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Javier Baez Opts In To Final Four Years On Tigers’ Deal

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Tigers shortstop Javier Baez declined to opt out of his contract with the Tigers, writes Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press. He’ll be due $98MM over the next four seasons.

There was no suspense with the decision. Baez has struggled mightily since landing in Detroit. He owns a .230/.273/.361 line through the first two seasons of a six-year, $140MM free agent pact. That includes a .222/.267/.325 slash through 547 trips to the dish in 2023.

Baez is due $25MM annually over the next two seasons, followed by $24MM yearly salaries in 2026 and ’27. That contract would make it very difficult for the Tigers to trade him unless they pay the money down almost in entirety. Detroit could look to supplant Baez as the starting shortstop this offseason, although the weak free agent class at the position makes that more challenging than would be the case in a typical winter.

Rangers Do Not Extend Qualifying Offer To Mitch Garver

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Rangers catcher/designated hitter Mitch Garver did not receive a qualifying offer, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (X link). He hits free agency without draft compensation attached as the clear #1 catching option in the class.

Garver played his way to borderline QO candidacy with a huge second half. He finished the season with a .270/.370/.500 line with 19 home runs through 344 plate appearances. He hit at a league average level during the World Series run, finishing postseason play with a .226/.317/.434 slash with a trio of homers in 14 games.

Turning 33 in January, Garver will be capped by his age and injury history in terms of contract length. He’s a lock for a multi-year deal, likely a three-year pact in his first trip to the open market. Gary Sánchez, Tom Murphy and Víctor Caratini are the best catchers beyond him in the class. If Texas lets Garver walk, they’ll likely bring in a veteran backup behind Jonah Heim who pushes Sam Huff to third on the depth chart.

Braves Claim Angel Perdomo, Outright Jackson Stephens

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The Braves have claimed lefty reliever Angel Perdomo off waivers from the Pirates, according to an announcement from Pittsburgh. Atlanta reliever Jackson Stephens was outrighted from the 40-man roster and elected free agency in a corresponding move. Pittsburgh also announced that Yerry De Los Santos — previously reported as on waivers — went unclaimed and was outrighted from the roster.

Perdomo, 29, has pitched in parts of three big league seasons. He logged a personal-high 29 innings with the Pirates in 2023 after signing an offseason minor league deal. The 6’8″ southpaw showed promise, working to a 3.72 ERA while striking out an elite 37.6% of batters faced. He generated swinging strikes at a solid 13% clip and held opposing lefties to a .125/.205/.225 line in a small sample.

Were he healthy, that likely would have been enough to hold a spot in the Pittsburgh relief corps. Unfortunately, Perdomo landed on the injured list with a season-ending elbow problem in August. Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported over the weekend that Perdomo underwent a Tommy John procedure a month ago. He’s likely to miss all of 2024. With no injured list during the offseason, the Bucs felt it best to let him go.

Atlanta will carry him on the 40-man roster, at least for the moment. Should he stick on the roster all winter, they could place him on the 60-day IL during Spring Training. He’ll step into the spot vacated by Stephens, who made five appearances late in the season. The 29-year-old righty posted a 3.28 ERA over 24 2/3 innings with Triple-A Gwinnett. He’s likely to find another minor league deal this offseason.

Guardians Claim Christian Bethancourt From Rays

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The Guardians have claimed catcher Christian Bethancourt from the Rays, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The latter club had placed the backstop on waivers over the weekend. Cleveland has yet to officially announce the move.

This ends Bethancourt’s tenure with the Rays, which began a little before the 2022 trade deadline. Tampa Bay acquired the right-handed hitter in a deal with Oakland, sending a pair of minor leaguers to the A’s. The Panamanian catcher owned a .249/.298/.385 line with the A’s and provided similar production down the stretch in St. Pete, hitting .255/.265/.436 over 45 games.

That was enough to hold his roster spot into 2023. Bethancourt’s low on-base numbers became more of a problem this past season. Over 332 trips to the plate, he hit .225/.254/.381. The one-time top prospect connected on 11 home runs but walked at a 3.9% clip while striking out 27.4% of the time. His strikeout rate was pushing 30% in the second half, contributing to Tampa Bay’s decision to give an increasing share of the reps to René Pinto.

Once the season came to a close, it became apparent Bethancourt would no longer be in the Rays’ plans. He was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $2.3MM salary if tendered a contract. While that’s not an outlandish figure, the Rays have a huge arbitration class and intended to look for a catching upgrade. Rather than wait until the non-tender deadline, they placed him on waivers a few weeks early.

Cleveland’s decision to place a claim indicates they’re likely to tender Bethancourt at that price. The Guardians have lefty-hitting Bo Naylor as their #1 option. Cleveland didn’t get much out of Cam Gallagher this year, though, making him a non-tender candidate. Bethancourt could take on the backup role as a righty-swinging complement to Naylor. Statcast pegs him as a below-average framer and blocker but credits him with excellent arm strength, a plus he has had dating back to his prospect days.

Bethancourt has between four and five years of service. He’d therefore be eligible for arbitration again next offseason if he holds his roster spot all year.

Justin Garza Elects Free Agency

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TODAY: Garza has cleared waivers and elected free agency, per Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe.

Nov 2: The Red Sox have sent reliever Justin Garza through outright waivers, reports Alex Speier of the Boston Globe (Twitter link). That clears a spot on the 40-man roster.

Boston claimed Garza off waivers from the Angels at the end of April. The right-hander made 17 appearances, tallying 18 1/3 innings. He allowed a 7.36 ERA with a modest 18.7% strikeout percentage while walking more than 13% of batters faced. Garza spent a bit more time at Triple-A Worcester, where he tossed 28 innings of 4.82 ERA ball.

The 29-year-old will have the ability to test minor league free agency. Garza owns a 3.98 ERA through 101 2/3 frames in parts of three seasons at Triple-A. He averaged around 95 MPH on his fastball and could find minor league interest as a depth option.

Yankees Select Carlos Narvaez

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The Yankees announced today that the club has selected the contract of catcher Carlos Narvaez. In addition, outfielders Franchy Cordero and Billy McKinney as well as right-handers Domingo German, Jimmy Cordero, Matt Bowman, and Ryan Weber have all elected free agency after rejecting outright assignments from earlier this week.

It’s an early birthday present for Narvaez, who turns 25 in a few weeks. A right-handed hitter, he signed with the Yankees as an amateur from Venezuela before the 2016 season. The cousin of Mets catcher Omar Narvaez, Carlos has spent the past seven years in the Yankee system. He didn’t reach Low-A until 2021 but has posted respectable numbers over the past couple years — albeit with a three true outcomes approach.

Narvaez opened this year in Double-A but spent the bulk of the season at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. He hit .240/.373/.387 with 10 home runs across 84 games for the RailRiders. Narvaez walked in a huge 15.3% of his plate appearances but struck out more than a quarter of the time. He has routinely posted strikeout rates approaching 30% in the minors, generally limiting his batting average.

The ability to draw free passes and bring some power from behind the plate is clearly still intriguing to the New York front office. Narvaez has spent parts of seven seasons in the minors, meaning he would have become a minor league free agent were he not added to the 40-man roster. He joins Kyle Higashioka, Jose Trevino, Ben Rortvedt and prospect Austin Wells in what has become a crowded catching mix. Narvaez can be sent to Triple-A for the foreseeable future, as he’ll be in his first of three minor league option years in 2024.

Phillies Decline Option On Scott Kingery

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TODAY: Kingery is still part of the Phillies organization despite the declined option, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber.  Kingery is still under team control on the initial minor league contract that he signed after he was first drafted, though it remains to be seen whether or not the Phillies might release him.

NOVEMBER 3: The Phillies announced they’ve declined their option on second baseman Scott Kingery. He’ll collect a $1MM buyout in lieu of a $13MM salary.

This was the most straightforward option call for any team this fall. Kingery spent the entire 2023 season at Triple-A Lehigh Valley after being outrighted from the 40-man roster in June 2022. He has played in only 16 MLB games since the start of the ’21 season.

A former second-round draftee, Kingery developed into a highly-regarded prospect. He signed a $24MM guarantee in Spring Training of 2018, shortly before making his MLB debut. The deal didn’t work at all for Philadelphia, as Kingery hasn’t consistently hit at the highest level. He owns a .229/.280/.387 line over 325 big league contests.

The Arizona product hit .244/.325/.400 in 466 plate appearances with Lehigh Valley this past season. He stole 24 bases and hit 13 home runs while striking out at a lofty 29% clip. He’s a free agent for the first time in his career. It’s possible he finds a minor league deal elsewhere. Kingery turns 30 in April.

2024 Draft Lottery Odds Finalized

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The conclusion of the 2023 season didn’t just bring the start of the offseason. It also finalized the lottery odds for the top picks in next summer’s amateur draft (h/t to Carlos Collazo of Baseball America).

As part of the Players Association’s efforts to reduce the incentive for non-competitive teams to lose games, the latest collective bargaining agreement introduced a lottery to determine the top six overall selections. A team’s odds of landing a higher pick are still weighted in favor of the clubs with the worst records, although the three worst teams all have identical chances of landing the #1 selection. If two teams have the same record, the club with the worse record in the preceding season gets the better odds.

The odds aren’t simply the inverse of the previous year’s standings, however. One of the CBA’s anti-tanking measures is to limit how often a team can pick within the lottery. A teams that does not receive revenue sharing payments and landed a lottery pick in one draft is prohibited from picking higher than 10th the following season. Revenue sharing recipients cannot select above 10th if they had a lottery selection in the preceding two drafts.

That rules the Nationals out from selecting any higher than 10th next year. Washington is not a revenue sharing recipient and had the #2 pick (which it used on Dylan Crews) in 2023. Last summer’s other lottery teams were the Pirates, Tigers, Rangers, Twins and A’s. Texas and Minnesota are ineligible for a lottery selection after making the playoffs.

The lottery only comes into play for the first round of the draft. From the second round onwards, pick order is determined in inverse order of the prior season’s standings (aside from compensatory and competitive balance selections).

The odds for next year’s #1 selection are as follows:

  1. A’s (50-112): 18.3%
  2. Royals (56-106): 18.3%
  3. Rockies (59-103): 18.3%
  4. White Sox (61-101): 14.7%
  5. Cardinals (71-91): 8.3%
  6. Angels (73-89): 6.1%
  7. Mets (75-87): 4.3%
  8. Pirates (76-86, 62-100 in ’22): 3%
  9. Guardians (76-86, 92-70 in ’22): 2%
  10. Nationals (71-91): Ineligible
  11. Tigers (78-84, 66-96 in ’22): 1.6%
  12. Red Sox (78-84, 78-84 in ’22): 1.2%
  13. Giants (79-83): 1%
  14. Reds (82-80, 62-100 in ’22): 0.9%
  15. Padres (82-80, 89-73 in ’22): 0.7%
  16. Yankees (82-80, 99-63 in ’22): 0.6%
  17. Cubs (83-79): 0.4%
  18. Mariners (88-74): 0.2%

After the first six selections are drawn, the remainder of the first round will run in inverse order of the standings among the teams not awarded a lottery pick. The A’s will therefore pick no lower than 7th, the Royals no lower than 8th, and so on. A team with a record outside the bottom six would only be vaulted up if drawn into the top six, although they could move up marginally as teams in front of them fall based on their luxury tax status (as explained below).

The draft order for the remainder of the first round is determined by how far a team advances in the playoffs, its revenue sharing status, and its regular season record. These selections are fixed; a playoff team cannot move up via the lottery.

19. Marlins
20. Brewers
21. Rays
22. Blue Jays
23. Twins
24. Orioles
25. Dodgers
26. Braves
27. Phillies
28. Astros
29. Diamondbacks
30. Rangers

A final note: a team that exceeds the third tier of luxury penalization (set at $273MM in ’23) generally sees its top pick moved back by 10 spots. If that team lands a top six selection, then its second-highest selection is moved back by 10 spots. The Mets, Yankees and Padres are believed to have surpassed the $273MM mark. None of those teams made the playoffs, so they all have a chance — albeit a minimal one for the Padres and Yankees — at a lottery pick.

The drawing is held annually at the Winter Meetings. Collazo reports that this year’s iteration will take place on December 5 at 2:30 pm Central, but the results will be held back for two hours so MLB Network can televise them at 4:30. Baseball America published a Top 100 draft prospects list in July, with Wake Forest first baseman Nick Kurtz leading the class. Obviously, much can change when the amateur season plays out next spring.

A’s To Select Lazaro Armenteros

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The Athletics are selecting outfielder Lazaro Armenteros onto the 40-man roster, reports Martín Gallegos of MLB.com (X link). That’ll bump Oakland’s roster count to 37.

Armenteros was a high-profile amateur signee from Cuba seven years ago. The right-handed hitter was viewed at the time as a potential power-hitting regular, leading to a fair bit of hype preceding the 2016-17 international period. The A’s eventually landed Armenteros with a $3MM signing bonus.

That offensive potential has been undercut by huge strikeout tallies throughout his minor league career. Armenteros has punched out in more than 37% of his professional plate appearances. That’d be alarming for any prospect but is particularly concerning for a player whom most scouts project as a left fielder. His stock has dimmed considerably. Armenteros has twice gone unselected in the Rule 5 draft.

The 24-year-old had a generally solid season with Double-A Midland in 2023. He hit .248/.380/.464. Armenteros connected on 14 home runs while drawing walks at a massive 15.3% clip. Swing-and-miss remained an issue, though, as he punched out nearly a third of the time he stepped to the plate.

Oakland’s front office clearly remains intrigued by Armenteros’ physical tools. He has spent parts of seven seasons in the minors, meaning he would have qualified for minor league free agency on Monday if he weren’t on the 40-man roster. The A’s will keep that from happening. Armenteros has a full slate of options and would likely start next season in Triple-A if he holds the 40-man spot throughout the offseason.

Wade Miley Declines Mutual Option With Brewers

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Veteran starter Wade Miley is declining his end of a $10MM mutual option with the Brewers, reports Adam McCalvy of MLB.com (X link). It isn’t known if Milwaukee had accepted its end. In either event, he’ll receive a $1MM buyout and become a free agent.

Miley, 37 later this month, turned in solid results over 23 starts during his second stint with the Brew Crew. Signed to a $4.5MM guarantee last offseason, he worked 120 1/3 innings of 3.14 ERA ball. As is often the case with the soft-tossing southpaw, that success came in spite of a modest strikeout rate. While Miley punched out 16.1% of opposing hitters, he kept the ball on the ground at a solid 46.3% clip.

Despite the lack of missed bats, Miley had posted a sub-4.00 ERA in three straight seasons. He was limited by injury to only 37 innings in 2022. The year before that, he worked 163 frames of 3.37 ERA ball for the Reds. When healthy, he turns in solid results. The veteran had a pair of injured list stints this year on account of a lat strain and elbow discomfort but took the ball every fifth day from August on.

Milwaukee has one remaining option decision, a borderline call on outfielder Mark Canha. The club holds an $11.5MM provision with a $2MM buyout. They’ll need to make that call by Monday afternoon.

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