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Poll: Who Will Be The AL’s Wild Card Teams?

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The Twins hold a 2.5-game lead over the Indians in the AL Central after today’s action, and in addition to fighting for the division crown, both clubs are desperately trying to avoid facing even more competition in the AL wild card hunt.  Cleveland (74-51) is currently in possession of the top wild card spot, with the Rays (73-52) in the second slot, just a game behind.

Despite taking three of four games from the Astros, the Athletics are still 7.5 games behind Houston in the AL West, leaving the wild card as Oakland’s most realistic shot at a postseason berth.  The A’s (71-53) are 1.5 games behind the Rays.

Had this poll been posted even a couple of days ago, the Red Sox would likely have been omitted, yet a five-game winning streak merits them a mention.  Boston (67-59) is still 6.5 games behind Tampa Bay, and don’t have many head-to-head opportunities remaining against their division rivals, as the Sox and Rays only play four more times this season.  The Red Sox do have a three-game set against Minnesota on September 3-5 at Fenway Park.

The Twins have six critical September games lined up against the Tribe, but beyond those two series, Minnesota has a clear advantage over Cleveland in terms of benefiting from their weak division.  Twenty-six of the Twins’ remaining 38 games are against the White Sox, Royals, and Tigers, while the Indians only face the AL Central’s lesser lights 16 times in their final 37 games.

It all adds up to a wild final six weeks of action, particularly since injuries, roster shuffles, and players on both incredible hot streaks and cold streaks continue to change the narrative on a near-daily basis.  In particularly, all three non-AL Central teams face looming questions about their pitching staffs.  Can the A’s get their long-awaited influx of young pitching reinforcements once multiple arms return from the injured list?  Can the Rays get by three-fourths of their regular rotation (Blake Snell, Yonny Chirinos, Tyler Glasnow) still hurt?  Can the Red Sox mount a late-season comeback even as their own inconsistent rotation has suffered perhaps a critical blow?

Which two teams do you think will emerge from the fray to play in the one-game Wild Card playoff in October?  (Poll link for app users)

Which two teams will win the AL wild cards?
Rays/AL Central runner-up 41.01% (5,523 votes)
Athletics/AL Central runner-up 22.81% (3,072 votes)
Rays/Athletics 21.13% (2,845 votes)
Red Sox/AL Central runner-up 6.51% (877 votes)
Rays/Red Sox 5.23% (704 votes)
Athletics/Red Sox 3.30% (445 votes)
Total Votes: 13,466

Prospect Notes: Lux, Adell, Dalbec, Hall

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As Gavin Lux continues to shred Triple-A pitching, it isn’t yet clear if the star prospect will make his Dodgers debut in 2019, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register writes.  Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman simply said “I don’t know” when asked about the possibility of a Lux promotion, as Friedman cited considerations like finding room for Lux on the 40-man roster while juggling the roster status of other players returning from the injured list.  “I think more of our mental energy is being spent on how to configure our pitching staff (for the postseason) more than our position players that are doing pretty well,” Friedman said.

Lux entered today’s action hitting an unfathomable .415/.497/.768 over 191 plate appearances for Triple-A Oklahoma City (not to mention “only” a .313/.375/.521 slash line in 291 PA at Double-A before his latest promotion).  While he has spent much of his pro career at shortstop, Lux has also seen a lot of action at second base, which would be his logical position both in the event of a September call-up and probably for the future, since Corey Seager isn’t leaving L.A. anytime soon.  Then again, the Dodgers’ list of second base candidates is also long — Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernandez are expected to return from the IL on Tuesday, Jedd Gyorko and Kristopher Negron are utility options, and Max Muncy needs an everyday role if the Dodgers continue to deploy Cody Bellinger at first base.  Interestingly, Friedman hinted that Lux could potentially join the Dodgers in a non-roster capacity in September, traveling with the team and learning the ropes of being a big leaguer without actually being on the active roster.

Here’s some more on some of the game’s stars of the future…

  • There’s more clarity on a heralded youngster on Los Angeles’ other team, as the Angels currently aren’t planning to call Jo Adell up for his first taste of MLB action in September, Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times tweets.  Prospect ranking outlets have Adell as a consensus top-four minor leaguer in the sport, though preseason ankle and hamstring injuries kept him from making his 2019 debut until May 24, and he has only a modest .233/.303/.317 slash line over 67 plate appearances in his first stint at Triple-A.  As a result, the Angels look to give Adell more seasoning and some time at winter ball before looking to promote him to the majors.  It has been widely speculated that Adell could be an everyday member of the Halos’ outfield as early as Opening Day 2020, as Kole Calhoun is a free agent this offseason.
  • Could the Red Sox go with a youth movement at first base next season?  Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe wonders if this could be the case, as since Mitch Moreland and Steve Pearce will both be free agents, the Sox could turn to either Michael Chavis or top prospect Bobby Dalbec.  Abraham notes that while Chavis has played a lot of second base this season, the keystone is “probably not a long-term position for him,” and thus Chavis could be used at first base, in the outfield, all over the diamond as a super-utility player, or potentially even as an offseason trade chip to add pitching.  A fourth-rounder for Boston in the 2016 draft, Dalbec (ranked 92nd on Baseball America’s list of the game’s top 100 prospects) has steadily climbed through the farm system and is now hitting well over his first two weeks at Triple-A.  Dalbec was originally drafted as a third baseman, but has increasingly seen more time at first base thanks to Rafael Devers establishing himself at the hot corner for the Sox.  While Devers and Xander Bogaerts have the left side of Boston’s infield locked down for the foreseeable future, the right side is much more in flux, between Moreland and Pearce possibly leaving and the continued uncertainty about whether Dustin Pedroia will ever be able to play again.  The Red Sox are likely to explore the market for first base and second base options this offseason, and Chavis will certainly be in the conversation at either position, Dalbec could also be an important piece of the team’s puzzle for 2020.
  • Orioles left-handed pitching prospect D.L. Hall has been shut down for the season following a left lat strain, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko reports (Twitter link).  While the injury isn’t considered serious, Hall won’t have enough time to get back before the Orioles’ A-ball affiliate in Frederick completes its season.  The 21st overall pick of the 2017 draft, Hall has a 3.46 ERA and 12.9 K/9 over 80 2/3 innings for Frederick this season, though with a troubling 6.0 BB/9.  ESPN’s Keith Law ranked Hall 35th in his midseason top-50 prospects list and Baseball America has Hall 38th in their top 100 list, while MLB.com (62) and Fangraphs (63) are just a touch less bullish on his promise.

Injury Notes: Cueto, Stanton, Hill, Morrow

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Johnny Cueto’s rehab outing with Single-A San Jose is set for tonight, manager Bruce Bochy told reporters (including NBC Sports Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic and Kerry Crowley of the Bay Area News Group), with the veteran righty slated to make 45 pitches.  Cueto is expected to make one more start beyond tonight for San Jose, though the original plan of two further rehab outings at Triple-A would be altered, as Cueto might simply get called back to the majors if he is healthy and throwing well.  By having “Cueto get up to speed in big league games,” as Pavlovic puts it, the Giants would get some needed rotation help, even if Cueto is limited to only four or five innings per start.  All will depend on how Cueto is feeling as he reaches the final stages of his Tommy John rehab, of course, though getting Cueto back in anything close to his old form would certainly help a San Francisco club that is struggling to stay in wild card contention.

Here’s more on some other injury situations from around baseball….

  • Yankees manager Aaron Boone and GM Brian Cashman both believe Giancarlo Stanton will be ready to return sometime in September, and the slugger himself told reporters (including MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch) that he hopes to get “a few weeks of at-bats before October.”  Those at-bats could come in the form of simulated games or minor league games, however, as Stanton has yet to be cleared for on-field activity.  A variety of injuries have limited Stanton to just nine games, making it a “brutal” season that has only been salvaged by the Yankees’ success.  “That’s what’s kept it not so bad for me, is to watch everyone bring together wins all different ways….That’s what I’ve been focusing on, not ’poor me’ or all that stuff,” Stanton said.
  • Rich Hill and Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman haven’t closed the door on the possibility of Hill starting for the team in the postseason, Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times writes, assuming Hill’s rehab from a flexor tendon strain proceeds as expected.  Hill played a 50-toss game of catch from 120 feet today, and the next steps in his rehab include throwing off a mound next week and then tossing four bullpen sessions.  From there, Hill “will make what amounts to rehab appearances in the majors. He would start with an inning or two, and increase the workload with each outing, one inning at a time, like in spring training.”  This plan could get Hill ready to go for October, though if length is still an issue, the Dodgers could also use one of several other arms in combination with Hill in a piggyback situation.
  • Brandon Morrow threw a live batting practice session in Arizona yesterday, Cubs GM Jed Hoyer told 670 The Score radio (hat tip to Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune).  It remains to be seen if Morrow will pitch at all in 2019, though he projected a possible return in early September in his most recent update, as he had been facing hitters and wasn’t feeling any soreness in his forearm or elbow.

Rangers, Mike Minor Have Mutual Interest In Extension

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Both the Rangers and left-hander Mike Minor are interested in continuing their relationship beyond the end of the 2020 season, when Minor’s current contract expires.  Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports that that “preliminary extension talks” have already taken place between the team and Minor’s representatives, though more substantive negotiations are likely to wait until the offseason.

Minor’s future in Arlington was of great speculation in the weeks and months leading up to the trade deadline, as the veteran southpaw drew plenty of interest from teams in need of rotation help.  The Yankees, Twins, and Phillies were just a few of the teams known to be linked to Minor’s trade market, and all of the buzz not only seemed to irritate Minor, but also seemed to impact his performance.  Minor posted a 6.59 ERA over five starts in July, as opposed to a 2.40 ERA over 112 2/3 IP from March through June, and a perfect 0.00 ERA in 15 August frames.

It still isn’t out of the question that Texas eventually trades Minor this winter, perhaps depending on the tenor of the extension talks.  But since GM Jon Daniels already made the call to keep Minor since the Rangers were still on the outskirts of the wild card race, there’s also a solid argument to be made for keeping him in the fold both in 2020 and beyond.

Minor has been tremendous since signing his three-year, $28MM deal in the 2017-18 offseason, following up a strong performance in 2018 with an All-Star showing in 2019.  He has a 2.90 ERA, 9.2 K/9, and 3.12 K/BB rate over 155 total frames, with a 175 ERA+ that leads all of baseball.  While ERA predictors (3.97 FIP, 4.38 xFIP, 4.30 SIERA) aren’t a fan and he is getting a lot of strand rate help (85.7%), Minor’s .291 wOBA is a near-perfect match of his .290 xwOBA.  Looking at the Statcast numbers, Minor is in the top one percent of all pitchers in terms of fastball spin, which thus also explains why batters have been unable to square up much against him — Minor is in the 90th percentile in both exit velocity and hard-hit ball rate.

The big question going forward, of course, is whether Minor can continue to sustain this performance.  Minor turns 32 in December, so an extension would begin with his age-33 season, and teams have been increasingly wary about signing any player (pitcher or hitter) into their 30’s.  Nonetheless, the Rangers would surely appreciate gaining some extra stability beyond just Lance Lynn amidst an overall unstable rotation mix, while Minor would likely prefer an extension rather than risk a potential downturn in 2020 and an uncertain trip back into the free agent market.

Angels Outright J.C. Ramirez To Triple-A

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The Angels have outrighted right-hander J.C. Ramirez off their 40-man roster and down to Triple-A, the team announced.  As Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group notes, Ramirez has the option of rejecting the outright assignment in order to instead become a free agent.  Left-hander Adalberto Mejia has also been activated off the team’s restricted list.

After undergoing Tommy John surgery in April 2018, Ramirez made his return to the Major League mound on July 31, and the righty has a 4.50 ERA over eight innings of relief work.  Of particular note was Ramirez’s 91mph average fastball velocity, a notable step down from his 95.5mph average over the course of his career, though it isn’t unusual for pitchers to gradually build up velocity after any long absence (especially in the aftermath of a major arm procedure).

The 30-year-old has already logged 41 1/3 minor league innings this season as part of his rehab work, and he’ll now head back to Triple-A unless he chooses to become a free agent.  He could decide to simply remain in a familiar organization while he gets back to full health, unless Ramirez feels he’s ready for MLB action and opts to seek out a chance on another club’s 25-man roster.  As evidenced by the outright, Ramirez is out of options, meaning that a new team would either have to keep him on their active roster or else expose him to waivers again in order to outright him to the minor leagues.

Diamondbacks Place Robbie Ray On 10-Day Injured List

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5:58PM: Ray’s MRI didn’t indicate any serious damage, the southpaw told MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert (Twitter link).

3:14PM: The Diamondbacks have placed left-hander Robbie Ray on the 10-day injured list due to a lower back spasm, the team announced.  Right-handers Jon Duplantier and Stefan Crichton have been called up from Triple-A to take the roster spots of Ray and Tim Locastro, who was optioned to Triple-A yesterday.

Back spasms forced Ray out of last night’s start after just two innings, and the southpaw was scheduled to undergo an MRI today.  Obviously the D’Backs were concerned enough to send Ray to the IL, though Ray could end up missing a minimal amount of time, depending on the severity of the spasms.  Needless to say, Arizona would love to have Ray healthy and contributing again as soon as possible, given how the D’Backs are fighting to stay in the postseason race (3.5 games out of an NL wild card position entering today’s play).

Since Zack Greinke was dealt to the Astros at the trade deadline, Ray has become the de facto ace of Arizona’s rotation, with his 3.99 ERA, 2.97 K/BB rate, and 11.9 K/9 over 142 innings this season.  ERA predictors (4.09 FIP, 3.71 xFIP, 3.97 SIERA) and a .311 xwOBA that almost exactly matches his .314 wOBA back up those solid-if-unspectacular numbers.  Ray himself received a lot of trade attention at the deadline, and it’s possible the D’Backs could again look at moving him this offseason, as 2020 is his final year of team control before free agency.

With Ray out, the Diamondbacks have Merrill Kelly, Mike Leake, Alex Young, and Zac Gallen remaining in the rotation.  Duplantier made three starts earlier this season and is the likeliest candidate to fill in while Ray is out, plus Taylor Clarke is at Triple-A and the club could also explore using an opener.  Luke Weaver and Taijuan Walker are expected back from the IL at some point, though it isn’t certain if they’ll make it back to the active roster (or be used as starters) before Ray is able to return.

Giants Select Fernando Abad’s Contract, Designate Kyle Barraclough

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The Giants announced a series of roster moves, including the news that catcher Aramis Garcia and left-hander Williams Jerez were optioned to Triple-A Sacramento and right-hander Kyle Barraclough has been designated for assignment.  Right-hander Dereck Rodriguez was called up and left-hander Fernando Abad’s contract was purchased from Triple-A.

After signing a minors contract with the Giants in February, Abad is lined up to receive his first MLB action since 2017.  His 2018 season was marred by a lengthy appeal of a positive PED test that eventually led to an 80-game suspension.  Abad had agreed to a minor league deal with the Mets prior to the season but the suspension caused New York to pull out of the agreement before it became official.  Pitching for Sacramento this season, Abad has been very impressive, posting a 3.07 ERA and 49 strikeouts against only four walks over 44 relief innings.

Rodriguez will get another chance at salvaging what has been a rough sophomore season for the 27-year-old, who has a 5.32 ERA, 5.9 K/9, and 1.68 K/BB rate over 64 1/3 frames this season.  It’s a far cry from Rodriguez’s 2.81 ERA in his 2018 rookie season, as the righty has been up and down from the minors on multiple occasions this season as he has tried to regain last year’s consistency.  He’ll be put to work immediately, as Rodriguez is scheduled to start tonight’s game against the Diamondbacks.

Barraclough was claimed off waivers from the Nationals just last week, and now could potentially be on the move again in what has been a trying season.  Barraclough allowed eight homers in just 25 2/3 innings for the Nats, leading to an ugly 2.5 HR/9 and 6.66 ERA.  After posting a measly 0.4 HR/9 in his first three seasons for the Marlins, Barraclough’s number jumped up to 1.4 HR/9 in 2018, which was perhaps one of the reasons Miami was willing to deal in a trade with Washington last October.  Beyond the increasingly worrisome long-ball issues, Barraclough also spent roughly four weeks on the injured list this year due to nerve irritation in his forearm.

NL East Notes: Zimmerman, Phillies, Lowrie, Marlins

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Ryan Zimmerman is in the final guaranteed year of his contract, and the longtime Nationals staple tells MLB.com’s Bill Ladson that he has yet to speak to GM Mike Rizzo or team ownership about what he hopes will be a continued relationship in 2020 and beyond.  The Nats hold an $18MM club option ($2MM buyout) on Zimmerman for next season that is highly unlikely to be exercised, given the veteran’s injuries and declining production in recent years.  Zimmerman is very eager to finish his career with the only franchise he has ever known, and reiterated that he is open to playing the rest of his career by ear, even returning just in a platoon situation at first base.

“I’m willing to come back [to Washington] and do one year, year by year, for a lot less money,” Zimmerman said.  “I don’t think the money matters to me anymore.  I just want to continue to play baseball and keep playing baseball in D.C.  I’m lucky that my kids are here.  My family is here.”  If the Nats didn’t want to keep Zimmerman on the roster, he stopped short of saying he’d retire, though “it would be a tough decision to leave my family and not be around” while playing in another city.

Here’s more from around the NL East…

  • The Phillies’ surprise hire of former manager Charlie Manuel as the team’s new hitting coach is explored by Matt Gelb of The Athletic (subscription required), who wonders if it could be a harbinger of future moves if the Phils continue to underachieve.  Owner John Middleton, as per Gelb, “has solicited opinions in recent weeks from inside and outside the organization to gain a clearer picture of his franchise’s warts,” and Middleton also “became a decisive voice in” Manuel’s hiring.  It stands to reason that further coaching changes could be made, or manager Gabe Kapler could be on the hot seat, as he is only under contract through the 2020 season.
  • Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen gave reporters (including the New York Post’s Mike Puma) an update on Jed Lowrie on Wednesday, saying that Lowrie has been participating in simulated games, including running, fielding, and hitting drills.  Due to a string of knee, hamstring, and calf injuries, Lowrie hasn’t played at all this season, and despite his recent progress, it still isn’t clear if he’ll be able to make it onto the field.  Van Wagenen is still hopeful Lowrie can play in 2019, though he also didn’t reveal any plans for a minor league rehab assignment.  Since Lowrie would obviously need a good deal of time to ramp up, there isn’t a lot of opportunity left for an overly-lengthy rehab assignment, given that the minor league season comes to a close in early September.
  • Marlins CEO Derek Jeter was non-committal about the idea of moving in the fences at Marlins Park for 2020, telling MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro and other reporters that the organization would “maybe” consider such an idea.  As Frisaro notes, Marlins Park has allowed the second-fewest home runs of any stadium in baseball since the start of the 2012 season (when the Miami ballpark opened), and while the Marlins’ oft-disappointing lineups have undoubtedly played a role in this power outage, players on all teams have been constantly bedeviled by the ballpark’s big dimensions.

Reds Select Joel Kuhnel’s Contract

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The Reds have selected the contract of right-hander Joel Kuhnel from Triple-A Louisville, and also called up righty Matt Bowman from their top affiliate, the club announced (Twitter link).  Kuhnel and Bowman will take the roster spots of righty Sal Romano, who was optioned to Louisville, and Jared Hughes, who was claimed off waivers by the Phillies.

This will be the 24-year-old Kuhnel’s first taste of the big leagues, coming a little over three years after being the Reds’ 11th-round pick in the 2016 draft.  Kuhnel pitched in both Double-A and Triple-A for the first time in 2019, quickly moving up the ladder thanks to a combined 2.18 ERA, 8.4 K/9, and 3.13 K/BB rate over 53 2/3 relief innings.  MLB.com ranks Kuhnel as the 24th-best prospect in Cincinnati’s farm system, noting that “his fastball touches triple-digits with ease and he mixes in an 89-93 mph slider and a low-90s changeup.”

Phillies Claim Jared Hughes

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The Phillies announced that righty Jared Hughes has been claimed off waivers from the Reds.  To make room on the 40-man roster, the Phils placed right-hander Edubray Ramos on the 60-day injured list.

In claiming Hughes, Philadelphia absorbs the roughly $531K still owed to the right-hander for the remainder of the season.  Hughes is in the last guaranteed season of a two-year, $4.5MM contract, though the Phillies have a club option on his services (for $3MM with a $250K buyout) for the 2020 season.  For the present, Hughes is a relatively low-cost pickup for a Phillies team that has sorely needed some help for its injury-riddled bullpen, though Hughes hasn’t been in the best of form in recent weeks.

After an outstanding debut year in Cincinnati that saw him post a 1.94 ERA over 78 2/3 innings, Hughes came back to earth in 2019, posting a 4.10 ERA, 6.3 K/9, and 1.79 K/BB rate over 48 1/3 frames.  The extreme ground-ball pitcher has continued to keep the ball out of the air, as evidenced by a 60.7% grounder rate, but he has suffered when batters have gotten some arc — Hughes has a 20% homer/fly ball rate, far above his 12.3% career average.

Despite the extra homers, however, Hughes only really started to run into some struggles recently.  He had a 2.88 ERA as late as July 24 before enduring a nightmarish inning against the Rockies on July 26 that saw him allow six runs.  That began a stretch of six outings that saw Hughes post a 10.57 ERA over 7 2/3 innings of work, with as many walks (five) as strikeouts, and not a single home run allowed to account for that damage.  Hughes also served a three-game suspension for his role in the already-infamous brawl between the Reds and Pirates on July 30.

The Reds have been one of the league’s more active teams since the trade deadline, particularly on the pitching front.  Cincinnati claimed Kevin Gausman off waivers from the Braves, signed veterans Brad Boxberger, Junichi Tazawa and Tim Collins to minor league contracts, and parted ways with Hughes and David Hernandez.  Since it seemed Hughes was no longer in the club’s plans for 2020, the Reds save a bit of cash by letting him go to the Phillies now rather than paying a buyout at season’s end.

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