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Rob Manfred Discusses Broadcasting Situation, ABS, Pitcher Health

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MLB commissioner Rob Manfred recently conducted an interview with Michael S. Schmidt of the New York Times where he discussed a variety of topics that have made headlines around the league of late, including the league’s plans for the future of MLB broadcasting, the future of the automated ball-strike system that was tested during Spring Training this year, and the ongoing conversation around the league regarding the rise in pitcher injuries over the past few years.

Regarding the broadcasting situation, Manfred once again acknowledged that any overarching changes to the status quo for broadcasting around the league will likely need to wait until after the 2028 season, when MLB’s national TV deals with FOX and TBS expire. The same was true of ESPN, though both the network and MLB decided to opt out of the final three years of that agreement earlier this year, leaving ESPN to stop broadcasting MLB games following the 2025 campaign. It has long seemed likely that the commissioner’s office has its sights set on a more all-encompassing streaming package that MLB.tv currently offers, and Manfred reiterated his desire to “get out of the business of blackouts” going forward.

None of that is exactly new information, but one thing Manfred did note is that fans in Japan may see a change in how they access MLB games when the league’s broadcasting deals expire after 2028. Manfred suggested to Schmidt that while the league has previously sold its broadcasting rights in Japan to Japanese broadcasting companies, that may no longer be the case in 2029 and beyond. Instead, Manfred suggested that the league’s international broadcasting rights, including those for Japan, could be sold to an international streaming company.

“I think [Japan] is vitally important from a business perspective,” Manfred told Schmidt. “When you can say to a streaming company, “I have the ability to deliver an audience of 25 million people in Japan for a game,” they’re interested.”

That would be a major change in the status quo for fans in Japan but could also result in a substantial windfall for the league, allowing them to leverage the league’s rapidly growing fanbase in Japan financially in a more impactful way. Manfred said as much during the interview, suggesting to Schmidt that the value of those broadcasting rights in the streaming market is “way more significant” than the value the league would be able to extract by continuing to sell to traditional broadcasters in Japan.

It’s against that backdrop of upcoming potential streaming deals, both domestic and international, that the next round of collective bargaining between the league and the MLB Players Association will occur. The current collective bargaining agreement is set to expire in December of 2026, and while that’s still more than 18 months away the possibility of another lockout after one disrupted the 2021-22 offseason during the most recent CBA negotiations has been widely discussed. Just last month, MLBPA chief Tony Clark indicated that the players’ association expects a lockout following the 2025 season, and recent discontent among fans regarding the disparity in spending between the league’s top teams and those at the bottom has teed up a potential fight over the club’s economic system.

The league has frequently pushed for a salary cap over the years, even as the MLBPA has always considered the idea a complete non-starter. While Manfred did not discuss the idea of a cap directly in his interview with Schmidt, he did make clear that he is “cognizant” of and “sympathetic” to fan frustrations regarding the disparity in spending among MLB clubs. He went on to note that teams that are outspent by the top teams can overcome that disparity, as seen in the past successes of smaller-market clubs like the Brewers and Guardians, though he suggested that the perception of inevitability surrounding top spenders like the Dodgers and Mets can impact ticket sales for smaller clubs.

“The outcome result is not perfectly correlated with the spending,” Manfred told Schmidt, “But the fact of the matter is the inability or the constant failure to spend affects the business in a way that’s bad for it.”

Manfred went on to agree “one hundred percent” with Schmidt when asked if the disparity in spending “is a massive problem” that the league needs to address. MLBTR readership clearly agrees, as a poll from MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes back in January found that two-thirds of respondents want a salary cap to be instituted in the next round of CBA negotiations, while just over half of respondents went as far as to suggest they would be willing to lose the entirety of the 2027 campaign if it meant that a salary cap would be put into place.

It should be noted that while a salary cap is the most often discussed way to reduce payroll disparity, it’s far from the only method. Many smaller market clubs do not spend in a way that’s commensurate with the revenue sharing dollars they receive. The MLBPA has filed grievances against the Pirates, Rays, Athletics, and Marlins in the past over just that issue, and the A’s needed to spend aggressively this winter in order to get in line and avoid an additional grievance. The Marlins, meanwhile, are risking a grievances by going into the 2025 season with a projected payroll of just under $70MM according to RosterResource, and that’s a figure that could drop further if a pricey veteran like Sandy Alcantara gets dealt at some point this season.

The possibility of a salary cap won’t be the only thing discussed during this next round of CBA negotiations, however, and Manfred’s comments to Schmidt could give the public a window into some other issues that could be discussed. Expansion has been covered in past agreements and remains something Manfred has an eye toward, as the commissioner told Schmidt that he hopes to have the cities selected by the time his final term as commissioner ends in 2029. Aside from that, a major topic of discussion in recent years has been how to mitigate pitcher injuries. As Manfred noted to Schmidt, the incentives for both players and teams as things stand are for both to pursue velocity and spin rate over effectiveness.

That analytics have shown premium stuff to be extremely valuable cannot be debated, and it’s true that teams have increasingly rewarded players with big strikeout numbers, high velocity, and impressive spin rates that all could correlate with an increased risk of injury. A notable point Manfred made in his interview with Schmidt, however, was that the guaranteed contracts offered in baseball skew player incentives away towards maximizing effectiveness rather than staying healthy.

“From a competitive perspective, it’s absolutely clear to young people that we pay for velocity and spin rate,” Manfred told Schmidt. “…So you get injured and they fix you up and you go right back and you do it again. Under our system, because it’s basically all guaranteed money, you get paid. So the incentives there that apply on the athlete are really misdirected. They actually encourage behavior that increases injuries.”

While Manfred did not outright suggest that the guaranteed nature of free agent contracts in MLB could be up for debate during this next round of CBA negotiations, that the commissioner brought it up when discussing the need to “alter incentives” for players and clubs in order to keep pitchers healthy is very notable. Some sports leagues such as the NFL allow contracts that aren’t fully guaranteed, meaning the club may not necessarily have to pay the player in event of injury, but that’s not the case in MLB and would of course need to be collectively bargained with the MLBPA. Much like a salary cap, that seems very likely to be a nonstarter with the union.

One other notable item that Manfred suggested more directly could be part of the next round of CBA negotiations is the automated ball-strike system. ABS was introduced to big league Spring Training games this year as a challenge system, which was mostly viewed as a success around the league. That’s led to plenty of interest in ABS being adopted in regular season games, and Manfred suggested to Schmidt that its arrival could come as soon as 2026. With that being said, Manfred noted he was “uncertain” of that because the union would have to approve it for the 2026 season and suggested that “it would not be shocking” if the union pushed for the specifics of ABS to be resolved during the next round of CBA negotiations after the 2026 season.

On the topic of ABS, Manfred noted that the Umpires’ union (with which the possible implementation of ABS has already been collectively bargained) actually preferred fully automated ball-strike calls as opposed the challenge system used in Spring Training. Manfred noted that players have expressed a preference for the challenge system, in part to protect players who have made a career out of elite pitch-framing abilities from having their skills devalued. It seems as though the league is satisfied with the compromise of a challenge system given that it’s what was used in Spring Training this year, but if either the players decide they’re against the challenge system or the league decides to push for full ABS that could theoretically become an issue discussed in the upcoming round of CBA negotiations even if the challenge system were to get implemented for the 2026 campaign.

Victor Robles Carted Off Field With Shoulder Injury

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10:47pm: Ari Alexander of KPRC2 reports that Canzone is set to be recalled to the big leagues by the Mariners. That seemingly suggests that Robles is ticketed for the injured list, which Jon Morosi of MLBNetwork reported was likely earlier this evening, though no official move has been made to this point.

6:08pm: Mariners outfielder Victor Robles made an outstanding catch late in today’s game against the Giants, but the moment quickly turned worrisome when Robles crashed into the right field netting in foul territory. As noted by multiple reporters, including Adam Jude of The Seattle Times and Daniel Kramer of MLB.com, Robles exited the game and was carted off the field clutching his left arm. As noted by Jude, manager Dan Wilson told reporters that Robles suffered a shoulder injury and is undergoing initial tests to determine the exact issue.

It’s potentially devastating news for the Mariners, for whom Robles has emerged as a spark plug in all aspects of the game since he was signed by Seattle back in June after being released by the Nationals earlier that year. In 77 games for Seattle the rest of the way, Robles hit a phenomenal .328/.393/.467 with a wRC+ of 154. He also played solid defense across all three outfield spots and went 30-for-31 on the basepaths en route to 3.2 fWAR in just 262 trips to the plate for the Mariners last year. It was such a strong performance that the club signed Robles to a two-year extension that guarantees him $9.75MM and keeps him under team control through the end of the 2027 season thanks to a $9MM team option for a third year.

That 2024 breakout season represented a remarkable comeback for Robles, who was considered the best prospect in the Nationals’ system and among the top prospects in the entire sport as he came up through the minor leagues alongside Juan Soto. Unfortunately, injuries have dogged Robles all throughout his career. He appeared in just 530 games in parts of eight seasons in D.C. due to elbow, ankle, back, and hamstring injuries among other ailments. He’s only had one full season in the majors over the years, his 2019 rookie season with the club, and since then has only reached even 400 plate appearances in a season a single time.

It’s impossible to say with certainty to what extent the injuries led to Robles, who hit a disappointing .236/.311/.356 during his time with the Nationals, to under perform the expectations associated with his top prospect status. Even so, it’s without a doubt that both he and the Mariners were surely hoping his fresh start in Seattle last year would afford him the opportunity to prove himself healthy and effective in the big leagues over an extended period of time. While even an approximate timetable for Robles’s return to action won’t be clear until the Mariners provide more details regarding the nature of his injury, it seems safe to say that Robles will miss at least some time due to the injury.

In terms of options to replace Robles in the lineup, they’re relatively few and far between. Dylan Moore has gotten off to a hot start this year but is currently stepping in for Jorge Polanco at third base while Polanco nurses a sore knee. Dominic Canzone is on the 40-man roster at Triple-A and capable of playing the outfield, or the club could move Luke Raley from first base back into the outfield while giving first base to some combination of Donovan Solano, Austin Shenton, and Tyler Locklear. Regardless of which options they ultimately go with to fill in for Robles while he’s out, an extended absence from the outfielder could be tough for the club to handle given their relatively lackluster depth options on the positional side of things.

NL West Notes: Ohtani, Gomber, Birdsong

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The Dodgers have been taking things slowly with superstar Shohei Ohtani as he prepares for his return to pitching. After just over a month off from regular bullpen sessions, Ohtani resumed throwing last weekend and threw another bullpen session earlier today. As noted by Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register, Ohtani threw 26 pitches, and for the first time this year he included his splitter in the bullpen session. This came after what Plunkett described as a “light” bullpen session on Thursday. While that’s a noticeable ramp-up in activity, it shouldn’t be mistaken for the Dodgers accelerating Ohtani’s timeline back to the big league mound.

According to Plunkett, manager Dave Roberts indicated that the club hopes to replicate something akin to the schedule Ohtani will have when he returns to the big league mound as a starter by having him throw off the mound twice a week: once with a lighter bullpen session on Thursday followed by a full session on Saturday. Despite the superstar now getting back on the mound somewhat regularly, Plunkett notes that there’s still a long way to go before he’ll be ready to pitch in a big league game for the Dodgers. He relays that, per Roberts, the next step for Ohtani would be to incorporate his entire arsenal into his bullpen sessions rather than exclusively fastballs and an occasional splitter.

It won’t be until Ohtani is using his full arsenal that facing live hitters in simulated games, which the Dodgers plan to use in lieu of a rehab assignment to get Ohtani up to game speed while still allowing him to continue serving as their everyday DH in the lineup, is on the table. He’ll surely need several of those outings before he’s ready to get into games, and Plunkett suggests that at this point a realistic timeline for Ohtani’s pitching debut with the Dodgers would be sometime in June “at the earliest.” In the meantime, the Dodgers are utilizing a rotation of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Roki Sasaki, and Dustin May. Both Clayton Kershaw and Tony Gonsolin could also return from the injured list before Ohtani is ready to pitch, giving the Dodgers a host of potential options for the rotation.

More from around the NL West…

  • Rockies southpaw Austin Gomber began the season on the injured list due to soreness in his left shoulder, and while he was sent out for a rehab assignment just after Opening Day with an eye towards returning after just the first couple of weeks of the season, he was scratched from his next rehab start due to shoulder inflammation. That paved the way for Colorado to promote Chase Dollander to the big leagues, and Thomas Harding of MLB.com spoke to Gomber in more detail about the situation today. According to Harding, Gomber wasn’t able to pitch at maximum effectiveness during his rehab start even after receiving an anti-inflammatory injection in his shoulder. As a result, Gomber noted that the plan now is for him to have a slower and “more traditional” rehab process. He won’t throw for another week while the inflammation calms down, and will likely not return to the mound for another two or three weeks after that.
  • While the Giants initially planned to use young right-hander Hayden Birdsong as a long reliever and piggyback starter after he lost out on the fifth starter job to Landen Roupp, it appears that may no longer be in the cards. As noted by Justice delos Santos of Mercury News, manager Bob Melvin told reporters today that the club is now treating Birdsong as a “true reliever” after his limited usage to begin the season. Birdsong has appeared just once in the Giants’ first week of games, making a two-inning appearance that saw him throw just 27 pitches.  With Birdsong no longer stretched out as a starter for the time being, Melvin suggested that a one-inning appearance for the righty could be on the table. Birdsong pitched exclusively as a starter in the majors last year, with a 4.75 ERA in 16 starts, and hadn’t made a relief appearance in the major or minor leagues at the Double-A level or higher at any point in his career prior to his 2025 debut.

Braves Notes: Strider, Murphy, Allen

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It’s been a tough start to the season for the Braves, who only won their first game of the season last night. On top of their struggles in the standings, the lineup lost Jurickson Profar when he was hit with an 80-game suspension for a positive PED test while the rotation will be without right-hander Reynaldo Lopez for the foreseeable future as the hurler is scheduled to undergo shoulder surgery. Brutal as the start of the season has been for fans in Atlanta, however, there is light at the end of the tunnel. MLB.com notes not only that right-hander Spencer Strider is scheduled to make a rehab start at Triple-A this coming Thursday, but that it could be his final outing before he returns to the majors.

A healthy and effective return to the big league rotation would be a game changer for the Braves, particularly after Lopez’s recent injury. While reigning AL Cy Young award winner Chris Sale and young righty Spencer Schwellenbach are both excellent starters, beyond that duo the club is currently relying on converted reliever Grant Holmes and a pair of youngsters with hit-or-miss track records as big leaguers in AJ Smith-Shawver and Bryce Elder. A more established pitcher would be very welcome, and Strider is more than simply established after he finished as the runner-up in NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2022 before earning an All-Star appearance and a fourth-place finish in NL Cy Young award voting the following season.

Strider’s career 3.47 ERA is merely above-average (123 ERA+), but it belies his otherworldly 36.9% strikeout rate and 2.56 FIP, both of which place him among the very best pitchers in the entire sport. It would be unreasonable to assume that Strider will be able to provide that peak production this year given the number of players who have struggled while shaking off the rust of a long layoff. Nonetheless, even a somewhat diminished Strider is likely a front-of-the-rotation caliber, and the hurler’s 46.7% strikeout rate and 1.08 ERA through two rehab outings certainly don’t reveal any obvious signs of rust.

Strider isn’t the only notable player who could be returning to the roster soon for Atlanta. Catcher Sean Murphy is scheduled to make a nine-inning rehab appearance at Triple-A tomorrow. According to Bowman, that could be his final rehab outing if all goes well, with Murphy returning to the Atlanta lineup on Tuesday against the Phillies. It would be a huge boost to the Braves if Murphy were able to return so quickly after suffering a fractured rib last month. While his 2024 season was derailed by injury and saw him struggle when healthy enough to take the field, Murphy is not far removed from being considered the game’s best catcher and would be a huge boost to a struggling Atlanta lineup if he were to hit to even his career .233/.329/.429 slash line, to say nothing of the star-level offense he posted during the 2022 and ’23 seasons.

The return of Murphy to the lineup will likely spell the end of top catching prospect Drake Baldwin’s first stint in the big leagues, as he’s gone just 2-for-22 with three walks and five strikeouts through six games in the majors. While that’s not a sample size worth drawing any conclusions from, it would hardly be a shock if the club decided Baldwin was best served getting regular at-bats at Triple-A and opted to use Chadwick Tromp as their backup catcher going forward. With that being said, the club did recently add catcher Jason Delay to their 40-man roster in a trade with the Pirates and could therefore designate Tromp for assignment and still have a third catcher in the fold even if he were to depart via waivers or free agency. That could at least leave the door cracked open for Baldwin to backup Murphy in a larger role similar to the one Travis d’Arnaud held last year.

In other Braves news, The Athletic’s David O’Brien recently suggested that there could be a shakeup at shortstop coming down the pipeline for the club. Nick Allen was initially acquired to serve as a bench bat, but he’s hit a solid .333/.375/.400 so far while playing strong defense to this early point in the regular season. That strong early showing in conjunction with a lackluster spring from Orlando Arcia and his dreadful (2-for-13 with five strikeouts) start to the season could create an opening for Allen to seize a larger role with the club, particularly if the club’s early season struggles continue for longer than the season’s first week.

Red Sox Notes: Crawford, Rotation, Campbell

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The Red Sox opened the season with something of a patchwork rotation after the club lost three of its regular starters to the injured list to open the season. While Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito are both working their way back to the majors on rehab assignments, with Bello in particular scheduled to make his second of what MassLive’s Christopher Smith suggests could be three total rehab starts tomorrow, righty Kutter Crawford appears to be well behind the other two as MassLive’s Chris Cotillo writes that Crawford has not yet advanced to facing live hitters.

That both Bello and Giolito (who Smith notes is slated to start for Triple-A on Tuesday) are scheduled to make their second rehab starts this week is encouraging. The righties have both long been expected to rejoin the rotation at some point this month, and while Giolito’s exact timetable is still not yet fully clear the fact that Bello could return to the rotation after just three rehab outings means he could be back on the mound in Boston as soon as April 16 against the Rays in Tampa, assuming he maintains a schedule of regular rest and suffers no additional setbacks. Right-hander Richard Fitts and southpaw Sean Newcomb have been filling in at the back of the club’s rotation behind Garrett Crochet, Tanner Houck, and Walker Buehler, but it’s possible the club could opt for a six man rotation when the pitching staff is healthier.

That would potentially open up a path for either Fitts or Newcomb to continue starting for the Red Sox going forward while Crawford works his way back to the mound. Unfortunately, Cotillo suggests that’s still a ways away, writing that May or perhaps even June appear to be the most realistic timeline for the righty’s return to the majors. Crawford, 29, made all 33 of his starts for the Red Sox last year but pitched through knee issues last year that compromised his effectiveness in the second half and lingered into Spring Training. While Crawford told Cotillo that surgery is not currently on the table as a fix for his ailment, even the time he’s spent resting and treating the issue has served more to mitigate the pain rather than solve the problem entirely.

In other Red Sox news, Cotillo writes that club manager Alex Cora has indicated the club’s defensive plans for star prospect Kristian Campbell are changing. The versatile Campbell has split his time between second base and left field to this point in his brief big league career after playing the outfield, second base, third base, and shortstop in the minors. While no drastic changes to his usage are expected, with Campbell still remaining at the keystone on most days, Cora told reporters (including Cotillo) that the plan going forward is for Campbell to slide into center field on days where David Hamilton is in the lineup at second base.

Previously, Campbell had taken over left field with Jarren Duran shifting over to center on those days. The change comes as a result of Campbell’s comfort in center, where more than 80% of his minor league innings on the outfield grass have occurred, as well as Duran’s ability to handle the unusual left field situation in Fenway Park, which requires fielders to play balls off of the iconic Green Monster that tend to ricochet at atypical angles. Campbell has so far played just one game in left this year, but the amount of time he spends on the grass appears likely to be impacted primarily by the performance of Rafaela and Hamilton in the early days of the season and potentially the eventual call-ups of his fellow top prospects. If top infield prospect Marcelo Mayer makes it to the majors first, that would surely increase Campbell’s time spent in the outfield, while he’d likely spend even more of his time on the dirt if Mayer is beaten to the big leagues by top outfield prospect Roman Anthony.

Mariners Designate Cody Bolton For Assignment

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The Mariners announced this afternoon that they’ve designated right-hander Cody Bolton for assignment. Bolton’s 40-man roster spot will go to right-hander Jesse Hahn, whose contract has been selected from the minors. Left-hander Tayler Saucedo was optioned to Triple-A to make room for Hahn’s addition to the active roster.

Bolton, 27 in June, was a sixth-round pick by the Pirates back in 2017 and made his big league debut with Pittsburgh in 2023. That first stint in the majors did not go especially well, as the righty posted a lackluster 6.33 ERA (72 ERA+) with a 20.6% strikeout rate against a hefty 14% walk rate in 21 1/3 innings of work. While he pitched better at Triple-A Indianapolis, with a 3.86 ERA and a more reasonable 9.2% walk rate, that still wasn’t to convince the club to keep Bolton on their 40-man roster throughout the winter; in early November, the club traded Bolton to the Mariners in a cash deal.

Bolton’s time in Seattle went better than his time in Pittsburgh, but still left something to be desired. The right-hander pitched impressively for the Mariners at Triple-A Tacoma, with a 3.07 ERA in 29 1/3 innings of work that’s made all the more impressive by the inflated offensive environment of the Pacific Coast League. Strong as that work was, however, the righty still posted a below-average 4.34 ERA (85 ERA+) with a 20.5% strikeout rate and a 10.8% walk rate that were largely reminiscent of his time with the Pirates. While Bolton stuck with the Mariners on the 40-man roster throughout this past offseason, a rough start to the 2025 campaign at Triple-A where he’s surrendered three runs in two innings of work was evidently enough for Seattle to pull the plug. The club will now have one week to either trade Bolton or attempt to pass him through waivers. Should he clear waivers successfully, the Mariners can outright him to the minor leagues as a non-roster depth option going forward.

The departure of Bolton makes room for Hahn, whose debut with the Mariners will be his first MLB appearance since 2021. A sixth-rounder drafted by the Rays back in 2010, the 35-year-old hurler made his debut with the Padres back in 2014 and enjoyed an impressive rookie campaign where he posted a 3.07 ERA in 73 1/3 innings spread between 12 starts and a pair of relief appearances. His 10.5% walk rate was a bit elevated, but he largely made up for it with a strong 22.9% strikeout rate to post solid results in line with those expected of a #4 starter.

Hahn was included by the Padres in an offseason trade with the A’s that sent catcher Derek Norris to San Diego, and his first year in Oakland saw the righty continue to fill the role of a potential mid-rotation arm with a 3.35 ERA and 3.51 FIP in 16 starts. Unfortunately, much of Hahn’s 2015 season was wiped out by a flexor tendon injury, and when he came back to the mound in 2016 he no longer looked like the same pitcher. The righty posted a lackluster 5.59 ERA in 116 innings of work for the A’s over the next two seasons before being traded once again, this time to the Royals in a trade that brought back reliever Ryan Buchter.

Hahn did not appear in the majors for the Royals until 2019 due to a UCL injury that eventually required surgery, and when he came back late in the 2019 season it was as a reliever. The right-hander ultimately made just 29 appearances for the Royals over parts of three seasons, with a 4.62 ERA (105 ERA+) and a 4.81 FIP in 25 1/3 innings of work. Hahn hit the injured list due to shoulder issues back in 2021 and didn’t pitch again professionally at any level until 2024, when he latched on with the Dodgers on a minor league deal. He’s thrown 51 1/3 solid innings for the Dodgers and Mariners at Triple-A since then, and now appears poised to make his comeback to the majors. He was released from his minor league deal with Seattle just a couple of weeks ago ahead of Opening Day, but evidently re-signed with the club on a fresh minor league deal since then.

Making room for Hahn on the active roster is Saucedo, who served as a solid middle relief option for Seattle in each of the past two seasons with a 3.54 ERA and 3.79 FIP in 86 1/3 innings of work across 105 outings. Things have not gone well for the southpaw so far this year, however, with four runs allowed and more walks than strikeouts in his first three appearances. He’ll head to Tacoma to serve as optionable depth for the Mariners for the time being as he awaits his next big league opportunity.

Poll: Do Season-Opening Streaks Carry Extra Weight?

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MLB’s regular season is officially underway, and clubs are already in the thick of the race to the postseason. One of the biggest storylines of the season so far has surrounded three teams that have gone streaking to open the year. The Dodgers (8-0) and Padres (7-0) have both yet to lose a game, while the Braves (0-7) have yet to win after opening the season against those two clubs. Those streaks have led to all three clubs getting plenty of attention, particularly the Dodgers as they became the first team in MLB history to follow up a World Series championship by starting the next season with eight straight wins.

Perhaps even more focus has been placed on Atlanta, however, as the club was widely expected entering the season to be a top contender for not only the NL East, but also the World Series this year. Though the club finished second to the Phillies in a recent MLBTR poll about who would win the division this year, Atlanta received 32% of the vote, nearly double the third-place Mets’ 18% figure. The playoff odds at Fangraphs told an even rosier story, as the club was given a 93.2% chance to make the playoffs prior to the season beginning, as well as a 63.7% chance at winning the division and a 15.7% chance at a World Series championship that was second only to the Dodgers themselves.

The club’s 0-7 start has caused those odds to plummet, however, as Fangraphs now affords the Braves just a 70.5% chance at making the postseason, with a 32.6% chance at winning the division and a 9.1% chance to win the World Series. It’s a steep drop for just one week of games, and by contrast the Padres have seen their projected fortunes improve just as much, going from a 30.6% chance to make the postseason heading into Opening Day all the way up to a 54.4% chance entering play today. Even the pessimistic playoff odds the Braves are facing don’t hold a candle to the perception of many fans and media members, however. Much has been made of the fact that no team in baseball history has recovered from a 0-7 start to make the postseason, and that the 1980 Braves (81-80) and 1983 Astros (85-77) are the only clubs to even finish with a winning record.

With that being said, however, it must be noted that this only applies to teams that began the season with a 0-7 record. Plenty of teams have made the playoffs with seven-game losing streaks on their resumes, particularly in recent years as the postseason has begun to expand. Just last year, the Royals made the playoffs with two separate seven-game losing streaks to their names. The 2017 Dodgers infamously suffered a 1-16 stretch that included an 11-game losing streak before turning things around and making it to Game Seven of the World Series.

Of course, that’s not to say all of the sentiments surrounding these clubs are built on the biases that could surround a small-sample performance. The Dodgers were viewed around the league as the best team in baseball well before the 2025 season began, not only because they won the World Series last year but also because they aggressively improved the club by adding Blake Snell, Tanner Scott, and Roki Sasaki (among others) this winter. Meanwhile, concerns about Atlanta’s path into the postseason this year could be argued to have just as much to do with a deep group of potential playoff teams in the NL, the PED suspension of Jurickson Profar, and shoulder surgery for Reynaldo Lopez as they do the team’s actual record on the field.

It also can’t be entirely dismissed that some streaks have more impact on a club’s future competitiveness than others. Naturally, large swings in the standings are more likely to have a relative impact in the first half of the year than the second half, as they can factor into the decisions club executives make over the summer regarding whether to buy or sell at the trade deadline. That impacts the overall talent level of a club in a way that streaks such as the aforementioned strings of losses suffered by the 2017 Dodgers and 2024 Royals, all of which occurred after that season’s deadline, simply cannot replicate.

Where do MLBTR readers fall on this topic? Are the strings of wins the Dodgers and Padres are presently enjoying and the string of losses in Atlanta more meaningful than they would be if they occurred later in the season instead? Or does the fact that every game counts the same in the standings at the end of the season mean it’s no different than any other streak? Have your say in the poll below:

The Opener: Mariners, Henderson, Minor Leagues

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As the 2025 regular season continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Mariners 40-man move incoming:

The Mariners are reportedly poised to select the contract Luis F. Castillo today, who will start today’s game against the Giants and Justin Verlander after teammate and veteran righty Luis Castillo started the club’s last game on Wednesday. In order to make way for that quirky bit of trivia, Seattle will need to clear a 40-man roster spot. With no obvious candidates for the 60-day injured list on the roster, the Mariners will likely need to designate one of their players for assignment, at which point they’ll have one week to either trade that player or successfully pass them through waivers.

2. Henderson likely to be activated:

Gunnar Henderson opened the season on the injured list, but manager Brandon Hyde told reporters (including Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner) that it’s “probable” the star infielder will be activated from the injured list to start the club’s series opener against the Royals in Kansas City, for which Baltimore will be facing veteran right-hander Seth Lugo coming off his dominant 2024 season where he finished as the runner up to Tarik Skubal in AL Cy Young award voting. The Orioles have gotten off to a difficult 3-4 start to this point in the season, but the return of Henderson after a year where he broke out to the tune of a .281/.364/.529 slash line and finished fourth in AL MVP voting should go a long way to improving the club’s offense. The return of Henderson figures to kick Jackson Holliday off shortstop back to second base, with Jordan Westburg returning to third base after covering the keystone and Ramon Urias heading for the bench.

3. Minor League Opening Day:

While the major leagues had their Opening Day last week and Triple-A followed suit shortly there after, the rest of minor league baseball has not yet began their seasons. That changes today with the arrival of Opening Day for Double-A, High-A, and Single-A affiliates all around baseball. The earliest of those games is a game between the Double-A affiliates of the Orioles and Pirates, the Chesapeake Baysox and the Altoona Curve. That game begins at 5pm CT this evening, though of course all three levels have 15 games scheduled to run throughout the evening. Prospect hounds will get their first opportunities to catch glimpses of the 51 of MLB.com’s Top 100 prospects who are currently in the lower full-season levels of the minors, including top-ten talents like Twins outfield prospect Walker Jenkins, Tigers outfield prospect Max Clark, and Guardians second base prospect Travis Bazzana.

Poll: Who Will Win The AL East?

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Opening Day has finally arrived, and teams all around the league are gearing up for another pennant chase in hopes of being crowned this year’s World Series champion. Of course, there’s still another seven months to go before someone raises the Commissioner’s Trophy. Until the playoffs begin, teams will be focused on a smaller goal: winning their division. We have been conducting a series of polls to gauge who MLBTR readers believe is the favorite in each division. That series has already covered the National League, with the Dodgers, Cubs, and Phillies each coming out on top in their respective divisions. In the American League, meanwhile, the Rangers and Tigers have been voted as the favorites to win their respective divisions. The final division left to cover in this series is the AL East. Teams are listed in order of their 2024 record.

New York Yankees (94-68)

The reigning league champion can never be counted out as a contender for their division, and that’s certainly true when it comes to a franchise with as strong of a history as the Yankees. With that being said, it’s difficult to argue the club is better on paper today than it was a year ago. 2024’s club was largely built around the presence of three superstars: Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and Gerrit Cole. While Judge is still crushing baseballs in the Bronx as reliably as ever, Soto departed for Queens on a massive $765MM pact over the winter while Cole underwent Tommy John surgery last month and will miss the entire 2025 season. The losses of Soto and Cole are a major blow to the club’s lineup and rotation, and the latter has been further dented by injuries suffered by Clarke Schmidt and Luis Gil while the former is exacerbated by the absence of Giancarlo Stanton.

That’s not to say the club has no reasons for optimism, however. All of Stanton, Gil, and Schmidt could return at some point during the first half, with Schmidt in particular likely to be back in the rotation later this month. The addition of star southpaw Max Fried offers the club a suitable stand-in ace for Cole this season even after a somewhat middling debut in pinstripes, while an offensive nucleus of Judge, Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. should score plenty of runs even without Soto, especially if Goldschmidt can turn back the clock during his age-37 season. That’s before even mentioning their elite bullpen, which was top three in the AL last year even before this winter’s upgrade from Clay Holmes to Devin Williams in the ninth inning. Even with the loss of Soto and their many early season injuries, the Yankees cannot be ruled out to repeat at the top of the division.

Baltimore Orioles (91-71)

After a second consecutive playoff appearance with zero wins to show for it, some fans in Baltimore are starting to get antsy. New owner David Rubenstein’s first offseason at the helm of the club came with big expectations that the club would step away from the frugality of recent years and commit more strongly to contention, and in some ways that did happen. The club replaced Anthony Santander’s power in the lineup by bringing in Tyler O’Neill on the first multi-year guarantee the club has made since Mike Elias took over baseball operations, and went about upgrading an already-strong offense in other ways by bringing in Gary Sanchez and Ramon Laureano. Considering the Orioles already have a phenomenal offensive nucleus built around players like Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Jordan Westburg, and Colton Cowser, those upgrades should give them among the most fearsome lineups in the sport.

That aggressiveness in bolstering the offense was not matched on the pitching side of things, however. Staff ace Corbin Burnes was allowed to depart for Arizona, and his replacements in the rotation are a pair of aging veterans in Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano. While both are decorated pitchers who could offer strong mid-rotation production, the loss of Burnes puts a great deal of pressure on Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez (the latter of whom is currently on the injured list) to perform in front-of-the-rotation roles. The possible return of Kyle Bradish later this season from UCL surgery should help things, but even that would come with question marks due to a year-long layoff. The bullpen is in better shape, fortunately, with closer Felix Bautista back from his own UCL surgery and Yennier Cano, Gregory Soto, and Seranthony Dominguez among the other late inning options. If the club’s rotation can hold up and avoid further injuries, the Orioles should have as good of a shot as anyone at the AL East crown this year.

Boston Red Sox (81-81)

The AL East club with by far the biggest offseason, the Red Sox made significant splashes this winter when they traded for (and, more recently, extended) ace southpaw Garrett Crochet before bringing in third baseman Alex Bregman on a three-year, opt-out laden deal. Both of those moves are likely to transform last year’s middling club into true contenders, giving Boston an ace-caliber arm ahead of homegrown mid-rotation pieces like Tanner Houck and Brayan Bello (not to mention offseason signing Walker Buehler) while allowing them to kick Rafael Devers’s lackluster glove off of third base and into a DH role. Those additions build on a solid group of talent already in place, with players like Devers, Triston Casas, and Jarren Duran standing as likely offensive contributors.

Perhaps even more important than this winter’s additions, however, is the impending arrival of the club’s top prospects. Kristian Campbell is already in the majors and emerging as a potential early favorite for the AL Rookie of the Year award, with fellow top prospects Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer also expected to make their big league debuts at some point this year. All three are consensus top-15 prospects in the sport, with Anthony in particular being rated as the sport’s #1 prospect by a number of services. That sort of high-end prospect talent all arriving in the majors simultaneously is quite rare, and affords the club an exceptionally deep positional mix with plenty of potential impact. With that being said, the club does have one potential Achilles’ heel in the bullpen. After relying on an elite tandem of Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin to close out games last year, the Red Sox are now banking on a strong return from nearly two years away from the mound for Liam Hendriks and a resurgence from Aroldis Chapman in the late innings. If the club’s strong offense and solid rotation can overcome that questionable bullpen, however, they should be in strong position to return to the top of the AL East.

Tampa Bay Rays (80-82)

After suffering their first losing season in recent memory and selling at the trade deadline last year, the Rays avoided their annual winter of sell-side trades (the Jeffrey Springs deal notwithstanding) and actually made a handful of modest but potentially impactful additions this winter. Arguably the club’s two biggest weaknesses last season were catcher and shortstop, so the additions of Danny Jansen and Ha-Seong Kim figure to go a long way to bring up the floor for the club as they try to get back on track. Jansen and Kim (when the latter returns from the IL) figure to be joined this year by the Rays’ usual suspects on offense with Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, and trendy breakout pick Junior Caminero set to serve as anchors of the lineup. Outside of those names, however, the Rays are likely to need big performances from less established pieces like Christopher Morel and Jonathan Aranda in order to make noise in a crowded AL East.

Fortunately, whatever questions the Rays face on offense are largely avoided on the pitching side of things. The temporary loss of ace Shane McClanahan to open the season hurts the rotation, but the club still features a bevy of solid arms that includes Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Pepiot, Taj Bradley, Zack Littell, and Shane Baz. Each of those arms have the upside of at least a #4 starter, and Rasmussen in particular has flashed the sort of production that could front a rotation over the years. In the bullpen, meanwhile, the club will once again rely on Pete Fairbanks in the ninth inning with a group of interesting arms including Edwin Uceta and Hunter Bigge also in their bullpen mix. If the club’s offense can get going, it’s not hard to imagine that pitching talent carrying the Rays back into the playoffs this year.

Toronto Blue Jays (74-88)

The Blue Jays failed in their offseason bid for Juan Soto, and similarly have seemingly come up short in their efforts to extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ahead of his final season of club control. That puts plenty of pressure on the Jays to return from the basement of the AL East and compete in what could be their superstar’s last season in town, and Toronto brass answered that pressure by bringing in some notable reinforcements this winter. Anthony Santander offers the sort of big bat to protect Guerrero in the lineup that the Jays lacked last year, Andres Gimenez should greatly improve the club’s defense, Jeff Hoffman looks like a strong replacement for Jordan Romano in the ninth inning, and Max Scherzer (when he returns from the IL) should offer quality innings to a rotation that lost Yusei Kikuchi last summer.

Even with solid additions like those, however, a lot needs to go right for the Jays if they’re going to get to the top of the AL East this year. Perhaps the most important would be a return to form for Bo Bichette, who endured the worst season of his career last year. A lineup featuring Bichette at his best alongside Guerrero and Santander would go a long way to making this club look like a playoff team, as would a resurgence from veteran righty Kevin Gausman, who took a step back from his previous ace-level seasons with the Blue Jays last year. A strong year on offense from franchise catcher Alejandro Kirk and a repeat of Bowden Francis’s excellent rookie campaign could also serve as X-factors that help the club stay competitive this year.

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With all five clubs making a legitimate effort to compete this year, who will come out on top? Will the Yankees reign supreme once again despite their losses, or will they be successfully challenged by the young, up-and-coming Orioles despite a middling rotation? Can the Red Sox ride their splashy signings and top prospects to the postseason, or will a team like the Rays or even the Blue Jays surprise? Have your say in the poll below:

Mets Sign Jon Singleton, Niko Goodrum To Minor League Deals

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April 3: Per Robert Murray of FanSided, Marte’s deal is a two-year pact. That could suggest that he’s unlikely to pitch much in 2025 as he recovers from his shoulder surgery.

April 2: The Mets announced today that they’ve signed first baseman Jon Singleton and infielder Niko Goodrum to minor league deals. Additionally, the club has signed right-hander Jose Marte to a minor league deal according to the transactions tracker on Marte’s MLB.com profile page.

Singleton, 33, served as the Astros regular first baseman last year after the club parted ways with Jose Abreu early in the 2024 season. Drafted in the eighth round of the 2009 draft by the Phillies, Singleton was shipped to Houston in the Hunter Pence trade and eventually became a consensus top-30 prospect in the sport with the Astros. The club signed Singleton to a pre-debut extension that guaranteed him $10MM over five years during his debut season back in 2014. The deal was viewed as a coup for the Astros at the time, but Singleton unfortunately hit just .171/.290/.331 over two seasons with the Astros before toiling in the minor leagues for a few years and eventually being released in 2018.

At first, it seemed likely that Singleton’s release marked the end of his baseball career. However, the first baseman resurfaced during his age-29 season with a strong showing in the Mexican League and got enough attention that he signed with the Brewers on a minor league deal for the 2022 season. He hit reasonably well at Triple-A for the club and posted even stronger numbers the following season, earning him a call-up back to the majors. He hit just .103/.188/.138 in 11 games for the Brewers, but upon being released signed with the Astros and hit a more respectable (though still subpar) .194/.301/.324 in 25 games for the club.

That performance was enough to earn Singleton his aforementioned shot at the regular first base job in 2024, and he actually started to hit for the first time in his career last year when given that opportunity. In 405 trips to the plate across 119 games, Singleton slashed .234/.321/.386. That slightly better than league average production was enough to convince the Astros to keep Singleton on the roster throughout the offseason, though not enough to stop them from signing Christian Walker to take over regular first base duties. When Singleton hit just .171/.239/.195 in Spring Training, however, Houston had seen enough and decided to cut bait.

Goodrum, meanwhile, has been part of seven MLB seasons so far in his career. The Twins’ second-rounder back in 2010, he made his big league debut in Minnesota back in 2017 but was cut from the club’s roster and ended up signing with the Tigers on a minor league deal that offseason. He went on to put up solid numbers with Detroit over the next four seasons, hitting hit a decent .232/.306/.401 (90 wRC+) in 376 games from 2018 to 2021. His production tapered off in 2020 and 2021, however, as he hit just .203/.282/.350 (75 wRC+) in those final two years in Detroit before he was outrighted off the Tigers’ roster.

In the years since leaving Detroit, Goodrum has appeared in just 28 total MLB games, hitting a paltry .111/.169/.139 in 78 plate appearances between the Astros, Rays, and Angels. When not in the majors, he’s bounced between the Red Sox, Pirates, Orioles, and Padres organizations and even had a brief stint in the KBO league where he slashed .295/.373/.387 in 50 games for the Lotte Giants. San Diego was Goodrum’s most recent stop, and the 33-year-old actually hit quite well in Spring Training as he slashed .278/.519/.444 in 14 games. That solid showing wasn’t enough to earn a roster spot with the Padres, however, and Goodrum returned to free agency where he’s now caught on with the Mets.

As for Marte, the right-hander signed with the Giants out of the Dominican Republic as an amateur and made his pro debut back in 2016. He was traded to the Angels in the deal that sent southpaw Tony Watson to San Francisco a couple of years later, however, and eventually went on to make his big league debut with Anaheim during the 2021 season. Marte was shuttled between Triple-A and the majors over the next four seasons, and his results from 2021 to 2023 were nothing short of disastrous as he posted an 8.14 ERA and 7.61 FIP in 24 1/3 innings of work with more walks (28) than strikeouts (27).

Things seemed to click for Marte in 2024, however, as he pitched to a 2.22 ERA in 28 1/3 innings in the inflated offensive environment of the Pacific Coast League while striking out 28.4% of opponents and walking a more manageable 11.2%. That success translated to the big leagues, as he posted a 2.33 ERA in 19 1/3 innings, though he only struck out 17.5% of his opponents while walking 12.5%. His season was cut short by a viral infection and shoulder surgery, however, and he found himself outrighted off the Angels’ 40-man roster at the end of the year.

With all three now set to join the Mets at Triple-A, each figures to fill a depth role for the club going forward. Singleton is locked behind Pete Alonso and Jesse Winker on the first base/DH depth chart, but it wouldn’t be a shock to see him be the next man up behind Winker as a left-handed part-time option in the case of injury. Goodrum, meanwhile, is a versatile bench piece who can play virtually anywhere on the diamond except for catcher. That’s a particularly useful skillset for the Mets while the versatile Jeff McNeil is on the injured list. As for Marte, it’s unclear whether the righty is recovered from shoulder surgery at this point, but when he returns he could be an interesting, high-upside bullpen option for the Mets at some point this year.

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