the shelf.
To that end, Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote yesterday that the Mets should consider pursuing Jordan Montgomery. The left-hander would knock everyone else down a notch on the rotation depth chart. Unlike Blake Snell, he wouldn’t cost the team a draft choice, since Montgomery was ineligible for a qualifying offer because of a midseason trade. It’s unclear how much his camp is still seeking. Montgomery was reportedly looking for a deal exceeding the seven years and $172MM which Aaron Nola secured early in the offseason. This deep into the winter, a four- or five-year pact appears much more likely.
The Mets still don’t appear willing to make that level of commitment. SNY’s Andy Martino writes that the Mets haven’t been involved on Snell or Montgomery. Martino adds that they’re unlikely to land a starter from the next tier of free agency (e.g. Lorenzen, Mike Clevinger) unless those players’ asking prices fall. Instead, Martino suggests they’re likely to explore depth additions who could be cut loose by another team at the end of Spring Training or would be amenable to a minor league pact.
New York would need to pay a 110% tax on any spending since they’re in the final tier of luxury penalization and have exceeded the threshold in three straight years. Signing Montgomery for $22MM annually, to use a hypothetical, would cost the Mets more than $46MM for the upcoming season after taxes — $22MM to the player, $24.2MM in CBT fees. Signing Lorenzen or Clevinger to a $10MM contract would cost the team $21MM.
Orioles, Julio Teheran Agree To Minor League Deal
The Orioles are in agreement with righty Julio Teherán on a minor league contract with an invite to big league camp, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (X link). The deal comes with a $2MM base salary if he cracks the MLB roster for the Mato Sports Management client.
Teherán can battle for a rotation or long relief job with Baltimore. The 33-year-old started 11 of 14 big league outings with the Brewers a year ago. He allowed 4.40 earned runs per nine across 71 2/3 innings. Teherán showed excellent control, keeping his walks under the 5% threshold. He doesn’t miss many bats, though, running a modest 17.4% strikeout percentage behind an 8.9% swinging strike rate.
That was Teherán’s 12th big league campaign. The two-time All-Star has bounced between a few clubs since leaving the Braves after the 2019 season. He was blitzed for a 10.05 ERA with the Angels in 2020. Injuries kept him to one start for Detroit the next year and he was out of affiliated ball two seasons ago.
Teherán doesn’t throw particularly hard at this stage of his career. His fastball has steadily dipped over his major league run. He averaged an even 90 MPH with his sinker a year ago. While opponents teed off on that pitch, Teherán found a bit more success with his secondary offerings.
Baltimore has some questions at the back of the starting staff. With Kyle Bradish and John Means opening the season on the injured list, the O’s are down to Corbin Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer as rotation locks. Cole Irvin and Tyler Wells appear the frontrunners for the last two spots. Bruce Zimmermann and Jonathan Heasley are each on the 40-man roster as depth options.
Orioles Notes: Ownership, Santander, Tate
The Orioles ownership change could be made official in the coming weeks. Evan Drellich of the Athletic wrote yesterday that MLB is likely to formally approve the sale of the O’s to David Rubenstein by April. According to Drellich, there’s a small chance the deal could be completed before Opening Day.
Rubenstein agreed to purchase the franchise from the Angelos family in late January for $1.725 billion. He’ll assume control of 40% of the organization initially and will reportedly take on the majority stake upon the passing of Peter Angelos. The agreement still needs to be approved by MLB owners but that’s largely a formality.
Receiving that rubber stamp still marks a key moment for the franchise. The fanbase is hopeful that Rubenstein will authorize the kind of long-term investment from which the organization has shied away since John Angelos became control person. The O’s finally made their long-awaited consolidation trade for an ace to install Corbin Burnes at the front of the rotation. They haven’t pulled off an analogous strike on the free agent or extension fronts. Félix Bautista’s $1MM salary and a handful of option buyouts are the only contractual commitments beyond this year.
Burnes headlines their group of players who’ll hit free agency after the upcoming season. The former Cy Young winner has spoken about his desire to get to the open market. Anthony Santander is perhaps the second-most impactful of Baltimore’s possible free agents. He has spent his entire MLB career with the O’s after being selected in the 2016 Rule 5 draft. The switch-hitting outfielder indicated he’d be happy to stay off the market.
“I would love that,” Santander replied when asked about an extension (link via Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun). “That’s something that we always talk about outside of this room with my family and friends. I would love to stay here. We leave that business side to the front office. We’re just here to live in the moment right now, prepare ourselves.”
While Santander projects as one of the more effective hitters in the upcoming class, it’s possible the O’s don’t feel much urgency in extending him. Baltimore’s stockpile of young talent extends to the outfield. In addition to established starters Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays (both of whom are under control through 2025), the O’s have Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser and Kyle Stowers as controllable outfielders who have reached the majors. They could count on someone from that group stepping into a regular role for ’25 and beyond.
Baltimore would be able to make Santander a qualifying offer in the absence of a long-term deal. It seems unlikely they’d want to offer a one-year salary that’d exceed $20MM, but Santander could play his way into legitimate QO consideration if he turns in another season like his 2023 campaign. He’s coming off an impressive .257/.325/.472 showing with 28 homers.
The O’s can delay that decision until next winter. Their more immediate focus is on defending last year’s AL East crown. Getting Dillon Tate back into high-leverage innings would be a nice boost towards those efforts. The former #4 overall pick turned in a 3.05 ERA over a career-high 73 2/3 frames back in 2022. He missed all of last season nursing a flexor strain but avoided surgery and is back in the bullpen mix this spring. Tate threw a perfect inning with a strikeout of Ryan Kreidler in today’s exhibition game against Detroit, his first game action of the year.
Blue Jays’ Erik Swanson Away From Team While Son Recovers From Accident
Blue Jays reliever Erik Swanson is taking time away from the team after his four year-old-son Toby was struck by a car, manager John Schneider announced this morning (link via Shi Davidi of Sportsnet). The accident occurred on Sunday in the Clearwater area. Toby was airlifted to a local hospital.
Schneider said that Toby “is on the road to recovery” but understandably didn’t provide many specifics. Swanson will be away from the team to be with his family. “The guys have been great. Erik and his wife Madison are very thankful for the support. And we’re going to continue to give it as long as we need to,” Schneider told reporters. “Again, baseball is secondary when you’re talking about family and life. We’re going to continue to support him. The guys have been absolutely phenomenal with him so far and you can’t forget about players’ wives and significant others that have reached out as well. It’s been a rough couple of days, but it’s really, really nice to see the support for Erik.”
The Blue Jays released a brief statement on X sending “love, support and prayers (to) the entire Swanson family.” MLBTR joins countless others throughout the game in sending our best wishes to the Swanson family.
Toronto acquired Swanson from the Mariners last offseason. He turned in a 2.96 ERA in 66 2/3 innings during his first season with the club.
Giants Remain Involved On Snell, Chapman
The Giants continue to explore the markets for Blake Snell and Matt Chapman as March draws near, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. One source tells Slusser there’s roughly a 50-50 chance that San Francisco comes away with one of those players.
Snell would address the bigger need, at least in the short term. San Francisco has a patchwork rotation behind Cy Young runner-up Logan Webb. The Giants signed longtime reliever Jordan Hicks to a four-year deal with the promise of a rotation job. Hicks’ personal high in innings at the MLB level is 77 2/3 from his 2018 rookie season. He hasn’t reached the 70-inning mark since then.
The options beyond Hicks are even less established. Kyle Harrison is one of the sport’s most talented pitching prospects, but he has seven MLB games under his belt. The southpaw averaged fewer than four innings per appearance over 20 Triple-A starts a year ago. That was partially to keep his workload in check but also reflected his inefficiency. Harrison struck out an excellent 35.6% of Triple-A opponents but walked upwards of 16% of batters faced.
Webb, Hicks and Harrison are the three locks for the Opening Day staff. Alex Cobb will begin the year on the injured list as he works back from hip surgery. Robbie Ray won’t be ready until around the All-Star Break at the earliest during his rehab from last year’s Tommy John procedure. Keaton Winn and Tristan Beck entered camp with the presumed edge on the fourth and fifth rotation spots. They’ve each been set back by injury during exhibition play. Winn was delayed by elbow soreness, although he maintained over the weekend he expects to be ready for Opening Day. Beck just left the team to undergo testing after experiencing discomfort in his right hand.
A starting five of Webb, Hicks, Harrison, Winn and Beck is already not ideal for a team that hopes to compete for a playoff spot. Losing either Winn or Beck would require dipping further into depth options like Sean Hjelle, Ethan Small, prospect Kai-Wei Teng or a non-roster invitee like Daulton Jefferies or Tommy Romero.
While Snell hasn’t been a consistent source of volume throughout his career, he’s coming off his second 180-inning season. He’d upgrade any rotation and would afford the Giants the luxury of plugging in the top two finishers in last year’s NL Cy Young voting. There’d still be some questions about the staff’s durability, but a top three of Webb, Snell and Harrison would have one of the highest ceilings in the league.
Of course, the question is whether they’ll line up on an agreeable price point. No team has yet met Snell’s ask. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote this afternoon that the southpaw may be open to considering a short-term offer that allows him to opt out and retest free agency. Fellow Boras Corporation client Cody Bellinger took that route on a three-year, $80MM pact with the Cubs over the weekend. It’s hard to envision Snell turning in a better platform season than the one he had in 2023, though. He allowed only 2.25 earned runs per nine over the course of the year and turned in a 1.23 mark from June onward.
The Yankees have reportedly had an offer out to Snell for weeks. Heyman reported this morning that his camp spoke with New York brass again yesterday but didn’t have any kind of breakthrough. The Angels have also been loosely linked to Snell.
Chapman, on the other hand, doesn’t play a position of strict need. The Giants have a solid third baseman in J.D. Davis. Were they to land Chapman, they’d likely flip Davis to a team with a more pressing desire for help at the hot corner. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and new manager Bob Melvin both have ties to Chapman from their days with the A’s. He’d markedly upgrade the infield defense, although it’s debatable whether he’s enough of an offensive improvement on Davis to make that move worthwhile.
Zaidi recently suggested the team was unlikely to make any more free agent splashes this offseason. Perhaps that was simply public posturing or the recent health uncertainty surrounding Winn and Beck could change the calculus. In any case, San Francisco should have payroll flexibility. Roster Resource projects their 2024 spending around $164MM. They’re at roughly $213MM in luxury tax obligations. That puts them about $24MM shy of both the base CBT threshold and last year’s Opening Day payroll.
Signing Snell, in particular, would likely push them into luxury tax territory — especially if they added him on a higher-AAV deal to avoid a lengthy commitment. It’d be easier to fit Chapman onto the ledger without going into CBT range, since they’d then have reason to shed Davis’ $6.9MM salary in trade.
The fees for surpassing the luxury tax would be relatively modest if they edged past $237MM. They’d only owe a 20% tax on spending between $237MM and $257MM. The Giants last paid the CBT in 2017. Snell and Chapman each declined the qualifying offer; signing either player would cost the Giants their second-highest pick in the upcoming draft and $500K in international bonus pool space.
Cardinals Sign Brandon Crawford
February 27: The Cardinals made the deal official, announcing it today. Per Slusser, Crawford will make a salary of $2MM.
February 26: The Cardinals are reportedly in agreement with shortstop Brandon Crawford on a major league deal, pending a physical. Financial terms have not yet been reported. Crawford is a Wasserman client. The Cardinals will need to make a 40-man roster move once the deal is finalized.
St. Louis has been looking for a veteran infielder who could take on the backup shortstop job. Crawford was perhaps the top unsigned player who could fill that role. It’ll assuredly be a low-cost flier on the 13-year big league veteran, who’ll take on a depth job for the first time in his career. Crawford has been a starting shortstop since debuting with the Giants back in 2011.
The UCLA product had an excellent run over his time in the Bay Area. Crawford helped the Giants to World Series titles in 2012 and ’14. He was one of the sport’s preeminent defensive infielders during the last decade. Crawford won three consecutive Gold Glove awards in 2015-17 and took a step forward with the bat in his late-20s. He earned a Silver Slugger in 2015 and turned in average or better offensive production in six of the eight seasons between 2014-21.
Crawford inked a six-year extension over the 2015-16 offseason. That put him on track to reach free agency after the 2021 campaign. He surprisingly turned in the best season of his career that year, hitting .298/.373/.522 en route to a fourth-place finish in NL MVP balloting. The Giants kept him around for another two years at $16MM annually on an extension signed towards the end of that season.
While an understandable decision during Crawford’s resurgent season, the latter extension did not pan out. Crawford’s offensive production plummeted beginning in 2022. He hit .231/.308/.344 two seasons ago. His production fell off further last year. The left-handed hitter put up a personal-worst .194/.273/.314 slash line in 320 trips to the plate. Crawford punched out in more than a quarter of his plate appearances for the first time in his career.
Injuries have sent him to the shelf on a few occasions over the last two years. Since the start of 2022, he has had IL stints related to his left knee (twice), right knee, right calf, left forearm and right hamstring. None of those required a long-term absence, but it’s possible that playing through any number of those issues has taken a toll on his performance.
The Cardinals can’t expect much from Crawford offensively as he enters his age-37 campaign. Public metrics are split on how valuable he remains on the other side of the ball. Crawford isn’t the elite defender he was at his peak. Statcast still grades him as a solid gloveman, giving him above-average marks every season since it began tracking in 2015. That includes an estimated four runs above average a year ago.
Defensive Runs Saved has been far less forgiving. DRS has graded Crawford as a well below-average defender two years running. It marked him 14 runs below par in 725 2/3 innings last season. Among shortstops, only Tim Anderson and Amed Rosario fared more poorly by that estimate.
St. Louis will be hopeful of at least passable glovework in a rotational role. The Cards are going to turn the position to rookie Masyn Winn. The 21-year-old struggled in a very limited MLB look at the end of last season, hitting .172/.230/.238 in 37 games. Prospect evaluators have praised his defensive acumen and power upside, though, and the Cards haven’t made any effort to block his path to MLB playing time.
Winn’s presence pushed last year’s Opening Day shortstop, Tommy Edman, to center field. While he’s still capable of handling the middle infield, the Crawford signing will allow manager Oli Marmol to keep Edman in the outfield even on days when Winn needs a breather. It also affords the Cardinals some security in case Edman isn’t available early in the season. The switch-hitter is working back from an arthroscopic right wrist procedure. He’s hopeful of being ready for Opening Day but has yet to begin taking live batting practice with less than a month until the regular season.
Aside from Edman, St. Louis didn’t have a clear backup shortstop on their 40-man roster. Neither Brendan Donovan nor José Fermín is a great fit there. Crawford takes that role. Roster Resource projects the St. Louis payroll around $182MM, pending the Crawford deal. He shouldn’t add more than a couple million dollars to that ledger.
As for the Giants, they’ll officially bid farewell to one of the faces of the franchise’s recent history. It became clear towards the end of last season that things were headed in this direction. San Francisco is going to turn shortstop over to a top prospect of their own, Marco Luciano. They signed longtime division rival Nick Ahmed to a minor league deal to serve as glove-first veteran depth. Crawford returned from the injured list on the final day of last season so he could receive a proper send-off from the San Francisco fanbase. He’s the final player from their 2012 and ’14 World Series teams to depart the organization, although Pablo Sandoval has since returned on a non-roster pact.
Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle first indicated Crawford and St. Louis were in talks. Katie Woo of the Athletic was first to report the sides had reached an agreement. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported it was a major league deal.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Red Sox, Montgomery Had Zoom Meeting Before Start Of Spring Training
The Red Sox have been tied to Jordan Montgomery for the bulk of the offseason. Reporting last week indicated the Sox remained interested in the left-hander but continued to wait for his asking price to drop.
ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted this morning that the Red Sox had “recently” conducted a Zoom meeting with Montgomery. Manager Alex Cora confirmed to the Boston beat the meeting took place but indicated it happened before the beginning of Spring Training.
“Buster is right,” Cora said (link via Christopher Smith and Sean McAdam of MassLive). “We zoomed with him. But we’ve been zooming with a lot of people throughout the offseason. I’m not going to get into specifics but yeah, it’s part of the process. It was a while ago, too. I was in South Beach for that one. I was in Miami.” Smith and McAdam point out that Cora was in Miami on the weekend of February 9-11 to watch the end of the Caribbean series and take part in a University of Miami alumni event.
Clearly, that conversation didn’t result in an immediate agreement. With Montgomery still on the market two and a half weeks later, the Sox remain a logical fit. They haven’t markedly upgraded their rotation throughout the winter. Boston took a flier on Lucas Giolito before shipping out Chris Sale for second baseman Vaughn Grissom.
They’re currently set to enter the season with a front four of Giolito, Brayan Bello, Nick Pivetta and Kutter Crawford. Righties Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock and Josh Winckowski would battle for the final spot. Installing Montgomery atop the group would allow Boston to keep the latter three arms in multi-inning relief roles to begin the year.
[Related: Where Does The Market Stand For Jordan Montgomery?]
The question is whether his asking price will fall to a level with which the Red Sox are comfortable. CEO Sam Kennedy sam last month the Sox anticipated opening the season with a lower payroll than they had in 2023. Roster Resource calculates their 2024 CBT number around $202MM. That’s nowhere near the $237MM base threshold and around $23MM shy of last year’s estimated mark. Signing Montgomery wouldn’t push the Sox into CBT territory, but it would likely push them close to their 2023 spending range.
One of the “Boras Four,” Cody Bellinger, came off the market over the weekend on a three-year deal. The $80MM guarantee was nowhere near what his camp had sought early in the offseason. A reported ask above $200MM never materialized, leaving Bellinger to settle for a modified pillow contract that could allow him to retest free agency via opt-outs in either of the next two offseasons.
That kind of contract might not be as appealing to Montgomery. He recently turned 31 and was ineligible for the qualifying offer this offseason thanks to the midseason trade sending him from St. Louis to Texas. If he took an opt-out laden deal, he could have to wrestle with draft compensation in a future offseason. Montgomery is coming off a third straight year in which he reached 30 starts. He tossed a personal-high 188 2/3 innings with a 3.20 ERA that was the best mark of his career. He added 31 innings of 2.90 ERA ball over six postseason outings to help the Rangers to the first title in franchise history.