Rockies Willing To Listen On Tulowitzki, Gonzalez
The Rockies have told other teams that they are willing to consider trade scenarios involving their two best players, Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.
While the likelihood of a deal remains rather slight, and neither player is being shopped around, the report does indicate that Colorado is much more open to moving one of its stars than it had been previously. Notably, Rosenthal says that the Rockies are telling clubs that they will not accept a return that does not provide fair value for the healthy production levels of both players.
Needless to say, there is a large gap between a theoretical willingness to trade a player and a realistic chance of a deal getting done. In this case, that divide may be wider than usual. While Tulowitzki is arguably the very best shortstop in baseball, he has missed long stretches of time in recent years with hip, groin, and wrist surgeries, along with various other maladies. And he is due $20MM per year from 2015-2019, plus $14MM in 2020 and a $4MM buyout in 2021.
Much the same story holds for Gonzalez, who has had five-win seasons but had both knee and finger surgery last year. Then there is the fact that he put up just a .238/.292/.431 batting line when he was in the lineup last year, a fall-off that can in large part be pinned on his health issues but which nevertheless must be considered. Gonzalez is owed $53MM over the next three seasons, a steal if he’s healthy but a big problem if he is not.
Athletics Will Not Trade Donaldson, Willing To Listen On Pitchers
The Athletics do not intend to deal away star third baseman Josh Donaldson despite speculation that he could be made available, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports. That confirms what Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported (via Twitter) the day after the club’s season ended. However, the team will be willing to listen to trade interest in pitchers such as Jeff Samardzija and Scott Kazmir, according to Rosenthal.
Donaldson has emerged as one of the best third basemen and most valuable players in the game. While he is undoubtedly a bargain as a Super Two player with four more years of control, he will not be cheap. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects that Donaldson will land $4.5MM this year, and that number will only continue to rise.
Donaldson’s rising cost led to suggestions that Oakland may consider dealing him. But while he would undoubtedly bring back a huge return, his departure would leave a gaping hole in any plans of near-term contention. As Rosenthal notes, A’s GM Billy Beane believes the team is still primed to reach the postseason next year.
As for Oakland’s staff, deals involving pitchers on expiring contracts are obviously more palatable, though Rosenthal hastens to add that the A’s are not shopping anyone and mentions that a trade deadline deal (if the team falls out of contention) could be the likelier outcome. Both Samardzija (projected $9.5MM arb salary) and Kazmir ($11MM salary with an additional $2MM luxury tax hit for his signing bonus) are cheap for their recent results, and the former in particular would be a popular trade target. In fact, MLBTR’s Steve Adams explained in his recent outlook for the A’s offseason that a deal involving Samardzija or Kazmir could make a good bit of sense.
Angels Acquire Cesar Ramos
The Angels have acquired lefty Cesar Ramos from the Rays in exchange for righty Mark Sappington, Los Angeles announced. This mark’s the day’s second swap for the Halos.
Ramos, 30, has spent most of his time in the pen but did make seven starts in 2014 for Tampa. He ultimately threw 82 2/3 frames of 3.70 ERA ball, with 7.2 K/9 against 4.2 BB/9. Ramos has generally been better against lefties, but does not have huge platoon splits over his career. He was, however, much more effective working out of the pen.
MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects that Ramos will take home $1.3MM in his second year of arbitration eligibility, making him a cheap and controllable add for an Angels club that has rather a bare cupboard in terms of left-handed relievers. That he can provide swingman capability as well is a nice bonus.
Sappington, meanwhile, is a 23-year-old right-hander who came into the 2014 season rated as the Halos’ fifth-best prospect by Baseball America. He took a big step back, however, and struggled mightily in a starting role. A demotion and mid-season move to the bullpen revitalized Sappington, however, as Mike DiGiovanna wrote recently for Baseball America. A long-term move to the pen had always seemed a distinct possibility, and Sappington’s big fastball and biting slider make him a potentially valuable power arm. (Over 32 relief frames last year at High-A, Sappington struck out 49 and walked ten.)
NL Notes: Morales, Cuddyer, Morse, Romo, Tomas
Free agent lefty Franklin Morales, most recently of the Rockies, has moved his representation to the Boras Corporation, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports on Twitter. The 28-year-old had a rough 2014. He put up a 5.37 ERA over 142 1/3 innings, including 22 starts, while striking out a below-average (against his career) 6.3 batters and walking 4.1 per nine.
Here’s more from Colorado and the rest of the National League:
- The Rockies‘ extension of a qualifying offer to free agent outfielder Michael Cuddyer was the big surprise on the QO front. Colorado’s rationale for the move, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets, is to remain flexible to trade from its outfield depth. Cuddyer, meanwhile, had hoped to land a three-year deal, per Rosenthal, and the offer makes that a more difficult proposition. In my view, it makes little sense to create outfield depth to trade from by adding a contract with negative trade value; the move seems irrational unless the club has good reason to believe that Cuddyer will turn down the QO.
- While teams can always simply price in the loss of a draft choice in assessing how much to offer a compensation-bound player, the presence of the QO can in some cases be a significant enough deterrent that it keeps a team out of the market altogether. That appears to be the case for the Mets vis-a-vis Cuddyer, as Marc Carig of Newday reports that New York had been quite interested in pursuing the veteran but has little interest in giving up the 15th overall pick in doing so.
- The Mets may, however, be more willing to pursue non-QO-bound Michael Morse, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post. Morse would represent an option in the outfield and, perhaps, part-time platoon mate at first.
- Giants righty Sergio Romo hopes to re-sign with San Francisco, he told MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (via host Jim Bowden). But the former closer is looking forward to testing the market, and should draw plenty of interest.
- Cuban slugger Yasmany Tomas worked out at third base in a tryout yesterday with the Diamondbacks, according to a tweet from his agent Jay Alou Jr. The 24-year-old had been talked about primarily as a corner outfielder. Chris Cotillo of MLBDailyDish.com first tweeted that Tomas had spent time with the D’backs.
Diamondbacks Outright Jordan Pacheco
Here are the day’s outrights and minor moves:
- The Diamondbacks have outrighted catcher/corner infielder Jordan Pacheco, per the MLB.com transactions page. Entering his age-29 season next year, Pacheco has not produced at the plate outside of a Coors Field-aided run in 2012, when he managed a 93 OPS+. He is, however, a fairly versatile player, as he is capable of playing at least passable defense behind the dish and in the corner infield. Over 165 plate appearances split between the Rockies and D’backs last year, Pacheco slashed .255/.299/.333.
Korean Pitcher Kwang-hyun Kim Posted Today
Korean lefty Kwang-hyun Kim was posted today by his KBO club, SK Wyverns, according to Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com (via Twitter). The posting was expected, though its timing was unknown.
Since Kim is coming from the KBO, rather than Japan’s NPB, he will be subject to the old posting rules rather than the modified MLB-NPB process put in place at last year. As former MLBTR writer Ben Nicholson-Smith explained back in November of 2012, with regard to Hyun-jin Ryu, MLB clubs will participate in a blind bidding process. The KBO club will then have the chance to decide whether the high offer is enough to let the player go. If so, the KBO team allows the player to negotiate with the high-bidding MLB club.
If a deal is reached within the allotted 30-day window, the KBO team receives the posting sum; if not, no money changes hands and the player stays with the Korean club. MLB teams have four days to submit their bid from the date of posting, meaning that bids must be in by this coming Saturday.
Alfonso Soriano Announces Retirement
Longtime big leaguer Alfonso Soriano has annunced his retirement from the game, reports Hector Gomez of Dominican outlet Listin Diario (via Twitter). The 38-year-old played in parts of 16 MLB seasons, including thirteen as a full-time regular.
Soriano was once one of the most consistent power threats in the game. Between 2002 and 2013, Soriano averaged 624 trips to the plate per season, slashing .273/.324/.511. He hit 385 home runs (32 per year) and stole 243 bags (20 a season) over that stretch.
Soriano appeared in seven straight All Star games (2002-08). While generally subpar defensive marks hurt his overall value, Soriano was ultimately worth just under 40 fWAR in his career, though he checked in at less than 30 rWAR.
The Dominican native started and ended his career in pinstripes, joining the Yankees after an early-career stint in Japan. He was later dealt to the Rangers and then on to the Nationals, where he moved from second to the outfield, and ultimately signed an eight-year, $136MM deal with the Cubs.
That massive contract had its ups and downs, but Soriano ultimately swung an above average bat in every year except for a rough 2009. He spent the tail end of the deal back in New York after a deadline deal, delivering an excellent stretch of play late in 2013. But he struggled to get it going last year, and was ultimately cut loose by the Yanks in mid-season.
Details On Howie Kendrick’s No-Trade Clause
Angels infielder Howie Kendrick‘s extension contains a clause permitting him to block trades to four teams this year. As Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports on Twitter, Kendrick can decline a swap that would send him to the Blue Jays, Mets, Rays, or Marlins.
The 31-year-old second baseman has been mentioned as a trade candidate as he enters the final year of the extension he signed before the 2012 season. Kendrick is owed $9.5MM this year before hitting the open market.
Kendrick could hold appeal to several teams given his reasonable price tag and lack of a long-term commitment. Of course, the Jays, Mets, and Marlins are all clubs that seem poised (on paper, at least) to pursue additions up the middle, so his no-trade choices could well have an impact on his market.
For the contending Halos, the possibility of a deal seems tied primarily to the desire to open up payroll space. After all, Kendrick has produced at or above the league average rate in every year but his first. And he has been a consistently strong producer in recent years: since 2012, Kendrick has averaged 594 plate appearances and a .292/.336/.410 line and has been good for about twenty combined homers and steals per campaign.
With solid defensive marks, Kendrick has been a consistently above-average player on the whole. And a jump in defensive metrics last year thrust him into the four-to-five WAR range. That is an appealing total package, particularly when his good record of durability and limited commitment are factored in.
Offseason Outlook: Washington Nationals
The Nationals have little in the way of glaring needs and could seek to defend their NL East crown with relatively few moves. But some big-picture issues are now squarely in focus, and significant change could occur for the first time in several years.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Ryan Zimmerman, 3B/1B/OF: $76MM through 2019 (including $2MM buyout of 2020 option) + $10MM personal services contract over five years post-playing career
- Jayson Werth, OF: $63MM through 2017
- Gio Gonzalez, SP: $23.5MM through 2016 (including $500K buyout of 2017 option)
- Jordan Zimmermann, SP: $16.5MM through 2015
- Ian Desmond, SS: $11MM through 2015
- Nate McLouth, OF: $5.75MM through 2015 (including $750K buyout of 2016 option)
- Matt Thornton, RP: $3.5MM through 2015
- *Bryce Harper, OF: $1MM plus $1.25MM in prorated bonus through 2015 (Harper signed MLB contract out of 2010 draft that left undecided whether he could opt into arbitration; Harper would qualify as Super Two with 2.159 years of service; matter will be resolved by negotiation or grievance)
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses)
- Kevin Frandsen, UT (5.151): $1.2MM
- Tyler Clippard, RP (5.148): $9.3MM
- Jerry Blevins, RP (5.081): $2.2MM
- Doug Fister, SP (5.058): $11.4MM
- Ross Detwiler, RP/SP (5.002): $3.3MM
- Craig Stammen, RP (4.160): $2.1MM
- Drew Storen, RP (4.140): $5.8MM
- Stephen Strasburg, SP (4.118): $8.1MM
- Wilson Ramos, C (4.047): $3.2MM
- Jose Lobaton, C (3.138): $1.2MM
- Danny Espinosa, 2B/SS (3.113): $2.3MM
- *Bryce Harper, OF (2.159): $2.5MM (see above)
- Non-tender candidates: Frandsen
Contract Options
- Adam LaRoche*, 1B: $15MM mutual option ($2MM buyout)
- Rafael Soriano*, RP: $14MM club option(no buyout)
- Denard Span*, OF: $9MM club option ($500K buyout)
- Anthony Rendon, 2B/3B: club option of unknown value (signed MLB contract after 2011 draft)
*The Nationals have officially exercised Span’s option while declining the options on LaRoche and Soriano.
Free Agents
Another NL East crown, another gut-wrenching loss in the NLDS. That scenario pains Nationals fans, but probably does little to dissuade GM Mike Rizzo from his path. After all, most of his recent moves have turned out swimmingly for Washington. Brimming with talent at nearly every position, most of it still in prime years, the Nats would undoubtedly be among the favorites to take the 2015 World Series even if they did not make a single outside addition to the roster.
But as three straight years of disappointment – twice in the playoffs, once in failing to make them – have demonstrated, no assembly of talent is good enough. That alone is motivation for change. More significant, though, is the ticking of the service clocks of several core players who have driven the most successful run of any Washington, DC-based MLB team since the mid-1920s Senators.
As always, payroll is an important factor as well. Owner Mark Lerner said early in 2014 that the club was “beyond tapped out” in terms of player salary, but it is already on track to top last year’s nearly $137MM Opening Day tab. As things stand for 2015, the club has about $94MM in guarantees on the books before adding in the approximately $50MM in arb commitments outlined above. Of course, public statements must be taken with a grain of salt, particularly for a team with an ongoing TV rights fee dispute (the results of which could make a big difference in spending capacity) and many potential extension discussions to be had. But it remains to be seen what kind of flexibility Rizzo will have to work with.
Ultimately, the Nationals could just plug needs while exploring a few extension scenarios. Or the club could pursue bold, opportunistic moves that could serve the present while setting things up down the line. Let’s canvas the roster to identify the areas of opportunity and pressure points.
The outfield is the most straightforward area. Bryce Harper and Jayson Werth are locks for the two corner spots. And center fielder Denard Span’s $9MM option is certain to be exercised after a quality season from the 30-year-old. Youngster Michael Taylor is waiting in the wings up the middle, and the more advanced Steven Souza seems ready to contribute in a corner role, and Nate McLouth is set to return from a disappointing, injury-shortened first season in D.C. That group offers sufficient flexibility that trade possibilities cannot be discounted; the likeliest scenario, perhaps, would involve Souza going as part of a deal to address another area, though there could be some temptation to explore a trade involving Span to take advantage of a weak free agent crop of center fielders. (Of course, there are not necessarily that many teams in position to aggressively pursue new center fielders, either.)
In the infield, Wilson Ramos remains entrenched behind the plate, with Jose Lobaton locked in as the back-up. And Ian Desmond is unquestionably set to play short, though he will be entering his final year of team control. One of several still-youthful veterans who will reach free agency after the coming season, Desmond appears the most likely to ink a long-term extension. (Desmond has said he expects to stay with the team for the long run, though he reportedly turned down a seven-year extension last offseason that would have guaranteed him somewhere in the range of $85MM to $98MM.)
Ryan Zimmerman figures to move from his natural third base across to first, taking over for Adam LaRoche. Zimmerman’s inability to stick at third represents a significant downgrade in his value, though his bat is still solid and he has shown some promise of playing a serviceable corner outfield if need be. As for LaRoche, his $15MM mutual option seemed a reasonable value, but he just did not fit on the roster and will be allowed to walk (unencumbered by a qualifying offer) as a free agent.
The Nats would surely prefer to be weighing their options at first while fielding Zimmerman at third and emerging star Anthony Rendon at second. But that is not to be, and the resulting situation is not without its flexibility. Rendon’s bat is good enough to play anywhere on the diamond, and he showed the ability to add value with his glove at both second and third over the course of 2014. Washington will probably angle to add a player to take over at the keystone, keeping Rendon at his natural third base for the long haul, but could jump on a third baseman if the right opportunity presented itself. (The team was said to have interest in Adrian Beltre at the trade deadline, and I believe it could likewise be interested in an option like Chase Headley if he could be had on a short-term contract, though that seems unlikely.)
If the Nationals go looking for a second baseman, while keeping their eye on third, what are their options? The only internal option – former starter Danny Espinosa — is not reliable in the batter’s box against righties, though he could theoretically form a very good left-handed side of a platoon. His offensive upside, defensive prowess, young age, and relatively low cost makes him a player that the Nationals will not give away in trade, but neither is he a full-time option for a contender.
The free agent market is largely unappealing, being headed by players such as Asdrubal Cabrera (who had a late run with the Nats after the trade deadline) and Jed Lowrie. I do not see Rizzo committing to that kind of player on a lengthy deal, though he could jump on a shorter pact if it becomes an option. (Rizzo was willing, for instance, to give two years to Nate McLouth as a fourth outfielder, and could theoretically add a second baseman who would eventually become more of a utility option.) Bounceback candidate Stephen Drew could make sense, as the righty-masher would pair nicely with Espinosa.
There are more intriguing names that will at least potentially be available on the international scene. Korean star Jung-ho Kang could be posted, while no fewer than three well-regarded Cuban second baggers — Jose Fernandez, Hector Olivera, and Andy Ibanez (links to posts)– have (or may have) left their home island with intentions of ultimately landing MLB contracts. It is hard to know at this point what level of interest the Nationals, or other teams, will have in that group, however, and it remains to be seen precisely which of those players will be ready not only to sign but also to contribute on the MLB level in 2015.
Another possibility, of course, is for the Nationals to explore the trade market. Ben Zobrist of the Rays and Howie Kendrick of the Angels would seem to be fits, if they are made available, while Brandon Phillips is at least a hypothetical possibility if the Reds eat a good bit of salary. Alternatively, the Nationals could look to kill two birds with one stone. The team has indicated it is interested in adding a young shortstop to serve as depth and provide an alternative if a long-term deal cannot be reached with Desmond. While there may be an element of posturing there, the fact is that the system lacks any plausible younger options at the spot. A player such as Brad Miller of the Mariners or Didi Gregorius of the Diamondbacks could slot in at second while also serving as a long-term shortstop option. (Again, it does not hurt that Espinosa constitutes a platoon option to both of those left-handed hitters.)
What could the Nationals deal to bring such a return? Other than Souza — who could be a long-term piece but who does not have a path to a starting job for some time — pitching seems the likeliest area. The Nats could dangle any number of their better young arms, depending upon the return and the team’s overall strategy, and Rizzo has shown a willingness to use his prospects to barter. Among the prospect crop, high-upside Lucas Giolito, top-100 arm A.J. Cole, an emerging (and perhaps underappreciated) Blake Treinen, and several younger hurlers all hold appeal.
Of course, it bears noting that last year’s two most effective starters, Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister, are each playing on expiring contracts. If an extension is not to be had, then the possibility of movement must at least be considered. Zimmermann, in particular, spiked his performance level last year after turning down a reported five-year, $85MM extension offer. While it would be tough to deal away the homegrown star, it could make sense if he brought back a useful big league piece with greater control rights. The Mariners (Miller) and Red Sox (Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts) would presumably have both the interest in the arm and the types of chips that would interest the Nats, though it is far from clear that a mutually agreeable swap could be arranged. Chances remain fairly low that any of the Nats’ starters will be dealt, though if a blockbuster did go down, I would expect the Nationals to immediately become a player for a high-upside arm of some kind in free agency.
In all likelihood, last year’s front five will remain in place. In addition to Zimmermann and Fister, Stephen Strasburg could also be approached about an extension, though it’s not clear how much traction can be expected given that he is represented by Scott Boras. Otherwise, the team will probably hope for a rebound from Gio Gonzalez (though his 3.57 ERA was hardly poor, and was backed by a 3.02 FIP) while crossing its fingers that Tanner Roark does not turn into a pumpkin.
Of course, five is never enough pitchers for a full season. A significant free agent addition seems unlikely unless a trade or injury intervenes, though a minor league depth signing would make good sense. First up among internal options may be Treinen, the righty with a huge sinker who impressed in spot duty in 2014. Ross Detwiler is still under club control, though he has occupied an increasingly marginal position and could be trade fodder. Otherwise, Taylor Jordan will look to return from season-ending elbow surgery to remove bone chips and the Nats will continue to filter up a fairly promising set of young arms.
The bullpen, too, could carry forward in much the same form or could see some changes. Rafael Soriano is out at closer, and is all but certain to find a new home. Drew Storen, with Tyler Clippard behind him, remain the likeliest late-inning pairing, though this could theoretically be the year that the rumors come true and one is dealt. (Certainly, they will not be cheap to keep in tandem.) It would also not be surprising to see the Nationals try to add to a strong group; indeed, MLBTR’s Steve Adams suggests the team as a reasonable bidder for top relief arm David Robertson, and I agree that is a possible area that the Nats could look to upgrade — as they did two years ago with Soriano — given its lack of obvious areas for improvement. Otherwise, Craig Stammen and Aaron Barrett should form a solid middle-inning grouping, with Treinen also potentially a factor in the pen. Some combination of Jerry Blevins, Matt Thornton, Detwiler, and Xavier Cedeno will do the left-handed relieving. At least one right-handed addition would make sense, and the club could consider pursuing a solid veteran such as Burke Badenhop or Casey Janssen to add some solid depth.
Once again, 2015 provides ample opportunity for Rizzo to get creative. His sweet spot has been high-value, above-average regulars (Span, Fister, Blevins) and buy-low, high-ceiling prospects (Rendon, Cole, Giolito, Erick Fedde). I expect that he will again go hunting for value, while preparing for unexpected opportunities to arise, as he figures out how to fill the hole at second and deal with the running service clock of some of the team’s best players. But the pressure is on now to win while also keeping the window open for a still-young roster, and Rizzo will need to do it without trusted lieutenant Bryan Minniti. In a way, it’s his greatest challenge yet.
Cubs To Pursue Russell Martin
The Cubs are preparing to make a run at top free agent catcher Russell Martin, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports. That does not come as a significant surprise given Chicago’s apparent spending plans and its current roster alignment; indeed, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently predicted that the Cubs would ultimately land Martin.
Of course, the Cubs are not the only club with significant interest in Martin, who had an outstanding 2014 campaign and stands alone on the starting catching market. As Heyman notes, the Dodgers, Pirates, Blue Jays, and even Red Sox have been connected to Martin in rumors or by way of analysis. And the list of plausible landing spots is probably longer than that.
At present, Welington Castillo sits atop the Chicago backstop depth chart, with John Baker in reserve. That unit ranked fourth from the bottom last year in terms of fWAR, with Castillo taking a big step back in terms of his offensive output. After two straight years of above-average production at the plate, to go with BABIP tallies that landed just under the .350 mark, Castillo managed only a .237/.296/.389 line over 417 plate appearances, in 2014. And both Stat Corner and Baseball Prospectus are down on his work behind the dish.
Castillo did register double-digit home runs (13) for the first time last year, and remains a valuable young player. But there is little doubt that Martin would represent a significant upgrade.