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Phillies “Looking At” Stephen Strasburg

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While the level of interest isn’t entirely clear, the Phillies are at least considering a move for veteran starter Stephen Strasburg, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). The organization is said to be “looking at” plucking a star from the division-rival Nationals for a second consecutive winter.

There are many other possibilities for Strasburg, who wrapped up an outstanding (and rather redemptive) season in D.C. before opting out of his contract in favor of the open market. As Heyman notes, there’s still a sense that Strasburg could well line up again with the Nats. But many of the game’s highest-spending organizations have already shown interest as well.

Strasburg would be a big addition to any rotation, but he’d be of particular import to a Phillies staff that was filled with struggles last year. Like many other teams, the Phils are looking both for impact and reliability. Stras has consistently delivered the former … at least, when healthy. Concerns with his durability are in some regards overstated. He’s fresh off of a dominant and complete season at 31 years of age. Since returning from Tommy John surgery, Strasburg has averaged 28 starts and 168 innings annually (including his infamous 2012 shutdown campaign).

While the Phillies have indicated trepidation at coughing up draft compensation to add a free agent, that’s simply the requisite ante to sit at the high-stakes table. Strasburg is a good enough player that teams can mostly ignore the lost draft capital. That’s particularly true now that he has thoroughly erased any doubts (as unjustified as they were in the first place) over his big-game capabilities. Recently crowned the World Series MVP, Strasburg has passed every test thrown at him in the postseason with flying colors. In 55 1/3 career playoff frames, he owns a sparkling 1.46 ERA with 11.5 K/9 and 1.3 BB/9.

Indians Re-Sign James Hoyt

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After being dropped from the Indians’ 40-man roster in advance of the non-tender deadline, righty James Hoyt has landed back with the Cleveland organization. Full terms aren’t known, but the contract does come with a MLB roster spot.

The 33-year-old Hoyt hasn’t yet proven he can deliver results in the majors, but has had no trouble getting swings and misses from big-league hitters. He has averaged a 16.8% swinging-strike rate at the game’s highest level, allowing him to carry an excellent 104:26 K/BB ratio over eighty frames. Hoyt has also allowed 14 long balls in that span.

It’ll be interesting to see whether the Indians can coax some quality MLB frames out of the slider-heavy hurler. He spent the 2019 season shifting from a four-seam to a two-seam heater — at least, as identified by pitch-tracking software — which may have helped him to limit International League hitters to three home runs in 42 Triple-A frames. But Hoyt did go on to surrender a pair of dingers in his 8 1/3 September innings in the majors.

Blue Jays Checked In On Michael Pineda

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The Blue Jays have at least checked in on right-hander Michael Pineda, according to Scott Mitchell of TSN (Twitter link). The precise level of interest isn’t known.

If the Blue Jays are indeed taking an aggressive stance on open-market arms, Pineda would be a good place to start. He’s not expected to secure anything like the big money destined for the very top options, so inking him shouldn’t be overly committing. At the same time, Pineda comes with a blend of recent durability, relative youth, and perhaps some remaining upside that would make good sense for the still-building Jays. That combination will also hold appeal to many other organizations.

We haven’t heard much in the way of early development in the Pineda market. Perhaps some teams will write him off due to his recent PED-related suspension. But it’s otherwise possible to imagine rather broad interest, so a dedicated early pursuit might help the Toronto organization pull off the sometimes-difficult task of luring the hurler north of the border. The Jays are surely still interested in adding multiple rotation pieces even after landing Chase Anderson, so the club is also involved in the markets of quite a few other established starters.

Rangers Out On Zack Wheeler

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The Rangers have been bumped from the bidding on righty Zack Wheeler, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. The market is beginning to move quickly for the former Mets hurler.

With the Texas organization out of the hunt, there’s greater clarity in the likely outcomes. Right now, the Phillies, Reds, and White Sox are by all accounts pushing hard to land Wheeler. The status of other interested clubs — the Blue Jays, Angels, and Twins — is still up in the air.

What’s next for the Rangers isn’t known. Grant surveys the remaining options but says it’s not yet clear whether the team has interest in the next level of rotation options. Running down the line on our ranking of the top 50 free agents, lefties Madison Bumgarner and Hyun-Jin Ryu are the top remaining alternatives. Michael Pineda remains an interesting potential target. It’s also possible the Rangers could go for a sturdy veteran such as Cole Hamels or Dallas Keuchel. And there are quite a few alternatives yet further down the market spectrum.

Red Sox Re-Sign Marco Hernandez, Josh Osich

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The Red Sox announced today that they have re-signed infielder Marco Hernandez and lefty Josh Osich. Both had been non-tendered in advance of Monday’s deadline.

Both players are headed back onto the 40-man roster. The reason for this approach, as Alex Speier of the Boston Globe explains on Twitter, was to enable the sides to agree to a different contract structure than would have been possible in the arbitration context.

Osich gets a split contract with a $850K MLB salary, according to Speier (Twitter link). He had projected to earn $1MM via arbitration after being claimed by the Red Sox from the White Sox in October. The 31-year-old worked to a 4.66 ERA in 67 2/3 MLB innings last year, recording 8.1 K/9 against 2.0 BB/9 but coughing up 15 home runs.

As for Hernandez, whose re-signing was reported yesterday, he’ll have a split deal with a MLB rate of $650K MLB (also via Speier, on Twitter). He hasn’t done much damage with the bat in limited opportunities at the game’s highest level, but the organization obviously still thinks the versatile defender could be a valuable roster piece. Hernandez, who hopes to put his shoulder issues behind him in 2020, had projected to earn $700K via arbitration.

Pitching Market Chatter: Wheeler, Cole, Kluber, Jays

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There has been some early action on the starting pitching market. Jake Odorizzi accepted a qualifying offer from the Twins, filling one of their openings on a limited commitment. The Cardinals brought back Adam Wainwright. Chase Anderson went to the Blue Jays in a trade. The Rangers made Kyle Gibson their annual surprise three-year contract recipient. Those moves helped set the stage for some of the biggest free agents, who are now engaged with multiple suitors. We’ve recently covered the latest on hot commodity Zack Wheeler and high-end veteran Stephen Strasburg, who has held meetings with the Dodgers and Yankees.

Here’s more from other areas of the market:

  • Speaking of Wheeler, it seems that a deal is indeed on the cusp of coming together. Ken Rosenthal said as much in an appearance on MLB Network (Twitter link), noting that we could even see an agreement struck today. Rosenthal believes it’s a three-team race between the Phillies, White Sox, and Reds, though he cautions that the bidding isn’t fully limited to those organizations. We’ll be keeping a close watch on Wheeler.
  • The Yankees are clearly a legitimate player for top free agent Gerrit Cole, though agent Scott Boras is certain to demand that the New York powerhouse pay a premium to woo the West Coast native. Yesterday’s initial sit-down went well, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter), though it’s hard to divine much of real import given that the sides didn’t talk cold hard cash. Sources tell Heyman that “the dollars will be there,” which seems to be an indication that the Yankees are fully prepared to make Cole the richest pitcher ever to play the game. But whether the club will cast its valuations aside in a full-blown bidding war, should one break out, remains to be seen.
  • We’ve heard a lot of chatter surrounding a certain Indians star shortstop, but relatively little on the club’s former (and future?) ace starter. That may not reflect the real state of play within and among front offices. ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan cites multiple executives for the proposition that the Cleveland organization is working harder on structuring deals for Corey Kluber than in sorting out a blockbuster involving Francisco Lindor. As we explained in ranking Kluber 17th among the winter’s trade candidates, it’s all but impossible to know what to expect from the former Cy Young winner. Kluber ought to be well rested after a freak arm fracture ruined his 2019 season, but he had struggled in early action before the injury. He’s not cheap — $17.5MM in 2020 and $18MM via club option for one more year — but would be an outright steal at those rates if he’s anything like his usual self upon his return.
  • The Blue Jays are “as aggressive as any team” in pursuit of open-market starters, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). It’s anyone’s guess just how to interpret that characterization. The Toronto faithful are by now a bit jaded at such assurances, having grown frustrated with a string of losing seasons and minimal investment in the MLB roster. Perhaps this is all part of the setup for explaining that the club just couldn’t quite get a deal done despite its best efforts. Then again, there’s plenty of reason to think the Jays can and should be prepared to re-enter the fray in a big way. The club has cleaned up its future balance sheets and graduated many of its best prospects to the majors. Perhaps the Toronto front office will end up making significant rotation improvements over the course of the winter.

Phillies Actively Pursuing Zack Wheeler

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There’s momentum in the market for righty Zack Wheeler, who is reportedly already sitting on a nine-figure offer. The Phillies are now perhaps the strongest pursuer of the 29-year-old, Buster Olney of ESPN.com reports.

With the Philadelphia organization firmly entering the picture, Wheeler is sitting in an enviable position. There are a host of other teams still in the picture. Olney cites the Reds, White Sox, and Rangers as remaining involved. We’ve previously heard of intense interest from the Twins, who were reportedly still in the picture as of yesterday.

In another report this morning, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter) suggests that the Reds and White Sox are the other teams most clearly in the mix with the Phillies. But it’s still a fluid bidding situation, so far as is known publicly. Indeed, Rosenthal adds that the Angels “have shown real interest,” though their status at the moment isn’t clear.

This could be building into a perfect storm for Wheeler, whose big arm and relative youth hold obvious appeal. It seems teams have come to terms with his history of arm issues and are banking on a two-year track record of durability. In our ranking of the top 50 free agents, we predicted widespread interest to drive Wheeler to a five-year, $100MM deal with the Phillies. It now seems he will top that guarantee; Olney even floats the possibility that a team will end up offering a sixth year to land the in-demand hurler.

Dodgers Recently Met With Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon

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8:48pm: In addition to Rendon, the Dodgers have met with free-agent right-hander Stephen Strasburg, Jorge Castillo of the L.A. Times reports. The Dodgers are currently set to lose Hyun-Jin Ryu and Rich Hill to free agency, and while they have internal options to replace them, adding Strasburg to the fold would represent a seismic upgrade to an already strong rotation mix.

Like Rendon, Strasburg can be reasonably expected to come with major luxury tax implications, as he’s viewed as a near-lock to secure a $30MM+ annual salary on the heels of perhaps his finest season. The former No. 1 overall pick led the National League with 209 innings and pitched to a 3.32 ERA with 10.8 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and a 51.1 percent ground-ball rate during the regular season, but it was the playoffs where he shined brightest.

In 36 1/3 postseason frames, Strasburg logged a 1.98 ERA with a ridiculous 47-to-4 K/BB ratio. He not only went toe-to-toe with eventual AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander in a must-win Game 6 showdown but delivered a masterful, near-complete game effort that forever cemented him in Nationals lore.

The Dodgers would be hard-pressed to sign Strasburg and remain south of the luxury tax — particularly since their previous pursuits of premier free agents have tended to feature shorter-term pacts at extremely high annual rates. Just what type of deal the Dodgers envision putting in front of Strasburg and agent Scott Boras isn’t clear, but the current iteration of the L.A. front office, under president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, has yet to dole out a contract longer than five years.

10:59am: Free agent third baseman Anthony Rendon has been actively engaged with multiple teams in free agency. In addition to a sit-down with the Rangers, he has held a recent meeting with the Dodgers, according to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney.

It seems that other teams may also have had face-time with Rendon and agent Scott Boras, though their identities aren’t known. Intense early interest is creating the potential for a fairly quick and dramatic strike, with some unnamed execs around the game telling Olney they expect Rendon to be the first major free agent to sign — and that his new deal “could establish a record for highest annual value.”

That last note represents the latest hint that Rendon won’t be chasing the largest deal in overall value, spread over a huge term, as did former teammate Bryce Harper. Instead, he seems to be intrigued by the possibility of a shorter, higher-AAV pact that leaves him with greater flexibility. No shortage of teams would prefer that sort of arrangement as well — including, especially, the big-market Dodgers, who don’t mind plunking down premium salaries but prefer not to tie their hands too far into the future.

We had already learned of the connection between the Los Angeles outfit and Rendon, so it isn’t especially surprising to hear that they’ve taken the next step. But it’s still quite a notable news item for both team and player. On the Dodgers’ side, dedicated pursuit of Rendon would reshape their roster and payroll, with huge implications for the remainder of the winter and beyond. And for Rendon, the strong involvement of the L.A. behemoth not only opens a potentially promising opportunity, but provides ample leverage in talks with other trade partners.

So, is it down to the Dodgers and Rangers? Not so fast. We haven’t yet learned whether the Nationals will remain involved after making multiple efforts to keep Rendon from reaching free agency; that’s a realistic possibility that certainly hasn’t been ruled out. And there are quite a few other contenders that seem like plausible fits for Rendon, even at the premium price tag he seems destined to command.

Zack Wheeler Bidding Already In Nine Figures

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3:37pm: The White Sox are “willing” to push beyond the five-year, $100MM mark in order to sign Wheeler, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports. Whether they’ve actually made such an offer isn’t clear.

11:57am: It seems the Wheeler auction could be building to a crescendo. It’s possible and “maybe even probable” that he’ll sign before the Winter Meetings open next week, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter).

9:35am: Free agent righty Zack Wheeler is going to break the $100MM barrier with his next contract, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). Per the report, Wheeler already has at least one offer in hand of at least $100MM.

MLBTR foresaw intense bidding for Wheeler entering the offseason, when we ranked him fourth in earning power among all free agents. It seems our prediction of five years and $100MM — aggressive at the time — will actually end up just on the light side. The question remains how far north of that figure Wheeler will roll.

Rosenthal lists the White Sox, Twins, Reds, Rangers and Blue Jays as teams with ongoing interest in Wheeler. That’s a non-exclusive list; quite a few other clubs have also been tied to the 29-year-old. The involvement of such organizations reflects the reason we were so bullish on Wheeler’s market entering the winter. Simply put, he checks a lot of boxes for a lot of teams.

It’ll cost draft compensation to sign Wheeler, but that’s not an overwhelming deterrent for a still-youthful player who possesses top-of-the-rotation stuff. Wheeler has been healthy for two seasons while maintaining a big heater and compelling peripherals. He threw 195 1/3 innings in 2019, which is quite a sum in this day and age. That’s a good sign for a pitcher who battled through health problems before a bounceback ’18 campaign. And it seems teams are taking the view that his 2019 ERA (3.96) doesn’t fully reflect his true talent level.

So how much is too much for a pitcher with Wheeler’s history of arm issues and less-than-perfect platform season? That’s what we may soon find out. But in thinking through his value, it’s worth recalling the broader market situation.

In terms of supply, Wheeler occupies an interesting position. He’s clearly not to the level of Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, but arguably possesses a much loftier ceiling — with a combination of premium stuff and relative youth — than any of the other available starters. Teams not interested in approaching or exceeding the $200MM level of spending have understandably zeroed in on Wheeler as a potential budget ace. And there’s no shortage of organizations with conceivable interest. Multiple big-spending contenders are chasing top arms along with the teams listed above.

Latest On Brewers’ Offseason Plans

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Having already trimmed a laundry list of notable players from their 40-man roster — some through free agency, others via trade, yet more through non-tender — the Brewers now face a wide open remaining offseason. Just what course it’ll take isn’t really evident from the outside; no doubt it’s also something of a mystery from within.

It emerged recently that the Brewers are actively engaged in trade discussions regarding ace reliever Josh Hader. It’s not a given he’ll be dealt, but that’s now a distinct (and somewhat surprising) possibility for a repeat postseason team.

Hader isn’t the only veteran who has been bandied about in talks. The club is also amenable to discussing center fielder Lorenzo Cain, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports. Market demand for center fielders remains strong; perhaps the Brewers see an opening to moving some of the remaining money owed Cain.

Unlike Hader, Cain isn’t a positive-value asset at this stage. He turned in a big first season in Milwaukee after his surprise signing but stumbled in 2019. His contract calls for $51MM more in the next three campaigns — a big bill for a player coming off of an 83 wRC+ effort and demonstrating reduced foot speed (by measure of Statcast). But defensive metrics still love Cain’s glove and there’s reason to hope he can bounce back offensively.

Moving Cain would open yet more payroll space, but the end goal here isn’t yet quite evident. Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that the prevailing expectation around the game is for the Brewers to pare back payroll after opening the 2019 season at a franchise-high $122.5MM. While that may be what others teams are thinking in the wake of the team’s recent moves and trade talk, however, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel suggested in his latest podcast (audio link) that there’s no directive to cut payroll and that the team will likely spend to address some notable holes on the roster (corner infield, catcher, starting pitching). The extent to which they’ll spend, of course, can’t be known; the Brewers appeared headed for a modest payroll in 2019 until late opportunities to add Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas on short-term deals surfaced unexpectedly.

At a minimum, there’s now ample flexibility for GM David Stearns to work with. Haudricourt covered the comments on the matter yesterday from Stearns. (Links to Twitter.) The club’s top baseball ops exec acknowledged the money-saving effects of the moves but didn’t really commit himself to one course of action or another, beyond making clear that the team “intend[s] on being competitive once again next year.”

Stearns cautioned fans not to judge the roster based upon its present status, saying he anticipates “invest[ing] in players throughout the course of the offseason.” And at least some of the open payroll space will be put to use. “I’d say that payroll flexibility helps, and isn’t a bad thing as we evaluate potential acquisitions throughout the offseason,” says Stearns. “It’s helpful to have payroll room.”

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