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Red Sox Haven’t Told Clay Buchholz Whether Option Will Be Exercised

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The Red Sox haven’t told righty Clay Buchholz whether they plan to exercise his option, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford writes. Buchholz’s contract calls for a $13.5MM option or a $500K buyout for 2017. The Red Sox have until five days after the World Series to decide. They also had an option on Buchholz for this past season, and by this point last year, they had already told him they planned to exercise it, Bradford notes.

Whether Boston would exercise Buchholz’s option after a disappointing season (4.78 ERA, 6.0 K/9, 3.7 BB/9) in which he lost his rotation spot has lately been a topic of speculation. Most recent reporting, though, has indicated that the Sox are leaning toward picking up the option.

That would seem to be a defensible decision, depending on how the Red Sox feel about Buchholz’s performance down the stretch. After making mechanical adjustments and taking a two-week break from appearing in games in early July, Buchholz fared well in the second half (when he had a 3.22 ERA). His struggles early in the season could perhaps be seen as related to a flexor strain that cost him the last two and a half months of an otherwise-strong 2015 campaign. He’s also only 32 and has a long record of at least modest success as a starter. Also, with a weak free agent market for starting pitching, he could potentially have trade value even if the Red Sox don’t have concrete plans for him.

Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.

Their rebuild underway, the Brewers will spend the offseason entertaining offers for Ryan Braun and trying to find players capable of filling spots until reinforcements arrive from the minors.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Ryan Braun, OF: $76MM through 2020 (includes $4MM buyout on $15MM mutual option for 2021)
  • Matt Garza, SP: $12.5MM through 2017 (plus club/vesting option for 2018)

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Free Agents

Brewers Depth Chart; Brewers Payroll Information

The Brewers spent 2016 taking advantage of the biggest asset rebuilding teams have that contending teams don’t: the ability to use playing time to evaluate players on the fringes. That process got them good seasons from infielder Jonathan Villar, outfielder Keon Broxton and pitchers Junior Guerra and Zach Davies, as well as lesser but still productive years from infielders Hernan Perez and Chris Carter and pitchers Jacob Barnes and Jhan Marinez.

The Brewers therefore appear to have options that are at least reasonable at many key positions. Guerra and Davies look set for the Brewers’ rotation, with the team also having Jimmy Nelson, Matt Garza, Chase Anderson and Wily Peralta in tow. (Peralta could be a non-tender candidate following an underwhelming season in which he posted a 4.86 ERA, 6.6 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9, but he performed well in the big leagues down the stretch after a stint in the minors, so it might be more likely the Brewers keep him.) In the bullpen, there’s new closer Tyler Thornburg, along with Carlos Torres, Rob Scahill and Corey Knebel.

That isn’t the core of a good team, but GM David Stearns and the Brewers likely don’t expect to be good right now. Instead, they’ll wait on new arrivals from their highly regarded farm system, and continue to try to sort out who among their current big-leaguers will be able to help their higher-upside young players.

At catcher, the Brewers will likely retain Martin Maldonado, who batted .202 and slugged .351 but with a respectable .332 OBP last season. Maldonado profiles as a backup, but the team still likely won’t pursue an established starter at the position, instead likely preferring to get looks at Andrew Susac, who they acquired when they shipped Will Smith to the Giants. The 26-year-old Susac struggled to get his big-league career going, but he’s generally hit well in the minors and still only has 1,660 career professional plate appearances since being drafted in 2011. He could benefit from more regular playing time.

In the infield, the Brewers will probably keep Carter at first, although it’s not out of the question they’ll trade or even non-tender him, since the arbitration process will value him more for his gaudy home run totals than his obvious weaknesses. Considering non-tendering a player coming off a 41-homer season may seem crazy, but Carter’s 2016 was worth just 0.9 fWAR, and his career 31.9% strikeout rate, .218 batting average and -29 Defensive Runs Saved mean he has to hit home runs at a furious pace to be more valuable than the $8.1MM salary we project he’ll receive. The Brewers have suggested Carter will return, although that isn’t yet certain.

Assuming Carter is back, he’ll presumably have the speedy Villar next to him at second base, since the team has said it prefers not to use Villar at third. That could leave Scooter Gennett without a job. Gennett’s .263/.317/.412 line in 2016 placed him near replacement level for the second consecutive year, partially because of his defense, which advanced metrics rate as mediocre. Perhaps the team could retain him and shift him to third, but it’s probably more likely he’ll be traded to a team with a big hole at second base, or perhaps non-tendered. Villar spent much of 2016 at shortstop, but well-regarded youngster Orlando Arcia will likely man the position next season.

The Brewers’ plans for third base are less clear. Perez played well while manning third part-time last year, batting .272/.302/.428 with 34 steals. His track record, though, suggests that a repeat of those numbers is unlikely, and he might profile better as a super-utility type anyway (which would still mean he’ll wind up with plenty of playing time).

That could leave the Brewers hunting for someone to play the hot corner.  An up-market player like Justin Turner seems highly unlikely. Someone like Luis Valbuena (who was previously in the Astros organization with Stearns and several current Brewers players) would make sense, particularly given that he bats left-handed and would help balance the Brewers’ very righty-heavy lineup. The team could also pursue a short-term veteran option like Kelly Johnson or old friend Aaron Hill. Johnson would make a certain amount of sense, since he and Perez could potentially form an effective platoon. Alternately, the Brewers could hunt for a trade option, or a non-tendered player, hoping to find a bit of upside, just as they did last season when they signed Will Middlebrooks to a minor league pact.

Ryan BraunThe complexion of the Brewers’ 2017 outfield will depend in large part on the potential Braun deal — the move, or non-move, that will define their offseason. Following their trades of Yovani Gallardo, Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Gomez, Mike Fiers, Jonathan Broxton, Gerardo Parra, Francisco Rodriguez, Adam Lind, Jean Segura, Khris Davis, Aaron Hill, Jeremy Jeffress, Jonathan Lucroy and Smith in recent years, Braun is one of the few valuable veterans the Brewers have left. Their return if, or when, they do finally trade him could go a long way to determining how they fare in the near future.

Braun batted .305/.365/.538 last season in his best offensive performance since 2012, so this winter would seem like an ideal time for a deal. Last summer, the Brewers and Dodgers reportedly seriously discussed a swap involving Braun, with Yasiel Puig, Brandon McCarthy and prospects heading to Milwaukee. It’s unclear how close that trade was to actually occurring, but it seems the two sides will revisit the deal this offseason, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see Braun in Dodger blue in 2017.

The value of the Brewers’ side of the deal would, of course, depend fairly heavily on the prospects involved, but the inclusion of Puig and McCarthy already makes the trade an interesting one from the Brewers’ perspective. Part of the Dodgers’ likely intention in including those players was to offset Braun’s salary, since Puig and McCarthy are set to make a combined $39.5MM through 2018. But neither Puig nor McCarthy fits the usual profile of a salary dumpee. The Brewers would get to gamble on the 25-year-old Puig’s upside, which remains considerable despite his trip to the minors last season. They would also get a solid veteran arm (albeit one who’s only recently come back from Tommy John surgery) for their rotation. McCarthy is only two years removed from pitching 200 innings with a terrific 2.85 xFIP and 52.6% ground-ball rate.

Should the Brewers be unable to consummate a Braun deal with the Dodgers, they would have no shortage of other trade suitors (although Braun’s limited no-trade clause could be a problem — as of earlier this year, he could block deals to all teams except the Dodgers, Angels, Padres, Giants, Diamondbacks and Marlins). The Giants and Braves have reportedly also had interest in Braun, and it’s likely other teams would as well. While acquiring someone like Puig in return for Braun makes sense, the Brewers don’t need to get an outfielder in a Braun deal, since they have a remarkable group of outfield prospects (including Lewis Brinson, Brett Phillips, Ryan Cordell and, lower in the minors, Corey Ray and Trent Clark).

Elsewhere in the Brewers outfield, Broxton had an outstanding second half, demonstrating plus speed and defense while batting a remarkable .294/.399/.538 before missing the last two weeks of the season due to a fractured wrist. At 26, Broxton was old for a rookie. His minor league record doesn’t suggest he can maintain the level of productivity he demonstrated in 2016, and it’s possible the wrist injury could affect him going forward. Nonetheless, his legs and glove give him a high floor, and he should be an easy choice to start in center field for the Brewers next season.

In right field, the Brewers will likely continue to give looks to Domingo Santana, with Perez potentially filling in the gaps if Santana struggles. Santana batted a respectable .256/.345/.447. Like Carter, he’s a big man who strikes out excessively and has no defensive value. Nonetheless, he warrants continued playing time, since he’s only 24 and has shown significant power potential.

It makes sense for the Brewers to keep Kirk Nieuwenhuis as a backup outfielder, given that he’ll likely cost less than $2MM in his first year of arbitration eligibility. Like many Brewers, Nieuwenhuis piles up his share of whiffs and has low batting averages. He’ll take a walk, though, and he plays all three outfield positions well and hits left-handed.

The Brewers could also aim to acquire a bit of rotation help this offseason. Of their current rotation options, only Guerra and Nelson look like much more than back-of-the-rotation types, and it’s not clear what even Nelson will become following a disappointing 2016. Nelson led the NL in walks in 2016, and if his control problems continue, it’s not hard to imagine he could wind up back at Triple-A at some point next season, since he’s optionable.

While the Brewers do have some starting pitching prospects (topped by lefty Josh Hader) who could make an impact at some point in 2017, their current group possesses limited upside and considerable downside — it’s easy to imagine the Brewers’ rotation becoming a real mess if, say, the physically slight Davies got hurt and Garza had a season more like 2015 than 2016. With Sean Nolin out for 2017 following Tommy John surgery, their depth is somewhat limited, too. The organization almost certainly won’t pursue a high-end starting pitcher, but an innings-eater might make sense. The team could also look for a high-risk, high-upside option (someone like Andrew Cashner, perhaps) in an attempt to emulate the Athletics’ success flipping Rich Hill last season. The addition of McCarthy in a potential Braun trade would also obviously help.

The Brewers already have plenty of bullpen arms to sort through, including several, like Marinez, Barnes and Knebel, who possess considerable velocity. They do, however, look likely to pursue a left-hander or two, perhaps on a minor league deal. The only healthy southpaw currently on their 40-man roster is Brent Suter, who has just 21 2/3 career innings of big-league experience and who’s mostly a starter anyway.

Whatever happens, the Brewers don’t appear likely to contend in 2017. There is, however, plenty of evidence that their rebuild is going well. They won 73 games last season, not a bad total for an organization mostly trying to address long-term goals. Their farm system is now much stronger than it was just a year and a half ago, when Baseball America rated it 19th-best in the game — thanks to a couple years of high draft picks and trades for young talent, the organization now has enviable prospect depth, and Arcia is just the first of what should be a long series of high-upside Brewers rookies. 2017 won’t be a pretty season for the Brewers, but there’s talent in Milwaukee, and more on the way.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

World Series Notes: Cubs, Epstein, Miller, Chapman

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The Cubs’ recent path to the World Series is “a case study in how to bring a team or a business back to life,” Alex Rodriguez (yes, that Alex Rodriguez) writes for FOX Sports. A-Rod praises top Cubs exec Theo Epstein, with whom he negotiated prior to the 2004 season, when the Red Sox were trying to bring Rodriguez to Boston in a pair of mega-deals that would have sent Jon Lester and Manny Ramirez to Texas, while also acquiring Magglio Ordonez and Brandon McCarthy from the White Sox for Nomar Garciaparra. The deal, in which Rodriguez was to take a $40MM pay cut, was vetoed by the players’ union. Rodriguez, of course, headed to the Yankees, but the Red Sox won the 2004 World Series anyway. “We were three 20-somethings convinced we were about to turn baseball upside down together,” Rodriguez writes, referring to himself, Epstein and Jed Hoyer. “Though I never got a chance to work with Theo, I knew then that he was going to be a force.” Here are more quick notes on the Fall Classic.

  • There’s little mystery to the Cubs’ success, Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs writes. The reasons for the accomplishments of other recent World Series teams, like the Royals and Giants, have been a bit harder to explain, but the Cubs are simply “a super-good club, made up of super-good players.” Even if the Cubs lose this time around, they’re extremely well positioned to make a run at another World Series or three in the near future — they have Lester, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber, Kyle Hendricks and Willson Contreras under control for four or more seasons.
  • Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman both began the season as members of the Yankees, but they’ll finish it opposing one another in the World Series, MLB.com’s Richard Justice writes. Miller has been dominant thus far this postseason for the Indians, with 21 strikeouts in 11 2/3 scoreless innings thus far. Chapman has allowed three runs over eight frames for the Cubs. Both are obviously standouts as MLB pitchers go, but as Justice notes, this World Series could turn either or both into household names.

Nationals Place Aaron Barrett On Outright Waivers

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The Nationals have placed righty Aaron Barrett on outright waivers, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post writes. Barrett would have been eligible for arbitration this offseason as a Super Two (and was projected to make a mere $700K), but the Nats have elected not to take him through that process.

The 28-year-old Barrett had Tommy John surgery late in the 2015 campaign. Late this season, while attempting a comeback from the injury, he fractured his elbow, requiring another surgery. Janes notes that Barrett is set to begin throwing again in a few weeks, but the Nationals’ decision to place him on outright waivers indicates that they’re not confident he’s likely to be a significant contributor next season. They might, however, be hoping to bring him back next season on a minor league deal.

Prior to Barrett’s recent run of bad luck, he was a key part of the Nationals’ bullpens in 2014 and 2015, pitching to a 3.47 ERA, 10.8 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in 70 innings over those two seasons. At his best, he boasted a mid-90s fastball and effective slider, although it’s unclear what his stuff might be like once he returns.

Indians Notes: Bauer, Salazar, Kipnis

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Here’s the latest from Cleveland on the World Series, courtesy of reporters including MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian:

  • Unsurprisingly, Corey Kluber will start Game 1 on Tuesday, Indians manager Terry Francona says. Currently, Trevor Bauer is set to start Game 2 and Josh Tomlin Game 3, but those slots are less certain, since Bauer is still dealing with a lacerated pinkie and he would not be able to remain in the game if he starts bleeding. If the Indians believe that would be less likely with more rest, his spot in the rotation could be pushed back.
  • Ryan Merritt is a possibility to pitch Game 4, but Danny Salazar pitched in a simulated game today and could also be an option to start that game. Salazar has been out since September 9 with a forearm injury. There’s also the possibility Kluber could pitch Game 4 on short rest. “It’s going to be TBA after Game 3 probably the rest of the way, for obvious reasons,” says Francona. “It’s not that difficult to figure out. Kluber’s certainly an option. It could be a lot of things, so we’re just kind of keeping it open.” A fully healthy Salazar would obviously provide a boost for the Indians, but it’s unclear how crisp he’ll be after so much time off. As Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal writes, Salazar still isn’t throwing his curveball. If he can’t start, he could be an option for the Indians coming out of the bullpen.
  • Indians second baseman Jason Kipnis has a low ankle sprain he suffered while celebrating Cleveland’s pennant win over Toronto, but Francona says Kipnis should be ready to play, as Bastian tweets. Kipnis participated in fielding drills today and faced Salazar in the simulated game.

Poll: Should The Brewers Tender Chris Carter?

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That the Brewers should tender a contract to slugging first baseman Chris Carter seems, at first, to be obvious. After being non-tendered by the Astros last offseason, Carter signed a one-year, $2.5MM contract with Milwaukee, then tied Nolan Arenado for the NL home-run crown, with a career-high 41. Now Carter has 4.159 years of service time, and the Brewers are faced with a decision. Surely it would be ridiculous for them to non-tender him, right?

Chris CarterWell, maybe not. MLBTR projects that Carter will get a very significant bump in salary next year, making $8.1MM through arbitration. While that’s not an astronomical figure, it is high for a one-dimensional player. As MLBTR’s Matt Swartz points out, hitters’ salaries during their arbitration seasons are typically evaluated by batting average, home runs, RBIs, stolen bases and plate appearances. Carter has never hit well for average or stolen many bases, but he fared very well last season in the other three categories, also amassing 94 RBIs and 644 PAs. In arbitration, counting stats are what matter most, and Carter’s are impressive. In addition, the relative defensive value of a shortstop, say, as compared to a first baseman is not as important in arbitration as it would be on the free agent market. That factor also favors Carter, should the Brewers tender him.

As a result, the amount the Brewers will have to pay Carter through the arbitration process could approach or exceed his actual value. The arbitration process won’t penalize Carter much for his consistently mediocre on-base percentages (.321 this season, .314 career) or his below-average defense at first base (-5.2 UZR in 2016). Via FanGraphs, Carter’s 41-homer 2016 season was worth just 0.9 wins above replacement, largely due to those factors. Also via FanGraphs, the dollar value of that 0.9-WAR season was just $7.1MM, below the $8.1MM he’d likely receive next year through the arb process.

In fact, Carter has only produced more than 1 fWAR twice in his career, thanks to his lack of defensive value and his exorbitant strikeout totals, which prevent him from reaching base. He whiffed 206 times in 2016, and that wasn’t even his career high in that category. Carter was non-tendered last offseason after totaling 90 home runs in the three previous years, even though his salary would only have been a projected $5.6MM. After hitting the open market, he ultimately made less than half that. He would have been worth the $5.6MM in 2016, but neither the Astros nor the free agent market seemed exuberant about his value. That’s worth considering this time around.

It perhaps makes sense, then, that the Brewers appear to be at least considering non-tendering Carter. Today’s Knuckleball’s Jon Heyman reported two weeks ago that the team had a tough decision on its hands, although GM David Stearns had previously indicated Carter would return.

Then again, 41 home runs is 41 home runs, and perhaps we’re overthinking it. One would imagine that, at the very least, Carter would have value in the right context. Pedro Alvarez, who’s left-handed but has many of the same strengths and weaknesses as Carter, got a $5.8MM deal last offseason but produced $9MM in value for the Orioles, generally playing DH. And another whiff-prone, defensively challenged Orioles slugger, Mark Trumbo, got $9.2MM but produced $17.3MM in value.

Also, the Brewers don’t have that much to lose by tendering Carter. They only have two players — Ryan Braun and Matt Garza — under contract for next season, and don’t project to have a high payroll (particularly since Braun is a trade candidate anyway). They can afford Carter. Also, Carter isn’t blocking anyone who would greatly benefit from his playing time. If Carter has another NL-leading home run season, he could perhaps land the Brewers a prospect or two at the trade deadline, or maybe even next offseason, since he’ll still have another year before free agency eligibility. (It should be noted, though, that his projected 2018 salary will be very high if he hits well next season.) There’s also the possibility that some power-starved team could overpay for Carter, given his unique skill set. The Brewers could even tender Carter and then attempt to deal him this winter, if there’s a market.

Perhaps, then, this is much ado about nothing. Tendering Carter seems like the obvious course of action, and perhaps that’s the one the Brewers will take. It’s a decision worthy of serious thought, however. What do you think?

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Angels

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

After a season that was destroyed by injuries, the Angels will attempt to assemble a healthier, more competitive team for 2017.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Contract Options

Free Agents

You’ve heard the Angels’ sob story by now. They suffered a rash of injuries early in 2016 that effectively ruined their season, forcing them to lean on questionable starters like Tim Lincecum in a desperate effort to find someone, anyone, who could take the ball every fifth day. They have Albert Pujols signed to a toxic contract. And they have a thin collection of prospects that, before the season, ESPN’s Keith Law (Insider-only) described as “by far the worst system I’ve ever seen.” Woe be the Angels, woe be Mike Trout, and woe be GM Billy Eppler, who took the job last October.

Or so it would appear. Without a doubt, the Angels have problems. But their situation is more complex than their 74-88 2016 season and terrible farm system make it seem. The worst might be over, and the team can take big steps this winter toward a much-needed reboot.

The Angels’ poor 2016 performance was due in large part to a pitching staff that, by advanced metrics like xFIP and SIERA, ranked with the Reds as one of the league’s worst. That staff should be much better next season. Garrett Richards, who pitched just 34 2/3 innings in 2016, appears to be healthy after opting for stem cell treatments rather than surgery to rehab his torn UCL. It’s far from certain dodging Tommy John will work out for him, or that he’ll return to his earlier form, but the news so far is promising. Tyler Skaggs, too, could pitch a full season after missing all of 2015 and most of 2016 due to arm trouble. The 2017 Angels already appear to have more healthy rotation talent than the 2016 team did, and that’s before even making a move.

Then there are Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson, who made a combined $40MM in 2016. Neither helped the team — Weaver spent the season on a futile quest to prevent opposing hitters from smashing 83-MPH fastballs to smithereens (although he deserves some credit for soaking up 178 innings despite his velocity troubles), and Wilson was hurt. They’ll both be free agents, and their departures will give the Angels considerable payroll flexibility, as they’ll only have about $125MM in payroll commitments for 2017 (including their arbitration-eligible players) compared to $165MM last season. In the recent past, they’ve limited payroll in an effort to stay beneath the luxury-tax threshold; it’s not entirely clear where the threshold will be next year, but it is clear the Angels will be comfortably beneath it before they begin shopping.

This is, unfortunately, not a good offseason to go hunting for pitching help, which the Angels will still need even if we make the tenuous assumption that Richards and Skaggs will be fully healthy. Those two could join Matt Shoemaker and Ricky Nolasco in the Angels’ 2017 rotation, but the team still needs a starter, or maybe two. The best starters the organization has who haven’t yet been mentioned here are Andrew Heaney and Nick Tropeano, who are both likely to miss the 2017 season after having Tommy John surgery. And the team’s farm system seems unlikely to produce much in the way of starting pitching help, or to give it much currency to acquire a starter on the trade market. The Angels do have lefty Nate Smith at Triple-A, and perhaps Brett Oberholtzer could be an option if he misses Super Two. Alex Meyer is another possibility. But the Angels don’t have much in the way of depth.

That could mean they enter a free agent market headed by Rich Hill, Ivan Nova and Jeremy Hellickson. Alternately, as Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register recently suggested, they could use their available funds to take on a bad contract. They’ll have to get creative to make trades, but there should be a variety of pitch available with salaries high enough to limit the prospect cost they’ll take to acquire — someone like Jaime Garcia or Clay Buchholz, who both have 2017 team options, could make sense, or perhaps the Angels could pursue a young veteran like Tom Koehler or Drew Smyly.

The Angels’ position players were productive in 2016, as any group of hitters led by Mike Trout will tend to be. Trout, Kole Calhoun and Andrelton Simmons give the Angels a formidable core, and the team also seems somewhat settled at third base (where they’ll almost certainly exercise the option of the productive Yunel Escobar, although perhaps it’s at least faintly possible they could move Escobar to second and try to acquire a third baseman instead) and 1B/DH (where they have C.J. Cron and Pujols’ immovable contract).

That leaves catcher, second base and one outfield spot. Luckily for the Angels, the markets at those positions are more robust than the starting pitching market. Available catchers include Matt Wieters, Jason Castro and the injured Wilson Ramos. There’s also the chance the Angels could again gamble on Geovany Soto, who missed most of 2016 due to various injuries but was productive when he played. Soto might be an especially good fit for the Angels in that he would likely only require a one-year deal, helping the Angels balance their desire to be competitive in 2017 with the likelihood that they won’t contend until future seasons. Whoever the Angels end up with, he’ll likely pair with Jett Bandy, who struggled to get on base but otherwise had a reasonably productive rookie season in 2016.

The second base market is headlined by Neil Walker and Chase Utley, with only Walker requiring what figures to be a significant long-term commitment. It’s surely a long shot, but signing both Utley and either Sean Rodriguez or Steve Pearce would be an interesting outside-the-box move. Rodriguez and Pearce are both right-handed batters who hit well and could be good complements to the lefty-swinging Utley, while also potentially helping the Angels’ outfield situation.

The top prize in the outfield will be Yoenis Cespedes, making the relatively safe assumption that he’ll opt out of his deal with the Mets. The Angels weren’t among the top contenders for Cespedes last offseason because of luxury-tax concerns, but that could be different this winter. Jose Bautista, Ian Desmond and Carlos Gomez are also available. A left-handed hitter like Michael Saunders, Josh Reddick, Brandon Moss, Colby Rasmus or Jon Jay, or a switch-hitter like Angel Pagan, could work, since the Angels currently have a righty-heavy lineup. (The list of current Angels righties also includes former top Mets prospect Jefry Marte, who hit well down the stretch last season and could get playing time in the outfield as needed.) Former Angels slugger Mark Trumbo will be available after a 47-homer season, but the Angels would do well to avoid him at the price they’re likely to have to pay, since he’s poor defensively and they don’t have space at DH.

The bullpen’s 3.77 ERA in 2016 was merely respectable, and its 4.45 xFIP and 4.15 SIERA indicate that Angels relievers were weaker than their ERAs suggested. Closer Huston Street figures to be healthy after a terrible 2016 season in which he posted a 6.45 ERA in 22 1/3 innings and missed time to oblique and knee problems. It remains to be seen whether he can return to form, given his poor 2016 performance and his velocity, which has declined since 2009 and now rests at around 88 MPH. Cam Bedrosian likewise ended the season on the DL due to a blood clot, but his future appears brighter than Street’s — he had a brilliant 2016 season and figures to be healthy for Spring Training.

The 2017 bullpen should also feature some combination of Jose Alvarez, J.C. Ramirez and Mike Morin, all of whom soaked up innings at least somewhat effectively last season. And, depending on who remains on their 40-man roster once the offseason is through, the Angels will also have a variety of even lower-wattage options to sort through, like Blake Parker, Deolis Guerra, Kirby Yates, Meyer, and lefties Cody Ege, Ashur Tolliver and Greg Mahle.

Parker, Yates, Ege and Tolliver are all recent waiver claims, and the waiver claim has lately been the Angels’ most-used tool to compensate for their lack of farm system depth. The team could continue to tread down that narrow avenue and others like the Rule 5 Draft, which is where they originally got Guerra. It might even work, at least to a degree — Parker, in particular, seems likely to be at least somewhat productive in the big leagues, based on his recent minor league numbers. Still, the Angels will probably want to grab at least one experienced reliever on a big-league deal this offseason, particularly given the uncertainty regarding Street. They might also want to re-sign Andrew Bailey, who pitched well in 12 appearances with the team.

The Angels have many holes. Even if they spend relatively heavily, they aren’t likely to adequately fill them all, and it will be awhile before Eppler and his front office can produce enough homegrown talent for the team to start filling talent gaps with farm-raised players. For now, they’ll have to spend money, and be creative where spending on free agents won’t work. (The Angels do currently have the last protected pick in the 2017 draft, and therefore won’t risk losing a farm-system-nourishing first-round pick if they pursue free agents who have been extended qualifying offers.)

Mike TroutThe good news is that they have Trout, a player so terrific that the Angels can be competitive if the rest of their players are even adequate. A player who routinely produces nine-win seasons can hide a lot of problems. The 2017 Angels aren’t going to be perfect, but Trout alone gives them a solid chance at being decent, and some smart free-agent signings could make them even a bit better than that.

After the Angels’ rash of injuries last year, there was plenty of outside discussion about the team potentially trading Trout. But the speculation went nowhere, and understandably so. It would be extremely difficult for the Angels to get fair value for Trout, for one thing. Also, he only recently turned 25, and he’ll be under team control for four more seasons. That should be enough time for Eppler to improve the Angels’ talent base. If the team’s big-league core hasn’t significantly improved in a couple years, the Angels can easily wait to trade Trout then, as long as he stays healthy.

In the meantime, the situation in Anaheim isn’t as dire as last season made it look. The team’s farm system is an ongoing problem, and it gives the organization a low floor — injuries ruined the Angels’ 2016 season, and that could happen again next year or in 2018, because the organization currently doesn’t have the depth to compensate for them. That’s a serious concern, given that it isn’t automatic that Richards will be ready to pitch and pitch well. But with Trout, Calhoun, Simmons, Richards, Shoemaker and Bedrosian aboard, there’s plenty of talent. And with money to spend, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Eppler were able to cobble together another contending team before too long.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Devon Travis To Miss Rest Of Postseason

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SUNDAY: An MRI on Travis’ knee revealed a bone bruise with a small flap of cartilage caught in the joint, according to the Blue Jays. A knee scope is likely for Travis, whom the team expects to be ready for Spring Training.

SATURDAY: Blue Jays second baseman Devon Travis’ season is over after suffering a knee injury, Brendan Kennedy of the Toronto Star was among those to report (Twitter links: 1 2 3). Travis has been replaced on the Jays’ ALCS roster by Justin Smoak.

Notably, Travis had already suffered a knee injury this postseason, having suffered a bone bruise during the ALDS. Jays GM Ross Atkins claims, though, that Travis’ current knee troubles are unrelated, a condition that had to be met for Major League Baseball to approve a roster change at this point. MLB postseason roster rules also state that a player who has been replaced in the middle of a series due to an injury cannot play for the rest of the postseason, which means Travis can’t return for the World Series, should the Blue Jays advance.

Travis hit .300/.332/.454 in 432 plate appearances in the regular season. He has batted 1-for-12 this postseason, sharing playing time at second with Darwin Barney. Barney and Ryan Goins will presumably handle second base in his absence.

Quick Hits: Jaso, Yankees, Cubs, Athletics

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The Pirates want John Jaso to work out at third base and in the outfield this winter, MLB.com’s Adam Berry reports. Jaso was a catcher prior to the 2016 season, but moved to first base this year and had immediate success defensively, so it’s wouldn’t be that surprising if he were capable of handling third as well. The idea that Jaso could be used in a multi-positional role in 2017, though, suggests that the Pirates could have Josh Bell (a far worse defender than Jaso, but a younger player and a slightly better hitter, at least by 2016 statistics) take the bulk of the playing time at first base. The team already has David Freese available to back up Bell at first and Jung Ho Kang at third, so finding time for Jaso as a third baseman might be difficult. There might be a bit more space for Jaso in the outfield, with backups Matt Joyce and Sean Rodriguez eligible for free agency. Still, with another year remaining on his contract, Jaso could potentially be a trade candidate this winter or in Spring Training. Here’s more from around the league.

  • With Mark Teixeira retiring, the Yankees will have a new regular first baseman next season for the first time since Teixeira’s arrival in 2009, Chad Jennings of Lohud.com writes. GM Brian Cashman says the Yankees’ default approach next season will be to go with younger options at first. “[W]ithout having advance notice on what becomes available and what gets presented to you in various concepts – I would that that would be the way that we like to approach this going into Spring Training of next year,” he says. “Let the kids get a shot at it.” Greg Bird, Tyler Austin and Rob Refsnyder could all get opportunities at the position. Bird is currently playing in the Arizona Fall League after having missed the 2016 season due to a shoulder injury. If he proves he’s healthy, one would think he would have the inside track on playing time after batting .261/.343/.529 in his first 178 big-league plate appearances in 2016.
  • Top Cubs executive Theo Epstein sees parallels between the organization he currently runs and the one he led while with the Red Sox, Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald writes. Epstein’s Cubs made their first playoff run last season but were ousted by the Mets in the NLCS. His first playoff team in Boston fell in the ALCS to the other New York franchise in 2003. The next year, of course, the Red Sox won their first World Series since 1918. “I’ve had some flashbacks here and there. First few days of the offseason last year, after getting knocked out by the Mets, definitely felt like the same kind of galvanizing time that we had in Boston after Aaron Boone walked us off,” Epstein says. “Hopefully the same results: ’03 to ’04, ’15 to ’16.”
  • News that the Nevada Assembly has approved expenditures for a stadium designed to lure the Raiders from Oakland has no immediate impact on the Athletics, writes John Hickey of the Bay Area News Group. A’s owner Lew Wolff says he hasn’t heard anything about the possibility that the Raiders’ option to tell the A’s to find a new place to play should the Raiders find a home somewhere besides the Oakland Coliseum. “They were going to have to have a firm financial plan in place here if they were going to give us notice, and it doesn’t seem like that’s happening,” says Wolff. The A’s have been exploring other stadium options in Oakland, but for now, they don’t have any concrete plans to move.

Prospect Notes: Dodgers, Tebow, Skole

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Two of the best three prospects to graduate to the Majors this year are Dodgers products, Kyle Glaser of Baseball America writes. Shortstop Corey Seager and lefty Julio Urias rank Nos. 1 and 3 on BA’s list of the top ten graduated players, with only Trea Turner of the Nationals between them. Seager, of course, will almost certainly be the NL Rookie of the Year and is an NL MVP candidate after batting .308/.365/.512 while playing outstanding defense this season. Urias pitched just 77 innings for the Dodgers this season, but he only recently turned 20, and Glaser notes that his next step toward becoming a frontline starting pitcher is to build up his workload. Here are more quick notes on prospects.

  • The Mets’ signing of Tim Tebow to a minor league deal with a $100K bonus has received criticism lately, and it appears those criticisms could get louder, to judge from recent comments from a scout to NJ.com’s Randy Miller. “He’s pretty much a rookie ballplayer who’s 29. And I’m being nice,” said the scout, who watched Tebow in the Arizona Fall League. “He’s got a long ways to go. These guys are obviously way better than him.” The scout also criticized most elements of Tebow’s game, noting that Tebow struggled to hit fastballs and that Tebow might have to lose weight in order to play better defense. Tebow is currently hitting 0-for-9 with two walks in the AFL.
  • Former Rangers prospect and 2010 15th overall draft pick Jake Skole is on the opposite direction on Tebow’s path, heading from the diamond to the University of Georgia football program, according to Rusty Mansell of 247sports.com. Skole, who was born and raised in Georgia, will play a defensive position, although it’s unclear which one. As SportsDay’s Evan Grant notes, the Rangers released Skole in 2015, and he played in the Yankees organization this season. In parts of seven seasons in the minors, the former outfielder batted .227/.325/.330, topping out at Double-A and also receiving a 50-game PED suspension.
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