The Opener: Astros, Pham, Perez
With the first game of the regular season just days away, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Are the Astros in or out on Snell?
It’s been a whirlwind of a weekend for Astros fans, as the club was reported as being in “serious pursuit” of reigning NL Cy Young award winner Blake Snell. It’s easy to see why Snell would appeal to them in particular, even beyond his pair of Cy Young Awards, as Houston’s starting pitching corps will be without not only Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia Jr. but also Justin Verlander and possibly Jose Urquidy to open the season. Southpaw Framber Valdez and right-hander Cristian Javier are the top healthy starters for the ‘Stros, but both took steps back from their 2022 performance last season.
While adding Snell to the mix would be a surefire way to improve the club’s rotation mix dramatically, there’s reason for skepticism about the odds of the sides coming together. Reporting yesterday described the Astros as “long-shots” to ultimately land Snell, casting doubt on the club’s willingness to offer a deal in the $30MM range, which would push them past the third threshold of the luxury tax. Speculatively speaking, the club could pivot to a more affordable rotation arm still available on the market should they be unwilling to stomach Snell’s asking price. Both Michael Lorenzen and Mike Clevinger are still unsigned.
2. Will Pham, Padres complete deal?
While the Padres’ 2023 Cy Young award winner appears to be headed out the door, another player could be poised for a reunion in San Diego. Veteran outfielder Tommy Pham is reportedly in talks with the club on a one-year deal with a salary in the $3MM to $4MM range. The 36-year-old makes plenty of sense for the Padres, who are set to enter the Seoul Series against the Dodgers later this week with Jose Azocar and Jurickson Profar as their top options in left field alongside top prospect Jackson Merrill in center and star Fernando Tatis Jr. in right.
Both Azocar and Profar were more than 20% below league average with the bat last year per wRC+. Installing Pham, who slashed an above average .256/.328/.446 in 129 games with the Mets and Diamondbacks, as the everyday left fielder would be a substantial upgrade. Even though San Diego is a clear fit for Pham’s services, they aren’t the only suitor for the veteran. The White Sox are reportedly involved in Pham’s market as well, where the veteran would presumably serve as a right-handed complement to Dominic Fletcher and Andrew Benintendi in the outfield corners.
3. Perez meeting with surgeon:
Marlins youngster Eury Perez is reportedly dealing with elbow soreness, setting the right-hander up to likely start the season on the injured list. Its a brutal blow to Miami’s rotation plans, particularly in conjunction with the shoulder issues that both Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera are dealing with elsewhere in the rotation mix. The number of injuries plaguing the club’s rotation seems to be spurring an all-hands-on-deck approach to the Opening Day rotation. Even more impactful for the club than the decisions on how to fill out the rotation behind Opening Day starter Jesus Luzardo will be Perez’s reported meeting with orthopedic surgeon Keith Meister, who performed right-hander Sandy Alcantara‘s Tommy John surgery back in the fall.
Such a meeting isn’t necessarily an indication that Perez is slated for a similar fate, but it’s a clear sign that the Marlins are taking the bout of soreness in Perez’s elbow seriously. Perez impressed over 91 1/3 innings of work in his rookie season last year, pitching to a 3.15 ERA with a 4.11 FIP in 19 starts in just his age-20 season.
Astros Reportedly “Long-Shots” To Land Blake Snell
The Astros have been the buzz of the baseball world this weekend following reporting that indicated the club was in “serious pursuit” of the top remaining free agent, reigning NL Cy Young award winner Blake Snell. Reporting from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale earlier today indicates that the club may be a “long-shot” to ultimately land the southpaw, however. Nightengale reports that the club has “balked” at the asking price from Snell’s camp, which he adds stands at a $60MM guarantee over two years that includes an opt-out following the 2024 season. Houston, Nightengale adds, is conscious of being pushed over an additional luxury tax threshold by a Snell deal with an AAV in the $30MM range. Nightengale goes on to suggest that the Giants currently appear to be the favorites for Snell’s services, though he makes clear that San Francisco has been waiting for Snell’s price to drop even as they’ve remained engaged with the southpaw.
It’s not necessarily a surprise that the Astros would be worried about stomaching a $30MM annual commitment for Snell’s services. The club is already in unprecedented territory with regards to its player payroll; Cot’s Baseball Contracts notes that Houston has never entered a season with a projected payroll above their $187MM figure from the 2021 season, but RosterResource projects the club to blow that figure out of the water this year with a whopping $240MM payroll entering the 2024 campaign. That figure reaches nearly $256MM for luxury tax purposes, just over $1MM shy of the second, $257MM tax threshold.
Virtually any addition to the club’s payroll at any point this season would push them past that level, but a more significant addition such as Snell would leave the club at risk of going over the third threshold, which stands at $277MM for the 2024 season. While the first two brackets of the luxury tax come with only financial considerations, the penalties get stiffer when a clubs surpasses the third threshold. Those penalties most notably include the club’s highest pick in the following year’s draft being pushed back ten places, which is further compounded by an associated cut to the club’s bonus pool for signing their draft picks that year. Given the elevated costs involved with a pursuit of Snell, it was hardly surprising when GM Dana Brown suggested that the club wasn’t interested in pursuing additional starting pitching this spring, even name-dropping Snell specifically as a player the club would “love to have” but didn’t expect to sign.
Of course, it’s hard to overstate just how impactful Snell could be for the Astros rotation even in spite of those ancillary concerns. Right-handers Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis García Jr. are both set to open the season on the injured list and miss considerable time this season. They’ll also be joined at least for the early days of the campaign by veteran ace Justin Verlander, whose start to the season has been delayed soreness in his right shoulder. Those injuries leave the club’s rotation depth in an tough spot entering the season, and a recent injury scare regarding Jose Urquidy has only exacerbated those concerns. KRPC2’s Ari Alexander reported recently that Urquidy has been dealing with “forearm stiffness” per a source, while manager Joe Espada told reporters yesterday that the right-hander has flown back to Houston from the club’s spring complex in Florida to meet with team doctors.
Losing Urquidy could leave the club to rely on depth options such as Hunter Brown, J.P. France, and Ronel Blanco behind a front-of-the-rotation duo featuring Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier, at least for the start of the season. Adding Snell to that mix would not only give the club much-needed additional pitching depth early in the season, but would also add an impactful, playoff-caliber arm to a rotation that saw each of Verlander, Valdez, and Javier take steps back in 2023 from the 2022 form that saw the group stand among the very best starting trios in baseball that year. While Snell certainly has flashed inconsistencies of his own throughout his career, posting a relatively pedestrian 3.85 ERA and 3.44 FIP from 2019 to 2022, he’s nonetheless ranged from a dependable mid-rotation arm to an elite, front-of-the-rotation flamethrower throughout his eight years in the majors and would be a surefire upgrade to an Astros club looking to make an eighth consecutive postseason appearance this fall.
On the other hand, Snell would provide all those same benefits to the Giants. San Francisco has had a busy offseason, bringing in Bob Melvin to replace Gabe Kapler in the managers’ chair while adding the likes of Matt Chapman, Jorge Soler, Jung Hoo Lee, and Jordan Hicks in free agency. With that being said, the club has done little to address a rotation mix that delivered the least innings among all major league clubs last year. Hicks has moved from the bullpen into the rotation since joining San Francisco, and the club could also receive a boost from trade acquisition Robbie Ray midseason upon his return from Tommy John surgery sometimes this summer. With Ray, Alex Cobb, and Tristan Beck all set to open the season on the injured list, however, it leaves the club with minimal certainty in the rotation behind staff ace Logan Webb.
Given how much the club would benefit from another front-of-the-rotation arm to pair with Webb, it’s not a surprise that the Giants continue to be involved in Snell’s market. Despite comments from club chairman Greg Johnson back in February that suggested the club planned to rely on young rotation arms such as Kyle Harrison and Keaton Winn entering the 2024 season, reporting has indicated that San Francisco has remained in the mix for Snell in recent weeks, though the club has signaled that it did not anticipate further major additions after signing Chapman earlier this month.
While it’s unclear how far Snell’s price would have to fall for San Francisco to pounce, the club’s books figure to have far more flexibility than those in Houston. RosterResource projects the club for a payroll of just $177MM entering the 2024 season, likely leaving ample room for the club to fit Snell into the budget. While the club’s luxury tax payroll stands at a somewhat higher $226MM figure, even an AAV approaching Snell’s reported $30MM asking price would leave the club just a touch under the second luxury tax threshold.
West Notes: Black, Giants, Soderstrom
Rockies manager Bud Black and owner Dick Monfort are discussing a contract extension that would keep Black in Colorado beyond the 2024 season, per a report from MLB.com’s Thomas Harding. Harding notes that while Black and Monfort acknowledged that they are “talking” about a deal, no agreement has been reached at this point and it’s unclear if a deal will come together prior to Opening Day, which is now less than two weeks away.
Per Harding, Monfort indicated that the club’s focus remains on preparing for the regular season, but that he nonetheless hopes that the sides will be able to reach an agreement. There’s certainly reason for optimism that the sides will eventually work out a deal in some capacity, as the veteran manager has inked one-year extensions in each of the past two springs and reporting in previous years has indicated that the Rockies and Black have a long-standing unofficial agreement on a rolling year-to-year deal where either side can walk away after any given season.
Black, 66, spent nine years as manager of the Padres from 2007 to 2015 (including a 2010 season that saw him win the NL Manager of the Year award) before joining the Rockies prior to the 2017 season. He led the club to back-to-back postseason appearances in his first two years with the club but the club has struggled badly under his leadership over the past five seasons, never winning more than 74 games in a season and even suffering the franchise’s first ever 100-loss campaign in 2023, when the team lost 103 games en route to a last place finish in not only the NL West but the entire National League; only the Royals and A’s lost more games last year. With that being said, Monfort is well-known for being loyal to his employees and valuing continuity in the organization, so it’s not necessarily a surprise that he would be interested in continuing the club’s relationship with Black beyond the 2024 campaign.
More from around MLB’s West divisions…
- The Giants are set to enter the regular season with little certainty in their starting rotation behind staff ace Logan Webb. With veterans Alex Cobb and Robbie Ray starting the season on the injured list where they’ll be joined by youngsters like Tristan Beck and Sean Hjelle, the club figures to lean on offseason signing Jordan Hicks and top prospect Kyle Harrison to fill out the middle of its rotation. That still leaves two spots undecided, however, and Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle noted today that manager Bob Melvin brought up right-handed rookie Mason Black as one arm the club is likely to turn to for a rotation spot this season. Black, 24, was the club’s third-round pick in the 2021 draft and posted a solid 3.71 ERA in 29 starts split between the Double- and Triple-A levels last year. Slusser adds that other possibilities for the final spots in the rotation and/or bullpen mix are fellow youngster Keaton Winn and non-roster veterans Daulton Jefferies and Spencer Howard. Of course, that could all change if the club’s reported run at left-hander Blake Snell were to bear fruit.
- The Athletics announced earlier this evening that they have optioned catcher Tyler Soderstrom to Triple-A, effectively ending the 2020 first-round pick’s bid to open the 2024 season with the club. Soderstrom, 22, was a consensus top-100 prospect entering last season as a well-regarded, bat-first catcher. Things came off the rails for the youngster upon making his major league debut, however, as he hit a paltry .160/.232/.240 in 138 trips to the plate during a 45-game stint in the majors last year. Soderstrom’s first taste of big league action saw him strike out in 31.2% of his plate appearances while recording just four extra-base hits. His struggles continued this spring as he recorded just four hits against eight strikeouts in 34 trips to the plate across 14 games, prompting Oakland to send him back to the minors for additional development time. In the meantime, the club appears likely to rely on a tandem of Shea Langeliers and non-roster invitee Carlos Perez behind the plate to open the season.
Mike Clevinger Seeking One-Year Deal
USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported this morning that right-hander Mike Clevinger is seeking a one-year contract according to Clevinger’s agent, Seth Levinson of ACES.
The news regarding Clevinger’s market sets up a contrast between the veteran right-hander and the other free agent starting pitchers still available. Top-of-the-market southpaws Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery are both seeking pricey multi-year contracts, with the latest reporting on Snell indicating that the lefty is seeking an opt-out laden two- or three-year guarantee with an AAV in the $30MM range, while Montgomery was rumored to be angling for a seven-year pact earlier this month. Even righty Michael Lorenzen, the other mid-market pitcher still available, is reportedly seeking a two-year deal, with recent reports indicating that the 32-year-old has turned down one-year offers in the $5-7MM range.
While it’s not clear where Clevinger’s salary expectations are as things stand, it’s nonetheless easy to see the 33-year-old’s willingness to accept a one-year deal making the right-hander a more attractive option for clubs looking to bolster their pitching depth with less than two weeks remaining until Opening Day. The dwindling time to find a new home before the season begins is perhaps even more significant for Clevinger than it is for other players left on the market, as the veteran has not been publicly connected to any of MLB’s 30 clubs since hitting free agency back in November.
Despite that lack of public interest, the veteran was clearly among the more interesting mid-to-back of the rotation options available this winter, even as free agency was just getting started. While Clevinger can hardly be expected to replicate the early-career dominance he enjoyed in Cleveland that saw him compare favorably to front-of-the-rotation arms such as Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer, a strong platform campaign with the White Sox last year saw Clevinger flash mid-rotation results. Despite being limited to just 131 1/3 innings by a right wrist injury, the veteran posted a solid 3.77 ERA with a 4.28 FIP in Chicago last season, with even stronger results after returning from the injury in late July. Over his final 12 starts last year, Clevinger pitched to a 3.67 ERA with a nearly-matching 3.75 FIP.
That solid mid-rotation performance comes with some questionable peripherals, however. While Clevinger’s velocity returned in his second season back from Tommy John surgery last year as he average 94.6 mph with his heater, he struck out just 20% of batters faced while generating grounders at a career-worst 30.9% clip. Clevinger’s below-average strikeout and groundball rates are a far cry from his peak years in Cleveland, when he struck out 28.3% of batters faced to go along with a 40.3% grounder rate. Even with those diminished peripherals, however, Clevinger figured to be an excellent option for a club looking to bolster the back of its rotation this winter.
Of course, that hasn’t panned out to this point as Clevinger remains on the market, but a rash of pitching injuries around the game could perhaps open the door for Clevinger to latch on with a club in need of starting depth entering the season. The Red Sox, Astros, Marlins, Yankees, and Giants have all faced unexpected injuries in the rotation throughout the spring, and Clevinger could be a cost-effective insurance policy for any of those clubs if they wish to bolster their rotation in light of those injuries. While the veteran right-hander can’t be expected to replace the production of a front-of-the-rotation arm such as Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander, or Eury Perez, his ability to offer stability to the middle or back of a club’s rotation could help raise the floor for a rotation-needy club ahead of Opening Day. What’s more, his apparent desire for a straight one-year pact provides flexibility that could be particularly attractive to clubs such as the Astros or Marlins that figure to have plenty of rotation depth in the long-term but are currently struggling with multiple injuries.
TJ Friedl Facing Extended Absence Due To Wrist Fracture
Reds center fielder TJ Friedl was pulled from yesterday’s game with what the club initially termed a right wrist sprain, as noted by Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Since then, however, the club provided a far more dire update regarding Friedl’s status: the 28-year-old’s new diagnosis is a right wrist fracture that will keep him off the club’s Opening Day roster as he figures to miss an “extended period.” Per Wittenmyer, Friedl indicated to reporters this evening that he’ll have to wait for the bone to heal before he can resume baseball activities. While no timetable for Friedl’s return was specified, he expressed optimism that he play for the Reds at some point this year. He’ll be re-evaluated in three to four weeks to determine next steps in his rehab process.
The news is a major blow to the club’s chances in a competitive NL Central division this season. The 28-year-old was one of the club’s most reliable all-around contributors last year with a .279/.352/467 slash line in 138 games to go along with 27 stolen bases and strong defense in center field. That strong performance left Friedl in position to be one of the most crucial pieces in the club’s positional mix this season, particularly given the club’s relative lack of outfield depth in comparison to their famously deep infield mix. In Friedl’s absence, the club will likely turn to the likes of Will Benson and Stuart Fairchild in center field to open the season. That would open up playing time on the infield corners for the likes of Spencer Steer, Jake Fraley, and Jonathan India. Nick Martini and Bubba Thompson are among the club’s depth options in the outfield currently on the 40-man roster.
Between the loss of Friedl to injury and third baseman Noelvi Marte‘s 80-game suspension following a positive test for the performance enhancing substance Boldenone, the Reds figure to enter the season with substantially less depth on the positional side than expected entering the season. That will mean additional opportunities- and additional pressure- for the club’s bevy of young infielders, which includes the likes of Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand, each of whom appear likely to get everyday at-bats alongside the likes of Jeimer Candelario, India, and Steer in the club’s infield mix while Friedl and Marte are unavailable. The club also has a handful of non-roster options who could provide additional infield depth coming off the bench, such as Tony Kemp and Josh Harrison.
While those internal options all figure to be under consideration for the Reds, Wittenmyer indicated that president of baseball operations Nick Krall didn’t rule out looking outside of the organization for additional help on the positional side in light of Friedl’s injury. The Reds made clear how much they valued their position player depth this winter when they not only decided against trading Jonathan India despite him being seemingly squeezed out of the club’s everyday lineup, but doubled down on that decision by adding Candelario to the infield mix on a three-year deal. Those decisions have already paid off in a big way for the club by softening the blow of losing Marte and Friedl before the 2024 season has even begun, and it would be understandable if Krall was interested in finding ways to further bolster the club’s depth.
With that being said, the Pirates’ recent deal with veteran outfielder Michael A. Taylor took the last surefire center fielder off the free agent market last week, meaning the Reds would likely be forced to look to the trade market if they hope to improve their current outfield mix. It would be a surprise to see Cincinnati swing a major move for another bat, though it’s certainly possible the club could look to add a veteran currently in camp with another club on a non-roster deal who isn’t rostered by his current organization, either by way of a minor trade before Spring Training comes to a close or perhaps simply by waiting for them to trigger an opt-out clause and return to the open market. Oscar Mercado, Tim Locastro, Brett Phillips, Rafael Ortega, Trayce Thompson, and Albert Almora are among the many veteran center fielders currently in camp with other clubs on minor league deals who could be speculative fits for a bench role with the Reds should they be made available.
Padres To Name Jackson Merrill Opening Day Center Fielder
The Padres are poised to name top prospect Jackson Merrill the club’s Opening Day center fielder, per a report from MLB Network’s Jon Morosi. The news comes just days before the club is set to face the Dodgers in a two-game regular season set in South Korea as part of MLB’s Seoul Series. Game 1 of that set is scheduled for 5:05am CT Wednesday morning, or 7:05pm local time that evening. The club will need to select Merrill’s contract before then, but won’t need to make a corresponding 40-man roster move as the roster currently stands at 36.
Merrill, 21 in April, was the club’s first-round pick in the 2021 draft and is a consensus top-20 prospect in the sport. The youngster is something of a surprising choice for the role, at least on paper. He’s not yet played a game above Double-A in his big league career, having slashed a solid but unspectacular .277/.326/.444 in 114 games split between the High-A and Double-A levels last year. Perhaps even more importantly, Merrill had never appeared in center field in a professional game until camp opened last month. His professional outfield experience to that point consisted of 45 innings of work in left field that season. Prior to that, his professional work had come almost exclusively at shortstop, though he also made brief cameos at both first and second base.
With all that being said, the club’s decision to go with Merrill in center field on Opening Day is certainly a defensible one. Prospect evaluators around the game are unanimous in their belief in Merrill’s talent, with Baseball America lauding him as a future middle-of-the-order threat who figures to have the power for 30 homers a year while Fangraphs describes him as having “one of the prettiest swings in the minors” with excellent contact abilities. Furthermore, while his lack of upper-level reps at the plate and professional time in center field will certainly raise some eyebrows, Merrill has clearly done everything he can to prove himself ready for a big league opportunity this spring. In 40 plate appearances across 13 games during camp, Merrill slashed an excellent .351/.400/.595 while playing solid defense in center.
Of course, the decision to roster Merrill as the club’s Opening Day center fielder is also the results of a host of other decisions outside of Merrill’s control. Chief among them is the club choosing to part ways with superstar Juan Soto alongside Trent Grisham in a trade with the Yankees that removed two of the club’s three Opening Day starters in the outfield last year from the roster back in December. Since then, the club has been tied to external outfield options including Michael A. Taylor, Kevin Kiermaier, and Tommy Pham. The likes of Taylor and Kiermaier have since signed elsewhere, however, and while there may be some momentum toward a deal with Pham, the 36-year-old veteran hasn’t appeared in center field on a regular basis since 2018, with just 15 starts up the middle in the years since then.
That lack of clear options for the center field job led the Padres to look toward their internal, non-roster pieces for their next center fielder. Fellow prospect Jakob Marsee as well as veterans such as Oscar Mercado and Tim Locastro all joined Merrill as potential solutions in center when camp began last month, though of that group only Mercado was able to keep up with Merrill’s blistering performance this spring and the club recently tipped their hand regarding their decision by including only Merrill, corner bats Jose Azocar and Jurickson Profar, and right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. as outfielders on their 31-man travel roster for the Seoul Series.
It’s possible Merrill won’t be the only rookie with minimal upper-minors experience on the club’s Opening Day lineup, as the club also included Graham Pauley on their travel roster for the coming series. The Athletic’s Dennis Lin indicated last week that Pauley was likely in position to fill in for veteran third baseman Manny Machado at the hot corner to open the season, as Machado will begin the season at DH while he recovers from elbow surgery, which he underwent back in October. Pauley, 23, was a 13th-round pick by the Padres in the 2022 draft and enjoyed a breakout season last year as he slashed a whopping .308/.393/.539 in 127 games split between the Single-A, High-A, and Double-A levels.
Mets Notes: Davis, Alonso, McNeil
The Mets were a finalist for third baseman J.D. Davis before he signed with the A’s last week, as noted by Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Per Sherman, a “large extent” of Davis’s reason for picking the A’s was that the A’s guaranteed him regular playing time, while the Mets weren’t able to do the same.
Davis, 31 next month, slashed a decent .248/.325/.413 with a 104 wRC+ last year as a member of the Giants and sports a strong 120 wRC+ in five seasons since he first broke out with the Mets back in 2019. A reunion in New York could have made plenty of sense, given the uncertainty the club is facing at both third base and DH entering the 2023 season. That being said, it’s hardly a surprise that the club wasn’t willing to guarantee Davis regular playing time. After all, president of baseball operations David Stearns has frequently made clear that the club doesn’t plan to make further additions at third base after signing Joey Wendle to a one-year deal back in November, instead letting youngsters Brett Baty and Mark Vientos attempt to claim the position while relying on Wendle as veteran insurance off the bench.
It’s a similar story at DH. While the club has been linked to veteran slugger J.D. Martinez as recently as last week, the club has long seemed to prefer to fill the spot internally by allowing Baty and Vientos additional time in the lineup when they aren’t playing third base while also opening up opportunities for the likes of DJ Stewart, who slashed an impressive .244/.333/.506 in 185 trips to the plate with the club last year, and offering the club the ability to rest veterans like Starling Marte without completely removing them from the lineup. While Davis was certainly a strong fit for the club’s positional needs, it’s possible they felt that his roughly league average numbers last year wouldn’t be enough of an upgrade to their roster to warrant passing on the opportunity to give younger players like Baty and Vientos regular reps.
More from around Mets camp…
- Club owner Steve Cohen spoke to reporters (including SNY’s Alex Smith), and during the presser discussed the future of first baseman Pete Alonso, who is slated to hit free agency following the 2024 season. Cohen made clear that the sides “haven’t had any discussions” regarding a possible extension this spring, adding that it would be best for both Alonso and the Mets if the sides went into the regular season without any distractions. Cohen’s words echo previous comments from Stearns, who has long indicated that Alonso was likely to hit free agency following the coming campaign. Even so, Cohen made clear that Alonso hitting free agency was in no way a guarantee that 2024 would be his final year as a Met, saying that the club will “figure it out” once free agency hits while noting the club’s successful deals to retain closer Edwin Diaz and center fielder Brandon Nimmo after the pair hit free agency during the 2022-23 offseason. One of the game’s premiere power hitters, Alonso owns a lifetime .251/.342/.528 slash line and has slugged 192 home runs during his career, 46 of which came during the 2023 season.
- As noted recently by Sherman, second baseman Jeff McNeil has yet to appear in a game this spring as he continues to recover from a partially torn UCL he was diagnosed with back in September. NcNeil was able to avoid surgery, but the club has taken things slow with him this spring to this point. While he was initially expected to make his spring debut during today’s game against the Nationals, Sherman relays that, per manager Carlos Mendoza, that’s been pushed back to a likely debut on Tuesday against the Cardinals in order to keep McNeil in a more controlled setting as long as possible. While a lengthy layoff from spring action often spurs questions about a player’s ability to be ready for Opening Day, Sherman adds that the Mets hold no such concern about McNeil, with hitting coach Eric Chavez suggesting that McNeil only needs 20 at-bats in spring games to prepare for the coming season. McNeil has played all around the diamond during his time with the Mets but figures to act as the club’s everyday second baseman in 2024.
Eury Perez To Undergo Imaging Due To Elbow Soreness
The Marlins announced this afternoon that right-hander Eury Perez is experiencing elbow soreness and is set to undergo imaging and testing over the course of the coming days. Jon Heyman of the New York Post adds that part of the club’s diagnostic process will be a trip to Texas, where Perez will meet with noted orthopedic surgeon Dr. Keith Meister. Earlier this week, Perez was pulled from a Spring Training start after just 14 pitches due to discomfort caused by a broken fingernail.
It’s a brutal blow for the Marlins, who have been ravaged by rotation injuries this offseason. Sandy Alcantara underwent Tommy John surgery back in the fall and is set to miss the entire 2024 campaign, and since then both Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera have dealt with shoulder issues that could relegate them to the injured list to begin the season. Now Perez appears all but certain to open the regular season on the shelf as well. While the severity of the 20-year-old phenom’s specific issue is uncertain, concerns regarding the elbow are particularly ominous due to the possibility of a lengthy absence.
Elbow surgeries can often wipe out a pitcher’s entire season, as is the case with Alcantara, and even non-surgical rehab can take a pitcher away from game action for months at a time, as was recently demonstrated by Yankees ace Gerrit Cole. Even in the best case scenario, the time spent determining the extent of Perez’s injury figures to set him back as he looks to build up his pitch count for the regular season. Perez’s aforementioned fingernail issue has limited his ability to prepare for the coming season this spring, and with just two weeks until Opening Day and the right-hander likely to be sidelined for at least a few more days, it’s hard to imagine him being able to avoid at least a brief stint on the injured list.
With Perez, Cabrera, and Garrett all at least at risk of joining Alcantara on the injured list to open the season, that leaves southpaw Jesus Luzardo as the only member of the club’s on-paper starting rotation who is currently expected to be available on Opening Day. Southpaw A.J. Puk was already widely expected to begin the season in the club’s rotation after the club made the decision to stretch the lefty out despite his success as a high-leverage arm in the club’s bullpen last year, and the injuries also seem likely to open the door for the likes of Trevor Rogers and Ryan Weathers to step into rotation roles as the season begins. That would still leave the fifth spot in the club’s rotation vacant, however, though right-hander Bryan Hoeing represents one option already on the 40-man roster and the club has plenty of potential non-roster options at its disposal including Yonny Chirinos, Vladimir Gutierrez, and Devin Smeltzer.
Of course, none of those potential depth options can be reasonably expected to deliver the sort of impact that Perez offers. The righty, 21 next month, was a consensus top-15 prospect in all of baseball when he made his debut for Miami last year, and he immediately flashed the front-of-the-rotation potential that his prospect pedigree suggested as he dazzled with a microscopic 1.34 ERA and a solid 3.02 FIP in his first nine starts in the majors. He struck out 29.2% of batters faced during that stretch, and while midsummer struggles led the club to limit his workload down the stretch the youngster nonetheless features prominently in the club’s plans for the 2024 season and beyond. So much so, in fact, that Perez was generally regarded as the club’s sole untouchable as they fielded trade offers on the likes of Garrett, Luzardo, and Cabrera during the offseason.
The rotation injuries have been a major blow to a Marlins club that is looking to build upon a surprising postseason appearance in 2023. The club’s starting pitchers ranked top ten in the majors last year in ERA, FIP, and fWAR while striking out the fourth-most batters in all of baseball. That dominant run prevention apparatus was key to the club’s success last year as the lineup lagged behind, ranking just 20th in the majors with a collective wRC+ of 94. With so many injuries impacting the club’s rotation already this year, the team will need strong performance from the likes of Luis Arraez, Josh Bell, Jake Burger, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. if the club hopes to return to postseason contention in 2024.
Yasiel Puig Signs With Mexican League’s Aguila De Veracruz
Veteran outfielder Yasiel Puig is signing with the Aguila de Veracruz of the Mexican League, as reported by Francys Romero. Puig himself appeared to confirm the news on his personal X account. Puig previously played for the club in 2021.
The 33-year-old is a veteran of seven MLB seasons, six of which came as a member of the Dodgers, and last played in the majors in 2019 while splitting time between Cincinnati and Cleveland. The longtime outfielder slashed .277/.348/.475 in 861 career games in the majors, including a .305/.386/.502 line across the first two seasons of his career. That excellent early-career performance earned Puig, who was a consensus top-100 prospect prior to his big league debut, a second place finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2013, an All Star nod in 2014, and down-ballot votes for the NL MVP award in both seasons.
After that phenomenal start to his career, Puig’s numbers took a turn for the worse, though he remained a quality regular throughout the rest of his time in the majors with a roughly league average .264/.330/.462 slash line over his final five seasons in the big leagues. Most of that production came with the Dodgers, though Puig was traded to the Reds alongside Alex Wood, Matt Kemp, and Kyle Farmer in a seven-player deal with the Reds just before the 2019 season that netted L.A. prospects Josiah Gray and Jeter Downs. After hitting free agency the following winter, Puig appeared to be nearing a deal to join the Braves for the 2020 campaign before a positive test for COVID-19 scuttled that deal and led to him sitting out the shortened season.
Since his last appearance in the majors, Puig has played international ball with stints in the Korea Baseball Organization as well as the Dominican and Venezuelan Winter Leagues in addition to the Mexican League. He’s performed well in those opportunities, slashing .291/.377/.558 in 1,032 combined plate appearances with 44 homers. That includes an impressive 51-game stretch in winter league play this offseason, where he slashed an incredible .330/.426/.607 in 202 trips to the plate.
Despite that strong performance, Puig hasn’t signed with an affiliated club since he first hit MLB free agency following the 2019 season. That apparent lack of interest may be thanks in part to off-the-field issues, which most recently have included allegations of lying to federal investigators during an investigation into an illegal gambling organization. Puig initially pled guilty to the charge in November 2022 before changing his plea to not guilty later that month. While Puig allegedly placed bets on football, basketball, and tennis back in 2019, there have been no indications in the case that he bet on baseball at any point.
Rays Owner Discusses 2024 Payroll, Long-Term Outlook
Even after dealing away right-hander Tyler Glasnow and outfielder Manuel Margot in a cost-cutting deal with the Dodgers back in December, the Rays are set to hit a franchise record in terms of payroll this season. As relayed by Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, principle owner Stuart Sternberg recently spoke regarding the new high-water mark for spending in Tampa and the club’s future payrolls. In his comments, Sternberg indicated that the elevated payroll for 2024 is “going to lead to real losses this year” for the club.
While its impossible to evaluate that statement fully given the lack of publicly available information regarding the Rays’ (and the majority of MLB clubs’) finances, it’s easy to see that the club’s 2024 payroll is well outside of their typical range. RosterResource projects the club for a $99MM payroll in 2024, while Cot’s Baseball Contracts projects Tampa to open the season with a payroll of just under $91MM. Regardless of which figure you take into account, it would be a healthy increase to payroll for a club that opened the 2023 season with a $73MM payroll and has an all-time high of just under $84MM.
Per Sternberg, his willingness to exceed past payroll limits is fueled by the club’s competitive window. It’s easy to see the logic behind that, as the Rays have been among the league’s most competitive clubs in recent years. The club has a cumulative 511-359 record since the start of the 2018 season, good for an excellent .578 winning percentage. Meanwhile, they’ve made the playoffs in five of those six seasons, including a trip to the World Series during the shortened 2020 season.
It doesn’t appear as though the increased payroll is guaranteed to last, however. While Sternberg acknowledged that he wants to keep the team’s success in recent years “rolling… if we can,” he also acknowledged that the club’s competitive window is far from guaranteed.
“We think this is, like, our sort of time, and we don’t know if we’re going to have this opportunity in a year or two,” Sternberg said, as relayed by Topkin, who went on to note that Sternberg suggested that the club could “pull back” payroll in 2025 if the club fails to meet expectations in 2024. That’s a possibility worth considering, as the club resides in a difficult AL East division that also sent the Orioles and Blue Jays to the playoffs last year, not to mention a Yankees club that added the likes of Juan Soto, Alex Verdugo, and Marcus Stroman this winter.
Even so, the Rays are coming off a 99-win campaign and feature a strong core of position players that includes the likes of Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, Randy Arozarena, and Isaac Paredes. The pitching staff is less solid, but nonetheless features the likes of Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale to go along with youngsters like Ryan Pepiot, Shane Baz, and Taj Bradley as well as a strong bullpen led by Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adam, and Phil Maton. If the Rays do end up slashing payroll in the coming years, that could mean parting ways with several key players from the aforementioned group. Eflin, Diaz, Lowe, and Jeffrey Springs are all slated to make more than $10MM in 2025, with Arozarena also presumably due for a raise on his $8.1MM salary for the 2024 season.
Aside from the team’s on-the-field success, Topkin notes that Sternberg has plenty of off-the-field incentives to field a competitive team in the coming years. The team announced plans for a new stadium last fall, which Topkin adds is expected to be voted on by local officials in May. Attendance has also been on the rise for the Rays in recent years; per Sternberg, the attendance boost was “the first time it moved up a nice amount” since the mid-2000’s.