Rockies, Rays Nearing Trade
The Rockies and Rays are nearing an unspecified trade, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports on Twitter.
It’s not entirely clear at present what could be involved. Recent reports have suggested the clubs could match up on a deal, potentially including outfielder Corey Dickerson on the Colorado side and reliever Jake McGee on the Tampa Bay side. But others have cast doubt on such a scenario, and it isn’t hard to imagine other ways the sides could come together.
Yankees Avoid Arbitration With Ivan Nova
We’ll track the day’s arbitration agreements in this post:
- The Yankees have reached agreement on a $4.1MM salary with righty Ivan Nova, Jack Curry of the YES Network tweets. Nova had asked for $4.6MM, with the team countering at $3.8MM, after projecting at $4.4MM. He’ll also have some incentives in the agreement. The 29-year-old, who was coming back from Tommy John surgery last year, worked to a disappointing 5.07 ERA with 6.0 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 over 94 innings. He has had solid results at times in the past, though, and did at least show that his velocity was all the way back in 2015. Nova will be a free agent after the season.
Astros Sign Doug Fister
The Astros have announced the signing of righty Doug Fister to a one-year deal. The PSI Sports Management client will receive a $7MM guarantee in the contract, which includes incentives that can boost its total value to $12MM, Chris Cotillo of SB Nation tweets.
Heading into the winter, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted a one-year pact in the $10MM range for the towering right-hander. While he falls shy of that, in terms of guarantee, Dierkes rightly pegged Houston as the landing spot.
It’s easy to see the appeal for an Astros club that has plenty of rotation options, but still carried some uncertainty. Fister will presumably slot in toward the back of a staff fronted by Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh. It’s not exactly clear how things will line up otherwise, but the depth looks solid. Youngster Lance McCullers Jr. showed so much promise last year that it’s hard not to imagine him in the rotation. Scott Feldman is still facing some injury uncertainty after he was shut down late last year, though he says he’s healthy. And Mike Fiers had good results upon joining Houston, including a no-hitter, though he also could feature as a high-end swingman.
Fister, who’ll soon turn 32, is a classic bounceback candidate. After several strong years in Detroit, he put up a stellar 2.41 ERA over 164 frames in 2014, his first season with the Nationals. But things took a turn south last year, as he dealt with injury issues and lost his rotation spot after he was tagged for a 4.60 ERA and .302/.341/.471 batting line in 15 starts.
Though he showed better form working out of the pen, there are some concerns that extend beyond the results. Fister has never been reliant on velocity, but his average sinker lost 1.7 ticks in dropping all the way to 86.1 mph in 2015. Typically a reliable groundball producer, Fister induced grounders on just 44.6% of the balls put in play against him.
Fister also allowed home runs at a much higher rate than usual in his final season in D.C. And while he’s never been a strikeout pitcher, his 5.5 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9 represented the worst K:BB ratio he’s logged since his debut season. Advanced metrics have always lagged results for the veteran, but they were especially down on him last year. He ended up with a 4.55 FIP, 4.46 xFIP, and 4.47 SIERA to accompany the 4.19 ERA that he tallied over his 103 total frames.
Of course, Fister battled through a forearm strain to open the year, which could go a long way towards explaining his struggles. If he can build up in camp at full strength, it isn’t hard to imagine that he might return to being a quality rotation piece — even if it would be a bit optimistic to expect a repeat of that 2014 effort. While he hasn’t always put up huge innings tallies, Fister has generally been rather durable over his career, and the Astros will surely hope he can fill up some frames with average-or-better run prevention numbers in 2016.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Poll: Who’ll Sign Dexter Fowler?
It’s been a largely quiet offseason so far for outfielder Dexter Fowler, and that’s surprising in some ways. On the other hand, the market moved first for pitchers, and we’ve seen a steady stream of outfield signings since we hit 2016. With players in front of him such as Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, and Alex Gordon, not to mention more direct competition in the former of Denard Span and the still-unsigned Austin Jackson, Fowler has simply had to wait.
While pre-winter predictions may no longer really apply, and the qualifying offer seems an increasing burden, that doesn’t mean that Fowler isn’t in demand. After all, he’s yet to turn 30, is capable of playing up the middle, and has consistently produced at the plate. Since the start of 2013, Fowler owns a 112 OPS+, and he swatted a career-best 17 long balls last year.
MLBTR’s Steve Adams and I talked through his market in last week’s podcast, and our own Tim Dierkes looked at every team in the league in relation to Fowler in his newsletter yesterday. (You can find information for subscribing to that free weekly feature right here.)
There are some good options still, though it’s hard to peg a clear favorite. Tim wrote that he sees the most plausible landing spots — for a variety of reasons, and under different scenarios — as the White Sox, Brewers, Giants, Indians, Orioles, Rangers, Athletics, Angels, Cardinals, Padres, and Phillies. From my perspective, a reunion with the Cubs still seems plausible, though as Tim noted that might only make sense in the event of a trade.
Which of those teams do you think seems most likely? Or, could a dark horse emerge?
Which Team Is Most Likely To Sign Dexter Fowler?
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Cubs 27% (4,299)
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White Sox 23% (3,608)
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Orioles 9% (1,480)
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Cardinals 9% (1,448)
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Other 8% (1,311)
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Indians 6% (935)
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Giants 4% (657)
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Rangers 4% (599)
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Padres 3% (481)
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Athletics 3% (466)
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Phillies 2% (370)
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Brewers 2% (283)
Total votes: 15,937
Central Notes: Molina, Walden, Rosenthal, Mesoraco, Reds, Plouffe
The Cardinals will increasingly need to consider a long-term replacement for Yadier Molina, to say nothing of preparing for a season in which he’ll be looking to return from two thumb surgeries, as Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. Frederickson spoke with two potential future options behind the dish, Michael Ohlman and Carson Kelly. He adds that St. Louis GM John Mozeliak is still looking to add another veteran option to the mix this spring for depth purposes. While the Cards remain confident that Yadi will be ready to go for 2016, he’s still sporting protection for his thumb at present. Of course, the club still seems committed to relying on Molina — along with new backup Brayan Pena — for the bulk of its backstop duties this year.
Here’s more from the game’s central divisions:
- MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch provides some notable Cardinals pen updates in a reader mailbag post. Reliever Jordan Walden is expected to go through a normal spring ramp-up, though she says there’s still uncertainty in his shoulder. The organization does not appear to have any immediate interest in extension talks with closer Trevor Rosenthal, Langosch adds, though there’s little urgency since he only just reached arbitration.
- Reds backstop Devin Mesoraco says that he’s feeling well and looking forward to a return after undergoing hip surgery last summer, MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon reports. “I’m good. I’m anxious to get back out on the field here,” Mesoraco said. “It’s been a long haul with rehabbing and working out. Everything is feeling the way that it should, the way that we planned.”
- There’s no shortage of left field options for the Reds as camp approaches, Sheldon writes, listing Yorman Rodriguez, Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler, Jake Cave, and Kyle Waldrop. “Those are the guys,” said GM Dick Williams. “Some of those guys can play multiple positions. There are guys that can play multiple outfield spots. [Juan] Duran will be in camp, and [Tyler] Holt. [Jesse] Winker, Waldrop and some of the younger guys, too.”
- The Twins never had serious conversations with third baseman Trevor Plouffe about a long-term deal while negotiating his arb salary this year, Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN tweets. Of course, there’s plenty of time to chat this spring if there’s interest, but it’s not clear that Minnesota would or should pursue a lengthy pact with the 29-year-old, who remains under team control for one more year via arbitration.
- Meanwhile, the Twins are not interested in southpaw reliever Eric O’Flaherty, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports on Twitter. O’Flaherty was said to be showcasing for scouts yesterday, but it seems that Minnesota won’t be one of the clubs taking a closer look.
Pitching Notes: Tomlin, O’Flaherty, Masterson, Marlins, Breslow
Indians righty Josh Tomlin and club GM Mike Chernoff discussed their newly-minted extension, as Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal reports. While noting that Tomlin has some experience in the pen, Chernoff said that “he’ll have every opportunity to be in the starting rotation” this year. For the pitcher, the agreement was not just about maximizing his career earnings. “When they approached my agent about that contract, it was something that excited me and got me looking forward to this season,” he said. “I wasn’t really looking towards the future saying, ‘OK, these guys are getting this much money. I could potentially have that kind of money.’ It never entered my head. It was, ‘The Cleveland Indians wanted to give me a shot and I’m all about it.’”
Here’s the latest on the market for arms:
- Veteran lefty Eric O’Flaherty is set to throw for scouts today in Seattle, according to Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter). He’ll be looking to prove that he’s not only healthy, but has worked out some mechanical kinks, per the report. Soon to turn 31, O’Flaherty endured a tough 2015 campaign — in particular, he showed an uncharacteristic inability to avoid the free pass — and will be looking for an opportunity to bounce back in 2016.
- Righty Justin Masterson is beginning a throwing program and could be lining up a mid-March display for teams, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets. We’ve heard previously of interest from a handful of clubs, but it seems that the one-time Indians stalwart will be looking to show off his form at full strength before signing.
- The Marlins had interest in right-hander Bronson Arroyo before he inked with the Nationals, according to MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro, and the team is leaning toward other free agent options that won’t require a guaranteed deal. While Miami will still consider a rotation piece on a MLB deal, per the report, it will only do so if it’s sure that any such player is at full health. Frisaro explains that the team is looking to maximize an approximately $75MM payroll with players that will be on the field.
- Left-hander Craig Breslow is drawing interest from teams that view him as both a rotation and pen possibility, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports. The 35-year-old has been looking for a chance at a late-career move back to the rotation after a successful pair of starts late last year.
Angels Acquire Jefry Marte, Designate Ronald Torreyes
The Angels have announced a trade to acquire corner infielder Jefry Marte from the Tigers in exchange for second baseman Kody Eaves. Marte had been designated for assignment to clear roster space for the signing of Justin Upton.
To create a 40-man spot, Los Angeles designated infielder Ronald Torreyes for assignment, MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez tweets. The 23-year-old had only just been claimed off waivers. He’s bounced around quite a bit of late and could be destined for another team unless he clears this time.
Marte, 24, debuted last year for Detroit, slashing .213/.284/.413 with four home runs in 90 plate appearances. Marte cracked the Baseball Prospectus top 100 prospects list before the 2009 season, but his development took some time. After a middling 2014 campaign at Double-A, he put up strong results in 2015 at the Triple-A level. In 399 plate appearances there, he carried a .275/.341/.487 batting line and swatted 25 long balls.
Meanwhile, the 22-year-old Eaves reached the High-A level last year, putting up a .248/.308/.387 slash in his 575 plate appearances. He also stole 21 bases on the year. Eaves was a 16th round pick in the 2012 draft.
Quick Hits: PEDs, Computer Breach, Tanking, Extensions
Major league baseball will work with the United States Anti-Doping Agency (USADA) in its investigation of PED allegations arising from a recent Al Jazeera report, ESPN.com’s T.J. Quinn reports. Several players were implicated in that report, including Ryan Zimmerman of the Nationals and Ryan Howard of the Phillies. “We’ve had discussions with USADA and are hopeful that together we can make progress in this investigation,” said the league’s chief legal officer, Dan Halem. As Quinn explains, it’s an unprecedented level of interaction between the league and the agency. The NFL, on the other hand, won’t be participating in the arrangement.
Here are some more notes of general interest from around the game:
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports argues that commissioner Rob Manfred must not show any favoritism towards the Cardinals and owner Bill DeWitt in assessing whether and how to issue penalties arising from the improper accessing of the Astros‘ computer systems by former Cards scouting director Chris Correa. (For the latest information on that, read here and here.) Manfred and DeWitt enjoy a good relationship, as the commissioner himself made clear in comments to Rosenthal. But the top league official also left no room for interpretation as to his intentions, telling FOX Sports: “I think what the owners expect me to do — regardless of what my relationship [with an owner] may or may not be personally — is do the right thing by the institution. That’s what I intend to do when I have all the facts about the Houston-St. Louis thing.”
- There’s been some debate recently about the subject of “tanking,” and both Dave Cameron of Fangraphs and Buster Olney of ESPN.com weighed in on it yesterday. Cameron argues that there aren’t strong enough incentives for MLB teams to lose on purpose in pursuit of better positions for amateur talent. Olney counters that some talent evaluators in the game see a real and growing problem. Manfred’s own recent take on the matter is well worth consideration as well.
- ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden takes a crack (Insider link) at valuing some possible extensions of top young players around the game. He has Bryce Harper at just over $400MM, which is also the rough price range that MLBTR’s Steve Adams and MLBTR’s readers have previously landed at. It’s an interesting thought experiment, and is well worth a read. I would take some issue, however, with the spread between his $100MM+ valuations on players like Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor and his approximately seven-year, $70MM estimates for the two Red Sox players on the list, Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts.
- Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper offers an interesting and sometimes sobering look at some of the very best prospects that never made it to the major leagues.
Orioles Were In On Cespedes, Made Five-Year Offer
The Orioles were a third team in on outfielder Yoenis Cespedes late last week, joining the Nationals and Mets, Jon Heyman reports on Twitter. Baltimore had a five-year offer on the table, says Heyman, but it was obviously turned down.
It appears, then, that Cespedes rejected two separate five-year concepts to go back to the Mets for three years and $75, with an opt-out after the first season. But it hasn’t been reported what kind of guarantee and payout structure was involved in the O’s offer. And it’s important to bear in mind that recent reporting suggests the Nationals’ five-year deal had extensive deferrals that put a huge dent in its real value.
Aside from the historical interest, this news is chiefly relevant because of what it says about the Orioles’ willingness and capacity to keep spending. Expectations were that the club would not be involved on Cespedes — at least, not to that level — after promising $161MM (with major deferrals) to slugger Chris Davis. In all likelihood, the Cuban star would have followed Davis in topping the team’s prior record for largest guarantee.
Looking ahead, Baltimore still has good reason to pursue another outfielder and at least one additional starter. It seems that the club will have at least the possibility of deploying some rather significant resources to fill those needs. There are options on hand, of course, and it could be that Cespedes was a somewhat unique target. But the news suggests that the O’s have the means to participate in the markets for top remaining players such as Dexter Fowler, Austin Jackson, and Yovani Gallardo.
There are also some trade possibilities that could be opened up by the presence of salary space. Hypothetical trade targets like Carlos Gonzalez, Andre Ethier, Jay Bruce, or even Ryan Braun could, in theory, be made to fit from a payroll perspective. Likewise, pricier arms — say, Tyson Ross or C.J. Wilson — could be considered under various scenarios. (The point here is not to say any of these particular players are being or should be pursued, but rather to provide examples of the range of conceivable options.)
Longer-term payroll developments are an interesting element of the story, too. Baltimore not only added Davis, but also took on a significant obligations this winter to backstop Matt Wieters (via the qualifying offer) and reliever Darren O’Day. The club’s estimated Opening Day spending already tops last year’s ~$118MM mark, and that’s before accounting for the still-undetermined salaries of Zach Britton and Brian Matusz, which figures to cost another $10MM and change. Needless to say, whatever the offer, adding Cespedes would have pushed the payroll well outside the team’s prior spending bounds.
As noted, it’s entirely unclear whether Baltimore will pursue other ways of re-deploying the funds that might have gone to Cespedes. Indeed, it’s not impossible to think that adding him might have required the team to shed some other salary. Regardless, the possibility of significant additional payroll space is intriguing to consider moving forward.
Mets Re-Sign Yoenis Cespedes
While he might have originally been acquired as a rental piece at the non-waiver trade deadline, Yoenis Cespedes is staying with the Mets, who announced a three-year deal with the slugging outfielder on Tuesday evening. Cespedes will reportedly be guaranteed $75MM, though he can also opt out after the first season, at which point he’ll have earned $27.5MM on the front-loaded contract. He’ll reportedly earn $23.75MM in both 2017 and 2018 if he does not opt out, and the new deal is also said to include a full no-trade clause.
While a return to the Mets has always seemed plausible, it’s also appeared at times to be a long shot. That’s due in large part to the fact that Cespedes seemed destined to land a much greater, longer-term commitment than Sandy Alderson and co. were willing and able to make.
With Michael Conforto and Curtis Granderson at the corners, and Juan Lagares and recent addition Alejandro De Aza available up the middle, there wasn’t a need, strictly speaking. But Michael Cuddyer‘s retirement opened a roster spot and some capital, and the Mets stayed in position as the winter progressed. The team’s payroll will approach the $140MM mark with Cespedes in tow, but the somewhat surprising World Series run last year and an impressive crop of young pitchers certainly justified such an advance.
It remains to be seen what New York will do in crafting an outfield alignment. A trade of Lagares makes some sense at first glance, though it isn’t clear what they’d be looking for in return, and selling low isn’t appealing either. Then there’s the fact that the gifted fielder might be of importance not only down the line, but also in 2016. Granderson could surely stand to avoid left-handed pitching, while Conforto is still somewhat unproven despite an impressive debut. And, Cespedes did not look terribly comfortable in center field last year, so some late-game shifting could be in order at times.
Any way you cut it, the signing looks to represent a major coup for the Mets, who’ll look to defend their NL East title with the man who helped lead them there in the first place. Cespedes, 30, put up a huge .287/.337/.604 slash down the stretch after coming to New York in a deadline deal that sent minor league right-handers Michael Fulmer and Luis Cessa back to the Tigers. Although Cespedes dealt with some injuries and wasn’t a major force in the postseason, there’s no question of the impact he made on the Mets last year.
Looking forward, the Mets will hope that Cespedes can continue to provide top-notch overall value. Though he’s not much of an on-base threat, he’s made huge contributions with his power stroke and high-quality corner outfield defense. To be sure, Cespedes was more solid than great in the two preceding seasons his elite 2015 campaign. But with the chance to head back to the open market after the season, he’ll surely have all the incentive necessary to fuel a repeat performance, and the downside here is far less worrisome than those found in many player option scenarios. Plus, New York stands to gain a draft pick through the qualifying offer system if Cespedes triggers his opt-out clause.
The concept also makes good sense as a fall-back for the Roc Nation Sports client. It certainly carries a high-end annual salary, with the larger portion due up front, though the term does fall well shy of expectations. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes had pegged his earning capacity at $140MM over six years entering the winter. It appeared he’d have a good chance of reaching it after Jason Heyward inked a monster, opt-out-laden $184MM deal with the Cubs and Justin Upton went for six years and $132.75MM to the Tigers.
While the overall guarantee pales in comparison to those contracts, Cespedes adds an enormous amount of upside through his own contract. The early opt-out provision means that he’ll have a chance to re-enter the market in just one year’s time in search of yet another big payday. The structure ultimately falls into what we’ve discussed here quite a bit in recent weeks (both in the MLBTR Newsletter and on the MLBTR Podcast), as a supercharged short-term deal that includes a significant guarantee but cabins the team’s risk and leaves plenty of earning potential for the player.
Barring a catastrophe in 2016, it’s hard to imagine that Cespedes won’t hit free agency again next year. There’s an excellent chance he’ll be the top outfielder available next winter in a much less robust market, and he won’t be so old that he won’t be able to cash in.
Cespedes was said to have interest from the White Sox on a three-year deal, though there was no mention of a first-year opt-out in those reports. The Orioles had interest in the five-year, $90MM range before ultimately agreeing to re-sign first baseman Chris Davis. The division-rival Nationals appeared to be the strongest competition in the end, but their reported five-year, $110MM offer (which contained an opt-out provision after the 2017 season) reportedly came with 10 years of heavily deferred payments, thereby reducing the present-day value of the contract to about $77MM.
Ultimately, with what’s been reported thus far, it isn’t surprising that Cespedes chose to take this offer to return to the bright lights of New York. And while there’s plenty of work yet to be done, the Mets will enter the coming season as a popular choice to challenge once again for a trip to the World Series.
Jim Bowden of ESPN.com (via Twitter) first said a deal was close. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (links to Twitter) reported the financial details. Jon Heyman first said a deal was done (Twitter links). Heyman later tweeted the year-to-year breakdown of the deal.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.