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Phillies To Pursue Anthony Rendon

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The Phillies are preparing to make a run at free agent third baseman Anthony Rendon, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. He’s now the team’s top priority, per the report.

If there was any doubt as to the Phillies’ all-in intentions after they inked Zack Wheeler, this would seem to resolve it. The organization had spoken of its disinclination to part with draft compensation to land free agents. But having done so for Wheeler, adding another qualifying offer-declining free agent would actually cost less in draft capital.

Should the sides end up seeing eye to eye on a contract, Rendon would be following Bryce Harper in a dramatic trip north on I-95. It’s not difficult to see the match on paper. Rendon is an exceptional all-around player who’d fill the void at the hot corner for the Phils. The team grew tired of waiting for Maikel Franco to establish himself there and isn’t inclined to sit on its hands until top prospect Alec Bohm is ready.

Plenty of other teams (the incumbent Nationals among them) would likewise love to slot Rendon in at third base. He’s being courted by a variety of organizations. Rumors persist that Rendon would be interested in a somewhat shorter, higher-AAV contract — the precise opposite of the angle Harper took. Whether that sort of arrangement would suit the Philadelphia club’s needs isn’t known.

What is clear is that the involvement of the Phillies only serves to buttress Rendon’s market. Entering the winter, we predicted a $235MM guarantee over seven years. It seems that Rendon does indeed have that kind of earning power, even if he ultimately elects to take a shorter contract with greater single-season salaries.

Rangers Sign Kyle Gibson

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Dec. 6: The Rangers have announced the deal. Their 40-man roster is up to 39 players.

Dec. 5: The official price tag is $28MM in guaranteed money over three years, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter links) with $3MM more available to Gibson in incentives.  The front-loaded deal will pay Gibson $11MM in 2020, $10MM in 2021, and $7MM in 2022.

Nov. 27: The Rangers are poised to make their first big addition of the winter, as they’ve reportedly agreed to a three-year, $30MM pact with free-agent right-hander Kyle Gibson. The agreement is pending completion of a physical. Gibson is a client of Rowley Sports Management.

Assuming the physical checks out, the agreement represents an important early marker on the market for starters. There’s a bevy of hurlers and quite a few teams working on matches at the outset of free agency. Gibson ranked 19th on MLBTR’s list of the top fifty free agents.

The reported three-year, $30MM term hews closely to the model that the Texas organization has adopted with Mike Minor and Lance Lynn in recent offseasons: identify an upside starter and pay a slight premium in terms of years in order to lure him into the fold. The total outlay doesn’t represent a large-scale risk for a team with the Rangers’ payroll track record — particularly with a new stadium in the offing in 2020. That said, Gibson isn’t exactly a sure bet to break out in the same manner as Minor and Lynn have in Arlington.

At 32 years of age, Gibson is older than many first-time free-agent pitchers — and not because he signed a contract extension that delayed his path to the open market. Injuries, most notably Tommy John surgery, delayed the former Mizzou star and first-round pick’s path to the big leagues. He didn’t dbut until he was on the cusp of his 26th birthday and didn’t pitch a full season in the Majors until he was indeed 26.

Gibson showed real promise with a strong full season of work in 2015 before turning in matching 5.07 ERAs in both 2016 and 2017. He turned the corner in 2018, when he ran up a 3.62 ERA over 196 2/3 innings. His 2019 results are disappointing by comparison. After a late lull, he finished with a 4.84 ERA in 160 frames. Those results, it should be noted, can in some ways be attributed to recent health troubles — though none involving his arm. Rather, Gibson lost roughly 25 pounds last winter due to a bout of e-coli, and he was never fully able to put the weight back on and build up to full strength. Late in the season, he missed time due to further gastrointestinal issues when he diagnosed with ulcerative colitis.

All that said, it’s worth drilling down beneath the surface-level numbers with Gibson even more so than with most free agents. The lanky 6’6″ righty struck out exactly one hitter for every inning he pitched and posted a career-high 13.1% swinging-strike rate in 2019, and he carried a characteristically strong 51.4% ground-ball rate.

Gibson has also taken a major step forward with his slider in recent seasons; what was already an above-average pitch for much of his career generated a career-best 26.7 percent swinging-strike rate over the past two years. Gibson’s changeup, too, has been an outstanding offering at times and has generated a near-60 percent grounder rate dating back to Opening Day 2018. Combined with a fastball that has averaged 93.6 mph over the past two seasons, Gibson is armed with a quality three-pitch mix — even if his four-seamer isn’ta swing-and-miss offering at all.

The big question from a performance standpoint is the long ball. Gibson has always been a bit prone to coughing up dingers when hitters manage to put the ball in the air. Last year, he allowed home runs on 20.4 percent of the balls put in the air against him and served up an average of 1.29 big flies per nine innings pitched. He’s also never had particularly strong command of the strike zone, evidenced by a career 3.2 BB/9 mark (identical to his season-long total in 2019).

At a minimum, it seems reasonable to hope that Gibson will settle in as a steady and durable back-of-the-rotation arm — just the sort of piece the Rangers so badly need. That outcome would make this investment something of an overpay, but it’s also easy to see how better health could bring about a Minor/Lynn-esque breakout for Gibson and make his contract look like a similarly savvy bargain pickup for president of baseball operations Jon Daniels and his staff.

Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported that the two sides were closing in on a deal (Twitter links). Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that a deal was in place (via Twitter). Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reported the contract terms (via Twitter).

Reds Sign Mike Moustakas

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Dec. 5: The Reds have formally announced the agreement and confirmed the reported contractual terms. Moustakas has agreed to a four-year, $64MM deal — the largest free-agent signing in Reds franchise history.

Bobby Nightengale Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer breaks down the yearly details: Moustakas will earn $12MM in 2020, $14MM in 2021, $16MM in 2022 and $18MM in 2023. There’s also an unannounced club option for the 2024 season that is valued at $20MM and comes with a $4MM buyout.

Dec. 2: The Reds have agreed to a deal with free agent infielder Mike Moustakas, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter links). It’s a four-year, $64MM pact for the Scott Boras client, according to reports from Heyman and Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (via Twitter).

After two disappointing trips through the free agent process, it seems Moose has finally secured a long-awaited long-term agreement. His recently demonstrated ability to line up at second base was a game changer for the long-time third baseman. Moustakas now appears likely to pair up with Freddy Galvis to form a bit of an unlikely double-play combo in Cincinnati.

We predicted a five-year pact for Moustakas after the 2017 season, when he was a high-quality and still youthful third baseman. After he was forced into a pillow deal, we downgraded expectations to a two-year deal entering the 2018-19 winter. Moustakas again settled for a single-season guarantee from the Brewers. On the heels of another solid, but hardly otherworldly season, we doubled down on that two-year guess … only to see Moustakas absolutely smash expectations.

Having seen him up close over the past two seasons, the Reds clearly believe that Moustakas is not only capable of holding down the fort at second base, but doing so well and for some years to come. The corners are already locked up for the foreseeable future with Joey Votto and Eugenio Suarez.

And the Cincinnati front office is also going all-in on the bat of Moustakas. He has now twice exceeded thirty home runs and has topped the .200 mark in isolated power in each of the past four campaigns. The power is real, but so are the on-base struggles. Moustakas’s .329 OBP from 2019 was a career high-water mark but barely topped the league average.

Over the course of his career, Moustakas has reached base at a marginal .310 clip. Can he sustain and even extend his relatively productive 2019 in the OBP arena? Moustakas did carry a personal-best 9.1% walk rate in 2019, though his swinging-strike rate also crept up to a new high-water mark (11.0%). He has never hit much for average, so continued commitment to drawing free passes may be the ticket.

Even at his best, Moustakas has never rated as a true star. He has topped 2.0 fWAR in each of the past three campaigns but hasn’t gone past 3.0 since 2015. While bWAR put him at 3.2 wins above replacement in 2019, it took a dimmer view of his prior three seasons. And at this point, youth isn’t really on Moose’s side. But the Reds obviously feel that Moustakas will continue to be a steady producer and were willing to pay for his consistency. It stands to reason that other teams did as well, since the bidding pushed so far north.

Brewers Acquire Omar Narvaez

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11:00am: The Brewers have formally announced the trade.

“Omar has established himself as one of the best offensive catchers in the game,” president of baseball operations David Stearns said in a press release. “We believe his bat will give us an impactful left-handed presence in our lineup.”

9:20am: The Brewers look to have found their replacement for Yasmani Grandal, as they’ve reportedly struck a trade to acquire Omar Narvaez from the Mariners in exchange for minor league right-hander Adam Hill and a Competitive Balance draft pick. The Brewers’ pick this year lands in Round B this year and is currently slotted in at No. 71 overall, although draft forfeitures for free agents who rejected qualifying offers could nudge that selection up a few spots.

Omar Narvaez | Kim Klement-USA TODAY SportsNarvaez is one of the few backstops in baseball that can come close to matching Grandal with the bat. And he’ll cost a whole lot less, bringing three seasons of control that begin with a projected arbitration cost of just $2.9MM. That’s not to say the Brewers won’t miss the outgoing Grandal. He’s a premium defender, especially in the pitch-framing department. Narvaez is considered a work in progress with the glove. He graded as one of the game’s worst framers in 2018 but did make strides to average levels last year.

Though Narvaez is unquestionably a nice addition, there are some risks here for the Milwaukee organization. His .278/.353/.460 slash and 22 long balls from 2019 came despite a decidedly chilly 85.4 mph average exit velocity and 27.5% hard-hit rate. Narvaez can draw a walk, with an 11.3% career rate, but could slip back towards league-average in overall offensive productivity if he can’t sustain the power output.

One other factor here: Most of the damage done by the left-handed-hitting Narvaez last year came against right-handed pitching. The Brewers will presumably task Manny Pina with a larger role than he was allotted last year with Grandal around.

As for the Mariners, this is only the latest in a long line of roster swaps. Consider its place in this strand of the voluminous trade history of Seattle Jerry Dipoto. Narvaez arrived last fall in the swap that sent reliever Alex Colome to the White Sox. Colome had only just landed in Seattle along with Denard Span in a creative mid-2018 arrangement. Now, after one productive year with the M’s and despite several seasons of affordable control remaining, the 27-year-old Narvaez is heading out the door. He stands to be replaced by 28-year-old Tom Murphy, who was himself picked up in a late-spring deal earlier in 2019.

Murphy’s own booming breakout in Seattle last year presumably helped nudge the Mariners into a move here. There’s also a solid prospect on the way in Cal Raleigh, though he’s not necessarily ready for prime time and isn’t a sure thing. The Mariners will presumably now set out looking for a second piece of a new backstop tandem. Since the right-handed-hitting Murphy made his mark almost exclusively against left-handed-hitting pitching last year — he carried a whopping 450-point OPS spread — it stands to reason that the team will prefer to find a player who (like the outgoing Narvaez) profiles as a strong option against opposing righty pitching.

In Hill, the Mariners will acquire a 2018 fourth-rounder who’s already been traded once since being drafted out of the University of South Carolina. The Mets selected Hill with the 110th overall pick in 2018 but traded him to the Brewers in exchange for Keon Broxton last January less than a year after that pick. (Ironically, Broxton landed in Seattle on a waiver claim long after the Mets had cut him.)

Hill spent the 2019 season with Milwaukee’s affiliate in the Class-A Midwest League, tallying 121 2/3 innings of 3.92 ERA ball with 8.1 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 0.89 HR/9 and a 44.4 percent ground-ball rate in 23 starts (plus another three relief outings). Hill is 6’6″ and listed at 225 pounds, so he has plenty of size to stick as a starter, though reports from FanGraphs and MLB.com note that his questionable command could drop him into a bullpen role despite the potential for three average or better pitches (fastball, slider, changeup). He was ranked in the back half of the Brewers’ top 30 prospects and should fall into similar standing within a rapidly improving Mariners farm system.

Seattle will also pick up an additional pick in the 2020 draft as well as the slot money that accompanies that selection. Draft slot values for next year aren’t yet known, but picks in that general vicinity slotted in around $900K in value last year, so it’s likely the M’s are adding close to a million dollars to next year’s draft pool. Seattle gave up two fairly expensive seasons of Colome to acquire four years of Narvaez in the first place, and they’ve parlayed that deal into a productive year from Narvaez, a decent pitching prospect and some additional capital in the upcoming draft. It’s not an overwhelming return, but the end result moves the needle on the Mariners’ rebuild forward a bit.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that the two sides were close to a deal (via Twitter). Greg Johns of MLB.com reported the Mariners’ return and that the deal had been completed (via Twitter).

Atkins On Blue Jays’ Offseason Approach

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Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins chatted with reporters yesterday about his club’s place in the offseason transactional carousel, as Kaitlyn McGrath of The Athletic (subscription link) was among those to cover.

Atkins emphasized that the organization has been “aggressive” on the free agent market, especially with regard to starting pitching. While there isn’t a deal to show for it just yet, there’s obviously ample time remaining and a slew of appealing options still on the market.

What of the top options available? “There’s not a free agent that we haven’t touched base with,” he said. It’s tough to see the Toronto organization as a serious player for any of this winter’s super-premium free agents, but Atkins certainly suggested that the front office has at least seen cause to check in on all the possibilities. Whether or not it’ll happen is far from clear — the guess here is it won’t — -but Atkins says the Blue Jays have the capacity to go into nine-figure territory for the right player.

It’s still anyone’s guess which arms the Jays will come away with. But Atkins did strongly suggest the team is likelier to make significant moves via free agency than trade. He expressed a disinclination to part with youthful “players that we’re really excited about” in order to acquire a compelling new MLB hurler.

One possibility: Hyun-Jin Ryu. We haven’t heard much about where the market is headed for the standout southpaw, but Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets that the Jays are “in” on him. Just how to interpret that isn’t clear, particularly in light of the Atkins declaration that the team has cast an exceedingly wide net, but it sounds as if there’s at least some real interest on the part of the Toronto organization.

There’s still ample opportunity left for the Jays on the market. And the team is offering notable opportunity for free agents — a selling point in and of itself for certain hurlers. Atkins said that the Jays don’t feel fully committed to any starters other than Chase Anderson for 2020. That’s not to say that four more additions will be forthcoming, but it speaks to the team’s internal uncertainty and willingness to compete jobs.

Christian Villanueva Signs With Japan’s Nippon Ham Fighters

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Third baseman Christian Villanueva is headed back for a second season in Japan. He has joined the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters, per a club announcement passed along by Jason Coskrey (via Twitter).

Villanueva was one of the former big leaguers we covered recently in rounding up the year’s action in Asia’s top leagues. He struggled in his single-season stint with the Yomiuri Giants of Nippon Professional Baseball, slashing just .223/.325/.386 in 235 plate appearances, but obviously showed enough for the rival Fighters to give him another opportunity.

The 28-year-old Villanueva has demonstrated quite a bit more ability on this side of the Pacific. In 416 plate appearances with the Padres over the 2017-18 campaigns, he produced a .245/.303/.475 batting line with 24 home runs. And he’s a .263/.328/.457 hitter in over twelve hundred trips to the plate at the highest level of the minors.

Braves Sign Cole Hamels

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1:15pm: The Braves have formally announced the signing and (unlike most clubs) confirmed the terms of the contract in their press release. Their 40-man roster is now up to 38 players.

11:18am: The Braves have struck a one-year deal with lefty Cole Hamels, per ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). It’s said to include a $18MM guarantee for the John Boggs client.

Hamels can still get the job done as he closes in on his 36th birthday. Despite losing more than a full tick on his fastball from 2018-2019, he generated swings and misses at close to a twelve percent rate — much as he has done throughout his 14-year career. Since landing with the Cubs in the second half of the 2018 campaign, Hamels has spun 218 innings of 3.30 ERA ball over 39 starts while maintaining 9.0 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9.

This match has long made sense — for all the reasons the team decided last year to ink fellow veteran southpaw Dallas Keuchel to a rental contract. MLBTR predicted Hamels to land in Atlanta in our ranking of the top fifty free agents.

Entering the winter, we believed Hamels could command a two-year deal at a $15MM AAV. But it emerged soon after the market opened that the veteran southpaw actually preferred a single-season mercenary arrangement. That’s just what he’ll get, and he’ll command a bit of a salary premium by foregoing any long-term security.

Hamels drew widespread interest over the past month. That continued into the month of December, with Bob Nightengale reporting (Twitter link) that a half-dozen organizations were still involved as of yesterday. The Phillies, White Sox, Rangers, and — surprisingly — the Giants were among the teams in the market until the end, per the report.

That Philadelphia link only further increases the NL East intrigue that we’re bound to see in 2020. While he is a few years removed from his tenure with the Phils, Hamels will always be known first and foremost as a long-time Phillies hurler who was one of the team’s key players during its last run of success.

Now, Hamels will try to help the Braves get over the hump. The Atlanta org has won the past two division crowns, but hasn’t yet managed to translate that success into the postseason. Hamels promises to step in for Keuchel as a durable veteran who has been there and done that plenty of times over a long and prosperous career.

This is the latest early strike for the Braves, who have already ticked through quite a few items on the checklist before the Winter Meetings even kick off. Hamels isn’t the top-of-the-rotation arm that might be preferred, but his addition doesn’t preclude further adds. For now, though, the focus will likely remain on re-signing or replacing third baseman Josh Donaldson.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Dodgers, Angels Have Held In-Person Meetings With Gerrit Cole

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The Dodgers and Angels “have gotten face time” with free agent ace Gerrit Cole, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. Those teams have long rated among the top theoretical possibilities for the California native.

Cole has recently been wooed in person by the Yankees, who’d like to roll out the red carpet for him in the Bronx. Sherman provides a detailed explanation of the organization’s approach — including his belief that Cole’s general predilection for the West Coast won’t prevent him from donning pinstripes.

It’s completely unsurprising to hear of the Halos’ involvement. The organization is desperate to get back to winning, has a glaring need for pitching and money to spend, and is now set to embark upon a new potential revenue source after agreeing to a deal with the city of Anaheim.

As for the Dodgers, they were already known to have held sit-downs with two other high-end free agents. Now, they’re at least a legitimate player on Cole, though the true interest level isn’t known. This level of investment is well within the organization’s financial capabilities but hasn’t really been part of its approach of late. The team has been willing to spend gobs of money on short-term arrangements. Whether it’ll approach Cole with such a scenario, providing an alternative to a lengthier term and greater overall guarantee, remains to be seen.

Astros Still Involved In Zack Wheeler Market

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The Astros are among the teams still pursuing free agent righty Zack Wheeler, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Houston’s interest has long been known, but it wasn’t clear whether the club had staid in the bidding.

Entering the day, one Texas ballclub was known to be pursuing Wheeler. That still holds true, though the team’s identity has changed. It emerged earlier today that the Rangers are no longer involved.

To call Wheeler’s market robust would be an understatement. If reports are true, he’s already sitting on a baseline offer of five-year, $100MM (or more). It seems the only question is whether some organization will push much further north in terms of AAV or guaranteed years.

It’s interesting to see the ’Stros staying in this market even as it reaches greater heights than most anticipated. The club has strongly indicated a desire to drop below the luxury tax line and will need to drop some salary obligations to do so. Adding Wheeler would only add to the intrigue.

D-backs, Giants Join Cubs With Interest In Nicholas Castellanos

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12:30pm: The Diamondbacks are also showing some interest, Morosi tweets. It’s good news for Castellanos to have National League teams involved, though it’s still not clear which if any would be interested in a lengthy commitment.

10:42am: The Giants have joined the Cubs in showing interest in free agent outfielder Nicholas Castellanos, according to a report from Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Other pursuers remain unknown.

Castellanos is one of the many Scott Boras-repped players populating the upper reaches of the open market. He joins Marcell Ozuna among the top-available outfield options.

While it’s a bit worrisome to imagine Castellanos patrolling the spacious Oracle Park outfield, the club is pulling in the fences this winter. And as Morosi notes, it’s also possible that the youthful slugger could at some point step back into the infield. (He never managed to stick at third base previously but could presumably be expected to play a palatable first base.)

Castellanos is an exceptionally difficult free agent to prognosticate. We ultimately settled on a prediction of four years and $58MM, but batted around quite a few alternative concepts. Castellanos is an accomplished but hardly all-world hitter who has shown some improvements in the field but remains a bat-first player. Involvement of the Giants in his market would assuredly help, as the level of demand has constituted a major element of uncertainty in the earning outlook.

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