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J.T. Brubaker

The Pirates’ Potential Rotation Trade Chip

By Anthony Franco | December 20, 2022 at 6:20pm CDT

Virtually all the attention on the Pirates’ trade possibilities this offseason has centered on All-Star outfielder Bryan Reynolds. Extension talks hit a snag, and Reynolds requested a trade. Pittsburgh has maintained they won’t move off their lofty asking price on the 27-year-old, who’s controllable for three more seasons. They seem open to offers but have at least signaled they won’t make a deal unless blown away by the package of young talent they’d receive.

Whether Reynolds gets dealt is one of the bigger remaining storylines of the offseason, but he’s certainly not the only player on the Pittsburgh roster who could attract attention. The Bucs have stockpiled a number of veterans on one-year commitments — Ji-Man Choi, Vince Velasquez and Austin Hedges among them — who could be midseason trade candidates. Star closer David Bednar would have a ton of appeal in the unlikely event the Pirates made him available. One player who has seemingly flown under the radar in rumors is JT Brubaker, but he seems the most plausible trade candidate in Pittsburgh’s rotation.

At first glance, it looks obvious why Brubaker hasn’t been the subject of much public trade speculation. He has pitched in three big league seasons and has a 4.99 ERA through 315 2/3 innings. The righty hasn’t posted an ERA better than this past season’s 4.69 mark in any of those years. Despite pitching his home games in a very favorable park, Brubaker hasn’t managed to keep runs off the board consistently. He’s not going to be a primary target for a win-now club that feels they’re a starter away from contention.

That said, teams will obviously look beyond a pitcher’s ERA in evaluating that player, and Brubaker has shown more promise than one might surmise with a cursory glance at his Baseball Reference page. ERA estimators like FIP and SIERA have viewed the Akron product more favorably than his ERA would suggest in all three of his big league campaigns. That’s a reflection of strikeout and walk numbers that’d look right in line with what one would expect from their fourth starter.

Brubaker has struck out 23-24% of opponents in all three seasons, while he’s kept his walk percentage in the 7-8% range. Over 144 innings in 2022, the former sixth-round draftee put up a 22.8% strikeout rate that was narrowly better than the 21.6% league average for starters. He walked 8.4% of batters faced, slightly higher than the 7.5% league mark. On a pitch-for-pitch basis, Brubaker also fared reasonably. He generated swinging strikes on 11.8% of his offerings, right in line with the rate from his prior two seasons. That’s a tick better than the 10.7% league figure.

It’s a fairly similar story from a batted ball perspective. Brubaker’s 44% grounder rate is fine, marginally better than par. Even his pitches themselves seem almost exactly average. His sinker checked in at 93.1 MPH this past season, which is middle-of-the-pack. Brubaker’s mid-80s slider is the highlight of his arsenal, a quality swing-and-miss pitch he uses with frequency against same-handed hitters. That’s his go-to offering once he gets ahead in the count against righties, and it has been effective at finishing off opponents when he needs a strikeout.

While Brubaker’s strikeout/walk profile is solid, his run prevention has yet to match up. That’s not entirely poor luck, as he’s given up a decent amount of hard contact. Left-handed hitters have given him real trouble, which isn’t especially surprising for a sinker-slider specialist who doesn’t regularly feature a changeup in his arsenal. Brubaker doesn’t have a great weapon to stay off barrels against lefty hitters, and they hit him hard in 2022. Over 298 plate appearances, opposing southpaws put a .269/.339/.481 line. While Brubaker induced grounders on over half his batted balls against right-handed opponents, lefties got the ball in the air roughly 65% of the time. Despite facing 50 more right-handed hitters on the season, he allowed three more homers to left-handed batters.

That’s a legitimate concern, and that contact profile partially explains the gap between his 4.99 career ERA and the more favorable marks from FIP (4.43) and SIERA (4.04). Without finding a better weapon against lefties, he’ll probably underperform those estimators to some extent. That said, he’s likely due for some positive regression, even if it’s not all the way to the 4.04 mark SIERA would suggest. Brubaker finished in the bottom 20 starters in left-on-base rate this year, and more favorable sequencing of the baserunners he allows should naturally improve his ERA. If another team feels confident in their ability to tinker with his repertoire or improve his changeup to better handle southpaws, they could eye him as an interesting change-of-scenery play.

To be clear, Brubaker isn’t going to come anywhere close to attracting the attention Reynolds or Bednar would on the trade market. Yet there’s some appeal for clubs in securing average to slightly below-average innings at little financial cost. The market for mid-tier starting pitchers has been extremely strong. Players like Taijuan Walker and Jameson Taillon secured four-year deals with underlying marks not much better than Brubaker’s. Brubaker wouldn’t have commanded that kind of outlay as a free agent given his platoon/hard contact issues. Yet one could argue he’s better than Kyle Gibson, who landed a $10MM guarantee from the Orioles for his age-35 season, or Jordan Lyles, who has agreed to terms on a two-year, $17MM pact with the Royals.

Brubaker turned 29 in November, and he’s controllable for three more seasons. Entering his first year of arbitration eligibility, he’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for an even $2MM salary. He’s affordable enough for any team, and while that includes the Pirates, they don’t seem likely to take an arbitration-eligible starter off the table as they continue their rebuild. Pittsburgh GM Ben Cherington and his staff don’t need to make a deal, but Brubaker’s not the type of player they’d steadfastly refuse to entertain relinquishing.

The free agent rotation market has gained plenty of steam the past few weeks. There hasn’t been any movement on the trade front for starting pitching, although that figures to pick up with the number of free agent hurlers dwindling. Brubaker wouldn’t be as exciting an addition as landing Pablo López or Trevor Rogers from the Marlins, but he should be on teams’ radars as a fallback target later in the winter.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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MLBTR Originals Pittsburgh Pirates Trade Candidate J.T. Brubaker

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IL Placements: Brubaker, Middleton

By Mark Polishuk | September 18, 2022 at 4:04pm CDT

Catching up on some injured-list transactions around baseball…

  • The Pirates placed right-hander JT Brubaker on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to September 16.  Right-hander Luis Ortiz was called up to take Brubaker’s spot on the active roster.  Brubaker was officially listed as sidelined due to right arm inflammation, though lat soreness was given as the reason for his early exit from Thursday’s game, when he lasted just three innings.  Over 141 1/3 innings and 27 starts for the Bucs this season, Brubaker has a 4.58 ERA and some unimpressive Statcast numbers, though his SIERA is a more favorable 3.95.  His ability to eat innings could put him in the conversation for a spot in Pittsburgh’s rotation next season, even if he doesn’t make it back for one more start in 2022.
  • The Diamondbacks placed right-hander Keynan Middleton on the 15-day IL due to a sprained left big toe.  Righty Luis Frias was called up from Triple-A in the corresponding move.  The toe sprain will likely end what has been an injury-plagued season for Middleton, who missed a couple of months due to elbow inflammation and a right ankle sprain.  Between the injuries and time in the minor leagues, Middleton was limited to 17 innings in 18 appearances with the D’Backs, and he posted a 5.29 ERA over that rather small sample size.  Now in his sixth MLB season, Middleton has yet to regain the early promise of his first two seasons with the Angels, before Tommy John surgery sidelined him in 2018.  He inked a minors deal with the D’Backs last winter and probably seems likely to be back on the open market this offseason in search of another non-guaranteed deal.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Pittsburgh Pirates Transactions J.T. Brubaker Keynan Middleton Luis Frias Luis Ortiz

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Pirates Claim Robert Stephenson, Designate Kevin Padlo

By Mark Polishuk | August 28, 2022 at 11:52am CDT

TODAY: The Pirates have officially added Stephenson to their active roster, with JT Brubaker headed to the paternity list in the corresponding move.

AUGUST 27: The Pirates have claimed right-hander Robert Stephenson off waivers from the Rockies.  Infielder Kevin Padlo was designated for assignment in the corresponding 40-man roster move, and the Pirates will make another move on their active roster when Stephenson joins the team.

Stephenson was DFA’ed by Colorado earlier this week, and didn’t last long on the waiver wire before the Pirates snatched him up.  It isn’t surprising to see the Bucs take a chance on a live arm who has some of the highest velocity of any pitcher in baseball, and Stephenson was also a former top prospect for the division-rival Reds during his minor league career.

That early promise led to some good results as a reliever in 2019 and 2021, but this season has been a struggle for the right-hander.  Stephenson has a 6.04 ERA over 44 2/3 innings, due to a below-average 18.8% strikeout rate and a lot of hard contact allowed.  As fast (97mph) as Stephenson’s average four-seamer may be, batters have hit .379 against the pitch.

If Pittsburgh’s coaching staff can get Stephenson back to his 2021 form, he’ll be a nice bullpen addition for the Pirates both for the remainder of this season and in 2023, as Stephenson still has a third and final season of arbitration eligibility remaining.  The righty is out of minor league options, so the Pirates would have a DFA decision to make of their own if they wanted to move Stephenson to the minors and off their 40-man roster.

Padlo is no stranger to the DFA carousel, as he has now been designated for assignment for the fifth time in a little over a year.  The Mariners claimed Padlo off waivers from the Rays in August 2021, starting a cycle that has been Padlo go from Seattle to the Giants, back to the Mariners, and then to Pittsburgh earlier this month when the Bucs claimed Padlo away from the M’s.

All of the movement has resulted in only 34 Major League plate appearances for Padlo this season (split over the Pirates, Mariners, and Giants), but he has performed well over 278 Triple-A PA.  The infielder has hit .270/.345/.484 with 12 homers and 13 doubles at the highest minor league level, continuing what has been a solid set of career Triple-A numbers.

Between that production and Padlo’s versatility as a third baseman who can be moved around the infield and into left field, it isn’t hard to see why teams keep having interest in Padlo, even if that interest has yet to manifest itself into a regular MLB job.  As such, it seems quite possible that another club might claim Padlo away from the Pirates.

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Colorado Rockies Pittsburgh Pirates Transactions J.T. Brubaker Kevin Padlo Robert Stephenson

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Pirates Place JT Brubaker, Duane Underwood Jr. On Injured List

By Darragh McDonald | September 5, 2021 at 12:18pm CDT

The Pirates announced a handful of roster moves today, placing right-handed pitchers JT Brubaker and Duane Underwood Jr. on the injured list, both with right shoulder inflammation. A couple of fellow righties, Kyle Keller and Shea Spitzbarth, are taking their place.

Brubaker has been one of the more reliable members of a Pirates club that is enduring a dismal season. His 124 1/3 innings lead the club by a significant margin, with Tyler Anderson and Wil Crowe being the only other Pirates with more than 80. Anderson, of course, isn’t even with the club anymore after being dealt to the Mariners before the trade deadline. Brubaker’s ERA isn’t great at 5.36, though his 24% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate are both slightly better than league average. He had just been activated off the injured list yesterday, after missing some time with a thumb contusion, but left his start after three innings.

Similarly, Underwood has been a solid-yet-unspectacular contributor out of the bullpen, throwing 72 2/3 innings with an ERA of 4.33. His 20.3% strikeout rate is a bit below average, though his 8.4% walk rate is slightly better than the league-wide rate of 8.7%.

With the club well out of contention, they can prioritize long-term health over short-term competitiveness at this stage of the season. Both Brubaker and Underwood are 27 years old and won’t yet be arbitration eligible by season’s end.

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Pittsburgh Pirates Duane Underwood J.T. Brubaker Kyle Keller Shea Spitzbarth

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Pirates Activate JT Brubaker, Option Kyle Keller

By TC Zencka | September 4, 2021 at 12:52pm CDT

The Pirates activated JT Brubaker to start today’s game against the Cubs. To make room on the roster, Kyle Keller was optioned to Triple-A, per Kevin Gorman of Tribune-ReviewSports (via Twitter).

The 27-year-old Brubaker has started a career-high 23 games for the Pirates, pitching to a 5.27 ERA/5.23 FIP in 121 1/3 innings. Brubaker may not be considered a long-term piece for Pittsburgh, but he has eaten valuable innings this year and will probably have the opportunity to do so again next season. He has a 23.7 percent strikeout rate, 6.9 percent walk rate, and 43.1 percent groundball rate, all of which are close to league average.

Keller has made 23 appearances out of the bullpen, pitching to a 7.13 ERA/7.62 FIP. The 28-year-old has suffered from wandering command, walking 16.1 percent of batters while only striking out 22.3 percent of opponents.

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Pittsburgh Pirates Transactions J.T. Brubaker Kyle Keller

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Pirates Designate Will Craig For Assignment

By Steve Adams | June 4, 2021 at 4:20pm CDT

The Pirates announced Friday that they’ve reinstated right-hander JT Brubaker from the Covid-19-related injured list and, in order to clear a spot on the 40-man roster, designated first baseman Will Craig for assignment. Brubaker was placed on the Covid list earlier this week when he went through intake testing after spending a few days on the bereavement list.

It’s been a tough week for Craig, who’ll unfortunately have a tough time living down last week’s defensive gaffe that saw Javier Baez dupe him into a rundown between first base and home plate when Erik Gonzalez sailed a throw from third base. The ensuing play was one of the more bizarre sequences in recent memory, resulting in a run for the Cubs and, somehow, Baez standing on second base after hitting a grounder to third that was both fielded cleanly and at least caught by the first baseman.

Of course, there’s far more to Craig than that one play. The 26-year-old was the 22nd overall pick of the 2016 draft and for several years rated as one of the Buccos’ more promising farmhands. He’s batted just .203/.261/.281 in a small sample of 20 Major League contests, but Craig clocked three homers and a pair of doubles in 29 Triple-A plate appearances before getting the call to the big leagues this year.

Craig has spent parts of two seasons in Triple-A and another in Double-A, producing eerily similar slash lines: .248/.321/.448 in a pitcher-friendly Double-A setting and .248/.323/.446 in a much more hitter-friendly Triple-A environment. It’s not the production the Pirates hoped for after he mashed at a .347/.461/.623 clip while starring for Wake Forest, but scouting reports on Craig as he was making his way through the Pittsburgh system credited him with a potentially average hit tool, above-average power and a plus throwing arm.

The Pirates have designated Craig once in the past, and he went unclaimed on waivers at that point. Because he’s already cleared waivers once, he’d have the ability to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency if he wants a fresh start in a new organization. The Bucs will have a week to either trade Craig or attempt to pass him through waivers a second time.

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Pittsburgh Pirates Transactions J.T. Brubaker Will Craig

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Pirates Activate Ke’Bryan Hayes, Option Wil Crowe

By Anthony Franco | June 3, 2021 at 4:24pm CDT

The Pirates are reinstating Ke’Bryan Hayes from the 60-day injured list, the team announced. Wil Crowe has been optioned to Triple-A Indianapolis to clear active roster space. Hayes is hitting second and starting at third base in this evening’s game against the Marlins.

Hayes is arguably the most important player in the Pirates organization, so his return is a welcome development for the team and its fans alike. The 24-year-old entered the year as a popular pick to win the NL Rookie of the Year award after he burst onto the scene in 2020. Hayes, known more for his elite glove than his bat in the minors, made his MLB debut last September and hit a spectacular .376/.442/.682 over his first 95 plate appearances. No one reasonably expected him to duplicate that kind of production, but the offensive outburst coupled with his sterling defensive reputation makes it easy to envision Hayes as a cornerstone position player whom the rebuilding club can build around over the next few years.

Unfortunately, a left wrist injury sent him to the injured list just two games into the regular season. While Hayes wasn’t initially expected to miss much time, he suffered a setback in late April that has kept him out of major league action for the past two months. In his absence, the Pirates have turned to Erik González, Phillip Evans and Wilmer Difo at the hot corner to dreadful results. Pittsburgh third basemen have hit just .201/.254/.282, which ties the Royals group for the worst offensive output at the position in the league.

Crowe, acquired from the Nationals as part of the Josh Bell deal last winter, has made eight appearances (seven starts) this season. They’ve not gone well, as the righty has only managed a 7.26 ERA/5.06 SIERA with worse than average strikeout and walk rates (19.3% and 11.7%, respectively). The Pirates viewed the 26-year-old as a big league ready rotation arm when they brought him in, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him back in the majors in relatively short order if he can get on track in Indianapolis. The 20-34 Bucs aren’t contenders, so the primary focus this season is determining whether younger, cost-controlled players like Crowe can be a part of the organization’s long-term future.

Hayes’ activation from the 60-day IL required the opening of a 40-man roster spot. Right-hander JT Brubaker, who went on bereavement leave last weekend, has been placed on the COVID-19 IL while he goes through intake testing protocols. That temporarily creates the 40-man vacancy for Hayes’ return, although the club will need to make another 40-man move once Brubaker clears the intake process.

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Pittsburgh Pirates Transactions J.T. Brubaker Ke'Bryan Hayes Wil Crowe

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Pirates Select Chase De Jong, Designate Ildemaro Vargas

By Anthony Franco | May 30, 2021 at 9:43am CDT

The Pirates announced they’ve selected the contract of right-hander Chase De Jong to start this afternoon’s game against the Rockies. In a corresponding move, infielder Ildemaro Vargas was designated for assignment. Righty JT Brubaker, meanwhile, will be away from the team temporarily on bereavement leave.

When he takes the mound this afternoon, De Jong will be appearing in the big leagues for the fifth consecutive season. Pitching for the Mariners, Twins and Astros during parts of the 2017-20 seasons, De Jong worked to a 7.12 ERA with poor strikeout and walk numbers (14.2% and 10.6%, respectively) in 15 appearances.

Despite his uninspiring major league resume, De Jong has pitched well since signing a minor league deal with Pittsburgh in January. Over four starts for Triple-A Indianapolis, the 27-year-old has worked to a 3.60 ERA across 20 innings, striking out a very strong 33.7% of opponents while walking an average 9.6%. It’s a small sample to be sure, but De Jong is punching out hitters much more often in 2021 than he has in any other Triple-A campaign, so the front office will give him an opportunity to try to carry over that success to the big leagues.

Vargas loses his roster spot less than two weeks after the Pirates claimed him off waivers from the Cubs. He’s picked up 37 plate appearances between Chicago and Pittsburgh this year and has hit just .239/.272/.368 in parts of five MLB seasons. The Pirates will have a week to trade Vargas or expose him to waivers. Having previously been outrighted in his career, the 29-year-old would have the right to reject a minor league assignment in lieu of free agency if he clears outright waivers.

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Pittsburgh Pirates Transactions Chase De Jong Ildemaro Vargas J.T. Brubaker

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