Mark Polishuk | MLB Trade Rumors

NL East Notes: Morton, Braves, Allan, Nationals

By Mark Polishuk | February 19, 2022 at 5:49pm CDT

As Charlie Morton continues to recover from a fractured fibula, the veteran righty said last week that he is “mostly caught up” to where he’d be physically at this point in a normal offseason, The Athletic’s David O’Brien writes. Morton did caution that he wouldn’t know for sure until he actually got back to regular action in a Spring Training environment, though for now, all seems good for Morton as he approaches his 15th Major League season. Still in fine form last year, Morton was a big contributor to the Braves’ championship team, though the righty’s participation in the World Series was limited to just 2 1/3 innings after he was hit in the leg by a ball off the bat of Yuli Gurriel during Game One. Three of Morton’s seven outs were recorded after the injury, as Morton gutted out the pain as long as he could.

Assuming Morton is healthy, he’ll represent one less question mark for an Atlanta roster that is already largely set (with the obvious exception of first base and the Freddie Freeman situation). With the lockout now forcing some type of shortened or even a rushed Spring Training, this could play to the Braves’ favor, as they already have a familiar chemistry between the coaching staff and the players, plus most of the World Series-winning core group will be returning.

AL Notes: Crochet, Johnson, Guardians

By Mark Polishuk | February 19, 2022 at 3:45pm CDT

Garrett Crochet is slated to be a big part of the White Sox pitching mix in 2022, even if his longer-term role is still up in the air. The Sox certainly have designs on eventually moving the 11th overall pick of the 2020 draft into the rotation, though the reigning AL Central champions already have a tentative starting five in place for the coming season. Plus, “it sure seems like the White Sox can little afford to leave Crochet out of their 2022 bullpen plans,” NBC Sports Chicago’s Vinnie Duber writes, as Craig Kimbrel is a popular trade candidate and the club might need Crochet to provide further depth and quality in the relief corps.

Because of the canceled 2020 minor league season, Crochet has never made even a single appearance in a minor league game, going right from the draft to Chicago’s alternate training site in 2020 and then onto the big league roster. In theory, at least a short stint in the minors would help Crochet get properly stretched out as a starter and acclimated to rotation work, though then he wouldn’t be available to provide immediate help for a White Sox team that plans to contend this year. Stretching him out during the season has its own set of pros and cons, as that tactic also wouldn’t necessarily mean Crochet was being used in optimal fashion towards helping the Sox win games. Duber figures the team’s post-lockout moves will provide a hint to Crochet’s role, since if the White Sox added some other relief depth, Crochet could then be transitioned more smoothly to starting pitching.

MLBPA Drops Push For Universal Two-Year Arbitration, Expands Pre-Arb Bonus Pool In Latest CBA Offer

By Mark Polishuk | February 17, 2022 at 4:47pm CDT

4:47 pm: MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes observes (on Twitter) that the union’s proposed Super Two expansion — had it been in effect this winter — would have gotten around 79 more players to their first year of arbitration. However, Dierkes notes that MLB seemingly remains unwilling to alter the existing Super Two setup in any form.

1:18 pm: Today’s collective bargaining meeting between representatives from the league and the MLB Players Association lasted only 15 minutes, though deputy commissioner Dan Halem and MLBPA chief negotiator Bruce Meyer continued speaking in a side meeting for about 20 minutes afterward (according to The Athletic’s Evan Drellich).

The session appeared to center around two new proposals put forward by the union, as per several reporters (including ESPN’s Jeff Passan and The Washington Post’s Chelsea Janes). The MLBPA had been looking to move the qualifying threshold for arbitration eligibility to two-plus years of service time rather than the current threshold of three-plus years plus all Super Two-eligible players. Now, the union has now dropped that demand and replaced it with a large increase in the number of players who would be eligible for Super Two status. In the previous CBA, the top 22 percent of players who had between two and three years of service time became Super Two-eligible, and thus eligible for a fourth year of salary arbitration — today’s proposal saw the MLBPA ask that 80 percent of players now qualify as Super Twos.

In addition, the union also actually increased the amount of the bonus pool it wants devoted to pre-arbitration players. Whereas the MLBPA began with a $105MM figure and lowered it to $100MM in subsequent talks with the owners, the union has now bumped that asking price up to $115MM. This number reflects the larger number of players that the MLBPA wants to be eligible for extra money in this bonus pool, with the union wanting the top 150 players as averaged by fWAR and bWAR. In the owners’ previous offer, the top 30 pre-arb players would be eligible for a $15MM bonus pool.

Whether these changes by the MLBPA constitute a significant move in MLB’s direction will, of course, lie in the eye of the beholder. Simply moving from all two+ players being arbitration eligible to 80% of them could move a large amount of money toward MLB, and likely is viewed by the players as a significant concession.

Given how the league has been adamantly against any changes to arbitration eligibility, the MLBPA’s request for such a big increase in Super Two eligibility is likely to be flatly denied. Where this might lead, however, is some increase in the Super Two threshold whatsoever. Even if the 80% number is viewed by MLB as an extreme ask, if the owners counter with a smaller increase, the two sides might eventually find some level of acceptable common ground between 22% and 80%.

Getting the league to budge even slightly off their position of not altering the arbitration eligibility would count as some level of a win for the union, as it would help achieve their goal of getting more money to players at an earlier point in their careers. It would also set impacted players up for more money through the arbitration process as a whole, given the larger number of players getting a fourth arb year and then subsequent raises in their other three arb years.

The increase in the bonus pool figure is tied to both the Super Two ask and that broader “get more money to more younger players” goal. Because that $115MM would now be spread over 150 players instead of $100MM over 30 players, more pre-arbitration players would get some extra cash. However, as observed by Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat, this overall proposal from the union actually counts as a concession to the owners, since it would somewhat lower the bar for future arbitration cases in general.

The MLBPA did not alter their previous demands for increases to the luxury tax (to $245MM for the initial threshold) and to the minimum salary (to $775K), according to The Score’s Travis Sawchik. Beyond the 80% Super Two demand and the $115MM bonus pool, it doesn’t appear as if the union made any other changes from its previous offers — and as for today’s new proposal, the league “was not excited,” Janes tweets. It isn’t known when the two sides will next meet in regards to the bigger-picture economic issues or when MLB might counter the players’ current offer, though Janes reports that the league and MLBPA are slated to meet tomorrow to talk about non-economic issues.

Blue Jays “Very Interested” In Tyler Mahle Prior To Lockout

By Mark Polishuk | February 17, 2022 at 4:29pm CDT

4:29 pm: The Jays also had interest in Gray and Castillo before the lockout, tweets Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. That’s hardly a surprise, given that all three Cincinnati arms figure to draw plenty of attention from rival clubs whenever the transactions freeze ends.

12:51 pm: The Blue Jays had Tyler Mahle on their radar as a trade target before the lockout, as TSN’s Scott Mitchell hears from a source that the Jays “were very interested” in the Reds right-hander. The exact timing of the Jays’ interest isn’t specified, or whether or not the club may have moved on from big-ticket pitching acquisitions after signing Kevin Gausman.

Cincinnati GM Nick Krall began the offseason with a quick trade of catcher Tucker Barnhart to the Tigers, and followed that deal up with his now somewhat infamous statement that the Reds “must align our payroll to our resources and continue focusing on scouting and developing young talent from within our system.” Wade Miley (who had a $10MM club option for 2022) was then placed on waivers and claimed by the Cubs, thus sparking even more speculation about just how much payroll the Reds were looking to shed.

As such, players like Mahle, Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, and many other veteran Reds players were immediately seen as trade candidates, even though Cincinnati didn’t make any other overt cost-cutting transactions before the lockout hit. As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco speculated last month, it could be that between the Barnhart/Miley moves and Nick Castellanos’ likely free agent departure, the Reds might have already gotten their finances in order. On top of that, the Reds were reportedly open to discussing Gray in trade talks but not either Mahle or Castillo.

This isn’t to say that the Reds wouldn’t at least listen if Toronto or another team came calling with a big offer, and if the Reds still had designs on contending in 2022, the Blue Jays could offer some combination of both young talent and big league-ready pieces. Cincinnati would likely only accept such a significant trade package for Mahle given that he is both controlled through the 2023 season and coming off the strongest of his five years in the majors.

The 27-year-old righty has been both durable (227 2/3 innings) and effective since the start of the 2020 season, posting a 3.72 ERA and a 28.3% strikeout rate, though Mahle’s 8.9% walk rate was below the league average. Mahle did have strong fastball spin rates in both seasons, and 2021 saw Mahle post far and away the best hard-hit ball rate of his career.

Mahle seems overqualified for a fourth or fifth starter role, yet that might be where he lines up in a Toronto rotation that also consists of Gausman, Jose Berrios, Hyun Jin Ryu, and Alek Manoah. Ross Stripling is penciled in as the fifth starter for the moment, though as Mitchell notes, Stripling “profiles better as a swingman and spot starter” than as a regular rotation member. Top prospect Nate Pearson is likely going to be on an innings limit after two injury-plagued seasons, so while a Pearson/Stripling combo isn’t bad on paper, the Jays might prefer to shift both pitchers into depth roles and cement their rotation by adding some sort of veteran starter, perhaps even one as accomplished as Mahle.

While it remains to be seen if Cincinnati will ultimately deal any of its three starters, the fact that all three may be available to some degree gives the Reds some leverage in talks. In that sense, the Jays aren’t only bidding against other teams interested in Mahle, but also against what other teams (like the Dodgers or Angels) might offer the Reds for Castillo and/or Gray. Given how aggressive Toronto GM Ross Atkins has been in searching out pitching options over the last few years, it is probably safe to assume that the Jays have also checked in on obtaining Castillo or Gray, though only the Blue Jays front office knows which Cincinnati starter is their chief target.

Phillies Notes: Stott, Mattingly, Player Development, Bench

By Mark Polishuk | February 17, 2022 at 10:34am CDT

Bryson Stott is expected to make his MLB debut in 2022, with the Phillies hoping that the top prospect can provide some immediate help to a lineup that both has plenty of holes, and is in need of a youth infusion. Stott has spent most of his two pro seasons at shortstop, but “if I have to move over [to another position], it is what it is,” Stott told NBC Sports’ Jim Salisbury and other reporters. “I just want to do anything I can do to get to Philadelphia and help that city and that team win. So whatever it may be, if it’s short or anywhere else, it’s obviously not up to me.”

Stott has also seen action at second and third base during his time in the minors, giving the Phillies some flexibility in determining both his eventual everyday role and what they might pursue roster-wise once the lockout is over. Second baseman Jean Segura is entering the last year of his contract and third baseman Alec Bohm is looking to bounce back from a rough 2021, and might not stick at third base over the long term anyway. It is also possible Stott might simply remain at shortstop, given how president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said back in October that incumbent Didi Gregorius wasn’t a guaranteed to even return in 2022, let alone remain the starting shortstop. The Phillies will benefit from some extra time to monitor Stott during ongoing minor league minicamps and minor league spring camp next month, as Stott isn’t locked out since he isn’t yet on Philadelphia’s 40-man roster.

More from the City of Brotherly Love….

A breakout performance from Stott would be a nice win for a Phillies organization has had well-documented issues in drafting and developing players who eventually contribute at the big league level. Newly-hired player development director Preston Mattingly has a lot of work ahead in turning things around, though Mattingly told MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki and other reporters that “our system’s a lot deeper than people give it credit….I’ve had the pleasure of seeing a bunch of other teams’ top guys, and I think the guys in our system stack up with those guys. They don’t get the recognition that others do.” In the first months of his tenure, Mattingly has prioritized improving communication within the organization and throughout the different levels of the minor leagues, focusing on making sure that “everybody has the same message when it goes from staff to players…getting everybody with a consistent message going in the same direction” and also that the players themselves are well-informed about the team’s plans. As Mattingly put it, “it’s all a team effort, right? The players, the staff — it’s a two-way street. We got to work together; it’s their career, we’re trying to help them in any way possible.”
Bench depth and pinch-hitting are both areas of need for the Phillies to address after the lockout, as The Athletic’s Matt Gelb notes that the team got very little pop from their pinch-hitters in 2021. The likely introduction of the universal DH will create the need for more position-player help, as Gelb indicates that the Phillies are going to rotate their everyday starters through the DH position rather than have a regular designated hitter.

Quick Hits: Free Agents, Goodrum, Zombro

By Mark Polishuk | February 17, 2022 at 8:53am CDT

We have continued to see minor league signings even with the lockout still limiting most offseason business, though The Athletic’s Eno Sarris and Brittany Ghiroli note that the total number of minors contracts signed this winter is naturally much lower than usual compared to past offseasons. While the lockout extends to MLBPA members, players on MLB contracts, and players on 40-man rosters, some players within these parameters are stuck in a strange middle ground, like Sam McWilliams. Since the righty signed a Major League contract with the Mets last winter but hasn’t actually appeared in a big league game in his pro career, he is both locked out and not an official union member.

It isn’t known exactly how many players are in McWilliams’ status, which is part of the confusion shared over which players are exactly “covered” by the lockout regulations. As a result, some offseason throwing showcases have had to stagger workout times (since MLB scouts aren’t permitted to even observe locked-out players) or even prevent some “covered” players from attending these showcases. McWilliams and others might therefore have even more of an uphill battle in landing a contract during what is expected to be an absolute frenzy of transactions once the lockout is finally over. [UPDATE: Ghiroli tweets that the MLBPA has adjusted its qualification standard for stipends to include McWilliams and other players in his situation]

Rays Reportedly Open To Trading Austin Meadows

By Mark Polishuk | February 12, 2022 at 9:57pm CDT

Kevin Kiermaier may be among the most obvious possible trade chips in the sport, though he isn’t the only Rays outfielder that may be available. According to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, Kiermaier and Austin Meadows are the “most likely to go in a trade” and Manuel Margot could “maybe” also be floated to other teams.

Since the Rays roster is in constant flux, it isn’t surprising that the club is at least open to discussing anyone short of Wander Franco. We examined Margot as a potential trade candidate last week, citing his appeal to other teams as a similar glove-first type of player to Kiermaier, except younger, less expensive, and with a less-checkered injury history. Meadows bring a different skillset to the table, plus more long-term control since he is controlled through the 2024 season via salary arbitration.

Meadows hit .234/.315/.458 with 27 home runs over 591 plate appearances in 2021, bouncing back from a rough 2020 season that saw him post only a .667 OPS over 152 PA. That 2020 campaign was hampered by both a case of COVID-19 during Summer Camp and then an oblique strain in late September, though Meadows was able to return for much of the Rays’ postseason run.

Despite the rebound year, however, Meadows’ 2021 numbers weren’t without some concerns. Quite a bit of his production was contained within a red-hot stretch from May 2 to June 6 that saw Meadows hit .275/.365/.625 with 10 home runs. In the 345 PA after that hot streak, however, Meadows was only a .224/.290/.406 hitter. The left-handed hitting Meadows had posted pretty good numbers against lefties over his career, but his 2021 splits saw him deliver just a .563 OPS in 189 PA against southpaws (as opposed to an .871 OPS in 351 PA against right-handed pitching).

Defensive shifts played a big part in these splits, as teams shifted 75% of the time against Meadows in 2021, a marked increase from the previous two seasons. The result was a .304 wOBA against the shift (with a .402 wOBA in normal defensive alignments). Meadows also made much less hard contact in 2021 than he did in the previous two seasons, with a 37.9% hard-hit ball rate that put him in only the 32nd percentile of all batters.

Meadows has been mostly utilized as a left fielder over the last two seasons, with mixed results depending on your metric of choice. Defensive Runs Saved (+2) and UZR/150 (+4.2) give him positive grades, while Outs Above Average puts Meadows at only a -1 for his 799 2/3 innings in left field. While not bad defensive numbers by any stretch, the Rays still gave Meadows a lot of DH time before Nelson Cruz was acquired prior to the trade deadline.

Dealing Meadows would be a very intriguing move for a Tampa Bay club that is no stranger to aggressive trades, even of players who seemed like building blocks in the recent past. It can be argued that Meadows still is or should be a building block, considering the power he brings to the table, his former top-prospect status with the Pirates, and his three years of team control.

The increasing price tag of those arbitration years, however, might also factor against Meadows’ longer-term future in Tampa. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects Meadows to earn $4.3MM in his first arb-eligible year, and barring any changes to the arbitration structure in the next CBA, traditional counting stats like home runs and RBIs may continue to play an outsized role in determining a player’s future salary. If the Rays feel they can get a more productive overall player into the mix now, they could opt to deal Meadows while he may still be able to command something close to a premium return.

With some more established veteran outfield bats available in free agency, Meadows stands an interesting alternative for teams that might not be willing to pay big money to sign a Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, or Michael Conforto. Meadows’ three years of control would put a different type of high price tag on his services, though an enterprising team could tempt the Rays with any number of offers. Whatever the move, Topkin figures a larger-profile trade is likelier to come closer to the start of Spring Training if the Rays can help it, since the team would like to avoid “the disruption” involved with trading an established member of the roster later in camp.

Outfield prospect Josh Lowe is ready for a larger role in 2022, able to step into the Rays’ outfield mix in the event that any of Meadows, Kiermaier, or Margot is traded. Replacing a left fielder is easier than replacing a premium defensive glove like Kiermaier or Margot, so Tampa Bay could also look elsewhere if it isn’t satisfied with an outfield mix of Randy Arozarena, Brett Phillips, Kiermaier, Margot, and Vidal Brujan. Topkin also reiterates that the Rays are hoping to find a right-handed hitter who can play first base, and if such player is also outfield-capable, that would only help the depth chart.

Minor MLB Transactions: 2/12/22

By Mark Polishuk | February 12, 2022 at 8:41pm CDT

Today’s minor league moves from around the baseball world…

The Rockies signed right-hander Zach Lee to a minor league deal, as per the team’s official transactions page. The 28th overall pick of the 2010 draft, Lee was a regular on top-100 prospect lists during his time in the Dodgers farm system, but Los Angeles fans may remember Lee best as the player dealt to the Mariners for Chris Taylor in June 2016. Lee has pitched only 12 2/3 innings at the big league level and hasn’t appeared in an MLB game since 2017, bouncing around to several different organizations on minor league contracts. Still only 30 years old, Lee will now head to the Rockies’ camp to try and earn another trip back to the Show.

MLBTR Chat Transcript

By Mark Polishuk | February 12, 2022 at 7:50pm CDT

Click here to read the transcript of tonight’s live baseball chat

Trevor Story Reportedly Not Interested In Position Change

By Mark Polishuk | February 9, 2022 at 10:58pm CDT

With Trevor Story still on the open market, there has been plenty of speculation about where (and how much, contract-wise) the All-Star will eventually land when the lockout is over. One of the larger factors in this discussion is whether or not a move to another position could be in the cards, should a team with an incumbent shortstop come calling about using Story as a second baseman, third baseman or perhaps even in the outfield.

From Story’s own perspective, however, he is focused on remaining at shortstop. According to Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post, “from everything I’ve been told, Story doesn’t want to switch positions,” though Saunders does add the caveat that it’s possible “that could change” depending on Story’s next destination.

Given that Story has played only shortstop (and a handful of DH games) over his six big league seasons, it obviously isn’t surprising that he would prefer to remain at the position, and would want to exhaust all possibilities in remaining a shortstop before considering a move elsewhere on the diamond. As Story and his representatives at Excel Sports Management would undoubtedly point out, a position change isn’t even necessary since Story is still a top-tier defensive shortstop, with +9 Defensive Runs Saved and +3.1 UZR/150 in 2021.

While DRS and UZR/150 have generally been favorable towards Story, however, the Outs Above Average metric tells another tale. As per OAA, Story was a league-average shortstop in 2020 (0.0) and then quite subpar in 2021 (-7). Since many teams have their own in-house methods of defensive evaluation, there could be quite a bit of variance from a club to club basis on whether or not Story is still a good fit at shortstop. Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reported in December that some scouts feel Story is ultimately a better second option than a shortstop over the long term, due to concerns over his throwing arm.

Divish’s report came within the context of the Mariners’ known interest in Story, and given Seattle’s expressed desire to keep J.P. Crawford at shortstop, the M’s would be one of the teams eyeing Story at other positions. The Mariners did address their second base need by acquiring Adam Frazier prior to the lockout, but theoretically, Frazier could be moved to the outfield or into a super-utility role if the M’s did add Story or another second base-capable starter.

If Story insists on remaining at shortstop, his list of potential new teams will shrink to some extent, though there are still quite a few teams (i.e. the Astros, Twins, Angels, Phillies, Yankees, Nationals, Cubs) who have clear needs at shortstop or have been linked to this offseason’s busy shortstop market in one regard or another. It’s also possible that another team might make a position switch of their own to accommodate Story — for instance, the Red Sox were known to have some interest in Story’s services, and Story is a much better defensive shortstop than Xander Bogaerts. Since Bogaerts can opt out of his contract following the 2022 season, Boston might want to get an early jump on preparing for a post-Bogaerts roster.

As much as Story would naturally want to stay at shortstop, it can’t be ruled out that the market will ultimately make that decision for him. Story’s market is complicated by several factors — the draft pick compensation attached to him via his rejection of the Rockies’ qualifying offer, Carlos Correa’s presence as another major available shortstop, possible changes to baseball’s business model in the new CBA, the overall uncertainty of the lockout, and how wild the transactions frenzy will be when teams are finally allowed to make moves again. If the richest multi-year offers (MLBTR projected Story for six years and $126MM) are only coming from teams that want Story at another position, he might accept the move off shortstop if it’s his only path to a big payday.

On the flip side, Story might opt for something of a hedge in the form of a short-term position change. If he accepted a one-year deal to join a team as their new second baseman or third baseman, Story could re-enter the market next winter with the hopes of finally scoring that larger contract on the heels of a better platform year. It would be similar to Marcus Semien’s tactic of taking a one-year deal from the Blue Jays last offseason, enjoying a huge 2021 season, and then signing with the Rangers for seven years and $175MM. It should be noted that Semien didn’t actually return to being a shortstop, of course, as he’ll line up at second base again since Texas also signed Corey Seager.

Still, Story might prefer his luck next offseason in a free agent market that isn’t quite as loaded as this year for premium shortstop talent. The 2022-23 class does have such prominent names as Bogaerts (if he opts out), Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson, and theoretically Tim Anderson, though right now it seems very likely that the White Sox will exercise their $12.5MM club option on Anderson for 2023. As mentioned earlier, joining a team like Bogaerts’ Red Sox or even Turner’s Dodgers could be a possibility for Story if those teams feel they won’t be retaining their incumbent shortstops.

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