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The Opener: Padres, Cubs, Pitchers’ Duel

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As the 2025 regular season continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Padres scrambling in center?

The Padres’ lineup took a major hit when Jackson Merrill went on the injured list with a hamstring strain earlier this week, but that injury looms even larger now that outfielder Brandon Lockridge is suffering from a hamstring issue of his own. Lockridge hasn’t hit much (58 wRC+) in a part-time role this year, but he figured to get expanded opportunities as the club’s center fielder while Merrill is out of action. As noted by Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune, Lockridge appears to have avoided significant damage but is day-to-day due to inflammation in his hamstring.

If Lockridge is unable to play, the Padres’ options in center are shaky at best. Jason Heyward has plenty of experience but only played seven innings there in 2024 and is now in his age-35 season. Oscar Gonzalez and Tyler Wade have both made token appearances in center over their MLB careers, but a 40-man roster move to bring up a non-roster player like Tim Locastro may be in order if Lockridge ends up missing time. One other option could be sliding Fernando Tatis Jr. over to center field. He has just 12 games of experience at the position but has expressed interest in playing there more frequently in the past.

2. Series Preview: Cubs @ Padres

Speaking of the Padres, they’re entering a series that could wind up serving as a preview of a playoff matchup if the two participating teams continue their hot starts to the season. The Cubs have won four consecutive series and are 11-7 overall, and they’re arriving in San Diego to face a Padres club that’s 13-3 so far this year. Two of those three losses came in Chicago just last week, but the Padres are undefeated in 10 home games to this point in the season. The series kicks off at 6:40pm local time this evening, with right-hander Dylan Cease set to take the mound against the team that drafted him opposite Jameson Taillon. After today’s game, the sides will have two rematches from last week’s series with Randy Vasquez and Nick Pivetta both toeing the rubber for the Padres opposite Shota Imanaga and Matthew Boyd.

3. Pitchers’ duel in St. Louis:

The Cardinals are hosting the Astros at 6:45pm CT to kick off this week’s three-game series, and both teams are sending their aces to the mound for today’s contest. Veteran right-hander Sonny Gray has had a bit of a difficult start to his age-35 season, with a 4.50 ERA over his first three starts, but he looked more like himself his last time out against the Pirates when he shut down Pittsburgh’s offense with five innings of three-hit ball. Southpaw Framber Valdez, meanwhile, has looked as good as ever as he kicks off his final year before free agency. He’s posted a 2.50 ERA and struck out 29.6% of opponents over his first three starts, including six scoreless innings where he struck out eight Mariners and held Seattle to just two hits his last time out.

Justin Steele To Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery

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Cubs southpaw Justin Steele is slated to undergo season-ending surgery on his left elbow, manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Patrick Mooney of The Athletic) this afternoon. Steele was placed on the injured list with elbow tendinitis shortly after his most recent start against the Rangers and was sent to receive a second opinion on the issue after undergoing an initial MRI on Thursday. Whether or not Steele will require a full Tommy John surgery or instead undergo an internal brace procedure is not yet clear. He won’t pitch again in 2025 in either case, but internal brace procedures typically come with a shorter recovery timeline of around twelve months, as opposed to the timeline for Tommy John, which can stretch up to 18 months and would likely impact much of his 2026 campaign as well.

It’s a gut punch for the Cubs and their fans, particularly given initial indications that Steele’s injury wasn’t especially significant. The southpaw told reporters after his placement on the IL last week that he was expecting a minimum stint on the shelf, and the injury did not initially appear dissimilar from the relatively minor elbow issue that caused him to spend two weeks on the shelf last September. When the club opted to seek a second opinion on Steele’s elbow, they suggested that recurring nature of the tendinitis was the impetus behind their decision to seek a second opinion in hopes of putting a stop to the problem in a more permanent fashion. Evidently, that will require the southpaw to go under the knife.

For at least the rest of 2025, that will leave Chicago without perhaps their most talented pitcher overall. Steele has drawn criticism over the years for his repertoire, which is generally limited to just a fastball and a slider aside from a handful of rarely-used tertiary offerings. Starting pitchers can rarely survive in the majors without at least three average pitches they can lean on, but Steele has managed to buck that trend. The unique properties of his fastball have allowed him to not only survive as a starter, but thrive. From the time he earned a job as a full-time starter in 2022 through the end of the 2024 season, Steele’s 3.10 ERA was sandwiched between Justin Verlander and Sandy Alcantara for the ninth-best figure in baseball. His 3.14 FIP also placed him within the top ten, and his 3.46 SIERA was good for 19th and placed him ahead of well-regarded aces such as Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Zac Gallen.

The southpaw wasn’t quite pitching up to that elite level in his first starts of the season. He was lit up to an ugly 6.89 ERA with a 19.4% strikeout rate in his first three starts of the year and, even as he mostly looked like his usual self in his latest start when he struck out eight Rangers across seven scoreless innings, his velocity has been down all year and averaged just barely 90 mph in that start against Texas. For a pitcher who usually sits around 92 mph, that’s a notable and concerning drop in velocity, but it’s nonetheless surely frustrating for the southpaw to be shut down just when he was beginning to turn a corner this year.

With Steele now out for at least the remainder of the year, the Cubs will need to hope for strong health from the remainder of their starting pitching options. Fellow southpaw Shota Imanaga will be leaned on heavily to step in as the team’s ace after a dominant rookie season in the majors where the 31-year-old managed a fifth-place finish in NL Cy Young voting and received an All-Star nod. Looking beyond Imanaga, fans in Chicago are left to hope that veteran Matthew Boyd’s brilliant performance (1.59 ERA, 3.34 FIP) across his first three starts in a Cubs uniform are a signal that he’ll be able to remain healthy and effective this year after four consecutive seasons of injury woes. Righty Jameson Taillon looking anything like he did last season, when he posted a 3.27 ERA and 3.92 FIP in 28 starts, would also go a long way to helping make up for the loss of Steele.

Outside of that veteran trio, the Cubs have little certainty in the rotation. Youngster Ben Brown looked good against the Dodgers in his start against the club yesterday, but carries a 5.09 ERA on the year despite a 3.89 FIP. Veteran swingman Colin Rea has looked good in three scoreless appearances as a long relief arm this year and is filling in for Steele as a spot starter today, though whether that’s Chicago’s long-term plan or just what they’ve decided on for today’s game remains to be seen. Right-hander Javier Assad is presently on the injured list due to an oblique issue but could start a minor league rehab assignment at some point this month.

Aside from those big league options, the club has some pitching depth in the minors as well. Southpaw Jordan Wicks was scratched from his start with Triple-A Iowa last week, though it’s unclear if that was to preserve him as a possible option to start today’s game or due to an injury of his own. Brandon Birdsell was on the radar for a possible big league debut at some point this year, though a shoulder issue has kept him out of action since February with no timetable for return. Top pitching prospect Cade Horton has a 1.23 ERA and 38.7% strikeout rate in his first two starts with Iowa this year, but has not yet fully built up to five inning starts after missing most of last year with his own injury issues. Veteran righty Chris Flexen signed a minor league deal with Chicago over the offseason and remains at Triple-A with the organization as a potential innings-eater, if necessary.

That’s enough depth that the Cubs should be able to get by in the rotation for the time being without much issue, as long as they avoid another major injury. Even so, the eyes of fans in Chicago are surely already turning to the trade deadline this summer. It’s unlikely the Cubs would jump the market and swing a major trade for a starting pitcher this far from July 31, but if the club remains in a strong position to contend this summer it would hardly be a surprise to see them involved in the trade market. Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara is widely expected to be the top arm available, but Tyler Anderson, Chris Bassitt, and Michael Lorenzen are among a number of lesser arms on expiring contracts who could theoretically be available this summer depending on where their respective clubs find themselves in the standings come July.

Cubs Release Caleb Kilian

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The Cubs have released right-hander Caleb Kilian, according to the transactions log on his MLB.com profile page. The righty was designated for assignment by the Cubs last week and presumably passed through waivers unclaimed in the days since his DFA. The Cubs could have outrighted the right-hander to the minor leagues, but evidently did not choose to do so. He’ll now be eligible to sign with any of the league’s 30 clubs without the club needing to carry him on their 40-man roster.

Kilian, 28 in June, got his start in pro ball as an eighth-round pick by the Giants back in 2019. He made just seven appearances in the minors that year, with 16 scoreless innings between rookie ball and Low-A. That impressive start to Kilian’s pro career was put on hold due to 2020’s canceled minor league season, and when he got off to a hot start with the Giants between the High-A and Double-A levels in 2020, Kilian found himself swapped to the Cubs alongside outfielder Alexander Canario at the 2021 trade deadline in the deal that made Kris Bryant a Giant.

That trade kicked off Kilian’s Cubs career, and he made four starts for the club’s Double-A affiliate down the stretch to finish the year with a 2.42 ERA and a 29.2% strikeout rate in 100 1/3 innings across two levels of the minors. Those were solid numbers for the year and put Kilian on the radar for a big league call-up at some point in 2022. He started the year at Triple-A but got his chance with the Cubs in June of that year. His first outing in the majors was a solid run, as he allowed three runs across five innings of work while striking out six and walking two. Things came apart from there, however, and Kilian struggled to a 14.21 ERA with ten walks in just 6 1/3 innings of work against three strikeouts.

That pair of disastrous outings ended Kilian’s first foray into the majors, and his newfound control struggles seemingly followed him back to the minors. After posting a 2.06 ERA with a 9.1% walk rate and a 24.8% strikeout rate in nine Triple-A starts prior to his call-up, Kilian struggled to a 5.37 ERA with a 14.6% walk rate the rest of the way after being optioned back down to the minor leagues. He managed to rein in his wildness in 2023, but that came at the expense of punchouts; Kilian struggled to a 4.56 ERA in 25 Triple-A outings that year despite walking just 7% of his opponents thanks to a lackluster 18.6% strikeout rate.

Last season, Kilian appeared to be in the conversation for a big league job with the Cubs during Spring Training before being sidelined by a teres major strain for several months. When healthy enough to pitch again, Kilian posted a 3.22 ERA in 44 2/3 innings of work at the Triple-A level. That was a marked improvement, but his 20.3% strikeout rate was still lackluster. He continued to struggle at the big league level in brief call-ups to the majors as well, with a 4.22 ERA and 5.98 FIP in 10 2/3 innings of work that brought his career ERA in the majors down to 9.22.

Coming into 2025, Kilian had an odd Spring Training where he struck out 32.3% of his opponents in six innings of work, but also surrendered 12 hits and wound up with a 7.50 ERA. His first start at the Triple-A level was nothing short of disastrous this year, as he surrendered six runs over 2 1/3 innings of work. That wound up being his only outing with the Cubs this year before they decided to pull the plug and designate him for assignment. Now that he’s cleared waivers and been granted his release, the right-hander will have the opportunity to sign with any of the league’s 30 clubs and try to get his career back on track, though it’s also possible he could look to reinvent himself in independent ball or overseas as well.

Dodgers, White Sox Previously Discussed Luis Robert Jr. Trade

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The Dodgers and White Sox previously engaged in trade talks that would’ve sent center fielder Luis Robert Jr. to Los Angeles in exchange for outfielder James Outman and an unnamed “front-line prospect,” according to a report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Nightengale notably adds that talks between the sides have been tabled at present, however, and it’s unclear whether these discussions occurred recently or at some point during this past offseason.

That the Dodgers would have interest in Robert is fairly unsurprising. The center fielder was among the most obvious trade candidates of the offseason with Chicago coming off the worst season in MLB history. Robert himself was part of that brutal campaign, as he was limited to just 100 games by injuries and did not perform up to expectations even when healthy with a .224/.278/.379 slash line (84 wRC+). While he stole 23 bases and slugged 14 homers during that time, he was held back by a 33.2% strikeout rate, the highest of his career.

That’s not much of a platform season to market to potential suitors. Between that and the $17MM guaranteed to Robert this season between his $15MM salary and the $2MM buyout of a $20MM team option for 2026, it’s hardly a surprise that the White Sox weren’t able to find the right value for their franchise center fielder. Despite his weak 2024 campaign, however, he did garner interest from clubs like the Reds and Giants this winter. It’s not hard to see why, given that Robert is not too far removed from a 2023 campaign that saw him make his first career All-Star team, finish 12th in AL MVP voting, and win the Silver Slugger award in center field. In 145 games that year, he posted a 128 wRC+, slugged 38 homers, swiped 20 bags, and posted a 5-win campaign (4.9 fWAR, 5.3 bWAR).

That tantalizing upside appears to have intrigued the Dodgers as well. It was reported back in December that Robert was among a number of possible alternatives to Teoscar Hernandez that L.A. was weighing a pursuit of if they were unable to bring the slugger back into the fold via free agency, though that thought experiment ultimately went nowhere when Hernandez re-signed with the club shortly thereafter. Even after bringing Hernandez into the fold, however, adding Robert could make at least some sense for the Dodgers. With Robert installed in center field, L.A. would be much less reliant on Miguel Rojas (and, eventually, Hyeseong Kim) at second base and could instead install switch-hitter Tommy Edman at the position. A stronger defender on the infield like Edman could help Mookie Betts improve as he works on learning shortstop, or could even provide the Dodgers with the ability to begin using Edman at short and Betts at the keystone if the experiment of playing Betts at the most valuable defensive position on the diamond does not work out.

Between the additional flexibility Robert would provide the Dodgers in how they deploy Edman and his previous heights as a star player, it’s not hard to see why the club would have some level of interest in him. The discussions reported by Nightengale suggest that Outman would be a key part of the return, which could make plenty of sense for both sides. Outman, 28 next month, finished third in NL Rookie of the Year voting back in 2023 with an excellent debut season where he hit .248/.353/.437 (118 wRC+) as Los Angeles’s regular center fielder. Unfortunately, his sophomore season did not go nearly as well as he struck out in 35.3% of his plate appearances, posted a wRC+ of just 54, and was below replacement level in 53 games.

In some regards, Outman is a somewhat similar player to Robert, albeit with a far lower ceiling. Outman currently isn’t slated to hit free agency until after the 2030 season, which could also be attractive to the rebuilding White Sox. He evidently wouldn’t have been the only piece Chicago received had the trade been consummated, though it’s unclear whether the “front-line” prospect involved would be a top-100 type talent like southpaw Jackson Ferris or shortstop Alex Freeland or perhaps a less flashy name like righty Nick Frasso or outfielder Kendall George. What the hypothetical trade would have ended up looking like, it’s clear the sides aren’t currently discussing a deal at this point. Perhaps they could circle back and reignite talks closer to the trade deadline, when Robert is sure to be on the market ahead of the final guaranteed year of his contract.

Trevor Megill Undergoes MRI On Knee, Seeking Second Opinion

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The start of the 2025 campaign has been a bit of a mixed bag for Brewers right-hander Trevor Megill. The righty seemed like the natural successor to Devin Williams in the ninth inning after Milwaukee’s star closer was traded to the Yankees over the offseason, but a difficult spring appears to have carried over into the regular season. While Megill has struck out 36.4% of his opponents this year, that’s been paired with an 18.2% walk rate and a 5.79 ERA across six appearances.

That’s just 4 2/3 innings of work, a sample small enough for any reliever to run cold and have it be nothing more notable than that. That hasn’t stopped the Brewers and Megill from seeking answers, however. MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy noted last night that Megill has been pitching through a knee issue that proved to be bothersome enough that the club sent him for an MRI. The initial results came back clean, but McCalvy later added this morning that Megill told reporters this morning that he’s seeking a second opinion on his knee after the first look at his recent imaging showed “nothing alarming.”

That’s certainly encouraging news, although the fact that Megill is experiencing enough discomfort that he’s seeking a second opinion is at least somewhat worrying. The righty was down for six days earlier this month before pitching in back-to-back games on Friday and Saturday, after which he opted to seek a second opinion. Until that updated review of Megill’s imaging results comes in, it’s hard to say whether or not an IL stint is in the right-hander’s future. At the very least, it seems likely the Brewers will hold him out of games until those results come back and confirm that he’s healthy enough to pitch. Losing the right-hander for any amount of time would be a significant blow to the bullpen. Since joining the Brewers in 2023, Megill has been nothing short of fantastic with a 3.11 ERA and 2.69 FIP, including a 2.72 ERA in 48 appearances last year.

Those impressive numbers surely helped contribute to the club’s willingness to part ways with Williams this winter rather than hold onto him in his final year before free agency the way they kept shortstop Willy Adames in the fold last year due to his importance to the club’s ability to contend. No internal replacement can reasonably be expected to replace the production of Williams, who is on the shortlist for the very best relievers in all of baseball. Even so, his departure for the Bronx over the offseason makes Megill all the more important for the Brewers in a season where the NL Central figures to be far more competitive than it was last season, when Milwaukee cruised to a division crown with a ten-game lead over the second-place Cubs and Cardinals in the standings.

If Megill were to require a trip to the injured list, the Brewers do have some internal options they could lean on in the late innings. Righty Abner Uribe as well as lefties Bryan Hudson and Jared Koenig have all looked excellent to this point in the season and have past success with the Brewers in leverage situations and any of them could reasonably called upon in the ninth inning if Megill does require a trip to the shelf to address his ailing knee at some point. Elvis Peguero is the only reliever on the 40-man roster who’s available in the minors to be called up should a roster move be necessary, though Deivi Garcia and Vinny Nittoli are among the non-roster players with big league experience the club could turn to if they so desire.

Mariners Not Currently Listening To Offers On Luis Castillo

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Injuries to Ryan Bliss, Victor Robles, and Jorge Polanco have required the Mariners to drastically rethink their lineup in recent weeks. Bliss’s expected four-to-five month absence after undergoing surgery on his biceps leaves a hole at second base, which Polanco won’t be able to fill for at least another week or two as he’s been limited to DH-only duties by his own injuries. Robles, meanwhile, figures to be sidelined for at least three months by a shoulder fracture, which forced Luke Raley to move from first base to right field. That leaves two spots in the club’s infield that need to be filled, and while Miles Mastrobuoni and Rowdy Tellez are holding down the fort for the time being it’s hardly a surprise that the Mariners have begun exploring the market for infield help as they look to reconstruct their offense.

The idea of the Mariners searching the market for infield help is hardly a new one. Over the offseason, Seattle reportedly engaged in trade conversations regarding players like Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner, Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm, and Red Sox first baseman Triston Casas. None of those trade talks ultimately gained enough traction for Seattle to bring an infielder into the fold, however, and so they went into the season with a largely unchanged infield aside from a minor addition in Donovan Solano. The hangup in those talks appears to have been the Mariners’ hesitation to part ways with a member of their excellent starting rotation. Seattle’s on-paper starting five of Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo, and Bryce Miller is in the conversation for the very best in the entire sport, but the team’s unwillingness to split up that quintet seemed to hamper trade talks this winter even as they reportedly at least listened to offers on Castillo.

If the club was reluctant to trade from its rotation this winter, they appear even more unlikely to do so now. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote this morning that one unnamed organization offered the Mariners a young infielder in exchange for Castillo in the aftermath of Seattle’s recent injury woes but was rebuffed, with Seattle indicating that Castillo is off-limits for the time being. It’s notable that the club is holding firm on its desire to keep a strong starting rotation together, even if the details about the reported trade offer are rather sparse. It’s understandable that the Mariners wouldn’t want to compromise their starting pitching depth this early in the season, even in the face of their current woes on offense, given that Kirby is currently out of commission with shoulder inflammation.

Kirby is tentatively expected to be back at some point in May, but details on his recovery process have been relatively sparse so his exact timetable for a return is unclear. Nonetheless, it stands to reason that the Mariners wouldn’t be interested in dealing from a rotation that currently features just four starting pitchers until Kirby returns unless completely overwhelmed by an offer. That’s especially true given how well Castillo has pitched so far, with a 2.12 ERA and a 3.99 FIP across his first three starts of the season.

The Yankees and Mets entered the season with a number of notable rotation injuries and could certainly benefit from a proven starter like Castillo, and injuries will surely continue to plague the rotations of contenders in the coming weeks and months. Just today, the Cubs announced that ace southpaw Justin Steele will miss the remainder of the 2025 season due to impending elbow surgery. The Red Sox, Orioles, and Padres are among the other teams that have been bitten by the injury bug in the rotation to this point in the year, though that list could obviously look very different by the time trade season kicks into full gear.

Twins Option Jose Miranda, Activate Brooks Lee

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TODAY: The Twins officially announced Lee’s reinstatement from the IL, and Miranda being optioned to Triple-A.

APRIL 12: The Twins are set to option infielder Jose Miranda to the minor leagues, according to a report from Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic. Gleeman goes on to suggest that Miranda’s departure will make way for the return of infielder Brooks Lee, who he reports is expected to be activated from the 10-day injured list after missing the start of the season due to a bout of lower back tightness.

The demotion for Miranda comes after a baserunning blunder in today’s loss to the Tigers. The Tigers’ defense set up a force out at second base for Miranda, but second baseman Colt Keith failed to touch the bag, leaving the umpire to initially call Miranda safe. However, Miranda began walking back to the dugout before ever touching second base himself under the assumption he had been called out, allowing Keith to tag him for the out and costing Minnesota an opportunity to bat with a runner in scoring position. As noted by Gleeman, manager Rocco Baldelli was candid in his comments on the mistake after the game.

“Jose has to do better on that play,” Baldelli said. “The guy on the other side of the field was not on the bag and Jose didn’t make it to the bag on the slide either way. And the umpire was clearly signaling safe. We have to be paying attention, to say the least. We have to be paying attention there and never allow something like that to happen.”

While the timing of the move can’t be ignored, it’s fair to point out that the decision may have come strictly for performance reasons even ignoring today’s blunder. After all, Miranda has struggled badly this year with a lackluster .143/.143/.229 slash line in 11 games entering play today. That slash line comes with a massive 37.1% strikeout rate and zero walks taken, suggesting the infielder’s swing decisions may not be where they need to be in order for him to succeed in the majors at the moment. Miranda has never walked especially often, but he struck out just 15.4% of the time last season.

While Miranda had only gotten 35 plate appearances this year entering play today, his struggles date back to the 2024 season as well. His overall slash line was good for a 115 wRC+, but Miranda struggled quite badly in August and September with a .217/.243/.312 slash line over his final 144 plate appearances last year. That lengthy period of issues at the plate stretching back to midway through last season suggests the infielder might need a reset in the minors, where he can focus on getting right without the pressure of trying to help lift an 4-11 ballclub out of its early-season hole.

Regardless of the reasoning behind Miranda’s departure, his spot on the active roster will go to Lee. The Twins’ first-round pick in the 2022 draft, Lee made his big league debut last year. His 50 games in the majors weren’t exactly what Minnesota was hoping for, as he hit just .221/.265/.320. He struck out just 14.6% of the time, but walked at a clip of just 5.9% and showed little power, though he did play solid defense all around the infield. In his return to the roster, Lee will likely be tasked handling either second or third base on a regular basis. Edouard Julien is currently handling the keystone while Willi Castro covers the hot corner, though Julien could work his way into the first base and DH mix if bumped off of second base while Castro has the versatility to play anywhere but catcher.

Cubs, Pete Crow-Armstrong Discussed Contract Extension

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TODAY: The Cubs and Crow-Armstrong have ceased negotiations for now, the Athletic’s Patrick Mooney writes. As per Mooney’s framing, the talks seemed somewhat exploratory in nature, and perhaps more to “lay some groundwork for the future” rather than to complete an extension immediately. There was also some conflict with Feinsand’s report in terms of the $75MM ceiling of the possible extension, as Mooney writes that “team and league sources characterized the outline of that report…as inaccurate.”

APRIL 12: The Cubs recently reached out to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong’s camp with an extension offer, according to a report from MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. Feinsand relays that the deal would’ve maxed out in the $75MM range if all option years involved in the deal had been exercised, though it would not have reached that figure in terms of total guarantee. The exact structure of the offer is not known and, while Feinsand writes that the sides did not work out a deal, it’s unclear whether talks between the two sides have ended for the time being or could continue going forward.

That Chicago would have interest in extending Crow-Armstrong’s stay in Chicago beyond his years of control is hardly surprising. The longtime top prospect came over from the Mets in the Javier Baez trade at the 2021 trade deadline, and he flew through the minor leagues after arriving in Chicago to make his big league debut late in the 2023 season. Crow-Armstrong’s offense has not been anything special during his time in the majors so far, with a 79 wRC+ overall and an 87 wRC+ in 123 games last year, but he’s more than made up for that lackluster performance at the plate with phenomenal work in the field and on the bases. Crow-Armstrong went an excellent 27-for-30 on the basepaths last year, including 22 straight steals without being caught.

In the field, meanwhile, his +14 Outs Above Average and +11 Defensive Runs Saved were the fifth- and seventh-best figures among all outfielders, while his +16 Fielding Run Value was surpassed among fielders at all positions by only Giants catcher Patrick Bailey. Those defensive accolades become even more impressive when considering that Crow-Armstrong played just 112 games in center field, meaning he put up those huge numbers despite getting less than three-quarters of a full season’s worth of reps. Overall, that defensive and baserunning ability was good for 2.7 fWAR last year despite him being 13% below league average as a hitter.

The fact that Crow-Armstrong has flashed a three-win floor when prorated out over a full season has to be enticing to the Cubs even before considering his solid work on offense in the second half last year, when he slashed .260/.309/.442 with a 108 wRC+ and nine homers over the season’s final three months. If the 23-year-old were ever able to reach that sort of offensive production on a consistent basis, he’d likely blossom into the sort of perennial All-Star Chicago is surely hoping for. That all makes trying to extend Crow-Armstrong, as many other clubs have done with youngsters like Lawrence Butler and Ezequiel Tovar, a sensible goal for the organization.

With that being said, offering Crow-Armstrong a hefty contract under the expectation that he will fulfill that offensive ceiling would be very risky. He certainly wouldn’t be the first extremely talented hitter with five-tool potential to fail to reach that ceiling in the big leagues, and Billy Hamilton’s career serves as a reminder of the fact that a player can’t expect to find success purely off elite defensive and baserunning even if they play a position as defensively important as center field. That surely contributed to a recent poll of MLBTR readers winding up split nearly down the middle on whether or not the Cubs should pursue an extension with the youngster, with just under 52% of respondents voting no.

Chicago’s solution for the wide gap between Crow-Armstrong’s current offensive abilities and his demonstrated potential seems to have been to err on the side of caution. An extension that guarantees Crow-Armstrong significantly less than $75MM would fall below the standard set by many other recent early-career extensions including the aforementioned Butler and Tovar deals as well as deals signed by players like Jackson Chourio and Kristian Campbell just after or before their big league debuts. It’s hard to properly evaluate the deal the Cubs offered Crow-Armstrong without knowing more about the structure; after all, even the deal between Detroit and infielder Colt Keith maxes out in a similar range ($82MM) as the one reported for Crow-Armstrong despite guaranteeing him just $28.6425MM.

Given that even mediocre hitters with the sort of elite defense that Crow-Armstrong possesses like Harrison Bader and Kevin Kiermaier have been paid handsomely in free agency with one-year deals that often fall into the $10MM range, it makes sense that Crow-Armstrong would likely require a healthier guarantee than the one Keith received from the Tigers in order to sign on the dotted line. Evidently, the offer the Cubs presented his camp with did not pass muster, though with the youngster not presently set to hit free agency until after the 2030 season there’s still plenty of time for the two sides to work out a deal that extends his stay in Chicago past those initial years of team control.

Seiya Suzuki Exits Due To Right Wrist Issue

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Cubs slugger Seiya Suzuki exited tonight’s game against the Dodgers this evening due to right wrist pain, per a team announcement. Suzuki was serving as the club’s DH in tonight’s game but was pinch hit for by Miguel Amaya in the fifth inning. As noted by Marquee Sports Network’s Taylor McGregor during the club’s broadcast of the game, Suzuki first dealt with soreness in his wrist during the club’s series against the Athletics in Sacramento last week while playing the outfield. Suzuki has played exclusively DH in the eight games since that series.

It’s unclear at this point whether Suzuki’s injury is a day-to-day situation or will require a trip to the injured list, but either outcome would leave Chicago without one of its best hitters. The Cubs offense has gotten off to a hot start this year, helping to lead the club to a solid 10-7 record to open the season with an MLB-best 113 runs scored. That’s nearly seven runs per game, and a huge part of that production has been the duo of offseason acquisition Kyle Tucker (206 wRC+ entering play this evening) and Suzuki (170 wRC+).

While that otherworldly start to the season from Suzuki is certainly impressive, he was already the club’s best hitter for the past three years prior to the Tucker trade this winter. Since coming over from Japan prior to the 2022 season, Suzuki is hitting .279/.356/.473 with a 131 wRC+ that’s tied with Pete Alonso and Joc Pederson for 22nd among qualified MLB hitters over that time. He was even more impressive last year, when he slashed .283/.366/.482 with a wRC+ of 138 in 132 games for the Cubs. Impressive as Suzuki’s numbers have been, staying healthy has been a challenge for him over the years. After playing 111 games in his rookie season due to finger sprain that sidelined him for over a month, Suzuki has missed time due to oblique strains in each of the past two seasons as well.

It remains to be seen if this latest ailment will require a trip to the injured list, but in the event that it does the Cubs are fortunately fairly well-suited to handle an absence from even one of their top hitters. Justin Turner signed with Chicago over the offseason to serve as a veteran presence off the bench and spell Michael Busch at first base and, while he’s hitting just .250/.346/.250 to this point in the season, that production has come in a sample size of just 26 plate appearances during which Turner has posted identical 11.5% strikeout and walk rates. Given his track record of above-average offense that spans more than a decade, Turner should be able to step into the lineup and serve as an effective fill-in option even if he can’t be expected to replace the elite production Suzuki has offered to this point in the year.

If the Cubs decide to bolster the lineup with one of their prospects at Triple-A instead of leaning on Turner, the options are somewhat less inspiring. Kevin Alcantara and James Triantos have both yet to get going even with the club’s Iowa affiliate, and calling either player up to help the club in the majors when they’re already struggling against minor league pitching could be a tall order. Owen Caissie is hitting a more robust .267/.365/.538 in seven games for Iowa this year after posting a 121 wRC+ at the level last season, but his penchant for strikeouts over the years makes his 40% strikeout rate to open the season all the more worrisome.

Royals Notes: India, Outfield, Wright

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The Royals seem to have avoided what could’ve been a brutal blow this evening when infielder Jonathan India exited the club’s game against the Guardians due to what the club later announced was a bout of right quad tightness. After the game, manager Matt Quatraro told reporters (including MLB.com’s Anne Rogers) that the tightness India was suffering from was “mild” in nature but that it wasn’t loosening up throughout the game. The plan appears to be for Kansas City to further evaluate India’s status on Sunday, though Quatraro’s framing of the issue offers hope that a trip to the injured list may not be necessary.

India, 28, spent the first four seasons of his career as the regular second baseman in Cincinnati but was traded to the Royals alongside outfielder Joey Wiemer in a deal that brought back right-hander Brady Singer. Since arriving in Kansas City, India has split time between third base and left field while serving as the club’s leadoff hitter. He’s hit just .216/.333/.275 14 games into his Royals career, but his identical 13.3% strikeout and walk ratios showcase the strong plate discipline that the organization sought when they acquired India back in November. Given his previous track record of productivity and his lackluster .256 BABIP, it seems reasonable to expect the results to come with time over a larger sample size.

Those hopes of better offensive days in the future could be put on hold for the time being depending on how the club’s evaluation of India goes tomorrow. Should he require a few days off, or even a trip to the injured list, Maikel Garcia would likely step into his shoes at third base while some combination of Cavan Biggio and Drew Waters could be expected to handle India’s usual reps in the outfield. Speaking of the club’s outfield situation, veteran Mark Canha was placed on the injured list due to adductor strain earlier this week. Fortunately, Rogers notes that this issue has also been described by team officials as a relatively mild one, with Quatraro indicating that Canha should not take much longer than a minimum stay on the shelf due to the issue.

Canha was acquired by the Royals from the Brewers just before the season began after he signed with Milwaukee on a minor league deal but didn’t make the club out of Spring Training. While Canha wasn’t in a full-time role with the Royals prior to his injury, the 36-year-old veteran was making a strong case for more regular playing time as he slashed .357/.471/.500 across his first seven games with the club. Given the Royals’s overall lackluster production from the outfield both this year and last season, it would make plenty of sense for Canha to take on a larger role with the club once he rejoins the roster after his injured list stint is up. In the event that India requires an IL placement of his own, it’s even possible that Canha could fill in for him once the latter is back from his own trip to the shelf.

Sticking with more positive injury news, Rogers reported this evening that Kyle Wright is making progress with his throwing program in extended Spring Training. The right-hander threw two innings earlier this week before following the outing with a bullpen session to reach his pitch count goal. It was Wright’s first time pitching in a game in quite some time, as Wright missed most of the 2023 season and the entire 2024 campaign after undergoing surgery on his right shoulder. He was expected to be ready to go this spring, but was sidelined at the start of camp by a hamstring strain and has been working his way back ever since. Now that he’s back on the mound, Wright appears to be on solid pace to make his return to the big leagues (and his first start with the Royals since being acquired from Atlanta) sometime next month. Wright’s return would likely push veteran swingman Michael Lorenzen into a bullpen role, assuming the rest of the rotation remains healthy.

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