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Offseason Outlook: Kansas City Royals

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The 2024 Royals added 30 wins relative to the prior season, going from 56 to 86 and sneaking into the playoffs for the first time since their World Series win in 2015. Now they'll go into the winter as clear contenders for the first time in a while, but still with lots of uncertainty ahead.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Bobby Witt Jr., SS: $279MM through 2034 (Final four years are annual player options; Royals can trigger three-year club option for '35-'37 if Witt triggers all player options)
  • Seth Lugo, RHP: $30MM through 2026 ('26 is $15MM player option)
  • Salvador Perez, C: $24MM through 2025 (including $2MM buyout on '26 club option; $2MM of '25 salary is deferred)

Other Financial Commitments

Option Decisions

Total 2025 commitments (assuming Renfroe and Stratton are the only two options triggered): $61.5MM
Total future commitments (assuming Renfroe and Stratton are the only two options triggered): $348.5MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Taylor, Harvey, Hernández, Melendez

Free Agents

Coming into 2024, the Royals were an afterthought for many observers. They had spent close to a decade in the wilderness, finishing at .500 or below in each season from 2016 to 2023. But they managed to shoot back into contention this year and secure a postseason berth, mostly thanks to their starting pitching.

The Kansas City rotation had a 3.55 earned run average this year, second only to the Mariners. An aggressive offseason a year ago played a part in that, as the Royals were one of the more active teams last winter. Their two biggest free agent deals were for starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, both of which were big wins for the club this year. Lugo made 33 starts and tossed over 200 innings with a flat ERA of 3.00, which will surely lead to some Cy Young votes. Wacha got to 29 starts and 166 2/3 innings with a 3.35 ERA.

They also gave a massive extension to Bobby Witt Jr., who went on to have an MVP caliber season in 2024. Those moves and others pushed the payroll to $115MM, per Cot's Baseball Contracts, getting into nine-figure territory for the first time since their last competitive window closed. It's unclear whether they plan to maintain that level of spending, increase it or decrease it.

It was speculated by some that the free agent signings and the Witt extension last winter were an attempt by owner John Sherman to build some public goodwill that would help him secure public money for a new stadium. But in April, voters in Jackson County, Missouri rejected a sales tax measure that would have provided funding for a new stadium for the Royals as well as upgrades for Arrowhead Stadium, home of the NFL's Chiefs.

There's also the broadcast revenue situation to consider. The Royals were one of the clubs with Bally Sports in 2024 but they may not be able to continue that relationship going forward. Diamond Sports Group, the company that has owned Bally for years, has been in bankruptcy for almost two years now and is planning to significantly scale back its MLB operations in 2025. As of a few weeks ago, they were reportedly planning to cut ties with 11 of the 12 clubs they broadcasted in 2024, with the Royals one of the many on the chopping block. It's possible that a new deal could be worked out, but that would come with lower fees than the club had received previously. The Royals reportedly received $45MM as part of their deal with Diamond as recently as 2022.

Even though the club just had a strong season and got some playoff revenue, will Sherman have less interest in throwing money at the team now that the stadium situation is in no man's land and there's likely less TV money coming in?

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Should The Padres Move Adrián Morejón Back To The Rotation?

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Left-hander Adrián Morejón just wrapped up the best season of his major league career, at least so far. He had appeared in each of the seasons from 2019 to 2023 but never reached 35 innings pitched in any of those. In 2024, he made 60 relief appearances, logging 63 2/3 frames. He allowed 2.83 earned runs per nine innings in that time. His 26.1% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 51.4% ground ball rate were all better than league averages. He added another two appearances in the postseason.

Now the Padres and Morejón will have to decide what’s next. The southpaw came up as a starting pitching prospect and was highly regarded as a minor leaguer. The Cuban lefty secured an $11MM signing bonus from the Padres in 2016, before the league introduced the hard-capped international amateur spending system that currently exists. Baseball America considered him one of the top 100 prospects in the league from 2017 to 2021, with Morejón getting as high as #52 going into 2019.

But his trajectory slowed down since that peak of his prospect hype, largely due to injuries. In 2019, he made his major league debut but missed time due to a shoulder impingement. The 2020 season was shortened by the pandemic and there were no minor league games, limiting him to just nine appearances and less than 20 innings that year. In 2021, he required Tommy John surgery after just two starts. He was off the injured list by June of 2022 but missed time in the second half of that year due to shoulder inflammation. In 2023, he spent time on the IL due to a left elbow sprain and right knee inflammation, limiting him to just nine major league innings and less than 30 on the farm.

With all of those injuries, the Padres understandably kept him in a relief role this year. As mentioned up top, he stayed healthy and thrived in the bullpen. Based on the way the past few years went, the club might be tempted to just keep Morejón in the bullpen. With Tanner Scott set to reach free agency, Morejón arguably projects as the club’s best southpaw reliever for 2025, ahead of Wandy Peralta and Yuki Matsui.

But there’s upside to considering the alternative, with Garrett Crochet being a best-case scenario example of what’s possible. Like Morejón, Crochet was a top prospect who had spent the early parts of his career either hurt or pitching in relief. The White Sox stretched him out for a rotation role in 2024 with fantastic results, as he posted a 3.58 ERA over 146 innings. Even those numbers sell him short, as that club’s poor defense seemingly contributed to a .318 batting average on balls in play for Crochet this year. He struck out 35.1% of batters faced, limited walks to a 5.5% clip and got grounders on 45.1% of balls in play. If it weren’t for that high BABIP, he probably would have kept some more runs off the board, which is why his 2.69 FIP and 2.53 SIERA were far better than his ERA.

That’s not to say that the Padres should consider such a performance from Morejón to be likely, but it demonstrates the proverbial pot of gold they could chase. Crochet is now a borderline ace and he will likely be the top trade candidate of this offseason, with the White Sox looking at bringing back a king’s ransom in terms of young prospects.

Morejón threw five different pitches in 2024, suggesting there’s potentially still a starter’s repertoire in there, without him relying on any one pitch too much. His sinker, slider and four-seamer were all thrown between 23 and 36% of the time, while he also sprinkled in a splitter 7.6% of the time and a sweeper at a 2.6% clip. That helped him avoid the extreme splits that can often doom a pitcher to a specialized relief role. Lefties hit .255/.303/.367 off Morejón this year while righties were only slightly better at .257/.321/.405.

Due to Morejón spending so much time on the IL, he has managed to accrue more than four years of major league service time. That means that, despite his limited track record, he’s slated for free agency after 2026. But the missed time has also prevented him from increasing his earning power. He made $850K this year, barely above the $740K league minimum. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a modest bump to $1.8MM in 2025. He’d be able to secure one more arbitration raise for 2026 before hitting the open market.

That price point is important for the Padres. Due in part to the collapse of their broadcast deal with Diamond Sports Group, the club had to cut the payroll last winter. They flipped Juan Soto to the Yankees to help them duck under the competitive balance tax while also adding some needed starting pitching depth.

Starting pitching is again a concern for the Friars going into 2025, with the recent news that Joe Musgrove is set to miss all of next year recovering from Tommy John surgery. Michael King, Dylan Cease and Yu Darvish give the club a strong front three but they have question marks at the back end. Matt Waldron had a 3.71 ERA in the first half but an ugly 8.10 ERA in the second half. Randy Vásquez had a 4.87 ERA this year but with a tepid 14.4% strikeout rate and he also had an 8.21 ERA in his Triple-A starts. Musgrove will hopefully be back by 2026 but King and Cease are both slated for free agency after 2025, meaning there’s even less certainty in the future.

Improving the rotation will undoubtedly be a focus for president of baseball operations A.J. Preller this winter but the budget might again be an issue. The Friars already have an estimated $231MM CBT number for next year, according to RosterResource, just shy of next year’s $241MM base threshold. Assuming the club wants to avoid the tax again in 2025, that doesn’t give Preller a lot to work with and even back-end starters often get eight-figure deals in free agency. Last winter, Kyle Gibson got $13MM on a one-year deal, Lance Lynn got $11MM, Wade Miley and Alex Wood each got $8.5MM while Martín Pérez got $8MM.

In addition to filling out the rotation, Preller will be looking to replace lost offensive production. Each of Jurickson Profar, Ha-Seong Kim, Donovan Solano, David Peralta and Kyle Higashioka are slated to reach free agency, putting some notable dents in the lineup.

Given the club’s tight budget and long to-do list, it would be a great solution if Morejón could become a starter next year. That would be far cheaper than filling a rotation spot via the open market. There’s also the trade market but the Padres have sent out a lot of prospects in recent years and would probably love to avoid doing more of that, if possible.

But despite all the attraction of Morejón jumping into the rotation, there’s also the risk of another injury cropping up. In that scenario, it’s entirely possible that the Padres fall short of upgrading the rotation and also subtract a key lefty from the bullpen mix.

What do you think the Padres should do? Give him a shot at the rotation or stick with what’s working? Have your say in the poll below!

Where should the Padres put Adrián Morejón in 2025?
Bullpen 52.28% (824 votes)
Rotation 47.72% (752 votes)
Total Votes: 1,576

Ian Hamilton Replaced By Mark Leiter Jr. On Yankees’ ALCS Roster

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Major League Baseball announced that it has approved a roster substitution for the Yankees, with right-hander Ian Hamilton replaced by fellow righty Mark Leiter Jr. Playoff rules dictate that a player removed due to an injury is ineligible to play in that series as well as the following one, so Hamilton won’t be eligible to play in the World Series if the Yankees advance.

The move doesn’t come out of nowhere, as Hamilton was removed from last night’s game against the Guardians with an injury that he appeared to sustain while covering first base on a ground ball. The Yankees described his injury as left calf tightness and it now appears that it’s serious enough that they felt compelled to make a switch.

That could be because they don’t expect Hamilton back in the next few weeks or simply because they didn’t want to play short-handed for the next few days. The Yanks are about to play their second of three consecutive games and used six relievers in last night’s ten-inning contest that they eventually lost. Even if there was a chance that Hamilton’s calf would be healed by later in this series or in the World Series, they might need the extra arm to get through tonight and tomorrow.

Hamilton, 29, wasn’t the most important arm in manager Aaron Boone’s bullpen. Last night’s appearances was just his second of this year’s playoffs. But he was solid during the regular season, making 35 appearances with a 3.82 earned run average. He struck out 25.2% of batters faced, walked 8.2% of them and got grounders on 43.8% of balls in play. He earned one save and 11 holds this year, the latter number coming in third on the team behind Luke Weaver and Tommy Kahnle.

Leiter, 33, had some strong recent results with the Cubs but struggled after a deadline deal that sent him to the Bronx. From the start of 2022 until the trade, he posted a 3.85 ERA in 168 1/3 innings for the Cubs. In that time, he had a 28.9% strikeout rate, 8.8% walk rate and 47.8% ground ball rate.

At the end of July, the Yanks sent minor leaguers Ben Cowles and Jack Neely to the Cubs in order to acquire Leiter, but he posted a 4.98 ERA in his 21 appearances for the Yanks after that deal. While many Yankee fans groan at the mere mention of Leiter’s name, the baseball gods were seemingly responsible for a lot of those runs.

As a Yankee, Leiter’s 39% ground ball rate was subpar but his 31.7% strikeout rate was strong and his 8.7% walk rate around average. But he had a .407 batting average on balls in play and a 26.1% homer to fly ball ratio, both of which are unsustainably high. His 2.86 SIERA in that stretch suggests that he was far better than his ERA would have you believe in that small sample.

Leiter was left off the Yankee roster for the ALDS and ALCS but Hamilton’s injury opens the door for him. He and the Yankees will be hoping for better fortune as they look to defeat the Guardians and move on to the World Series. They lead the ALCS two games to one with game four set to begin in Cleveland at 8:08 local time tonight.

Jake Cave, Peter Lambert, Dakota Hudson Elect Free Agency

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The Rockies announced that outfielder Jake Cave as well as right-handers Dakota Hudson and Peter Lambert passed through outright waivers unclaimed. Each of the three players elected free agency rather than accept an assignment to Triple-A Albuquerque. The moves drop the club’s 40-man roster count to 38, as Hudson was on the 60-day IL and not taking up a spot.

All three players were eligible for arbitration this winter, so these moves effectively act as early non-tenders. Each player has more than three years of service time, meaning each has the right to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency.

Cave, 32 in December, was acquired from the Phillies in a cash deal coming into the 2024 season. He got into 123 games for the Rockies and stepped to the plate 346 times. Unfortunately, he hit just .251/.290/.396 in that time for a 75 wRC+. He now has a career batting line of .236/.292/.400 and an 80 wRC+ in over 1500 trips to the plate. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for a salary of $1.8MM next year but the Rockies will move on instead.

Hudson, 30, spent many years as a groundballer with the Cardinals. He had a 3.14 earned run average through 2021 but his ERA jumped to 4.45 in 2022 and 4.98 in 2023, so the Cards decided to non-tender him.

The Rockies brought him aboard via a modest $1.5MM guarantee but Hudson went on to post a 6.17 ERA this year. There may have been some bad luck in there, as he only stranded 63.5% of runners, but he also made things hard on himself. His 12.4% walk rate was not only above league average but also above his 12.1% strikeout rate. Colorado could have brought him back for a projected $2.3MM salary next year but understandably decided not to.

Lambert, 27, was a second-round pick of the Rockies back in 2015. He was a notable prospect for the club on his way up the ladder but hasn’t been able to cement himself in the big leagues. He debuted in 2019, making 19 starts that year but with a 7.25 ERA. He required Tommy John surgery in July of 2020, keeping out of action for all of that year and most of 2021. Right forearm inflammation limited him to just four minor league appearances in 2022.

He’s been largely healthy for the past two seasons, with the Rockies using him a frequently-optioned swingman. He has thrown 148 2/3 major league innings since the start of 2023, but with a 5.51 ERA. His 8.7% walk rate in that time is fine but his 18.5% strikeout rate is subpar.

He was projected for a $1.5MM salary next year, which is almost nothing in MLB terms, but he has exhausted all of his option years. That would make it harder for the Rockies to keep him on the roster going forward, so they have decided to bump him off today.

Latest On Yoán Moncada

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Infielder Yoán Moncada is going to get some reps next month. Per Francys Romero on X, Moncada will play for Cuba in the upcoming Premier12 tournament, which is set to take place in multiple countries in November.

He’s likely happy to get the playing time, as he only got 45 plate appearances over 12 games in 2024. That was mostly due to injury, as Moncada suffered a left adductor strain in April and didn’t come off the IL until mid-September. Even when he was back with the club, the Sox didn’t play him much, preferring to give the work to younger players with more potential to contribute in the long run.

Moncada is about to become a free agent. The Sox have a $25MM club option to keep him around for 2025 but they will certainly go for the $5MM buyout instead, since he hasn’t been his best self in a while.

Marketing himself to other clubs in free agency will be a challenge after an essentially lost season, which is surely part of the reason he’s planning to put his spikes on and play next month. He was also limited by injuries in the previous two seasons, playing just 196 games over 2022 and 2023 while hitting .234/.288/.386 for a wRC+ of 86.

Though he’s been injury prone of late and has seemingly been around forever, it’s easy to forget that he still hasn’t celebrated his 30th birthday, which will be in May. His high-profile defection from Cuba was over a decade ago, but he was just a teenager at that time. He went on to sign a huge deal with the Red Sox, when that was still possible under the old amateur spending rules, later getting traded to the White Sox as part of the Chris Sale mega trade before signing a notable extension with Chicago.

But he’s still relatively young and was in good form as recently as a few years ago. In 2021, he stayed healthy enough to play 144 games for the Sox. He slashed .263/.375/.412 that year for a 120 wRC+. He also received solid marks for his glovework, as he usually does, leading to a tally of 3.7 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs.

The recent injuries and tepid performance will both send him to free agency and knock down his earning power on the open market, but it’s possible that some clubs will view him as a strong bounceback candidate who could potentially provide strong return on a modest investment.

Jerry Reinsdorf Reportedly Discussing Sale Of White Sox

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White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf is open to selling the club and is in “active discussions” with a group led by Dave Stewart, reports Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic. It’s unclear how possible a sale is or how much progress the talks have made, but it would be a seismic shift for the franchise if it comes to fruition.

Reinsdorf, now 88 years old, is one of the more controversial owners in the sport. He bought the club in 1981 for about $20MM and has since developed a reputation for being on the meddlesome side, leading to reports of tumult from within the organization. Reinsdorf only owns an estimated 19% stake in the club, according to Forbes, but is nonetheless the principal owner of the club.

The club has had some success during his tenure as owner, including winning the 2005 World Series, but the Sox are at a very low ebb right now. They didn’t make the playoffs from 2009 to 2019, finishing below .500 during the majority of that stretch. A new core seemed to emerge and helped them make the postseason in 2020 and 2021, but that quickly proved to be unsustainable. They dropped to .500 in 2022 and lost 101 games last year before things got even worse in 2024. They lost 121 games this year, setting a new record for losses in the modern era.

Amid that downward slide, plenty of changes have taken place. In August of 2023, president Ken Williams and general manager Rick Hahn were fired after many years with the club. However, that shakeup was followed by the club promoting Chris Getz to general manager from within, seemingly not undertaking an extensive search for external candidates. Manager Pedro Grifol and some coaches were fired in August of 2024. Grady Sizemore took over as interim manager and it’s not yet clear who will be the club’s bench boss for 2025.

Those changes were arguable merited, but as the Sox were nearing their dishonorable place in history this year, Ghiroli and Ken Rosenthal put the franchise under the microscope in a lengthy piece for The Athletic last month. In it, various sources traced the club’s misfortunes to Reinsdorf. His slow embrace of analytics, his refusal to invest in amenities or player payroll and his insular loyalty were among the various complaints cited in the piece.

While many of the club’s fans have been clamoring for Reinsdorf to sell the club, it’s possible their wish is being granted in monkey-paw fashion, given who the buyer could be. Stewart is well-known in the baseball world for his playing career and also his post-playing ventures as a coach, executive, agent and stint as general manager of the Diamondbacks. In recent years, he has been involved with a group that has been trying to get an MLB franchise in Nashville, Tennessee. Stewart parted ways with Music City Baseball/the Nashville Stars but told Paul Skrbina of the Nashville Tennessean in May that he still had designs on getting a team to Nashville someday. Per today’s report from Ghiroli, he is now part of a group called Smoke34, a reference to his nickname and jersey number from his playing days. Ghiroli also mentions that Stewart and partner Lonnie Murray are trying to bring a National Women’s Soccer League team to Nashville.

Back in August of 2023, Greg Hinz of Crain’s Chicago Business reported that the Sox were exploring relocating within Chicago but that moving to Nashville was also under consideration. “Ever since the article came out, I’ve been reading about I’ve been threatening to move to Nashville,” Reinsdorf said in response, per Scott Merkin of MLB.com. “That article didn’t come from me. But if we have six years left, we’ve got to decide what’s the future going to be? We’ll get to it, but I never threatened to move out. We haven’t even begun to have discussions with the Sports Authority, which we’ll have to do soon.” In December, multiple sources (including Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times) reported that Reinsdorf met with Nashville mayor Freddie O’Connell.

There are still plenty of unknowns with this story and the next steps will require more details to come out. The talks between Reinsdorf and Stewart could in early/exploratory stages or they could be further along. It’s also possible that Stewart’s group is just one of several that Reinsdorf has spoken with or will eventually speak with. Speculatively speaking, it’s possible that Reinsdorf is using the threat of relocation to help get a new stadium built in Chicago. As covered previously at MLBTR, the Sox have discussed plans about a new stadium in Chicago’s South Loop on a parcel of land known as “The 78.” It’s not uncommon for owners of sports franchises to dangle the threat of relocation in an attempt to extract public money for real estate investments. The Sox, who have a lease at Guaranteed Rate Field through 2029, were reportedly looking to get a billion dollars in public money for their new stadium as of February.

Exploring a sale of the club also doesn’t mean it will ultimately come to pass. In recent years, teams like the Nationals and Angels announced plans to explore the possibility of selling, only to later pull back from those declarations. This situation appears to be somewhat different, in that some discussions have already taken place. Though as mentioned, it’s unclear how extensive those talks have been.

This is the second report this month of a club considering a sale. The Twins, divisional rival of the White Sox, are also on the block. The Pohlad family announced last week that they will explore the possibility of a sale. Reinsdorf is the second-longest active owner in Major League Baseball, trailing only the Steinbrenner family, who have owned the Yankees since 1973.

Latest On Tropicana Field

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Tropicana Field was damaged by Hurricane Milton last week, most notably with the majority of the roof being torn off. Per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, there’s still a lot of uncertainty around the full nature of the damage and what comes next, but it seems unlikely the Trop will be ready to host games by Opening Day of 2025.

The Rays are scheduled to be at home to start the next season, hosting the Rockies and then the Pirates for a six-game homestand that is supposed to start on March 27. But it seems there’s a decent chance the Trop won’t be playable by then. The facility doesn’t have any drainage, which means the lack of a roof is a significant problem until a solution is found. That’s on top of other potential damage that is still being assessed, laid out by Topkin in his piece.

The Rays had planned to build a new stadium adjacent to the Trop’s current location, with the hope being that it would be ready by 2028. It’s currently unclear if that timeline will be impacted by the hurricane damage. Even if that ends up being delayed, the club may have to make some tough decisions about the Trop, since it was planned for demolition to make room for the new stadium.

From a financial point of view, the club won’t want to devote significant resources into a facility that is on its last legs, which is perhaps why they are in this situation in the first place. Last week, Sam Blum of The Athletic spoke to David Campbell of Geiger Engineers, the group that installed the Trop’s roof back in 1990. He said the roof came with a timeline of roughly 25 years, meaning it probably should have been replaced a few years ago. But Campbell suggests that the plans for the new stadium probably pushed the club to forego the cost, which left the aging roof more vulnerable to the damage it ultimately sustained.

Campbell estimated that the roof could be fixed in five to six months “if the primary structure is serviceable.” That roughly lines up with the time until Opening Day 2025 but it’s possible that further inspection could find more damage and push that estimate, which is why the odds seem to be against the Trop being viable by March.

The Rays will now need to have some discussions about next steps and it seems there’s a wide range outcomes. “The Rays have to get a sense on whether they are looking for a temporary home for a few months, for a full season or for all three years,” Topkin writes. “Plus, Major League Baseball will have a say, and the players union is sure to be involved.”

Topkin goes on to mention a number of possible backup plans, which are all imperfect in various ways. A nearby minor league stadium would be convenient in some ways, as the location wouldn’t be drastically different, but each would likely require investment of some kind to get it closer to major league standards.

The minor league stadiums also don’t have roofs, which means frequent weather delays and postponements could become an ongoing problem. That’s on top of the logistical hurdles of sharing with the team that normally plays its home games there or moving that club elsewhere. Each venue would also come with concerns in terms of capacity, amenities, accessibility and so on.

There are also more extreme suggestions put forth, such as playing in a city like Durham or Charlotte, North Carolina; Nashville, Tennessee; Montreal, Quebec; or even San Juan, Puerto Rico. Those all seem to be speculative on the part of Topkin but perhaps those situations will get more serious consideration going forward. If such an extreme scenario does come to pass, it will make for an odd alignment with the Athletics. The A’s are planning to move to Las Vegas but their stadium is also not planned to open until 2028. Their lease in Oakland ran out and a new deal wasn’t reached, so the A’s are planning to play in Sacramento until then, in the Triple-A park of the Giants’ affiliate. It seems there’s at least some chance that two clubs are nomadic for the 2025-27 seasons, which would be an odd and unwelcome development for the league.

The full extent of the damage and related costs are still being worked out, which is why there is still a wide range of outcomes here, but it will be a notable storyline to follow in the coming weeks and months.

MLBTR Podcast: Changes In Minnesota, Cubs’ Prospect Depth, And Possibilities For The O’s

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • With Jed Hoyer in the last year of his contract, how aggressive will the Cubs be this offseason? Also, with so many top 100 prospects nearing the majors, how will that impact their offseason decisions? (10:10)
  • What is the feeling about the Orioles possible spending this offseason? Is there a sense of what could happen or is more wait-and-see in the inside baseball world? (26:55)
  • What do the Rangers need to do in this offseason in order to be competitive next year.  Any specific players they need to target? (32:45)
  • Willson Contreras seems like a logical fit for the Blue Jays if the Cardinals decide to move him. Only problem might be the return since the Cardinals want to shed money. Would this be likely? (34:55)
  • The Padres have spent significant resources to build its current roster, but the World Series title continues to elude them. With potential payroll issues looming, how do they maintain their success for 2025 and beyond? They have a good lineup and great bullpen, but how do they avoid being worse in 2025? (39:50)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Previewing FA Starting Pitchers, TV Deals, And Potential Spending Teams – listen here
  • Buster Posey Takes Over In SF And The Cardinals’ Succession Plan – listen here
  • Final Days In Oakland, The Surging Tigers, And If The Nats Will Pursue Juan Soto – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Alex Cobb Replaced By Ben Lively On Guardians’ ALCS Roster

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Major League Baseball announced that it has approved a roster change for the Guardians, with right-hander Alex Cobb replaced by fellow righty Ben Lively. MLB didn’t announce the specific nature of Cobb’s injury but the Guards announced it as an acute left low back strain. Per MLB playoff roster rules, a player removed with an injury is not eligible to return during that series nor in the subsequent series. That means that Cobb won’t be available for the World Series if Cleveland makes it, so his season is now over.

It’s an unfortunate development both for Cobb and the Guardians. The club acquired him prior to the deadline a few months ago in the hopes of bolstering their rotation, which had been slowed down both by injuries and underperformance. But Cobb had been having his own injury issues prior to the trade and struggled to stay healthy after it, which will impact his earning power as he heads into free agency this winter.

Cobb, 37, has a lengthy track record that includes a 3.84 earned run average in 233 starts dating back to his 2011 debut. He signed a two-year deal with the Giants for the 2022 and 2023 seasons and pitched rather well. He made 28 starts in each of those seasons, with his ERA coming in a bit below 4.00 in each of them. He tossed 301 innings in those two years with a 3.80 ERA, 22.1% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate and 59.4% ground ball rate.

He underwent hip surgery in October of 2023 with a six-month recovery estimate but the Giants still felt good enough about his prognosis to exercise a $10MM club option for the 2024 season. The news of his recovery was fairly positive throughout the winter and it seemed there was a chance that he could be pitching in the majors early in 2024, but he got transferred to the 60-day injured list in mid-April after he was slowed by shoulder inflammation. Even at that point, the Giants were hoping for a late-May return but his shoulder discomfort lingered.

He was still on the IL as the trade deadline was approaching but he was rehabbing at the time and the Guardians decided to take a shot on him, sending minor league left-hander Jacob Bresnahan and a player to be named later (later announced as minor league infielder Nate Furman) to San Francisco. The Guards had lost Shane Bieber to Tommy John surgery while hurlers like Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen and Carlos Carrasco had struggled badly. Despite the challenges in the rotation, the Cleveland bullpen was the best in baseball in 2024, helping them lead the American League Central for most of the way.

Cobb made his debut for the Guards on August 9 but only made two starts before going back on the IL, this time due to a fractured nail on his right hand. He was reinstated from the IL and made another start for Cleveland in early September but returned to the IL after that, this time due to blisters on his pitching hand.

Though he missed the final few weeks of the season, the Guards added Cobb to their roster for the ALDS against the Tigers. He started the third game of that series but was pulled after three innings, having thrown 41 pitches while allowing two earned runs. He then started the first game of the ALCS against the Yankees last night, tossing 65 pitches but without making it out of the third inning and with three earned runs on his ledger.

Now it seems this back injury will add to a very frustrating season for the veteran, as it’s evidently serious enough that they felt compelled to remove him. As mentioned, he won’t be eligible to return in the ALCS. If they make it to the World Series, he won’t be an option there either.

He’ll be heading into free agency having just turned 37 years old and without much of a platform season. Around the hip recovery, the shoulder problems, the hand issues and now this back strain, he only made the three regular season starts and two more in the postseason, logging a total of 22 innings.

For the Guardians, they will have to try to stay alive with their pitching depth thinned out even further. Without Cobb, they have Tanner Bibee, Matthew Boyd and Gavin Williams as their top three starters, with those three able to start the next three contests. By game five, scheduled for Saturday, they may have to consider a bullpen game, with guys like Joey Cantillo or Lively possibilities for bulk innings.

Lively, 32, had a solid year for the Guards in terms of surface-level results but less in terms of underlying numbers. He made 29 starts and logged 159 innings with a 3.81 ERA, but his 18.7% strikeout rate and 41.9% ground ball rate were both subpar. He did keep his walks down to a 7.8% clip and his 6.5% barrel rate was considered by Statcast to be in the 73rd percentile, but his 4.66 FIP and 4.58 SIERA suggest his ERA could be at least slightly misleading. Game two of the ALCS kicks off in the Bronx tonight at 7:38pm local time.

Brewers Manager Discusses Rotation Options

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The Brewers’ season came to a heartbreaking end last week, as they carried a lead into the ninth inning of their deciding game against the Mets in the Wild Card round, but the Mets put together a late rally and took the series. For Milwaukee, that means the focus has now shifted to 2025 and manager Pat Murphy recently discussed some topics related to the roster, with Curt Hogg rounding them up in a piece for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

One of the players Murphy discusses was Aaron Ashby. The lefty once looked like a budding starting before getting derailed by shoulder issues. He finished 2024 on a strong note out of the bullpen but it seems the skipper hasn’t given up on the possibility of the southpaw being a rotation option again in the future.

“If you’re asking me today if he belongs in that late inning role, I’d say no,” Murphy said. “I’d say he’s more of a candidate to throw more innings because his stuff is pretty special and there’s a variety there. That’s going to be discussed, the path. And it has to be player-driven. The player has to want certain things or at least be in a healthy discussion about it.”

Ashby showed his potential when he first came up to the big leagues. Over the 2021 and 2022 seasons, he tossed 139 innings in a swing role, making 23 starts and 17 relief appearances. He allowed 4.47 earned runs per nine innings but with better peripherals. He struck out 27.1% of batters faced, gave out walks at a 9.7% rate and kept balls in play on the ground at a 57.8% clip.

The Brewers clearly believed in what was ahead for Ashby, as they signed him to an extension during that 2022 campaign. The five-year deal guaranteed him $20.5MM and also came with club options for 2028 and 2029, valued at $9MM and $13MM respectively, with a $1MM buyout on the first one.

Unfortunately, the first year of that deal was wasted. Ashby dealt with shoulder problems in 2023 and eventually required arthroscopic surgery, not pitching in the majors at all. Here in 2024, Ashby had been relegated to a depth option. He spent most of the first half on optional assignment, being recalled twice to make spot starts.

In late August, Ashby was recalled from the minors and added to the Milwaukee bullpen. He tossed 19 2/3 innings over 12 appearances down the stretch, with excellent results. He had a 1.37 ERA, 36.8% strikeout rate, 3.9% walk rate and 51.1% ground ball rate.

Given those excellent results, there might be some temptation to just keep Ashby in a relief role, but it’s also understandable that the Brewers haven’t given up on the rotation path. A solid starter is more useful to a club than a good reliever, generally speaking, and the Brewers should be able to put together a bullpen without Ashby’s contributions. Even if Devin Williams is traded, which seems to be on the table, Milwaukee can turn to guys like Trevor Megill, Joel Payamps, Bryan Hudson and Jared Koenig for key bullpen roles.

The variety that Murphy referred to is indeed present, as Ashby threw five different pitches in the majors this year: a four-seamer, sinker, changeup, curveball and slider. It seems he had a bit of rust in harnessing that arsenal while getting over his lost season in 2023, as he walked 17.4% of batters faced in Triple-A this year while posting an 8.04 ERA. But as mentioned, he was able to get in a good grove by the end of the year.

Going forward, it seems Ashby can still try to carve out a rotation role if he wants one. Also in the rotation mix will be Tobias Myers, who Murphy views as a lock for a job. “In my thoughts, he’s a definite,” Murphy said. “But he’s got to go do it in the offseason. He’s got to come back out, recapture that mentality and recapture the arsenal, which isn’t always easy.”

It’s unsurprising that Myers has earned some job security after his strong performance in 2024. He pitched 138 innings for the Brewers this year with a flat 3.00 ERA. He had a 22.3% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate and 37.6% ground ball rate. He benefitted a bit from a .282 batting average on balls in play and 81.1% strand rate, but even his 3.91 FIP and 3.99 SIERA suggest he would have been solid without as much favor from the baseball gods.

There are some questions for the Brewers to answer in their rotation going forward. Freddy Peralta will be locked into one spot and it seems Myers will as well. Colin Rea posted a 4.29 ERA this year and the Brewers have a $5.5MM club option for 2025 with a $1MM buyout. That makes it a net $4.5MM decision, which is a bargain for a solid back-end starter. Guys like Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson and Luis Severino got one-year deals worth between $11MM and $13MM last offseason. The Brewers themselves gave $8.5MM to Wade Miley, though he unfortunately required Tommy John surgery early in the year.

Aaron Civale can be retained for 2025 but he will cost more than Rea. He’s eligible for arbitration and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a salary of $8MM next year. Given the aforementioned prices for back-end starters, that’s reasonable for Civale, who had a 4.36 ERA in 31 starts this year. But the Brewers generally work with tight budgets and might have less TV revenue coming in next year, so perhaps they might explore the trade market.

DL Hall is another option, as he worked both out of the rotation and bullpen in 2024. But he missed a lot of time due to a left knee sprain and wasn’t able to pile up a big sample of work. He finished the year with a 5.02 ERA across seven starts and six relief appearances.

Another big question mark will be Brandon Woodruff, who missed all of 2024 recovering from shoulder surgery. He’s under contract for 2025 but he’ll be a great unknown for next year, likely until spring training rolls around. Robert Gasser could return late next year after undergoing UCL surgery a few months ago. Jacob Misiorowski is one of the best pitching prospects in the league and he finished the year at Triple-A, but he also walked 14.4% of batters faced on the year and might still need some fine tuning.

Between Peralta, Myers, Woodruff, Ashby, Hall, Rea, Civale and Misiorowski, the Brewers have eight potential rotation options, though the long winter ahead could change the picture via additions or subtractions.

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