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Dodgers Yet To Talk Extension With Kershaw, Ethier

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The Dodgers locked up MVP candidate Matt Kemp to an eight-year, $160MM contract earlier this offseason, but they aren't close to signing any more of their core players. Dylan Hernandez of The Los Angeles Times reports (on Twitter) that the team has yet to discuss long-term contract extensions with Andre Ethier and Clayton Kershaw.

Ethier, 29, is projected to earn $10.7MM in 2012, his final trip through arbitration before becoming a free agent after next season. The two-time All-Star slumped in the power department in 2011, hitting just 11 homers while battling knee and elbow problems. He's a .291/.364/.479 career hitter, though he has struggled against left-handers (.242/.302/.359) and the advanced metrics don't love his defense.

The 23-year-old Kershaw can't become a free agent until after 2015, but signing him might be the more pressing issue for the Dodgers. Our model projects him to earn $8.4MM in 2012 thanks to his Cy Young Award, even though it will be just his first time through arbitration. The southpaw led the National League in wins (21), ERA (2.28) and strikeouts (248) last year, and in his three full seasons he owns a 2.63 ERA and 9.5 K/9 in 608 2/3 innings.

Ben Nicholson-Smith suggested a five-year, $30MM deal for Kershaw back in August 2010, but the Dodgers can forget about that now. A contract in line with the ones signed by Felix Hernandez (five years, $78MM) and Justin Verlander (five years, $80MM) before last season are more reasonable comparables.

Landon Powell Clears Waivers

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Athletics catcher Landon Powell has cleared waivers, reports Susan Slusser of The San Francisco Chronicle (all Twitter links). She notes that Powell can refuse the outright assignment to the minors, but he's unlikely to do so because he'd forfeit his $620K contract for 2012. That contract is not guaranteed, however. Jane Lee of MLB.com says (on Twitter) he has eight days to make the decision.

Powell, 29, was designated for assignment following the Gio Gonzalez trade late last month as Oakland needed to clear 40-man roster space. He told Slusser back then that he hoped to get picked up by another club or traded. Powell is a .207/.284/.328 career hitter in 406 big league plate appearances, and he's thrown out 29 of 73 attempted basestealers during his career, a stellar 39.7%.

Pirates Still Looking For Utility Infielder

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The Pirates continue to look for a utility infielder capable of playing shortstop, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter). Pittsburgh signed Anderson Hernandez earlier this offseason, but they're presumably looking for someone with more offense and experience.

As our Free Agent Tracker shows, players with shortstop experience like Orlando Cabrera, Adam Everett, Craig Counsell, Ryan Theriot, Miguel Tejada, and former Pirate Jack Wilson remain unsigned. It's a stretch to consider some of those players shortstops, however. At the moment, Chase d'Arnaud, Josh Harrison and Yamaico Navarro are slated to back up new addition Clint Barmes.

Marlins Agree To Acquire Carlos Zambrano

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The 2012 Marlins just got a little more interesting. In case Ozzie Guillen, Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Heath Bell didn’t add enough intrigue to the upcoming season, the team has officially acquired Carlos Zambrano from the Cubs for Chris Volstad. The Marlins will pay $2.5MM of Zambrano's $18MM salary in 2012.

Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein had a productive meeting with Zambrano after the season, but the right-hander hadn't seemed wanted in Chicago for a while. The Cubs placed Zambrano on the disqualified list last summer following an August outburst and declined to play him in September, after his 30-day suspension ended.

Icon_9153103Zambrano waived his no-trade clause to play for Guillen, his friend and fellow Venezuelan. Zambrano also waived his $19.25MM option for 2013, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (all Twitter links). His deal now includes a $100K bonus for winning Comeback Player of the Year in 2012. Zambrano settled his summer grievance with the Cubs, obtaining 24 days of salary (nearly $2.4MM), according to Rosenthal.

The deal gives the Marlins a projected rotation of Buehrle, Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez, Ricky Nolasco and Zambrano. It presumably takes the Marlins out of the running for another Cubs starter: right-hander Matt Garza.

Zambrano, 30, posted a 4.82 ERA with 6.2 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 and a 42.4% ground ball rate in 145 2/3 innings for the Cubs in 2011. He has spent his entire 11-year career with the Cubs and earned nearly $100MM in the process. Zambrano, a three-time Silver Slugger, owns a .241/.251/.395 career line as a hitter and has hit 23 home runs. The Cubs signed him out of Venezuela in 1997 under former GM Ed Lynch.

Volstad, a 6'8" right-hander, posted a 4.89 ERA with 6.4 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 52.3% ground ball rate in 165 2/3 innings for the Marlins in 2011. His career numbers (4.59 ERA, 5.8 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 50.4% ground ball rate) show he's a steady if unspectacular back-of-the-rotation option. However, he's homer prone and struggles against left-handers, as MLBTR's Mike Axisa pointed out earlier in the offseason.

The 25-year-old former first rounder projects to earn $2.6MM through arbitration in 2012 and will remain under team control through 2014, which makes him a relatively affordable medium-term option.

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports first reported that the teams were nearing a deal (Twitter links). Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, Juan C. Rodriguez of The Sun Sentinel and Bruce Levine of ESPN Chicago also contributed to the story as it broke. Ben Nicholson-Smith contributed to this post. Photo courtesy of Icon SMI. 

Yankees Fail To Reach Deal With Hiroyuki Nakajima

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The Yankees and Hiroyuki Nakajima have failed to reach an agreement on a contract, the team announced. New York won the negotiating rights to the infielder with a bid around $2MM last month.

“We unfortunately could not come to an agreement with Hiroyuki," said GM Brian Cashman in a statement. "We wish him the best of luck during the upcoming 2012 season.”

Earlier this week we heard that the two sides were unlikely to come to an agreement before tomorrow's 4pm CT deadline. The Yankees viewed Nakajima as a bench player and intended to pay him like one, and Jack Curry of the YES Network says (on Twitter) they offered him a one-year deal, nothing more. The 29-year-old hit .297/.354/.433 with 16 home runs and 27 doubles in 633 plate appearances for the Seibu Lions in 2011. Legacy Sports represents him in the U.S.

The Yankees do not have to pay the posting fee since no agreement was reached. Nakajima will return to Japan for another season, then become an international free agent next offseason.

Rangers Notes: Napoli, Fielder, Darvish, Bullpen

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Yesterday we heard that Yu Darvish was in the Dallas-Forth Worth Metroplex to see the area as well as the Rangers' operations first-hand. No deal is close though, and the two sides have 13 days to get one done. Here's the latest from Texas, courtesy of MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan…

  • "We love Mike and we're not closing the door on anything but right now we are focused on a one-year deal," said Daniels in reference to a long-term deal for Mike Napoli. The backstop is arbitration-eligible for the final time and projects to earn $8.5MM in 2012. The two sides were discussing a long-term deal last month.
  • Daniels made it clear the team is not interested in Prince Fielder as their focus right now is on Darvish. If something falls apart with the righty, Sullivan speculates that they could turn their attention to Fielder.
  • The Rangers are still interested in upgrading their bullpen, with lefty relief being a primary focus. Texas recently lost southpaw Darren Oliver to the Blue Jays.

Darvish Visiting Dallas; No Deal Close

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Yu Darvish is currently in the Dallas-Forth Worth Metroplex with his father to see the area and get a first-hand look at the Rangers' operations, reports Jeff Wilson of The Star-Telegram. The two sides are not close to a deal, however. "He isn't [there] for a press conference," said one of Wilson's sources, who notes that Darvish will return to Japan this week to begin his offseason workouts. Here's the latest on the right-hander…

  • The two sides have until January 17th to reach a deal, reports Maury Brown of The Biz of Baseball (on Twitter). We're exactly two weeks away.
  • "There's no reason to think this won't get done," said a high-ranking baseball person to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. "There's no reason to think this has to go to the deadline, either." Most contract negotiations through the posting process have gone right down to the wire.
  • Heyman's sources have suggested that Darvish would seek at least $65MM over five years.
  • The Yankees bid just $15MM for Darvish, reports Heyman (on Twitter). 

Padres Acquire Carlos Quentin

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The Padres have acquired Carlos Quentin from the White Sox for pitching prospects Simon Castro and Pedro Hernandez, the teams announced.  It's the second time Padres GM Josh Byrnes and White Sox GM Kenny Williams have gotten together for a trade involving Quentin; Byrnes was the Diamondbacks GM when the outfielder was traded from Arizona to the ChiSox in 2007. 

Quentin, 29, grew up in San Diego and will instantly add some power to the offensively challenged Padres' lineup.  The right-hander hitter produced a .254/.340/.499 batting line with 24 homers in 2011, and he's hit .257/.352/.505 with at least 21 homers per year from '08-'11.

13076543During his time in Chicago, the outfielder has battled shoulder, foot, hamstring, and wrist problems, requiring four separate stints on the disabled list.  We project him to earn $7.5MM his third time through arbitration in 2012 before becoming a free agent after the season.  On the surface, the deal appears to be a cost-cutting measure for the White Sox.

Castro, a 23-year-old right-hander, was ranked as the Padres third best prospect at this time last year by Baseball America but was left off of this year's top ten list.  In 2009, Castro was tabbed as the best pitcher in the Padres system after turning in a 3.33 ERA with 10.1 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 for the club's Single-A affiliate.  The 6-foot-5 hurler started off 2011 with Double-A San Antonio before being promoted to Triple-A Tucson.  Combined, Castro posted a 5.63 ERA with 7.4 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 in 2011. 

Hernandez, 22, was also left off of Baseball America's top ten list of Padres prospects in 2011.  The left-hander worked his way up from Class-A+ Lake Elsinore to San Antonio and finished the year in Tuscon.  In total, Hernandez turned in 116 innings of work with a 3.49 ERA, 7.3 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9.

Neither prospect was ranked among the top 25 in San Diego's system by John Sickels of Minor League Ball while Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus had Castro tabbed at No. 20.  Goldstein writes that Castro has "gone backwards from [his] big prospect days" and cites the fastball as his only dependable pitch.

The first time Josh Byrnes and Ken Williams hooked up in a trade involving Quentin, the outfielder was sent to the White Sox for first baseman Chris Carter.

Zach Links contributed to this post.

Poll: Which Team Will Sign Carlos Pena?

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It’s been a very slow offseason for Carlos Pena, at least in terms of hot stove rumors. The 33-year-old first baseman was understandably overshadowed by Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder heading into free agency, and even now he’s still playing second fiddle to Fielder, a fellow Scott Boras client.

Pena is one of the best remaining free agent power hitters, hitting at least 28 homers in each of the last five seasons. Although his batting average (.216 from ’09-’11) leaves much to be desired, he still draws plenty of walks (walked in 15.6% of his plate appearances from ’09-’11) and gets on base at a solid clip (.346 OBP from ’09-’11). Pena is generally regarded as a strong defender at first, but he’s going to need a platoon partner after hitting just .179/.306/.398 against southpaws from ’09-’11.

Boras is confident that he’ll get multiyear offers for Pena, who is a Type-B free agent and will not require the signing team to forfeit a draft pick. The Blue Jays, Brewers, Indians, Mariners, Nationals, Orioles, Pirates, Rangers, and Rays are all in the hunt for an upgrade at first base/designated hitter, and we shouldn’t rule out a return to the Cubs either.

Which team will sign Carlos Pena?
Brewers 19.52% (3,096 votes)
Cubs 12.56% (1,992 votes)
Rays 10.04% (1,593 votes)
Pirates 9.18% (1,456 votes)
Blue Jays 9.11% (1,446 votes)
Mariners 8.81% (1,397 votes)
Orioles 8.71% (1,382 votes)
Indians 7.78% (1,235 votes)
Another team not listed 6.53% (1,036 votes)
Rangers 4.37% (694 votes)
Nationals 3.39% (537 votes)
Total Votes: 15,864

Remaining Free Agent Strikeout Relievers

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Everyone loves having relievers that can strike batters out in their bullpen, guys that can record outs all by themselves without the help of their defense. That comes in handy when there are men in base, since it's really hard to score without putting the ball in play. Take David Robertson of the Yankees for example; he faced 19 batters with the bases loaded last season and struck out 14 of them. Great way to prevent runs.

The pool of unsigned free agent relievers is at least 30 pitchers deep, but not all of those relievers are strikeout guys. We're going to take a look at those with an affinity for strike three using two metrics: K/9 and K%. You're probably familiar with K/9, which is strikeouts per nine innings. The league average was 7.13 K/9 in 2011, and Kenley Jansen led all qualified relievers with 16.10 K/9. The second metric, K%, is simply the percentage of batters faced that the pitcher struck out. It's a more accurate measure of strikeout proficiency. The league average was 18.6% in 2011, and Jansen again led all qualified relievers at 44.0%. 

As you'll see below, the K/9 and K% leaderboards are similar but not identical. More efficient pitchers will have a higher K%, even though they may have a lower K/9 than their baserunner-prone counterparts. Here are lists of unsigned free agent relievers with above average K/9 and K% rates. 

Strikeouts Per Nine Innings (K/9)

  1. Kerry Wood – 10.06
  2. Ryan Madson – 9.20
  3. Mike Gonzalez – 8.61
  4. Michael Wuertz – 8.55
  5. Juan Cruz – 8.51
  6. Chad Durbin – 7.77
  7. Fernando Rodney – 7.31

Dan Wheeler just missed the cut with a 7.11 K/9. He would have posted an above average 7.30 K/9 with just one more strikeout last year, and I'm sure an umpire robbed him of a strike three call somewhere along the line. Free agent closer Francisco Cordero struck out a well below average 5.43 batters per nine innings last year.

Strikeouts Per Batters Faced (K%)

  1. Wood – 25.5%
  2. Madson – 25.2%
  3. Cruz – 23.0%
  4. Gonzalez – 22.2%
  5. Wuertz – 19.8%
  6. Wheeler – 19.4%
  7. Durbin – 18.6%

Rodney (17.3%) drops off the list in favor of Wheeler, which essentially means that more of the outs he recorded were strikeouts, but Wheeler was more efficient and struck out a higher percentage of the batters he faced. Make sense? Cordero was again well below average at 15.3%.

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