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Blue Jays Believed To Have Gotten Under Luxury Tax Threshold

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According to a report from Shi Davidi of Sportsnet, the Blue Jays are thought to have gotten their 2024 player payroll below the first competitive balance tax threshold of $237MM. However, that will not be confirmed until later this offseason when the commissioner’s office calculates each team’s final payroll and formally announces which clubs will have to pay luxury tax penalties for the 2024 season.

The Blue Jays came into the season with a luxury tax payroll approximately $11MM above the first threshold, but they shaved some money off the books by trading several players ahead of the deadline. It’s also worth keeping in mind that publicly available payroll estimates are exactly that – estimates.

According to the estimates at RosterResource, 10 teams (including the Blue Jays) are in line to pay the luxury tax this January. The Mets, Dodgers, Yankees, Braves, Phillies, Astros, Giants, and Rangers are certain to be penalized, while the Blue Jays and Cubs are close enough that they could potentially slip under the $237MM threshold in the final calculations. RosterResource has Toronto’s final 2024 luxury tax payroll at $240.4MM and Chicago’s at $238.4MM. While neither the Blue Jays nor the Cubs would have to pay a particularly high penalty for their modest overages (if they do in fact go over), the Blue Jays, in particular, could benefit from resetting their penalties. They paid the luxury tax for the first time in franchise history last season. Luxury tax penalties increase when a team goes over the first threshold for a second consecutive season and increase again when a team goes over for a third consecutive season. Unless the Blue Jays are confidently planning to decrease payroll this winter, it would make a big difference if they could reset their penalties this year. After all, a 30% tax on a few million dollars in overages wouldn’t be that big of a deal for Toronto, but the potential for a 50% tax (the penalty for a third-time offender) next year and beyond could significantly hamper offseason spending.

What’s more, if the Blue Jays get under the luxury tax threshold, they would only lose their second-highest draft pick (and not their second and fifth-highest picks) if they sign a free agent who received the qualifying offer this winter. Similarly, they would only lose $500K of international bonus pool money rather than $1MM. Perennial high-spenders, like the World Series champion Dodgers, understand that it’s worth losing a few draft picks and some international bonus pool money in order to sign the best major league players and field the most competitive major league team. However, one can understand why the Blue Jays, who finished 74-88 in 2024 and would likely only be a few million over the luxury tax threshold (if they went over at all), would prefer not to be so harshly penalized.

There is no reason to believe the Blue Jays are entering a rebuilding or retooling phase after their disappointing 2024 season. Instead, it seems more likely they will try to contend once again in their final season of team control over Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. As they attempt to do so, it would certainly help if they don’t have to be quite so concerned about signing a QO free agent or bringing next year’s payroll above the first luxury tax threshold ($241MM in 2025). Davidi notes that team president Mark Shapiro doesn’t see the team’s payroll “either growing or decreasing in a big way,” but that still leaves for the team to sign at least one QO free agent and possibly eclipse the first tier of the CBT. RosterResource estimates that Toronto’s luxury tax payroll for 2025 is currently $211.2MM, approximately $29.2MM lower than this past year’s estimated total.

Cardinals Re-Sign Chance Sisco To Minor League Contract

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The Cardinals have re-signed catcher Chance Sisco to a minor league contract for the 2025 season. The team revealed the news via the Cardinals Player Development account on X.

Sisco, who will turn 30 in February, is a veteran of five big league seasons, although he has not played in the majors since 2021. Selected by the Orioles in the second round of the 2013 draft, he rose through the system over the next four years, hitting well at every step along the way. By the time the 2017 season rolled around, he was Baltimore’s top-ranked prospect according to Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, ESPN, and FanGraphs. Unfortunately, Sisco was never able to put things together at the highest level. Over 196 MLB games from 2017-21, he slashed .197/.317/.337, good for an 82 wRC+. Those numbers just weren’t strong enough for a catcher who also produced below-average blocking, throwing, and framing metrics.

The Orioles designated Sisco for assignment in June 2021, and the Mets put in a claim. However, he appeared in just five games for the Mets down the stretch before they, too, DFA’d him in September. He then bounced between the Mariners and Twins minor league systems, the Acereros de Monclova of the Mexican League, and the Long Island Ducks of the Atlantic League before signing a minor league deal with the Cardinals this past August. Evidently, the Cardinals liked what they saw from Sisco in the Atlantic League (.274/.416/.609 slash line) enough to bring him into the organization, and they liked what they saw during his brief stint with the Triple-A Memphis Redbirds to bring him back for the 2025 campaign. Over seven games with Memphis, the backstop went 5-for-23 with one home run, one walk, and two hit-by-pitches.

In further Cardinals news, the team confirmed that they have signed a new minor league deal with Packy Naughton, news the left-hander first announced himself over Instagram. St. Louis also announced the re-signing of nine additional minor leaguers to new contracts for 2025: right-handed pitchers Augusto Calderon, Angel Cuenca, Inohan Paniagua, Dionys Rodríguez, Victor Santos, and Leonardo Taveras; catcher Gavin Collins; infielder Ramon Mendoza; and second baseman and outfielder Darlin Moquete.

Giants To Name Zack Minasian General Manager

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The Giants are planning to name Zack Minasian their new general manager on Friday, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today. He will work under new president of baseball operations Buster Posey.

Minasian, the brother of Angels GM Perry Minasian, has been the Giants’ vice president of professional scouting since 2022 and a member of the front office since 2019.

Prior to coming to the Giants, Minasian spent 14 years working with the Brewers. He held various titles in that time, mostly in the scouting realm, before getting plucked out of Milwaukee and landing in San Francisco.

The Giants are undergoing a significant front office overhaul. Posey was tapped to replace Farhan Zaidi last month. Amid reporting on that change, it was also noted that general manager Pete Putila would be given a new role and replaced with a new GM.

Various names were floated as candidates, including Athletics assistant GM Billy Owens, Giants assistant GM Jeremy Shelley, Astros special advisor De Jon Watson and others, but the Giants will promote from within by giving Minasian the gig.

Presumably, Posey and Minasian already have some familiarity with each other. Posey was on the field for the Giants as recently as 2021 and later moved into a new role, buying a minority ownership stake and getting a seat on the club’s board of directors.

Regardless of whatever pre-existing relationship they had, their future partnership figures to be important for the franchise. Most baseball decision makers come from a background in scouting or analytics and are already familiar with the day-to-day role of running a baseball club. But Posey’s path is fairly unusual so he might be leaning on his second-in-command a bit more than other front office leaders, at least until he learns the ropes.

Lucas Giolito Exercises Player Option For 2025

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Red Sox starting pitcher Lucas Giolito has exercised his $19MM player option for the 2025 season, the team announced. There was little doubt that Giolito would pick up the option after he missed the entire 2024 season due to elbow surgery.

Last winter, Giolito was Boston’s big winter signing. It was a two-year deal with a $38.5MM guarantee, with the righty having the ability to opt-out after the first season.

He had a down year in 2023 and was surely hoping for a bounceback in 2024, which could allow him to return to the open market with more earning power. Unfortunately, he was diagnosed with a partial tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his throwing elbow during spring training, as well as a flexor strain, ultimately undergoing internal brace surgery.

After missing the entire 2024 campaign, there was little drama about this decision. Rather than return to free agency, he’ll lock in his $19MM player option and be a part of Boston’s rotation mix for 2025. He might not be ready by Opening Day but should get back on the mound at some point.

The Sox are now losing Nick Pivetta to free agency, leaving them with a rotation core of Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford. They also have guys like Richard Fitts, Cooper Criswell, Quinn Priester and others for the back end. They will likely pursue offseason upgrades but Giolito will be a midseason addition at some point. As will Garrett Whitlock and Chris Murphy, who also underwent elbow surgery early in the ’24 season.

When Giolito returns will be of importance for him and the club, as his deal with the Sox also includes a option for 2026. If he throws fewer than 140 innings in 2025, it’s a $14MM club option. But if he gets over that threshold, it’s a $19MM mutual option. Either way, the buyout is $1.5MM.

If Giolito has a strong bounceback, he will want to get over that line and return to free agency, but he’ll need to stay fairly healthy after his current rehab is over. If he has a decent season but falls shy of the line, he could be a relatively cheap rotation option for the Sox in ’26.

Giolito allowed a massive 41 home runs in 2024, bumping his ERA up to 4.88 even though his 25.7% strikeout rate was still strong and his 9.2% walk rate close to average. From 2019 to 2023, he had a 4.11 ERA, 28.3% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk rate in almost 800 innings.

White Sox Decline Team Option For Yoán Moncada

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The White Sox will not exercise their $25MM club option for Yoán Moncada’s services in 2025. He will receive a $5MM buyout instead. Francys Romero of BeisbolFR reported the news this afternoon on X.

This has been the expected outcome for a while. Moncada has had some good performances in the majors but the past three seasons have seen him underperform, miss significant time due to injury or both.

Moncada appeared in just 208 games during the 2022-2024 seasons due to various injuries. That includes just 12 games in the ’24 campaign, as a left adductor strain kept him on the injured list for most of the year. Even when he came off the IL, the Sox didn’t play him much, preferring to give that time to younger players who could be part of the next competitive window.

Even when on the field, Moncada hasn’t performed especially well of late. He has hit .236/.291/.387 since the start of 2021 for a wRC+ of 88. With that performance, it’s unsurprising that the Sox would balk at giving Moncada another $20MM to stick around for one more year.

That leaves Moncada as a buy-low bounceback candidate in free agency this winter. He was once a high-profile defector from Cuba and highly-regarded prospect with the Red Sox, heading to Chicago as part of the Chris Sale trade in December of 2016.

It took Moncada a few years but he finally had his long-awaited breakout in 2019, launching 25 home runs and slashing .315/.367/.548 for a wRC+ of 139. When combined with his strong defense, he was worth 5.2 wins above replacement that year, in the eyes of FanGraphs.

Going into 2020, the Sox bet on Moncada by giving him a five-year, $70MM extension which included a club option. He struggled a bit in the shortened 2020 season but bounce back with another strong campaign in 2021. But then, as mentioned, the past three seasons have been very disappointing, leading the Sox to turn down the option today.

Despite the may ups and downs in his journey, Moncada is still relatively young, not turning 30 until May. He will likely find some club willing to make a small bet on his past pedigree, perhaps on a deal loaded with incentives, on account of his many health issues.

The third base free agent market is headlined by Alex Bregman, but most of the other options are bench/utility guys like Paul DeJong, Gio Urshela and Amed Rosario. The trade market could feature Nolan Arenado or Eugenio Suárez, but it’s unclear how available either player is while Arenado’s no-trade clause could complicate matters. Moncada is obviously a risky play right now but also has demonstrated upside.

Cardinals Decline Team Options For Gibson, Lynn, Middleton

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12:45 pm: The Cardinals have formally announced their decision to decline all three club options.

12:22 pm: The Cardinals will not pick up their 2025 team options for right-handed pitchers Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, or Keynan Middleton, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The club could have retained Gibson and Lynn for $12MM each, while Middleton’s option was valued at $6MM. Instead, the Cardinals will pay all three pitchers a $1MM buyout and send them back onto the free agent market. They will be eligible to sign with any of the other 29 teams as of Monday.

Earlier this week, The Athletic’s Katie Woo wrote that the team was “not expected” to keep Lynn or Middleton, but the news about Gibson comes as a bit more of a surprise. The durable veteran came exactly as advertised in 2024, giving the Cardinals 30 starts and 169 2/3 innings with a 4.24 ERA and 4.44 SIERA. However, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told Goold that he is prioritizing “maximum flexibility” this offseason, hence his decision to clear as much money from the books as possible.

Gibson has been one of the most reliable pitchers in the game throughout his career. Dating back to his first full season in 2014, he has made 314 starts. No other pitcher has made as many 300 starts in that time. He has never pitched like an ace, but there is good value in a starter who can consistently pitch a full season’s worth of innings with an ERA close to league average. That’s why Gibson earned a $10MM deal from the Orioles two offseasons ago and a $13MM guarantee from the Cardinals last winter. That’s also why he would have been well worth a net value of $11MM in 2025. It seems as if the Cardinals understand as much but simply prefer to use that money elsewhere. Woo noted they might have picked up Gibson’s option if they felt confident they could offload Miles Mikolas or Steven Matz in a trade. Her report suggests the front office liked Gibson at that $11MM value but ultimately decided they had too much money tied up in other veteran starting pitchers.

Goold mentions that Gibson has “expressed an interest” in returning to St. Louis next season, and for what it’s worth, Mozeliak suggested the team could still consider reunions with all three pitchers. Presumably, however, the Cardinals will wait and see if they can trade any of their other veteran starters before possibly picking up negotiations with Gibson.

Lynn pitched well over the first four months of the 2024 season, bouncing back from a difficult 2023 campaign to produce a respectable 4.06 ERA and 4.47 SIERA across his first 21 starts. Unfortunately, right knee inflammation limited him to just two starts over the final two months of the year. They were both good outings, lowering his full-season ERA to 3.84, but considering Lynn’s age (he’ll turn 38 next year) and his recent history of right knee problems (he missed more than two months after knee surgery in 2022), it’s not hard to see why the Cardinals were wary of bringing him back on an eight-figure salary in 2025.

The 2024 season was a lost year for Middleton, who could not return to the mound after suffering a forearm strain in spring training. He ultimately underwent flexor tendon surgery in June, formally ending his season. With that in mind, the Cardinals’ decision not to pick up his option is the least surprising of the three. It’s possible he’ll be back to full health by next spring, but his value is certainly lower than it was at this time last year. Wherever he signs this offseason, it’s likely to be for significantly less than $6MM.

In addition to Gibson, Lynn, and Middleton, three more Cardinals veterans will be free agents this winter: Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Carpenter, and Andrew Kittredge. Even with a handful of players eligible to earn raises in arbitration and Sonny Gray’s forthcoming $15MM salary bump (the deal he signed last winter was heavily backloaded), RosterResource estimates the Cardinals 2025 payroll to be $147MM, well below their estimated $183MM payroll this past season. If they had chosen to pick up the options on Gibson, Lynn, and Middleton, that would have increased next year’s payroll projection to $174MM.

Randal Grichuk Declines Mutual Option With Diamondbacks

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Outfielder Randal Grichuk has turned down his end of a $6MM mutual option with the Diamondbacks, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. As Ethan Hullihen noted on X, Grichuk will receive a $1.75MM buyout. It’s unclear if the Diamondbacks exercised their half of the option, although it’s now a moot point.

It’s hardly a surprise that Grichuk is electing free agency after the strong 2024 season he put together. The veteran shone as a right-handed platoon bat, producing his best offensive numbers since his rookie campaign in 2015. Over 279 plate appearances, he hit 20 doubles, two triples, and 12 home runs, good for an .875 OPS and a 139 wRC+. And while he excelled against left-handed pitchers, whom he faced in two-thirds of his plate appearances, it helped that he held his own without the platoon advantage. He put up a .913 OPS and 151 wRC+ against lefties and an .801 OPS and 116 wRC+ against righties. It was the first time since 2018 that he produced above-average numbers against same-handed pitchers.

Grichuk did all that on just a $1.5MM salary in 2024. He was also guaranteed a $500K buyout at the end of the season if either he or the Diamondbacks declined his mutual option. He was able to increase that buyout to $1.75MM by reaching 250 plate appearances in 2024, meaning he will need up earning $3.25MM on this deal. Needless to say, the D-backs got a tremendous bargain, and it will most likely take a good deal more money, and perhaps even multiple years, for a team to secure his services this winter. Grichuk could have his sights on something close to the two-year, $13MM deal Hunter Renfroe signed with the Royals last offseason.

To be clear, Grichuk is still a part-time player in his mid-thirties without a particularly strong track record of success. He’s not going to be one of the top free agent bats on the market. Still, there will always be a robust market for productive role players, and there are good reasons to believe Grichuk can maintain his newfound success. For one thing, he drastically improved his plate discipline in 2024, putting up the lowest strikeout rate and highest walk rate of his career. His 47.6% hard-hit rate was also a career-high. Those numbers should be able to convince plenty of teams that Grichuk can be a valuable contributor in 2025.

The Diamondbacks had one of the most productive lineups in the majors this past year, but they’ll surely be in the market for bats again this winter as they look to get back to the playoffs in 2025. In addition to Grichuk, they are going to lose first baseman Christian Walker to free agency. They could also be without Joc Pederson, who has a $14MM mutual option for 2025, and Eugenio Suárez, if they choose not to exercise his $15MM team option.

Mets Sign Dylan Covey To Major League Deal

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The Mets have given out their first major league contract of the offseason, signing right-handed pitcher Dylan Covey to a one-year deal. The team announced the news this afternoon.

The terms of the deal have not yet been announced, although it’s presumably not a very high guarantee. Indeed, it’s somewhat surprising to see Covey land a big league deal at all considering his limited track record and lack of MLB success. He made his debut with the White Sox in 2017 after they selected him from the A’s in the Rule 5 draft. Over three seasons in Chicago, largely as a starting pitcher, he produced a 6.54 ERA and 5.16 SIERA in 250 1/3 innings of work. It was hardly a surprise when the White Sox cut him over the 2019-20 offseason and he elected free agency.

Over the next few years, Covey bounced from the Rays to the Red Sox to the Chinese Professional Baseball League in Taiwan. His performance over two seasons with the Rakuten Monkeys convinced the Dodgers to offer him a minor league deal before the 2023 season. Yet, after just one appearance for L.A., he was designated for assignment. The Phillies, in need of a mop-up man, claimed Covey off of waivers and put him in their bullpen. In his first chance at regular MLB playing time as a reliever, he was rather effective, albeit in a low-leverage role, pitching to a 3.69 ERA and 4.53 SIERA over 39 innings.

However, Covey did not pitch in the majors at all in 2024. He sat out the first four months of the season recovering from a right shoulder strain, and the Phillies removed him from the 40-man roster and sent him outright to Triple-A upon his return from the IL. Nonetheless, the Mets must have liked what they saw over his 15 appearances with the Lehigh Valley IronPigs. After giving up a solo home run to the very first batter he faced at Triple-A in 2024, the right-hander did not allow another run for the rest of the season. He struck out 27.6% of the batters he faced. The Mets have several open spots on their 40-man roster, and they will use one of those spots to slot Covey into the bullpen picture for 2025.

Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Guardians

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Despite a quiet offseason, the Guardians returned to contention in 2024. They won 92 games and the AL Central crown before falling to the Yankees in the ALCS. As November approaches, two related questions loom large for this team: Will the surprising success of their rivals in Detroit and Kansas City convince the Guardians to do more this winter to defend their division title? Or will the potential loss of local media revenue lead to another slow offseason?

Guaranteed Contracts

  • José Ramírez, 3B: $88MM through 2028
  • Andrés Giménez, 2B: $96.86MM through 2029 ($23MM club option for 2030 with $2.5MM buyout)
  • Myles Straw, CF: $13.8MM through 2026 ($8MM club option for 2027 with $1.75MM buyout and $8.5MM club option for ‘28 with a $500K buyout)
  • Emmanuel Clase, RHP: $11.3MM through 2026 ($10MM club options for 2027 and ‘28 with $2MM buyout for ‘27 and $1MM buyout for ‘28)
  • Trevor Stephan, RHP: $5.8MM through 2026 ($7.25MM club option for 2027 with $1.25MM buyout and $7.5 club option for ‘28 with no buyout)

Additional Financial Commitments

  • Jean Segura, INF: $2MM buyout owed on $10MM club option for 2025

Total 2025 commitments: $45.17MM
Total future commitments: $225.26MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Karinchak, McKenzie, Hentges

Free Agents

The top teams are often the most well-rounded, but the 2024 Guardians were defined by their strengths and weaknesses. Their bullpen was the best in baseball, but their starters were unreliable for most of the year. Meanwhile, their offense was excellent against left-handed pitching but struggled to score against righties. They were also one of the better defensive teams in the league by almost every metric, but their baserunning numbers were surprisingly mediocre. First and foremost, the Guardians need to focus on their scoring, and not run prevention, this winter. That said, they could badly use a couple more reliable options for the rotation.

All-Stars José Ramírez and Steven Kwan led the offense in 2024, and they’ll be back at the top of the order again next year. Even the notoriously stingy and trade-happy Guardians wouldn’t possibly part with their star third baseman, who continues to look like an absolute bargain on the seven-year, $141MM extension he signed in 2022. As for Kwan, the left fielder is a strong extension candidate himself after another terrific season. 

Additional veterans in the lineup include the slugging Josh Naylor at first base, defensive stalwart Andrés Giménez at second, and trade deadline acquisition Lane Thomas in center field. Youngsters Kyle Manzardo (DH), Bo Naylor (C), and Brayan Rocchio (SS) should have spots in next year’s starting nine as well. All three had up-and-down seasons, but considering their recent top prospect status, there’s little reason to think they won’t get to continue their development with the big league club in 2025. Indeed, the best way for Cleveland to improve its offense next year will be to get more production out of Manzardo, Bo Naylor, and Rocchio.

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Carson Fulmer, Charles Leblanc Elect Free Agency

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Right-handed pitcher Carson Fulmer and infielder Charles Leblanc elected free agency on Monday, according to the transaction log on MiLB.com. The Angels sent both players outright to Triple-A last week.

Fulmer won’t turn 31 until December but has already spent time with seven different organizations: the White Sox, Tigers, Orioles, Reds, Dodgers, Mariners, and Angels. Over eight major league seasons, he has largely worked as a low-leverage reliever and occasional spot starter, pitching to a 5.38 ERA and 4.92 SIERA in 227 1/3 innings. Needless to say, that’s not the kind of pitcher the White Sox were hoping for when they selected Fulmer with the eighth overall pick in the 2015 draft. Nonetheless, teams always need arms to pitch innings, and Fulmer proved he could fill that role with the Angels in 2024. In his most productive season to date, he made 37 appearances (eight starts) and gave L.A. 86 2/3 innings with a 4.15 ERA and 4.39 SIERA. Outside of a brief stint on the injured list with elbow inflammation, he stuck with the club from the day he had his contract selected on April 8 to the end of the regular season. The promise and potential of the former first-round pick have long since evaporated, but there is value in a pitcher who can offer innings as both a starter and reliever, even if he doesn’t excel in any particular area. Fulmer shouldn’t have trouble finding a new team this offseason, although he might have to settle for another minor league deal.

Leblanc is not nearly as established a player, though he has played well in the brief opportunities he’s gotten at the major league level. Over 59 games split between the Marlins in 2022 and the Angels in 2024, he’s hit 10 doubles and six home runs, good for a .742 OPS and a 109 wRC+. A former shortstop, he now splits his time between all three bases. That versatility, along with his righty pop, are his primary selling points as a bench bat. The fact that he still has two minor league options years remaining could also make him attractive to potential suitors this winter. That being said, his mediocre Triple-A numbers over the past two seasons (.253/.381/.430, 108 wRC+) and his 31.5% strikeout rate in the majors explain why the 28-year-old hasn’t seen much playing time at the MLB level. He should be able to land somewhere on a new minor league deal, but he’ll have to earn his way back up if he’s going to get another shot in the big leagues.

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