Free Agent Stock Watch: Steve Pearce
Players don’t get much more difficult to value than Orioles utilityman Steve Pearce. The 32-year-old was little more than a journeyman for much of his career, but that narrative has shifted — and then continued to change — in recent years.
Let’s pick things up in 2013, when Pearce put up his first above-average offensive season. He slashed a useful .261/.362/.420 that year for Baltimore, but played in only 44 games. That campaign, combined with the similarly useful .254/.321/.437 line he cobbled together in 28 games the previous season, was good enough for the O’s to give him a $850K arbitration salary. However, that salary wasn’t enough to deter the O’s from an early-season DFA in 2014. The Blue Jays claimed him on waivers, but Pearce declined the claim so he could re-sign with Baltimore.
So, what did Pearce do after going back to the O’s? Only this: slash .293/.373/.556, hit 21 home runs, and post five to six WAR (depending upon one’s preferred source) over 383 plate appearances.
That incredible breakout led to a difficult valuation matter in and of itself, as Pearce presented a hard-to-peg arb case. He and the team split the difference between their widely divergent filing numbers ($2MM from the team, $5.4MM from the player), settling on a $3.7MM salary.
The 2014 version of Pearce looked like a mirage in the early going this year. He limped out of the gates, lost power output and playing time, and ultimately spent a lengthy stretch on the DL. But a funny thing happened, again. It’s a short sample of under 100 plate appearances, but Pearce owns a .230/.316/.529 slash and has hit seven home runs in the season’s second half. However one feels about Pearce’s trajectory, his late-season surge lends some credence to the idea that he can approach — if not replicate — his career-best year.
It’s noteworthy that even the newly-resurgent Pearce doesn’t have the on-base numbers that he carried in his sterling ’14 campaign. Looking at the season as a whole, his walk rate has dropped (from 10.4% to 7%, year over year), and that’s certainly a cause for some level of concern. However, he’s also been had some poor luck. Pearce’s groundball-to-flyball rate and home run-per-flyball rates are steady. His line drive rate is slightly up, and he’s making only slightly less hard contact. But his BABIP has plummeted to .243 — well below his career level and nearly 100 points shy of what he carried last season.
Another thing has occurred along the way that is worthy of note. Pearce had long played exclusively in the corner outfield or at first base. He’s generally received solid-to-good ratings by defensive metrics, though there has been quite a bit of variance in a series of short samples. This year, though, the O’s slotted Pearce in at second when a need arose. He’s only spent 121 2/3 innings there, hardly enough to draw definitive conclusions, but both DRS and UZR combined to value him as an approximately average performer. At the very least, he’s shown enough to think he can play some second base in a pinch, even if there probably aren’t any teams that would consider playing him there with any sort of regularity.
Comps are virtually impossible in this case, but there are at least some data points to consider. Platoon outfielders like Nate McLouth, Rajai Davis, and David Murphy have commanded two-year deals at $5MM to $6MM in annual salary in recent markets. Defensively-limited sluggers such as Michael Morse (two years, $16MM), Marlon Byrd (same), Kendrys Morales (two years, $17MM) and Michael Cuddyer (two years, $21MM) have earned more. On the low end of the spectrum, Jeff Baker and Garrett Jones represent a pair of part-time bats that received relatively minor totals of $3.7MM and $7.75MM on two-year deals. Neither player had ever turned in a season even close to Pearce’s 2014 campaign, so in spite of some 2015 struggles, one would imagine Pearce has separated himself from that range.
Each of the above players was heading into at least his age-32 season when signing, and all but Morales and McLouth were even older than that. Pearce will play next season at the age of 33, so while that certainly adds to the reasons that a longer-term contract will be difficult to strike, it does suggest that multiple years are plausible. There are even some recent lower-AAV three-year deals that ought to be considered, perhaps: Cody Ross ($26MM) and James Loney ($21MM). However, both had a stronger walk year than Pearce as well as a history of more consistent performance, making three years a lofty goal.
It’s hard, really, to know what market to place Pearce in. You could view him as a first base/corner outfield/DH option — a market highlighted by John Jaso and Mike Napoli — or he could be grouped him with super-utility players that could start at multiple positions. That group is, of course, headlined by Ben Zobrist and also includes Daniel Murphy, Kelly Johnson, and — perhaps — Chase Utley.
In terms of 2015 production, Pearce certainly isn’t the most exciting name on the market, but the variety of roles he’s capable of filling and the myriad markets in which he could be included make him one of the more difficult free agents to peg this offseason. Definitive contenders may not wish to guarantee him more than a bench spot, but a non-contending or fringe club could look at Pearce and see a player that has homered 35 times over his past 669 plate appearances and hope that, if given regular playing time, he could hit 25 or more in a single season at what could be a relatively bargain rate.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
AL Notes: Lewis, Souza, Travis
Let’s have a look in at a few notes from the American League:
- The Rangers‘ investment in righty Colby Lewis has paid dividends, as Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram writes. While the 36-year-old’s 4.36 ERA is not overly impressive, he is closing in on 200 innings pitched and has been worth about two wins above replacement (give or take). That’s exactly the kind of steady presence the club hoped for after experiencing an incredible rash of recent pitching injuries. Looking ahead to the offseason, Lewis indicated that he wants to keep pitching and will evaluate his options. “We’ll just have to see how this plays out,” he said. “If they want me back, we’ll go from there. It’s still a business. Everybody’s got to be on board with it. It’s going to be a situation ultimately for this front office and a lot of others. I feel like when I’m healthy and enjoying the game, I’m going to eat up innings and try to give you a chance to win every night.” From the team’s perspective, Daniels heaped praise on the veteran and indicated that there is interest in another contract. “We’ll address that at the end of the year,” Daniels said. “But I don’t think anyone here wants Colby pitching in another uniform.”
- Steven Souza‘s 2015 season hasn’t gone quite the way that he and the Rays hoped, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times explains. Souza himself labeled it “a trial,” saying that he hasn’t handled the pressure of being a major trade acquisition as well as he could have. “I was taking a load I didn’t need to take, trying to carry the team and hit a homer every single pitch,” he said. “That’s just not realistic.” As Topkin rightly notes, it’s promising to see the 26-year-old take accountability. And it isn’t as if Souza has had a complete disaster of a season: he owns a 105 wRC+ and has rated well on the basepaths, though his defensive metrics aren’t great. Certainly, there’s plenty of time for him to make good on the club’s investment, and it’s worth noting that Souza has performed well since returning from a fractured hand.
- Another young player who was recently traded, Devon Travis of the Blue Jays, hit the ground running with his new organization. But his year ended prematurely due to exploratory shoulder surgery. As MLB.com’s Gregory Chisholm reports, the rookie ultimately had a cyst drained and a “general cleanup” in the procedure. It does not appear as if anything more serious was identified, which seems to rate as good news. Expectations are that Travis will be ready for a full spring, when he’ll look to build off of an outstanding start to his career.
Francoeur, Phillies Have Mutual Interest In Return
Outfielder Jeff Francoeur says that both he and the Phillies have interest in a continued relationship beyond this season, as CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury reports. A reunion has long seemed a distinct possibility, particularly since the Phillies reportedly pulled him back after an August waiver claim.
There’s still some uncertainty, of course. Francoeur will return to the free agent market this winter, and he could field interest from other clubs. And the organization may wait to allow its new general manager — once hired — make a final call.
“There’s mutual interest in me coming back,” said Francoeur. “They’ve got a lot going on in the front office with the general manager search, with Pete (Mackanin) taking over as manager. Like anything else, there will be an appropriate time to address it, but there’s mutual interest.”
Francoeur has provided more in terms of pop than on-base ability from an offensive standpoint, slashing .257/.287/.427 with 12 home runs over 324 plate appearances. That line is good for only a 91 wRC+. And defensive metrics are not enamored of his work in the corner outfield, where he still possesses a good arm but has below-average range.
While Francoeur’s value is somewhat limited on the field, he did draw interest at the deadline and showed enough for at least one (thus-far unreported) team to put in a waiver claim. And as Salisbury writes, the 31-year-old seems to have impressed the rebuilding organization as a veteran presence in a changing clubhouse. As the Phils look to work in a variety of young outfielders, he could continue to function as a mentor and stabilizing force.
Minor MLB Transactions: 9/23/2015
Here are today’s minor moves …
- The Giants are calling up veteran infielder Kevin Frandsen, reports Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area (Twitter link). As Pavlovic notes, the Giants’ position-player depth has been hit hard by injuries, so Frandsen can provide some depth for the final couple weeks of the season. He’s not on the 40-man roster and will thus require a 40-man move to accommodate his promotion.
- Giants outfielder Daniel Carbonell has cleared outright waivers and been assigned to Triple-A, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets. Carbonell was recently designated for assignment to free up 40-man space. It’s not terribly surprising that he cleared, as he is still in the midst of the four-year, $3.5MM deal that he signed with San Francisco as an international free agent out of Cuba. The 24-year-old advanced to Double-A this year after putting up solid-enough numbers in the lower minors, but sputtered to a .146/.173/.194 slash in 214 plate appearances there.
East Notes: Bogaerts, Parra, Howard, Samuel
22-year-old Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts has emerged as a quality big leaguer this year, and that often means that it’s time to wonder whether and when extension talks will begin. While agent Scott Boras isn’t known for deals that keep his players off the open market, he tells WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford that he is always willing to listen, even for a player with Bogaerts’ pedigree. Boras, who recently met with Boston president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski regarding several current Sox clients, explained: “Look, I always tell every team and every player, we’re an open door. Anything they want to look at and offer, and then the player just has to make his judgments, so we evaluate that.” He praised the organization for its work in helping Bogaerts make an impressive leap this year, though his (justifiably) high opinion of the young infielder also suggests that the price tag would be high. Bogaerts has slashed .325/.356/.429, with seven home runs and ten steals, over 602 plate appearances on the season and will be eligible for arbitration for the first time after 2016.
Here are some more links from around the game’s eastern divisions:
- The Nationals have pursued Orioles outfielder Gerardo Parra previously, including at this year’s trade deadline, and could make a run at him in free agency, James Wagner of the Washington Post writes. Washington ultimately lost the veteran to Baltimore, in part because the Nats wanted the Brewers to help cover his salary. But the team has a potential need for a left-handed-hitting outfielder who could spend time in center field, Wagner notes, and that could make Parra an offseason target. (For what it’s worth, I agree that Parra could be a good fit in D.C., though as I wrote recently, he might well command a significant contract this winter.) From his perspective, Parra says he is pleased to be with the O’s at present but noted that he maintains a high level of respect for Nationals’ GM Mike Rizzo and manager Matt Williams, both of whom he knows from his days with the Diamondbacks.
- Phillies president Andy MacPhail says that he expects slugger Ryan Howard to be with the team next spring, as Jake Kaplan of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports. Despite trading other former core pieces, the club has yet to find a willing taker for enough of the aging slugger’s remaining $35MM in obligations to make a deal. “I don’t know what’s going to happen over the course of the winter, what opportunities may be available for us and for him,” said MacPhail. He continued to add: “But right now, he’s somebody that I think we have a vested interest in getting back healthy and getting him to Clearwater and getting that bat in our lineup that we don’t have without him.”
- The Phillies interviewed first base coach Juan Samuel as a managerial candidate before deciding to name Pete Mackanin the permanent skipper, MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki reports. While Samuel says he’s more than open to returning to Philadelphia in a coaching capacity, Samuel indicated that he’d like to explore the possibility of finding a job running a club. “I’ve been cautious not trying to put my name out there because I just don’t want to [interview] for the sake of doing it,” he said. “If I feel like I have a shot and I think I could be the right guy then, of course, I would do it. I also think that I’m capable of doing it, I’m prepared and I’m ready to do it. I got a taste of it in Baltimore and I enjoyed it. It’s something that is my ultimate goal. Before I hang it up, I would like to get a shot, whether it’s here or somewhere else.”
Quick Hits: GMs, Data, Prospects
ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick takes an interesting look at the changing general managerial landscape around the league. The Brewers just hired thirty-year-old David Stearns to take the helm, of course, and Crasnick notes that several other young, analytically-minded executives are in the hunt for other GM positions. As he explains, however, there is more nuance both to the more youthful newcomers and the more established GM candidates on the market. While there is a cyclical element to front office hiring, says Crasnick, it’s also true that the job has changed significantly, with baseball operations departments growing in size and diversity of functions. Then, there’s the fact that team ownership is increasingly savvy and data-driven as the amount of money involved has skyrocketed. (Crasnick quotes one executive who notes that many owners are very hands-on: “They’ll see something on the MLB Trade Rumors site and call you and say, ‘Why didn’t we know about this?'”) You’ll want to give the piece a full read.
Here are a few more stray notes from around the game:
- While the use of data in baseball is a given at this point, that doesn’t mean it isn’t continuing to evolve. Brian Costa of the Wall Street Journal sat down recently with two key figures in analytics, A’s GM Billy Beane and noted sabermetrician Bill James, for a compelling chat. Both agreed that, while teams often work on fascinating projects behind closed doors, the analytical work done in the public realm still offers the greatest capacity for knowledge advancement because it is subject to broad scrutiny and capable of being built up from a gathering of many minds. Of course, as Beane notes, an increasing number of the people who might once have written in public fora are now employed by teams.
- If you feel it’s been too long since the last exciting new Cuban player popped up on the radar, then check out this piece from MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez. He highlights a 16-year-old known as Lazarito — full name: Lazaro Robersy Armenteros Arango — who has impressive skills and a rising profile. Lazarito is currently in Haiti, where he’s preparing to showcase his talents and continuing the process of achieving free agency. While he still has a lot to prove, Lazarito already stands out in one regard: he’s much younger than most Cuban prospects that are attempting to move into MLB organizations.
- Baseball America is running through the top prospects in each of the minor leagues. It’s an ongoing process, but now would be a good time to take a peek if you’re interested in seeing how recent draft picks and rising international youngsters are progressing, as BA is most of the way through its Rookie ball ratings. Among the players placing highly are Brewers prospects Trent Clark and Gilbert Lara, Brendan Rodgers of the Rockies, and Astros outfielder Kyle Tucker.
Indians Designate Tyler Holt For Assignment
The Indians have designated outfielder Tyler Holt for assignment, according to a club announcement. His 40-man spot was needed for catcher Adam Moore, whose contract was purchased from Triple-A.
Holt, 26, has struggled in fairly minimal major league time over the past two years. In 703 plate appearances at the Triple-A level, though, he has put up an interesting .304/.398/.382 slash line. As that would suggest, Holt doesn’t have much pop — he has just six career MiLB home runs. But he does offer some speed, and has swiped 45 bags in the highest level of the minors.
As for the 31-year-old Moore, who signed as a minor league free agent, this will represent his sixth consecutive season with at least some time on a MLB active roster. He has less than 300 plate appearances over that span, however, without much production. In his 355 trips to the plate this year at Columbus, Moore owns a .282/.328/.397 slash with six home runs.
Poll: Valuing A Bryce Harper Extension
In this week’s MLBTR Mailbag, Steve Adams opined that it might take a 13-year, $375MM offer — or more — for the Nationals to make a serious run at extending outfielder Bryce Harper. That number factors in an estimated $36MM over two seasons of arbitration eligibility (2017-18) and then eleven more years at a $31MM AAV. A contract of that magnitude would be enough to best Giancarlo Stanton‘s 13-year, $325MM deal (which also included a significant opt-out provision).
That’s an immense amount of cash, but Harper is about to cap a 10 WAR season at just 22 years of age. The Scott Boras client will hit the open market before he turns 26 years of age, and would have more or less unprecedented earning capacity if he maintains anything approaching his current level of production.
To put things in some perspective, in addition to the Stanton deal, consider the Tigers’ extension of Miguel Cabrera. At the time, Cabrera was set to enter his age-31 season after a huge 2013 campaign that capped a sustained run of excellence at the plate. He was already controlled for two years and $44MM, but the club added another eight seasons and $248MM on top of that (along with two vesting options at $30MM a pop). The AAV of the extension is $31MM, the same amount that Steve theorized for Harper.
While there’s no indication that Harper and the Nats are talking, or have plans to do so, it’s interesting to consider what it might take to get something done. It’s conceivable, of course, that the parties could consider a different type of deal — Mike Trout‘s six-year, $144.5MM extension provides another model altogether — but a maximum value scenario seems more plausible.
Adding eleven free agent seasons at a $20MM average annual value would push Harper past $250MM. At $24MM annually, the total guarantee would be an even $300MM. Or, if you think that Steve is light, and Harper could take down $35MM a year over his free-agent-eligible campaigns, we’d be staring at a $421MM tab.
Assuming the scenario that Steve proposed — two arb years plus eleven more — what kind of cash do you think would be fair and adequate compensation to get a 13-year deal done? Remember, you can discuss in the comments or join the debate over on Instagram.
How Much Is Harper Worth?
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in the neighborhood of $375MM 35% (3,219)
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between Cabrera and Stanton ($250MM to $325MM) 29% (2,615)
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well over $400MM 19% (1,690)
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less than Miggy (south of $250MM) 18% (1,597)
Total votes: 9,121
Phillies Extend Manager Pete Mackanin
The Phillies have extended the contract of manager Pete Mackanin through next season, according to a team announcement. Philadelphia will also add a club option for the 2017 campaign.
Mackanin stepped in mid-year for the basement-dwelling Phils amidst significant organizational turmoil. When then-skipper Ryne Sandberg resigned in late June, Mackanin was given dugout duties on an interim basis. Not long thereafter, Philadelphia brought in new president Andy MacPhail and ultimately fired GM Ruben Amaro Jr.
While the general manager’s seat remains open, the Phillies apparently decided that they had seen enough positive results from Mackanin to keep him as the top uniformed personnel member. Philly is just 30-46 under Mackanin’s leadership, which isn’t much better than they were with Sandberg, but the team was never expected to contend and has also dealt with the loss of several more key veterans.
Of course, Philadelphia is less concerned with immediate results than it is with development at this stage, and Mackanin has overseen a fairly promising arrival of younger players. Having already helped to welcome key names such as Maikel Franco and Aaron Nola to the big leagues, Mackanin will be responsible for overseeing their continued maturation and the ongoing introduction of youthful talent onto the big league roster.
“The Phillies are pleased that Pete has accepted the position of manager for the 2016 season,” MacPhail said in a statement. “We believe that Pete is the best fit for the role. Since assuming the interim manager position in June, Pete has developed an excellent rapport with our players and has also connected well with the media and our fans. Equally as important is his eagerness to take on the challenge of rebuilding the team and further developing our players. We look forward to his contributions.”
Mackanin is a veteran baseball man, but this will be his first non-interim managerial stint. He has previously spent time as a stop-gap skipper for the Pirates and Reds. Before his more recent turn as the Phillies’ third base coach, Mackanin was the team’s bench coach over 2009-12.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Vesting Options Update
With the regular season nearing its end, we have some clarity on several vesting clauses around the game. Let’s take a look at where things stand …
- Chase Utley, Dodgers: There’s no chance that Utley’s $15MM option — the first of three in succession — will vest. (He’d need 110 plate appearances over the final two weeks of the season to reach 500.) Instead, Utley will become subject to a team option — the value of which floats between $5MM and $11MM based upon days spent on the DL. The precise details have yet to be reported, so it’s not yet clear how much it would cost Los Angeles to control the veteran. Neither is it known whether the team would have interest; Utley has a mediocre .200/.296/.347 slash over 108 plate appearances with the Dodgers.
- Jonathan Papelbon, Nationals: This one was taken care of as part of the deal that sent Papelbon to D.C. from the Phillies. Papelbon helped facilitate the swap by agreeing to take $11MM to throw next year for the Nats. He was already likely to reach the requirements for his option to vest at $13MM, but that agreement greased the wheels on a move he desperately wanted and removed any doubt as to his payday.
- David Ortiz, Red Sox: Big Papi has blown well past the 425 plate appearances he needed for his 2016 option to vest, though he’ll also need to pass an offseason physical. The question now is the value of the option. It has already reached $15MM, but would go higher if he makes his 600th trip to the dish. In that case, it will go to $16MM (or, if it’s more than that, the value of the qualifying offer). Ortiz has earned it, with another huge season and successful run at 500 career home runs.
- Joaquin Benoit, Padres: Benoit needed to finish 55 games for to his $8MM option to vest. That can’t happen, so it’ll turn into a team option. It’s a fair sum for a reliever, but Benoit continues to put up strong results at 38 years of age.
- Marlon Byrd, Giants: The 38-year-old sits at 502 plate appearances. He needs 48 more the rest of the way to reach 550 total, which, in combination with those accumulated last year, would be sufficient for his $8MM option to vest for 2016. With 13 games left, it’s still possible that he could reach the needed total, but that’ll depend heavily on playing time — and San Francisco may well not wish to be on the hook for that kind of cash.
- Santiago Casilla, Giants: As MLBTR reported, Casilla needs 55 games finished for his $7.5MM option to vest for 2016. The situation is somewhat similar to Byrd’s. With 49 finished games in the bank so far, it’s still possible — but, perhaps, unlikely — for Casilla to reach the necessary tally.
- Nori Aoki, Giants: Due to injuries, the outfielder is stalled well shy of the 550 plate appearances he needed to turn a $5.5MM club option into one of the mutual variety. That could still be an appealing price tag for a player who performed well when healthy.
- Jonny Gomes, Royals: Gomes needs 325 plate appearances for a $3MM club option for 2016 to become guaranteed. He only has 246, and hasn’t been used much in Kansas City, so that’s not happening.
We already know that Cliff Lee won’t achieve the innings totals required for his 2016 option to vest, as the Phillies southpaw hasn’t pitched all season and is attempting to recover from a torn left flexor tendon without undergoing surgery. Brandon League also hasn’t pitched this season and has been released by the Dodgers, so he won’t reach the games-finished total required to allow his 2016 player option to vest.