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Poll: Kyle Tucker’s Earning Power

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The biggest news from the baseball world of late is Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s $500MM extension with the Blue Jays, which will keep him in Toronto through the end of the 2039 season. Guerrero and Kyle Tucker were widely viewed as the top free agents of the coming offseason. Now that Guerrero is off the board, the top of the mountain belongs to Tucker, the superstar outfielder who the Cubs gave up a massive package (All-Star infielder Isaac Paredes, young starter Hayden Wesneski, and first-rounder Cam Smith) to acquire ahead of his final year of team control.

Tucker’s certainly validated that belief in him as an impact player during the early going this season. A career .276/.356/.520 hitter, he’s taken his game to an even higher level recently. Tucker emerged as an early-season MVP candidate last year before being limited to just 78 games by a fractured shin, but even in his last 250 games dating back to 2023, the 28-year-old is hitting .288/.387/.548 with a wRC+ of 157. That’s the fifth-highest figure among all hitters with at least 1,000 plate appearances during that time, trailing only Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, and former teammate Yordan Alvarez.

That lofty company, combined with the huge expectations created by $700MM+ deals for the top-rated free agent in back-to-back offseasons, created plenty of intrigue about where Guerrero’s contract could end up prior to his extension with the Jays. His $500MM deal falls short of that $700MM mark both Ohtani and Soto reached, although Ohtani’s deal includes massive amounts of deferred money that make it lower than Guerrero’s pact in terms of net present value. Questions remain, however, about how Tucker’s own eventual deal will compare to those names. Notably, Tucker doesn’t have the sort of standout carrying tool that other top stars have. He’s not a threat to hit 60 homers like Judge, lacks Soto’s otherworldly strike zone recognition, and certainly isn’t the sort of once-in-a-century athlete Ohtani has proved himself to be.

With all that being said, however, Tucker gets to that elite tier of production by being well above average at just about everything. Among hitters with at least 1000 plate appearances over the past three seasons, Tucker’s barrel rate (11.7%) is top-30 in the majors, and his isolated slugging percentage is seventh best. He combined that excellent power with similarly excellent plate discipline; his 14.1% strikeout rate is the eleventh-lowest, while his 13.8% walk rate is fourth behind Judge, Soto, and Kyle Schwarber. While Soto remains the only player to walk more often than he strikes out, the 0.3% difference between Tucker’s strikeout and walk rates is the smallest among the rest of the league.

Tucker’s talent in the batters’ box is further augmented by strong work in other areas of the game. He’s a well-regarded defender in right field who won the AL’s Gold Glove award at the position in 2019, and while he’s not shown an ability to play a premium position like center field, it seems unlikely that he’ll need to make a move down the defensive spectrum to DH or first base any time soon. He’s also proved to be a solid contributor on the bases. Despite middling foot speed, Tucker has managed to log 91 steals in 102 attempts since the start of the 2020 season. That’s good for a phenomenal 89.2% success rate, and includes 25- and 30-steal efforts during the 2022 and ’23 campaigns. Tucker was well on his way to another 20+ steal season in 2024 before being sidelined by injury, and with three bags swiped in just 15 games this year it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him steal more than his fair share of extra bases this season as well.

Given Tucker’s all-around impressive skill set, it’s not hard to see why teams will be clamoring to bring him into the fold this winter. There’s even a fairly strong argument to be made that Tucker is a more valuable player than Guerrero, given that their career numbers are relatively similar at the dish and Tucker is a far more valuable player in the field and on the basepaths. With that being said, Tucker’s age could hold him back somewhat relative to the deals landed by Soto and Guerrero. Soto hit free agency ahead of his age-26 season, while Guerrero is currently in the midst of his own age-26 campaign. Tucker, who turned 28 in January, is two years older than Guerrero and will be marketing himself three years older than Soto was this past offseason.

It’s possible that could keep him below that half-billion dollar threshold that only Guerrero and Soto have managed to reach by measure of net present value, but he could still be in for a massive payday. After all, Judge landed $360MM over nine years in free agency when marketing his age-31 season, while Ohtani was roughly the same age as Tucker when he landed his contract, which has a net present value of just under $461MM for luxury tax purposes. Marquee Sports Network’s Lance Brozdowski reported on his Cubs Daily Podcast earlier this week that a person from Tucker’s agency, Excel Sports Management, suggested an estimate of $475MM over ten years for Tucker’s eventual contract. That figure obviously comes with caveats aplenty given that the source is Tucker’s own agency and he’s just 15 games into his platform season, but that number would top both Judge and Ohtani’s contracts in terms of NPV.

How do MLBTR readers believe Tucker’s contract situation will play out? Will he be able to crack the $500MM threshold that only Soto and Guerrero have crossed so far? Have your say in the poll below:

The Opener: Steele, Mariners, Pitching Matchups

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Here are a few things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Steele to undergo MRI:

The Cubs placed southpaw Justin Steele on the injured list yesterday with a diagnosis of left elbow tendinitis. The news was immediately concerning for fans in Chicago given that Steele, who has established himself as a front-of-the-rotation arm with a 3.10 ERA and a 3.14 FIP from 2022 to ’24, has been shelved with elbow issues on multiple other occasions in recent years. Fortunately, each of those stints on the IL ended up being relatively close to the minimum 15 days, and Steele suggested yesterday that he could once again return fairly quickly. Still, the Cubs are scheduled to send Steele for an MRI today to ensure there isn’t a more serious issue at hand, and his timeline for return won’t be certain until those results come in. Veteran swingman Colin Rea and young southpaw Jordan Wicks appear to be the top options to fill in for Steele in the club’s rotation while he’s out of commission, though a plentiful slate of off-days in April means they’ll rarely need a fifth starter this month anyhow.

2. Will the Mariners search for infield help?

The Mariners’ lineup has been compromised with injuries in recent days, with right fielder Victor Robles and second baseman Ryan Bliss both ticketed for extended absences. Luke Raley slid from first base to the outfield to help cover for the loss of Robles, and Dylan Moore is settling in as the club’s third baseman alongside J.P. Crawford at shortstop to keep the left side of the infield relatively settled. The right side of the infield is in complete flux, however, with Jorge Polanco parked at DH as he battles knee soreness.

That leaves first base to a combination of Rowdy Tellez and Donovan Solano, while second base appears poised to be manned by utility men Miles Mastrobuoni and Leo Rivas. Neither Mastrobuoni nor Rivas appear likely to be contributors on offense with career wRC+ marks of 60 and 86 respectively. Tellez and Solano both have track records of success in the majors, by contrast, but Solano is just 2-for-18 with a 33.3% strikeout rate in a part time role this year while Tellez is 1-for-23 after a big spring showing. With the right side of the infield in such dire straits, could the club look for an external addition or perhaps tap into the farm for a different option?

3. Pitchers’ duel in Atlanta:

The Braves and Phillies are wrapping up a three-game set in Atlanta today, which will serve as the rubber match after the Braves took the first game while the Phillies emerged victorious yesterday. On the mound will be Phillies southpaw Jesus Luzardo, who was limited to just 66 2/3 lackluster innings for the Marlins last year by injuries but has looked fantastic in two starts for the Phillies this year (1.50 ERA, 19-to-4 K/BB). Atlanta counters with righty Spencer Schwellenbach. He looked terrific in his rookie season last year, with a 3.35 ERA in 21 starts, and has dominated in both of his starts so far this season with 14 scoreless innings and 14 strikeouts against just one walk. The two impressive hurlers will square off at 7:15pm local time this evening.

4. Priester makes Brewers debut:

The Brewers engineered a rare April trade of consequence to restock and injury-ravaged rotation, shipping prospect Yophery Rodriguez and their Competitive Balance draft pick (No. 33 overall) to the Red Sox in exchange for former top prospect Quinn Priester. The 24-year-old Priester was a first-round pick by the Pirates in 2019 whom MLB.com ranked as a top-100 prospect from 2021-23. His stock took a hit last year, and he was flipped to Boston at the deadline in exchange for infield prospect Nick Yorke (another former first-rounder whose stock had slipped a bit).

Priester has had some big league exposure so far but hasn’t found success in 99 2/3 innings (6.23 ERA). The Brewers have a knack for coaxing new levels out of pitchers, however, evidenced by success stories like Tobias Myers, Trevor Megill and Joel Payamps in Milwaukee. They’ll hope to add Priester’s name to that list. The 6’3″ righty is controllable for another six seasons, making him a potential long-term cog. Brewers fans will get their first look today when Priester takes on Rockies righty Ryan Feltner at Coors Field in Denver.

Poll: Will Bo Bichette Stay In Toronto?

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The big news around baseball this week is superstar slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. sticking in Toronto on a $500MM extension that will keep him with the Blue Jays for the next 14 years. While the deal is primarily notable because of Guerrero himself being one of the brightest young stars in the game whose free agency had long been anticipated by fans around the league, it’s also the most firm statement yet from the Blue Jays that they fully intend to continue attempting to compete even amid an increasingly difficult AL East division.

Entering Spring Training, the club had a number of key players set to come off the books within the next few seasons. That’s still the case for the majority of those players, with important pieces like Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, George Springer, and Daulton Varsho poised to hit the open market within the next two seasons. With that being said, the club’s offseason additions of Andres Gimenez and Anthony Santander combine with their recent extensions for Guerrero and Alejandro Kirk to give the club a talented nucleus of position players to build a new iteration of the club around with pre-arb and early arbitration players like Ernie Clement, Bowden Francis, and Will Wagner helping to further build out that foundation.

With nearly two full seasons until Gausman, Springer, and Varsho depart for free agency, it’s not entirely clear what the Jays’ needs will look like by the time that comes around. Toronto’s impending losses of Bassitt, Scherzer, and Green come November will surely need to be addressed, but most teams need pitching every winter and replacing those players should be fairly straightforward. With Guerrero signed, that leaves the most pertinent question facing Toronto at this point as what to do with shortstop Bo Bichette. The 27-year-old was a consensus top-15 prospect in the sport when he came up to the majors back in 2019 and has spent most of his career paired with Guerrero as one of the club’s two up-and-coming stars.

While Bichette has never had the MVP-caliber campaigns Guerrero posted during the 2021 and ’24 seasons, the hype surrounding him has largely been justified by his body of work in the majors. In 46 games down the stretch in 2019 after a mid-season call-up, Bichette made a big impression by slashing .311/.358/.571 with a 143 wRC+ and 11 homers in just 212 plate appearances. A 29-game stint with Toronto during the shortened 2020 season saw him come down to Earth just a bit as he posted a 120 wRC+, but that level of production proved to be very sustainable for Bichette as his first full three seasons saw him slash .298/.339/.476 with a 125 wRC+ and 13.6 fWAR.

From 2021 to ’23, Bichette was sandwiched between Yordan Alvarez and Sean Murphy on the fWAR leaderboard, good for 22nd in baseball, and his 125 wRC+ allowed him to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with top infielders like Trea Turner and Alex Bregman. Between those strong numbers and his relative youth, Bichette seemed certain to be ticketed for a large payday with the only question being whether it would come in Toronto or elsewhere. Unfortunately, the 2024 season threw all of that completely off the rails. Not only was Bichette limited to just 81 games last year due to multiple calf strains and surgery on his middle finger, but he also struggled badly in the games he was healthy enough to partake in. In 336 trips to the plate last year, Bichette slashed just .225/.277/.322 (71 wRC+).

A look under the hood reveals that Bichette’s strikeout and walk rates were both as good as they’d ever been last year, but he was completely sapped of his power. He hit just four home runs after regularly flashing 25-to-30 homer power in previous years. His .303 xwOBA suggested that he was getting somewhat unlucky in terms of batted ball luck, and that likely contributed to a career-worst .269 BABIP. While a batting average closer to his xBA of .255 would have surely helped his overall production look a bit more robust, the expected numbers aren’t all that kind in the power department. His xSLG was just .375, which while better than his actual production last season, would’ve been well below average if he had enough plate appearances to qualify. That’s in large part thanks to a massive drop-off in barrel rate. Bichette barreled up just 4.4% of his batted balls last year, less than half of his career norm across the rest of his career.

A mediocre defender at shortstop even in his best years, Bichette’s value is so tied to his bat that last season’s struggles made it difficult to imagine him finding the star-level contract in free agency without a big bounceback in the 2025 campaign. Despite both Bichette himself and the Blue Jays as a whole failing to meet expectations last year, Toronto opted not to trade him ahead of his final year under team control, betting on him to regain his form this season. There’s still a long way to go in this season, but the early returns are looking good on that decision. Bichette’s .277/.333/.362 (103 wRC+) slash line entering play today is still pedestrian but nonetheless a big improvement over last year, and more importantly he’s resumed hitting the ball with authority (7.3% barrel rate, 46.3% Hard-Hit rate) in a way that mostly aligns with his career norms.

While it’s certainly good news for both Bichette and the Blue Jays that the shortstop appears to be back to posting quality offensive numbers, what that means for his future is uncertain. There’s some similarities to Cody Bellinger in Bichette’s profile as a free agent, as the two players share All-Star caliber upside as bat-first options at a premium defensive position that could make them very attractive in free agency, but pair that upside with worrisome injury-riddled campaigns where they looked like below-replacement level talents. During the 2023-24 offseason, Bellinger was limited to a short-term deal by the market, though his three-year, $80MM pact with the Cubs afforded him a healthy AAV and multiple opt-out opportunities. Bellinger was marketing his age-28 season that winter just like Bichette would be come November, though a distinct lack of high-end positional talent in free agency this winter (outside of star outfielder Kyle Tucker) could allow Bichette to find a stronger market.

Still, that market uncertainty could be part of why the Jays have not broached the possibility of an extension with their shortstop. Bichette told reporters back in February that the sides hadn’t had talks, and he reiterated to Hazel Mae of Sportsnet yesterday that “nothing’s on the table”  for him from the Blue Jays in terms of an extension. Bichette has made it clear he’d like to remain in Toronto, citing a desire to play for a single organization throughout his entire career and continue his partnership with Guerrero. If Bichette proves himself healthy and effective again this year, that could make plenty of sense for a Blue Jays club that will need more offensive firepower than it got last year even after adding Santander to the mix. On the other hand, the Blue Jays already have a luxury tax payroll of $200MM for 2026 (per RosterResource) before even considering arbitration-level contracts for players like Varsho and Clement.

That could make adding another big salary to the books difficult for the Blue Jays to stomach, and the club has seemingly set itself up to better stomach the loss of Bichette by trading for Gimenez. The 26-year-old has played the vast majority of his big league games at second base, but he has shortstop experience and is regarded as perhaps the best defensive second baseman in the entire sport, suggesting he should have little trouble sliding over to the left side of the infield. Given Bichette’s aforementioned mediocre defense at short, Gimenez could actually prove to be an upgrade at the position in terms of his glove.

That would then mean needing to replace Gimenez at second base and Bichette’s bat in the lineup, however. A big season from Wagner this year could make that possible to do internally. Other internal options who could help out include Davis Schneider, Addison Barger, Orelvis Martinez and Leo Jimenez. In terms of external options, this coming offseason has infielders like Gleyber Torres, Ha-Seong Kim, Alex Bregman and Trevor Story as possibilities, depending on some opt-out decisions.

How do MLBTR readers think the situation in Toronto will play out? Will Bichette be allowed to hit free agency? And, if so, will he be playing in Toronto or elsewhere come Opening Day 2026? Have your say in the poll below:

Rockies Promote Zac Veen, Option Jordan Beck

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April 8: The Rockies have formally announced the moves. Veen is up from Albuquerque for his MLB debut, while Beck has been optioned to Triple-A in his place.

April 6: The Rockies are promoting top outfield prospect Zac Veen for their next game against the Brewers on Tuesday, according to a report from Thomas Harding of MLB.com. Outfielder Jordan Beck will be optioned to make room for Veen on the active roster, and Veen is already on the club’s 40-man roster.

It’s a slightly delayed big league debut for Veen, who was in the conversation for an Opening Day roster spot but ultimately lost out to Beck, Sean Bouchard, and non-roster invitee Nick Martini for a shot at regular work in the corner outfield for Colorado to start the year. The 23-year-old was Colorado’s first-round pick back in 2020 and was a consensus top-50 prospect early in his pro career. That prospect status was built primarily on phenomenal performances at the Single-A and High-A levels, where he posted slash lines of .301/.399/.501 and .269/.368/.439 respectively.

He’s been limited to just 111 games by injuries over the past two years, however, which has dropped his prospect stock significantly. A lackluster stint at Double-A in 2022 where he hit just .177/.262/.243 across 34 games already presented some red flags, so many prospect evaluators bailed on Veen when he struggled to a lackluster .209/.304/.308 slash line in 46 games at the level in 2023, particularly when combined with a wrist injury that cost him most of the season. The outfielder’s numbers bounced back somewhat in 2024, as he slashed .258/.346/.459 across four levels of the minors last year while battling thumb and back issues that limited him to just 65 games.

Fortunately, he finally showed he could hit Double-A pitching in a 36-game sample last year and even held his own at Triple-A, with six homers in 21 games despite a 29.3% strikeout rate. That was enough to earn Veen a shot to prove himself during camp this year, and while he ultimately didn’t make the club’s Opening Day roster he made the most of the opportunity and hit well with a .270/.352/.460 slash line in 28 spring games. Since being demoted to Triple-A, he’s done nothing but hit, posting a scorching .444/.516/.778 slash line with as many extra-base hits (six) as strikeouts in his first seven games of the year at the level.

Clearly, that was enough that the Rockies couldn’t justify keeping him in the minors any longer. That leaves Beck ticketed for Triple-A, and the 38th-overall pick of the 2022 draft certainly didn’t do himself any favors this year when it came to keeping his roster spot. The outfielder’s showing in camp was solid enough, as he posted a .231/.306/.446 slash line in 24 games, but that line paled in comparison to that of Veen and Beck also struck out at a 34.7% clip. Once the regular season began, however, Beck’s production tanked as he’s gone just 3-for-23 with a 34.8% strikeout rate and zero extra-base hits. Combined with a lackluster .188/.245/.276 showing in 55 games last year, and it seems clear that the 23-year-old needs more time to develop in the minors before he’s ready for the majors.

What’s unclear is how playing time will be distributed in the Rockies’ outfield mix going forward. Martini and Mickey Moniak, both left-handed hitters, have largely platooned with the right-handed Beck and Bouchard in the outfield corners to this point. Brenton Doyle is locked into center field on a daily basis, and Veen makes little sense as a platoon partner for either Martini or Moniak given his status as a fellow lefty bat. Given Veen’s status as a (formerly) highly-touted prospect, it seems likely that the club will give him a run of everyday playing time going forward.

That could come at the expense of either Martini or Moniak, who would be relegated to a bench role, but it’s also at least possible the club is planning to move Kris Bryant into a reserve role. The club’s oft-injured $182MM man has struggled badly both during Spring Training and since the season began in his new role as the club’s regular DH, having collected just six total hits in 59 plate appearances between camp and the regular season. To what extent Bryant can handle playing the field is unclear after injuries limited him to just 159 games from 2022 to 2024, but it’s at least plausible the club could use him as a right-handed complement to Veen, Martini, Moniak, and Michael Toglia across the outfield corners, first base, and DH if they were to decide to move him to a part-time role.

Such a decision would be a bold one given both Bryant’s massive contract (which runs through 2028) and his previous success as a four-time All-Star and the 2016 NL MVP award winner. At the same time, the Rockies appear to be years from contention and Bryant simply hasn’t produced at the plate since the 2022 season, even when healthy enough to take the field. Perhaps the debut of Veen is enough to convince the club to try and maximize Bryant’s effectiveness in a more limited role going forward.

The Opener: Lopez, MRIs, MLBTR Chat

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Here are three things for MLBTR readers to keep an eye out for today:

1. Lopez going under the knife:

Last week, Braves manager Brian Snitker told reporters (including Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution) that right-hander Reynaldo Lopez’s arthroscopic shoulder surgery is scheduled for today. As noted by David O’Brien of The Athletic, the extent of repair necessary won’t be known until surgery begins. A simple cleanup could have Lopez back on the mound this year, whereas a more significant issue would threaten the remainder of his 2025 campaign. Some sort of timetable for Lopez’s return seems likely to be made available once the procedure is complete. In the meantime, the Braves are relying on AJ Smith-Shawver, Grant Holmes, and Bryce Elder in the rotation behind Chris Sale and Spencer Schwellenbach.

2. Robles, Marte await MRI results:

Mariners outfielder Victor Robles and Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte were placed on the injured list over the weekend due to a shoulder injury and hamstring strain, respectively. Both were serious enough issues that neither Seattle nor Arizona felt the need to wait for testing before making an IL stint official, and both players were scheduled to undergo MRIs yesterday, per Adam Jude of The Seattle Times and Alex Weiner of AZSports. When those results become available, fans should have a better idea of how long the Mariners will be without their leadoff man and how long the D-backs will be without their superstar hitter. Seattle called up outfielder Dominic Canzone while Robles is out of commission, though many Robles’ right field reps could go to Luke Raley, with Rowdy Tellez slotting in at first base and several players cycling through the DH spot in the lineup. Rookie Tim Tawa has filled in at second for Marte, and utilityman Garrett Hampson could see time there as well.

3. MLBTR Chat Today:

Each MLB team is now around ten games into the season, and some expected contenders like those in Atlanta and Arizona have struggled while more surprising teams like the Giants and Angels have done quite well for themselves. There’s still plenty of baseball left to go, however, and if you have questions about which starts to believe in or are already looking towards July’s trade deadline then MLBTR’s Steve Adams has you covered in a live chat scheduled for 1pm CT today. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.

Astros Select Logan VanWey

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April 7: Per Matt Kawahara of The Houston Chronicle, the moves are now official. Garcia was transferred to the 60-day IL to open a 40-man spot for VanWey.

April 6: The Astros are promoting right-hander Logan VanWey to the majors, according to a report from Ari Alexander of KPRC2. VanWey’s contract will be selected from the minor leagues and he’ll join the team during their coming trip to Seattle, which begins with a game tomorrow evening. The righty’s first appearance for the Astros will be his big league debut. Alexander reports that right-hander Luis Contreras will be optioned to the minors to make room for VanWey on the active roster. The club will need to make a 40-man roster move to accommodate the addition of VanWey, although this could be easily accomplished by transferring right-hander Luis Garcia to the 60-day injured list.

VanWey, 26, went undrafted out of college and was signed by the Astros out of the Pioneer League, where he made nine starts with the Glacier Range Riders. After being signed by Houston in 2022, VanWey threw eight scoreless innings for the club’s Florida Complex League team but didn’t make his full-season debut until 2023. The right-hander was initially assigned to the High-A level to open the season, but his 3.71 ERA in 17 innings of work combined with a 25.6% strikeout rate was enough to get him a promotion to Double-A. VanWey did even better at the new level, with a 3.00 ERA in 30 innings of work with an amazing 32.5% strikeout rate, though it did come with an elevated 13.2% walk rate.

Nonetheless, VanWey made it to the Triple-A level during his first full season in affiliated ball. While he was torched for three runs in just 1 1/3 innings of work during that first stint with the Astros’ Sugar Land affiliate, he posted far better numbers in a full season at the level last year. In all, VanWey worked 72 2/3 innings across 60 appearances in 2024 with a 3.22 ERA, a 31.5% strikeout rate, and a 12.9% walk rate. While that wildness still stood out as a potential concern, the right-hander’s overall numbers were made all the more impressive by the fact that he was pitching in the inflated offensive environment of the Pacific Coast League; just three pitchers with at least 40 innings of work at the level posted a lower ERA than VanWey for the Space Cowboys last year.

That strong performance earned VanWey the chance to compete for a job in the Astros’ bullpen this spring. He did quite well for himself, with a 1.32 ERA in 13 2/3 frames. His 26.8% strikeout rate was below his usual expectations, but a solid 8.9% walk rate more than made up for that. Even so, VanWey was left off of the club’s Opening Day roster and reported to Triple-A to open the year, where he’s struck out a third of his opponents across four outings. His latest stint in the minors appears to be over for the time being, however, as VanWey will now reportedly head to Seattle to join the big league Astros. Going from an undrafted free agent pitching in indy ball to the majors in just three years is an accomplishment by itself, but now the 26-year-old will be tasked with getting big league hitters out and contributing to an Astros bullpen that has little certainty outside of its dynamic late-inning duo of Bryan Abreu and Josh Hader.

As for Contreras, the 28-year-old righty made his big league debut last year with a brief cup of coffee that lasted just six innings. This year, he’s surrendered two runs in three innings of work but struck out an excellent 46.2% of his opponents in his limited time in the majors since the start of the season. He sports a career 3.65 ERA in 101 frames at Triple-A and will likely be an up-and-down reliever riding the shuttle between the majors and Triple-A for the Astros throughout the year given his high-octane stuff and ability to be optioned to the minors.

Poll: Automated Ball-Strike System In MLB

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After years of fans and people around the game alike advocating for it, the automated ball-strike system was implemented in big league Spring Training this year. That was widely believed to portend its arrival in the majors, which MLB commissioner Rob Manfred all but confirmed in an interview published yesterday where he suggested that the system could be in regular season games as soon as the 2026 season, pending approval from the MLBPA. With that being said, Manfred suggested that the details of how ABS is implemented into the majors could wind up being collectively bargained. If that’s the case, its implementation could be delayed until after the upcoming CBA negotiations following the 2026 season.

During Spring Training, a challenge system was used not unlike the one already utilized in the majors for instant replay on the bases. Each team started the game with two challenges available to them, and would retain their challenge after using it successfully or lose it after using it incorrectly. As noted by Ronald Blum of the Associated Press just before Opening Day, teams challenged 2.6% of called pitches during the spring with just over four challenges per game and a success rate of 52.2% overall. If those numbers were to hold, that would mean the ABS challenge system overturns just two ball-strike calls in the average regular season game.

While official reports on the accuracy of ball-strike calls from MLB umpires are not available, a report published by Boston University’s Mark T. Williams that looked at the issue back in 2019 using data from the 2018 campaign suggested that MLB umpires made 14 incorrect ball-strike calls per game that year. If that figure holds true into today, that would mean that the challenge system overturns less than 15% of incorrect ball-strike calls made. What’s more, Williams’s report suggests that umpires tend to make more mistakes in certain situations, such as calling true balls as strikes in two-strike counts. Despite that, there’s nothing in Blum’s data to suggest that more calls got overturned in those sorts of key situations than usual. While teams challenged 6.9% of full count calls, just 44% of those challenges were correct.

Given the relative lack of impact felt by the presence of the challenge system this spring, it’s easy to wonder if perhaps using a fully automated system that entirely removes umpire discretion from the equation would be preferable. It’s hard to dispute that it would lead to more accurately called games, which could have a far more significant impact on outcomes than the challenge system had during Spring Training. Manfred suggested in yesterday’s interview that umpires themselves would actually prefer a fully automated system to the challenge system currently being used, perhaps because it would avoid putting a spotlight on their mistakes.

On the other hand, it’s open for debate whether or not taking ABS to that level would be truly preferable. Incorrect calls aren’t necessarily innately bad; after all, fans, players, managers, and umpires have worked with a somewhat nebulous definition of the strike zone since the advent of baseball itself. What any individual thinks of as the strike zone is unlikely to be perfectly identical to the zone used in ABS, and that’s supported by the fact that nearly half of challenges made to umpire calls wound up being incorrect. That suggests players aren’t always more in tune with what the true strike zone looks like than umpires are, and a move to fully automated ball-strike calls could be a jarring adjustment for both pitchers and hitters as they adapt to a more accurate but wildly unfamiliar strike zone.

That could be part of why the players, according to Manfred, prefer a challenge system to fully automated ball-strike calls. Another factor in the players’ preference for a challenge system could be how full ABS would change the catcher position. Pitch framing has long been a key aspect of catcher defense behind the plate, and it’s become even more focused upon over the past decade. Players with elite framing skills like Jeff Mathis and Austin Hedges have managed to make careers out of their ability to steal strikes for their pitchers over the years, but a fully automated strike zone cannot be influenced by pitch framing.

A challenge system, meanwhile, still allows them to use their framing prowess to convince umpires (as well as a hitter considering a challenge) that a true ball was a strike. It even adds another level of intrigue to the catcher position, as Blum notes that catchers had the highest success rate when challenging ball-strike calls this spring. Catchers successfully overturned 56% of challenged ball-strike calls, compared to exactly 50% for hitters and just 41% for pitchers. Given the wide disparity between catchers and pitchers in terms of success rate at challenge ball-strike calls, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see most clubs have their catchers handle the majority of ball-strike calls when on defense under a challenge system.

How do MLBTR readers think the implementation of ABS should be handled? Should the league stick with the challenge system used in Spring Training despite its relatively low impact, or go to a fully-automated system despite potential player objections? Or perhaps you believe that ABS shouldn’t be used in the majors at all? Have your say in the poll below:

Cardinals Place Ivan Herrera On Injured List, Select Yohel Pozo

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April 7: The Cardinals made these moves official today. To open the necessary 40-man spot, left-hander Zack Thompson was transferred to the 60-day IL. He was shut down in early March due to a tear in his left lat muscle. He is now ineligible to be reinstated until 60 days from Opening Day, which would be late May.

April 6: The Cardinals are planning to place catcher Ivan Herrera on the injured list due to left knee inflammation tomorrow, as club manager Oli Marmol told ESPN’s Buster Olney on this evening’s Sunday Night Baseball broadcast. Marmol added that initial test results came back clean on Herrera’s knee and that it remains structurally sound despite the impending IL placement. As relayed by Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the Cardinals will select the contract of catcher Yohel Pozo to pair with Pedro Pages behind the plate while Herrera is on the shelf. A 40-man roster spot will need to be vacated to accommodate Pozo.

As noted by Goold earlier today, Herrera’s injury occurred during Game 1 of a double-header between the Red Sox and Cardinals this afternoon and required Herrera to be helped off the field after he felt discomfort when running from first to third on a single. Herrera appeared to be doing better later in the day, as John Denton of MLB.com notes that the backstop was moving around the clubhouse without pain during the layoff between today’s two games against Boston. Even so, it’s hardly a surprise that Herrera is headed for the injured list given physical toll that catching takes on a player’s knees. With Herrera suffering from knee inflammation, that could mean a fairly significant absence even with imaging having revealed no structural damage.

It’s a substantial loss for the Cardinals. Herrera has enjoyed a scorching start to the year, hitting .400/.455/1.100 in his first 22 plate appearances this year with four home runs, three of which came during a single game against the Angels earlier this week. That’s obviously a small sample size, but even Herrera’s career slash line in the majors entering play today sat at an impressive .296/.371/.444, good for a wRC+ of 130 across 102 games. That’s a strong mark for any hitter, but it’s nothing short of phenomenal from the catcher position and would make Herrera one of the best offensive backstops in the sport if maintained over the full 2025 campaign.

Any hope of that will have to be put on hold for now, however, as Herrera is ticketed for the injured list for the foreseeable future. In the meantime, it appears that Pages will step in as the club’s regular catcher. Pages has gotten off to a solid start this year in his own right, going 4-for-10 with a double and a homer against just one strikeout in five games. The 26-year-old is generally not regarded as offering the same offensive ceiling as Herrera, however, and hit just .238/.281/.376 in 68 games for the Cardinals last year. With that being said, he’s a solid defensive catcher who can offer consistently passable offense behind the plate and should have little trouble holding things down while Herrera is away.

Perhaps more interesting than Pages’s turn as the starting catcher is the club’s plans for the backup catcher spot on the club. Veteran Willson Contreras spent the entirety of his big league career as a catcher until this offseason, when the Cardinals moved him to first base. Though generally regarded as an average-to-below-average defensive option behind the plate, Contreras has generally been serviceable as a bat-first catcher throughout his career. That made it something of a shock that the club is not only opting to call up Pozo to serve as Pages’s backup, but that the club didn’t even use Contreras behind the plate during today’s double-header, instead having Pages catch nearly two full games. That suggests that Contreras won’t even be used behind the plate on an emergency basis, even though a lineup with him behind the plate and Alec Burleson or Luken Baker at first base would surely be more offensively robust than one featuring either Pages or Pozo.

Regardless, with Contreras locked in at first base it seems that backup catching duties will go to Pozo for the time being. The 27-year-old made his big league debut with the Rangers back in 2021 but hasn’t appeared in the majors since. He got into 21 games with Texas that year, hitting a decent .284/.312/.378 in 77 plate appearances along the way. In the years since then, Pozo has been serving as a depth option for the Rangers, Athletics, and now Cardinals at the Triple-A level and has done nothing but rake while doing so. In 329 games across five seasons at the Triple-A level, Pozo has slashed a strong .321/.343/545. While he can’t be reasonably expected to post anything close to that in the majors, his strong work at the highest level of the minors does suggest he may be able to offer some pop in his bat, making him a solid partner for Pages behind the plate while Herrera is out.

Adam Ottavino Re-Signs With Yankees

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April 7: The Yanks made it official today, announcing that Ottavino has been re-signed and added to the active roster.

April 6: The Yankees announced this evening that Ottavino has cleared waivers and elected free agency rather than accept an outright assignment to the minor leagues. SNY’s Andy Martino reported shortly thereafter that the Yankees are re-signing Ottavino. It’s unclear if it’s a major or minor league deal, but either way it appears the that the veteran will be joining the club in Detroit for tomorrow’s game against the Tigers. Southpaw Brent Headrick was optioned to the minors this evening, meaning no corresponding move will be necessary to bring Ottavino back into the fold as the 40-man roster spot created by Ottavino’s own departure has not yet been filled.

April 4: The Yankees announced this morning that they have designated right-hander Adam Ottavino for assignment. The move opens up a roster spot for closer Devin Williams, who is returning from the paternity list.

Ottavino, 39, is in his 15th season as a big league player. The veteran made his big league debut in St. Louis with 22 1/3 innings of work back in 2010 but didn’t stick consistently in the majors until 2012 as a member of the Rockies bullpen. Ottavino made a name for himself across seven seasons in Colorado as a rare pitcher who was able to post consistently above-average results despite calling Coors Field home, with a 3.41 ERA (136 ERA+) and a nearly matching 3.42 FIP across 390 2/3 innings of work in a Rockies uniform.

Since the start of the 2019 season, however, Ottavino has pitched on the east coast. The right-hander signed with the Yankees on a three-year deal in January of 2019, and in 73 appearances for the club that year he immediately made good on the deal with a sterling 1.90 ERA and a 31.1% strikeout rate. Things took a turn for the worse during the shortened 2020 season, however, as Ottavino struggled to the first below-average ERA of his career since arriving in Colorado and ultimately had his salary dumped to the Red Sox ahead of the final year of his deal. That year saw him bounce back somewhat, though his 4.21 ERA (112 ERA+) and 3.96 FIP were still that of a solid middle reliever rather than a quality set-up man.

The right-hander returned to New York in 2022, though this time he pitched in Queens rather than the Bronx. He ultimately spent three seasons with the Mets, posting a solid 3.14 ERA (128 ERA+) with a 3.66 FIP during that time. His effectiveness began to decline over the course of that time as he entered his late 30s, however, and his 3.75 ERA (111 ERA+) and 4.11 FIP in 117 2/3 innings over the past two years were far more pedestrian. After putting up a below-average 91 ERA+ in his final year with the Mets, Ottavino was unable to find a big league guarantee on the open market this winter. He pitched for the Red Sox in Spring Training this year, but was lit up to the tune of six runs in five innings of work.

Ultimately, the veteran did not make Boston’s Opening Day roster and was granted his release. That gave him the opportunity to sign with the Yankees earlier this week, though he ended up making just two appearances during this second stint in the Bronx. Overall, he threw 1 1/3 scoreless innings for the Yankees during his brief return to the club, with zero hits allowed and two strikeouts against two walks. Going forward, the Yankees will have one week to either work out a trade involving Ottavino or try to pass him through waivers. If he goes through waivers unclaimed, the Yankees could attempt to outright him to the minors but Ottavino has more than enough service time to reject that assignment in favor of free agency should he so choose.

Ottavino’s departure makes way for the return of Williams, who the club acquired from the Brewers in exchange for Caleb Durbin and Nestor Cortes over the offseason. The NL Rookie of the Year in 2020 and a two-time All-Star, Williams has made a name for himself as one of the best closers in the game after posting a 1.83 ERA and 2.39 FIP in 235 2/3 innings of work for the Brewers over the years. The start to his Yankees career began inauspiciously with a run allowed in his first outing, but there’s little doubt that the righty will be able to get things back on track now that he’s back with the club.

The Opener: Cardinals, Jansen, Pitchers’ Duel

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On the heels of last night’s massive extension for Vladimir Guerrero Jr, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Cardinals 40-man roster move incoming:

After catcher Ivan Herrera went down with knee inflammation that will require a trip to the injured list yesterday, it was reported that the Cardinals are selecting the contract of catcher Yohel Pozo to backup Pedro Pages behind the plate while Herrera is on the shelf. The Cardinals have a full 40-man roster, however, and as such they’ll need to create space for Pozo by designating one of their players for assignment in order to add their new backstop to the roster. The decision to add Pozo rather than simply call up a position player already on the 40-man like Michael Helman or Jose Fermin is a notable one because the Cardinals could theoretically just use first baseman Willson Contreras, who spent his entire career as a catcher prior to moving to first this offseason, as the backup for Pages. Instead, however, they’ll bring in a back-up from Triple-A to allow Contreras to continue focusing on first base.

2. Jansen ties Smith:

Yesterday, Angels closer Kenley Jansen recorded the 1,225th strikeout of his career in a scoreless ninth inning against the Guardians. With that punchout, Jansen tied Hall of Famer Lee Smith for fifth all-time on the strikeouts leaderboard as a reliever. The 37-year-old righty’s next K will give him sole possession of fifth on the all-time leaderboard, with fellow relief aces Aroldis Chapman (1,250) and Craig Kimbrel (1,265) currently sitting in the next two spots ahead of Jansen. Both are active players, but given that Kimbrel is on a minor league deal with Atlanta and has not yet pitched in the majors this year both Chapman and Jansen stand a solid chance of passing him at some point this season.

3. Reds, Giants scheduled for a pitchers’ duel:

The Reds are headed to Oracle Park in San Francisco for a three-game set against the Giants that begins this evening, with tonight’s game scheduled for 6:45pm local time. In a clash of pitching styles, Cincinnati is poised to send hard-throwing righty Hunter Greene to the mound opposite Giants sinkerballer Logan Webb. Both hurlers are among the best in the game at what they do, with Greene sporting a sterling 2.72 ERA in 28 starts dating back to last season thanks in large part to a 28.2% strikeout rate and his triple-digit fastball. Webb, meanwhile, is entering his fifth season as a front-of-the-rotation arm in San Francisco despite a far more pedestrian 22.4% strikeout rate due primarily to his phenomenal 59% groundball rate since the start of the 2021 season.

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