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Rangers Sign Patrick Murphy To Minor League Deal

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The Rangers have signed right-handed pitcher Patrick Murphy to a minor league contract, the team announced. The deal comes with an invitation to spring training. Murphy last appeared in the majors in 2022.

Over parts of three seasons with the Blue Jays and Nationals from 2020-22, Murphy pitched 39 2/3 innings across 35 games. He put up a 4.76 ERA and 4.31 SIERA, thanks in large part to a 48.0% groundball rate that helped him limit opposing batters to just three home runs. However, that wasn’t enough to keep either Toronto or Washington interested in having him around for long. The Blue Jays, who drafted the righty in 2013, designated him for assignment in August 2021. The Nationals, who had picked him up off of waivers, sent him outright to Triple-A in April 2022. He elected free agency at the end of the season.

Murphy spent the 2023 campaign in the Twins system. He pitched relatively well at Triple-A, putting up a 3.69 ERA and 4.40 FIP in a hybrid reliever/long reliever/starter role. Unfortunately, he failed to earn a promotion to the big league squad at any point during the year. However, his performance drew the attention of the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters of NPB, who signed him to a one-year contract with a team option for 2025.

Murphy had a serviceable 2024 campaign for the Fighters. His 3.26 ERA in 38 2/3 innings looks impressive by MLB standards, but it’s important to keep in mind that the league-average ERA in the Pacific League this past year was 3.04. What’s more, his 9.5% walk rate was notably worse than the 7.3% league average. Murphy also made a handful of starts for the Fighters’ minor league affiliate in the Eastern League, pitching to a 4.29 ERA in 21 innings; the league average was 3.28.

At the end of the season, the Fighters chose not to exercise Murphy’s option for 2025. The Rangers, however, must have seen something to like in his arm. The team has made several additions to the big league bullpen this winter, and they might not be finished, but there still could be a couple of spots available for the taking this spring. Murphy won’t be a favorite to make the Opening Day roster, but his ability to pitch multiple innings in an outing means he is an appealing depth option for the team to stash at Triple-A.

Rangers Interested In Re-Signing Kirby Yates

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The Rangers have already added four relievers this offseason: Robert Garcia, Jacob Webb, Shawn Armstrong, and Hoby Milner. However, they’re still lacking a proven high-leverage arm; Webb, Garcia, Armstrong, and Milner have a total of 15 career saves among them. With that in mind, president of baseball operations Chris Young still has work left to do. He acknowledged as much, telling Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News, “We’re going to need to continue to pursue leverage arms.”

To that point, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal recently described re-signing Kirby Yates as “a priority” for Texas. Similarly, Grant wrote that they would “absolutely love” to re-sign their All-Star closer. Yates was phenomenal for the Rangers in 2024. The veteran right-hander pitched to a 1.17 ERA and 2.85 SIERA in 61 appearances, saving 33 games in 34 chances. He was just as successful at inducing whiffs as he was at limiting hard contact, thanks to a highly effective four-seam and splitter pairing. Despite his 37 years of age, he was one of the most dominant closers in the game, vastly outperforming the one-year, $4.5MM contract he signed ahead of the season.

It’s easy to see why the Rangers would love to reunite with Yates, even though he’ll come with a much higher price tag this time. MLBTR put Yates at no. 38 on our Top 50 Free Agents list, predicting he’d sign a one-year, $14MM deal. Young might have to get creative to find room in the budget for a contract like that – Texas is reportedly trying to drop beneath the luxury tax threshold in 2025 – but his recent decision to trade Nathaniel Lowe shows he’s not afraid to do just that. RosterResource currently puts the Rangers’ luxury tax payroll at approximately $229MM, which is $12MM below the first tier of the tax. Signing Yates could push them over, but not so far over that Young wouldn’t be able to find a way to bring them back down.

The Rangers bullpen finished 26th in ERA and 23rd in SIERA in 2024. To make matters worse, they lost their four most experienced, high-leverage arms to free agency: Yates, David Robertson, Andrew Chafin, and José Leclerc. Arms like Webb, Garcia, Armstrong, and Milner will be much-needed reinforcements, but none can quite replace what the team lost at the back end of the ’pen. Thus, bringing back Yates makes perfect sense. A.J. Minter, another veteran arm who has been linked to the Rangers, could potentially fill that hole instead.

Astros DFA Grae Kessinger

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After officially announcing the Christian Walker signing earlier today, the Astros have designated infielder Grae Kessinger for assignment to open a spot for Walker on the 40-man roster (per Chandler Rome of The Athletic).

Kessinger, 27, was Houston’s second-round pick in the 2019 draft. The grandson of six-time All-Star Don Kessinger, he showed off excellent bat-to-ball skills in college, hitting .330 with a .904 OPS in his junior year at Ole Miss. However, evaluators had concerns about his ability to keep up against major league pitching. There were also rumblings he wouldn’t be able to stick at shortstop. Indeed, Kessinger struggled at the plate over his first few years in the Astros farm system, and he played all around the infield as the organization looked to maximize his versatility.

After his promotion to Triple-A in 2023, Kessinger seemed to take a step forward at the plate. He improved his walk-to-strikeout ratio and put up an .832 OPS and a 107 wRC+. It was enough to earn him a call-up to the big league club that summer. However, he failed to make an offensive impact at the major league level, going 8-for-40 with 12 strikeouts, good for a .614 OPS and 73 wRC+ in 26 games.

Despite his big league struggles in 2023, Kessinger made the Astros’ Opening Day roster in 2024. Unfortunately, he continued to come up short against MLB pitching. In 25 plate appearances, he didn’t manage a single hit. He walked thrice, reached once on a hit-by-pitch, and struck out seven times. To make matters worse, he regressed at Triple-A as well. His OPS dropped by more than 100 points from the year before, while his wRC+ fell to a well-below-average 83. 

Considering all his struggles at the plate, it’s hardly surprising to see Kessinger DFA’d. However, he can still provide value with his versatility – he’s played all four infield positions at the MLB level – and there could certainly be a team that sees enough potential in the former second-round pick to claim him off of waivers. If not, the Astros will have the option to send him outright to the minors and keep him in the organization.

Phillies Sign Joe Ross

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The Phillies and Joe Ross have agreed to a one-year contract, the team confirmed. Matt Gelb of The Athletic, who was first to report the signing, adds that Ross will receive a $4MM salary. The right-hander, who has experience as a starter and a reliever, is expected to take on a swingman role in Philadelphia. To free up a space for Ross on the 40-man roster, the Phillies have designated fellow righty José Cuas for assignment.

Ross, 32 in May, spent the 2024 season with the Brewers. He opened the year in Milwaukee’s rotation, making nine starts with a 4.50 ERA and 4.65 SIERA through mid-May. Unfortunately, a lower back strain landed him on the IL for more than two months in the middle of the year. He made one poor start upon his return before moving into the bullpen.

It was there that Ross thrived, pitching to a 1.67 ERA and 3.89 SIERA in 27 innings of work. Although his fastball velocity didn’t increase by much, he raised his strikeout rate from 18.7% as a starter to 24.1% as a reliever. He also did an excellent job limiting extra-base hits. While the righty gave up more fly balls and fewer grounders, he dropped his opponents’ isolated power from .134 to .060. In addition, Ross provided the Brewers bullpen with valuable length; he threw more than one inning in 10 of his 15 relief appearances.

Ultimately, the sample size of Ross’s 2024 season is relatively small. He pitched 47 innings as a starter and 27 out of the bullpen. Meanwhile, the sample size of his 2022 and ’23 seasons is non-existent. He landed on the IL with a UCL injury in August 2021, underwent his second career Tommy John surgery in May 2022, and did not pitch in the majors again until this past year.

From 2015-21, Ross was a capable pitcher when healthy. In 76 starts and 22 relief appearances for the Nationals, he put up a 4.26 ERA and an identical 4.26 SIERA. In 2024, he showed he could still be that arm. Across 74 innings, he produced a respectable 3.77 ERA and 4.38 SIERA. He went at least five innings in seven of his 10 starts and held his opponents scoreless in 12 of his 15 relief appearances. It’s easy to see what the Phillies like in a guy who can provide depth for the rotation and length for the bullpen. At the same time, it’s easy to see why fans might be nervous. Ross has a lengthy injury history that has prevented him from ever pitching more than 27 games or 108 innings in a season. That upside is why he landed a major league deal; his injury history is why it’s only a $4MM guarantee, pocket change for a Phillies team with a projected $289MM payroll (per RosterResource).

In a media availability last week, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said he was looking for a swingman type who could pitch out of both the rotation and the bullpen. However, after the team’s surprise acquisition of starter Jesús Luzardo, it was unclear if Dombrowski was still seeking another pitcher. With a projected rotation of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez, Ranger Suárez, and Luzardo, the Phillies could have opted to use Taijuan Walker as their swingman. The veteran lost his starting job this past year amidst a career-worst season. In 19 appearances (15 starts) he pitched to a 7.10 ERA and 5.25 SIERA in 83 2/3 innings of work.

With Ross in the fold, it’s hard to guess what Walker’s role will be with the Phillies in 2025 – if he’ll have one at all. The seven locks for the 2025 bullpen are José Alvarado, Matt Strahm, Jordan Romano, Orion Kerkering, José Ruiz, Tanner Banks, and Ross. That only leaves one spot left on the pitching staff. The Phillies could give that spot to Walker, but they might prefer to go with a higher-upside young arm rather than carrying two long men. Max Lazar, whom Dombrowski mentioned in his media availability last week, is one name on the 40-man roster to keep in mind. As for any further outside additions, the POBO suggested he’s likely done supplementing to the bullpen (per Gelb). For now, Walker will prepare to compete for a bullpen job and provide additional starting depth in case of injury. Still, one has to presume the Phillies are looking for any way to offload his contract this winter. He is set to earn $36MM over the next two seasons.

Cuas did not appear in a game with the Phillies in 2024. After beginning his career with the Royals in 2022, he was traded to the Cubs at the deadline in 2023. Chicago DFA’d him this past June, and the Blue Jays claimed him off of waivers. Toronto would DFA him as well before the end of the year, and although the Phillies claimed him in September, they optioned him to Triple-A and never called him up. The right-hander has a career 4.37 ERA and 4.43 SIERA in 119 1/3 innings. He also has two option years remaining. That should help him find a new club to sign him as a depth arm for 2025.

Rickey Henderson Passes Away

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Baseball Hall of Famer and stolen base king Rickey Henderson has passed away. He was 65. Henderson’s friend and teammate Dave Winfield was among those to announce the tragic news, which was later confirmed by the New York Post.

Henderson was born in Chicago on Christmas Day in 1958. However, he spent much of his childhood in Oakland. The Athletics arrived in the city not long after Henderson, and once he finished high school, his hometown team called his name in the fourth round of the 1976 MLB draft. Three years after that, he arrived at the Oakland–Alameda County Coliseum to make his major league debut.

Following an underwhelming rookie season, Henderson broke out with a superstar performance in 1980. The 21-year-old outfielder showed off terrific bat-to-ball skills and a sharp eye at the plate, ranking third among qualified batters in walk rate and OBP. Of course, he put that OBP to good use, leading the majors with 100 stolen bases. It was the first of six times he would lead the majors in steals, and the first of 12 times he’d lead the American League in the category. He also made his first of 10 All-Star teams that summer and finished 10th in MVP voting that fall. In retrospect, however, he deserved to finish much higher. According to both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference, the only AL player with a higher WAR that season was MVP George Brett.

Henderson was even better in his third season, the strike-shortened 1981 campaign. He led the majors in runs scored and led the AL in hits and stolen bases. At the end of the year, he won a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger. However, he was still, arguably, overlooked in MVP voting. He finished a close second behind Brewers closer Rollie Fingers, but modern stats like fWAR and bWAR suggest he was the most productive player in the American League that season. Indeed, this was often the story of Henderson’s career. He was consistently excellent year in and year out, and although he received no shortage of praise and acclaim, he was still somehow overlooked. He made 10 All-Star teams and won three Silver Sluggers, one Gold Glove, and one MVP. Yet, all that might not have been enough to properly recognize his greatness.

Henderson became a star in his early twenties. He remained productive on the field into his forties. Over his 15 best seasons from 1980-94, he was almost undeniably the best player in baseball. Whether you look at runs scored, stolen bases, fWAR, or bWAR, no other player was anywhere close to as productive. With his combination of speed, defensive range, contact skills, plate discipline, and eventually above-average power, he could impact a ballgame in all sorts of ways. He is best remembered as the all-time and modern-era single-season stolen base leader, but he also holds the all-time MLB records for runs, unintentional walks, and leadoff home runs.

In addition to those career accolades, Henderson was a transformational player in the postseason. A two-time World Series champion who hoisted the Commissioner’s Trophy for both Oakland in 1989 and Toronto in 1993, his 11 stolen bases during the 1989 postseason is tied with Kenny Lofton for the most steals by a player in a single postseason, and his 33 career steals in the playoffs were the most by a player in history until Lofton broke that record during the 2007 ALCS.

In addition to the havoc Henderson caused on the basepaths, he was a prolific hitter when the lights were brightest with a .284/.389/.441 slash line in 60 postseason games. Impressive as that work in the playoffs is, Henderson’s work during his 14 career World Series games boggles the mind: he hit .339/.448/.607 with more walks than strikeouts while going seven-for-nine on the basepaths. Those incredible numbers translate to a 194 wRC+ that leaves him sandwiched between Babe Ruth (195) and Lou Gehrig (194) on the career leaderboard for wRC+ in the World Series among players who made at least 60 trips to the plate during the Fall Classic.

While Henderson was the greatest player of the ’80s and early ’90s, the legend of the game kept his career going well past the age where most players hang up the spikes. After his age-35 season in Oakland, Henderson went on to play in an additional 1,001 games in the majors while bouncing between the A’s, Padres, Angels, Mets, Mariners, Padres, Red Sox, and Dodgers. Those final nine years of Henderson’s career were naturally not on the level of his seemingly superhuman peak in Oakland the Bronx, but he remained a productive player through the end of his major league career. From 1995 through 2003, Henderson hit .254/.390/.369 with a 111 wRC+ while swiping 289 bags, making him well above average both at the plate and on the basepaths. Even during his 30-game stint with the Dodgers at the age of 44, Henderson produced above replacement-level value according to both Fangraphs (0.1 fWAR) and Baseball Reference (0.2 bWAR).

Henderson continued playing in Independent Leagues even after he played his final major league game as posted an .897 OPS in the Atlantic League and an .856 OPS in the Golden League before calling it a career in 2005 at the age of 46. The love of the game that caused him to continue playing in indy ball following the end of his big league career also led him to leave the door open to returning to a major league field even after his playing days were behind him. He maintained an interest in suiting up for a major league team again after being hired by the Mets as a hitting instructor in 2006 and famously suggested following his first-ballot induction into the Hall of Fame back in 2009 that even at the age of 50 he could lead the league in stolen bases.

It’s that heart and love of the game that endeared Henderson to his teammates, coaches, and all those around the game who interacted with him while making him beloved by millions of fans around the world. Henderson’s otherworldly talent and passion for the game led him to collect 3,055 hits, steal 1,406 bases, score 2,295 runs, swat 873 extra-base hits, and manage a career .401 on-base percentage in his 3,081 games as a major league player. MLBTR extends our condolences to Henderson’s family, friends, and teammates as we join the rest of the baseball world in mourning his passing.

Tigers, Guardians Interested In Erick Fedde, Steven Matz

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As reported by John Denton, Mark Feinsand, and Bryan Hoch of MLB.com, the Tigers and Guardians have both expressed interest in trading for Cardinals starting pitchers Erick Fedde and Steven Matz. Both pitchers seemed to be likely trade candidates entering the offseason, but this is the first report to link either pitcher to specific suitors.

As the Cardinals look to shed payroll and kickstart a retooling effort, just about all of their veteran players look like possible trade chips. Nolan Arenado has generated much of the buzz so far, but his contract isn’t the only one St. Louis could look to offload. After Arenado, the next highest-paid players on the roster are Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, and Willson Contreras. However, all three have no-trade clauses in their contracts, and all three have expressed a desire to stay in St. Louis. Thus, Matz and Fedde could be the next players who president of baseball operations John Mozeliak looks to flip. Those trades wouldn’t come with quite as much salary relief – Matz will make $12.5MM and Fedde will make $7.5MM in 2025 – but they might be easier to pull off. Not only is less money involved, but neither Matz nor Fedde has the right to reject a trade.

Any trade involving Matz would likely be a salary dump. In other words, the Cardinals should not expect to get any notable players back in return. As he enters his age-34 campaign, Matz is coming off one of the worst seasons of his career. In 12 games (seven starts), he pitched to a 5.08 ERA and 4.63 SIERA. His strikeout-to-walk ratio was the lowest it’s ever been. To make matters worse, he missed four months of the year nursing a lower back strain.

While Matz has been a productive starting pitcher in the not-so-distant past, he has struggled with injuries and inconsistency throughout his career. He has spent time on the IL in every season since his rookie year and has never thrown enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. His 3.86 ERA and 4.19 SIERA over 105 innings in 2023 are a reminder that he can be a valuable contributor to a big league rotation. Yet, as Matz enters his mid-thirties, concerns about his durability and potential decline will only increase. All that to say, his $12.5MM salary is probably more than he could command on the open market. If the Cardinals want another team to take on that salary, they won’t be able to ask for much in return.

As for Fedde, the Cardinals wouldn’t get as much salary relief in a trade, but they could bring back some talent to help in 2025 and beyond. Although Fedde has had injury and inconsistency problems of his own, he is two years younger than Matz and coming off of two consecutive strong seasons. He also comes $5MM cheaper.

Fedde was little more than an innings eater for the Nationals from 2017-22. However, he reinvented himself in the KBO in 2023, winning the MVP Award and signing a two-year, $15MM deal with the White Sox last winter. While he wasn’t an MVP-caliber player in 2024, he produced what was easily the best season of his MLB career, pitching 177 1/3 innings with a 3.30 ERA and 4.19 SIERA. He didn’t excel in any one area, but he limited walks and hard contact at better-than-average rates and tossed at least five innings in 27 of his 31 starts. If he repeats that performance in 2025, he’d be an upgrade for just about every contending team’s starting rotation.

As far as contending teams go, Cleveland and Detroit have two of the weaker rotations. With Shane Bieber still recovering from Tommy John surgery, the Guardians only have three locks for the rotation: Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, and Ben Lively. The Tigers are in a similar position with several question marks after Tarik Skubal, Reese Olson, and Alex Cobb. With that said, it’s still surprising to see these two teams linked to Fedde and Matz. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reported during the Winter Meetings that the Tigers were not “planning to pursue additional starting pitchers” after signing Cobb. He quotes general manager Jeff Greenberg, who said “I think we’re probably done for now.”

As for the Guardians, it’s a question of money as usual. It’s especially rare to see this team spend significant money on pitching because they have done such a good job of developing talented arms internally. Thus, Matz, in particular, seems to be an unexpected target; he would become the highest-paid pitcher on the roster. However, a deal with Cleveland could make more sense if St. Louis is willing to eat some salary to receive a more talented return package.

Royals, Junior Fernández Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Royals have signed right-handed pitcher Junior Fernández to a minor league deal, the team announced. He last pitched in MLB during the 2022 season.

Fernández signed with the Cardinals as an international free agent in 2014 and made his MLB debut in St. Louis five years later. Unfortunately, he was never able to establish himself in the Cardinals bullpen. Over parts of four seasons with the club, he pitched to a 5.51 ERA and 4.78 SIERA in 50 2/3 innings of mostly low-leverage work.

The Cardinals designated Fernández for assignment in 2022, and the Pirates scooped him up off of waivers. He made three scoreless appearances for Pittsburgh at the end of the year, but it wasn’t enough to save him from another DFA. After a brief stint in the Yankees organization that offseason, Fernández was DFA’d once again. The Blue Jays were the next team to claim him, and, as he surely came to expect, the next team to DFA him just a few weeks later. This time, however, Fernández passed through waivers. The Blue Jays sent him outright to the minors, where he pitched to a 5.69 ERA and 5.92 FIP in 42 games with Triple-A Buffalo. Toronto released him before the year was up, and he spent the final weeks of the season pitching at Triple-A in the Nationals organization. His 2.79 ERA in 9 2/3 innings was more impressive, but his matching 13.6% strikeout and walk rates were ugly.

Following the 2023 campaign, Fernández elected free agency and signed with the Chiba Lotte Marines of NPB. Unfortunately, his career overseas was short-lived. An injury limited him to just two appearances in Japan before the Marines released him.

Now entering his age-28 season, Fernández will look to get back to the majors with the Royals. Whether or not he succeeds will likely depend on his arm health and velocity. In 2022, Fernández was averaging close to 99 mph and regularly hitting triple digits with both his sinker and his four-seam fastball. Despite his control issues, velocity like that is enough to make him an intriguing arm. However, his velocity was down a tick while he was pitching at Triple-A in 2023. Now, his mostly lost 2024 season makes it hard to predict what to expect from his arm in 2025. That said, the Royals presumably scouted him in the Dominican League, where he’s been pitching this winter. Despite his 6.43 ERA and 16.2% walk rate in 14 innings of work, they must have liked what they saw enough to bring him on board as bullpen depth for the 2025 season.

Marlins Make Two Additions To Coaching Staff

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The Marlins are in the process of filling several vacancies on manager Clayton McCullough’s coaching staff. Earlier this week, they reportedly hired Tyler Smarslok to be their new first base coach. They also promoted Brandon Mann from the position of pitching strategist to bullpen coach. Both moves were reported by Isaac Azout of Fish On First. The team has not yet confirmed the news.

Smarslok, 32, spent several years working with college teams before the Twins organization hired him in 2020. He coached for the Triple-A St. Paul Saints over the past four seasons. In addition, he managed the Salt River Rafters of the Arizona Fall League earlier this year. His job with the Marlins will be his first major league gig. Smarslok replaces previous first base coach Jon Jay.

Mann, 40, enjoyed a long professional pitching career. A southpaw, he played parts of 12 seasons in the minors with the Rays, Dodgers, Pirates, A’s, and Rangers organizations and made a handful of big league appearances with Texas in 2018 – 16 years after he was taken in the 27th round of the draft. He also spent time in NPB, the CPBL, the Atlantic League, and the American Association. Following his retirement from playing, he briefly served as minor league pitching coordinator for the Lotte Giants of the KBO before returning stateside to work at Driveline Baseball. After two years at Driveline, he took a job as the pitching strategist for the Marlins for the 2024 season. He will now take over for Wellington Cepeda as Miami’s bullpen coach.

Back in October, the Marlins announced they would not bring back any of their coaches for the 2025 season. Since hiring McCullough to lead the squad, they have brought on Carson Vitale as bench coach, Pedro Guerrero as hitting coach, Daniel Moskos as pitching coach, and Derek Shomon as assistant hitting coach. Smarslok and Mann are the newest additions to the staff.

Phillies Notes: Kepler, Further Offseason Moves, Sasaki

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The Phillies might have already made their biggest moves of the offseason. On Friday, the team announced the signing of outfielder Max Kepler to a one-year, $10MM deal. Kepler’s is the second major league contract Philadelphia has given out this winter; they signed right-handed reliever Jordan Romano to a one-year, $8.5MM guarantee earlier this month. At a recent press conference, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski suggested those two signings are likely his primary offseason additions.

The executive spoke favorably of Kepler, praising his selectivity and bat-to-ball skills. According to Baseball Savant, the Phillies ranked among the bottom half of teams in contact and chase rate in 2024. Evidently, Dombrowski is hoping Kepler will help to fix that problem. His chase rate was below average this past year but typically ranks among the top 25% of the league. Meanwhile, his contact rate has been above average in every season of his career.

Kepler will slot into the lineup as the primary left fielder. Although he has never played the position at the MLB level, Dombrowski has no concerns about his ability to quickly pick it up. He has graded out as an excellent defensive right fielder throughout his career. Of more concern than Kepler’s ability to play left field is his ability to hit left-handed pitching. The lefty batter had reverse platoon splits in 2024 but has often struggled against southpaws in his career. Dombrowski makes it clear that Kepler won’t just be the strong side of a platoon in Philadelphia. However, the POBO identifies the righty-batting Weston Wilson as someone who could occasionally cover for Kepler with a tough lefty on the mound. Johan Rojas is another righty-batting outfielder on the roster, but he’ll most likely be busy covering for center fielder Brandon Marsh, another lefty-batting outfielder with poor platoon splits.

While Dombrowski spoke highly of Kepler, he acknowledged that his new signing is coming off a down year. It’s debatable how true that is; Kepler’s .682 OPS and 94 wRC+ in 2024 were a big step down from his .816 OPS and 123 wRC+ in 2023, but right in line with his .694 OPS and 95 wRC+ from 2021-22. The version of Kepler on display in 2024 might be closer to his true talents than the version we saw in 2023. Regardless, Dombrowski offered some insight into why the outfielder took a step back in 2024 and why the Phillies are optimistic he’ll improve in 2025. Kepler was playing through a core muscle injury for much of the 2024 season. However, he had surgery to repair the issue this offseason and has already recovered. Phillies hitting coach Kevin Long watched him swing earlier, and Dombrowski suggests Long was pleased with what he saw.

While Kepler and Romano are both looking to bounce back from injuries in 2025, Dombrowski would not characterize either signing as bargain bin shopping. He emphasized that Kepler and Romano are simply two players the team wanted – indeed, he says they have liked Kepler for quite a while – and it was the players themselves who sought one-year deals. It seems that both are hoping to boost their value and re-enter the free agent market next offseason.

On a similar note, Dombrowski also denied that he is working under strict payroll constraints. That said, he did make it quite clear that he almost certainly isn’t looking to sign any additional impact free agents. If that proves to be true, this would be the first offseason in Dombrowski’s tenure with the Phillies that he didn’t sign a free agent to a nine-figure contract. However, Philadelphia’s payroll is still projected to increase by more than $30MM to a franchise-record $280MM in 2025 (per RosterResource). That’s largely because the three-year, $126MM extension Zack Wheeler signed this past March will begin next year. In other words, one could argue that Dombrowski did sign a nine-figure deal this offseason – he just did it several months early.

As for smaller additions to improve the team along the margins, Dombrowski identifies two needs: one more position player for the bench and a swingman for the pitching staff. Currently, the Phillies have three bench players who seem to be locks for the Opening Day roster: utility infielder Edmundo Sosa, fourth outfielder Rojas, and backup catcher Garrett Stubbs. They could use one more option who can play both the infield and the outfield. While Dombrowski doesn’t eliminate the possibility of seeking an external upgrade, he suggests the Phillies are more likely to stick with their internal candidates. He names Wilson, Kody Clemens, and Buddy Kennedy as three players who could fill that role from within the organization.

Wilson has the most MLB success of the trio, albeit in a small sample size, and Dombrowski mentioned his name multiple times during the presser. The only thing working against his chances of making the Opening Day roster right now is the fact that he still has one option year remaining. Clemens and Kennedy are out of options, which means the Phillies would risk losing them through waivers if they don’t put them on the active roster. On the other hand, Clemens is at a disadvantage as another lefty bat, while Kennedy has very limited professional experience playing the outfield.

Turning to the pitching staff, Dombrowski is more likely to look outside the organization for an upgrade. Ideally, he’d like an arm that could potentially take the fifth spot in the rotation but could also pitch out of the bullpen if Taijuan Walker wins the fifth starter job out of camp. That seems to describe someone like Spencer Turnbull, who the Phillies signed for one year and $2MM last offseason. Turnbull made seven starts and 10 relief appearances for Philadelphia before suffering a season-ending injury. Jakob Junis could be an intriguing option to fill that role in 2025. The 32-year-old righty has made 27 starts and 60 relief appearances over the past three years, pitching to a 3.80 ERA and 3.62 SIERA.

The Phillies currently have six locks for the Opening Day bullpen. Dombrowski describes Romano, Matt Strahm, José Alvarado, and Orion Kerkering as back-end arms, and he identifies Tanner Banks and José Ruiz as middle-inning relievers the team likes. That leaves two bullpen spots open. One spot would presumably go to the aforementioned swingman. The other will most likely remain up for grabs entering spring training. Dombrowski mentioned Max Lazar as one possibility to win the job. The righty struggled in a handful of big league appearances this past year but excelled in the minors.

One final point of interest from Dombrowski’s press conference was his brief discussion of NPB phenom Roki Sasaki. The executive made it clear the Phillies would love to engage in further discussions with Sasaki and his team, but at this time, Philadelphia has not been invited to do so. That’s not entirely surprising – the Phillies never seemed like a frontrunner in the Sasaki sweepstakes – but it’s still a disappointing update.

Where Will Pete Alonso End Up?

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There is no doubt this year’s free agent market has moved slower for position players than it has for pitchers. While 17 pitchers have signed deals worth at least $5MM, only nine position players can say the same – and five of them are catchers. Even with that in mind, the rumor mill has been strangely quiet for one top free agent in particular: All-Star first baseman Pete Alonso.

MLB Trade Rumors ranked Alonso as the seventh-best free agent of the offseason on our annual Top 50 Free Agents list. He was the top first baseman available and, arguably, the second-best pure hitter, behind only Juan Soto. We predicted he’d sign a five-year, $125MM contract. Yet, we haven’t had many opportunities to write about Alonso ever since. Over the past six weeks, the Mets are the only team that has clearly and repeatedly expressed interest in the two-time Home Run Derby champion. Their crosstown rivals are the only other team to be publically linked to Alonso.

Not so long ago, Alonso would have been one of the most sought-after free agents on the market, and his potential contract would have been much easier to predict. After all, he is one of the most powerful (and durable) hitters in the game. He has averaged 43 home runs and 112 RBI per 162 games throughout his career. However, teams look at a lot more than just home runs and RBIs these days. They’re also less likely to pay for past performance. Thus, as Alonso approaches his age-30 season coming off two consecutive down years, it’s not hard to imagine why teams might be hesitant to meet his presumptive nine-figure demands. Earlier this offseason, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco wrote about why Alonso’s contract was one of the hardest to predict for the Top 50 list.

Even so, it’s impossible to deny that Alonso is one of the premier power hitters in the game. Over the past two seasons, down years by his own standards, Alonso ranks fifth among all hitters with 80 home runs. His 121 wRC+ in that span is 21% better than league average. Only a handful of players are capable of swinging the bat faster or hitting the ball harder than the Polar Bear. In other words, he is still going to find a lucrative contract this winter, even if he has to wait a little longer for his market to heat up.

Let’s take a closer look at every team’s chances of signing Alonso.

Likely Suitors (listed alphabetically)

Astros: The Astros freed up some payroll (approximately $8.9MM) by trading star outfielder Kyle Tucker to the Cubs and taking on third baseman Isaac Paredes, among others, in return. Adding Paredes won’t necessarily stop Houston from pursuing Alex Bregman, since Paredes could slide over to first base in deference to Bregman, the superior defender. However, this trade makes it more likely the Astros will look to add a new first baseman instead.

Houston has needed a new first baseman since optioning and subsequently releasing José Abreu earlier this year. The team has already expressed interest in Christian Walker, but Alonso could be another target, especially if Bregman signs elsewhere. The Astros reportedly offered Bregman a six-year, $156MM deal earlier this winter. It’s no surprise Bregman turned that number down, but it would probably be enough to land Alonso. That’s not to say the Astros would be willing to spend the same amount for Alonso as they would for Bregman, but at least it suggests that GM Dana Brown has the necessary funds to get a deal done.

Mets: The Mets have always seemed like strong contenders to retain their homegrown slugger. Although winning the Juan Soto sweepstakes may have reduced the pressure on David Stearns to make any other big additions to the offense, it’s not as if signing Soto precludes the Mets from re-signing Alonso. For one thing, the team’s projected payroll for 2025 is still far below where it was in 2023 and ’24. There might be a payroll number even Steve Cohen won’t spend past, but Stearns has tens of millions to work with before that could possibly become an issue.

Stearns also needs to think about how he’s going to address the holes at first base and DH that free agents Alonso and J.D. Martinez left behind. Mark Vientos is an option to play first, but he held the third base job in 2024. His defense was graded poorly there but the Mets could be better off if Vientos can hold down a more valuable defensive position. Last week, Cohen noted that the Mets are “still engaged” in contract discussions with Alonso.

Nationals: There’s a reason why Tim Dierkes, Anthony Franco, and Darragh McDonald all predicted Alonso would sign with Washington on our Top 50 list. Several promising young Nationals players took big steps forward in 2024. Perhaps that will encourage ownership and the front office to make a big splash this offseason as the Nats look to get back into contention. Keibert Ruiz is currently the only player on the roster with a guaranteed contract, and RosterResource estimates the club’s 2025 payroll is currently $52MM lower than the team’s final payroll in 2024.

Furthermore, first base is wide open in Washington. Joey Gallo and Joey Meneses, who combined to play more than 100 games at first for the Nationals this past season, are out of the organization. Juan Yepez is the most likely internal option to play first base in 2025, but he has not done enough over parts of three big league seasons to warrant an everyday role. President of baseball operations Mike Rizzo has said the club is looking for middle-of-the-order bats and Alonso would certainly fit the bill.

Yankees: Aside from the Mets, the Yankees are the only other team to be credibly linked to Alonso. Early in November, Brian Cashman told Mike Puma of the New York Post that he had spoken to agent Scott Boras about his slugging client. However, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi recently suggested the Yankees would prefer to sign a first baseman on a shorter deal, describing Walker as “more of a priority.”

Nonetheless, it certainly seems like Alonso is still on the table in the Bronx. That should be true even after the Yankees acquired Cody Bellinger from the Cubs on Tuesday. Bellinger can play first base, but he’s more useful to the team in the outfield; he can play center field, allowing Aaron Judge to move back to right. Thus, this team could still use a replacement for Anthony Rizzo at first. Ben Rice, who hit .171/.264/.349 over 50 games in his rookie season, and DJ LeMahieu, who hit .204/.269/.259 in his age-35 campaign, are currently the best in-house options.

With a projected $270MM payroll for 2025 (per RosterResource), the Yanks are still about $33MM under their final estimate from 2024. And while they have made several additions, including Bellinger, Max Fried, and Devin Williams, they still have work to do to replace an incredible talent like Soto. That’s especially true when it comes to the offense.

Plausible/On-Paper Dark Horses

Blue Jays: The Blue Jays have money to spend and a strong desire to add star power. Alonso isn’t on the same level as some of Toronto’s top targets this winter (including Soto, Fried, and Corbin Burnes), but presumably, the Blue Jays will keep trying until they sign somebody if they continue to lose out on star free agents. To that end, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports that “Everyone in the [Blue Jays] organization” believes the offense would look a lot more dangerous with another “legitimate slugger.”

The only thing keeping the Blue Jays out of the “likely suitors” category is the fact that they already have a superstar first baseman: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. However, the two could split first and DH this coming year with Alonso taking over at first if Guerrero leaves in free agency following the 2025 season.

Diamondbacks: The Diamondbacks were one of the best offensive teams in MLB this past year, but they lost two of their best hitters to free agency in Walker and Joc Pederson. Alonso could help to make up for much of that missing production. However, if the D-backs are indeed planning to keep payroll at a similar level in 2025, they only have about $24MM to spend, according to the estimates from RosterResource. That might not be enough for them to make a serious run at Alonso, especially if they’re planning to address any other areas of need this winter. Then again, GM Mike Hazen could free up some cash if he can find a way to offload Jordan Montgomery’s contract.

Giants: New president of baseball operations Buster Posey is clearly trying to get the Giants back into contention as soon as possible; he already signed Willy Adames and has expressed serious interest in Burnes as well. Pitching will probably remain his priority even if he misses out on Burnes. Still, if Posey is considering Burnes, that means he has the funds to make a run at Alonso. LaMonte Wade Jr. was San Francisco’s primary first baseman in 2024, but the team is reportedly willing to make him available in a trade.

Reds: The Reds are the darkest horse here. They don’t have a clear hole at first base for Alonso, and it’s unclear how much they’re willing to spend this offseason. That said, they could badly use the offense if they want to contend in 2025. New manager Terry Francona could make room for Alonso at first by putting Spencer Steer in left field, Jeimer Candelario at third, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand at DH. And while Cincinnati’s front office hasn’t committed to increasing payroll this winter, they haven’t outwardly shut down the possibility either.

Tigers: Despite such a strong finish in 2024, the Tigers haven’t given their fanbase much reason to believe they’ll spend big to improve this winter. However, if they are going to spend – and they really should – Alonso would be a great fit for the lineup. POBO Scott Harris has acknowledged his team could use another right-handed bat and that Spencer Torkelson’s job at first base is far from secure. A reliable righty bat like Alonso would be a big upgrade over Torkelson and a strong addition to a lefty-heavy Detroit lineup. While the Tigers haven’t been big spenders recently, they’ve run higher payrolls in the not-so-distant past.

Unlikely/Not Happening

Angels: The Angels have been active this offseason, but first base doesn’t seem to be at the top of their priority list. Former first-round pick Nolan Schanuel was mediocre in his first full MLB season, but presumably, the Angels haven’t given up on the young first baseman just yet. Meanwhile, Jorge Soler is penciled in at DH, and Anthony Rendon, Mike Trout, and Travis d’Arnaud could see some time there as well.

Athletics: The A’s could theoretically make room for Alonso at first base/DH by having Brent Rooker play more outfield and Tyler Soderstrom catch more often, but it’s far from a perfect fit. While this team might need to keep spending to avoid an MLBPA grievance, there are better uses for that money.

Braves: With Matt Olson at first base and Marcell Ozuna as their designated hitter, the Braves have no need or room for Alonso.

Brewers: The Brewers have been linked to at least one veteran first baseman this offseason; according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, they’re interested in Paul Goldschmidt. However, they’re not usually in play for more expensive free agents like Alonso. Milwaukee hasn’t signed a free agent for more than $35MM or more than three years since Lorenzo Cain in 2018. Even a modest splash on Goldschmidt might require them to offload the Rhys Hoskins contract.

Cardinals: Willson Contreras will be the Cardinals’ full-time first baseman going forward. Even if that weren’t the case, St. Louis is highly unlikely to sign any long-term contracts this winter.

Cubs: Chicago already made a big offensive addition this offseason, trading for Tucker last week. In order to make room for Alonso, the Cubs would most likely have to trade first baseman Michael Busch or presumptive DH Seiya Suzuki. After trading Bellinger to the Yankees, there’s no indication they’re planning to do that.

Dodgers: The Dodgers need Alonso even less than the Braves, thanks to their MVP first baseman Freddie Freeman and MVP DH Shohei Ohtani.

Guardians: On the rare occasions the Guardians have spent significant money in free agency, it has often been for a defensively limited slugger – think Josh Bell, Yonder Alonso, and Edwin Encarnacion. That said, a contract for Pete Alonso would easily be the biggest this front office has ever handed out to a free agent. What’s more, Alonso would only fit in Cleveland if the team were to trade current first baseman Josh Naylor. It would seem counterproductive for the Guardians to deal Naylor and his projected $12MM salary only to turn around and sign Alonso.

Mariners: The Mariners are looking for a righty-batting first baseman, and Alonso would certainly be a nice offensive upgrade for a team that struggled to score runs in 2024. Still, their reported interest in players like Carlos Santana and Justin Turner suggests they aren’t in the market for a bigger free agent addition. The M’s might be planning to increase payroll in 2025, but signing a big name like Alonso still seems unlikely. They haven’t signed a free agent hitter to a contract worth more than $25MM since Nelson Cruz a decade ago.

Marlins: Sure, the Marlins could use Alonso. They could use just about every available free agent. That said, this team is highly unlikely to pursue any free agents who aren’t one-year stopgaps/veterans to flip at the trade deadline.

Orioles: GM Mike Elias has already signed his slugger to replace Anthony Santander, and he went with outfielder Tyler O’Neill. That leaves the O’s with a bit of a logjam at first base/DH, where Ryan Mountcastle, Ryan O’Hearn, and Heston Kjerstad could all vie for playing time. Elias might make a trade to clear that up, but even so, Baltimore’s payroll is already significantly higher than it was last year, and another big signing for the offense seems improbable.

Padres: The Padres have room for Alonso, especially if they trade Luis Arraez, and they could use a big bat to replace Jurickson Profar. However, POBO A.J. Preller is operating under tight payroll constraints this winter. Even for Preller, who always seems to have a surprise up his sleeve, Alonso doesn’t seem like a realistic target.

Phillies: The Phillies fall into the Braves/Dodgers camp. Their two best hitters, Bryce Harper (1B) and Kyle Schwarber (DH), already occupy the only positions Alonso could fill.

Pirates: Like the Nationals, the Pirates are an up-and-coming young team with room for a veteran bat at first base. Unlike the Nationals, however, the Pirates have never been big players on the free agent market. There’s a good chance they’re planning to run with recent trade acquisition Spencer Horwitz at first base in 2025.

Rangers: With the addition of Jake Burger, the Rangers don’t really have room for Alonso in the lineup. Given their desire to slip beneath the luxury tax in 2025, they probably don’t have the payroll space either. First baseman Nathaniel Lowe has come up in loose trade rumors this offseason, but it wouldn’t really make sense for Texas to part with the cost-controlled Lowe to sign Alonso. Both players have been similarly productive over the past three years. Moreover, the Rangers are reportedly seeking a left-handed bat. Trading the lefty-batting Lowe to sign the righty-batting Alonso would only set them back in that respect.

Rays: Even if the Rays were finally going to shock the baseball world and sign a top free agent to a nine-figure contract, Alonso probably wouldn’t be their guy. According to wRC+, Tampa Bay’s cost-controlled first baseman Yandy Díaz has outperformed Alonso at the plate in each of the past three seasons.

Red Sox: Boston already has money to spend but a cluttered first base and DH mix. Rafael Devers is a poor defender at third and the club has considered moving him over to first. But since they have Triston Casas there and Masataka Yoshida likely taking up a lot of DH time, it’s led to rumors of Casas being available on the trading block. Signing Alonso would be an expensive way of further crowding that situation.

Rockies: You can’t completely count out the Rockies – this is the team that signed Kris Bryant to a $182MM deal just a few years ago – but there is no reason to believe Colorado is in on any of the top free agents this year. After Charlie Blackmon’s retirement, Bryant is likely to get most of the reps at DH in 2025, while the Rockies surely want to see what they have in Michael Toglia at first base.

Royals: The Royals could use the offense, but they’re highly unlikely to spend what it will take to land Alonso. On top of that, they already have a full-time first baseman in Vinnie Pasquantino. With players like Jonathan India and Salvador Perez already on the roster, Kansas City probably isn’t looking for a full-time DH.

Twins: The Twins could use a first baseman to replace Carlos Santana, but Alonso is almost surely out of their price range. RosterResource already projects their 2025 payroll to be $12MM higher than the final estimate from 2024.

White Sox: Not happening.

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