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Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

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After a few years of near-misses, the Astros returned to the top of the league in 2022 by claiming their second title in franchise history. They’ve won 100-plus games in four of the last five full seasons and will be one of the top handful of championship favorites next season. Expectations are high as ever in Houston, but months of tension in the front office culminated in a change atop baseball operations just days after their parade. The Astros are suddenly one of the league’s more unpredictable teams going into the offseason — but there’s no question any moves are going to be geared towards maximizing their chances of a repeat.

Guaranteed Contracts

Other commitments: $2MM buyout on Pedro Báez option, $1MM buyout on Will Smith option, $250K buyout on Trey Mancini option

Total future commitments: $373.75MM
Total 2023 commitments: $121.25MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parenthesis, projections via Matt Swartz)

Non-tendered: Josh James

Total arbitration projection: $27.1MM

Free Agents

For a remarkable sixth straight season, the Astros advanced to the AL Championship Series in 2022. The past four years had seen the season end on a disappointing note, with a defeat in either the ALCS or the World Series. That wasn’t to be this year, as the 106-win team swept the Yankees to secure the fifth pennant in franchise history. They finished the job with three straight wins after going down 2-1 against the Phillies, claiming the organization’s second World Series title.

With that kind of success, one would assume the good vibes would continue into the offseason. Towards the end of the year, however, reports emerged about tension behind the scenes — primarily between owner Jim Crane and general manager James Click. As Houston’s lead baseball executive saw his contract expire, the Astros entered the offseason with uncertainty about their long-term direction. Things came to a head when Crane offered Click a one-year contract extension — a proposal below the norm for an executive whose team had accomplished what the Astros have over the past three seasons. Click declined, and the Astros let him go thereafter.

For the first time in three-quarters of a century, the defending World Series winners parted with their baseball operations leader. Houston enters the offseason without a GM, and it doesn’t seem as if they’re in any rush to fill the vacancy. Crane told Brian McTaggart of MLB.com last week he doesn’t envision hiring a new GM until after the calendar flips to 2023. In the meantime, the atypical front office structure sees Crane intricately involved in baseball decision-making. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported Crane personally oversaw the team’s first major offseason roster move — re-signing free agent reliever Rafael Montero on a three-year, $34.5MM deal that fairly easily surpassed expectations. Assistant GM’s Bill Firkus, Andrew Ball and Charles Cook are on hand to help shoulder day-to-day responsibilities.

There’s not a ton of clarity about how exactly things are playing out in the offices at Minute Maid Park, but it seems Crane is as or more involved in key decisions than any of his ownership peers. That’s not entirely new — he directly negotiated a contract with Justin Verlander last offseason and reportedly killed a deadline agreement to bring in Willson Contreras from the Cubs — but it makes Houston one of the more fascinating teams to watch.

Crane and his front office have plenty of decisions to make with a handful of key free agents. They’re already brought back Montero, but perhaps the biggest question is the same one they faced last winter: do they retain Verlander? They did so last year, but the circumstances are far different this time around. Last year, the future Hall of Famer was coming off nearly two full seasons lost to Tommy John surgery. They monitored his progress and guaranteed him $25MM on a bounceback, but they’d have to offer up quite a bit more to keep him in 2023 and beyond. Verlander responded to Houston’s gesture of faith with a Cy Young-winning campaign that saw him lead the majors with a 1.75 ERA through 175 innings.

Now, Verlander’s looking at multi-year offers that easily beat $25MM annually. Crane suggested to McTaggart that Verlander is seeking a pact rivaling or topping the three-year, $130MM deal secured by Max Scherzer last winter. Those comments could get the team in some hot water with the MLB Players Association — the CBA prohibits club personnel from airing a free agent’s asking price while speaking with the media — but it’s not an especially surprising revelation. Scherzer is the closest comparable for a recent aging, future Hall of Fame pitcher still working near the top of his game, although Scherzer was more than two years younger during his free agent trip than Verlander is now.

Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle has already reported the Astros are reluctant to go to three guaranteed years as a result. That raises the real possibility of the nine-time All-Star heading elsewhere after four-plus seasons in Houston. Needless to say, losing a pitcher of Verlander’s caliber would weaken the roster, although the Astros are as well-equipped as a team could be to withstand his potential departure.

The rotation still runs six deep among promising options under club control. Framber Valdez finished fifth in Cy Young balloting this past season and is capable of fronting a staff. Cristian Javier struck out a third of his opponents en route to a 2.54 ERA through 148 2/3 innings. He’s perhaps not yet a household name nationally, but his performance through his first three big league campaigns has bordered on elite. Lance McCullers Jr. is an upper mid-rotation caliber starter when healthy, and he’s only headed into the second season of a five-year extension.

That’s still a strong top three, while Houston has a handful of options at the back end. Luis Garcia has a 3.60 ERA across 312 2/3 innings the last two years. He hit a rough patch midseason but righted the ship during the final few weeks and has a strong multi-year track record. José Urquidy — who would’ve gone to the Cubs had the Contreras trade been approved — is the favorite for the #5 job. He doesn’t have eye-popping velocity or whiff rates, but he’s an excellent control artist who hasn’t posted an ERA above 4.00 in any of his four MLB seasons. Urquidy is the least exciting of the group, but he’s a rock-solid 4th/5th starter for a contender.

Dealing either of Garcia or Urquidy this offseason could be on the table. The front office showed a willingness to move from their rotation surplus to address other areas of the roster in the Urquidy – Contreras tentative agreement at the deadline. Crane killed the deal, but that was reportedly more a reflection of the team’s preference not to unseat Martín Maldonado behind the dish than it was a declaration Urquidy was unavailable. Urquidy still has three seasons of arbitration control remaining and is projected for a modest $3.2MM salary in 2023; Garcia, who’s yet to reach arbitration and controllable for four years, would have very strong trade appeal if Houston fielded offers.

Of course, the team would have less rotation depth heading into 2023 if Verlander did sign elsewhere. That could point towards an increased desire to stockpile in-house pitching, but Houston also could try to expand the role for their top prospect. Hunter Brown reached the big leagues the final month of this year. He started just two of his first seven outings, but it stands to reason the team would prefer to give him a long-term shot in the starting staff. Brown was dominant in his early big league look, allowing just two runs with a 22:7 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 20 1/3 innings.

No team can count on their same five starters all season, and perhaps the Astros are content to begin with Brown in the bullpen before stretching him out as a starter when injuries inevitably dictate turning to a depth option. Players like J.P. France and Brandon Bielak are on hand as additional depth, and Houston could turn to a lower-cost free agent swingman in the Trevor Williams or Chad Kuhl mold if they wind up dealing one of their starters.

Trading a starter would only be as a means of adding immediate help somewhere on the roster with more uncertainty. A few of those stand out, largely because of possible free agent defections. The Astros are going to have to bring in a first baseman via free agency or trade. Yuli Gurriel and Trey Mancini are each free agents and didn’t play all that well in 2022 regardless. Houston was linked to Anthony Rizzo before he re-signed with the Yankees, and they’re a viable fit for any of Josh Bell, José Abreu, Luke Voit or even a lower-cost Gurriel reunion. On the trade market, players like Rhys Hoskins or Rowdy Tellez could be available.

The rest of the infield is already in place, with José Altuve, Jeremy Peña and Alex Bregman locked in around the diamond. Altuve and Bregman still have multiple seasons remaining on contract extensions, while Peña has five seasons of club control following a fantastic rookie year. Aledmys Díaz is headed to free agency, but the respective presences of Mauricio Dubón and David Hensley should allow him to seamlessly replace him in a utility role. The outfield is a little less settled, with left field the primary area of concern with Michael Brantley heading to free agency.

Yordan Alvarez split his time between designated hitter and left field this past season. The superstar slugger will be in the lineup every day in some capacity, though where is to be determined by the club’s offseason moves. Click had told Rome shortly after the season ended the club considered Alvarez a possible everyday left fielder; it remains to be seen whether a Crane-led front office feels the same way. There are a handful of decent mid-tier corner outfielders who should be available in either free agency or trade. Mitch Haniger, Andrew Benintendi and Jurickson Profar are on the open market, while players like Jesse Winker, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. or Alex Verdugo could find themselves on the move via trade.

If the Astros are content with Alvarez playing left field, that’d open up the possibility for a more impactful offensive splash via the DH. Houston has again been linked to Contreras — now a free agent, albeit one who’d cost a signing team a draft choice after turning down a qualifying offer — at the start of this winter. Signing Contreras is likely to require the kind of four-plus year commitment the Astros have been reluctant to make under Crane, but he’d add to an already elite lineup and have the ability to rotate between DH and catcher.

Houston has inquired about possible impact center fielders in recent years, even as Chas McCormick has done well when given opportunities. The 27-year-old had a great postseason on both sides of the ball and should have the inside track on the center field job, but Houston could at least kick the tires on potential upgrades there as well. Bryan Reynolds has been a longtime trade target for a number of teams but still seems unlikely to leave Pittsburgh. The Diamondbacks have a few young center field-capable outfielders and could have interest in Houston’s rotation depth in a deal involving Alek Thomas or Jake McCarthy. Brandon Nimmo is the only free agent center fielder (aside from Aaron Judge) who’s clearly better than McCormick; Houston will probably check in but seems an unlikely fit for a nine-figure investment in center field. There’s no need for any changes in the final outfield spot, with Kyle Tucker controllable for three more seasons in right.

Maldonado is back at catcher for another season after vesting a $4.5MM option in his contract. He’s a non-factor offensively, but he’s beloved in the Houston clubhouse for his leadership skills. They’ll need a complement to him with Christian Vázquez and Jason Castro both hitting free agency, although well-regarded prospect Yainer Díaz has a bat-first skillset that makes for an interesting complement. The Astros will probably at least dip into the market for a veteran depth player, and their reported interest in Contreras hints at the potential for a bigger splash to split time at catcher and DH.

The only other area of even moderate concern is in the bullpen. Houston had a top three relief corps in 2022, and bringing back Montero to join Héctor Neris, Ryne Stanek and Bryan Abreu in bridging the gap to All-Star closer Ryan Pressly does a lot of the heavy lifting. Houston’s very thin from the left side, though, with Blake Taylor and Parker Mushinski representing their top options. Will Smith performed well after being acquired from the Braves in a deadline swap for Jake Odorizzi. The Astros bought out a $13MM option that always looked a bit hefty, but a reunion on a lower salary could be plausible. Andrew Chafin, Taylor Rogers, Matt Moore and Joely Rodríguez are among the other free agent options who could be of interest.

There are a few ways the offseason could go, and the Astros should have the financial ability to build upon their already great roster. The club’s current 2023 payroll estimate is a bit above $160MM, around $15MM shy of this year’s Opening Day mark and almost $27MM below the franchise-record level, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Their luxury tax figure is in the $179MM range, according to Roster Resource, $54MM shy of the $233MM base tax threshold. Houston’s farm system has thinned out — both because of years of picking towards the back of the first round and draft pick forfeiture as punishment for the 2017 sign-stealing scheme. That could lead to a preference for free agency over the trade market, but the interest in a qualified free agent like Contreras suggests they’re not opposed to continue surrendering future value as they look to cement themselves as a true dynasty. Coming off the revenue bump associated with a World Series, Crane will surely be aggressive in attacking the roster’s weakest points in some capacity.

In so doing, he’ll provide insight into how he prefers to build a roster. Reports have suggested Crane took issue with Click’s patience, with the owner favoring more bold strikes. How that manifests itself in the coming months will be fascinating, but no matter the club’s ultimate offseason path, one thing is certain. The Astros have one of the sport’s best rosters and will go into 2023 as one of the favorites for another championship.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held an Astros-centric chat on 11-23-22. Click here to view the transcript.

Astros Sign Hitting Coach Alex Cintron To Multi-Year Extension

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The Astros have taken some steps towards preserving continuity on the coaching staff. Co-hitting coaches Alex Cintrón and Troy Snitker are returning in the same roles, they informed reporters (including Mark Berman of Fox 26 and Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reports that Cintrón signed an extension that keeps him under contract through 2025.

The multi-year deal for Cintrón could be tied to some interest from a competitor. Rome writes the 43-year-old interviewed with the Blue Jays in their search for a bench coach to work alongside skipper John Schneider. His new deal with Houston forecloses the possibility of him heading north of the border. The Cintrón/Snitker pairing has worked together since the start of the 2019 season, guiding an extremely talented lineup to excellent results. Houston trails only the Dodgers in runs scored over the last four years. They were eighth in runs this past season, and they placed seventh in on-base percentage (.319) and fifth in slugging (.424).

Rome also reports the Astros have agreed to a new deal with pitching coach Josh Miller. He’ll be back for a second season. Miller was promoted to co-pitching coach alongside Bill Murphy after the departure of Brent Strom last offseason. The duo inherited an excellent pitching infrastructure and plenty of talent, but they also seem to have taken on their greater responsibilities very well. Only the Dodgers allowed fewer runs this year, while the Mets were the sole team to beat Astros pitchers’ 26% strikeout rate. The contract status of Murphy hasn’t yet been reported.

Other than Murphy, most of the key members of the coaching staff are slated to return on the heels of the World Series win. Dusty Baker will get a fourth season at the helm, and he’ll be joined by his co-hitting coaches and at least one of this past season’s pitching coaches. Bench coach Joe Espada and first base Omar López were previously reported to be back themselves.

Nick Senzel Undergoes Toe Surgery, Expected To Be Ready For Spring Training

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Reds outfielder Nick Senzel underwent surgery to repair a fractured toe on his left foot last week, reports Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. He’s expected to be ready for Spring Training, but it looks as if his offseason routine could be impacted to some extent.

Senzel fractured the toe after he crashed into the outfield wall in pursuit of a fly ball in September. The injury ended his season a couple weeks early, and Nightengale writes that recent imaging showed the toe wasn’t healing itself properly, necessitating surgery. Despite the early conclusion, Senzel saw the most action of his MLB career in 2022. He appeared in 110 games and tallied 420 plate appearances, narrowly topping marks he established as a rookie in 2019.

It was another tough year for the former second overall pick, who managed only a .231/.296/.306 line with five home runs. Senzel also rated 11 runs below average defensively in center field, and both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference graded his overall performance below replacement level. The University of Tennessee product has now tallied just north of 1000 big league plate appearances over the last four years, hitting .240/.303/.360.

That kind of production is surely not what the Reds had envisioned when selecting Senzel so highly in the draft. That said, it’s also possible injuries have conspired to prevent him from getting into a groove to this point in his career. He battled vertigo as a prospect, then saw his 2019 season cut short by surgery to repair a labrum tear in his right shoulder. He lost a chunk of the 2020 season on the COVID-19 list, then missed most of the ’21 campaign rehabbing from a left knee issue that required arthroscopic surgery.

The Reds tendered Senzel an arbitration contract last week, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting him for a $2.2MM salary next season. The 27-year-old is eligible for arbitration through 2025, but next year could be Senzel’s last crack at cementing himself as a long-term fixture on the Cincinnati roster.

He’s presently the favorite for the starting center field job, but Nightengale suggests the Reds could look for outside help at the position. That’d presumably be via the lower tier of free agency or the trade market and would push Senzel more into a multi-positional role off the bench. General manager Nick Krall told reporters last week Senzel was an option to factor in at third base, the position at which he was drafted. He’s only played 32 MLB innings at the hot corner while logging just over 2000 frames in the outfield.

Dodgers Non-Tender Cody Bellinger

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The Dodgers will not tender a contract to Cody Bellinger for his final year of arbitration eligibility, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected the 2019 NL MVP for a salary around $18.1MM. Bellinger will be a free agent once the team officially announces the decision.

It’s not a surprising move at this point, but it’s one nobody would’ve foreseen when Bellinger was collecting his MVP trophy three years ago. He blasted 47 home runs that season and posted an overall .305/.406/.629 line across 661 plate appearances. The left-handed hitter looked to have cemented himself as one of the sport’s preeminent sluggers, and he carried a career .278/.368/.559 mark in over 1800 plate appearances heading into 2020. At age 24, Bellinger seemed a budding superstar.

Unfortunately, things have gone south over the past few seasons. He stumbled a bit during the abbreviated 2020 campaign, putting up a .239/.333/.455 line in 56 games. That was still above-average production but a notable step back from the numbers of his first few seasons. A putrid .245 batting average on balls in play seemed to be a major cause of that, and one could certainly point to the anomalous circumstances that year in anticipating a bounceback.

That’s not how things have played out, seemingly in part due to an ill-advised celebration that postseason. Bellinger dislocated his right shoulder celebrating a crucial home run in Game 7 of the 2020 NLCS. While he played out the postseason, he underwent surgery in mid-November. Bellinger was healthy enough to open the 2021 campaign on the roster, but he battled a series of unrelated leg and rib issues. In between, his slash line plummeted to a meager .165/.240/.302 in 95 games.

L.A. brought him back last winter, avoiding arbitration on a $17MM salary. Their hoped-for bounceback season didn’t really materialize, though. Bellinger’s 2022 numbers were improved from the prior year but nowhere near those of previous seasons. In 550 trips to the plate, he put up a .210/.265/.389 mark. That brings him to exactly 900 plate appearances over the past two years, in which he’s hit .193/.256/.355. His on-base percentage is lowest among the 151 hitters with 900+ trips to the dish, while his batting average bests only that of Joey Gallo. He’s sixth from the bottom in slugging.

Bellinger’s batted ball metrics and power output have taken a step back, which could indicate he’s never quite regained the explosiveness in his swing after the shoulder surgery. Yet he’s also seen a marked uptick in strikeouts, fanning 27.1% of the time after cutting his strikeout rate below 18% in 2019-20. His walk percentage fell to a below-average 7.7%, and manager Dave Roberts has increasingly dropped him further in the batting order.

With two full seasons of huge offensive struggles under his belt, the Dodgers have elected to move on rather than pay the two-time All-Star in the neighborhood of $18MM. That always looked to be more than even the high-spending franchise would be willing to pay, and it stands to reason no other club was willing to offer that kind of salary either. The Dodgers have presumably spent the past few weeks gauging the trade market for Bellinger, and that he’ll be cut loose for no return indicates there wasn’t much interest at that price point.

That said, there’s no question he’ll be of interest to teams as a bounceback target at a lower cost. Bellinger, to his credit, hasn’t allowed his offensive struggles to affect his work in the field. He’s an elite runner who has moved full-time to center field after coming up as a first baseman and corner outfielder. Defensive Runs Saved has rated him as a roughly average center fielder the last two years, but Ultimate Zone Rating and Statcast have pegged him above par. Statcast has been most bullish, rating him as seven runs above average in just under 1900 innings of center field work since the start of the 2021 campaign.

Slightly above-average center field defense and plus baserunning gives Bellinger a decent floor even if he’s not hitting well, although he’s obviously quite a bit more of an upside play than a traditional glove-only outfielder. He’ll look for a complete reset offensively but heading into his age-27 campaign, he could certainly still rediscover some of his old form at the plate.

Non-tendered players aren’t subject to waivers, so Bellinger will be a free agent. He and his representatives at the Boras Corporation will have the opportunity to gauge interest from other teams, and they’ll benefit from a lack of supply in center field. Excepting Aaron Judge, former Met Brandon Nimmo is the top center fielder available in free agency. Bellinger arguably becomes the next-best option in a class that also includes Kevin Kiermaier, Adam Duvall and Jackie Bradley Jr.

The Mets, Blue Jays, Marlins, Rangers, Rays, Rockies, Astros, Padres and Giants (a team run by former L.A. executive Farhan Zaidi) could all look externally for center help. They’re speculative fits for Bellinger, and the Dodgers themselves could remain in contact about a reunion at a lower price point.

Los Angeles could give Mookie Betts, Chris Taylor or Trayce Thompson increased center field run, but it stands to reason they’ll also scour the market for help outside the organization. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports (on Twitter) they’re taking a look at Kiermaier as part of that search.

Subtracting Bellinger’s arbitration projection leaves L.A. with around $152MM in projected 2023 payroll, per Roster Resource, pending additional arbitration decisions. They’re estimated around $169MM in luxury tax obligations, leaving them well shy of next year’s $233MM base tax threshold. That doesn’t include an approximate $20MM salary for Clayton Kershaw, who’s reportedly nearing a deal to re-sign. Still, the Dodgers should have plenty of financial breathing room to address shortstop, center field, third base and rotation depth that look like the team’s biggest question marks early in the offseason.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

National League Non-Tenders: 11/18/22

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The deadline to tender contract to arbitration-eligible players is tonight at 7:00pm Central. Here’s a rundown of the players on National League teams that have been non-tendered today. This post will be updated as more decisions are revealed. All players non-tendered go directly to free agency

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for all arb-eligible players last month.

Later Updates

  • The Reds have non-tendered righty Daniel Duarte and minor league outfielder Allan Cerda, taking both off the 40-man roster. Neither had been eligible for arbitration, but Cincinnati will send both into free agency without having to place either on waivers. Duarte made three relief appearances this year, his first as a big leaguer. Cerda, 23 next month, has yet to reach the majors. He hit .198/.350/.401 in 257 plate appearances in Double-A. Cincinnati also announced that six players designated for assignment earlier this week — Aristides Aquino, Jared Solomon, Kyle Dowdy, Derek Law, Art Warren and Jeff Hoffman — were all let go. Both Duarte and Cerda have already agreed to re-sign with Cincinnati on minor league deals, reports Mark Sheldon of MLB.com (Twitter link).

Earlier Moves

  • The Braves freed a pair of 40-man roster spots by non-tendering minor league pitchers Brooks Wilson and Alan Rangel. Rangel spent most of this past season in Double-A, while Wilson didn’t pitch in 2022. Atlanta also announced that three players non-tendered earlier this week — Guillermo Heredia, Jackson Stephens and Silvino Bracho — have been let go.
  • The Giants have non-tendered relievers Mauricio Llovera and Alex Young and infielder Donovan Walton, clearing three spots on the 40-man roster. Walton was acquired from the Mariners midseason and hit .158/.179/.303 in 24 games with San Francisco. Young made 24 appearances after his contract was purchased from the Guardians. Llovera pitched 17 times after signing a minor league deal last offseason. Additionally San Francisco non-tendered seven players who’d been designated for assignment earlier this week: Drew Strotman, Meibrys Viloria, Colton Welker, Jarlin Garcia, Dom Nunez, Sam Delaplane and Jason Vosler.
  • The Pirates non-tendered lefty Manny Banuelos and catcher Tyler Heineman. Both had been designated for assignment earlier this week.
  • The Diamondbacks non-tendered righty Reyes Moronta, the team announced. The reliever posted a 4.50 ERA in 17 outings with the Snakes after being claimed off waivers from the Dodgers.
  • The Padres announced they’ve cut loose catcher Jorge Alfaro and righty Efrain Contreras. Alfaro had been projected at a $3.6MM salary this season, a hefty amount after a .246/.285/.383 season. Contreras hasn’t pitched in the majors; he had a tough year in High-A and loses his 40-man spot spot as a result.
  • The Cubs have non-tendered center fielder Rafael Ortega, as well as minor league pitchers Brailyn Marquez and Alexander Vizcaino. Ortega has seen a decent amount of action the last two years and had a respectable .241/.331/.358 line through 371 plate appearances this past season. Nevertheless, the Cubs opted against a salary in the $1.7MM range for next year. Marquez has been a top pitching prospect but has battled injury issues for the past few years. Vizcaino was part of the Anthony Rizzo trade with the Yankees but didn’t pitch in the minors this year.
  • The Nationals non-tendered righty Tommy Romero. He’d been designated for assignment earlier this week. Washington confirmed the previously-reported decisions to part with Luke Voit and Erick Fedde.
  • The Brewers cut loose right-handers Trevor Gott, Jandel Gustave and Luis Perdomo. All three were part of Milwaukee’s middle innings mix, with Gustave’s 45 appearances the most among that group. Gott had a 4.15 ERA over 45 2/3 innings after signing a free agent deal last offseason.
  • The Rockies non-tendered infielder/outfielder Garrett Hampson, the club announced. The 28-year-old had been projected for a $2.1MM salary. A speedster with the ability to play anywhere up the middle, Hampson just hasn’t hit at the big league level. He’s coming off a .211/.287/.307 showing through 226 plate appearances.
  • The Mets announced they’ve non-tendered Sean Reid-Foley and confirmed they’re letting go of Dominic Smith, who’s non-tender was previously reported. This year, Reid-Foley made seven MLB appearances, tossing 10 innings of relief.
  • The Dodgers have non-tendered infielder Edwin Rios and utilityman Luke Williams, per a club announcement. Los Angeles also confirmed the previously reported non-tender of former MVP Cody Bellinger. Rios has shown some offensive promise in the past and owns a .212/.299/.492 line through 112 big league games. He missed a good chunk of this past season with a hamstring strain. Williams was claimed off waivers from the Marlins recently; the Dodgers could look to bring him back on a minor league deal.

Reds Acquire Kevin Newman

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The Reds and Pirates agreed to an intra-divisional trade that sends infielder Kevin Newman to Cincinnati for reliever Dauri Moreta. Both teams have announced the deal.

Newman changes organizations for the first time in his career. Pittsburgh selected him with the 19th overall pick in the 2015 draft, and he reached the majors roughly three years later. He struggled in 31 games down the stretch as a rookie, but he had a solid sophomore showing. The University of Arizona product hit .308/.353/.446 across 531 plate appearances in 2019, securing the primary shortstop job in the process.

He held the role for the next couple seasons, but his offensive productivity wilted. Newman had well below-average numbers in both 2020-21, combining to hit just .226/.268/.302 through 726 plate appearances. Even with strong defensive metrics in 2021, his overall production hovered right around replacement level. The rebuilding Bucs continued to give him opportunities, however, and he righted the ship enough this year they managed to find a trade partner.

The 29-year-old posted a .274/.316/.372 mark over 309 plate appearances this past season. He lost over two months to a left groin strain mid-year, but his rate production was his best since 2019. The righty hitter’s overall offensive profile hasn’t much changed throughout his career. Newman makes a ton of contact, putting the ball in play early in counts to suppress both his strikeout and walk totals. He has very little power, with just 20 career home runs — 12 of which came during a 2019 season that saw arguably the liveliest ball in league history. He’s reliant on a quality batting average on balls in play to prop up his numbers but looks like a decent bottom-0f-the-lineup option when enough singles drop in.

Newman’s calling card is his ability to play up the middle. He’s logged over 2500 big league innings at shortstop, typically rating at or a bit below league average. He drew quality marks in 2021, but for his career, he’s been an estimated nine runs below average according to Defensive Runs Saved and six runs below par in the estimation of Statcast. Public metrics have rated him slightly below average in just under 800 career frames at second base as well.

The presence of Oneil Cruz in Pittsburgh displaced Newman at shortstop. The Bucs could’ve relied upon him at second base, but they may prefer to take a longer look at 23-year-old Rodolfo Castro with an eye towards eventually turning things to a prospect like Nick Gonzales or Liover Peguero.

Cincinnati has less clarity at shortstop with José Barrero thus far failing to seize the position. The Reds dealt Kyle Farmer to the Twins this evening and could use a stable option to hold down the position until the arrival of top prospect Elly De La Cruz, who turns 21 in January and finished this year in Double-A. Newman is arbitration-eligible for the second time this winter and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $2.8MM salary; he’s controllable through 2024.

Moreta, 26, received his first big league call late in 2021. The 6’2″ righty pitched in four games down the stretch but got some decent run this past season. The Reds called upon Moreta 35 times in relief, and he worked to a 5.40 ERA through 38 1/3 innings. Moreta punched out a decent 24.4% of opponents against an average 8.1% walk rate, but he was done in by major home run issues. He surrendered 10 longballs (an average of 2.35 per nine innings), thanks in large part to a very low 32.7% ground-ball rate.

That extreme fly-ball propensity made him a rough fit for Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly home environment, but he could have a better go in the more spacious PNC Park. Moreta has a fastball that sits just under 96 MPH on average, and he missed bats on a solid 11% of his offerings this year. With a more favorable home park, it’s possible he translates those decent strikeout and walk numbers into viable middle innings work. He won’t reach arbitration until at least the end of the 2024 campaign, and he can still be optioned to the minor leagues in each of the next two seasons. He’s a big league ready middle relief depth option.

Ken Rosenthal and Rob Biertempfel of the Athletic first reported the Reds were acquiring Newman. Biertempfel was first to report Cincinnati would receive Moreta in return.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Tigers Non-Tender Jeimer Candelario

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The Tigers are non-tendering third baseman Jeimer Candelario, reports Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press (Twitter link). He’d been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $7MM salary.

Candelario has been the Tigers primary third baseman for the past five seasons. Originally acquired from the Cubs in a 2017 trade, he was manning the hot corner at Comerica Park by the start of the following year. Candelario posted below-average numbers for his first two seasons, but the switch-hitting infielder showed some promise with a .297/.369/.503 line in 52 games during the abbreviated 2020 campaign.

It never looked likely he’d replicate quite that level of production over a full season, but Candelario backed up his numbers with another impressive year. Through 626 trips to the plate in 2021, he posted a .271/.351/.443 showing with 16 longballs and 42 doubles. That brought his two-year line to .278/.356/.458 in more than 800 plate appearances.

Candelario looked like an above-average regular at the hot corner, a productive middle-of-the-order bat with capable defensive marks. Like much of the Detroit lineup, he fell off sharply in 2022. Candelario’s .217/.272/.361 line across 124 games proved a major disappointment. He had some unfortunate batted ball marks, with a .257 average on balls in play well shy of both the .290 league figure and the career .308 BABIP which Candelario carried into the season.

A rebound in his ball in play results would go a long way towards getting things back on track, but the dip isn’t solely attributable to poor luck. Candelario’s 34.6% hard contact rate was almost five percentage points lower than his 2021 mark and down 12 points from where it sat in 2020. He saw a similar decline in his average exit velocity. He hit more ground balls and pop-ups than he had the previous two seasons, while his line drive rate sunk.

Whether to place a roughly $7MM bet on Candelario to right the ship for his final season of arbitration was a key early decision for new president of baseball operations Scott Harris. Detroit opted against doing so, and they could look for third base help this offseason as a result. The Tigers have Ryan Kreidler as an in-house option to play somewhere on the infield, with third base now standing as the clearest path to playing time. Should Detroit add depth at the hot corner in the coming months, Kreidler could push Jonathan Schoop for playing time at second base.

Further thinning their infield depth, Detroit non-tendered utility players Harold Castro and Willi Castro. Both were eligible for arbitration for the first time and projected for salaries in the $2MM range. They each have some infield versatility and bat-to-ball skills, but neither draws many walks or hits for power. The Tigers will look elsewhere for bench depth. Detroit also non-tendered a number of players — Michael Papierski, Miguel Díaz, Kyle Funkhouser and Brendon Davis — who’d previously been designated for assignment.

Candelario, despite his down year, is one of the better free agent options available in a weak third base class. Justin Turner is the top option after being bought out by the Dodgers, while players like Evan Longoria, Jace Peterson and fellow non-tender Brian Anderson make up the next tier.

Cardinals Non-Tender Alex Reyes

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The Cardinals announced they’re not tendering a contract to right-hander Alex Reyes or outfielder Ben DeLuzio. Both players head to free agency. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had predicted a $2.85MM arbitration salary for Reyes, while DeLuzio is not eligible for arbitration.

Reyes was once touted as one of the best prospects in all of baseball, regularly featuring on various publication’s top-100 lists, including a fourth-place ranking on Baseball America’s pre-2017 list of the best prospects in baseball. The foundation of that was some elite stuff, headlined by a triple-digit fastball and a lethal curveball.

After blowing away minor league batters, he made his big league debut in 2016 and didn’t disappoint. The then-21-year-old tossed 46 innings of 1.57 ERA ball, giving up just one home run and striking out batters 27.5% of the time. He looked every bit a major league pitcher, and looked certain to be a atop Cardinal rotations for many years to come.

Tommy John surgery prior would wipe out his 2017 campaign, but he looked like he was back to his best on minor league rehab stints in 2018, striking out 44 batters across 23 innings and four starts. Yet disaster would strike after Reyes was activated, as he went down just four innings into his first start back, and eventually undergoing season-ending surgery on a torn tendon in his lat.

He’d return in 2019, but walked six batters in three innings and was immediately optioned to the minor leagues. That began yet another injury-plagued year and Reyes would only add 37 1/3 innings of 6.03 ERA ball in the minors, as he again spent most of the season on the injured list.

The Cardinals brought him back in 2020, but now opted to utilize him out of the bullpen. While the walks were still a concern (16.3%), Reyes posted the best season since his 2016 effort, tossing 19 2/3 innings of 3.20 ERA ball, striking out batters 31.2% of the time. He followed that up with a lights out start to the 2021 campaign, pitching to a 1.52 ERA as St Louis’ closer and earning a trip to the All Star game. The second half was a different story though, and Reyes was dropped from the closer role and wound up with a dismal 5.52 second half ERA.

Injury problems returned again in 2022, and Reyes underwent season-ending shoulder surgery in May wiping out his season and leading the Cardinals to move on from him today. As it went, that rookie season accounted for 1.3 of his career 1.7 fWAR, an unfortunate return for a player who was once seen as a foundation piece in St Louis.

With that being said, his raw stuff still appears to be there, and despite all the injury problems his velocity has remained steadily in the upper-90s. Depending on his health, Reyes could make a very attractive reclamation project for any number of teams. He’s only 28, and teams would certainly love the opportunity to take a chance on an arm like his.

DeLuzio is the other Cardinal to be non-tendered. The center fielder appeared in 22 games in 2022, mostly as a defensive replacement as he made just 25 plate appearances, batting .150/.292/.200. Though many of the players being non-tendered today are arbitration-eligible, it’s not uncommon to see non-arbitration players informed they won’t receive a contract, as the Cardinals have done here to free up a 40-man spot.

Cubs Claim Rylan Bannon From Braves

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The Cubs have claimed infielder Rylan Bannon off waivers from the Braves, according to a club announcement. Atlanta had designated him for assignment last week.

Bannon has moved around the league over the past couple months. A longtime Orioles farmhand, he was designated for assignment by Baltimore in early August. He moved to the Dodgers and Braves in rapid succession via waivers. He didn’t play in the majors with L.A. and only suited up once for Atlanta, appearing as a late-game defensive substitution. Bannon only has five games of big league experience overall, but he’s attracted interest from a number of teams as infield depth.

The 26-year-old has had some decent showings in the high minors. He’s a career .227/.337/.415 hitter at the Triple-A level. That includes a more impressive .249/.367/.421 line across 411 plate appearances this year. Bannon strikes out a fair amount, but he hit 13 home runs and walked in a stellar 14.4% of his trips to the plate. He’s also capable of playing either second or third base, making him a versatile depth piece.

With one minor league option year remaining, Bannon can be freely moved between Chicago and Triple-A Iowa next season if he holds his 40-man roster spot. His claim brings the Cubs 40-man roster tally to 39.

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