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Latest On Brandon Morrow’s Rehab Timeline

By Jeff Todd | March 4, 2019 at 9:45pm CDT

It has been known for some time that Cubs closer Brandon Morrow would likely not be ready for the start of the season, but his precise timeline has been tough to guess. As MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian was among those to tweet, there’s now a clear target date for Morrow to throw his first pen session: March 25th.

Morrow dealt with a biceps injury last season and underwent offseason surgery on his elbow. The current rehab plan seems to be for Morrow to continue building up strength and testing his powerful right arm over the next several weeks. So long as he tolerates further increases in his long-toss program, he’ll get back on the bump near the end of the month.

Even if Morrow toes the rubber on the 25th, it’ll still leave several steps left before he’s ready for competitive action. From that point, he’d need to regain the feel for his arsenal, step in against live hitters, and progress to some sort of game-like action before potentially undertaking a rehab assignment in lieu of the Spring Training contests he’ll have missed.

The broader timeline remains foggy and obviously depends quite a bit on how Morrow comes through each forthcoming test. His bullpen mates reported to camp on February 13th; by that measure, at least, he’ll be something like five or six weeks behind schedule. Of course, Morrow has been ramping up for duty in other ways and has previously indicated he anticipates missing about a month of action.

It remains to be seen how quickly Morrow will move once he nears readiness. By that point, the Cubs will already have quite a bit more information than they do now about their immediate roster needs. Regardless, the club will surely weigh heavily the knowledge of Morrow’s long and short-term health history.

This time last year, Morrow was ramping up for a highly successful first half of the 2018 season — his first on a two-year, $21MM contract that brought him to Chicago. That he was in position to sign that deal was in itself quite notable, given that Morrow had only just revived his injury-wracked career. After 30 2/3 innings of 1.47 ERA pitching, though, Morrow hit the DL with what seemed like a minor issue. He never made it back, with the team shutting him down in mid-September after hope of a late-season return faded.

Entering the winter, the Cubs made clear they would keep Morrow penciled in as their primary closer. But his outlook was downgraded again when he ended up requiring an elbow debridement procedure in early November. With little free payroll to allocate in free agency, the Cubs never pursued a true replacement, though they did add a hurler who has late-inning experience. Brad Brach joins Pedro Strop, Steve Cishek, and Brandon Kintzler as Chicago relievers with at least twenty MLB saves.

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Chicago Cubs Brandon Morrow

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Mets Sign Carlos Gomez

By Jeff Todd | March 2, 2019 at 1:27pm CDT

Saturday, 1:25 PM: The deal is now official, per Mike Puma of the New York Post.

Friday, 11:48 AM:The Mets have reportedly struck a deal with free agent outfielder Carlos Gomez. The @BigDaveRants account first tweeted the news, which has been confirmed since by several reports. It’s said to be a minor-league pact, pending a physical.

Memorably, Gomez nearly became a member of the Mets in the summer of 2015. At the time, he was a star center fielder and the New York club was readying for a stretch run at the postseason. The deal was all but done before things fell apart.

The undoing of that swap created huge ripples still being felt. Gomez ended up being swapped instead to the Astros in a deal that worked out terribly for Houston but didn’t prevent the club from finding its own successes. That trade helped spur the Brewers’ recent resurgence.

Meanwhile, the Mets hung on to Zack Wheeler, who’ll now be a key member of the rotation after his own 2018 renaissance. The other piece of that trade-that-wasn’t,  Wilmer Flores, provided one of the trade deadline’s indelible moments when he shed some tears on the field following the reporting of the deal. (He was non-tendered this fall and landed with the Diamondbacks.)

Looking to the present, the deal makes for a somewhat interesting match. Gomez will obviously need to earn his way onto the roster after a forgettable 2018 season for the Rays, but he had a productive stop with the Rangers before that and only just turned 33 years old.

The Mets already have a host of left-handed-hitting outfielders, but are less certain from the right side. Gomez could push Juan Lagares and Keon Broxton in camp. While those younger options have much better gloves, Gomez is the most accomplished hitter of the bunch — though Broxton has been a similarly productive offensive performer (despite worrying strikeout numbers) over the past three seasons. It could be that Gomez will end up serving mostly as a depth piece while auditioning for other teams, but there’s about a month left in camp and circumstances can always change.

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New York Mets Transactions Carlos Gomez

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Phillies Sign Bryce Harper

By Jeff Todd | March 1, 2019 at 10:29pm CDT

TODAY: The deal is official, as per a simple tweet from the Phillies’ Twitter feed stating “We got him.”

THURSDAY, 7:23pm: Harper will receive a $10MM salary and a $20MM signing bonus for the upcoming season, tweets Heyman. He’ll then be paid $26MM annually from 2020-28 and $22MM annually from 2029-31.

1:51pm: The Phillies and star outfielder Bryce Harper have made quite the commitment to one another, according to reports. The sides have agreed in principle to a 13-year, $330MM deal that puts Harper in Philadelphia through his age-38 season.

Unlike virtually all recent mega-contracts, this one comes without caveats. Harper gets full no-trade rights and does not possess any opt-out opportunities. The contract won’t come with deferrals, though it is said to have a front-loaded structure.

The end to Harper’s drawn-out free agency seemed to come suddenly. It may be that the Phillies finally met his asking price after late-breaking interest from the Dodgers and Giants.

When the dust settled, Harper had landed the biggest contract in MLB history. He just tops the $325MM guarantee the Marlins gave Giancarlo Stanton over a 13-year term, though it’s important to note that deal came in an extension scenario.

In taking the largest overall contract, Harper did make a clear sacrifice on average annual value. He’ll earn just over $25MM per season annually, well under the $30MM average commanded recently by Manny Machado in his deal with the Padres and $33.4MM promised in the seven new seasons covered by Nolan Arenado’s extension with the Rockies.

That reduced annual value won’t likely mean much in the way of sacrificed earning power, as it covers only three late-career seasons. It does help the Phillies to reduce the annual competitive balance tax hit from the signing, which could assist the organization as it looks to maintain competitiveness over a long marriage with its new star.

Beyond the market impact, this move sets the stage for a fascinating season (and beyond) in the National League East. The Phillies, Nationals, and Mets have all made win-now moves in hopes of dethroning a Braves team that is still full of young talent.

Harper’s move up the interstate from D.C. brings an end to a productive tenure with the Nats, reversing the career arc of recently retired former teammate Jayson Werth on a much grander scale. Harper’s exciting debut campaign was punctuated by a memorable run-in with the Phillies and then-ace Cole Hamels, the club that the Nationals were then seeking to eclipse as the premier outfit in the division.

The Washington organization did make a run at keeping Harper, but wasn’t able to work things out. Some might say that he’d have been better off taking the ten-year, $300MM offer that was reportedly put on the table. Reports have made clear that a roughly a third of that money would have been deferred, greatly driving down its true value.

Rather than take a deferred contract, Harper searched for and found the type of fully guaranteed, non-deferred deal he sought with the Philadelphia organization. The move punctuates an offseason that lived up to expectations for the Phillies’ faithful. The club already added the game’s best catcher in J.T. Realmuto, acquired a strong shortstop in Jean Segura, and added veterans including Andrew McCutchen and David Robertson. It’s imaginable that there’s more still to come, though perhaps the initial focus will be on making a roster-clearing move to accommodate the newest addition.

Investing in Harper gives the Phillies the game’s most recognizable player. He’s also quite a good one, even if he hasn’t shown that he can consistently produce at the otherworldly levels he did in a magical 2015 season. Harper’s ups and downs have come with a very lofty mean, of course — he’s a .279/.388/.512 career hitter with 184 home runs in nearly four thousand career plate appearances — though the aggregate remains every so slightly disappointing given his nearly unmatched talent level. Defensive questions arose last year, as Harper graded quite poorly. That was cause for concern in some quarters, though there’s also reason to believe that he can turn things around.

We at MLBTR would be remiss not to acknowledge that the out-on-a-limb estimation we put forth on Harper early in the offseason — a 14-year pact worth $420MM — ultimately proved to be a dramatic overreach. At the time of our initial top 50 rankings, we were of the belief that because Harper and Machado were non-traditional free agents (i.e. legitimate superstars who’d not yet played their age-26 seasons), traditional contractual structures wouldn’t apply to them. With so much talk in the preceding offseason about the teams who bend over backward to dip below the luxury tax in advance of this offseason’s crop of free agents, our team fully anticipated a widespread level of interest that simply never came to fruition.

Rather, with only three to four serious bidders for most of the winter, Harper and Boras had to claw to reach a point at which we expected the bidding to begin. The end result — a significantly lengthier term with the intent of tamping down the average annual value/luxury tax hit — was, as noted at the time, a highly plausible outcome, though securing a record-setting guarantee required lowering the AAV further than our forecast.

Predictions aside, Harper’s deal sets a new high-water mark on which premier players of the future will set their sights when seeking open-market contracts or, at least, extensions on the cusp of free agency. One can imagine, to varying extents, the Harper guarantee at least serving as a talking point when Mike Trout and Mookie Betts, both controlled through the 2020 season, begin to take an earnest look at their next contracts. Of course, they’d reach free agency at three and two years older than Harper was this winter, respectively, so it’s far from a direct comparison. But, as the Stanton contract did in this instance, the Harper contract will now serve as a barometer that agents and superstar players alike will aim to topple — even if by only a narrow measure.

Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link) first reported the deal. Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (Twitter links) and Jim Bowden of The Athletic (Twitter link) had the key terms, with Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post (Twitter link) and MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez (via Twitter) adding details.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Newsstand Philadelphia Phillies Transactions Bryce Harper

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Salvador Perez Diagnosed With UCL Damage

By Jeff Todd | March 1, 2019 at 6:21pm CDT

6:21PM: Tommy John surgery has indeed been recommended for Perez, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets.  Perez is expected to undergo the surgery next week.  He first may meet Dr. ElAttrache for final confirmation, as Royals manager Ned Yost and trainer Nick Kenney told MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan (Twitter links) and other reporters that Perez will head to Los Angeles for the examination on Wednesday.  Yost and Kenney both stopped short of referring to Perez’s injury as any sort of a tear, instead describing it simply as ligament damage.  Perez was shut down for four weeks earlier this offseason, Yost and Kenny said, after the catcher experienced a flexor strain during offseason training.

1:36PM: Royals catcher Salvador Perez has been diagnosed with damage to the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, the team announced. Perez is headed for a second opinion from Dr. Neal ElAttrache.

The ultimate prognosis is not yet known, clearly, but the signs are not promising. In the best case scenario, the workhorse backstop is likely to miss a decent stretch for rest and rehab. If the ligament is damaged enough to require surgery, his 2019 season could be at risk.

Beyond Perez, the Royals have rather slim pickings behind the dish. Cam Gallagher and Meibrys Viloria are the only other two backstops on the 40-man roster — and the only two that have ever seen MLB action.  In what could be a sign that the Royals are preparing for the worst with Perez’s diagnosis, the team has already been in touch with veteran free agent Martin Maldonado, as per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter).

Kansas City will presumably consider all free agent options both now and perhaps closer to the end of Spring Training, when more catchers will be released from (or opt out of) their minor league contracts if they don’t make their current rosters.  The Royals will surely also consider the trade market.  The Red Sox stand out as the most obvious potential trade partner in this regard, as Boston is known to be looking to move one of Christian Vazquez, Sandy Leon, or Blake Swihart.

If the Royals go out in search of another option, they’ll likely focus on a short-term fix.  Perez, 28, is due to earn $10MM this season under the second extension he signed with the K.C. club.  That deal also promises him $13MM annually in the following two campaigns.

One of the few holdovers remaining from the Royals’ 2015 World Series team, Perez is a long-time fixture of the franchise, and was being counted on to continue being a clubhouse mentor to a younger K.C. roster as the team goes through another rebuild phase.  Perez hasn’t had an OBP over .300 since 2013 and his framing numbers took a big hit last season (as per both StatCorner and Baseball Prospectus), though he is still considered an above-average defender and provides some extra pop from the catcher’s position.  Perez has hit 97 homers over the last four seasons, more than any other catcher in baseball and a number topped by only 33 players in total.

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Kansas City Royals Newsstand Martin Maldonado Salvador Perez

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Latest On MLB-MLBPA Rules Negotiations

By Jeff Todd | March 1, 2019 at 3:41pm CDT

TODAY: There has been “significant progress” between the league and the MLBPA about these potential rule changes, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal writes (subscription required).  Since these changes have garnered support on both sides, they are seen as “win-win” developments that can be handled in the shorter-term, as opposed to a larger re-opening of the Collective Bargaining Agreement as a whole.  In regards to the much more complicated matter of discussing financial issues, MLB and the players’ union are “proceeding with the understanding they would discuss broader economic concepts sometime after Opening Day,” Rosenthal writes.

WEDNESDAY: Major League Baseball has brought the MLB Players Association a new package proposal of potential rules changes, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports.

The sides have been going back and forth on potential tweaks over recent months, all while trading barbs on a variety of matters. There are indications, per Passan, that this latest effort represents a compromise vision that could lead to an eventual deal.

MLB’s new proposal features a willingness to push back the implementation of a pitch clock until after the current CBA expires, per the report. Commissioner Rob Manfred has the power to implement the clock unilaterally but is evidently willing to utilize it as a bargaining chip. It remains to be seen whether the players will make concessions in other areas to oppose such an unpopular but financially neutral rule change.

Other aspects of the proffered approach are at least as notable. Passan says the league would like to implement:

  • single trade deadline of July 31st
  • three-batter minimum per pitcher (by 2020)
  • 26-man roster (by 2020) and 28-man September roster (with 13 and 14-pitcher limits)
  • 15-day injured list and 15-day minimum optional assignment
  • further limitations on mound visits, position-player pitching, and time between innings

The proposal also contemplates joint studies on more extensive rule changes. Some of the more exotic concepts are due for real-world testing in the Atlantic League. Per J.J. Cooper of Baseball America, the indy ball outfit is slated to function as a laboratory for robot umps and a moved-back mound. The agreement covers other areas as well. Of particular note, Trackman is coming to the Atlantic League.

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Collective Bargaining Agreement

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Mike Trout Downplays Interest In Spring Contract Talks

By Jeff Todd | March 1, 2019 at 3:15pm CDT

3:15PM: Trout provided some clarification in a follow-up comment to Torres (Twitter link), saying that his original statement “didn’t mean” he would be holding off extension talks until next offseason.

11:17AM: On the heels of Bryce Harper’s deal with the Phillies, Angels superstar Mike Trout was asked today about his own contract situation. Though he’s still two years away from the open market, there has been no shortage of speculation about the possibility of the Halos pursuing another extension with the game’s greatest current player.

Trout’s comments may not have closed the door to talks, but they were anything but a positive sign for those who’d like to see a deal come together. When asked by Maria Torres of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter link) whether he’d like to work on a new contract, Trout responded:

“With spring training you want to get ready for the season. You don’t wanna worry about anything else.”

There are several ways to take that sort of comment, to be sure. It’s oblique enough that it arguably shouldn’t be taken to signify much of anything. Then again, Trout has to this point been fastidiously non-committal regarding his future (or even the possibility of near-term talks). And the stakes are high, as this offseason provided a potential window for the Halos to secure the franchise’s greatest-ever player for the long run.

There’s no necessary rush for the Angels, who can explore talks next fall. Trout enjoys no-trade protection and there’s zero indication that the Angels have any interest in dealing him regardless. With Trout already slated to receive $33.25MM in each of the next two seasons and plenty already in the bank, he’s unlikely to grant much of a discount.

Still, the clock is ticking on Trout’s tenure with the club. If indeed talks aren’t to be held in earnest this spring, that leaves the 2019-20 offseason as perhaps the only remaining realistic extension window. Trout is said to be focused on playing for a winning team; the Halos have missed the postseason in each of the past four seasons and have an at-best-uncertain outlook for the coming campaign. Today’s comments probably don’t represent a major change in the situation, but they do serve to highlight what’s at stake in the near future for the Angels organization.

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Los Angeles Angels Mike Trout

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MLBTR Chat Transcript: Harper Fallout, Extensions, Spring Trades?

By Jeff Todd | March 1, 2019 at 2:08pm CDT

Click here to read a transcript of today’s chat with host Jeff Todd.

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MLBTR Chats

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Padres Sign Adam Warren

By Jeff Todd | March 1, 2019 at 1:26pm CDT

The Padres have inked reliever Adam Warren, per a club announcement. It’s a one-year deal with a club option. Warren, a client of Full Circle Sports Management, is promised $2.5MM on the contract, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter links). That includes a $2MM salary for 2019 and a $500K buyout on a $2.5MM option.

Southpaw Jose Castillo was placed on the 60-day injured list to create roster space. He is dealing with a flexor strain that is obviously considered a fairly significant malady.

Outside of a forgettable 2016 run with the Cubs, Warren has steadily produced good results at the MLB level. All said, he has thrown 463 2/3 innings of 3.42 ERA pitching. Warren carries only 7.8 K/9 in the aggregate, but he had boosted his strikeout numbers over the past two years — at least, that is, until he was dealt to the Mariners in the middle of the 2018 season. Warren racked up 11.1 strikeouts per nine in his first thirty frames of the year but dropped back to 6.2 K/9 down the stretch in Seattle.

Warren projects as another solid arm within a Padres bullpen that was already one of the team’s strengths in 2018.  Led by Kirby Yates and Craig Stammen, San Diego’s relief corps has added a pair of notable veterans in the last two weeks, between Aaron Loup and now the Warren signing.  Warren has pitched as a multi-inning reliever in the past, and perhaps could even be deployed as an “opener” should San Diego choose to adopt that strategy.

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Newsstand San Diego Padres Transactions Adam Warren

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Pirates Claim Jake Barrett

By Jeff Todd | March 1, 2019 at 1:19pm CDT

The Pirates have claimed right-handed reliever Jake Barrett, Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic tweets.  Barrett had recently been designated for assignment by the Giants.  Chad Kuhl was moved to the Pirates’ 60-day injured list in a corresponding move; Kuhl will likely miss the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last September.

Barrett finds himself with his third different organization in under a month.  After the Giants acquired him from the Diamondbacks in early February, Barrett then entered DFA limbo once again after San Francisco claimed Hanser Alberto.

The 27-year-old righty will now vie for a job in Pittsburgh’s bullpen this spring, following a season that saw him toss just seven MLB innings for Arizona.  Barrett posted solid numbers (3.49 ERA, 2.00 K/BB rate, 8.5 K/9 over 59 1/3 innings) in his 2016 season, but has been less effective ever since, appearing in just 35 total games for the D’Backs in 2017-18 and posting a 5.03 ERA over 34 frames.

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Pittsburgh Pirates Transactions Jake Barrett

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Orioles Claim Hanser Alberto, Designate Donnie Hart

By Jeff Todd | March 1, 2019 at 12:41pm CDT

The Orioles have claimed infielder Hanser Alberto off waivers from the Giants, per a club announcement. Southpaw Donnie Hart was designated for assignment to clear roster space.

If you’re keeping score at home, this is now the fourth time Alberto has been designated and claimed this winter — and the second time by the O’s. The Baltimore org had recently dropped him from the 40-man in order to claim lefty Josh Osich from the Giants, who in turn claimed (and have now waived and lost) Alberto.

In retrospect, perhaps it’d have all been easier had the O’s dropped Hart in the first place. Perhaps the team’s evaluation of the 28-year-old — and/or its non-Alberto infield assets — has changed in the meantime.

Hart has appeared in each of the past three MLB campaigns, working to a 3.43 ERA in 81 1/3 innings with 6.0 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 along with a 52.6% groundball rate. He was knocked around in his twenty appearances in the majors last year, though he did manage 41 frames of 2.41 ERA ball at Triple-A.

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Baltimore Orioles San Francisco Giants Transactions Hanser Alberto

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