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Offseason Outlook: Miami Marlins

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It's been almost a year since the Marlins hired Peter Bendix as their president of baseball operations. Since then, the club has been defined by a no-holds-barred commitment to the future, with seemingly no regard to PR considerations. They made almost no investments in the club last winter, aggressively traded away established players during the season and recently parted ways with their manager, their entire coaching staff and almost every other employee. Expect more of the same this offseason, with the club's collection of starting pitchers likely to be in plenty of trade rumors.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Sandy Alcántara, RHP: $36MM through 2026 (including $2MM buyout on 2027 club option)
  • Woo-Suk Go, RHP (no longer on 40-man roster): $2.75MM through 2025 (including $500K buyout on 2026 mutual option)

Additional Financial Commitments

Option Decisions

  • none

Total 2025 commitments: $39.75MM
Total future commitments: $85.75MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Fortes

Free Agents

  • None.

The Marlins snuck into the playoffs in 2023 but it quickly became clear that owner Bruce Sherman didn't have faith in the club's overall direction. Shortly after the club was eliminated from the postseason, it was reported that he planned to hire a president of baseball operations to work above general manager Kim Ng. Understandably, she decided to turn down her end of a mutual option for 2024, rather than accept what was essentially a demotion. Manager Skip Schumaker was reportedly annoyed at the pivot, and the club agreed to void a 2025 club option in his contract, making it clear he wouldn't return beyond the 2024 season.

The sudden shakeup was frustrating for fans, but there was some logic to it. That 2023 club actually had a -57 run differential and a 33-14 record in one-run games, a hard feat to repeat. The farm system was generally regarded as one of the worst in the league by any outlet that measures such things.

Despite the playoff berth, change was afoot and that has been the name of the game since then. Rays general manager Peter Bendix was hired as president of baseball operations and showed that he essentially viewed the franchise in the same way as Sherman, with little regard for the club's short-term chances. The largest free agent deal they gave out last winter was $5MM for Tim Anderson.

The prophecy, somewhat self-fulfilled, came true quickly in 2024. The Marlins got out to a horrible start and Bendix didn't hesitate to start the selloff, with Luis Arráez flipped to the Padres in the first week of May. He continued the selloff closer to the deadline by sending out A.J. Puk, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Trevor Rogers, Tanner Scott, Bryan Hoeing, Bryan De La Cruz, Huascar Brazobán, JT Chargois and Josh Bell. That list might have been even longer if it weren't for a large number of injuries to other potential trade candidates.

By the end of the 2024 season, the Marlins had accumulated 62 wins and 100 losses. It's clear that everything is focused on the long-term picture and there are no sacred cows. As mentioned up top, just about any major league player with trade value has seemingly been available. The manager is leaving, as is the entire coaching staff. Per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the club is parting ways with more than 70 employees, including "the team’s dietitian, home clubhouse manager and traveling secretary, and others." Though it has been painful and has been ruthless, it is commendable in a shocking sort of way that the club has committed to a long-term plan and is clearly dedicated to seeing it through.

Going forward, it seems fair to expect more of the same, at least until the club believes they have a core in place that is worth building around. Assuming that's the case, the Marlins will continue to trade big league pieces this winter, in the name of rebuilding for some future competitive window.

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Latest On Jeff McNeil

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The Mets have been without infielder/outfielder Jeff McNeil for over a month now, as he fractured his wrist in early September and has been out of action since. But he could be nearing a return to the club, per Tim Healey of Newsday on X. McNeil is going to play in the Arizona Fall League on Friday and Saturday with manager Carlos Mendoza hoping for McNeil to play a full nine-inning game on both of those days.

During the regular season, it’s routine for injured players to join a minor league club as part of a rehab assignment, spending a few days or weeks getting back into game shape before being activated from the IL. But the minor league seasons have all been completed by this time of year, so the AFL will have to do. The competition tends to be a mixed bag, as some top prospects will be involved but clubs also often send guys who missed a lot of time due to injury and need reps to play catch-up. A full overview of the rosters was recently provided by Jim Callis, Sam Dykstra and Jonathan Mayo in a piece for MLB.com.

In the meantime, the Mets will be trying to get through the Phillies and move on to the NLCS. They are currently up 2-1 in the series and could finish the series tonight. If the Phils emerge victorious in game four, the fifth game is scheduled for Friday. If the Mets eventually win the NLDS, they would square off against either the Padres or Dodgers in the NLCS starting on Sunday.

If McNeil is able to showcase his health by then, and the Mets are still alive, the club will have to make some decisions about their NLCS roster and playing time. Luisangel Acuña has only received two plate appearances in the playoffs so far, striking out both times, and could perhaps be the logical guy to be left off next round’s roster.

The more interesting question might be how McNeil is used once on the roster. He won the batting title in 2022 but has been roughly league average at the plate over the past two years. He’s hit .257/.323/.381 since the start of 2023 for a wRC+ of 99.

He got out to a rough start this year, hitting .217/.278/.306 through the end of June for a wRC+ of 69. He then caught fire for a couple of months, hitting .271/.353/.506 for a 140 wRC+ from July until he was hit by a pitch and suffered his fracture.

Getting that red-hot version of McNeil back on the field would be great but it’s also possible there will be some rust after his layoff. Jose Iglesias took over the second base job and had a great season, hitting .337/.381/.448 for a 137 wRC+. He’s gone cold in the playoffs, however, with a .231/.231/.231 line through 26 trips to the plate. McNeil could also perhaps take some time from Starling Marte in an outfield corner, as he is hitting just .222/.304/.222 in the postseason so far.

Both Iglesias and Marte hit right-handed while McNeil is a lefty, so a platoon could be a consideration for Mendoza. He’s already platooning the designated hitter slot, with Jesse Winker and J.D. Martinez both performing well. NLCS roster announcements will be made Sunday morning.

Reds’ Julian Aguiar Considering Tommy John Surgery

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9:19pm: Shelton issued a correction to his previous report (on X). Aguiar is considering undergoing Tommy John but has not yet undergone any procedure. He is getting a second opinion.

4:20pm: Reds right-hander Julian Aguiar recently underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss the entire 2025 season, per Mark Sheldon of MLB.com on X. Sheldon also relays that the club has fired three coaches: hitting coach Joel McKeithan as well as assistant hitting coaches Terry Bradshaw and Tim LaMonte.

Aguiar, 23, was able to make his major league debut this year. As the Reds dealt with multiple rotation injuries, he was selected to the big league roster in August. He made seven starts, allowing 6.25 earned runs per nine innings, before landing on the 15-day injured list in September due to a right elbow sprain. It now seems that the determination was made in the past few weeks that he would require surgery. Lefty Brandon Williamson also required Tommy John surgery last month, so that’s two Cincinnati hurlers that are now slated to miss the upcoming season.

It’s an unfortunate blow for him and the team. Given that Tommy John rehabs generally take 14 months or longer, Aguiar will miss the entire 2025 campaign, depriving the club of pitching depth and costing him a year of development. Aguiar is currently listed as the club’s #9 prospect at Baseball America while FanGraphs had him at #7 in April. Both outlets consider him a possible backend starter someday, but that will have to wait until 2026 at the earliest.

A 12th-round pick from 2021, Aguiar has climbed the ladder since then. In 2024, in addition to his major league debut, he tossed 116 1/3 innings on the farm between Double-A and Triple-A. In that time, he had a 3.79 ERA, 19.7% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate. If there’s one silver lining for Aguiar, it’s that he’ll collect major league pay and service time at least through the end of next year, assuming the Reds keep him on the roster through the winter.

Turning to the coaching staff, it was undoubtedly a disappointing year for the Cincinnati offense. The club had graduated a boatload of exciting position players in 2023 and the club had postseason aspirations going into 2024. But Cincinnati hitters put up a collective slash line of .231/.305/.388 in 2024. That production translated to a wRC+ of 87, putting them ahead of only the White Sox, Rockies, Pirates and Marlins.

It’s always tough to decipher whether credit/blame should be assigned to coaches or players but that’s especially true in this case as the Reds were missing many of their expected contributors for much of the year. Noelvi Marté received an 80-game PED suspension in March while players like Matt McLain, TJ Friedl, Jeimer Candelario, Jake Fraley, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and others spent significant time on the injured list.

Regardless, the club has decided a significant overhaul is needed and is moving on from three hitting coaches, who all joined going into 2023. McKeithan was a minor league hitting coach for the Phillies in 2019, despite being just 26 years old for much of that season. He also worked in the Tigers’ minor league system before getting hired by the Reds as an assistant hitting coach on the major league staff for the 2022 season. One year later, he was promoted to the top hitting coach job but is now out after two seasons in that job.

Bradshaw played in the majors in the ’90s but has been a coach for a number of years now. He was working in the Royals’ organization back in 2000 and got promoted to their big league hitting coach job in 2018. He was fired in 2022 and came to the Reds as an assistant to McKeithan. LaMonte was also hired as an assistant on McKeithan’s staff at that time after working for the Astros and Mets.

The Reds recently fired manager David Bell and hired Terry Francona to replace him. It’s not uncommon for coaching changes to accompany managerial changes, so Francona will seemingly be looking to shake things up on the hitting side of things at least.

MLB To Take Over Broadcasts For Twins, Guardians, Brewers In 2025

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Major League Baseball announced that it will take over the distribution of local broadcasts for the Twins, Guardians and Brewers in 2025. All three of those clubs previously had deals with Diamond Sports Group, which owns the Bally Sports Networks. But those deals all expired after 2024 and it was reported this week that Diamond is planning to make cutbacks to the number of teams on its slate of baseball broadcasts.

MLB will now be handling the broadcasts of at least six clubs, as it was already distributing for the Padres, Diamondbacks and Rockies. Fans will be able to sign up for direct-to-consumer streaming packages without blackouts, except for games that are being broadcasted nationally. The Rangers also saw their Diamond deal expire in 2024 but seem to be in a different situation for now. MLB announced that Texas wouldn’t be continuing with Diamond but are exploring local options for 2025.

The Regional Sports Network model has been decaying for many years and this news is latest part of the crumbling. For years, broadcasters would pay clubs for the right to have exclusive local broadcasting rights, which would often lead to frustration among fans. Baseball games were harder to access and some fans found themselves in the blackout areas of multiple different teams. However, these deals were a significant source of annual revenue for teams.

But as consumers cut cords and move away from buying cable packages, the model has been less effective and several deals have already fallen apart. Diamond has been going through the bankruptcy process since early in 2023. As mentioned, the Padres, Diamondbacks and Rockies didn’t have a local broadcasting deal for 2024. The Padres and Diamondbacks had previously been with Diamond while the Rockies were with AT&T SportsNet Rocky Mountain. Fans in those markets were able to pay MLB directly to watch the team in 2024, with no blackouts, for $19.99 per month or $99.99 for the year. Dan Hayes of The Athletic relays on X that the Twins will be charging a similar price next year.

While that was a nice development for many fans, it wasn’t good for the teams. By all accounts, the revenue generated from this model is lower than what the clubs were previously receiving from the cable model, as the latter led to a passive stream of revenue from fans who signed up for cable packages but didn’t watch much or any baseball. The direct-to-consumer model cuts out the middleman but is dependent on active fan interest.

The MLB announcement today says that the “reach” of the Guardians via RSN was 1.45 million homes, with the Twins at 1.08 million. The league relays that between four and five million homes will now have access to their local clubs via these streaming options, but not all of them will sign up and it’s unclear what sort of rates are to be expected. Twins president Dave St. Peter expects the club to receive less broadcast revenue in 2025, per Aaron Gleeman of the Athletic on X, though he added that he expects greater revenue in the future.

In short, the move is good for fans in terms of simply watching the games. But since it’s bad for the teams on the business side, it could have spillover effects into roster construction. Last offseason, declining broadcast revenue seemed to have significant ripple effects in terms of transactions. The Padres trading Juan Soto to the Yankees, for instance, seemed to be motivated by the Friars needing to make budget cuts. Teams like the Rangers, Twins and others either cut their payrolls or didn’t raise them as much as expected, which led to certain free agents having fewer suitors than anticipated and a weak market for free agents in general.

Whether this will have an immediate impact on the decisions of the Twins, Guardians and Brewers will remain to be seen. The Twins already cut their payroll significantly a year ago in the wake of uncertainty with Diamond. There was seemingly some chance of the deal collapsing before the Twins re-signed for another year but with reduced fees. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the payroll went from $154MM in 2023 to $127MM in 2024. Per recent reporting, the club isn’t planning further payroll cuts but it doesn’t appear as though an increase is coming either. Per Gleeman on X, St. Peter doesn’t think this news impacts the payroll relative to those recent reports as the club already knew this was coming.

The Rangers appear to be exploring a different path. Last month, it was reported by Tom Friend of the Sports Business Journal that the club is looking into developing their own direct-to-consumer streaming service, independent of MLB. Presumably, the benefit to handling it themselves would mean they reap more direct revenue, but they would also spend more on the day-to-day costs of running the operation. If they eventually find this path too challenging, it seems fair to assume that letting MLB take over would be a fallback option.

Uncertainty around the broadcast situation seemed to impact the Rangers last year. Though they won the 2023 World Series, they followed that up with a relatively modest offseason, not signing any deals larger than the two years and $22MM they gave to Tyler Mahle. How their current plan will play out perhaps has even less certainty than the other three clubs, so it will be an interesting situation to watch.

There will be other long-term questions to be answered in time. Commissioner Rob Manfred intends to market a streaming package consisting of multiple teams at some point in the future, perhaps as soon as 2025. MLB.TV has existed for years but with consumers affected by local blackout rules. The idea going forward would be to essentially make a blackout-free version of MLB.TV. There would be complications in such a plan, as clubs like the Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs and others handle their own games via broadcasters that are at least partially owned by the team. Given their relatively stable footing, they would have less interest in joining such a plan with the other clubs.

As for Diamond, they had deals with 12 clubs in 2024. It was recently revealed that they are only fully committed to one for 2025, which is Atlanta. As part of that reporting last week, Diamond was apparently willing to renegotiate with other clubs but wanted to pay reduced fees. It seems that won’t happen with the four clubs mentioned in today’s announcement, so the Diamond slate will be down to a maximum of eight clubs in 2025 but perhaps that will go even lower of some others decide to make a deal like this with MLB instead.

Latest On Giants’ General Manager Search

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The Giants are remaking their front office, looking to hire a new general manager and maybe other executives as well. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle has reported some of the latest details today. Notably, the club has asked the Athletics to speak to assistant general manager Billy Owens. Other candidates include Jeremy Shelley, who is already with the Giants as an assistant GM, and old friend Bobby Evans. However, Slusser adds that the club is planning to do a thorough search that could take weeks, which perhaps suggests the list of possible candidates will include many people not specifically named here.

For most baseball clubs these days, the general manager is the second spot on the decision-making pyramid, with the title of president of baseball operations usually going to the top dog. That will be the case for the Giants but perhaps this GM job will be a bit more important than others around the league.

Buster Posey was just given the POBO title and will be the club’s chief decision maker, but he has come to the gig via an unusual path. Many presidents get their jobs after years working for clubs either in scouting or analytics, climbing the ladder over time. Posey was on the field as a player just three years ago, retiring after 2021. He later joined the club’s ownership group, purchasing a minority share in September of 2022, getting a seat on the board of directors.

It seems Posey was fairly active in that role. Back in January, Taylor Wirth of NBC Sports Bay Area relayed that Posey and righty Logan Webb were working together to recruit free agents to San Francisco. Last month, it was reported by Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic that Posey has taken a leading role in the Matt Chapman extension negotiations even though Farhan Zaidi was still the POBO at that time. Posey was given Zaidi’s job shortly thereafter and the club decided to reassign GM Pete Putila and give that title to someone else to assist Posey.

Despite Posey clearly taking a hands-on role as a partial owner, his unusual track record and quick ascent could mean that he might need a GM who has lots of experience with the day-to-day nitty-gritty of running a baseball team.

Evans certainly qualifies, as fans of the Giants are well aware. He was hired by the Giants in 1994 as a minor league administrative assistant and worked his way through various other titles, including director of minor league operations in 1998, director of player personnel in 2005, vice president of baseball operations in 2009 and general manager in 2015. The Giants had plenty of success in that time, winning titles in the even-numbered years from 2010 to 2014, but their results declined in the seasons to come and Evans was fired after the 2018 campaign as the club pivoted to Zaidi.

Since that time, Evans has emerged as a candidate for other front office jobs but hasn’t landed a gig. He interviewed for the Astros in 2020, though that GM job ultimately went to James Click. Evans also interviewed for the Angels’ GM position prior to 2021, a position that went to Perry Minasian. When the Astros surprisingly moved on from Click after winning the 2022 World Series, Evans got another interview but Dana Brown ultimately secured that spot. Per Slusser, Evans has been working for various nonprofit organizations since his time with the Giants.

Though he has been in the wilderness for a few years, perhaps Posey will bring him back to San Francisco. It’s unclear if he’s being considered for the GM spot or some other advisory role. Either way, he and Posey are presumably plenty familiar with each other from their overlapping time with the club, as Posey was drafted in 2008 and made it to the big leagues for the Giants by 2009. The fact that Evans is now a candidate to work with Posey again, though in different circumstances, suggests the two had a good relationship during that previous era.

It may be a similar situation with Shelley. Per his bio at MLB.com, he has been working with the Giants for over 30 years now, so his time with the club also overlaps with Posey’s time as a player but also as partial owner/board member. Shelley started as a baseball operations intern in 1994 before moving up to administrative assistant in the baseball operations department in 1996. He then became director of baseball operations in 2006, senior director of baseball operations/pro scouting in 2009 and vice president, pro scouting and player evaluation in 2013.

It would be a different situation with Owens, who has been working for the A’s for over 20 years now. Per an MLB.com profile by Bill Ladson published last year, Owens started with the A’s in 1999 as a minor league hitting instructor. He later became a scout and then a scouting coordinator. By 2010, he was named director of player personnel and he got the assistant GM title five years after.

This isn’t the first time his name has emerged for a job away from the A’s. Like Evans, he was a candidate for the Angels’ GM gig that went to Minasian in late 2020. That same offseason, he was considered for a GM role by the Mets, but Jared Porter got that spot at that time.

Craig Breslow, Sam Kennedy Discuss Red Sox’ Offseason

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The Red Sox flirted with playoff contention at times in 2024 but ultimately fell short, finishing five games back of a Wild Card spot at 81-81. That puts their focus on the offseason and Alex Speier of the Boston Globe published a column today, trying to read the tea leaves on some recent comments from chief baseball officer Craig Breslow as well as president and CEO Sam Kennedy.

Notably, the comments suggest the club plans to enter the winter with more of a win-now mentality. “It’s time to take that next step. It really is time,” said Kennedy. “You really need to build a roster and have a team that is built to win that division. That’s where we want to get to. We just have to go and do the right things that put us in that position to push towards 90-95 wins.” Kennedy has also stated that the club feels they have “building blocks” in place that they can construct a club around.

Of course, many fans will be quick to point to chairman Tom Werner’s “full throttle” comments from a year ago as a reason to be skeptical, since the club didn’t really follow through on that promise. Generally speaking, the Sox had a relatively future-focused offseason going into 2024, with the most notable move being the trade that sent Chris Sale to Atlanta for infielder Vaughn Grissom. That deal has gone very poorly so far for the Sox, as Sale went on to have an excellent season for his new club while Grissom struggled immensely after that deal.

But as Speier points out, most of the comments made by the Boston brass around this time a year ago were far more measured, with the “full throttle” quote being the exception that received the most attention. Breslow has recently suggested that a deal like the Sale-Grissom swap will get less consideration this offseason.

“That was a decision that was made with a longer-term focus in mind as much as 2024,” said Breslow on NESN’s 310 to Left podcast, as relayed by Speier. “Exclusively looking at the future is not something that we should be prepared to do as we embark on this offseason heading into 2025. Otherwise, fans would be rightfully frustrated with this continued push-off into the future of the window of contention. We can no longer ask our fans to look to the future, to think about a Red Sox team that’s capable of winning the division and capable of making a deep postseason run. We have to talk to decisive actions that we’re taking right now to put a better team on the field in 2025.”

Breslow echoed Kennedy’s comments that the club is setting a high target for next year. “It’s time to deliver the team that’s capable of winning the AL East and making a deep playoff run,” said Breslow. “If that means that guys who haven’t yet made their big-league debut need to be on the team to help us do that, then we have to be prepared for that. And if it means we have to be aggressive in bringing players in who aren’t currently in the organization to complement those who are, we have to be open to doing that as well.”

If the Red Sox are planning to be more aggressive, that could come in many forms. One of them would be financially, as the club could decide to return to being a top spender. Per the calculations of Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Sox had one of the top five payrolls in the league from 2004 to 2020, including being first overall a few times, but they have dipped since. They were eighth in 2021, sixth the year after that and then 12th in the two most recent seasons.

Per RosterResource, the Sox have about $105MM committed to the 2025 roster, well shy of this year’s $183MM. That doesn’t include the club’s arbitration-eligible players, but they have a fairly modest class this winter. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects salaries just under $5MM for Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Jarren Duran, the entirety of the club’s arb group. Even if Boston were only to carry the same payroll forward from 2024 to 2025, they would have a lot of powder dry, while they would naturally have even more to work with if they decide to push payroll up.

Another possibility would be to be active on the trade front, with Breslow acknowledging that they might have to make some tough decisions about which players stay and which ones go. “There are going to be a lot of really good major league players who aren’t going to realize their value in Red Sox uniforms because only one guy can do that at a time at second base or shortstop or center field,” said Breslow.

The Sox have promoted a number of young prospects to the big leagues in recent years, with those players having varying degrees of major league success. Duran had a huge step forward defensively this year, which made him a hugely valuable piece when combined with his offense and baserunning. He’s only just reaching arbitration for the first time as a Super Two player and can be retained for four more seasons. Triston Casas has a great combination of power and on-base ability, with four years of club control beyond this one. Connor Wong and Wilyer Abreu also had some encouraging results in 2024 and will still be pre-arb in 2025.

On top of those players, the Sox also have long-term deals for Rafael Devers, Trevor Story, Ceddanne Rafaela and Masataka Yoshida. They could pick up a cheap 2025 option on Rob Refsnyder for $2.1MM. There’s also the club’s emerging group of position player prospects. Catcher Kyle Teel, infielder/outfielder Kristian Campbell, shortstop Marcelo Mayer and outfielder Roman Anthony are all considered top 100 guys and each has now reached the Triple-A level, so they will be pushing for major league jobs next year. (Mayer technically hasn’t played in a Triple-A game yet as he landed on the injured list shortly after being promoted to that level.)

With Danny Jansen heading to free agency, there could be an easy path for Teel to eventually share time behind the plate with Wong. If Mayer eventually takes over the club’s shortstop job, Story could perhaps move to second, squeezing out other guys on the roster. Rafaela has played both the middle infield and the outfield, but Boston’s options on the grass already include Duran, Abreu and Refsnyder with Anthony on the way. Campbell, like Rafaela, can play both the middle infield and the outfield and will be a factor somewhere at some point.

As Breslow suggested, the club likely can’t find jobs for everyone here, which will naturally lead to some interesting trade discussions this winter. With all these players and only so many spots, perhaps Breslow could acquire some pitching from another club. Boston had a collective 4.05 earned run average in 2024, 16th among the 30 major league clubs. They are now slated to lose Nick Pivetta, Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin to free agency.

Between the trade market and the club’s financial situation, Breslow should have all kinds of options to consider this winter as he tries to push the Sox forward in a crowded American League East for 2025. The Yankees and Orioles just wrapped up strong seasons. The Rays and Blue Jays disappointed in 2024 but have been in good form in prior years and will be looking to bounce back in 2025.

Submit Your Questions For This Week’s Episode Of The MLB Trade Rumors Podcast

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On the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, we regularly answer questions from our readers and listeners. With the next episode set for Wednesday, we’re looking for MLBTR’s audience to submit their questions and we’ll pick a few to answer.

The 2024 postseason is well underway, with the offseason just over the horizon. If you have a question about a past transaction, a look ahead to the winter or anything else baseball related, we’d love to hear from you! You can email your questions to mlbtrpod@gmail.com.

Also, if you want to hear your voice on the podcast, send us your question in audio form and we might play it. iPhone users can find instructions on how to do so here.

In the meantime, don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

Kodai Senga To Start NLDS Game One For Mets

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TODAY: The Mets made Senga’s return official when announcing their NLDS roster this morning.  Senga was activated from the 60-day IL and Megill was also added to the 26-man roster that will face the Phillies.  Right-handers Huascar Brazoban and Max Kranick were removed from the Wild Card Series roster to make room for Senga and Megill, and Blackburn was moved to the 60-day IL in the corresponding 40-man move for Senga.

OCTOBER 4: The Mets are facing off against the Phillies in the National League Division Series, with the first game set for Saturday afternoon. Manager Carlos Mendoza told reporters today that right-hander Kodai Senga will start that first game for the Mets. Mike Puma of The New York Post was among those to relay the news on X.

The Mets have received close to nothing from Senga this year. He suffered a capsule strain in his throwing shoulder in Spring Training, which kept him on the injured list for months. He was reinstated off the injured list and made his season debut on July 26, but was removed from that game after 5 1/3 innings due to a calf strain and went right back on the IL. He tried to return late in the regular season but was slowed by some triceps soreness.

That lack of production from Senga was a blow to the Mets. He made his major league debut in 2023 and tossed 166 1/3 innings with a 2.98 earned run average. His 11.1% walk rate was on the high side but he struck out 29.1% of batters faced and got grounders at a 44.7% clip. Despite that, the Mets managed to squeak into the postseason and then defeat the Brewers in the Wild Card series while Senga remained on the IL.

Yesterday, Will Sammon of Athletic reported that the Mets were considering Senga for their NLDS roster. Now it seems that the righty will not only get a roster spot but will take the ball to get the series started.

The question will be what the Mets can expect from Senga after so much time off. Per Sammon’s report, he recently threw a 25-pitch bullpen session but will probably be limited to a short outing, so perhaps this will be Senga acting more as an opener than a true starter in the classically understood sense. “We’ll see,” Mendoza said today when asked about how long Senga can go, per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com on X. “We’re going to let it play out.”

The Mets have had to get creative with their pitching staff lately. Two of their games against Atlanta in the final week of the regular season were delayed by Hurricane Helene. While 28 of the 30 clubs in the league had the day off on Monday, those two clubs had to play a double-header as each still needed a victory to get into the playoffs. The Mets won the first game in an 8-7 thriller, using Tylor Megill as the starter and then four relievers, including closer Edwin Díaz throwing 40 pitchers as he got the final five outs.

With their playoff spot secured, they used Joey Lucchesi and two relievers to get through the second game of the twin bill, but then they had to start their series in Milwaukee the very next day. Luis Severino started the first game, Sean Manaea the second and Jose Quintana the third. To get through last night’s game, Díaz threw another 39 pitches while again getting five outs and starter David Peterson also tossed an inning of relief.

None of the club’s front three of Severino, Manaea or Quintana would be available on regular rest for Saturday’s first game against Philadelphia. Megill would be an option to take some bulk innings, but he was left off the Wild Card roster since he wasn’t going to be available for those contests. If both Senga and Megill are to be added, the Mets would have to open two spots by leaving off a couple of guys that were present of the Wild Card round. Peterson could perhaps be another option for bulk innings, as he tossed seven innings as recently as September 29.

The full roster decisions don’t have to be publicly announced until Saturday morning. Senga is on the 60-day IL and will need to be added back onto the 40-man roster, but the Mets could easily open a spot by transferring Paul Blackburn or Dedniel Núñez onto the 60-day IL. The Phillies have announced that Zack Wheeler will start game one, followed by Cristopher Sánchez in game two.

Joe Musgrove To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Padres right-hander Joe Musgrove has suffered damage to the ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow and will undergo Tommy John surgery, per general manager A.J. Preller. Alden González of ESPN was among those to relay the announcement on X. The club hasn’t provided a timeline but Musgrove is sure to miss the entire 2025 season, given that recovery from Tommy John surgery generally takes 14 months or longer.

The news isn’t totally surprising, as Musgrove has been battling elbow issues all year, but it’s still rough for the righty and the club. By the end of May he was already on the injured list for the second time this year, both of those stints due to right elbow inflammation. In early June, it was reported that he had a bone spur in that elbow, which eventually kept him out of action until August.

He had struggled earlier in the season but finished strong. By the time of that second IL stint, he had made ten starts but with a 5.66 earned run average in that time. After returning in August, he posted a 2.15 ERA in seven starts down the stretch. He struck out 29.1% of opponents and walked 4.1% in that stretch run.

It seemed he was in strong form and set to be a key part of the club’s postseason staff. After Michael King shoved in the first game of the club’s Wild Card series against Atlanta, Musgrove was given the ball for the second contest. He struck out four opponents without issuing a walk through 3 2/3 innings but then departed the game with members of the training staff, having thrown just 44 pitches. The Friars later announced his issue as elbow tightness.

The Padres managed to win that game and move on to face the Dodgers in the Division Series, but manager Mike Shildt announced earlier today that Musgrove wouldn’t be appearing in the series. Shildt stopped short of making any declarations beyond that, but it’s now clear that Musgrove’s injury will impact far more than just the NLDS.

In the short term, the Padres will try to navigate the postseason without Musgrove. They have King, Dylan Cease and Yu Darvish as their best rotation options, with Martín Pérez and Matt Waldron also possibilities to contribute.

They will also have to get through the entire 2025 season without Musgrove, which should make starting pitching an offseason priority again. Darvish is still under contract while both King and Cease can be retained via arbitration for one more season before they are slated to reach free agency after 2025. Pérez is an impending free agent but Waldron is still in his pre-arbitration years.

Cease, King, Darvish and Waldron is a decent foursome but the club will presumably look to bolster that group. A lack of starting pitching depth was a notable storyline going into last winter, which prompted the club to target that in the Juan Soto trade. When they flipped Soto to the Yankees, they brought back King, Jhony Brito, Randy Vásquez and Drew Thorpe, with Thorpe later flipped to the White Sox as part of the deal to get Cease.

Brito was mostly used in relief this year. Vásquez made 20 starts but with a 4.87 ERA and tepid 14.4% strikeout rate. He also struggled badly in the minors, posting an 8.21 ERA in Triple-A. Perhaps someone like Adrián Morejón could be stretched out after his solid year in the bullpen, but there would be risk with his notable injury history.

Budgetary concerns were a notable factor for the Padres last winter as well. The club’s streaming deal with Diamond Sports Group had collapsed in 2023, forcing MLB to take over the broadcast as the club received less revenue in that department. That led to the Padres dealing Soto and ducking under the competitive balance tax.

RosterResource pegs San Diego’s 2025 CBT number at $184MM, well south of next year’s $241MM base threshold. However, that number doesn’t account for contracts for arbitration-eligible players. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects San Diego’s eight-player class for a total of $46.7MM. A few non-tenders could drop that number but most of it is going to core players like King, Cease and Luis Arráez, so the Padres are probably more accurately slated to be in the $230MM range before making any offseason moves.

Preller will have to address the departures of impending free agents like Ha-Seong Kim, Jurickson Profar, Donovan Solano and Kyle Higashioka. If the budget is tight again, he might have to get creative in the winter, which wouldn’t be unusual for him. He is one of baseball’s most active decision makers and is seemingly always involved in all free agent and trade talks. With this news, he will have one more item on his to-do list. Musgrove is under contract through 2027 and is making $20MM annually as part of the five-year, $100MM extension he and the club signed in 2022.

Rays Acquire Ty Cummings From Mariners To Complete Randy Arozarena Trade

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The Rays have acquired right-hander Ty Cummings from the Mariners as the player to be named later in the July trade that send outfielder Randy Arozarena to Seattle, per announcements from both clubs. The righty wasn’t on Seattle’s 40-man roster and won’t need to be added to Tampa’s.

The Mariners were leading the American League West for much of the first half of 2024 but were fading in the summer as their offense disappeared. They attempted to revive their lineup at the deadline by acquiring Justin Turner from the Blue Jays and Arozarena from the Rays. In the deal with Tampa, the M’s parted with prospects Aidan Smith, Brody Hopkins and a player to be named later, who has now been revealed as Cummings.

Both Turner and Arozarena hit well for the M’s but the club still fell shy of the postseason. They still have a chance to recoup some value on the Arozarena deal going forward as he can be retained for two more seasons. He made $8.1MM in 2024 and will be due two more raises in the forthcoming campaigns. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a salary of $11.7MM in 2025.

Cummings, 23 next month, was selected by the Mariners in the seventh round of the 2023 draft. Taken out of Campbell University in Buies Creek, North Carolina, he signed for a $225K bonus. He made his professional debut this year, making 25 starts for High-A Everett. In his 116 2/3 innings for the AquaSox, he allowed 4.17 earned runs per nine. He struck out 24.7% of batters faced, walked 9.2% of them and got opponents to hit the ball on the ground at a 50.3% clip.

Back in July, Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs published his list of the top 34 prospects in the Mariners’ system. Cummings wasn’t one of those 34 but got an honorable mention as Longenhagen described him as a potential depth starter.

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