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Twins Release Lucas Duda

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The Twins have released first baseman Lucas Duda, as Dan Hayes of The Athletic was among those to report (Twitter link). The move comes in advance of the opt-out clause his contract provided on Saturday.

Duda, 33, has long been quite a productive MLB hitter, though he hit a wall late in the 2017 season and hasn’t recovered since. He’ll head back out onto an unforgiving free agent market for defensively limited sluggers.

While he hasn’t hit anywhere near his prior levels of late, Duda has remained an approximately league-average bat. That’s not enough, clearly, for a player who’s likely to be viewed at most as a platoon first baseman. But there’s still some reason to hope that he can be a useful member of the right roster.

Brewers Release Josh Tomlin

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The Brewers announced today that they have released right-hander Josh Tomlin. He had been in camp as a non-roster invitee after signing a minors deal but opted out of his deal, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports (via Twitter).

That news gives some clarity to the organization’s rotation picture, though Tomlin had a tough path to a big-league job regardless. With so many potential candidates for the rotation, and Jimmy Nelson readying for an early-season return, the Milwaukee organization was obviously not willing to commit a 40-man roster spot to Tomlin.

Tomlin evidently did not show enough in camp to force the Brewers’ hand. He has allowed eight earned runs with nine strikeouts and two walks in his 15 spring innings. Since the start of the 2016 season, Tomlin has managed only a 4.93 ERA with 6.4 K/9 and 1.1 BB/9 in 385 1/3 innings.

Tomlin will surely look around to see if there’s a more attractive opportunity elsewhere. If not, it appears the Brewers would consider re-signing the command artist to work at Triple-A, Haudricourt also notes on Twitter.

Anthony Rendon On Contract Talks With Nationals

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The Nationals have held ongoing contract talks with third baseman Anthony Rendon, with optimism at times of reaching a long-term deal. But Rendon says he rejected an offer in late February (around the time that Nolan Arenado signed his new deal with the Rockies) and that talks have “kind of come to a halt lately,” as Todd Dybas of NBC Sports Washington reports.

It’s not known what the Nats dangled to Rendon when last the sides spoke in earnest. But the number “wasn’t to where we thought we should be,” per the 28-year-old.

While it seems that chatter hasn’t picked back up since, there’s still an opening to a possible deal. Rendon says that the Nationals told him “we’re going to continue to talk.” And it seems that he’s still open to working something out. But it’s now more clear than ever that Rendon will be demanding full market value for his future services and that he’s plenty willing instead to play out the 2019 season and hit the open market.

As Rendon put it: “If [an extension] happens, it happens, if it doesn’t it doesn’t.”

Even as the sides have batted around scenarios, other teams and players have lined up on deals. Several third-base price points have hit the books, in fact. It’s hard to draw much from the deal reached yesterday between the Astros and pre-arbitration infield Alex Bregman, but Manny Machado’s free-agent contract with the Padres (ten years, $300MM) and Nolan Arenado’s extension with the Rockies (seven years, $234MM) are plenty relevant.

While Rendon is older than both Machado and Arenado, he’s less than a year senior to the latter. Even if Rendon would need to take a shorter pact, the average annual values of those contracts — $30MM and $33.4MM, respectively — seem within reason for the long-time Nationals infielder. Both of his contemporaries are more visible players, to be sure, but Rendon has edged them both in fWAR over the past three seasons.

Prior indications were that Rendon sought a contract of the sort previously agreed to between Jose Altuve and the Astros (five years, $151MM). Whether that is in fact his asking price, and if so how close the Nats will come to reaching it, remains to be seen.

Mookie Betts Does Not Expect To Reach Extension With Red Sox

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In the midst of a run of extensions around the game — in particular, yesterday’s $360MM Mike Trout agreement — Red Sox star Mookie Betts faced another round of questions about his future in Boston from reporters including Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald (links to Twitter). While he again expressed that he’s fond of the organization, Betts left little doubt that he’s not moving off of his price point for his post-arbitration years.

Betts acknowledged having received prior offers from the Red Sox. To this point, they simply haven’t met his understandably lofty self-valuation. It was reported yesterday that the team dangled $200MM in advance of the 2018 season. That was a hefty offer under the circumstances, but Betts has little cause to regret turning it down. He went on to turn in a hugely productive season and take home American League MVP honors, setting himself up for a record-setting run through arbitration and untold riches thereafter.

When asked whether he expects to open the present season without a long-term deal, Betts responded:

“That’s exactly what I expect. Didn’t expect anything to happen until I’m a free agent.”

It certainly doesn’t sound as if there’s much cause for optimism for a deal to come together before Betts hits the open market after the 2020 season. While nothing can be ruled out, as the 26-year-old hasn’t indicated that he’s altogether opposed to listening to offers, he’ll evidently demand that the Red Sox put quite a bit more money on the table than they have to this point.

Betts offered another hint about his own views on his value and how he intends to pursue a contract that matches it. While he called some of the recent extensions “great deals” for the players involved, he also noted that “some of them could’ve gotten more.”

Royals Shift Ian Kennedy To Bullpen

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The Royals announced yesterday that they will utilize veteran right-hander Ian Kennedy as a reliever this year, as Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star was among those to report.

Kennedy, 34, says he’s up for the switch despite having made only a pair of prior relief appearances way back in 2008-09. In the intervening nine seasons, Kennedy has taken the ball to open 277 MLB contests.

Last year was the first season since 2009 in which Kennedy failed to make thirty starts. It also represented a confirmation of his struggles from the season prior. In total, over his past 273 2/3 innings, Kennedy has mustered only a 5.06 ERA with 7.8 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, and 1.8 HR/9.

Kennedy’s still throwing as hard as before and appears to be getting similar movement on his pitches, but the league has clearly figured him out. His swinging-strike rate has dwindled down to 8.2% and opposing hitters have made hard contact on about four in ten balls in play over the past two seasons.

Frankly, these developments aren’t altogether surprising for a hurler who hit the 2015-16 market as a highly durable but rarely dominant middle/back-of-the-rotation arm. Kennedy was an accomplished hurler and drew mid-3 ERA equivalency grades from xFIP and SIERA in the two seasons before he reached free agency. Still, he had long battled home run problems that led to inconsistent results despite generally excellent K/BB numbers.

Even in that very different market setting — several other pitchers secured very large deals that winter with less-than-dominant track records — Kennedy’s five-year, $70MM contract was surprising. As former MLBTR scribe Charlie Wilmoth put it, “the financial outlay of the deal looks rather generous even before considering the opt-out.” Entering the offseason, we had predicted four years and $52MM.

The Kansas City organization knew the risks, but understandably wanted maximize its chances of winning another World Series after capturing a crown in a magical 2015 season. Kennedy did manage nearly two hundred innings of 3.68 ERA ball in the first year of his deal, but the peripherals told a different story.

Now, the Royals are paying what’s left of the tab for doubling down on a historic contention window. Kennedy accounts for two hefty line items: $16.5MM salaries in 2019 and 2020.

Looking at the present roster, bumping Kennedy will somewhat ironically open the door for Homer Bailey to join the starting staff. The oft-injured hurler is still due $23MM this year along with a $5MM buyout on what was once a 2020 option. Bailey was cut loose by the Dodgers entering the final year of the big extension that he signed with the Reds and which was shipped to Los Angeles this winter. The K.C. org will owe him only the MLB minimum.

Bailey will get a shot at redemption in Kansas City. Kennedy, meanwhile, will try to carve out a second act as a reliever while remaining available as a depth option should a rotation need arise.

Michael Fulmer To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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TODAY: Fulmer will indeed undergo the procedure, he tells reporters including Evan Woodberry of MLive.com (via Twitter).

YESTERDAY: Tigers righty Michael Fulmer has received a recommendation that he undergo Tommy John surgery, Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press reports on Twitter. He’d stand to miss the entire 2019 season and in all likelihood a portion of the 2020 campaign as well.

Fulmer’s medical status has been a bit of a mystery of late, but this news comes as a surprise. He had been shut down recently, purportedly to work on mechanical issues tied to his recovery from last season’s knee surgery, but obviously was dealing with something else entirely. Fulmer had shown a worrying loss of velocity this spring after turning in a subpar, injury-marred 2018 campaign.

It’s not yet certain that Fulmer will go under the knife, but that seems to be far and away the likeliest outcome. Per the Tigers, both a team doctor and noted surgeon Dr. James Andrews have already recommended that Fulmer receive a full replacement of his ulnar collateral ligament.

This is hardly the news anyone wanted for Fulmer, who reached his 26th birthday just days ago. Fortunately for the righty, he already agreed to a $2.8MM salary for the coming season. On the bright side for the club, they won the arbitration hearing and thus avoided a larger payout.

In all likelihood, the Tigers will end up paying Fulmer that $2.8MM both this season and next, while hoping he’ll be able to contribute by the middle of the 2020 campaign. Fulmer is controllable in 2021 and 2022 as well. His earning power in those years will depend upon what he’s able to do in ’20; it’ll unquestionably be diminished by the lengthy absence.

The Detroit organization has thus far centered its rebuilding effort on young pitching, with a series of interesting arms moving up through the ranks. It seemed through his first two seasons in the majors that Fulmer might be a veteran anchor for the next great Tigers staff — or, instead, a big trade chip who’d reel in loads of young talent.

That outlook already changed last year, as Fulmer struggled to a 4.69 ERA in 132 1/3 innings. During his excellent debut campaign and solid follow-up effort, Fulmer’s unexciting strikeout numbers were explained away by some. The line was that his overpowering arsenal and ability to induce weak contact made it unnecessary for Fulmer to rack of Ks. The narrative shifted over the course of the 2018 season. Even as hard contact rose (39.5%), his groundball rate (44.2%) and home run suppression (1.29 per nine innings, 14.5% HR/FB rate) dove despite steady 96 mph velocity readings on his fastball.

Perhaps Fulmer would have found his way back to being a high-quality starter had he not encountered knee issues that ultimately resulted in a meniscus procedure. The connection between that joint, his reduced velo this spring, and his problematic elbow isn’t completely clear, but it certainly seems plausible that all are interrelated. He’ll now have a lengthy absence to work through the varying health issues. If all goes well, Fulmer could return to be a quality hurler once more.

Yankees Sign Gio Gonzalez

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The Yankees have bolstered their pitching depth in a substantial way, adding veteran left-hander Gio Gonzalez. General manager Brian Cashman announced to reporters Tuesday that Gonzalez has passed his physical and reported to camp (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch). Rather stunningly, the contract is a minor league deal that reportedly comes with a $3MM base salary in the Majors and pays Gonzalez an additional $300K per start (topping out at $12MM). He can also opt out of the contract on April 20.

Gio Gonzalez } Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

This outcome was hard to foresee when the market opened. While Gonzalez hardly seemed likely to break the bank, he’s an accomplished, still-useful, exceptionally durable starter. MLBTR graded him the 27th-best free agent available and predicted a two-year, $24MM contract.

As it turns out, many mid-level free-agent starters have failed to land that second promised year. And Gonzalez will still need to earn his way onto the MLB roster. Even if he makes it, he’ll be playing on a base rate of pay that lags a long list of other rotation pieces that signed this winter.

Gonzalez, 33, was long a highly valuable starter with the Athletics and Nationals. While he was often chided for inconsistency on a start-by-start basis, he was one of the steadiest hurlers in the majors in the aggregate for a lengthy span. Between 2010 and 2017, Gonzalez threw over 1,500 innings of 3.41 ERA ball, only once failing to make thirty starts in a season.

As recently as 2017, Gonzalez was capable of a sub-3.00 ERA, 200+ inning campaign. Even then, his peripherals reflected a decline in his stuff. Over the past two seasons, Gonzalez’s fastball has sat just over the 90 mph line. He still generated a 9.5% swinging-strike rate last year, right at his career average, but surrendered more hard contact and more home runs than he did in his prime.

Despite the downturn, Gonzalez remained a sturdy MLB hurler in 2018. He contributed 171 frames and ended with a 4.21 ERA. Gonzalez struggled in two postseason outings but provided the Brewers with five useful starts down the stretch after a late-season trade.

While his earning upside was always going to be limited by his age and reduced repertoire, it’s hard to fathom this outcome. It’s certainly possible that other teams offered guaranteed deals with less overall earning capacity. Even that’s unclear at this point, though.

The Yankees, it seems, don’t necessarily even plan to utilize Gonzalez to fill in while Luis Severino works back from his injury issues. Per the New York Post’s Joel Sherman (Twitter links), the club seems inclined to rely upon a trio of young hurlers — Luis Cessa, Domingo German, Jonathan Loaisiga — before turning to Gonzalez. That could certainly change before the opt-out date. But it’s notable that the deeply established southpaw will evidently be working just to obtain an MLB opportunity, particularly with so many teams preparing to rely upon untested pitchers at the outset of the season.

It also remains to be seen just when Gonzalez will even be ready to join the Yankees’ rotation. Manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday that Gonzalez made 80 pitches in a simulated game just yesterday and could appear in the Yankees’ Grapefruit League game on March 23 (Twitter link via Hoch). He still isn’t likely to be ready for the season opener, though, which point to an early April debut, at the earliest.

Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported the sides were close to a deal (via Twitter). Sherman reported that it was a minor league pact (Twitter link), while The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal added financial details (via Twitter). Heyman added further details regarding the contract’s heavy slate of incentives (via Twitter).

Details On Prior Red Sox Attempts At Extending Mookie Betts

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As part of the day’s chatter surrounding Mike Trout’s new deal with the Angels, Joel Sherman of the New York Post took a look back at some of the Red Sox’ attempts to hammer out a contract with their own star outfielder. Mookie Betts has rebuffed several prior efforts from the Boston organization, it seems.

In particular, per Sherman, Betts said no to an eye-popping offer after the 2017 campaign. The proposal was worth $200MM over eight years for Betts, who was then heading into his first season of arbitration eligibility on the heels of a good but not great season. Assuming that there was fully $200MM in guaranteed money involved, that would have easily set a new high-water mark for a first-time arb-eligible player, topping Buster Posey’s $159MM contract (as a Super Two) and Freddie Freeman’s $135MM deal (3+ service class).

Betts instead preferred to take the arbitration route, defeating the club in a hearing and earning a $10.5MM salary as a first-year arb player. After putting up a monster 2018 season and taking home MVP honors, he agreed to a cool $20MM salary for 2019 — his second (and second-to-last) season of arb eligibility.

With over $30MM in career earnings already in his pocket, and Trout no longer looming as a co-star in the 2020-21 free agent market, the 26-year-old Betts could ultimately command a record-setting deal of his own. One wonders whether the Sox would have to beat the Trout deal (ten years, $360MM in new money) to keep Betts from testing free agency — if he’s willing even to consider new offers before hitting the open market.

Minor-League Labor Changes Under Consideration

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Major League Baseball is engaged in talks that could lead to significant changes to the labor situation of minor-league ballplayers, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports. Initial talks have been held with the National Association of Professional Baseball Leagues, with “significant increase in salaries, a higher standard of living conditions and better transportation” all on the table.

It’s important to bear in mind that — so far as is apparent from the report — this is a negotiation about rather than with labor. Passan characterizes the initial discussions as a “collective-bargaining session,” though it’s not clear that reflects the situation. The NAPBL is the governing body of Minor League Baseball. It does not, however, represent minor-league players themselves. Neither is it clear whether the MLB Players Association is involve at this stage.

The office of commissioner Rob Manfred seems to be the driving force behind these discussions. While the league successfully secured federal protection for its low-wage approach to the pre-MLB labor force, that also served to boost the visibility of a longstanding issue that is the subject of still-pending litigation. The Blue Jays recently instituted an increased pay scale for their minor-leaguers, which has further nudged things along, and Passan says there’s a recognition at the ownership level that working-condition improvements are warranted.

Details on prospective changes are unknown and still must be negotiated. The actual agreement up for discussion is the MLB-NAPBL accord — a deal that expires in 2020. It had been extended back in 2011, with the sides indicating that the status quo was working to no small amount of mutual satisfaction. That’s no longer the case, at least from the MLB perspective, though that’s not to say that there’s any acrimony in the relationship. The rub of the matter may be that, as Passan puts it, “the expectation is that minor league affiliates would pick up at least some of the burden of the various improvements.” Apart from the salary question, the sides will need to agree upon and sort out the burden of potential workplace and travel improvements.

It remains to be seen what course these talks will take and to what extent they’ll meaningfully improve the lot of minor-league ballplayers.

Yohander Mendez Diagnosed With UCL Sprain

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Rangers lefty Yohander Mendez has been diagnosed with a grade one sprain of the ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching arm, as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. He’s expected to miss approximately half of the coming campaign.

Though Mendez avoided the worst-case outcome of Tommy John surgery, he’ll still need to take a slow path back to competitive pitching. Per Grant, the current plan is for a six-week rest period followed by a full ramp-up back to top speed.

If all goes to plan, the 24-year-old southpaw will miss about ten weeks of the coming season (along with the final two weeks of camp). With a potential mid-June return, there’s still every chance that Mendez will throw significant innings in 2019. It’s likely he’ll open up back at Triple-A once his rehab assignment is up, though it’d be foolish to attempt to predict what the Texas pitching staff will look like by the middle of the summer.

Mendez cracked the majors in his age-21 campaign and has seen action in each of the past three seasons. The results have not been promising. Through 43 big-league innings, Mendez has allowed thirty earned runs on 46 hits with 25 strikeouts against 20 walks. He also coughed up 64 earned in 122 1/3 minor-league frames last year.

The Rangers will hope that they can otherwise emerge from camp without dings to a pitching unit that has quite a few health risks. Mendez will presumably be a candidate for a 60-day injured list placement, which would open up a 40-man roster spot to utilize on any late-spring claims or other roster decisions.

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