Click here to view the transcript of today’s chat with MLBTR’s Anthony Franco.
Latest On Jurickson Profar’s Market
Jurickson Profar is the top unsigned position player, with the switch-hitter still lingering on the open market after opting out of his deal with the Padres. Even with Spring Training a few weeks out, there isn’t much clarity on his likely landing spot.
The Rangers, Marlins, Red Sox, Astros, Rockies and Yankees have all been loosely tied to him at points this offseason. Houston and Boston have made other significant left field acquisitions (Michael Brantley and Masataka Yoshida, respectively). Colorado’s reported interest was fairly quickly downplayed, while Miami has since moved Jazz Chisholm Jr. into center field — thereby pushing players like Bryan De La Cruz and Jesús Sánchez into the left field conversation.
While the Yankees still have a questionable left field mix, it doesn’t appear they’re planning to further push payroll. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported last week the club doesn’t want to exceed the fourth and final luxury-tax barrier, set at $293MM for the 2023 season. That’d leave them with essentially no breathing room unless they shed some money in a trade. Even in that instance, pivoting back to Profar might not be in the cards. Brendan Kuty of the Athletic wrote this morning the team has been deterred by Profar’s asking price. General manager Brian Cashman indicated on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM over the weekend that Aaron Hicks was likely to get the first crack in left field (h/t to Bryan Hoch of MLB.com).
Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic, meanwhile, reported yesterday the Orioles have been involved in the Profar market. The asking price might prove too rich for Baltimore’s taste as well, as Rosenthal adds the front office isn’t particularly bullish on their chances of getting a deal done.
Profar would be a curious fit for the Orioles even before considering the financial implications. While he began his career as a middle infielder, he rated poorly as a defender. That was largely due to throwing accuracy issues, which peaked in 2019 when he committed 11 throwing errors from second base as a member of the Athletics. Since that year, he’s primarily been limited to corner outfield work. Profar picked up sporadic action on the right side of the infield in 2020-21 and didn’t play anywhere other than left field last year.
It’s likely most clubs wouldn’t view him as more than an emergency option anywhere outside the corner outfield. Baltimore doesn’t have a path to at-bats in either left or right field at the moment. Austin Hays and Anthony Santander make for a capable tandem. Santander has more power than Profar does. Hays and Profar have produced at similar levels the last couple seasons, so it’s not likely Baltimore views the free agent as a significant upgrade.
That said, a run at Profar could have freed the O’s up to deal one of their in-house outfielders. General manager Mike Elias noted last week the team is still looking for ways to bolster the rotation, and Rosenthal writes they’re considering trade possibilities for starting pitching. Hays or Santander could appeal to a club that’s willing to market a back-end starter in search of an immediate outfield upgrade — speculatively speaking, the Brewers and Rangers could fit the mold — but a trade would leave the O’s to lean heavily on rookie Kyle Stowers unless they subsequently add experienced outfield help.
While it’s difficult to find a perfect landing spot for Profar, he’s a decent everyday left fielder. A switch-hitter with quality contact skills and a patient approach, he’s hit at an above-average level in two of the past three years. Profar was a lineup staple last season in San Diego, appearing in 152 games and tallying 658 plate appearances. He hit .243/.331/.391 with 15 home runs and 36 doubles. That production checked in 10 percentage points above league average, by measure of wRC+, once one accounts for the league-wide drop in power and the pitcher-friendly nature of Petco Park.
Profar is still just 30 years old and has a case for a multi-year deal on the heels of that solid season. That was surely his expectation when he forewent the final $6.5MM on his contract with the Friars at the start of the offseason. He should still be able to top that, though his lengthy stay on the open market would seem to suggest he hasn’t found the level of interest his camp was anticipating. Michael Conforto and Trey Mancini each secured opt-out clauses on two-year guarantees this offseason, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Profar do the same once he finally agrees to terms. Topping the $14MM guaranteed to Mancini — who’s a year older and coming off a lesser offensive showing — should be attainable.
The Rangers, where Profar began his career after rating as a top prospect, still need to upgrade in left field via free agency or trade. The Padres could circle back given the front office’s longstanding affinity for the outfielder, though they might be nearing their spending limit. That’s also true of the Braves and Dodgers, two contenders who have room for left field upgrades on paper. A retooling club like the Royals or Tigers could eye Profar as a deadline trade candidate. That’d likely only be appealing if he doesn’t secure an opt-out possibility, which would otherwise significantly reduce his trade appeal. If Profar lingers on the market much longer, it’s possible that inevitable injuries around the league early in spring training could create a new opportunity or two, although his preference is surely to be signed by the time camps begin to open.
Mariners Outright Alberto Rodriguez
The Mariners announced that minor league outfielder Alberto Rodriguez has gone unclaimed on waivers. He’ll stick in the organization at High-A Everett on outright assignment.
Rodriguez entered the professional ranks as an amateur signee of the Blue Jays in 2017. He was dealt to Seattle three years later as part of the trade that sent Taijuan Walker to Toronto. The left-handed hitter drew some attention from prospect evaluators for his power upside and was regarded as a possible future right fielder. The M’s put him on their 40-man roster last winter to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft.
He spent his entire age-21 campaign in High-A on optional assignment. Rodriguez hit .261/.336/.396 with 10 home runs across 527 plate appearances. That’s decent production but not overwhelming for a bat-first prospect. More concerning, he went down on strikes in more than 26% of his trips. That dealt enough of a hit to Rodriguez’s long-term value that Seattle took him off the 40-man to claim J.B. Bukauskas last week.
The M’s took the risk of losing Rodriguez, but no other team was willing to devote him a 40-man spot either. He’ll remain in the system as an upside flier for the Seattle player development staff, where the M’s can monitor the progress of his bat-to-ball skills as he tries to work his way to the big leagues.
Blue Jays, Wynton Bernard Agree To Minor League Contract
The Blue Jays are signing outfielder Wynton Bernard to a minor league deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (on Twitter). The 32-year-old will be in big league Spring Training as a non-roster invitee.
Bernard has spent over a decade in the professional ranks. Initially a 35th-round pick of the Padres in 2012, the Niagara product landed with the Tigers on a minor league deal a couple seasons later. He’s typically hit well enough in the minors to continue to find opportunities, landing subsequent depth roles with the Giants, Cubs and Rockies. He continued to bide his time in search of an MLB look.
At long last, he earned that desired call late last summer. Bernard had mashed at a .333/.387/.590 clip through 108 games with the Rox’s top affiliate in Albuquerque, connecting on 21 home runs and stealing 30 bases in 35 tries. The Rockies brought him up in mid-August, where he got some limited runtime in the outfield. He appeared in 12 MLB games, hitting .286/.286/.310 over his first 42 trips to the plate. Colorado ran him through outright waivers at the end of the year, sending him back to minor league free agency.
While it was a brief first MLB call, it no doubt served as some vindication for the San Diego native. Bernard’s 2022 showing was aided to some extent by the Pacific Coast League’s extremely hitter-friendly environment, but he’s typically performed at an above-average level throughout his time in the minors. He’s a career .289/.350/.424 minor league hitter, sporting a .273/.328/.435 mark through parts of six Triple-A campaigns.
Bernard is an excellent runner who’s capable of covering all three outfield spots. He’ll slot in behind Nathan Lukes — who was added to the 40-man roster at the start of the offseason — as a speed/defense depth outfielder. Bernard figures to open the season with Triple-A Buffalo. He still has two option years remaining, so the Jays would be able to shuttle him between Toronto and Buffalo if he claims a 40-man spot at any point.
Red Sox, Matt Dermody Agree To Minor League Deal
The Red Sox are signing left-hander Matt Dermody to a minor league contract, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive (Twitter link). He’ll get a crack in big league camp as a non-roster invitee.
Dermody, 32, has pitched in parts of four MLB campaigns. He got the briefest of looks last season, making one appearance for the Cubs in August. He’d also had a lone outing for Chicago back in 2020, with his only extended work 22 1/3 frames for the 2017 Blue Jays. The Iowa native has a 5.60 ERA over 27 1/3 big league innings.
A reliever for the majority of his career, Dermody picked up 13 starts in 20 outings for the Cubs’ top affiliate in Iowa last season. He threw 79 1/3 innings with a 3.74 ERA in a hitter-friendly league. His 20.3% strikeout percentage was modest, but Dermody picked up grounders on a bit more than half the balls in play. He also showed excellent control, only handing out free passes to 5.2% of batters faced.
Late in the 2022 campaign, Dermody landed with the NC Dinos of the Korea Baseball Organization. He made eight starts there but got hit to a 4.54 ERA over 39 2/3 frames. He struck out 20.7% of batters faced against a 7.3% walk rate. After a brief sojourn to South Korea, he’ll return to the affiliated ranks and look to pitch his way back to the big leagues in Boston.
Dermody can offer the Sox some depth for both the rotation or bullpen. He’s more likely to eventually crack the MLB roster in a relief capacity. The Sox watched Matt Strahm depart in free agency and have dealt away Darwinzon Hernández and Josh Taylor this offseason.
Joely Rodríguez is the only lock for left-handed relief work to start the season. Prospects Brandon Walter and Chris Murphy are each on the 40-man roster and have topped out at Triple-A Worcester. They’ve both worked as starters in the minors but could theoretically break into the big leagues as relief options. The Sox also added Ryan Sherriff as a non-roster Spring Training invitee over the weekend.
Bruce Sherman: Sale Of Marlins Not Under Consideration
Marlins owner Bruce Sherman released a statement this afternoon reaffirming his commitment to lasting ownership of the franchise.
“The Miami Marlins are not for sale, have not been for sale under my ownership, and will not be for sale in my lifetime. It is irresponsible to report otherwise,” Sherman said (via Jordan McPherson and Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald). “It is and will continue to be a privilege to own this great organization. I look forward to seeing our loyal fans at Opening Day on March 30.”
The announcement comes in response to a column from the Los Angeles Times on Tuesday morning. That report cited MLB sources suggesting the Miami organization could hit the market at some point soon. There’d been no previous indication of the Marlins potentially changing hands, and Sherman’s forceful pushback represents a firm declaration that won’t happen.
Sherman made similar sentiments in an interview with the Herald last September. “No, I have never considered selling the team,” he said at the time. “I am more deeply invested in the team’s success now than ever. I’m looking forward to reaching the playoffs, returning the World Series trophy to South Florida, and making this community proud of its hometown team.”
The Marlins are only a few years removed from an ownership change. Jeffrey Loria officially dealt the franchise to the Sherman/Derek Jeter group in October 2017. While Jeter was the higher-profile member of the group, Sherman has been majority owner for the entire time. Jeter departed the organization last offseason.
Upon taking over, the Sherman ownership group cut player payroll. Miami’s season-opening payroll had been at $115MM during the final year of Loria’s ownership, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Under Sherman’s ownership, the franchise hasn’t topped $100MM in player spending. That’s likely set to change this year, with Roster Resource projecting their spending around $103MM.
Cubs Outright Anthony Kay, Manuel Rodriguez
The Cubs informed reporters that pitchers Anthony Kay and Manuel Rodríguez have each gone unclaimed on waivers (via Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune). Both players have been sent outright to Triple-A Iowa. It’s the first outright assignment for both, meaning they’ll each stay in the organization but won’t occupy a spot on the 40-man roster.
Kay’s stay on the Chicago 40-man lasted only a few weeks. The Cubs nabbed the southpaw off waivers from the Blue Jays just before Christmas but designated him for assignment last Friday after signing Trey Mancini. The moves allow them to roll the dice on a former first-round pick without dedicating a roster spot. Kay has pitched briefly at the MLB level with Toronto in each of the last four seasons. He’s only managed a 5.48 ERA through 70 2/3 career innings, plagued both by an 11.4% walk percentage and a hefty .340 batting average on balls in play against him.
The 27-year-old has shown some swing-and-miss upside amidst his early struggles. He owns a solid 23.5% strikeout percentage during his MLB time, generating whiffs on a reasonable 10.4% of his offerings. Kay has an almost identical 23.6% strikeout rate over parts of four minor league campaigns.
Rodríguez, 26, has spent his entire career with the Cubs but was designated for assignment a week ago after Chicago claimed Julian Merryweather. He nabbed a spot on the 40-man roster over the 2019-20 offseason and reached the MLB level a little over a year thereafter. The righty has pitched out of David Ross’ bullpen in each of the last two seasons. He’s worked 31 1/3 innings across 34 total appearances, posting a 4.88 ERA. That has come with concerning strikeout and walk rates (17.5% and 15%, respectively), but the sinkerballer has generated grounders at a quality 53.2% clip.
Owner of a fastball that sits in the 96-97 MPH range, Rodríguez offers an intriguing power arm the Cubs will retain at the upper levels. The native of Mexico has a 4.51 ERA through 145 2/3 minor league innings. He’s struggled to throw strikes at the lower levels as well, though he’s been far more effective in the minors at missing bats (career 31.4% strikeout percentage).
Given their respective MLB experience, Kay and Rodríguez both look likely to secure non-roster invitations to Spring Training in a few weeks. If they don’t crack the roster out of camp, they’ll each open the year as depth options in Iowa. Both players would qualify for minor league free agency at the end of next season if they’re not added back to the 40-man roster before the end of the year.
White Sox Showing Trade Interest In Nicky Lopez
The White Sox have expressed interest in acquiring Royals infielder Nicky Lopez, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). There’s no indication discussions have gained traction, as Rosenthal notes that Kansas City isn’t anxious to deal the Creighton product.
Lopez, 28 in March, has spent his entire career with the Royals. He reached the majors in 2019, hitting .240/.276/.325 in 103 games as a rookie. He had a similarly rough offensive showing during his second season but earned elite marks for his second base work. Lopez’s +9 defensive runs saved during the shortened season tied for the league lead at the position, earning him another look in 2021.
The left-handed hitter looked to have taken a step forward offensively that season, at least on the surface. He posted a .300/.365/.378 line over 565 trips to the plate, with that offense checking in a hair above league average. That required a lofty .347 batting average on balls in play which he never seemed likely to sustain, and his batted ball metrics weren’t much different than those of his first two seasons. Lopez’s production indeed fell back last season, as he hit .227/.281/.273 without a home run in 480 trips to the plate.
Lopez was one of two hitters (Myles Straw being the other) who tallied 450+ plate appearances without connecting on a home run. He and Straw tied for the game’s second-lowest slugging output, narrowly topping that of Geraldo Perdomo, while ranking in the bottom 10 in hard contact. That lack of power makes him very reliant on turning grounders into singles to drive his offensive profile. That happened in 2021, but his overall .252/.309/.321 career line checks in 27 percentage points below league average as measured by wRC+.
The White Sox, of course, are eying Lopez for other reasons. While he has only slightly above-average pure speed, he’s an instinctive baserunner who has successfully stolen 36 bags in 40 attempts over the past two seasons. That skillset could take on a bit more value in 2023, as the league is introducing limits on the number of pickoff attempts/step-offs a pitcher can deploy in an at-bat.
More importantly, Lopez has shown the potential for excellent infield defense. DRS bizarrely graded him as eight runs below average at second base in 2022, but that’s an anomaly compared to his strong career marks. Statcast estimated him as three runs above average at the keystone and 5 runs above par through 406 innings of shortstop work last season. Both metrics pegged him as a quality defender at each middle infield spot in previous years.
Chicago obviously views Lopez as a potential target for their uncertain second base mix. Tim Anderson and Yoán Moncada will cover the left side of the infield. Second base is far less settled. Romy González and Lenyn Sosa look the present favorites for reps, with veteran utilityman Leury García also in the mix. Lopez doesn’t bring a ton of offensive upside but would raise the floor with his glove and baserunning.
The Royals have a somewhat questionable second base mix of their own, though, apparently lessening their desire to part with Lopez. Michael Massey is the top option after hitting .243/.307/.376 over 52 games as a rookie. That was a fine but hardly overwhelming debut showing, leaving the possibility that K.C. pivots back to Lopez if Massey scuffles. The Royals already thinned out their overall infield depth this morning by dealing Adalberto Mondesi to the Red Sox.
Lopez and the Royals agreed to a $3.7MM salary to avoid arbitration earlier this offseason. He’s under club control for three years, including the upcoming campaign.
Jeff Kent Falls Off Hall Of Fame Ballot
Former second baseman Jeff Kent has been up for Hall of Fame consideration for a decade, with this year marking his last crack at induction via the Baseball Writers Association of America. Kent received 46.5% of the the vote during this cycle, well shy of the 75% needed for induction. He falls off the ballot and will no longer be considered by the BBWAA.
Kent hovered in the 25-50% vote share range for his final four seasons. He never seemed in danger of falling below the 5% threshold that cuts players from the ballot early but also didn’t get the kind of late momentum needed to vault him within striking range of induction. If he’s to be enshrined in Cooperstown, that’ll now have to come via the Era Committee. The Contemporary Baseball Era Players Committee met this winter — enshrining Fred McGriff in the process — meaning the earliest Kent will be under consideration again is the 2025-26 offseason.
A right-handed hitter, Kent was one of the game’s better power bats over his 17-year MLB career. He played just under 2300 games for six different clubs, with his best seasons coming as a member of the Giants. Kent hit .297/.368/.535 during a six-year stretch in San Francisco spanning 1997-2002. He received MVP votes in five of those campaigns and won the award in 2000 thanks to a massive .334/.424/.596 showing with 33 longballs.
Kent finished his career with a .290/.356/.500 line in more than 9500 plate appearances. His 377 career homers are the most by any primary second baseman, while he collected 2461 hits, drove in 1518 runs and scored 1320 times. He was a five-time All-Star and secured four Silver Slugger awards while winning the aforementioned MVP. Strong as his offensive contributions were, Kent faced plenty of questions about his glove at the keystone. Those defensive concerns dissuaded enough voters to keep him from induction.
While Kent was the only player to “age” off the ballot this year, a number of first-time candidates unsurprisingly dropped out after not reaching the 5% threshold to last another season. Bronson Arroyo, R.A. Dickey, John Lackey, Mike Napoli, Huston Street, Matt Cain, Jacoby Ellsbury, Andre Ethier, J.J. Hardy, Jhonny Peralta, Jered Weaver and Jayson Werth each fall out of future consideration.
Among first-time candidates, just two topped the 5% mark to remain on the ballot for at least another year. Carlos Beltrán debuted at 46.5% and would seem to have a solid chance at induction at some point down the line. Francisco Rodríguez has a more uphill battle after starting off at 10.8% of the vote.
Marlins, Devin Smeltzer Agree To Minor League Contract
The Marlins are in agreement with left-hander Devin Smeltzer on a minor league deal, reports Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase (Twitter link). The deal, which contains a non-roster invitation to Spring Training, would pay the ISE Baseball client at a $1MM rate for any time spent in the majors.
Smeltzer has pitched in the majors in each of the past four seasons with the Twins. He’s started 19 of 34 career outings, tallying 140 innings of 3.99 ERA ball at the highest level. Roughly half of that experience came last year, when he was tabbed for 12 starts and a trio of relief appearances that totaled 70 1/3 frames. Smeltzer pitched to a solid 3.71 ERA but without many whiffs or ground balls.
The 27-year-old struck out 13.9% of opponents on a modest 7.4% swinging strike rate. The lack of missed bats isn’t all that surprising for a pitcher who averaged 89.5 MPH on his fastball. Smeltzer compensates for his subpar velocity with strong control. He walked only 6.6% of opposing hitters last season and has doled out free passes at just a 6.4% clip for his MLB career. It was a similar story with Triple-A St. Paul, where he posted a 6.9% walk percentage against a better but hardly overwhelming 20.3% strikeout rate.
Smeltzer’s solid run prevention at the MLB level would’ve been hard to replicate. He benefited from a .252 batting average on balls in play while stranding nearly 83% of the baserunners he allowed. ERA estimators like FIP and SIERA both pegged his work more in the 5.00 range than the sub-4.00 territory he actually managed, and the Twins ran him through outright waivers at the end of the season. Upon clearing, he qualified for minor league free agency.
The former fifth-round pick adds an experienced control specialist to the upper levels of the Miami organization. He owns a 4.40 ERA through parts of five minor league campaigns, walking just 5.5% of opponents along the way. He has experience both starting and working multiple innings out of the bullpen and could factor into either role at some point in 2023. Miami has a deep rotation mix even after trading Pablo López last week, so it seems likely Smeltzer will open the season with Triple-A Jacksonville. He’s out of minor league option years, meaning the Marlins would have to keep him in the majors or offer him to other teams via trade or waivers if he earns an MLB call at any point.
