The Padres and right-hander Joe Musgrove have finalized a five-year, $100MM extension, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter links). The deal — which pays even $20MM salaries each year between 2023-27 — contains a full no-trade clause for the next four seasons, as well as limited no-trade protection for 2027. Heyman reported last Friday the parties were close on a deal at those terms. Musgrove, a client of Full Circle Sports Management, had been set to hit free agency at the end of the year.
Musgrove and the Friars have spent months kicking extension terms around, with progress seemingly ratcheting up around the All-Star Break. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported over the Break there was a belief on both sides a deal could get done before the start of the season’s unofficial second half. That obviously didn’t come to pass, but that evidently didn’t deter or meaningfully set back talks.
The five-year, $100MM price point registers as a bit of a surprise, as the first-time All-Star quite likely could’ve topped those numbers by a fair amount on the open market. Musgrove, however, is a San Diego-area native who has been open about his desire to remain with his hometown club. It’s certainly understandable if the opportunity at a nine-figure payday to remain in a place he’s comfortable was something he decided not to pass up, particularly with the strong no-trade protection.
Musgrove’s contract nevertheless checks in below those landed by a couple of the top starters on last year’s market, Kevin Gausman and Robbie Ray. Gausman received a five-year, $110MM deal from the Blue Jays. Ray signed with the Mariners for five years and $115MM in a deal that also included an opt-out opportunity following the 2024 season. Aside from the record-setting three-year deal for Max Scherzer, the Gausman and Ray contracts represented the top commitments to free agent starters last offseason.
One could argue that Musgrove is a better long-term bet than either hurler. Like Ray, he’ll begin his new deal with his age-30 season; Gausman’s contract started at age 31. The San Diego righty carries a career-low 2.65 ERA through 115 1/3 innings this season, a bit below the respective 2.81 and 2.84 marks posted by Gausman and Ray last year. Both Gausman and Ray missed bats at a better clip than Musgrove has, but the latter has a slightly better walk rate than the 2021 free agents.
Musgrove’s platform season is shaping up to be similar to those of Gausman and Ray, and Musgrove may have a slightly better long-term track record. Ray had an awful year during the shortened 2020 campaign in which he posted a 6.62 ERA. He’d shown top-of-the-rotation flashes earlier in his career, but his control and home run rates fluctuated a fair amount. Gausman had a very strong shortened season, but he’d struggled during the previous full campaign. Musgrove has a sub-4.00 ERA in each of his past three years, with a cumulative 3.08 figure through 58 starts since the beginning of 2020.
In that context, the extension looks like a strong investment for the Friars. That’s particularly true given the Padres’ long-term rotation uncertainty. San Diego could lose both Sean Manaea and Mike Clevinger to free agency this winter. Blake Snell and Yu Darvish are only under contract for a season and a half, and Nick Martinez can opt out of his deal after any of the next three years. MacKenzie Gore is the only rotation building block who’s certain to be around two seasons from now, and the Friars can build a long-term starting staff around the young southpaw and Musgrove.
Musgrove’s contract comes with a matching $20MM luxury tax number, which will take effect beginning next season. The Friars exceeded the CBT threshold for the first time in franchise history last year, and they could well do so again in 2022. According to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, San Diego’s 2023 payroll now sits around $130MM before accounting for arbitration salaries. The Padres luxury tax number is estimated north of $162MM, while next season’s base tax threshold checks in at $233MM.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
That’s a steal
Would seem so, unless there are opt-outs.
Even so, if it’s 1yr, 30Mil with an opt out after year one, that is a solid price for a NL Cy Young contender. It’s clear that he wants to pitch for his hometown team and he’s doing them a huge favor taking a 20% or more discount to stay there. I wonder if there’s a San Diego fan on this planet that isn’t ecstatic about this deal.
As a Giants fan, this is not great news. However as a fan in general, excellent for the Friars, and cool for Joe to get to stay at “home” and pitch where he’s comfortable. Win-win!
Well said. As a Padres/Giants fan (I’m finding that it’s possible to be both and my family is split too), I think we bond in unity to bring down the Dodgers!
I mean he clearly loves San Diego it’s definitely a huge win for the Padres though
Awesome I love watching Joe pitch
We love Joe. I now have to get tickets to his bobblehead night.
August 18th! (First 35k in the door get one) Let’s go Pads, congrats No-no Joe Joe!!
Complete steal. With the lack of F/A pitching in the off-season he could’ve gotten a lot more.
Steal for the Padres
Good for him. Really never thought he’d be more than a good number 3 or a shut down reliever. Good guy, good pitcher, and a great deal for San Diego.
Yes great news ,great deal. Finally
Excited to see him take ~5-7m less for that extra year to stay with a contender. both sides win. Probably an opt out after year 2 or 3
Great deal for the Padres. They are also set for 2023 with Musgrove, Darvish, Snell, Martinez, and Gore as SP rotation. I could see this does however open up Gore to be traded for Juan Soto along with Abrams.
How can they afford Soto? Machado 30, Tatis 30, Musgrove 20. Soto 40? There’s no $ left?
Hosmer Myers Clevinger Snell Darvish etc are off books soon. Don’t give Soto a contract. Machado opts out. Lots of $ available.
I would wait until the offseason, but I would like to see if they could extend Darvish as well. I wonder if he would take a 2 yr $25 mill extension total (.$12.5 mill/yr). He’s getting old but he has been the clear no 2 since joining that Padres SP rotation.
Martinez opt out even more $
Extending Musgrove is a strong indicator of San Diego’s ability to contend over the next few years. What else could help them close the gap with the Dodgers?
Get a 3 billion tv deal.
Hometown discount. What a bargain.
Steal for sure but seems as both player and organization are happy and that’s all that matters. Wish there were more of these types of deals made.
Congrats to Musgrove and Padres!! Very happy to see the deal done.
No No Joe says Hello…. Great day for Padres!
Padres had to do this to compete beyond this year. Mustgrove is beloved in san diego. This is a huge win for the Padres and the fans.
Now let’s see what the next 24 hours have in store.
Is there anyone that doesn’t like him? He was liked in Houston, too.
SD gets a nice hometown discount and Musgrove stays close to home. Great deal for both sides.
This could have gone the other way, tip of the hat to the Padres for taking care of their stars.
Very interesting that his no-trade protection is downgraded after 2026 even though he will achieve 10-and-5 rights about 2 months before the 2026 season ends.
I do think Joe could have done better $ wise but I guess all the talk about him wanting to stay in San Diego wasn’t hot air and because he got the NTC he actually DOES get to stay in San Diego. Not like Seth Smith, Yangervis Solarte or Brad Hand.
Win/win with a hometown discount included! I guess they do still exist haha! Fun day for us fans, be good LH!
Wow, good for the Padres, I guess. If I were him, I would be miffed they wouldn’t offer to match the deals for Gausman / Ray. I understand he wants to stay home, but this strikes me as a missed opportunity to call San Diego’s bluff. As his hometown team, they should show him more respect than that.
Crazy world where a 9 figure contract isn’t seen as respect…
I figured that was coming lol. The blue collar worker in me agrees with you, but relatively speaking, he cost himself $10-20 million easily. IMO he’s a safer bet than either of those other guys were this past offseason. It’s such an easy comp (he compared to Gausman and Ray that is) that I’m offended on his behalf that they didn’t match the other 2 deals. Just my reaction. Enjoy watching your boy. It’s a nice feeling when player wants a team.
Some great points in there! If you gave me the 3 way choice of Ray, Gausy or Joe then I’m picking Joe everytime, contracts being a moot point but even more favorable if included. Your reactions are valid but we’re just stoked to see this all work out. Always a great story when a hometown kid makes it big on his favorite team! Cheers
A world where Joe is simply worth more than that
Joe’s happy, the Pads are happy, fans are happy… therefore, I’m happy for all involved. “Worth more” is useless debate fodder for pundits in chat forums that aren’t affected in any way, shape or form.
The point is a 9 figure contract can absolutely be seen as “disrespect” if it is clearly for less than the player is worth. Evidently Joe was willing to take a discount to stay in San Diego. And as I said before, he got a NTC so there’s no risk of him ending up in a Seth Smith/Brad Hand situation where he takes a team friendly extension only to be traded to a team he doesn’t want to play for less than a year later.
I know what you mean, but seriously, if anybody involved even sniffed an ounce of disrespect (here) then no deal would have been consumated. It’s a non-factor for all involved parties so now it’s just in the ether as an internet talking point (with no relevance.) Great extension all around; happy for the fans, the Pads and finally Joe and his NTC! Cheers gents
Padres won this deal BIG time. Joe should’ve gotten something in the 6-7 year range at $150-$185 easily. I get the San Diego discount but wondering if this is his deal with a big time agent like Boras, CAA, etc. Left a ton of money on the table it seems.
Padres won this deal BIG time. Joe should’ve gotten something in the 6-7 year range at $150-$185 easily. I get the San Diego discount but wondering if this is his deal with a big time agent like Boras, CAA, etc. Left a ton of money on the table it seems, but maybe the agents wanted that bag before Joe realized he could do better.