Extension Candidate: Desmond Jennings
At the moment, the AL Rookie of the Year race seems to be wide open. Right-handers Michael Pineda, Ivan Nova, Jordan Walden and Jeremy Hellickson all deserve consideration, as do AL West hitters Mark Trumbo and Dustin Ackley. There was a late addition to the Rookie of the Year race though, and that's Rays outfielder Desmond Jennings.
Tampa did not call up the 24-year-old Jennings until late-July, but since arriving he's been one of the very best hitters in baseball. Not just among rookies either, among all players. His batting line sits at .324/.419/.581 in 175 plate appearances, and since coming up he ranks ninth in MLB in OBP, 18th in SLG, 24th in homers (eight), and first in stolen bases (14). FanGraphs places Jennings' value at 2.2 wins above replacement already, which is fourth most among all rookie position players even though he's come to the plate at least 101 fewer times than the three players ahead of him (Danny Espinosa, Ackley, and Wilson Ramos).
Jennings did receive a September call-up last year and it's not hard to connect the dots and suggest that his promotion in 2011 was delayed due to service time. He will finish the season with less than one full year of service time, which isn't exactly when teams start handing out extensions. The Rays have set a bit of a precedent though, famously inking Evan Longoria to a six-year, $17.5MM contract after just six days in the big leagues. James Shields was barely over one year of service time when he signed his four-year, $11.25MM contract. Tampa has shown a willingness to take on risk in exchange for cost control of their best young players, making Jennings a prime extension candidate.
The recent Jose Tabata extension gives us a great idea of the market value for a young outfielder with approximately a year of service time. The Pirates gave their 23-year-old outfielder six years and $15MM guaranteed, though three club options could push the total value of the package to $37.25MM. The Rays love getting those club option years as well; both Longoria's and Shields' contracts contain three option years each while Ben Zobrist's deal includes two. Tabata is just about two years younger than Jennings and his big league sample is much larger (815 PA vs. 199 PA), but he hasn't hit as much as the Tampa outfielder (.286/.349/.385 career) and UZR doesn't like his defense as much either. There's not much of a point in comparing the two players statistically given how long they've been in the show, but remember that teams are paying for what they expect in future, not what they've gotten in the past.
One legitimate reason not to give Jennings a long-term contract is his durability, or lack thereof. He missed the final month of the 2007 season due to knee surgery, played in just 24 games in 2008 due to back and shoulder troubles (surgery on the shoulder), and then battled a wrist issue in 2010. The Rays can't afford to miss on a long-term contract extension, so they'll need to feel confident in his ability to stay on the field before deciding to take the plunge. Baseball America thinks enough of Jennings' talent that they ranked him as the 22nd best prospect in baseball before the season despite those injury concerns, the fourth consecutive year he's earned a spot on their top 100 prospects list. It's also worth noting that Jennings is a Scott Boras client.
It seems likely that Tampa will part ways B.J. Upton at some point within the next year, at which point Jennings will just slide over to center field. They're guaranteed to have him at a salary close to the league minimum for at least another two seasons thanks to the pre-arbitration rules, but it's not out of the question that the Rays may decide to lock Jennings in at a below-market rate before that transition occurs.
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.
Quick Hits: Anthopoulos, Lee, Sabathia
On the one-year anniversary of Stephen Strasburg's Tommy John surgery, let's look at some links from around the league. Strasburg, by the way, will be making his first start back from the injury this coming Tuesday.
- Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos spoke to MLB.com's Gregor Chisholm about his recent trip to Japan. Anthopoulos acknowledged that he went to see Yu Darvish, but he called it "due diligence" and noted that there are also free agents (like Hisashi Iwakuma) worth looking at. The link offers plenty of quotes, so make sure you click through.
- Pirates manager Clint Hurdle told Rob Biertempfel of The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review that he's lobbying for the team to re-sign Derrek Lee after the season, but neither Lee nor GM Neal Huntington would indicate that it's a possibility. "I'm not going to close any doors," said the first baseman, "but it's something I haven't even thought about."
- In a piece for ESPN Insider, Dan Szymborski looked at what the next few years could have in store for Yankees ace CC Sabathia, and also explained how pitchers of similar size performed into their 30s. Sabathia can opt out of his contract after the season, and Szymborski concludes that "losing him is more expensive than keeping him, and there is little evidence that his size will be a problem going forward."
Brandon Phillips Discusses Contract Situation
Reds' second baseman Brandon Phillips has made it no secret that he would like a contract extension, but talks were not progressing as of June. He spoke to MLB.com's Mark Sheldon today about how negotiations are going and his feelings about the situation.
"I've always said from Day One that this is where I want to be at," said Phillips. "I thought there might be some talks going on during the season but I haven't heard anything all year. I was very disappointed about it … I can't really trip about anything that much. I came here and got my career back to where it should be going."
GM Walt Jocketty, meanwhile, does not believe the lack of talks are unusual, acknowledging that he has not spoken to Phillips' agent but believes he would "at some point between now and the next month or so." The Reds hold a 2012 club option that would pay the 30-year-old infielder $12MM, but Phillips said he will test the free agent waters if the team simply picks up the option without a contract extension.
"If they just pick my option up and don't extend me, I feel like that's a slap in my face," he said. "If the team wants you, they will make room. They will show you they want you here, period. They did it for some of the other guys … If they're going to have me for just one year, I feel like they don't see me in the future."
Cincinnati gave contract extensions to Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto, and Bronson Arroyo this past offseason, though Votto's did not buy out any free agent years. Phillips is hitting .295/.345/.433 with a dozen homers this season, and he would be the cream of the middle infield free agent crop after next year.
Minor Moves: Clayton Tanner, Omar Quintanilla
Let's keep track of the day's minor moves right here…
- The Reds have signed Clayton Tanner and assigned him to their Triple-A affiliate according to the International League transactions page. The 23-year-old left-hander was released by the Giants earlier this week after posting a 4.29 ERA in 119 2/3 innings in Double-A.
- Omar Quintanilla elected free agency rather than accept a minor league assignment with the Rangers, reports Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News (on Twitter). Texas outrighted the infielder yesterday after he hit .298/.369/.452 line in 234 plate appearances with their Triple-A squad.
- Matt Eddy of Baseball America has every minor league transaction that took place between August 25th and 30th.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Mariners, Dunn, Giants
On this date in 2006, September call-up Kevin Kouzmanoff hit his first career home run for the Indians. It wasn't just his first career homer either, it was a grand slam that came on the first pitch he saw in his first big league plate appearance. Edinson Volquez, then of the Rangers, was the victim. Kouzmanoff joined Jeremy Hermida and Bill Duggelby as the only players in history to hit a grand slam in their first career at-bat. Daniel Nava has since joined the club.
These links won't have that kind of immediate impact, but they're definitely worth your time…
- 1 Blue Jays Way interviewed Blue Jays prospect Deck McGuire.
- Phoul Ballz spoke to Phillies prospect Jesse Biddle.
- U.S.S. Mariner mused about Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik and his new contract extension.
- Brotherly Glove broke down the Phillies 40-man roster.
- MLB Reports looked at the future of Adam Dunn.
- Giants Nirvana provided some thoughts about the recent moves the Giants made.
- Yankees Fans Unite says the Yankees improved their pitching by adding Russell Martin.
- Cream City Cables wrote about the experience and maturity of the Brewers.
- Twins Fan From Afar remembers the good old days of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau.
- Puckett's Pond looked at some recently departed Twins (part one, part two).
- Bleacher GM put together offseason previews for the Yankees and Red Sox.
- BK Sporting News wonders if Justin Verlander is the AL MVP.
- Meanwhile, MLB Dirt wonders why a pitcher can't win the MVP award.
If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here. Only one email per week, please.
Mets Links: Einhorn, Payroll, Herrera, Capuano
Earlier today we learned that Wilpons' deal with David Einhorn is dead, so now let's recap the rest of the news surrounding the Amazins…
- In the wake of the Einhorn non-deal, the team may now try to sell ten ownership shares for $20MM each to match the $200MM they were expected to receive from Einhorn, report Gregory Zuckerman, Matthew Futterman, and Brian Costa of The Wall Street Journal.
- GM Sandy Alderson indicated to Adam Rubin of ESPN New York that the team's payroll will go down next year. "[The] fact is, even at $100 million or $110 million, we're still in the upper echelon of payrolls," said Alderson. The Mets started the year with a payroll of about $140MM.
- Rubin reports (via Twitter) that lefty reliever Danny Ray Herrera was on the list of players the team chose from to complete the Francisco Rodriguez trade. The Mets have two players to be named later coming from the Brewers, though the identities of both are still unknown.
- "If there's something like that out there, that would be great," said Chris Capuano to Rubin when asked about signing a multi-year deal as a starting pitcher after the season. "If it's a one-year deal or something, at this point in my career I'm excited to have the opportunity to go out there as a starting pitcher. I’m not as concerned with the contracts and everything else. As long as I have an option next year to start, I"ll be happy." Capuano has a 4.38 ERA in 26 starts this year.
B.J. Upton Claimed; No Deal
MONDAY: The deadline to trade Upton has passed, notes Topkin, so he's staying with the Rays.
SATURDAY: B.J. Upton has been claimed off trade waivers by an unknown team, reports Marc Topkin of The St. Petersburg Times. The Rays have until Monday to work out a trade with the claiming team or pull their center fielder back, and Topkin says a deal seems unlikely as of right now.
Upton, who just turned 27, was a popular name before the trade deadline as teams looked for alternatives to the pricier Hunter Pence and Carlos Beltran. The Braves, Indians, Phillies, Giants, Pirates, and Nationals all had interest in July, though the first five teams ended up with other outfielders. The Nats may still have interest, though again we don't know which team actually made the claim.
Scheduled to become a free agent after 2012, Upton is being paid $4.825MM this season and will be arbitration-eligible again this winter. He's hitting just .224/.304/.390 with 17 homers in 495 plate appearances this year, but as always a big chunk of his value comes from his legs (26 steals) and defense (fourth best UZR among all center fielders since 2009).
Outrighted To Triple-A: Jeff Marquez
Let's keep track of Saturday's outright assignments right here…
- The Yankees have outrighted Jeff Marquez to Triple-A according to the International League transactions page. The 27-year-old right-hander was claimed off waivers from the White Sox back in June, though he's currently on the disabled list and rehabbing a shoulder problem. Marquez has allowed three runs in five career big league innings, four coming with New York this season.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Weaver, Cano, Thome
Four years ago today, Astros owner Drayton McLane fired GM Tim Purpura and manager Phil Garner. Houston was 58-73 at the time, a steep fall following six straight winning seasons. Tal Smith replaced Purpura on an interim basis before giving way to current GM Ed Wade after that season, and Cecil Cooper replaced Garner and managed the team until the very end of the 2009 season.
Ownership of the Astros is in the process of being transferred from McLane to Jim Crane, so another GM change could be on the horizon. Here are this week's links…
- Replacement Level Baseball breaks down the Jered Weaver and Jose Tabata extensions.
- Monkey with a Halo wonders which Angel should be the next to get an extension.
- River Ave. Blues thinks it's time for the Yankees to sign Robinson Cano to an extension.
- The Todd Van Poppel Rookie Card Retirement Plan wrote about the Athletics possibly re-signing Josh Willingham after the season.
- Jon Colosimo takes a sabermetric look at what the Twins got back in the Johan Santana trade.
- The Beanball thinks Casper Wells was the key to the Doug Fister trade for the Mariners.
- Rant Sports Indians tries to figure out how much of an impact Jim Thome will have for the Indians.
- BK Sporting News looked at the next matchup of 600 home run hitters.
- FanSpeak says you shouldn't count the Nationals out of the Prince Fielder race after the season.
- MLB Reports broke down Tyler Beede's decision to attend college rather than sign with the Blue Jays as the 21st overall pick.
- Detroit Baseball Page wrote about Alex Avila challenging Brian McCann for the title of "Best Catcher in Baseball."
- Through The Fence Baseball wrote about Adam Dunn and the worst year ever.
- Ol' Ball Game explains how defense has helped the Diamondbacks to first place in the NL West.
- Seedlings To Stars rounded up some opinions on Marlins prospect Matt Dominguez.
- The Days of Yost listed some September call-up candidates for the Brewers (pitchers, position players).
- Call to the Pen took a look at the NL MVP race.
- The Hardball Times broke down David Wright's elite fantasy production.
- Future Closers listed the origin of each NL closer.
- 85% Sports went behind the scenes with a visiting clubhouse manager.
If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here. Only one email per week, please.
Pirates Extend Jose Tabata
The Pirates have locked up one of their core players for nearly a decade. The team officially announced today that outfielder Jose Tabata has signed a six-year contract extension with option years for 2017, 2018, and 2019.
The guaranteed portion of the deal runs through 2016 and includes contract restructuring for 2011. Tabata will receive a $1MM signing bonus, and his 2011 salary increases to $500K. He will then earn $750K in 2012, $1MM in 2013, $3MM in 2014, $4MM in 2015, and $4.5MM in 2016. The three options total $22.5MM – $6.5MM in 2017, $7.5MM in 2018, and $8.5MM in 2019. The Pirates will have the opportunity to buy out Tabata for $250K in any of the three option years, which brings the outfielder's guarantee to $15MM. If the Pirates exercise all three options, the contract could be worth up to $37.25MM.
The contract covers Tabata's three remaining pre-arbitration seasons and his three arbitration seasons. Prior to the completion of the contract, the outfielder amicably parted ways with ACES, his previous agency. He returned from a stint on the DL with a strained quadriceps this week. Tabata is in his second MLB season, and the 23-year-old has a .264/.351/.362 line with 14 doubles, four homers and 14 stolen bases this year.
He finished eighth in National League Rookie of the Year balloting last year and has played all three outfield positions in the Major Leagues. In just shy of 1500 innings, Tabata's outfield defense is league average, according to UZR. The Pirates acquired Tabata, Jeff Karstens, Daniel McCutchen and Ross Ohlendorf from the Yankees for Damaso Marte and Xavier Nady at the 2008 trade deadline.
MLBTR's Tim Dierkes first reported that the two sides were discussing a long-term deal (all four Twitter links). Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch, and Enrique Rojas of ESPNDeportes (multiple links) added details.
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.