Top 20 August Trade Candidates
Those that need a refresher on how August trades work should read our recent post on the subject. You’ll also find some notable examples of revocable waiver swaps in that post.
We’ve already seen a few of the top August trade candidates change uniforms this year. Shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria and pitchers Mike Fiers, Tyson Ross, Jordan Lyles, and Shawn Kelley have all been on the move in the first week of the month.
That doesn’t mean we’ve seen the end of the action, however. We’ll run through the most notable remaining candidates here. As always, the ranking is based upon a combination of trade likelihood and trade value. (Last year, for example, Justin Verlander barely cracked the back end of our final August ranking, because his contract situation made a deal hard to structure even though he otherwise profiled as a significant trade candidate. He ended up being traded in memorable fashion.) After the list, we’ve also rounded up some other potential candidates who are worth keeping an eye on as things develop over the course of the month.
Here goes:
1. Sergio Romo, RP, Rays: He’s carrying a 3.35 ERA on the year, with 10.1 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 over 51 frames, while working as a late-inning reliever, an “opener,” and even (quite briefly) a third baseman. Romo’s generally stellar swinging-strike rate is down a bit (to a still-strong 12.9%), but he’s still getting the job done and doing so in a manner that ERA estimators believe in (3.50 FIP / 3.75 xFIP / 3.25 SIERA). The veteran is an affordable rental player ($2.5MM salary), though that also means he’s easy to hold onto for a Rays club that may have designs on a reunion next season.
2. Jose Iglesias, SS, Tigers (cleared waivers): Though he’s not much with the bat, Iglesias has been better this year than in recent campaigns. In particular, he has destroyed lefties to the tune of a .931 OPS. And, of course, he remains an exquisite defender. We recently saw that there was a market for a similar, arguably lesser player in Hechavarria. Iglesias, who’s also a pending free agent and comes with a $6.275MM salary, seems reasonably likely to land somewhere before the calendar flips to September.
3. Jim Johnson, RP, Angels: With a 3.27 ERA and 7.2 K/9 against 3.1 BB/9 through 44 innings, Johnson has certainly been worth his $4.5MM salary. He’s no longer a dominant groundball pitcher, but still gets them on about half of the balls put in play against him. While there’s not much reason to think that any team will give up significant value to get Johnson, he would at least be a useful depth piece for a contender. Since the Halos have relatively little motivation to keep the pending free agent, other than to fill up innings, it’s easy to imagine him moving in some way this month.
4. Francisco Liriano, SP/RP, Tigers (cleared waivers): The Astros targeted Liriano last summer, so perhaps it shouldn’t surprise if he’s again viewed as an intriguing piece to add to a staff. Liriano could function as a matchup lefty in the bullpen while also providing some length, since he has worked as a starter this year. He’s currently sporting a 4.37 ERA over 90 2/3 innings, though he’s carrying only a 73:51 K/BB ratio and ERA estimators aren’t enamored with his work this year. It’s worth noting, however, that Liriano has been quite stingy against lefties this year, holding 72 same-handed hitters to a meager .125/.222/.219 slash.
5. Jerry Blevins, RP, Mets: Blevins has lowered his ERA to 4.08 since it sat at 5.30 in late June. His peripherals still aren’t quite as intriguing as they have been in the recent past, he’s struggling against lefties, and he’s generating swinging strikes at only an 8.5% rate on the year. But Blevins has a long history of success against same-handed hitters and is an obvious August trade candidate given that he’s earning a $7MM salary before returning to the open market.
6. Matt Harvey, SP, Reds: With Fiers and Ross already out the door, Harvey is arguably the most appealing rotation piece that’s obviously available. Frankly, though, that isn’t saying much. Harvey hasn’t really impressed of late. Harvey hasn’t lasted six innings in an outing since the beginning of July and has been knocked around in two of his last three starts. In 15 starts with the Reds, he carries a 4.79 ERA with 6.7 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9.
7. Fernando Rodney, RP, Twins: It came as a mild surprise when the journeying closer wasn’t dealt at the deadline, but it’s also no surprise that the Minnesota organization values its $4.25MM option over Rodney for 2019. He’s earning at the same, amply manageable rate this year. It’s all but certain that the ageless hurler will be claimed, as he owns a 3.09 ERA with 10.3 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 on the year. The question is whether the claim will go to a truly motivated team that can convince the Twins to make a deal.
8. Marco Estrada, SP, Blue Jays: Coming off of an excellent start in which he allowed just one earned run on one hit, Estrada could perhaps still turn into an intriguing trade candidate if he can get on a roll. He is still carrying only a 4.65 ERA on the year and just came back from a long layoff. His $13MM salary is certain to clear waivers, so the Jays will have plenty of options to consider.
9. Devin Mesoraco, C, Mets: Much like the man he was traded for earlier this year (Harvey), Mesoraco rates as an obvious trade candidate who perhaps simply hasn’t generated enough interest yet. Mesoraco hasn’t sustained a hot start at the plate since moving to New York, but still carries a nearly league-average .228/.301/.407 output in 186 plate appearances with the Mets. He could make sense for the right organization, particularly if an injury situation arises.
10. Tyler Clippard, RP, Blue Jays: Despite producing strong bottom-line results for much of the season, the veteran reliever has seen his earned-run average cross the 4.00 barrier after some rough recent outings. Still, he’s getting swinging strikes at a healthy 14.1% rate, has a ton of experience in high-leverage situations, and is earning just $1.5MM this season. It’s not hard to imagine a contending team deciding that it’d be nice to have him around down the stretch, much as the Astros did last year.
11. Freddy Galvis, SS, Padres: There’s a split of opinion from UZR and DRS on Galvis’s glovework this year at short, with the former grading him as average and the latter viewing him as an outstanding performer. No matter, the track record shows that Galvis is at least capable of holding his own at short. He also has experience at other infield spots. The switch-hitter has been better this year against lefties, but that’s counter to his career numbers.
12. Josh Donaldson, 3B, Blue Jays: He’s the obvious number one name on this list — if and when he gets back to full health. Still, he warrants mention even though that hasn’t yet occurred. It’s not impossible, after all, that he’ll be dealt even before he’s back in action. That’s especially true if the Toronto org tries to put him through waivers at the outset of his rehab assignment. Click here for a recent breakdown of the potential maneuvering this month involving Donaldson.
13. Jose Bautista, OF, Mets: With a .193/.309/.325 batting line in the month of July, Bautista hasn’t exactly been on fire of late. And there’s no evidence that he’s the feared slugger of yore. Plus, Bautista is striking out in nearly thirty percent of his plate appearances, quite a bit more than ever before. That said, he can still put the ball over the fence and he’s as disciplined at the plate as anyone in the game, with an outstanding 17.1% walk rate. The Mets are said to like the idea of having him around next year, even if they trade him. With Bautista earning only the league minimum salary, the club may want at least some kind of an interesting return to do a deal for a player they’d evidently prefer to keep on their roster. Whether or not that’ll come to pass remains to be seen.
14. Curtis Granderson, OF, Blue Jays: Much like Joey Bats, the Grandy Man has seemed for most of the season like an interesting bench bat target. But he turned in a dreadful month of July (.192/.268/.301). Granderson has been limited almost exclusively to facing right-handed pitching; he owns a respectable but hardly outstanding .243/.338/.433 slash against them for the season. Of course, some clubs may value his veteran presence down the stretch, too, and it shouldn’t be too hard to sort out the remainder of his $5MM salary.
15. Ervin Santana, SP, Twins: He’s only three starts into his return from a long injury layoff and hasn’t been in vintage form. Still, the veteran hurler has some time to show he can still be effective. His hefty $13.5MM salary makes it quite likely he’ll clear waivers; there’s also a $1MM buyout on a $14MM club option for 2019. If the Twins decide they aren’t going to pick that up, then perhaps they’ll seek to get what they can (cost savings and/or prospects) at some point this month.
16. Shin-Soo Choo, OF/DH, Rangers: Choo has been very productive at the plate, but he’s also mostly limited to functioning as a designated hitter, is already 36 years of age, and is not only owed the balance of his $20MM annual salary this year but $42MM more for the coming two seasons. He’d mostly appeal to American League teams, but it’s not clear that any of the current contenders is really positioned to add him.
17. Starlin Castro, 2B, Marlins: A strong run at the plate of late increases Castro’s appeal somewhat, though teams generally know what to expect. He’s a solidly average player earning a bit more than he’d likely command on the open market, with a $10MM salary this year, $11MM owed for 2019, and a $1MM buyout due thereafter. Still, if a sudden infield need arises, he’d be an immediate fill-in option. And the Marlins would surely be open to striking a deal.
18. Logan Morrison, 1B/DH, Twins: Hear me out. True, Morrison has been poor at the plate for most of the season. His $6.5MM salary feels steep given the output, and there’s still a $1MM buyout on a 2019 option. Plus, there are a few other lefty sluggers that could still be added. But none of those other players was as good as Morrison last year and Statcast suggests he’s been a victim of poor fortune in 2018 (.290 wOBA vs. .355 xwOBA). The Twins ought to be motivated to save some cash, and Morrison might be an intriguing bench/platoon bat for the right contender.
19-20. Elvis Andrus, SS & Adrian Beltre, 3B, Rangers: Andrus is hitting again and could be a free agent at season’s end. But his opt-out situation — he can choose to hit the open market this year or next, or play for at least four more years and $58MM — greatly complicates things. That said, the Tigers managed to deal Justin Upton last year in a generally similar situation, so perhaps a swap can’t be ruled out. As for Beltre, there was interest heading into the deadline. Unlike Adam Jones of the Orioles — another high-priced, highly respected player with full no-trade rights — Beltre never (so far as is publicly known) fully ruled out a deal. While both he and the team are seemingly happy to continue their relationship for the rest of the year, if not beyond, perhaps there’s still a chance that he’s dealt.
Injured
Dexter Fowler, OF, Cardinals; Doug Fister, SP, Rangers; Tony Barnette, RP, Rangers; Jay Bruce, Mets
Also Considered
Starting Pitchers: Bartolo Colon, Rangers; Jaime Garcia, Blue Jays; Andrew Cashner & Alex Cobb, Orioles; Jordan Zimmermann, Tigers; James Shields, White Sox; Yovani Gallardo, Rangers
Relievers: Addison Reed, Twins; Anthony Swarzak, Mets; Jake Petricka, Blue Jays; Luis Avilan, Xavier Cedeno & Hector Santiago, White Sox; Chris Martin, Rangers
Infielders: Martin Prado, Marlins; Todd Frazier, Mets; Kendrys Morales, Blue Jays; Danny Valencia, Orioles; Todd Frazier, Mets; Lucas Duda, Royals; A.J. Ellis, Padres; Logan Forsythe, Twins
Outfielders: Carlos Gomez, Rays; Mark Trumbo & Adam Jones, Orioles; Eric Young & Kole Calhoun, Angels; Billy Hamilton, Reds
Teams To Watch
The American League field has been narrowed substantially, with just six teams battling for five postseason spots. Unless one of those clubs goes through a terrible run over the next few weeks, the divide between buyers and sellers will remain fixed on that side.
It’s quite different in the National League, however. There’s still loads of uncertainty and many possibilities for change in the coming weeks. The Nationals, Cardinals, and Giants all entered the season with expectations of contention, but could still pivot if they fall further back. Likewise, the Pirates could still decide to seek some savings on veterans if things go south. That could make for some fascinating, late-emerging trade candidates. For now, the picture remains unclear.
Minor MLB Transactions: 8/7/18
We’ll use this post to track the day’s minor moves …
Latest…
- The Blue Jays will hold Darnell Sweeney on their active roster no longer. The club has announced that he cleared waivers and has been outrighted to Triple-A. Sweeney earned just four plate appearances with Toronto this season prior to being designated for assignment; it was his first taste of major league action since 2015, when the 27-year-old was with the Phillies. It seems as though the move was more motivated by projected potential than performance. Although Sweeney didn’t get a hit in his four trips to the plate, he did manage to draw two walks. He did, however, hit just .235/.310/.398 at the Triple-A level, and while that’s good for a nearly-average 98 wRC+, he also struck out in more than 30% of his plate appearances.
- The Angels announced that they’ve placed infielder Luis Valbuena on release waivers. The 32-year-old is finishing up a two-year, $15MM contract with a 2019 club option, which clearly won’t be exercised. He’s long been a useful major-league asset, providing at least 1 fWAR across each of the past six seasons while with the Cubs, Astros and Angels. Unfortunately, this year has been an entirely different story, as he’s mustered just a .199/.253/.335 batting line across 288 plate appearances for the Halos while striking out a whopping 34.7% of the time. Valbuena’s performance has also suffered from a 6.6% walk rate that’s nearly four full percentage points below his career average of 10.5%.
Earlier…
- The Twins have released right-hander Todd Van Steensel, according to Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN (via Twitter). It seems the organization simply ran out of room for the 27-year-old reliever, who has been with the Twins since 2011. The Aussie had spent the 2018 season at the Double-A level, working to a 3.07 ERA with 10.0 K/9 against 4.7 BB/9 while allowing just 26 hits over 44 innings.
Brandon Drury Diagnosed With Fractured Hand
Blue Jays infielder Brandon Drury has been diagnosed with a fractured left hand, the club announced. He’s heading to the 10-day disabled list, with infielder Richard Urena coming up to take his spot on the active roster.
Drury, who’s closing in on his 26th birthday, has struggled at the plate to open his tenure in Toronto. He came over with Billy McKinney from the division-rival Yankees in a late-July deal that sent J.A. Happ to New York.
The anticipated timeline isn’t yet known, but it seems reasonable to anticipate that Drury will be out for most or all of the remainder of the season. While that’s not necessarily of significant impact to a Blue Jays club who’ve already sold off assets and raised the white flag on the 2018 season, it certainly adds another moral blow to a frustrating season for the former 13th-rounder. Following back-to-back solid (if unspectacular) seasons with the Diamondbacks, Drury looked to have carved out a place on the club’s major league roster for years to come.
Things took an unexpected turn, though, as Drury was shipped to the Yankees in the offseason as part of the three-team trade that sent Steven Souza Jr. to the Diamondbacks. He figured to serve as a stopgap in the Yankees’ infield that would reduce the urgency to promote Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar, but blurred vision and migraines caused him to hit the DL in April, and Drury was optioned to Triple-A when he became healthy. From that point on, Drury was never truly able to get going, as evidenced by his .169/.256/.260 batting line across 86 plate appearances with the Yankees and Blue Jays.
The addition of Drury to the disabled list will thin out Toronto’s infield depth, leaving the uninspiring (and strikeout-prone) Urena as the club’s lone option to back up Yangervis Solarte, Aledmys Diaz and Devon Travis. The club has given no indication that they might add third base superprospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to the major league roster any time soon.
Brewers Claim Ariel Hernandez
The Brewers announced today that they have claimed right-hander Ariel Hernandez off waivers from the Dodgers. He had been designated for assignment recently.
Hernandez worked at 98.1 mph with his fastball and produced a 12.6% swinging-strike rate in 24 1/3 MLB frames last year with the Reds. But he also handed out 22 free passes in that span, which perhaps led the Cincinnati club to designate him for assignment early in the present season.
It’s also clear, though, that teams are intrigued at the idea of harnessing Hernandez’s stuff. The Dodgers had to give up some value to acquire him in mid-April, indicating that there was competition, and now the Brewers will tie up a 40-man spot (for the time being, at least) in the middle of a pennant race.
Thus far in 2018, Hernandez has posted a 2.52 ERA in fifty frames over 37 appearances in the upper minors. But he has also produced just 49 strikeouts to go with 29 walks on the year. Hernandez has struggled in particular at the highest level of the minors; in 42 1/3 total frames there over the past two seasons, he has retired 40 batters on strikes but issued 39 free passes.
Rangers Claim Zac Curtis, Designate Brandon Mann
The Rangers have claimed southpaw Zac Curtis off waivers from the Phillies, per club announcements. In a corresponding move, the Texas organization designated fellow lefty Brandon Mann for assignment.
Curtis has held opposing hitters to just two earned runs in 9 2/3 innings on the year, but he has also permitted ten walks to go with his ten strikeouts. In 31 1/3 innings of MLB action spread over the past three years, he has worked to a 3.73 ERA but has matched this season’s ugly 1:1 K/BB ratio (26 apiece).
Of course, Curtis has spent most of the season at Triple-A. There, he has worked to a 3.00 ERA with 10.3 K/9 and 4.7 BB/9 over his 42 innings. He’ll head to Triple-A on optional assignment when he reports to the Texas organization.
As for Mann, it has been a dream season even if things didn’t pan out fully with the Rangers. Remarkably, he made his MLB debut at 34 years of age, though he struggled through six appearances. Mann did turn in a strong effort at Triple-A on the year, posting 43 1/3 innings of 2.70 ERA ball with 7.7 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9.
Jose Iglesias, Francisco Liriano, Jordan Zimmermann Clear Trade Waivers
Three prominent Tigers players have cleared revocable trade waivers, according to Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free-Press. Infielder Jose Iglesias, lefty Francisco Liriano, and righty Jordan Zimmermann can all now be traded freely for the rest of the season.
Of course, deals need to be struck by the end of the month for any player to have postseason eligibility with a new organization. And any preexisting limitations — such as Zimmermann’s no-trade rights — remain in full force.
Of these players, the former two seem to be likely trade candidates. Both are pending free agents earning reasonably significant money. Iglesias, 28, is playing on a $6.275MM salary, while the 34-year-old Liriano is owed a total of $4MM.
Teams interested in upgrading their infield defense will surely consider Iglesias, who’s among the game’s best fielders at short. He’s also producing at a respectable rate at the plate for a defender of his quality, with a 88 wRC+ for the season. Liriano, meanwhile, likely won’t be pursued as a starter, as metrics don’t really support his 4.37 ERA. That said, he has handcuffed lefty hitters this year and it certainly doesn’t hurt that he’s stretched out.
As for Zimmermann, he’s earning $24MM this year and $50MM total for the following two seasons. That’s a big chunk of change. Plus, Zimmermann has full no-trade rights during the present campaign. (They’ll revert to partial rights at season’s end.)
While similar roadblocks did not stop the club from dealing franchise cornerstone Justin Verlander last August, Zimmermann hasn’t pitched well enough to force the issue in the manner of his former teammate. The 32-year-old Zimmermann has certainly fared better this year than at any prior point in his tenure with the Tigers, with a 4.31 ERA over 77 1/3 innings and improved mix of 8.5 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9. But he has also had some health concerns and still likely won’t be valued at anything close to his remaining contract. Plus, there’s still no reason to believe he’d be interested in waiving his no-trade protection, as geography played a role in bringing him to Detroit in the first place.
Jacoby Ellsbury Undergoes Hip Surgery
The Yankees announced today that outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury has undergone surgery to repair the labrum of his left hip. He’s expected to require six months of recovery time.
Ellsbury’s season is now over before it ever began. The 34-year-old has been on the disabled list all year with a dizzying array of injuries. He did not appear in game action at any level.
The veteran outfielder joined the Yankees on a monster seven-year, $153MM contract that has not turned out as hoped. It runs through 2020 and also includes a $5MM buyout on a $21MM option for an additional season. It is not clear whether or to what extent the Yanks insured the contract.
Ellsbury has fallen far short of expectations in the Bronx. He was a 3.5 fWAR performer in his first season, but hasn’t even reached 2 fWAR in any of the three ensuing seasons. Though Ellsbury has certainly been worthy of a roster spot, and has produced useful numbers against right-handed pitching, the overall production is nothing close to what the Yanks have paid for.
Nexen Heroes Sign Jerry Sands, Release Michael Choice
The Korea Baseball Organization’s Nexen Heroes have announced that they have signed former MLB outfielder Jerry Sands (h/t Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net, on Twitter). He’ll take the roster spot of fellow outfielder Michael Choice, another prior big leaguer, who was released.
Sands, 30, has seen action in five MLB seasons, producing a composite .238/.303/.367 batting line. He had spent the past two seasons with the Giants organization. In 371 plate appearances at the Double-A and Triple-A levels in 2018, Sands carries a .269/.361/.505 slash with 16 long balls.
As for Choice, a 28-year-old former first-round draft pick, he has struggled through three hundred career MLB plate appearances (.188/.253/.320) but turned in a big 2017 effort after moving to Nexen last year. Unfortunately, he hasn’t matched that productivity thus far in the present season, as he’s carrying a .258/.339/.458 batting line with 17 home runs.
Choice’s stat line may look fairly robust at first glance, but it’s not all that impressive for the notoriously hitter-friendly KBO. The standards are especially high for foreign players, as each team is capped at three apiece. There are quite a few significant performers listed on MyKBO’s foreign-player leaderboard. As Kurtz notes, today’s transaction occurs just before the mid-August deadline for KBO players to add foreign players to their roster who are eligible for postseason play.
Nationals Sign Greg Holland
After reportedly agreeing to terms over the weekend, the Nationals have officially struck a deal with veteran reliever Greg Holland. Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post tweeted the news, which has now been announced by the team.
Holland will head straight onto the Nats’ MLB roster, the team announced. Righty Jimmy Cordero was optioned back to Triple-A to create space.
In a sense, this represents a culmination of years of dalliances between Holland and the Nationals. Though the sides did not line up during either of his trips onto the open market, the Scott Boras client obviously held appeal all along to the D.C. organization.
Of course, the premise is quite a bit different now than it was in the prior two winters. Holland was recently cut loose by the Cardinals after a rough stint with the team. The St. Louis organization will remain responsible for the remainder of his $14MM annual salary, less a pro-rated portion of the league minimum.
This move represents the latest twist in the Nats’ recent bullpen saga. Even as the club decided not to blow things up at the deadline, it moved veteran reliever Brandon Kintzler. Days later, the team designated and dealt Shawn Kelley after he slammed his glove and stared into the team’s dugout in the midst of a mop-up outing.
In parting with those two hurlers and adding Holland, the Nationals are certainly taking some chances while saving salary. It’s arguable, at best, whether there’s greater upside in the current mix; the floor, surely, is lower.
Holland has a history of excellence and was a quality performer for much of the 2017 season. But he’ll now rejoin former ‘pen mate Kelvin Herrera — a mid-season acquisition in Washington — with considerably less fanfare than he would have at most points in the past.
After all, through 25 frames this year, Holland has coughed up exactly as many earned runs and walks as he has recorded strikeouts, with 22 of each. That startling fact is backed by some other problems. Holland has lost another mile per hour on his fastball, even against his diminished post-Tommy John levels. And he’s generating swinging strikes at an 11.8% rate that’s the lowest since his first, brief taste of the majors in 2010.
If there’s cause for optimism, it lies in Holland’s relatively improved work since he took some time off in the middle of the season. He was tuned up for five earned runs in a July 8th appearance against the Giants, but otherwise has thrown 11 innings over which he allowed three earned runs with an 11:5 K/BB ratio since his return in mid-June.
Diamondbacks Designate Deven Marrero
The Diamondbacks have designated infielder Deven Marrero for assignment, as MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert was among those to tweet after last night’s game.
Marrero had been working back from a stint on the disabled list. Clearly, the organization decided not to bring him back onto the active roster. Marrero is out of options, so this was the only other choice.
Soon to turn 28, Marrero was picked up from the Red Sox just before the start of the season. Valued highly for his glovework, the former first-rounder has never come around with the bat. In 85 plate appearances this year, he managed only a .167/.224/.205 slash line, leaving him with a 39 wRC+ in 343 trips to the MLB plate over the past four seasons.