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Reds Notes: Antone, Santillan, Senzel

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Reds reliever Tejay Antone announced last week he’d miss the start of the season after receiving a platelet-rich plasma injection to address a flexor strain in his forearm. He didn’t provide many more specifics but implied he could be sidelined by the All-Star Break. While that’s potentially still on the table, manager David Bell only indicated today that Antone would be out at least through the end of April (via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer).

Antone’s coming off a lost 2022 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery towards the tail end of the ’21 campaign. That was the second such procedure of his career, with injuries conspiring to rob the Reds of arguably their best reliever. Before his surgery, the former fifth-round draftee had pitched 33 2/3 innings of 2.14 ERA ball with a 32.8% strikeout rate.

Getting him back as quickly as possible will be crucial for a Cincinnati club that didn’t make any MLB additions to its bullpen this offseason. The Reds’ relief corps was a bottom ten unit by both ERA and strikeout/walk rate differential last season. The expected returns of Antone and Lucas Sims from surgery rehabs would’ve reinstalled a pair of high-leverage options. Sims is on track for full spring participation, Bell informed reporters today, but Antone’s loss subtracts one of the highest-upside hurlers from the mix.

Cincinnati might also be without Tony Santillan to start the season, Bell indicated. The 6’3″ righty didn’t pitch in last year’s second half on account of a lower back injury. That apparently carried into his offseason, and Santillan is behind schedule in his throwing program. A former second-round pick and once one of the more intriguing pitching prospects in the Reds’ system, he’s settled in as a reliever at the MLB level. Santillan came out of the bullpen 21 times last year, allowing 14 runs in 19 2/3 innings.

In more fortunate health news, center fielder Nick Senzel appears to be mostly ready to go for camp. The 27-year-old told C. Trent Rosecrans of the Athletic he feels good and has recovered from offseason toe surgery (Twitter link). While he indicated he might be built up a little more slowly than most players, it seems he’s on track for Opening Day. Senzel still looks the favorite for regular center field reps, though the Reds added a potential alternative with the acquisition of Will Benson from the Guardians last week. A former second overall pick, Senzel will be looking for a breakout year after hitting .240/.303/.360 through his first 273 MLB games.

Trade Candidate: Vidal Brujan

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A depth surplus and roster crunch is familiar territory for the Rays, who seemingly make a trade or two at the start of each offseason to reallocate spots to players they want to keep out of the Rule 5 draft. This winter saw former top infield prospect Xavier Edwards shipped alongside reliever JT Chargois to the Marlins for a pair of minor leaguers nowhere close to the majors.

Even with Edwards no longer in the picture, the Rays have plenty of infield talent. That could result in another trade, with a different one-time top minor leaguer also appearing to be on the roster bubble. Vidal Bruján played in 52 MLB games last season and has appeared in the big leagues in each of the past two years. He’s yet to establish himself as an everyday player, though, and it’s questionable whether the Rays are in a great position to give him that opportunity.

Bruján appeared at the back half of Baseball America’s top 100 prospect list each season from 2019-22. A switch-hitter with plus speed, he’s put up a solid .274/.355/.440 line and 70 stolen bases over 166 games at the Triple-A level. Bruján doesn’t have huge power, but he’s an advanced contact hitter and athletic enough to be a quality baserunner. He’s gone down on strikes in just 15.9% of his Triple-A plate appearances while walking at a quality 10.4% clip.

That upper minors production didn’t carry over in his first significant big league action. Over 162 plate appearances last season, he hit .163/.228/.259 with three homers and five steals in 10 attempts. Those numbers aren’t an entirely fair reflection of his performance, as Bruján’s .193 batting average on balls in play will certainly come up over a longer sample. He didn’t hit the ball hard at the MLB level but continued to make contact at an above-average clip.

Headed into his age-25 season, Bruján certainly still has promise. Yet he doesn’t have the clearest path to at-bats in Tampa Bay, at least to open the season. Primarily a middle infielder throughout his minor league tenure, he’s certainly not displacing Brandon Lowe or Wander Franco if those players are healthy. The Rays have given him some outfield work to take advantage of his athleticism. Bruján doesn’t have the kind of power one would expect from a primary corner outfielder. He’s not likely to be the caliber of center fielder Jose Siri or Josh Lowe are given his lack of high level experience at the outfield’s most demanding position.

There’s not a clear path to everyday playing time for Bruján anywhere at the MLB level right now. He still has one remaining option year, however, raising the possibility of him heading back to Triple-A Durham for an additional season.

Trading Bruján would represent a sell-low situation. He’d have value but wouldn’t fetch an astronomical return after a down rookie season. Keeping him in a utility capacity gives manager Kevin Cash a potential pinch-runner or defensive substitute later in games but isn’t likely to afford Bruján the at-bats to play his way into a more consistent role.

The latter course of action is also complicated by the Rays’ surplus of alternative bench possibilities. Assuming the club deploys 13 pitchers and position players alike, they’ll have four reserve spots available. One will go to the backup catcher. Luke Raley is out of options, meaning he’ll have to stay in the majors or be offered to other teams. Taylor Walls didn’t hit last season but is an excellent infielder, one whom the Rays trusted more regularly than Bruján when Franco and Brandon Lowe were injured in 2022. Walls can be optioned, but doing so would subtract likely the top defensive shortstop from the active roster.

It’s the opposite story for Jonathan Aranda, who comes with defensive concerns but mashed at a .318/.394/.521 clip in Durham to earn a brief MLB look. Aranda can be optioned back, though he clearly has nothing left to prove against minor league pitching. His lefty bat would also be a welcome addition to a Rays’ lineup that heavily skews right-handed, so it stands to reason the front office would prefer to have Aranda in the majors. Another top infield prospect, Curtis Mead, is almost certainly going to make his MLB debut in 2023 after hitting .305/.394/.548 over 56 games in Triple-A last season. He was added onto the 40-man roster this offseason and ranks as the game’s #36 prospect at Baseball America.

Juggling this kind of infield talent is nothing new for a front office that tends to prioritize high-contact middle infielders on draft day. It’s the kind of depth most other organizations aren’t able to stockpile, which makes even players towards the back of the Tampa Bay roster intriguing to other clubs. If the Rays feel Bruján is trending in that direction, they could open talks with other teams that have acute needs up the middle. The White Sox, A’s, Tigers, Pirates and Angels are among the speculative candidates for such a trade — particularly since non-competitive teams like Oakland, Detroit and Pittsburgh can afford to live with some early growing pains to take a chance on Bruján’s longer-term upside.

There weren’t any indications over the offseason the Rays were especially anxious to move Bruján. Perhaps an injury in Spring Training paves the way for him to assume a more obvious role in Tampa Bay than exists right now. If everyone’s healthy come Opening Day, though, he’d head into the season as an interesting potential trade chip if the Rays don’t flip him during Spring Training.

Note: An earlier version of this post incorrectly suggested Bruján was out of options. MLBTR has confirmed the Rays were granted a fourth option year, with Bruján having one option season remaining. MLBTR regrets the error.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Padres Optimistic Regarding Drew Pomeranz’s Readiness For Season

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The Padres were without a key bullpen piece for all of last season. Left-hander Drew Pomeranz missed the whole year after suffering a setback in his recovery from August 2021 surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon in his forearm.

With camp opening this week, San Diego skipper Bob Melvin provided reporters (including AJ Cassavell of MLB.com) with an update on the veteran reliever’s status. While the club plans to take things cautiously early in exhibition play, they’re anticipating a fairly normal build-up to the regular season. “I wouldn’t say (Pomeranz) is on a program where he’s completely a ’go’ like everybody else,” Melvin said. “That could happen at some point in time early in camp. There’s still probably some restrictions on him. But once we get to games, hopefully he’s in a place where he’s just trying to get ready for a season.”

If all goes as expected, the 34-year-old will be in the Opening Day bullpen. A healthy Pomeranz would have a chance at carving out a key late-game role. Prior to his season-ending injury in 2021, he’d posted a 1.75 ERA with a 29.4% strikeout percentage through 25 2/3 innings. That came on the heels of an even more dominant 1.45 ERA, 39.7% strikeout rate over 18 1/3 frames during the shortened 2020 season. All told, Pomeranz has a 1.62 ERA while punching out a little more than a third of his opponents in 47 appearances during this stint as a Padre.

Signed to a surprising four-year deal over the 2019-20 offseason, Pomeranz has more than made good on the organization’s faith on a rate basis but unfortunately been unable to accrue many innings. He’s headed into the final season of that contract and playing this year on a $10MM salary. That makes this a pivotal season for the former All-Star, since he’s slated to return to the open market next winter.

Pomeranz will at least be joined by star closer Josh Hader and ground-ball specialist Tim Hill as left-handers in the bullpen. Adrián Morejón would likely join them if he’s not given a rotation opportunity. San Diego would have to keep Rule 5 selection Jose Lopez on the big league staff if they want to retain his long-term contractual rights, while José Castillo, Tom Cosgrove and Ray Kerr could all find themselves in the mix. There’s ample depth, though Pomeranz may have the highest upside of the bunch aside from Hader. From the right side, Robert Suarez, Luis García and Steven Wilson all look likely to assume important innings in what should be a very strong relief corps.

Marlins Notes: Gurriel, First Base, Rotation, Sanchez

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The Marlins were one of the teams known to have interest in free agent first baseman Yuli Gurriel earlier this offseason. Some reports painted Miami as the favorite to land the longtime Astros infielder, though the Fish subsequently backed off their pursuit. According to Craig Mish and Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, Miami had made Gurriel a one-year offer worth a bit more than $2MM this winter. After a week without getting a definitive response from the former batting champion’s camp, the Fish took that proposal off the table.

Gurriel was reportedly seeking a deal in the $3MM range at one point. Whether that’s still the case isn’t known, but he continues to linger alongside Luke Voit, Miguel Sanó and Mike Moustakas as the most accomplished remaining free agent first base options. Gurriel reportedly drew some interest, the extent of which is unclear, from the Twins. Houston brass has also praised his presence in the clubhouse over the last seven years, though Astros general manager Dana Brown indicated last week there might not be room on the roster after Houston brought in José Abreu to play first base.

Meanwhile, Jackson writes that Miami could look to bring in a different first baseman on a minor league contract with a Spring Training invitation. Garrett Cooper is in line for the starting job. He’s a quality hitter but has only twice reached 400 plate appearances in a season thanks to a lengthy injury history. Cooper has had injured list stints in all five years since the Marlins acquired him from the Yankees over the 2017-18 offseason. Miami has Luis Arraez as an alternative first base option but plans to give him more consistent run at second base.

The Fish made a more significant acquisition on the other side of the ball over the weekend, bringing in reliever A.J. Puk in a trade that sent outfielder JJ Bleday to Oakland. Puk jumps into the late-inning mix, while Miami’s ample rotation depth could lead to a camp battle for starts. Sandy Alcantara headlines the staff, with Jesús Luzardo, Trevor Rogers, Braxton Garrett, Edward Cabrera and offseason signee Johnny Cueto all options for the rotation. While it’s possible one member of that group starts the year in the bullpen, pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre Jr. indicated today the team could carry them all in the rotation (link via Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald).

While the pitching coach didn’t commit to any roles at this stage of the winter, he noted that general manager Kim Ng and manager Skip Schumaker have discussed the potential for a six-man starting staff. Doing so early in the season could help manage workloads to ease into the year. Of course, it’s unlikely all six hurlers will stay healthy and perform well from Opening Day through year’s end, so injuries either in Spring Training or during the season are likely to sort things out.

On the other side of the equation, the Marlins could eventually welcome another talented young starter back from a laundry list of recent injuries. Sixto Sánchez hasn’t thrown a big league pitch in two years thanks to shoulder issues that required multiple surgeries. The most recent of those procedures came last fall. Sánchez told reporters last week he feels about 85% and has thrown a handful of bullpen sessions.

Stottlemyre declined to specify a timetable for Sánchez’s return to a big league mound but indicated the team continues to view him as a starting pitcher. The veteran coach expressed a desire to get the 24-year-old to rebuild a workload against live hitters. Once one of the sport’s top pitching prospects and the centerpiece of the J.T. Realmuto trade, Sánchez has seven MLB starts to date. He worked to a 3.46 ERA with an excellent 58% grounder rate over 39 innings during the shortened 2020 schedule.

Twins Interested In Brad Hand

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The Twins have some interest in free agent reliever Brad Hand, reports Darren Wolfson of SKOR North (Twitter link). Minnesota is the first team firmly linked to the three-time All-Star, who’s one of a handful of left-handed relievers still on the open market.

Hand, a Twin Cities native, spent last season in Philadelphia after signing a $6MM deal with the Phillies. He appeared in 55 games, working to a 2.80 ERA across 45 innings. It was solid run prevention but came with his worst strikeout and walk numbers since his full-time bullpen transfer in 2016. Hand struck out a below-average 19.2% of opposing hitters on a very modest 7.3% swinging strike rate. He also walked batters at an elevated 11.6% clip, with that fringy strikeout and walk profile surely contributing to his lack of reported interest this offseason.

To his credit, the 6’3″ southpaw did an excellent job at staying off barrels last year. He limited opposing hitters to a woeful 26.9% hard contact rate, leading to another season in which he was excellent at keeping the ball in the yard despite lacking huge ground-ball totals. Hand has generally shown a knack for avoiding damaging contact, leaning heavily on a sweeping slider to keep hitters off balance.

33 next month, Hand isn’t as dominant now as he was during his 2016-20 peak, a five-year run in which he was amongst the sport’s most effective late-game weapons. Over that stretch, he worked to a sterling 2.70 ERA while striking out a third of opponents against an average 8.1% walk rate. Hand’s swing-and-miss stuff has fallen off the last two seasons but he’s nevertheless posted generally decent results.

The 12-year MLB veteran posted neutral platoon numbers last season but has predictably been quite a bit better against same-handed batters over the course of his career. Going back to 2016, he’s stifled left-handers to a .169/.261/.287 line while righties have put up a .228/.308/.370 mark. The Twins don’t strictly need left-handed help with Caleb Thielbar and Jovani Moran both assured of bullpen spots, but they haven’t done much to address their relief corps in any capacity this winter.

Matt Moore and Will Smith are probably the top lefty relievers still available on the open market. They’re followed by Hand, Zack Britton and Daniel Norris. The righty market is down to bounceback candidates like Corey Knebel, Jeff Hoffman and Hansel Robles.

Tigers Notes: Lorenzen, Lange, Knapp

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The Tigers added right-hander Michael Lorenzen on a one-year, $8.5MM guarantee earlier this offseason. He’ll add some depth to a Detroit rotation that’ll be without Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal to start the season (likely the whole year in the former’s case), joining Eduardo Rodriguez, Spencer Turnbull, Matt Manning and Matthew Boyd in the presumptive season-opening rotation. The 31-year-old indicated today he’s hoping to expand his responsibilities beyond the mound.

Lorenzen told reporters he’s angling for an opportunity to log some at-bats this season (link via Evan Woodbery of MLive.com). He’s dabbled with being a two-way player in years past, most notably when he combined for 87 plate appearances with the 2018-19 Reds. Lorenzen only hit once in each of his final two seasons with Cincinnati and didn’t do so at all last year with the Angels, whom he said declined his request for at-bats. The eight-year MLB veteran said this morning he devoted some time this offseason to tinkering with his swing mechanics.

Over 147 big league plate appearances, Lorenzen is a .233/.282/.429 hitter. He’s connected on seven home runs and stolen five bases in seven attempts, showing an intriguing power/speed combination. Yet his overall offensive production — while excellent compared to other pitchers — has been well worse than that of a league average hitter thanks to a meager 4.8% walk rate and huge 32% strikeout percentage. Of course, Lorenzen has never had an extended run of everyday looks at live pitching to get into a groove. Whether the Tigers are willing to give him even stray at-bats or some outfield work remains to be seen.

In other news out of the Motor City:

  • Reliever Alex Lange declined an opportunity to pitch for Puerto Rico in the upcoming World Baseball Classic, telling Chris McCosky of the Detroit News he preferred to focus on the season. Lange spoke of his desire to seize the closer’s role heading into 2023. Detroit dealt last year’s primary closer, Gregory Soto, to Philadelphia last month. Andrew Chafin, Joe Jiménez and Michael Fulmer — the other three hurlers who had multiple saves for the club last year — are all on different teams as well. That’ll leave manager A.J. Hinch relying on someone (or multiple pitchers) without much closing experience in the ninth inning. Lange certainly will be in line for high-leverage innings in some capacity after striking out 30.3% of opponents with a massive 55.6% grounder rate over 63 1/3 innings. He posted a 3.41 ERA and held 21 leads in a setup capacity, with an 11.4% walk percentage the only red flag in his performance. Will Vest, José Cisnero and Jason Foley could also battle for work late in games.
  • While Lorenzen and Lange are sure to assume key roles on the club, catcher Andrew Knapp will fight for a roster spot this spring. The veteran backstop inked a minor league deal with Detroit on the heels of a 2022 campaign that saw him log time in four different organizations. Knapp recently chatted with Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press about his push for the #2 catching job behind Eric Haase. More broadly, the switch-hitter noted he’s excited to learn from Hinch — a former big league catcher — both in his desire to improve as a leader of a pitching staff and with an eye towards his longer-term future. Knapp noted he’d “really enjoy pursuing a managing career if that’s an opportunity I ever get” in his post-playing days. At age 31, he could certainly extend his playing career for a while before worrying about the next phase, starting with a push for a roster spot in Detroit. Jake Rogers — who’s returning after spending all of last season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery — and recent trade acquisition Donny Sands join Haase as the three backstops on the 40-man roster.

Padres Showing Interest In Michael Wacha

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The Padres have recently checked in with righty Michael Wacha, reports Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. San Diego has also shown recent interest in veteran southpaw Cole Hamels as part of his comeback effort, according to Acee.

Those hurlers are in very different spots of their careers. Wacha is the best remaining free agent starting pitcher and the only hurler who made MLBTR’s top 50 free agents at the start of the offseason who is still unsigned. The 31-year-old is coming off a solid season for the Red Sox, making good on a $7MM free agent deal to turn in a 3.32 ERA across 23 starts and 127 1/3 innings.

Wacha’s camp apparently entered free agency with a fairly lofty goal on the heels of that showing. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported last month his camp had been seeking around $30MM over two seasons. There hasn’t seemed to be sufficient interest from the market to push prices to that level, and Acee suggests Wacha’s asking price has lowered as the regular season draws nearer.

On the surface, a $15MM average annual value over two years isn’t an outlandish ask for a pitcher who posted such a strong ERA during his platform year. However, there are a handful of other indicators that raise questions about Wacha’s ability to sustain upper mid-rotation production. The 2022 season was the first in four years in which the veteran hurler allowed fewer than four earned runs per nine innings and came on the heels of consecutive campaigns with an ERA above 5.00. Wacha’s peripherals weren’t dramatically different from those of his prior showings.

Last year’s 20.2% strikeout rate was his lowest since 2019, as was his 9.5% swinging strike percentage. Wacha’s average fastball speed was at exactly 93 MPH after sitting at 93.6 MPH and 93.8 MPH, respectively, in 2020-21. His ground-ball rate was up a couple percentage points relative to his past couple years and he demonstrated the above-average control he’s owned throughout his career. Yet the most significant difference in 2022 was that opponents hit only .260 on balls in play after combining for a .324 BABIP between 2020-21.

Of course, there’s room for Wacha’s ERA to regress while still remaining palatable. Thanks largely to his plus strike-throwing, he’s posted a SIERA between 3.99 and 4.07 in each of the last three seasons. He’s a capable back-of-the-rotation starter, making him a reasonable fit for a win-now San Diego team that’s prepared to take some risk in their starting staff. Converted relievers Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo are respectively penciled into the fourth and fifth rotation spots behind Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell. The Friars are taking a leap of faith in both pitchers’ ability to hold up as starters — Martinez fared better as a reliever last year, and Lugo hasn’t topped 100 innings since 2018 — and adding a stable veteran like Wacha could alleviate some of the pressure on Martinez and Lugo.

It doesn’t appear San Diego is looking to displace either of that duo from the rotation. Manager Bob Melvin told reporters this afternoon the club had yet to decide whether to proceed with a five-man or six-man starting staff (link via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). That could well depend on the team’s personnel, and bringing in Wacha would likely lead to the expanded rotation. Among internal options, Adrián Morejón, Reiss Knehr, Jay Groome and Pedro Avila are among those could battle for starts if the Friars want to lessen the load on their top five and/or incur any injuries.

The club’s openness to a six-man rotation could play into their interest in Hamels, although he certainly wouldn’t secure a guaranteed rotation job at the time of his signing. The four-time All-Star has had his last three seasons derailed by injuries. He’s started just one MLB game since the start of the 2020 season, missing the past two and a half years as various ailments (most notably recurring shoulder problems) have kept him out of action. He didn’t sign anywhere last year but is hoping for a comeback at age 39.

To that end, the longtime Phillie threw in front of scouts in late January. He’ll have to settle for a minor league contract after two lost seasons but seems likely to get a look from some club in Spring Training if healthy. Hamels is no stranger to the area, having grown up in San Diego and entering pro ball as a first-round pick out of Rancho Bernardo High School back in 2002.

Cardinals, President Of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak Agree To Extension

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The Cardinals are in agreement with president of baseball operations John Mozeliak on a two-year contract extension, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The deal, which is tacked onto the final year of Mozeliak’s current contract, keeps him atop the baseball ops department through the 2025 campaign. Goold adds the club is expected to announce the move as soon as tomorrow.

It’s an entirely unsurprising development. Mozeliak has been a member of the organization since 1996, when he joined the club’s scouting department in his mid-20’s. Now 54, he’s spent over two decades with the franchise, quickly rising to the top of the front office. He’d taken over the scouting group by 1999 and was tabbed as an assistant general manager four years later. Following the 2007 offseason, he took hold of baseball operations upon receiving a promotion to GM. He’d retain final say on decision-making with a 2017 title boost to president of baseball operations.

Mozeliak has led the group for more than a decade and a half, overseeing a period of remarkable consistency. The Cardinals have had an above-average record in all 15 seasons. They’ve reached the playoffs in 10 of those years, including an ongoing streak of four consecutive appearances. While they won at least one playoff round every year from 2011-14, highlighted by a World Series title in 2011, the franchise has not had a ton of playoff success of late.

St. Louis has only advanced past the Division Series once since 2014, during a ’19 campaign in which they were then swept by the Nationals in the NL Championship Series. In each of the last three years, they’ve lost in the first postseason round — Wild Card series in 2020 and ’22 and the one-game Wild Card playoff in 2021. That has surely been a source of frustration to the organization and fanbase alike, but there’s little question of the club’s regular season success since Mozeliak took the helm.

The Yankees (30 straight) are the only other franchise with an active streak of 15+ consecutive winning seasons. (St. Louis’ streak is tied for sixth-longest in MLB history). The Cards have finished first or second in the NL Central four years running, taking the division in both 2019 and ’22. Mozeliak’s clubs have six division titles overall despite player payrolls that annually wind up only a little higher than league average. St. Louis doesn’t typically do a whole lot via free agency, but they’ve established a knack for a strong drafting/player development pipeline and executed a number of impact trades.

That has remained on display over the past few seasons. The Cards have gotten MVP-caliber production from Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, both of whom were acquired in some of the more high-profile trades in recent memory (deals in which the players the Cardinals surrendered have largely underperformed). As with any baseball operations leader, Mozeliak’s group doesn’t have a perfect hit rate. Surrendering Sandy Alcantara and Zac Gallen in the 2017 Marcell Ozuna trade, for instance, has turned out disastrously. By and large, though, the organization has made strong player personnel decisions in recent years — manifesting in their consistency in churning out winning seasons.

St. Louis has continued to supplement that star talent with internal promotions, with players like Tommy Edman, Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan and Ryan Helsley making strong contributions despite entering the professional ranks as mid-round draftees. The organization’s development pipeline remains solid. Keith Law of the Athletic recently slotted their farm system ninth in the majors.

While that hasn’t translated to the recent playoff success the organization desires, the Cardinals appear to be in good shape for continued success throughout the coming decade. Ownership has certainly been pleased with the results, with Mozeliak and longtime top lieutenant Michael Girsch kept in place for over a decade apiece. Girsch is also locked in for the foreseeable future after inking a multi-year extension last fall.

Astros Sign Cristian Javier To Five-Year Extension

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The Astros have locked up a key member of their rotation, announcing agreement with Cristian Javier on a five-year deal. The contract, which does not contain any option provisions, locks in his final three seasons of arbitration control and buys out two would-be free agent years. It’s reportedly a $64MM guarantee for the MVP Sports Group client.

Javier will receive a $2MM signing bonus and a $3MM salary for the upcoming season. That’ll be followed by successive salaries of $7MM in 2024, $10MM in 2025, and $21MM annually between 2026-27. Javier’s salaries in the final two seasons can escalate depending on his Cy Young finishes in prior years. He’d add $2MM to his salary in the final two seasons with any previous Cy Young win, $1MM with a runner-up, or $500K for a third through fifth place finish.

“Cristian is an outstanding pitcher, so we are really excited about signing him to a long-term deal,” first-year general manager Dana Brown said in the team’s press release. “We felt that he is the perfect candidate for this type of deal as a core piece of our rotation. This is in line with our vision to try to to lock players up to sustain our success both now and in the future.”

Javier, 26 next month, signed with the Astros as an 18-year-old out of the Dominican Republic during the 2015-16 signing period. Two years older than the typical international amateur acquisition, Javier received a $10K bonus as an unheralded prospect. That he even made the majors given that modest starting point is a testament to his progression and the Astros’ strong pitcher development staff. Javier has performed at an above-average level from essentially day one in MLB, breaking in with 54 1/3 innings of 3.48 ERA ball during the shortened 2020 schedule.

It was a promising rookie showing in which Javier started 10 of his first 12 outings. He started the first nine appearances of the following season but was kicked to the bullpen in late May thanks to the Astros’ starting pitching surplus. Javier thrived in relief, striking out 31.3% of opponents with a 3.93 ERA as a multi-inning weapon. That affirmed his ability to perform at a high-end level over a full season and put him in the mix for a potential return to the rotation.

That transition back to starting came last April. After three relief outings to open the year, Javier was moved back into the rotation as part of a six-man starting staff. He improved upon his strong first couple seasons, totaling 148 2/3 innings of 2.54 ERA ball. He fanned 33.2% of opposing hitters while generating swinging strikes on an excellent 13.8% of his overall offerings. Among 72 pitchers with 140+ innings, only Carlos Rodón and Shohei Ohtani racked up strikeouts more efficiently. Javier’s per-pitch whiff rate checked in 11th among that group.

Javier now carries a 3.05 ERA with a 30.9% strikeout percentage through 304 1/3 career innings of regular season action. That production was certainly eye-opening on its own, though he perhaps firmly put himself on the national radar last fall. Entrusted with a start in Game Four of the World Series with his club down 2-1, Javier outpitched Aaron Nola with six innings of no-hit ball and nine strikeouts. A trio of relievers closed out the second no-hitter in World Series history and evened a series which Houston would go on to take in six games.

Obviously, Houston’s long-term belief in Javier goes well beyond that one performance. He’s among the game’s best young pitchers at missing bats. That’s been particularly true against right-handed batters, who have struck out in 36.6% of plate appearances while hitting .143/.231/.304 against him over his MLB career. Lefties have had a little more success, working walks at an 11.1% clip with a .212/.307/.369 line, but haven’t fared particularly well themselves.

The free passes against southpaws hint at fine but unexceptional control. Javier has walked 10.1% of opponents in his career and handed out free passes at a slightly higher than average 8.9% clip last season. He’s not a pinpoint control artist but has thrown more than enough strikes considering his ability to miss bats. He’s also one of the sport’s more extreme fly-ball pitchers. That led to some home runs issues early in his career but wasn’t a problem in 2022, when he allowed just over one longball per nine innings. That was on the strength of a minuscule 9.1% HR/FB rate he’s not likely to sustain, and homer issues could be at least a modest concern moving forward.

Even if Javier doesn’t replicate a 2.54 ERA annually, his first couple seasons demonstrate he’s capable of keeping runs off the board with a few round-trippers mixed in. The Astros now have Javier and Lance McCullers Jr. signed for the extended future (McCullers through 2026, Javier through ’27). Framber Valdez is arbitration-eligible through 2025, as is José Urquidy. Luis Garcia has yet to reach arbitration and won’t hit free agency until following the 2026 campaign. Top prospect Hunter Brown, meanwhile, just reached the majors late last year and is controllable until at least the 2028-29 offseason.

That controllable rotation should position the Astros to stretch their run of success well into the decade. It’s possible more deals are coming, as the new GM has already gone on record about a desire to lock up multiple key players on long-term extensions. That has been an organizational emphasis for the Braves, in whose front office Brown worked before landing the Houston GM job two weeks ago. It hasn’t taken long for him to bring that philosophy to Houston, and while Brown candidly implied yesterday that a Javier deal was likely to be the first one coming, it’s hard to imagine it’ll be the last one that gets done.

Former GM James Click had already extended Yordan Alvarez through 2028 last summer. Star outfielder Kyle Tucker (arb-eligible through 2025) and infielders Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve (both under contract for two more seasons) are among the other players whom Brown has expressed a desire to keep around.

The Javier deal won’t have a huge impact on the club’s 2023 payroll. He and the team had been slated to go to an arbitration hearing that would’ve seen him earn either $3MM or $3.5MM for this season. Factoring in the signing bonus adds $1.5MM – $2MM to the club’s ledger this year. Houston’s payroll now sits around $193MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. That’s above last year’s estimated $174MM season0opening mark but not a dramatic spike for a franchise coming off a World Series win.

The extension has a more notable impact on the club’s luxury tax calculation. A deal’s average annual value counts against a team’s CBT ledger. Javier’s now at $12.8MM from a CBT perspective, bringing Houston’s projected tax number around $218MM. That leaves them about $15MM shy of the $233MM base threshold.

The following $7MM and $10MM salaries reflect reasonable enough assumptions about how Javier’s payments might have escalated over his final two arbitration seasons. Houston’s $21MM annual payments for his two would-be free agent years, however, mark a step up in this service bracket. Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara signed a five-year extension that guaranteed $56MM last winter, the largest deal ever for a pitcher with between three and fours year of service. That was before Alcantara exploded for a Cy Young-winning 2022 season but he was coming off a 3.19 ERA showing over 205 2/3 innings and had twice topped 30 starts in a season.

That Javier broke the record for his service group is impressive enough, though his camp’s stronger victory on the deal was in the absence of any club options at contract’s end. Alcantara’s extension came with a $21MM team option for a sixth season. Carlos Martínez, who had the second-largest guarantee among starters in the service class at $51MM, surrendered two team options. Nola agreed to one option in his $45MM deal over the 2018-19 offseason.

Javier didn’t need to do so. He secures his first life-changing guarantee and set the record for pitchers in the service bracket while still remaining in strong position for a strong free agent deal down the line. Javier is scheduled to hit free agency after his age-30 campaign, when a six-plus year contract would be on the table if he continues to perform as a borderline top-of-the-rotation starter.

The Astros don’t secure the extent of the long-term upside that’s typically present on extensions of this nature. They do tack on two more years of Javier’s services and the $21MM annual salary would be below his free agent market value if he stays healthy and performs at the level he has to this point in his career. Houston has arguably the sport’s best roster already and has taken another step towards extending that window with core players. Given the aggressiveness with which their new GM hammered out his first significant deal, it wouldn’t be a surprise if there were more on the horizon.

Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle first reported Javier was guaranteed $64MM, including a $2MM signing bonus, and that the deal didn’t contain any option years. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the yearly salary breakdown. Robert Murray of FanSided reported the presence of awards bonuses and escalators, with the Associated Press providing specifics on the bonus structure.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Mets Outright Khalil Lee

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Mets outfielder Khalil Lee has gone unclaimed on waivers and been sent outright to Triple-A Syracuse, according to his transactions log at MLB.com. He was designated for assignment earlier in the week after the Mets claimed reliever Sam Coonrod off waivers from the Phillies.

A report emerged last week that Lee was the subject of a civil action filed by his ex-girlfriend, who accused him of assaulting her last May. A misdemeanor arrest warrant charging Lee for criminal obstruction of breath was reportedly issued last August. The status of those criminal proceedings is unknown. Major League Baseball has reportedly opened an investigation under the joint domestic violence policy between the league and Players Association. The commissioner’s office is permitted to level disciplinary action under that policy even in the absence of a criminal conviction.

The 24-year-old outfielder has played in 13 games for the Mets over the past two seasons. He spent the bulk of last season with Syracuse, hitting .211/.326/.366 with 10 home runs and 14 stolen bases. He walked at a strong 11.2% clip but struck out in a third of his plate appearances.

Lee has never previously been outrighted and doesn’t have the requisite service time to refuse the assignment. He remains in the Mets’ organization but no longer occupies a 40-man roster spot.

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