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Reds Sign Nick Krall To Extension, Promote Him To President Of Baseball Operations

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The Reds have locked in their front office leadership. The club announced they’ve promoted Nick Krall from general manager to president of baseball operations. He also receives a contract extension of undisclosed length, tweets C. Trent Rosecrans of the Athletic. Meanwhile, Brad Meador has been promoted from assistant GM to general manager, solidifying him as the #2 person in the front office hierarchy.

“Nick has a great baseball mind and has shown exceptional leadership in advancing every aspect of our baseball operations,” CEO Bob Castellini said in a statement. “Nick and his staff have earned our confidence, and these moves help ensure the positive momentum will continue across the organization.”

Krall has led baseball operations for three seasons. The 45-year-old took the reigns when former president Dick Williams stepped away at the end of the 2020 campaign. Krall already held the GM title at that point, though as is the case with many front offices around the game, that came with the #2 role in the front office. Williams’ resignation pushed Krall to the top while he retained the GM title.

While he’s only been leading baseball operations for a few seasons, Krall has spent two decades with the organization. He began working as a scout in the early 2000’s and secured a front office position within a few years. The Reds promoted him to GM under Williams in May 2018.

Krall took control of the front office at an inflection point for the franchise. Cincinnati had targeted 2020 to emerge from their last rebuild. They went a little above .500 in the shortened season and were swept in the first round. They hovered around league average for the entire ’21 campaign, missing out on the playoffs after holding a Wild Card spot into September. At that point, the organization slashed payroll, kicking off another rebuild.

Cincinnati’s 2022 campaign was disastrous. The Reds lost 100 games for the second time in franchise history. After another quiet offseason, they entered this year with middling expectations. Cincinnati has surprisingly been one of the sport’s most improved teams. Barring a sweep this weekend at the hands of the Cardinals, they’ll finish with a winning record. They’re still in playoff contention in the season’s final few days, although they’d likely need to sweep St. Louis and get some help from both the Marlins and Cubs to qualify.

Much of that turnaround is attributable to a youth movement involving players acquired during their 2021-22 sell-off. Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand came over from the Twins in the Tyler Mahle deal at last summer’s deadline, arguably Krall’s best move to date. Noelvi Marte, the headliner of the Luis Castillo trade, is holding his own at the major league level as a 21-year-old. Brandon Williamson has turned in back-of-the-rotation results since being acquired in the Jesse Winker/Eugenio Suárez deal.

Matt McLain and Andrew Abbott — two of Cincinnati’s first four selections in the 2021 draft — are among the best rookie performers in the National League. Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo were selected while Williams was still leading the front office, though Krall was surely involved in those decisions as the #2 executive.

While there’s little question about the organization’s ability to stockpile young talent, it remains to be seen how effectively Krall and his staff can push the team to the next level. Cincinnati didn’t land the starting pitching they were seeking at this summer’s trade deadline. The likeliest outcome is that they’ll miss the playoffs for a third straight season. There’s plenty to like about the organization’s direction, making it unsurprising the Reds are committed to both Krall and fifth-year manager David Bell — who signed an extension running through 2026 in late July. They’ll no longer be a surprising upstart, however. Even if they fall shy of the postseason this year, next year’s club will have the highest expectations of Krall’s tenure atop baseball operations.

Meador, 48, has been atop the scouting and player development departments. He has been a member of the organization’s scouting group since 2009. Meador has surely played a key role in the selections of players like McLain, Abbott, Greene and Lodolo, as well as the signing of TJ Friedl as an undrafted free agent in 2016.

Promotions like this are fairly common in advance of the offseason. Teams typically grant employees permission to speak with other teams about job opportunities only if the other club is offering a higher position. By promoting Meador to GM, the Reds foreclose the possibility of losing him to another team that could’ve considered him as a candidate for the #2 job in their front office — presumably rewarding the longtime executive with a pay bump in the process.

Kiley McDaniel of ESPN first reported the promotions.

Zaidi: Giants Hopeful Of New Managerial Hire By Start Of Free Agency

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The Giants made a significant change this afternoon, firing skipper Gabe Kapler as his fourth season at the helm was coming to a close. Bench coach Kai Correa will serve as the interim manager for the final series against the Dodgers.

President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi spoke with reporters after Kapler’s dismissal. He indicated the front office’s preference is to have a new hire in place by the beginning of the free agent period (link via Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle). That starts five days after the conclusion of the World Series.

“It’s a pretty universal trait that you want a manager who players want to play for, whether it’s young players and getting them motivated to get the most out of them or free agents who have heard your manager has a good reputation,” Zaidi told the S.F. beat. “I think that’s going to matter a lot.”

Zaidi did not indicate that Kapler’s presence as manager was harmful to the team’s free agent pursuits, to be clear. Yet he noted the club had decided to look for “new and different leadership in our clubhouse, a different dynamic there.” After making the call to move on from Kapler, it’s understandable they’d prefer to have a new manager in place as they try to sell the organization to upcoming free agent targets.

Over his five-year tenure leading baseball operations, Zaidi and his staff have come up short on multiple pursuits of top-of-the-market talents. They pursued Bryce Harper over the 2018-19 offseason but reportedly balked at the long-term offer he was seeking (and eventually found from Philadelphia). San Francisco made a run at Aaron Judge last winter but came up short when the defending MVP returned to the Yankees on a record-setting deal. They agreed to terms on a $350MM pact with Carlos Correa, only for that to fall through on the physical.

The Giants have been active in the middle tiers of free agency but haven’t signed a guarantee larger than the $44MM Carlos Rodon deal under Zaidi. With roughly $110MM in guaranteed money on the books for next season, San Francisco could try again to land a top-of-the-market player. They’ll surely be among the teams courting Shohei Ohtani, while Cody Bellinger could be a fallback target if Ohtani heads elsewhere. San Francisco had interest in Bellinger — with whom Zaidi is familiar from their time with the Dodgers — before he signed with the Cubs on a $17.5MM bounceback deal last offseason. After an excellent rebound campaign, Bellinger seems in line to top $200MM on his next free agent trip.

D-Backs Release Zach Davies

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The Diamondbacks have released veteran righty Zach Davies, per the transaction log at MLB.com. That was expected after the Snakes designated him for assignment on Wednesday.

Davies spent two years in Arizona. He turned in a 4.09 ERA through 27 starts last season after signing a $1.5MM free agent deal coming out of the lockout. While that came with middling strikeout and walk numbers, he provided stable enough innings out of the fifth spot in the rotation on a generally young pitching staff.

That secured him a raise when he re-signed with the Snakes in January. Davies landed a $5MM guarantee taking the form of a $4.7MM salary and a $300K buyout on a mutual option for 2024. He tacked on another $950K in incentives and added $200K to the option buyout by topping 16 starts, meaning he’ll collect $6.15MM overall. Arizona will remain on the hook for the buyout once he officially clears release waivers.

Davies will likely be limited to minor league offers this winter. The 30-year-old is coming off a career-worst season, allowing exactly seven earned runs per nine through 82 1/3 frames. His 19.1% strikeout rate is actually his best mark since 2020, though it’s still a few points below league average. The nine-year MLB veteran walked just over 10% of batters faced while allowing hard contact on an elevated 42.4% of batted balls.

Rangers Place Jon Gray On Injured List

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The Rangers placed starter Jon Gray on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to September 28, with forearm tightness. Jake Latz is up from Triple-A to take the open spot on the active roster.

Gray left his start in Anaheim on Monday with the injury. It’ll take him out of consideration for the first two rounds of the playoffs. Texas is one win away from securing a playoff berth. They’re up two games on the Astros for the AL West lead with three to play. Even after last night’s walk-off loss in Seattle, they remain the favorite to take the division — which would lock in a bye past the Wild Card series.

Texas would have to make it to the ALCS for Gray to be a potential factor. The 15 days rules him out until October 13, which would be the fifth game of a Division Series. The Rangers could technically reinstate Gray if they’re playing in a decisive Game 5, though that’d require an injury to another player and presumably be too risky for the club even if it were feasible.

It’s not clear if Gray would’ve been in the playoff rotation even were he healthy. Jordan Montgomery would very likely get the first game. Nathan Eovaldi and Dane Dunning could fill the rest of a three-man rotation. Gray has been a consistent presence throughout the season, yet his production has tailed off. He has a 5.32 ERA since the All-Star Break and is allowing over six earned runs per nine this month.

Gray joins Max Scherzer as injured Rangers’ starters hoping for a potential return deep into a postseason run. Scherzer has been sidelined by a terse major strain for the past few weeks.

Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

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The Cardinals entered the year expected to compete for another NL Central title. Instead, they’re on track for their first 90-loss season in more than three decades. They’re going to make another push for contention this winter, with no secret about a forthcoming pursuit of rotation help.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

  • None

2024 financial commitments: $108MM
Total future commitments (not including deferrals): $264.5MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Non-tender candidates: Hudson, Barnes, Knizner, Woodford

Free Agents

It didn’t take long to become clear the Cardinals weren’t going to meet preseason expectations. St. Louis started slowly, rebounded somewhat in May, then fell firmly out of the playoff picture with an 8-15 showing in June. They were positioned as deadline sellers by the All-Star Break.

That’s largely on account of a well below-average run prevention group. The club’s typically excellent defense regressed. Willson Contreras was briefly moved to designated hitter then returned to catcher in a bizarre saga early into the first season of his five-year free agent deal. Most concerning, the starting rotation simply wasn’t good enough to keep the Cardinals in games.

Adam Wainwright had the worst season of his career at age 41. The Cardinals understandably let him continue taking the ball in deference to his place in franchise history. He fortunately managed to hit the 200 win mark with a gem over the Brewers last week to close out his career. Wainwright’s contributions to the last two decades of Cardinal baseball are hard to overstate. He clearly didn’t have much left in the tank this season, though, meaning the Cards shouldn’t have much difficulty finding better production out of one their rotation spots.

They’ll need far more than to replace the outgoing Wainwright. St. Louis dealt impending free agents Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty at the deadline. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak said shortly thereafter that the club was hoping to fill all three vacated spots from outside the organization. They’d give looks to various younger hurlers to see if any would elevate their standing during the final six weeks. The expectation is nevertheless they’d need to add a trio of starters.

There’s an argument the Cardinals could use four new starting pitchers. Miles Mikolas is the one lock for a job. He’s miscast as a staff ace but has proven a very durable source of innings, starting 32+ games in four of the last five full seasons. He’s tallied 194 1/3 frames of 4.82 ERA ball this year. He’s had a rough second half, but he’ll get a chance to bounce back.

The rest of the group is uncertain. Steven Matz has underwhelmed in two seasons since signing a four-year free agent deal. The Cardinals kicked Matz to the bullpen for a spell midseason. He eventually returned to the rotation, turned in his best seven-start run as a Cardinal, then suffered a season-ending lat strain in mid-August. It would’ve been a lot easier to pencil him into next year’s rotation if he’d stayed healthy over the final six weeks.

St. Louis has otherwise cycled through pitchers who haven’t had much success at the MLB level. Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson and Drew Rom (acquired from the Orioles in the Flaherty trade) were all well-regarded prospects, to varying extents. Only Thompson has carried that over at the MLB level and that has mostly come in relief.

The Cards have given Thompson nine starts during the final couple months, during which he’s posted a 4.37 ERA with slightly better than average strikeout and walk rates. The former first-round pick has put the best case forward for a season-opening job out of that trio, yet he’ll be 26 in October and has all of 10 career major league starts. He’s probably not a lock either. Jake Woodford and Dakota Hudson have logged some innings without much success. Either could be non-tendered, with Hudson having a particularly tenuous hold on a roster spot heading into his third season of arbitration eligibility.

It’s clearly an insufficient group for a team hoping to return to contention. The Cards have never been huge free agent spenders, preferring to attack the trade market and re-sign the stars they acquire. They’ve yet to go past an $80MM guarantee for a free agent starter (Mike Leake), though they’ve notably been in the free agent bidding for some higher-profile names in the past (most notably, David Price. There’s a chance they set a new franchise record for free agent pitching investment this winter.

The Cardinals have roughly $108MM in guaranteed contracts for next season. The arbitration class will probably tack on a bit over $20MM. That’s still well shy of the $177MM range in which they opened the ’23 campaign. There’s room for a strike towards the upper end of the free agent market.

This winter’s class skews toward pitching. Beyond Shohei Ohtani (who won’t pitch next season), the rotation group is headlined by Blake Snell and NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto. That duo might wind up beyond the Cards’ spending range, but the next group of arms includes Montgomery, Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray and Eduardo Rodriguez (assuming he opts out of his deal with the Tigers). Montgomery and Nola are very likely to surpass nine figures, while Gray has a chance to do so. Any of that group would immediately be the best pitcher on the St. Louis staff. Rodriguez could beat the Leake guarantee as well.

Mozeliak and his front office will probably add a couple arms in free agency. Handing out the two biggest free agent guarantees for starters in franchise history in the same offseason might not be tenable. Looking further down the class, players like Seth Lugo, old friend Michael Wacha — if his options with the Padres are declined — and Kenta Maeda could offer stability. The Cards may prefer that to a rebound flier on Frankie Montas or Luis Severino, though they’d certainly have the opportunity to dangle a job to a riskier upside play if that’s a route they’d prefer.

Not all of the work has to be accomplished in free agency. The Cards were a team to watch at last summer’s deadline, with rumors of potential deals involving their young hitters to land a controllable starting pitcher. That didn’t materialize. The Cardinals were active, but their trades generally followed the same pattern: moving an impending free agent (Flaherty, Montgomery, Chris Stratton, Jordan Hicks, Paul DeJong) for upper minors talent, preferably pitching.

Speculation about dealing a big league position player could return. Former top prospect Dylan Carlson is the obvious candidate. He’d looked like the franchise center fielder after securing the position midway through the 2022 season. The switch-hitting Carlson hasn’t had the breakout offensive showing that many expected, however, settling in as a roughly league average bat over the past few years. Lars Nootbaar broke out late in ’22 to take hold of center field.

Rather than return Carlson to an everyday role in the corner outfield, they pushed him into more of a fourth outfield capacity. Top prospect Jordan Walker arrived at the major league level to man right field. Walker is already an above-average MLB hitter, though he’s one of the game’s worst defensive outfielders. Tyler O’Neill is a far better defender in left field. He has been up-and-down offensively while battling various injuries, but the Cards have maintained faith that he could recapture his 30-homer potential. They showed little interest in trading him and reportedly plan to give him the left field job to start his final year of club control.

That leaves St. Louis with a few decisions to make. They probably don’t want to consign the 21-year-old Walker to a full-time DH role. There’s no room for Walker on the corner infield, at least for one more season. Depending on how they handle second base, the Cards could need to keep the DH spot available for an infielder. They could retain Carlson as a fourth outfielder, likely passing on a chance to flip him for pitching talent in the process. Richie Palacios, acquired in a minor June trade with the Guardians, has played well enough in September to have a shot at sticking as a fourth outfielder.

Carlson is no longer going to return an impact controllable starter, but there’d still be interest — particularly in a thin market for center fielders. The Yankees expressed interest in Carlson at the deadline and could put Clarke Schmidt on the table, as a speculative possibility. Perhaps the Marlins are prepared to listen on 2021 All-Star Trevor Rogers after an injury-wrecked ’23 season. If the Cardinals hold Carlson, they could flip Alec Burleson on the heels of a down year. That’d mean selling low on a former top prospect with five years of remaining club control, though.

The middle infield is the other area where they could leverage their young talent in trade. Brendan Donovan and Nolan Gorman are very different players — Donovan is an excellent contact hitter, Gorman has potential 30+ homer power — but they’re each above-average MLB bats. Neither is a great defender at second base, but Gorman has improved at the position and Donovan can bounce around the diamond. Donovan missed most of the second half after undergoing flexor tendon surgery; he’s expected to be ready for Spring Training.

Each of Gorman and Donovan would have more trade value than Carlson. The Cardinals could keep both, rotating them between second base and designated hitter. Yet it’s possible they flip one for a controllable starting pitcher. Speculation about the Cardinals and Mariners lining up on a trade has abounded for months. Seattle certainly isn’t moving George Kirby, and they’d probably balk at dealing Logan Gilbert. They could offer Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo, though it’s debatable if that’s enough from the Cardinals’ perspective. The Marlins (Braxton Garrett) and Tigers (Reese Olson, Casey Mize, Sawyer Gipson-Long) could each float interesting young pitchers as part of a larger trade package.

Tommy Edman would generate a fair bit of interest himself. He’s a decent hitter who can seemingly play plus defense at every non-catching position. The Cardinals seem disinclined to move him given his defensive value, though they’ll surely receive some calls. It’s a dreadful free agent class for middle infield help, leaving teams like Detroit, Miami and the Giants without clear solutions at shortstop. Edman would be an upgrade for any of that trio.

That’d be an easier sell for St. Louis if top shortstop prospect Masyn Winn had hit the ground running. The 21-year-old has mustered only a .168/.233/.243 line in his first 33 big league contests. It doesn’t change his long-term outlook, since most players his age are at Double-A or below. Yet it suggests Winn is probably ticketed for Triple-A to start next season, which would leave Edman as the presumptive starting shortstop.

Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt will be back at the corner infield. Goldschmidt is going into the final season of the five-year extension he signed upon landing in St. Louis. If the Cardinals struggle early in the year, he’d be a major deadline trade chip. It’d be very surprising if they seriously entertain moving him during the offseason, however. Perhaps another team wants to take a flier on 26-year-old Luken Baker, who is blocked by Goldschmidt but raked at a .334/.439/.720 clip in Triple-A this season.

23-year-old catcher Iván Herrera also had a great Triple-A showing, hitting .297/.451/.500 with 10 longballs in 375 trips to the plate. It’s his second consecutive above-average performance at the top minor league level. He’ll be out of options next year and surely won’t be placed on waivers. Either the Cardinals keep Herrera in the majors or they trade him, but the signing of Contreras muddies Herrera’s path to a regular role.

The Cards could flip or non-tender Andrew Knizner if they wanted to carry Herrera as Contreras’ backup. Herrera would have quite a bit more appeal than Knizner on the trade market, with teams like Miami (again), Tampa Bay and Boston among possible matches.

Deadline trade speculation extended to the bullpen. There was little incentive to hold impending free agents Hicks and Stratton. Giovanny Gallegos and Ryan Helsley were loosely floated in rumors. Helsley was on the injured list at the time, while Gallegos had just signed an extension last October. It’s not surprising no deal came together. While opposing clubs could call again on either, the Cardinals would probably prefer to retain two of their better late-game arms. Alongside southpaw JoJo Romero, that duo should assume high-leverage roles.

With Stratton and Hicks gone and long reliever Drew VerHagen hitting free agency, it’s likely St. Louis will add one or two relievers to the mix. That could include their first notable free agent bullpen pickup since they signed Andrew Miller in advance of the 2019 season, even if the rotation is the higher priority.

It looks like a winter with a fair bit of roster turnover. That doesn’t appear to extend to the top non-playing personnel. Oliver Marmol will be back for a third season as manager. Mozeliak — the sport’s second-longest tenured front office head — doesn’t seem to be in any jeopardy after a decade and a half of mostly successful ball. Mozeliak implied last offseason that he could hand the reigns to longtime lieutenant Michael Girsch once his contract expires after the 2025 season.

That’s a longer-term consideration. For now, the focus for Mozeliak, Girsch and Marmol is on quickly righting the ship after a disastrous season. The Cardinals aren’t accustomed to looking up at the rest of the division. They’ll try to ensure this offseason that it doesn’t happen again.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Cardinals-centric chat on 9-29-23. Click here to view the transcript.

Offseason Outlook: Detroit Tigers

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The Tigers showed signs of progress in the first season under their new front office regime. There’s still another corner to turn to make this a legitimate contender. They could try to close the gap this winter.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Javier Báez, SS: $98MM through 2027 (can opt out after this season)
  • Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP: $49MM through 2026 (can opt out after this season)

Option Decisions

  • Miguel Cabrera, DH: $30MM club option ($8MM buyout)
  • Carson Kelly, C: $3.5MM club option (no buyout); would remain eligible for arbitration if team declines

2024 commitments (assuming Rodriguez opts out): $33MM
Total future commitments (assuming Rodriguez opts out): $106MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Non-tender candidates: Kelly, Meadows, Turnbull

Free Agents

Towards the end of last season, the Tigers fired general manager Al Avila and hired Giants general manager Scott Harris away to serve as the new president of baseball operations in Detroit. Harris played things cautiously, taking the 2023 campaign as an evaluative year. Now heading into his second winter at the helm, he’ll face more urgency.

Harris recently made a notable off-field move, tabbing new GM Jeff Greenberg as #2 in the front office hierarchy. Greenberg had spent over a decade in the Cubs’ front office, where he overlapped with Harris, before a year in the NHL with the Blackhawks. He’s back in baseball to work under his old colleague and alongside fourth-year manager A.J. Hinch.

The Tigers weren’t facing any significant free agent departures last winter. That’s not the case this time around, as starter Eduardo Rodriguez could head back to the open market. The veteran southpaw has rebounded from a 2022 plagued by middling production and an extended stay away from the club for personal reasons. Rodriguez has turned in a 3.40 ERA across 25 starts, striking out a solid 23.2% of opposing hitters. While his production has tailed off since a late-May pulley rupture in the index finger of his throwing hand, there’s still a good chance he hits the market.

Rodriguez has three years and $49MM remaining on his five-year free agent contract. His camp can make a strong case that he’s a superior pitcher to Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker, each of whom secured four-year pacts ranging from $68MM to $72MM last winter. Rodriguez is clearly comfortable in Detroit and invoked his partial n0-trade clause to kill a deadline agreement that would’ve sent him to the Dodgers. He has been noncommittal when asked whether that decision would have any relation to his opt-out call.

From a strict financial perspective, it’d seem likely Rodriguez opts out. The Tigers would surely be happy to have him back in the fold if he plays out his current contract, though they’ll have to plan for the chance he heads elsewhere. There’s no suspense in two of the club’s other option decisions. Javier Báez is going to opt in for the final four years and $98MM on his contract. The team will pay an $8MM buyout to the retiring Miguel Cabrera.

Their final option call is on Carson Kelly. Detroit signed the veteran catcher after he was released by the Diamondbacks midseason. That deal gave the Tigers a $3.5MM option for what would be Kelly’s final year of arbitration. That’s less than Kelly would’ve made had he been tendered an arbitration contract.

Kelly hasn’t performed any better in Detroit than he did in Arizona. He’s hitting .182/.265/.295 in 16 games after running a .226/.283/.298 slash in the desert. Kelly’s production has cratered since he suffered a wrist injury midway through the 2021 season. Even at a $3.5MM price point, the Tigers could look elsewhere. Kelly would technically remain arb-eligible if the Tigers decline his option, though he’d surely be non-tendered at that point. It’d be illogical for the organization to tender him a contract at a higher value than the option price.

Even if they retain Kelly, he won’t be the starter. That falls to Jake Rogers, who has connected on 20 home runs in 353 trips to the plate. The 28-year-old pairs that power with highly-regarded defense. He’s a plus blocker, an above-average pitch framer and receives excellent reviews for his work with a pitching staff. If not Kelly, the Tigers would probably look to bring in another catcher but aren’t likely to seek out a new starter behind the dish.

On the other hand, they could look for upgrades at most spots on the infield. First base is the exception. Former #1 overall pick Spencer Torkelson has begun to look like an impact slugger after struggling through his first season and a half in the majors. He’s the only player locked into a spot on the dirt.

Detroit has given looks to multi-positional options Andy Ibáñez and Zach McKinstry. Ibáñez is hitting well in the second half; McKinstry had a solid start to the year but has tailed off significantly. They’re each viable MLB utility players. Neither has demonstrated they’re capable of holding down an everyday role for a full season. Ibáñez turns 31 next April, while McKinstry will be 29. It’s hard to count on either as regulars.

Things haven’t gone much better for the rest of Detroit’s infield. Nick Maton struggled on both sides of the ball after being acquired from Philadelphia in the Gregory Soto trade. Neither Zack Short nor Tyler Nevin has hit well. Late-season call Andre Lipcius is 25 and has never been viewed as a top prospect. Ryan Kreidler has spent the bulk of the year in Triple-A.

At least at third base, the Tigers can hope for better production in the near future. Colt Keith has mashed at a .306/.380/.552 clip between the top two minor levels at age 21. He’s now one of the sport’s top prospects and will surely get a look at some point in 2024, though the Tigers haven’t tipped their hand if he’s in consideration for the Opening Day third base job. Harris resisted calls throughout the season to promote Keith or Justyn-Henry Malloy, instead opting for a slow trajectory for the organization’s top prospects.

Malloy is ostensibly an option at the hot corner himself, though scouting reports suggest he might be better suited for left field. Acquired in the Joe Jiménez trade last offseason, the 23-year-old Malloy owns a .277/.417/.474 line over a full season at Triple-A Toledo. As with Keith, he should be up early in the season, though the defensive home is still up in the air.

Detroit isn’t going to make a run at Matt Chapman or Jeimer Candelario, who has emerged as one of the better hitters in the upcoming free agent class after the Tigers non-tendered him a year ago. Players like McKinstry and Ibáñez could cover third base in the short term if Detroit wanted to give Keith a little more time in Triple-A. Yet they’d be well-served to add a regular up the middle.

The organization obviously hoped Báez would anchor the group when they signed him to a $140MM free agent deal two years ago. Instead, he has hit .230/.273/.360 in a little more than 1100 trips to the plate. Báez is still the starting shortstop for now, but Hinch began to curtail his playing time toward the end of the season. The contract alone isn’t a compelling justification for giving him everyday run.

Unfortunately for the Tigers, it’s an awful offseason to be on the hunt for middle infield help. Amed Rosario might be the best player in the free agent shortstop class. It’s barely better at second base, where Whit Merrifield and Adam Frazier lead the group. There’s not much clearer supply on the trade market, where teams like the Giants and Marlins could also be in the mix.

Perhaps the Brewers would move Willy Adames, but he’s not a great fit for a fringe contender like Detroit with only one season of arbitration control remaining. The Cardinals seem reluctant to part with Tommy Edman. Baltimore could move Jorge Mateo, but he’s coming off a dreadful offensive season in his own right. There are a few more options at the keystone, where Brandon Drury or Cavan Biggio could be available — potentially bridging the gap to former #12 overall pick Jace Jung, who performed well at Double-A in his first full pro season.

Given the dearth of middle infield solutions, the Tigers could try to float Báez as a change-of-scenery candidate themselves. Yet he’d be an equally questionable solution for a team like San Francisco or Miami as he is in Detroit. They’d likely have to pay down over three-quarters of the remaining money just to facilitate a deal for a meager return. At that point, it’s probably better to hold onto him and hope for some sort of rebound.

Harris and his staff can feel a lot more comfortable with the outfield. They moved Riley Greene from center to right field late in the season. Assuming he progresses as expected after undergoing Tommy John surgery on his non-throwing elbow, he’ll be back at one of those spots. Parker Meadows, who took over for Greene in center, hasn’t hit much in his first look at MLB pitching. He’s a good enough defender that Detroit could stick with him in hopes the offense improves. Matt Vierling and Akil Baddoo could see some time in the corners — Vierling might also pick up reps at second or third base — with Malloy potentially playing his way into the left field mix.

Kerry Carpenter has rated as a roughly average corner outfield defender. Regarded by many prospect evaluators as a DH-only type, he has impressed with a .288/.346/.492 clip and 20 homers in his first full season at the big league level. With Cabrera retiring, the Tigers could give Carpenter a few more DH at-bats, though his ability to play an adequate left field gives Hinch options.

With that group of young outfielders, it’s hard to envision the Tigers retaining Austin Meadows. Anxiety issues have kept Meadows on the injured list for the bulk of the past two seasons. His mental health is obviously the foremost concern, but there’s probably no longer a place for him on the MLB roster. Detroit could also entertain trade possibilities on Baddoo or Vierling, perhaps as a means of adding a depth starter or middle reliever.

Rodriguez’s potential departure leaves a question mark in the rotation, though there’s still a promising group of fairly young arms. Tarik Skubal is the headliner. He has returned from flexor surgery and picked up where he’d begun last season, working to a 2.95 ERA with a near-32% strikeout rate through 14 starts.

Former #1 overall pick Casey Mize should be back after last year’s Tommy John procedure. Matt Manning somehow was hit by a comebacker that broke his foot on two separate occasions this year. Around that brutal luck, he looked like a decent rotation piece (albeit with an ERA that outstripped his peripherals). Reese Olson has flashed mid-rotation potential in 98 innings as a rookie.

They’ll likely need at least one veteran arm to solidify the staff. Along with Rodriguez, the Tigers traded away Michael Lorenzen at the deadline and lost Matthew Boyd (an impending free agent) to Tommy John surgery. Neither Alex Faedo nor Joey Wentz has done enough to secure a rotation spot.

Detroit has ample short-term financial room. If Rodriguez opts out, they’d have just $33MM in guaranteed commitments entering the winter. The arbitration class is relatively modest. Detroit has opened recent seasons with a player payroll in the $120-130MM range and has spent upwards of $200MM in the past (although that was under the late Mike Ilitch, while his son Christopher Ilitich is now the primary owner).

There’s ostensibly a chance for the organization to make a run at the top of the pitching market. Harris was hired from a Giants front office that generally eschewed long-term investments in starting pitching, preferring reclamation and/or mid-tier acquisitions. Whether he’ll carry that philosophy to Detroit remains to be seen.

If the Tigers wanted to aim high, they’d have a number of possibilities. A deal in the $200MM range for Blake Snell might be rich, but the likes of Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery are consistent sources of above-average bulk innings. NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto just turned 25 in August, so his expected prime aligns well with a Detroit team emerging from a rebuild. If they prefer to emulate the Giants’ model, the likes of Seth Lugo, Jack Flaherty and Michael Wacha (if his club option is declined by San Diego) could be targets.

Detroit could also subtract a notable name from the rotation picture. Spencer Turnbull once looked like an innings-eating mid-rotation starter who’d be a key contributor. According to various reports, the relationship between player and team looks to have soured over the past six months. Turnbull reported a neck injury after the Tigers attempted to option him to the minors in May, leading Detroit to put him on the major league IL.

The Tigers sent him to the minors once he was healthy, meaning he’ll finish the year just shy of five years of service. Turnbull reported a toenail avulsion that kept him off the mound for a few weeks immediately thereafter, though he has pitched since having the injured nail removed two weeks ago.

Whether the team/player relationship has soured or not, Turnbull looks to have been squeezed out of the rotation. He’s a potential non-tender candidate as a result, although it wouldn’t be a surprise if Detroit finds a minor trade return from a club interested in giving Turnbull a fresh start.

The bullpen seems in good shape even after last winter’s Jiménez and Soto trades. They’ll likely let José Cisnero walk in free agency after a dismal second half. A quartet of Jason Foley, Alex Lange, Will Vest and Tyler Holton still gives Hinch a strong collection of options. Perhaps they’ll bring in a second left-hander behind Holton, but it’s a quality relief group.

Detroit erroneously thought the rebuild was over two years ago. They made the ill-fated trade of Isaac Paredes and a Competitive Balance draft pick for Meadows and pushed in for Báez. The internal core wasn’t ready to take the next step at that point. It might be now, with Torkelson, Greene and Carpenter emerging and Skubal reestablishing himself as a top-end starter. There are still holes; the middle infield will be particularly difficult to solve.

Still, there’s a solid MLB nucleus, a few more upper minors contributors looming, and a mostly clear payroll ledger now that the Cabrera contract is drawing to a close. The Tigers play in the sport’s least competitive division. After a year to familiarize himself with the organization, does Harris consider this the right time to make a real effort at ending a nine-year playoff drought?

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Tigers-centric chat on 9-27-23. Click here to view the transcript.

Offseason Outlook: Washington Nationals

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The Nationals were a little more competitive than expected into late summer. They’ve improved on last year’s 107-loss showing but are likely headed for a fourth straight last-place finish in the NL East. The rebuild continues.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Stephen Strasburg, RHP: $105MM through 2026 ($80MM in deferred payments between 2028-30)
  • Keibert Ruiz, C: $48MM through 2030 (deal includes club options for ’31 and ’32)
  • Patrick Corbin, LHP: $35MM through 2024 ($10MM in deferred payments between 2025-26)
  • Trevor Williams, RHP: $7MM through 2024

Option Decisions

  • Victor Robles, CF: $3.3MM club option (no buyout); would remain eligible for arbitration if team declines

2024 commitments: $85MM
Total future commitments (not including deferrals): $195MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Non-tender candidates: Robles, Smith, Chavis, Vargas, Arano, Kieboom

Free Agents

The Nationals may have already made what’ll be their most consequential decisions for the upcoming season. With manager Dave Martinez and GM Mike Rizzo in the final years of their respective contracts, the possibility existed for large-scale organizational changes. Instead, Washington has locked in leadership stability in recent weeks. Martinez signed a two-year extension with a team option for 2026; Rizzo inked a multi-year pact of unreported length not long after.

Rizzo has been at the helm for nearly a decade and a half, a tenure exceeded only by Brian Cashman (Yankees) and John Mozeliak (Cardinals) among current baseball operations leaders. Martinez will be headed into his seventh season leading the dugout. Both have had success in Washington before their ongoing rebuild — highlighted by their 2019 World Series victory — offering reason for optimism they can lead the franchise back to success.

That’s unlikely to happen in 2024, however. The Nationals have made progress this year, as their win percentage is up from 34.5% to 43.9%. After finishing as the worst team in the majors in 2022, they own the game’s 24th-best record this season. Yet there’s still a wide discrepancy between the quality of the current roster and one that’s capable of competing for a playoff spot.

It’s most evident in the rotation, which is allowing exactly five earned runs per nine with the league’s fourth-lowest strikeout rate. Washington has had rare stability for a rotation performing at that level. Only six pitchers have logged even 30+ innings as starters.

On the plus side, their best performers have been a pair of young players who could be key pieces on the next competitive Washington club. Josiah Gray (4.00) and MacKenzie Gore (4.42) have the best ERAs of the group. Neither pitcher has developed into a top-of-the-rotation arm. They each still issue a few too many walks, while Gore has battled the home run ball. Gray’s production has tailed off in the second half. These issues aside, both hurlers have performed as big league-capable starters over a full season. They’ve done enough to secure spots in next year’s rotation, when the club will hope at least one takes a step forward to solidify himself as an above-average starter.

There’s not as much optimism for the rest of the group. Jake Irvin doesn’t miss bats and looks best suited as a depth option. Joan Adon has never found big league success. Veterans Patrick Corbin and Trevor Williams are each under contract through 2024 and have taken their share of innings but without great production. Corbin is on his third straight season with an ERA above 5.00 as he plays on a lofty free agent contract that went awry after one year (albeit one in which he was a key contributor to the World Series win). The signing of Williams to a two-year deal last winter hasn’t panned out.

Stephen Strasburg remains on the roster after the surprising reversal of course on his planned retirement. Continuing to devote him a 40-man spot when he’s unlikely to ever pitch again is a bizarre decision on the organization’s part, though it’s not particularly consequential at this point of the rebuild.

Washington could run things back with the same rotation group, as everyone is either under contract or club control. Former first-round draftee Cade Cavalli could break back into the mix midseason after undergoing Tommy John surgery in March. The Nats have options to plug innings, which isn’t true of every rebuilding team. Still, aside from a step forward from one of Gore or Gray, they couldn’t project much better results than they received this season. It’d be a surprise if they didn’t bring in at least one starter who could push Irvin back to Triple-A or Williams into the long relief role he’s had for the bulk of his career.

It’s hard to envision the Nats spending at the top of the market. They could offer a rotation spot to a rebound candidate like Luis Severino, Frankie Montas or Alex Wood in the hope that player could serve as a midseason trade chip. If they wanted to secure some stability over multiple years without making a huge financial commitment, they could consider the likes of Michael Lorenzen or Mike Clevinger.

They’ll probably also add an arm or two to the relief corps, as Washington has the lowest bullpen strikeout rate in the league. It’s not time to play at the top of the market for Josh Hader or pursue a veteran closer in the Craig Kimbrel mold. There are a number of middle relievers who’ll be available on one or two-year deals that could add swing-and-miss to the group. Ryne Stanek, Shintaro Fujinami and Keynan Middleton are among the power arms available in free agency.

Any free agent pickups would join a relief corps led by Kyle Finnegan, Hunter Harvey, and quietly effective waiver pickup Robert Garcia. The Nats could listen to trade offers on Finnegan or Harvey, though they’re not under pressure to make a deal with both pitchers eligible for arbitration through 2025.

There’s more reason for optimism on the other side of the ball. Washington has the potential for a strong future position player core, most of which was acquired in trades of their last group of stars. Keibert Ruiz and CJ Abrams are already playing regular roles on the big league club. Abrams has had a solid season to secure the shortstop job. Ruiz hasn’t broken through, but he’ll get every opportunity behind the plate after last winter’s $50MM extension that runs through 2030.

Riley Adams is a good complementary backstop, so there’s no need to add a catcher. They’ll likely look to bring in infield help around Abrams. They’ve closed the season giving regular run to Dominic Smith, Luis García and Ildemaro Vargas around the infield. Smith has hit .254/.324/.361 in 571 plate appearances after signing a $2MM deal last offseason and could be non-tendered.

García turns 24 next May, and may be young enough to get another shot at second base. It might be his last chance. The left-handed hitter owns a .265/.299/.382 line with nine homers over 466 trips to the plate this season. He’s now a .265/.292/.394 hitter in 1229 PA and 320 MLB games over parts of four seasons. While García has plus contact skills, he hasn’t shown a discerning plate approach nor much power. The profile is built around a largely empty batting average right now. That’d be more tenable if García were a plus defender, but public metrics have graded him as a below-average second baseman over his career.

While García has youth and prospect pedigree on his side, there’s no argument for giving Vargas the third base job. The journeyman infielder has a .251/.305/.363 slash over a career-high 274 plate appearances. He’s a versatile defender with contact skills but limited offensive upside, much better suited for a utility role. He has held down the hot corner since the Nats traded Jeimer Candelario at the deadline. They’ll need to look outside the organization again this winter.

Last year’s signing of Candelario to a $5MM deal after he was non-tendered by Detroit worked out perfectly. They’ll have a hard time repeating that level of success — most free agent rebound fliers don’t bounce back the way Candelario did — but the Nationals will probably take a shot on a similar style of player. Candelario himself has likely played his way into a three-plus year deal that’ll take him out of Washington’s price range. Players like Isiah Kiner-Falefa or Joey Wendle should be available on a one-year pact, or Nick Senzel or Santiago Espinal could be non-tendered or traded for minimal return.

A one-year stopgap is probably all that’ll be required. Former first-round pick Brady House played his way to Double-A, where he hit .324/.358/.475 in 36 games at age 20. While it’s too soon to count on House as a key contributor for 2024, he could debut late next year and hopefully seize the third base job headed into ’25.

Washington also has high-end prospects approaching the big league outfield. James Wood (acquired from the Padres in the Juan Soto deal) and the 2023 draft’s #2 overall pick Dylan Crews are widely regarded as top 10 minor league talents in the sport. Wood joined House in reaching Double-A before his 21st birthday.  Wood ran an impressive .248/.344/.492 line with 18 homers across 87 games, and while the power-hitting outfielder struck out a fair amount, that’s to be expected for a 6’6″ hitter facing far older pitching. Crews shredded SEC arms at LSU and reached Double-A by the end of his draft year.

As with House, it’d be optimistic to expect either player at Nationals Park in the first half of next season. A promotion towards the middle or tail end of the year seems attainable, again offering hope they could be everyday players by 2025. It’s unlikely all three hit the ground running at the MLB level — even a lot of top prospects struggle out of the gate — but it’s an enviable collection of approaching talent.

When Wood and Crews arrive, they’d likely join Lane Thomas in the everyday outfield. The 28-year-old owns a .270/.319/.472 slash with 27 homers through 658 trips to the plate. He has destroyed left-handed pitching while hitting at a league average clip versus righties. While Thomas may be more of a complementary piece on a first-division club, he has proven an excellent find for Washington — which acquired him from the Cardinals for the final half-season of Jon Lester’s career in 2021.

Thomas is under arbitration control through 2025. His name surfaced in trade speculation this summer, though there’s no indication the Nats got all that close to making a deal. While they’ll surely find interest again, he doesn’t seem any more likely to move next winter than he did at the deadline. The organization’s long-term financial slate is clear enough that Thomas makes sense as an extension candidate. A guarantee in the $25-30MM range that buys out his remaining two arbitration seasons and first free agent year (2026) with a club option for a second could be mutually beneficial. It’d lock in some financial certainty for a relative late bloomer while ensuring Thomas doesn’t hit free agency before Washington is ready to contend.

As with third base, the Nats will probably bring in a veteran outfielder to hold the fort for a season. Former top prospect Victor Robles has missed the bulk of the year and seems a non-tender possibility. Neither Alex Call nor Jake Alu have provided any offense. Stone Garrett was a solid right-handed platoon option but suffered a gruesome leg injury that ended his season. Jacob Young doesn’t bring much offensive upside to the table in center field.

Washington guaranteed Corey Dickerson $2.25MM to add a veteran bat to the outfield last offseason. They’ll probably aim a little higher this time around. The likes of Hunter Renfroe and Adam Duvall could secure an annual salary in the $6-10MM range (perhaps for two years in Duvall’s case). Ramón Laureano or Seth Brown could be available following a non-tender. A corner outfield acquisition could take some DH at-bats from Joey Meneses — who has hit at a league average level in his follow-up to an excellent small-sample showing as a 30-year-old rookie — if Wood or Crews force their way to the big leagues early on.

There should generally be some short-term flexibility for Rizzo and his front office. Strasburg, Corbin, Williams and Ruiz are the only players with guaranteed contracts for next season. They have a deep class of arbitration-eligible players but none who are going to break the bank individually.

It’s less clear if there’s any appetite for a notable multi-year commitment. The franchise’s financial picture has been a question for a few seasons. The MASN rights dispute with the Orioles interfered with the Lerner family’s efforts to sell the club last year. It’s possible the Lerners again try to explore offers, though the TV situation isn’t much clearer now than it was 12 months ago.

The organization has sliced player payroll over the past few years. That’s standard procedure for a team amidst a rebuild, yet the ownership uncertainty takes on more significance as the club gets closer to contention. While the Strasburg and Ruiz contracts are the only ones running beyond next season, they’re on the hook for deferred payments of $15MM annually to Max Scherzer through 2028 and owe Corbin another $10MM in deferred salary over two more seasons. Strasburg’s contract won’t be paid in full until 2030.

Against those financial questions, the roster is beginning to take shape. The Nationals could have a viable position player core in place by 2025 depending on the progressions of Crews, Wood and House (as well as Abrams and Ruiz at the big league level). The pitching is less impressive overall, though Gray, Gore and Cavalli offer some intriguing individual pieces. Washington isn’t ready to compete yet, but things could be a lot more exciting at this time next year.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Nationals-centric chat on 9-26-23. Click here to view the transcript.

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