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MLBTR Poll: The Bryce Harper Contract

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It’s not the biggest-ever salary promise if you account for inflation, but Bryce Harper’s reported deal with the Phillies does have the highest number ever attached to a big league guarantee: $330MM. The star slugger took a discounted annual rate of pay over 13 seasons to get there. Lacking an opt-out and with full no-trade rights for the player, Harper is rather likely (though hardly assured) to remain in Philadelphia until the end of the 2031 season.

We ran through some of the post-signing reporting on the deal this morning. You’ll find some key details on the negotiations there. Harper’s value has been debated endlessly, of course. Ultimately, the market gave us an answer. But it’s one that many find unappealing, either on the high or low side. For a contract that has been this long in the making — many looked forward to Harper’s free agency before he even signed his first professional contract with the Nationals — it seems worthy of a poll.

How would you characterize the Harper deal? (Link for app users.)

Phillies Injury Notes: Hernandez, Quinn, Hunter

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Even as they consider further acquisitions, the Phillies are dealing with a few health issues involving existing players. None seem particularly worrisome, but a few are worthy of note as the roster takes shape:

  • Second baseman Cesar Hernandez has been diagnosed with a grade 1 hip flexor strain, Matt Breen of Philly.com was among those to report on Twitter. It’s not known at this point how long the injury will keep him sidelined, though it’s surely promising that the diagnosis is of the lowest grade. Hernandez has been plenty durable in recent seasons, though he is already working to return from offseason foot surgery.
  • There’s also some worry surrounding the outfield health. Roman Quinn is dealing with a “mild” oblique strain, as MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki reports. That’s a tricky area of the body, but the real red flag here is Quinn’s own track record. Since he reached the professional ranks in 2012, the former second-round draft pick has yet to appear in 100 games in a single season. Quinn says he has done everything possible to “put my body in position to work at a high level,” making for a “really frustrating” situation. The Phils will hope that this latest malady heals up quickly, as Quinn had been slated to battle for a job on the MLB roster.
  • Reliever Tommy Hunter, meanwhile, says he’s not terribly concerned with the status of his forearm. While he has been diagnosed with a grade 1 flexor strain, Hunter says the injury is one he has experienced “pretty much every year.” This one was significant enough to require a pause, but it seems he expects to come through just fine. Even if that means missing some time early on in the season, Hunter says he’s confident in the organization’s relief depth.

Minor MLB Transactions: 2/28/19

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We’ll use this post to track the day’s minor moves …

  • The Padres have a deal in place with righty Chris Rowley, according to Robert Murray of The Athletic (Twitter link). Other terms of the pact aren’t known. Rowley, 28, has throw 19 1/3 MLB innings over the past two seasons, coughing up 17 earned runs with both 11 walks and strikeouts. He has been more effective in the upper minors, though. Last year at Triple-A, the West Point product worked to a 3.34 ERA with 6.1 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in 142 2/3 innings. Rowley has to this point spent most of his career with the Blue Jays, though he was claimed and later outrighted last year by the Rangers.

Braves Notes: Rotation Health, Revenue Growth

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To this point of the spring, the biggest health questions in Braves camp have surrounded youngster Mike Soroka and his balky shoulder. There’s nothing new yet on Soroka, who’ll face something of a test when he throws today. But there are some other health issues of note, as well as an update on the state of the club’s finances. Let’s have a look:

  • Key righty Mike Foltynewicz was scratched from his next scheduled start due to elbow soreness, skipper Brian Snitker told reporters including MLB.com’s Mark Bowman (Twitter links). Initial indications are that this isn’t considered serious, with Snitker saying that Foltynewicz wouldn’t have missed a regular season outing. Still, the club has set up a medical review for the weekend to take a closer look. It’s obviously tough to say whether there’s any real cause for concern here. As Bowman notes, some minor elbow issues have bothered Foltynewicz in recent season. On the one hand, that suggests some history in the joint; on the other, it didn’t prevent him from turning in a breakout 2018 campaign.
  • Meanwhile, fellow starters Luiz Gohara and Kevin Gausman are each dealing with some shoulder woes, Bowman further tweets. Both hurlers are throwing, which is certainly a good sign, though they’re each being handled with care. Whether they’ll be deemed ready to open the season in the MLB rotation will presumably be dictated by how their shoulders respond in the coming days, as they’ll need to begin building innings up to do so. In Gohara’s case, of course, he will also have to win a spot or take advantage of an opening.
  • It’s still theoretically possible that the Braves will choose to add to their existing pitching mix. The rotation was a secondary topic of conversation for the club’s top decisionmakers in a recent interview in which they discussed the decision (to this point) not to dedicate further payroll space to the 2019 roster. While the Braves insist they have untapped spending capacity, there are those who think they should be more eager both to spend what has been allocated and open the pocketbook yet further. Today’s disclosures from owner Liberty Media add yet more fuel to the flames. As Eric Fisher of Sports Business Journal was among those to note (via Twitter), the ballclub reported a year-over-year jump from $7MM to $94MM in operating income before interest and depreciation. As the above-linked interview suggested would be the case, the club has indeed driven down its debt load, though Fisher notes it’s primed to take on more in loans to further build out its property investments surrounding SunTrust Park. Tim Tucker of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution covered some other numbers from the team’s revenue report.

Latest On Offers To Bryce Harper

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If it seems we’re making only incremental progress in our understanding of the Bryce Harper saga, that may be due to the fact that the bidding is still progressing in a cautious manner. We learned yesterday that the Giants’ interest extended to the ten-year contract range, and there’s more chatter this morning, though it’s fair to wonder whether the recent movement is mostly just setting the stage for a final frenzy.

Harper’s camp seemingly expects to sign a record-breaking contract, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports. It remains to be seen both where Harper will land and what record(s) he’ll break, but Nightengale writes that the three primary remaining contenders — the Dodgers, Giants, and Phillies — “have vowed to provide Harper with either the biggest overall free-agent contract in North American sports history or the largest average annual salary anyone has ever received in the sport.” The present record-holders in each of those two measures are Giancarlo Stanton ($325MM total contract) and Zack Greinke ($34.42MM AAV).

Agent Scott Boras is said to be “circling back with other teams” to see if they wish to get involved at the last moment. Presumably, that’ll include a phone call to the Nationals, Harper’s only professional club to date and a frequent match with Boras clients. It’s unknown at this point whether any other organizations will jump into the mix or whether the bidding is down to a final three. Regardless, Nightengale suggests, it seems the final stage of the process is finally upon us.

Here’s a quick breakdown of where the three aforementioned primary contenders stand, based upon reporting to date:

  • The Phillies “still have the highest offer on the table,” per Nightengale. As Matt Breen of Philly.com reported yesterday, though the club is increasingly pessimistic of landing the star. The Phils are holding the line for the time being, per Andy Martino of SNY.tv (via Twitter), with Harper looking to move past the Stanton guarantee. Clearly, there’s some tension between this report and Nightengale’s assessment of the organizations’ willingness to set new high-water marks in the financial department.
  • The Dodgers are evidently still not willing to go to a decade, as ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reported yesterday on Twitter. They are, however, prepared to “obliterate” Greinke’s AAV record, Nightengale says. It seems the organization believes it’d need to dangle a term of “at least five years,” though that element of the interest is largely unknown. Neither is it known just how high the Dodgers would go in single-season AAV. It’s worth noting that the opt-out(s) included would be of even greater importance under this kind of scenario, though it’s unclear as yet how that could factor in.
  • As for the Giants, Nightengale says the club is willing to go past $300MM on a ten-year term to land Harper. That’s unsurprising, as it emerged yesterday that the San Francisco organization was willing to go to that length, but is notable nevertheless. Nightengale cites “panic and desperation about season-ticket sales and fan interest” as driving what is “strictly an ownership pursuit.”

Cardinals Sign Matt Wieters

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FEB. 28: Wieters would earn $1.5MM in the majors and can opt out on March 22nd, per Mark Saxon of The Athletic (via Twitter).

FEB. 27: The signing has been announced. It includes an invitation to MLB camp.

FEB. 26: The Cardinals have agreed to a minor-league deal with veteran catcher Matt Wieters, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (via Twitter). Salary terms are not yet known.

While he held out in hopes of securing a MLB commitment, the 32-year-old Wieters will settle instead for a chance to serve as a backup to Yadier Molina. The competition is fairly limited. Francisco Pena seemingly held the edge at the outset of camp after re-joining the organization on a minors pact. Joe Hudson is the only other backstop in camp with MLB experience.

Wieters can still put the ball over the fence, and posted career-best plate discipline marks in 2018, but he has not been very productive with the bat of late. Since the start of the 2016 season, he’s producing at only a .235/.303/.376 rate through 1,200 trips to the plate. That’s a far cry from the .254/.317/.436 output that Wieters managed over the prior half-decade.

Wieters isn’t generally regarded as a high-quality overall defender at this stage of his career, and fares poorly in particular in pitch-framing metrics, but does still block, throw, and manage a staff well. It’s possible there’s still some hope that he’ll restore some of his lost luster with the bat, making this a nice low-risk move for the St. Louis organization.

For the Cards, the addition deepens the catching unit as Molina closes in on his 37th birthday and works to recover from an offseason knee procedure. The switch-hitting Wieters has historically performed better against right-handed pitching, as has Molina, but neither carries significant career platoon splits. If Wieters can beat out Pena for the job, he seems like a potentially solid mate for Molina.

Dodgers To Sign Brad Miller

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The Dodgers have inked infielder Brad Miller to a minor league deal, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports on Twitter. He’ll join the MLB side of Spring Training once the deal is finalized.

Miller, 29, has generally been a solid offensive performer, with an overall track record of .239/.313/.409 hitting through 2,505 plate appearances in six MLB seasons. He delivers notable pop for a player capable of playing the middle infield, with a lifetime .170 isolated power mark and one thirty-homer season under his belt (2016). A left-handed hitter, Miller has typically found quite a bit more success against right-handed pitching, with a 46-point platoon split in his lifetime wRC+ figures.

It’s hard to characterize Miller otherwise, as his offensive profile has shifted over the last few seasons. His follow-up to his power surge was a 2017 season in which he lept to a 15.5% walk rate but managed only a .201 batting average and career-low .136 ISO.

It was also in 2017 that Miller began to strike out with greater frequency. That issue truly came to the fore last year, when he went down on strikes in nearly a third of his plate appearances. Otherwise, though, Miller turned in a relatively balanced campaign that mostly reflected his career mean, with a .248/.311/.413 slash and seven home runs through 254 plate appearances.

The shapeshifting hasn’t prevented Miller from typically turning in plenty of offense for a shortstop. But he hasn’t been asked to line up there since ’16, when metrics distinctly soured on his glovework. Miller hasn’t graded as a positive on the right side of the infield, either, but he can probably be trusted with at least some innings anywhere on the dirt.

Making the Dodgers roster out of camp will likely be a tall order for Miller, though his versatility and platoon-friendly offensive profile certainly suit the club’s mantra. Miller will look to follow in the footsteps of several other recent utilitymen — including former Mariners shortstop competitor Chris Taylor and 2018 breakout performer Max Muncy — in finding new form in Los Angeles. Muncy’s own presence on the roster is what makes Miller seem like a particularly tough fit at this point, though any number of developments could leave Miller with an opening to stake a claim to a job.

Giants Discussing 10-Year Deal With Bryce Harper

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8:10pm: ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets that the Dodgers’ interest in Harper is still “predicated on [a] short-term deal,” though he adds that the Giants are indeed in “heavy” on Harper.

1:26pm: All of the teams still engaged with Harper’s camp — including, presumably, the Dodgers and Phillies — have discussed contracts of at least one decade in length, per Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter).

1:16pm: The sides are discussing a ten-year deal, per Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. Salary levels are not known, but Pavlovic says the Giants’ offer would “likely give Harper a chance at the record dollar figure he has been looking for.”

11:48am: The Giants met again yesterday with Bryce Harper, according to a report from Kerry Crowley of the Bay Area News Group. CEO Larry Baer and president of baseball operations made a return trek to Las Vegas.

This news is all the more notable given that the rival Dodgers have jumped into the mix on Harper. Having now met twice with Harper and agent Scott Boras, it seems the San Francisco organization remains a serious pursuer.

The Phillies are also continuing their efforts to land the prized free agent, who is surely hoping to spark a late bidding war. Philadelphia is reportedly willing to commit over $300MM in a deal, with one other (as-yet-unidentified) team perhaps also playing in that range.

There had been “optimism” that the Phils would work out a deal by this point, but more recent developments have kept the door open to other organizations. As a Vegas native, Harper may well prefer to land on the west coast, though that’s all still guesswork even at this late stage of the market proceedings.

It’s possible we’re seeing some final positioning here from the remaining suitors. Whether the last bidding is underway isn’t known, but there have been indications that Harper will make a call this week and it stands to reason that he’d prefer to get into camp sooner than later.

Miguel Andujar Hires Octagon

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Yankees third baseman Miguel Andujar has hired Octagon to serve as his representation, per Robert Murray of The Athletic (via Twitter). You can find all updated agency relationships in MLBTR’s Agency Database.

Andujar, who’ll soon turn 24, turned in an exciting 2018 season in which he narrowly missed a Rookie of the Year nod. Despite 27 home runs and a .297/.328/.527 batting line over 606 plate appearances, Andujar placed second in the American League voting to the unique Shohei Ohtani.

With just over a year of MLB service on his ledger, Andujar won’t be eligible for arbitration until at least 2021 — with three more years to go from that point before potential free agency. Unless surprise extension talks come up, there won’t be much in the way of near-term contract negotiations. But he’ll surely ask his new reps to explore marketing opportunities befitting a young slugger who plays on the game’s biggest stage.

Kris Bryant: No Extension Talks With Cubs But Willing To Listen

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Star Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant discussed some largely hypothetical contractual matters today with reporters including Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune. Notably, he has not been approached by the organization about a potential long-term deal.

Bryant, 27, saw his productivity dip in an injury-limited 2018 campaign. But that’s only against his own lofty standards. Bryant, who’ll earn $12.9MM this year with two more arb seasons still to come, still rates among the best all-around players in baseball.

There was perhaps some reason to wonder whether the Cubs might see an opportunity to explore an extension, but that hasn’t happened yet. Bryant says he’d “be dumb not to hear anything they have to offer,” so it seems he’d be receptive to holding talks, though it also stands to reason that he’d put a lofty asking price on his future rights.

From a broader perspective, Bryant suggested that the recent extension of Nolan Arenado was a promising development in a player market that is still adjusting to the current collective bargaining agreement. “It’s nice to see another third baseman sign for that much,” he said.

Though Bryant is in quite a different situation than Arenado, who’s only ten months older and would have been a free agent after the coming season, the just-inked contract certainly bears on a hypothetical extension for the former. Bryant is arguably a slightly superior player, after all, and both sides would likely see the AAV on Arenado’s bought-out free-agent seasons as a highly relevant comp.

Zooming out yet further, Bryant also emphasized the fact that smaller-market teams have given out some of the biggest contracts in recent years. Players, he suggests, are well aware of teams’ spending capacities: “Everybody has money. We’re not stupid.”

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