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29 Players Elect Free Agency

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October brings postseason play for a handful of teams and their fanbases. Just over two-thirds of the league is now in offseason mode after being eliminated, however. As the season comes to a close, a number of veterans will hit minor league free agency.

These players are separate from six-year MLB free agents, who’ll reach the open market five days after the conclusion of the World Series. Eligible minor leaguers can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season wraps up. These players were all outrighted off a team’s 40-man roster during the year and have the requisite service time and/or multiple career outrights necessary to reach free agency since they weren’t added back to teams’ rosters.

Electing free agency is the anticipated outcome for these players. There’ll surely be more to test the market in the coming weeks. We’ll offer periodic updates at MLBTR. The first group, courtesy of the transaction tracker at MiLB.com:

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Pitchers

Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants

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The Giants disappointed for a second straight year, finishing below .500 after flirting with Wild Card contention into the season’s final month. They fired their manager and head into the offseason in need of star talent to elevate a roster that has been built on solid depth but lacked impact players beyond its ace.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

2024 financial commitments (if all player options exercised): $104MM
Total future commitments: $222MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Non-tender candidates: None

Free Agents

The Giants have been a league average team for two consecutive seasons. They’ve been unable to build off their surprising 107-win campaign of 2021. Pressure is building for the organization to figure things out.

They already made one major change. San Francisco fired manager Gabe Kapler during the final weekend of the regular season. It was a surprising alteration of course, as chairman Greg Johnson had said just two weeks ago that both Kapler and president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi would be retained.

Instead, the organization decided a change was necessary. That’s perhaps related to some clubhouse discontent. Ace Logan Webb took a shot at the franchise as the season was winding down, saying the club needed “big changes” to create a “winning mentality” in 2024. Webb didn’t publicly call for a managerial change, to be clear, but Zaidi acknowledged the organization needed “to rethink everything” shortly before Kapler was fired (relayed by Danny Emerman of KNBR).

A common complaint among fans and occasionally heard from players is that the Giants had become too matchup-dependent. They’ve been among the sport’s most aggressive teams in platooning hitters. They took a flexible approach to the pitching staff, generally patching things together with openers and bullpen games behind their top two starters of Webb and Alex Cobb.

All of that was true in 2021, when it worked to great effect. Every major league team deploys those strategies to varying degrees. Yet it’s possible that whomever the Giants tab to lead the team prioritizes more consistent roles for players than existed under Kapler. Zaidi said last week the team hoped to have a new manager in place by the start of the free agent period.

By the time free agency gets underway, San Francisco will have more clarity about its payroll picture. The Giants seem likely to exercise a $10MM option to retain Cobb, who turned in a 3.87 ERA over 28 appearances. The veteran righty is headed for a second opinion on a balky left hip (via Maria Guardado of MLB.com). Perhaps that examination reveals a more serious injury that leads the club to reconsider the option, but if he’s healthy, the $8MM difference between the option price and the buyout is strong value.

San Francisco has no control over the other three option decisions on the table. Ross Stripling, Sean Manaea and Michael Conforto all have player provisions. Stripling’s and Manaea’s are valued at $12.5MM, while Conforto would make $18MM. Stripling has already declared he’ll opt in after a down first season in the Bay Area. The other two players could at least consider opting out in search of multi-year agreements. Manaea, who turned in a quietly strong second half working mostly in multi-inning relief, seems likelier to hit the market than Conforto — particularly if he wants a guaranteed rotation spot.

They’d join a handful of other notable impending free agents. Brandon Crawford has been the starting shortstop for over a decade. Crawford won four Gold Gloves, was an integral part of the 2012 and ’14 World Series teams, and finished fourth in NL MVP balloting during a resurgent 2021 campaign. He had a stellar run in San Francisco and earned a well-deserved ovation from the fanbase on the final day of the season. He hasn’t hit much over the last two years, though, leading the organization to likely move on.

Zaidi said yesterday the club viewed 22-year-old Marco Luciano as the frontrunner for the shortstop job. It’s a risky play, as Luciano has all of 32 games of experience above the Double-A level. He struck out at a near-30% clip through 242 trips to the plate in Double-A this year. Luciano has obvious power potential and a patient plate approach, but he’s likely to strike out a lot in his initial crack at major league pitching.

That’s suboptimal for a team that hopes to compete next season, although it’s also a testament to the weakness of the middle infield market. Free agency doesn’t offer any everyday shortstop options. There aren’t any locks to be made available in trade. Perhaps a non-tender or declined option (like the White Sox with Tim Anderson) or a surprising trade possibility (e.g. Tommy Edman, Willy Adames) changes the calculus. For now, Luciano appears the in-house favorite.

There’s a little more stability around the rest of the infield. Thairo Estrada is a quality second baseman. J.D. Davis received mixed reviews from public metrics for his defensive work at third base. He’s a good hitter who’s under arbitration control for one more season. Perhaps the Giants could float him in trade offers with Wilmer Flores on hand as another righty-hitting corner infielder. Retaining Davis and keeping Flores at first base/designated hitter would also be a fine outcome. Lefty-hitting LaMonte Wade Jr. picked up the bulk of the first base reps as part of a platoon with Flores.

San Francisco could have an opening at designated hitter. Joc Pederson hits the market for the second straight year. The Giants made Pederson a $19.65MM qualifying offer last winter, which he accepted. He’s ineligible for the QO this time around and wouldn’t be in consideration for it anyway after his offensive production dipped. Pederson is a capable left-handed platoon option at DH, but it’s a rather limited profile that inhibits the team’s defensive flexibility.

Zaidi indicated yesterday that upgrading the defense was one of the club’s biggest goals (via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area). Only the Rockies and Royals, who play in two of the sport’s most spacious home parks, have seen a higher percentage of batted balls fall for hits over the last two seasons. Oracle Park’s dimensions are tough to patrol as well, though few would consider the past couple Giants teams as being among the league’s most athletic.

Letting Pederson walk could aid the defense by freeing a few more DH at-bats for Conforto (if he returns) and/or Mitch Haniger. That clears corner outfield at-bats for Mike Yastrzemski and Austin Slater. Rookies Tyler Fitzgerald and Luis Matos are options to assume more center field reps in that regard, though the Giants could certainly look for more offense there — especially if they’re already counting on Luciano as an unproven shortstop.

There are few more obvious fits than San Francisco for Cody Bellinger. The Giants showed interest in Bellinger after he was non-tendered by the Dodgers last winter. The former MVP signed with the Cubs, had the rebound year he’d been seeking, and now seems set to land a contract in the $200-250MM range in his return trip to the open market. Bellinger is an above-average defensive center fielder who dramatically cut his strikeout rate this season. He doesn’t have the same power he had before 2020 shoulder surgery, but he’s a well-rounded player and one of the few star hitters available in free agency.

It’s a similar position in which San Francisco found itself last winter. They have a fair bit of position player depth but lack an impact player capable of anchoring a lineup. The Giants tried for Aaron Judge, only to see him return to the Yankees. They agreed to terms with Carlos Correa before the physical led them to nix the agreement. By the time the Correa deal collapsed, all the other star players had signed elsewhere.

While it’s little consolation to the fanbase after another middling season, missing out on Correa and Judge leaves the Giants with ample long-term payroll flexibility. Their 2024 commitments are more than $100MM south of the base luxury tax threshold. They have just over $40MM on the books beyond next season. There’s plenty of room for a splash, whether that’s Bellinger … or perhaps the market’s top free agent.

San Francisco was among the seven reported finalists for Shohei Ohtani during his first trip to the free agency six years ago. That process wasn’t about money so much as pitching the organization to the two-way star, as his earning power was capped by the bonus pool system for international amateurs. There’s no such limit this time around. Ohtani will almost certainly set the all-time contract record. Teams will still have to pitch themselves as legitimate contenders, but they’ll also have to put hundreds of millions on the table.

The Giants’ reported proposal around $360MM for Judge and agreement with Correa on what would have been a $350MM deal offer proof of concept they’re willing to spend on top-of-the-market talent. Yet Ohtani could find himself in another stratosphere altogether. Whether San Francisco ownership is willing to keep pace with potential bids from the Dodgers, Mets, Rangers and others is to be determined. It’s a similar question if San Francisco can legitimately market itself as a perennial contender to the expected AL MVP.

There could be a fair bit of pressure on the front office to land one of Ohtani or Bellinger. They’re the clear top two in free agency. San Francisco could ostensibly trade Davis to accommodate a nine-figure deal for Matt Chapman, though he’s less clear of an offensive cornerstone for a lineup that needs one.

The Giants are set behind the plate. While Patrick Bailey struggled offensively towards the end of the season, the former #13 overall pick rated as an excellent defender and showed legitimate power upside in the first half of his rookie campaign. He’s the clear long-term catcher. Rule 5 draftee Blake Sabol played well enough to hold the backup job.

That doesn’t leave much room for one-time second overall pick Joey Bart. The righty-hitting catcher has been mentioned as a trade candidate for a few seasons. He has yet to establish himself as a big league caliber hitter. Bart was drafted by the previous front office regime — Bailey was selected by Zaidi’s front office — and will be out of minor league options next spring. He’ll have to be on the major league roster or made available to other teams. It makes sense to move him this offseason, even though the return would be limited at this point.

Perhaps a team like the Marlins or Yankees would offer a potential back-of-the-rotation arm for Bart. San Francisco will need to add stability to the back of the staff. Webb is a legitimate #1 starter. Cobb, if healthy, is a quality mid-rotation piece.

The rest of the group is unsettled. Manaea could opt out. Stripling spent most of 2023 in the bullpen. Alex Wood is a free agent. Anthony DeSclafani is under contract for one more season but posted a 4.88 ERA in 19 appearances and didn’t pitch from late July onward thanks to a flexor strain.

Kyle Harrison and Keaton Winn reached the big leagues in 2023. The former is one of the sport’s most talented pitching prospects. He’s likely to hold a season-opening rotation spot after a promising debut in which he turned in a 4.15 ERA with solid strikeout and walk marks through his first seven starts. Winn had decent results in a hitter-friendly Triple-A environment and seems likely to start next season in a depth role.

Between DeSclafani’s elbow and the risk of any rookie (even one as talented as Harrison), the Giants need more rotation stability. That’d only become more pressing if Cobb is seriously injured. San Francisco has shied away from long-term free agent investments in starting pitching. Under Zaidi, they’ve targeted reclamation plays like DeSclafani, Kevin Gausman and Manaea. They took on some injury uncertainty with Carlos Rodón but limited that to a two-year, $44MM guarantee. After Gausman and Rodón had excellent seasons that put them in the nine-figure range, San Francisco moved on. While they signed Webb to a five-year contract extension, that’s quite a bit different than signing a top-of-the-market starter in free agency.

San Francisco may have to aim higher this offseason. Blake Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto are the best starters available beyond Ohtani, who won’t pitch until 2025. Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery should exceed the $110MM that Gausman received from the Blue Jays a couple years back. Sonny Gray might not be far off that mark.

The Giants could ostensibly make a run at Bellinger and one of those starters. San Francisco had an Opening Day player payroll around $187MM this past season, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They’ve topped $200MM in the past. They’d have only $112MM in guaranteed commitments for next year if all of Conforto, Stripling and Manaea opt in and they retain Cobb.

A strong arbitration class could tack on another $30MM, but that still leaves around $40MM in spending room. A trade of an arbitration-eligible player like Davis or Yastrzemski and/or an opt-out from Manaea would make two large free agent pickups realistic even if the organization kept payroll around this year’s level. If they chose to stick with their traditional tack of shorter-term rotation adds, the likes of Kenta Maeda, Seth Lugo and Michael Lorenzen could offer some stability. Frankie Montas or Luis Severino would be traditional Giants-style reclamation adds.

They’ll likely need to add bullpen depth as well. Jakob Junis, John Brebbia and Scott Alexander are all headed to free agency. While none of that trio is a household name, they turned in a combined 172 2/3 innings of 4.12 ERA ball this past season. That’s acceptable middle relief volume that’ll need to be replaced.

The Giants have Camilo Doval in the ninth inning. Submariner Tyler Rogers is an effective setup option. Last winter’s signees Taylor Rogers and Luke Jackson were fine in year one. The Giants have high-leverage options but could identify a middle relief target or two on a short-term free agent deal.

There are a lot of ways in which the offseason could go. Zaidi confirmed this week that he’s in the final season of his contract as he enters his sixth year leading baseball operations. There’s clearly increasing urgency to secure a star player and, more importantly, push a fine but unexceptional roster back to playoff contention. The first order of business is finding a new manager. Once the winter rolls around, the goal should be to add a franchise player.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Giants-centric chat on 10-04-23. Click here to view the transcript.

Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

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The Reds made a surprising playoff push just one year removed from a 100-loss season. While they came up short in the final weekend, the influx of young talent reintroduced a jolt of excitement to the organization. They’re no longer upstarts. To take the next step, they’ll need to address the pitching staff.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Hunter Greene, RHP: $50MM through 2028 (including buyout of ’29 club option)

Option Decisions

  • Team holds $20MM option on 1B Joey Votto ($7MM buyout)
  • $4MM mutual option between team and C Curt Casali ($750K buyout)

Additional Financial Commitments

2024 financial commitments: $16.25MM
Total future commitments: $63.25MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Non-tender candidates: Senzel, Law, Dunn, Gutierrez

Free Agents

Few outside the Cincinnati organization expected the Reds to hang in the playoff mix all season. They made a rapid jump from clear rebuilder to potential Wild Card team as they graduated a number of talented young players, largely on the position player side.

There’s more reason for optimism than there has been entering each of the previous two offseasons. Ownership is clearly happy with the organizational direction. The Reds signed manager David Bell to a three-year extension in July. Last week, they promoted front office head Nick Krall from GM to president of baseball operations in conjunction with an extension of undisclosed length. Brad Meador received the general manager title, solidifying him as the #2 executive.

The focus now turns to the roster. Cincinnati’s first offseason decision is a straightforward one, though it could mark the symbolic end of a previous era in franchise history. The guaranteed portion of Joey Votto’s 10-year, $225MM extension has wrapped up. The Reds will obviously opt for a $7MM buyout in lieu of a $20MM club option, sending Votto to the open market for the first time in his career. The $13MM price point is beyond what a 40-year-old first baseman coming off a second straight middling offensive season could find in free agency.

Votto, of course, has constructed a strong Hall of Fame case during his 17 years in Cincinnati. He won the 2010 NL MVP and finished in the top three in balloting on two more occasions. He’s a career .294/.409/.511 hitter who ranks 93rd in major league history having reached base 3581 times, the highest mark for any active player. Votto is one of the greatest players in franchise history and among the most productive first basemen ever.

It’s not a guarantee that Votto’s time in Cincinnati is complete. The six-time All-Star has thus far been noncommittal about whether he’ll continue his playing career. After Sunday’s season finale, he told the beat he “just (doesn’t) have an answer yet” about his future (link via Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer). The Reds could certainly look to bring him back on a cheaper one-year pact if he wants to return for an 18th season.

While Votto is a franchise icon, the Reds aren’t facing the loss of much 2023 on-field production from any of their impending free agents. They’ll decline their end of a $4MM mutual option on backup catcher Curt Casali. Third backstop Luke Maile heads back to the open market, though the Northern Kentucky native would probably be open to another cheap one-year pact to stick with the Reds if they wanted to keep him as the #2 catcher.

Cincinnati got surprisingly little from that position this past season. Tyler Stephenson entered the year as one of the game’s most promising young catchers. The Reds hoped that more time divided between catching and designated hitter would keep him healthy after a series of fluke injuries impacted his ’22 campaign. That proved to be the case, but Stephenson didn’t hit well. Over a career-high 517 plate appearances, he managed only a .242/.317/.378 line — well off the .296/.369/.454 pace he carried into the year.

He hit the ball reasonably hard, although his grounder rate spiked dramatically in the second half. Stephenson was one of the few controllable position players who underperformed expectations. Given his pre-2023 track record and a weak free agent catching class, the Reds probably give him another chance as the #1 option. They’ll need to sign at least one backup, whether Maile or a similar player.

Cincinnati is unlikely to make many additions on the infield dirt. They have a deep collection of young talent. Spencer Steer can play any of the corner spots on the diamond and saw limited action at second base. He is not a great defender anywhere but hit his way into the lineup across multiple positions. It’s a similar story with Christian Encarnacion-Strand, another rookie corner infielder who joined the Reds in the lopsided Tyler Mahle trade with Minnesota.

Steer is the more complete hitter at this point, while Encarnacion-Strand covered for middling plate discipline with plus power. They both managed above-average results in their first extended looks at big league arms — Steer had struggled in a cup of coffee on the 2022 team — and look like potential middle-of-the-order bats from the right side. Encarnacion-Strand saw the bulk of his time at first base and DH down the stretch.

That’s in part because he isn’t a great third base defender, though it also hints at the amount of up-the-middle talent the Reds possess. Matt McLain had arguably the best rookie campaign of any Cincinnati player, hitting .290/.357/.507 with 16 homers in 89 games before a season-ending oblique injury. He seized the primary shortstop job. That pushed Elly De La Cruz and Noelvi Marte — both of whom came up primarily as shortstop prospects — to the hot corner.

Marte also raked in a 35-game sample after his promotion in late August. The results were mixed on De La Cruz, who showed the tantalizing physical gifts that made him an arguable top five prospect but also the concerning plate discipline profile that left some evaluators cautious.

De La Cruz concluded his rookie year with a .235/.300/.410 slash through 427 trips. He hit 13 home runs, stole 35 bases and showed top-of-the-scale arm strength with regularity. Yet his overall defensive ratings were mixed and he struck out in more than a third of his plate appearances. After a scorching start, he had a rough second half. It was still an impressive showing for a 21-year-old at the major league level. There’s star potential for anyone with this combination of raw power, speed and arm talent — particularly with a switch-hitter who can play on the left side of the infield. De La Cruz’s consistency was behind that of most of his rookie teammates, though.

It’s hard to imagine the Reds starting De La Cruz back in Triple-A to begin next season. They’ll need a spot for McLain, however, and Marte certainly didn’t play his way down. There’s also an incentive for the Reds to carry Marte, who retains his rookie eligibility, on next year’s Opening Day roster. If they carry him for a full service year and he wins Rookie of the Year, they’d receive an extra draft choice via the Prospect Promotion Incentive.

That surplus is before getting to the player who was Cincinnati’s best position player not too long ago: second baseman Jonathan India. The 2021 Rookie of the Year hit .244/.338/.407 in 529 trips to the plate. That’s league average production, his second straight season in that range. While India started the season strong, his offense dipped by June. He lost a good portion of the second half battling plantar fasciitis in his left foot.

India consistently receives below-average grades from public metrics for his second base defense. It’s a bat-first profile and he hasn’t hit especially well since his debut campaign. There’s an argument he should be the odd one out of the very talented infield. His name surfaced in a trade rumor around the deadline, though subsequent reports quickly shot down the likelihood of Cincinnati moving him.

While the 26-year-old again stands as an on-paper trade candidate, there’s no guarantee the Reds will seriously consider offers. India is one of the more experienced players on a very young roster and multiple Cincinnati players have suggested he’s a key figure in the clubhouse. India conceded he was affected by the speculation he’d be dealt around the deadline, even taking a game off for a mental reset. The Reds may not want to move him, especially since his trade value is at its lowest ebb during his major league career. Between his defensive grades and middling offense over the final few months, India isn’t likely to bring back an above-average starting pitcher with multiple years of club control — even in a down free agent infield class.

Former #2 overall pick Nick Senzel opened the season at third base after struggling in center field in prior years. He started the year strong, at least against left-handed pitching, but his bat tailed off in the second half. Cincinnati sent him down for a couple weeks in August. While he finished the season on the big league roster, there’s a good chance he’s traded for a minimal return or simply non-tendered.

If the Reds hold the rest of their infielders, that could push Steer into the corner outfield. He’d likely play left field on most days. Will Benson and Jake Fraley each had strong results as left-handed hitting corner outfielders. The Reds shielded both players from left-handed pitching. Even with Steer seeing outfield reps, there’s room for a right-handed platoon bat.

Cincinnati brought in Hunter Renfroe and Harrison Bader off waivers as stopgaps in late August. Renfroe was quickly released, while Bader seems likely to sign with a team that can offer everyday center field reps. Someone like Robbie Grossman or Aaron Hicks — both switch-hitters who are better against lefty pitching — could make sense to fill that role. Grossman is likely to sign a one-year deal worth a few million dollars. Hicks is available to every club at the league minimum salary after being released by the Yankees, so his camp will sort through a number of offers at the same price in search of the ideal team fit.

TJ Friedl doesn’t receive the same amount of attention as his younger teammates, but he played at an All-Star level (.279/.352/.467 with 18 homers) in center field this year. He’s an excellent contact hitter with plus speed and solid defense. Friedl is somewhat quietly a very valuable player, one whom Bell can comfortably plug into a top-two spot in the lineup as a table-setter.

At age 28 and under club control for five more seasons, Friedl is unlikely to be an extension candidate. The Reds could have interest in trying to get a deal done with one or more of their early-mid 20s hitters. Steer is under control for five seasons. De La Cruz, McLain, Marte and Encarnacion-Strand are all controllable for six more years. Extensions for players with less than one year of MLB service are rare but not unheard of.

Ronald Acuña, Wander Franco and Corbin Carroll all signed nine-figure pacts before their first full year in the big leagues. Eloy Jiménez and Luis Robert signed in the $50MM range before making their MLB debuts. The Reds don’t have anyone who’s yet established at the Acuña, Franco or Carroll level. Those players were all consensus top five prospects who’d found immediate MLB success. Something around Robert’s $50MM could be a reasonable proposal to De La Cruz or Marte if the Reds are interested in buying out two or three free agent seasons. McLain might be a trickier player to value, since he had more initial success than De La Cruz but wasn’t as highly-regarded as a prospect, but he’s also a potential candidate. Willingness to sign an early-career extension varies by player. It’s at least something the front office could consider.

It’s a little less stable on the pitching staff. They signed Hunter Greene to a $50MM guarantee in April. That’s their only contractual commitment outside of option buyouts, leaving open the possibility for more long-term deals. Something in the $50MM range also made sense for southpaw Nick Lodolo preseason. He’s coming off a year derailed by left shin injuries, so the Reds will probably wait on a long-term pact until he’s back on the mound.

24-year-old Andrew Abbott put himself in the conversation alongside Greene and Lodolo as potential rotation cornerstones. The 6’0″ southpaw turned in a 3.87 ERA through his first 21 major league starts, striking out 26.1% of opponents in the process. It’s a little early to consider Abbott an extension candidate — teams tend to wait on starting pitchers until they have a year-plus of service time — but he is clearly in the ’24 rotation and could be the Opening Day starter.

Adding a mid-rotation veteran should be the front office’s main priority. Greene and Lodolo battled injuries and inconsistency. Abbott set a career mark with 163 1/3 innings between the minors and big leagues this summer. Graham Ashcraft eats innings but had an up-and-down season. While Brandon Williamson found his stride nicely in the second half of his rookie campaign, his minor league track record is mixed. Journeyman Ben Lively faded after a nice start. Prospect Connor Phillips has huge stuff and whiff rates but control woes that lead some evaluators to point to a possible bullpen future.

The Reds can’t go into next year counting on each of Abbott, Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft and Williamson to hold a spot all season. They’ll need more depth than they had this year, when they gave Luke Weaver 21 starts and turned to Lively and Luis Cessa a combined 18 times.

Cincinnati has spent less than $15MM in free agency in each of the last two offseasons. There’s no reason for that to continue given the clean payroll outlook. The contracts for Votto and Mike Moustakas are off the books aside from option buyouts. They have just over $16MM in 2024 commitments at present. It’s a solid but hardly overwhelming group of arbitration-eligible players.

The Reds aren’t going to make a play for Blake Snell or NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto. It’s difficult to project them as a candidate to top $100MM on Jordan Montgomery and Aaron Nola given their spending habits. Yet they’ve shown a willingness to go into the middle tier of the free agent market in prior offseasons, guaranteeing $64MM each to Moustakas and Nick Castellanos.

Old friend Sonny Gray will probably stretch beyond that number and cost a draft choice after rejecting a qualifying offer. Eduardo Rodriguez cannot receive the QO and could be available on a four-year pact in the $70-80MM range if he opts out of his deal with the Tigers. Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha are possibilities on a two or three-year deal.

Cincinnati could add a starter in free agency while also looking to the trade market. India could return a back-end type, even if he’s unlikely to get the ball rolling for someone like Dylan Cease or Logan Gilbert. Dealing any of McLain, Steer, Encarnacion-Strand, Marte or De La Cruz ranges from unlikely to ’not happening,’ but they’d all have ample trade appeal. Perhaps the major league infield depth frees them to explore possibilities involving prospects Edwin Arroyo or Cam Collier for controllable rotation help.

They’ll also likely add in the bullpen. Cincinnati has a few solid arms but it’s a roughly average relief group overall. It’s anchored by All-Star closer Alexis Díaz. Deadline pickup Sam Moll is a good ground-ball lefty. Low-cost additions of Alex Young and Ian Gibaut have added middle relief depth. Fernando Cruz, Lucas Sims and Tejay Antone can all miss bats at a high level, although Cruz and Sims have scattershot command and Antone has battled forearm problems. Buck Farmer, who was second on the team with 75 relief innings, is headed to free agency.

Cincinnati won’t be in on Josh Hader, but they have the financial room to play in the lower to middle tiers. Jordan Hicks, Joe Jiménez, old friend Robert Stephenson and Pierce Johnson are all likely to land multi-year deals. Players like Ryne Stanek or Keynan Middleton could be available as one or cheaper two-year fliers.

Given the young talent on the roster and the payroll space, there’s more opportunity for the front office to add than has existed in quite some time. It’s an exciting time for Reds’ fans again. They were ahead of schedule in 2023 and came up a little bit short of the postseason. Next year’s team should have legitimate playoff aspirations from day one. It’s up to the front office to add the pitching necessary to make that happen.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Reds-centric chat on 10-04-23. Click here to view the transcript.

Angels Part Ways With Phil Nevin

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The Angels are making a managerial change. As first reported by Sam Blum of the Athletic (on Twitter), the club has decided not to retain Phil Nevin, whose one-year contract expired at season’s end. General manager Perry Minasian is scheduled to hold a press conference tomorrow, which appears to indicate he’ll retain his position.

Nevin spent a season and a half at the helm. The 52-year-old took over on an interim basis when the club dismissed Joe Maddon in June 2022. At the end of that season, the Halos signed him to a one-year extension and removed the interim tag. It essentially served as a trial run for Nevin, who’d only joined Maddon’s coaching staff heading into the ’22 campaign.

Unfortunately for Nevin and the organization, the 2023 season played out in largely the same disappointing fashion as it had in prior years. Los Angeles made a run at competing in their final season with Shohei Ohtani under arbitration control. They started reasonably well, playing slightly above .500 ball in each of the first four months. An 8-3 run coming out of the All-Star Break led the front office to push further in a win-now direction, dealing top prospect Edgar Quero as part of a package for Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López. That pushed the Halos past the luxury tax barrier for the first time in two decades.

Almost immediately after that deal, the Halos’ postseason expectations crumbled. They lost seven straight from deadline day onwards, burying them in the standings. By the end of August, the Angels had placed a host of veterans (Giolito and López included) on waivers in hopes of dipping back below the tax threshold. It remains unclear if that effort was successful. Los Angeles would go just 17-36 in the season’s final two months, concluding with a 73-89 record that exactly matched last year’s mark. They dropped to fourth place in the AL West.

On the heels of that kind of collapse, it’s not surprising to see the team make a managerial change — particularly with Nevin’s brief contract having already expired. At the same time, it’s hard to know how much of the blame falls on the manager. The Halos have rapidly churned through dugout leaders without success. Nevin was their fourth manager since 2018 alone.

Longtime skipper Mike Scioscia stepped down at the end of the ’18 campaign. Brad Ausmus was at the helm for 2019. The Angels fired him when Maddon became available, but he only made it through two and a half seasons. None of those skippers oversaw even one winning record. The Angels haven’t finished above .500 since 2015 and are tied with the Tigers for the longest active playoff drought at nine years.

That’s made worse by an uncertain, arguably bleak, future. The Angels face the potential loss of Ohtani this offseason. Even if they manage to re-sign him on what’d almost certainly be the largest contract in major league history, he’s unlikely to pitch for all of next season. Mike Trout played one game from July 4 onward due to a hamate fracture. Anthony Rendon’s backloaded contract pays him $38MM annually for three more years. The farm system is among the thinnest in MLB, as the Angels have aggressively pushed players to the majors and traded prospect talent in order to address short-term deficiencies on the roster.

The Halos aren’t devoid of positives, of course. Trout remains one of the game’s best hitters when healthy, even if his production took a step back from MVP level to merely excellent. Shortstop Zach Neto and catcher Logan O’Hoppe look like regulars. Nolan Schanuel had an impressive rookie showing considering he jumped to the majors within a month of being drafted out of Florida Atlantic, where he was generally facing mid-major college pitching. He’ll eventually need to demonstrate more power, but running a .402 on-base percentage through 29 major league contests within that context is remarkable. Patrick Sandoval and Reid Detmers remain promising controllable rotation pieces.

Overall, that’s still a below-average collection of organizational talent. The Angels face an uphill battle ascending beyond any of Houston, Texas or Seattle in the AL West — particularly if Ohtani were to land elsewhere. It’ll be a challenging position for whomever the Halos tab to lead the dugout. The Angels join the Mets and Giants as teams that have moved on from their manager in recent days. The Guardians will need to replace Terry Francona — who has all but officially announced his retirement — leaving four current vacancies around the league.

As for Nevin, he should be able to find a position on another major league staff this winter. While his initial foray into major league managing wasn’t successful, the former infielder has a decade and a half of coaching experience. He previously managed in the Tigers’ and Diamondbacks’ systems and has been on a big league staff since 2017. Nevin spent a year as the third base coach for the Giants, held the same position with the Yankees for five seasons, and was the Halos’ third base coach before replacing Maddon.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Rich Hill Considering Joining Team Midway Through 2024 Season

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Veteran left-hander Rich Hill heads back to the open market in a few weeks. Despite a rough second half, he’d at least find minor league offers as he looks to extend his MLB career to a 20th year.

Hill might not sign over the winter, however. While he’d previously expressed an intent to play in 2024, the 43-year-old (44 in March) now tells Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune he’s giving some thought to waiting until midway through the campaign before joining a new team.

It’s an atypical tack but one Hill has considered before. Last August, he told Rob Bradford of WEEI he was thinking about something similar for the 2023 season. The southpaw didn’t ultimately pursue it — he signed an $8MM deal with the Pirates just after Christmas — but that possibility is back on the table this winter.

There are a few reasons behind Hill’s decision-making. The most straightforward one is health. MLB’s oldest active player, Hill conceded to Acee he has “a pretty good gauge and a monitor on my body” and considers “half a season … much more palatable than a full season.” Hill also pointed to a desire to spend more time with his family, noting that he’d like to watch his 12-year-old son play during his final year of Little League baseball next spring. By waiting until midseason, he’d also have a chance to survey the competitive landscape and look to land a spot with a playoff contender.

Hill’s performance also suggests he could be better suited for a lighter role. His production dipped in the second half, especially after a deadline trade from Pittsburgh to San Diego. Hill carried a 4.76 ERA through 22 starts with the Bucs, reasonable production for a fifth or sixth starter. He was tagged for 8.23 earned runs per nine during his two months in Southern California, serving up eight homers in only 27 1/3 frames of work.

The Padres knocked Hill out of the rotation after five starts. They placed him on waivers in an unsuccessful attempt to shed the last few weeks of his salary. He remained in their bullpen after going unclaimed, working mostly low-leverage relief. Hill found more success in a very limited look in that capacity, turning in a 2.25 ERA with an above-average 26.5% strikeout rate in his final four appearances.

Despite the solid last few games, Hill’s subpar results early in his time with San Diego contributed to a lackluster 5.41 ERA through 146 1/3 frames. That’s more than a run higher than last season’s 4.27 figure and his highest mark since his remarkable late-career resurgence with the 2015 Red Sox.

Julio Teheran Elects Free Agency

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TODAY: Teheran rejected the outright assignment and opted for free agency, according to MILB.com’s transactions page.

OCTOBER 2: The Brewers sent righty Julio Teheran outright to Triple-A Nashville, according to the transaction log at MLB.com. Milwaukee had designated the veteran for assignment last week.

Teheran going unclaimed on waivers was a virtual lock. He is headed back to free agency at season’s end and would not have been eligible for postseason play with another team. There was no incentive for anyone else to claim him. Teheran has more than enough experience to reject the assignment and hit the open market a couple weeks early, though he could elect to stick with the organization on the chance they’d decide to call upon him during a playoff run.

The 32-year-old signed a big league contract with Milwaukee in May. It marked his return to the majors after spending 2022 in independent ball and the Mexican League. Teheran logged 71 2/3 innings across 14 appearances, his heaviest MLB workload since a 2019 season that marked the end of a nine-year run in Atlanta. He provided the Brew Crew with a 4.40 ERA, striking out a below-average 17.4% of opponents but limiting his walks to a meager 4.5% clip. Teheran should find some interest as a depth starter this offseason, though it might be limited to minor league offers.

Milwaukee will open their Wild Card Series against Arizona tomorrow with Corbin Burnes against rookie Brandon Pfaadt. They’d seemed set to turn to Brandon Woodruff to oppose Zac Gallen in Game 2 before the unfortunate revelation that Woodruff would miss the series (at least) with a shoulder issue. Their starter for Wednesday’s contest is still listed as TBD, though Freddy Peralta seems the likely choice. Wade Miley, Adrian Houser and Colin Rea would be the top options if the Brewers wanted to hold Peralta for a potential Game 3 matchup with Arizona’s Merrill Kelly.

Rockies Sign Charlie Blackmon To One-Year Extension

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The Rockies announced they’ve signed Charlie Blackmon to a one-year contract extension. He’ll return for a 14th season with the club in 2024. The ACES client receives a $13MM guarantee that offers an additional $2MM in incentives. Blackmon would receive $500K apiece for tallying 425, 450, 475 and 500 trips to the plate.

Blackmon has spent his entire career in Colorado. A second-round pick in 2009, he debuted two years later. By 2014, he’d established himself as a very good everyday center fielder. That season, Blackmon secured his first of four career All-Star nods. His best campaign came in 2017, when he finished fifth in NL MVP balloting and won the NL batting title. Colorado signed him to a $108MM extension the following April — including player options running through 2023.

The two-time Silver Slugger winner remained a well above-average hitter through 2019. He still hit above .300 during the shortened 2020 season, albeit with diminished power. Blackmon slumped to a .267/.332/.415 line between 2021-22, raising the possibility that this would be his final year in Denver. He exercised a $15MM option for this season and was set to hit the free agent market for the first time in the coming weeks.

Blackmon rebounded from his down couple seasons. Still working largely out of the leadoff spot, the 37-year-old has turned in a .283/.370/.451 slash through an even 400 plate appearances entering play Friday. He’s still not hitting for much power, but only Nolan Jones has more consistently gotten on base among Rox’s batters. Blackmon is drawing walks at a personal-best 9.8% clip while striking out just 13.5% of the time. He’s still performing well against pitchers of either handedness.

As one would expect for a player in his late-30s, Blackmon hasn’t provided much on the other side of the ball. The Rox moved him off center field after the 2018 season. Since logging 134 starts in right field two seasons ago, the veteran has seen increasing action at designated hitter. Skipper Bud Black has penciled him into the outfield on just 26 occasions while turning to him at DH 60 times.

Blackmon will presumably continue working as Colorado’s primary DH for another season. Jones has had a strong rookie year to take over left field. Kris Bryant was the primary right fielder early on, although he’s been a first baseman or DH since returning from a finger fracture. Bryant could move back to the outfield next season, which would allow the Rox to keep Blackmon out of the field on most days. If the Rockies keep their $182MM signee at first base, they could look to add a corner outfielder in free agency or trade over the winter.

It’s the second late-season extension for Colorado. The club agreed on a two-year, $20MM pact with starter Germán Márquez three weeks ago. Márquez underwent Tommy John surgery in May, so that move is primarily about 2025. This deal ensures veteran continuity for a young roster while keeping around a fan favorite who’s still a productive hitter — albeit in more of a rotational role than an everyday capacity. Reliever Brent Suter and depth starters Chris Flexen and Chase Anderson are the club’s remaining free agents.

Colorado had just over $98MM in guaranteed commitments for the ’24 campaign before re-signing Blackmon. The extension brings their commitments to around $111MM before considering arbitration-eligible players. They opened this year with a player payroll around $172MM, as calculated by Cot’s Baseball Contracts, so there should still be a decent amount of breathing room headed into the offseason.

At the same time, it’s a surprisingly strong sum for the Rox to commit. They’ll likely need to add at least three starting pitchers this offseason. Bullpen and/or center field help could be targets as well. Blackmon’s status in franchise history surely played a part in the deal, though it’s still above market expectations for a non-elite veteran hitter limited to a part-time DH/corner outfield role.

It’s a bit above the $10MM and $12MM respectively secured by J.D. Martinez and Michael Brantley last winter. Martinez indicated he took less than was available to join the Dodgers, while Brantley was coming off a season-ending shoulder procedure. Yet both players have been more productive hitters over the last few seasons than Blackmon has been. The Rockies are willing to go beyond what the veteran likely would’ve received as a free agent in order to ensure he’ll be back at Coors Field for another season.

MLBTR’s Steve Adams first reported the contract details.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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