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Poll: National League Playoff Outlook

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We’re now a little over a quarter of the way through the 2025 regular season. With Memorial Day fast approaching, it’s hard for struggling teams to continue arguing that it’s still early. That isn’t to say playoff positions are set in stone, of course; on this day last year, the Cubs were firmly in playoff position while the Mets club that eventually made it all the way to the NLCS was still three games under .500. If the season ended today, the Dodgers, Cubs, Mets, Padres, Phillies, and Giants would be your playoff teams in the National League this year.

With four-and-a-half months left in the baseball calendar, which team currently outside of that group has the best chance of breaking their way into the mix? Yesterday’s poll covering the American League was won by the Red Sox (25%), who narrowly bested both the Rangers (20%) and Astros (20%) in a tight contest. Here’s a look at a few of NL’s the options, listed in order of record entering play today:

St. Louis Cardinals (24-20)

The Cardinals essentially left their roster untouched outside of the departure of veterans like Paul Goldschmidt and Kyle Gibson over the offseason. Right-hander Phil Maton was the club’s only major league free agent signing. Running back last year’s 83-win team without its former MVP first baseman didn’t do much for the Cardinals’ projections, but a recent nine-game win streak has allowed St. Louis to change the narrative. Willson Contreras has started hitting again, Masyn Winn could be breaking out, and Matthew Liberatore is making the decision to move him to the rotation look wise. If the Cards can keep playing anything close to this well, thoughts of selling Ryan Helsley at the deadline are likely to vanish before the calendar flips to July.

Arizona Diamondbacks (23-21)

The fourth team in a crowded four-team NL West race, the Diamondbacks have held their own this year despite injuries plaguing superstar Ketel Marte and the loss of A.J. Puk from an already-leaky bullpen. Corbin Burnes has delivered a sub-3.00 ERA despite shaky peripherals, Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt look like solid mid-rotation pieces, and Corbin Carroll is a superstar. If Zac Gallen (4.59 ERA) and Eduardo Rodriguez (7.07 ERA) can even pitch close to their respective 3.91 FIP and 4.30 FIP marks, Arizona should be a real threat to reach the postseason.

Atlanta Braves (22-22)

That Atlanta finds itself even in this conversation after going 0-7 to start the year is an impressive feat. The tandem of Sean Murphy and Drake Baldwin behind the plate has been a sensational one, and AJ Smith-Shawver is turning into a potential front-of-the-rotation surprise alongside Chris Sale and Spencer Schwellenbach. With a .500 record despite getting just one start from Spencer Strider and zero plate appearances from Ronald Acuna Jr. so far, it’s not hard to imagine the Braves fighting their way into the playoffs by season’s end. For that to happen, players like Matt Olson and Ozzie Albies will need to start hitting while closer Raisel Iglesias (5.71 ERA) will need to turn things around or be replaced by someone who can more consistently nail down save opportunities.

Milwaukee Brewers (21-23)

Disappointing performances from Christian Yelich, William Contreras, and Jackson Chourio to this point in the year have limited the Brewers’ performance so far. (Contreras is playing through a broken middle finger, which can’t help.) Thankfully, players like Rhys Hoskins and Brice Turang have both looked excellent so far and the Brewers have proved they can win mostly on the strength of their pitching before. Freddy Peralta and rookie Chad Patrick have been excellent, Brandon Woodruff is nearing a return, and top prospect Jacob Misiorowski is throwing 103 mph with dazzling results at Triple-A. If the star hitters can perform at a higher level going forward, perhaps that would be enough to get them back into the mix.

Cincinnati Reds (21-24)

It’s been a frustrating season for the Reds so far. The rotation, led by Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott, has been strong, but those contributions have been dampened by a frustrating lineup that has failed to get consistent quality production out of anyone but Jose Trevino and Gavin Lux. Even Elly De La Cruz has been a roughly average hitter overall, while key pieces like Matt McLain and Spencer Steer have been bitterly disappointing. Fortunately, Noelvi Marte seems to be coming around after a disastrous 2024. There’s still enough time that if the club’s young lineup can go on a heater, it’s easy to imagine a strong pitching staff carrying them back into the postseason conversation.

The Rest Of The Field

The five teams mentioned above are all within five games of a Wild Card spot. The rest of the league would have a lot more work to do. The Nationals have an exciting young core featuring James Wood, CJ Abrams and MacKenzie Gore but lack the pitching depth to capitalize on it. The Marlins have gotten a big performance from Kyle Stowers, but a disappointing pitching staff that includes an 8.10 ERA from Sandy Alcantara is keeping the playoffs out of reach. The inverse is true in Pittsburgh, where Paul Skenes leads an impressive rotation but Bryan Reynolds has a wRC+ of just 55. Meanwhile, the Rockies are the team that can be most decisively counted out of the playoff picture in a season where they’re poised to contend for the modern loss record.

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Which of the teams outside of the NL playoff picture entering play today do MLBTR readers think stands the best chance of making it into the postseason? Have your say in the poll below:

Which Current NL Non-Playoff Team Is Most Likely To Make The Postseason In 2025?
Atlanta Braves 36.90% (1,358 votes)
St. Louis Cardinals 21.63% (796 votes)
Arizona Diamondbacks 16.77% (617 votes)
Cincinnati Reds 10.92% (402 votes)
Milwaukee Brewers 5.54% (204 votes)
The final NL playoff field will be identical to the current standings. 4.73% (174 votes)
Colorado Rockies 1.71% (63 votes)
Pittsburgh Pirates 0.98% (36 votes)
Washington Nationals 0.54% (20 votes)
Miami Marlins 0.27% (10 votes)
Total Votes: 3,680

The Opener: Twins, Phillies, Red Sox, Braves

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world this weekend:

1. Twins await updates on Buxton, Correa while eyeing 12th straight win:

The Twins lost two stars in worrying fashion yesterday when center fielder Byron Buxton and shortstop Carlos Correa collided in the outfield and hit the ground. Correa exited immediately, and Buxton departed the game an inning later. Both were placed into MLB’s protocol to be evaluated for concussion-like symptoms, the Twins announced. Bench coach Jayce Tingler told reporters that more information would be available today (link via The Athletic’s Dan Hayes).

Minnesota has won 11 consecutive games and pushed right back into the playoff conversation after a slow start. Buxton has been everything they could ask for in 2025, slashing .261/.312/.522 with 10 homers, an 8-for-8 showing in stolen bases, and excellent defense in center field. Correa’s offensive numbers are below-average, but he’s heated up over the past couple weeks (.328/.343/.406 his past 17 games). Harrison Bader and Brooks Lee appear likeliest to cover center field and shortstop during any potential absences, although Bader exited Wednesday’s doubleheader with groin tightness and was out of yesterday’s lineup. Willi Castro can handle either position, as can former top prospect Austin Martin, who’s raking in Triple-A after opening the year on the injured list. Neither Castro nor Martin is an ideal long-term fit at either position from a defensive standpoint, but they give the Twins some short-term cover.

The Twins will look to push their winning streak to 12 tonight in Milwaukee when they send righty Joe Ryan (2.74 ERA) to the mound against Brewers rookie Chad Patrick (3.19 ERA). Minnesota sends Pablo Lopez (2.77 ERA) to the mound Saturday against a TBD Brewers starter. Sunday, Minnesota will reportedly call up top prospect Zebby Matthews (1.93 ERA in Triple-A) to take on Milwaukee’s top starter, Freddy Peralta (2.66 ERA).

2. Harper, Schwarber nearing milestones:

Wednesday’s doubleheader between the Cardinals and the Phillies left two of Philadelphia’s best hitters on the cusp of major milestones. Bryce Harper hit an RBI single in Game 1 to knock in the 999th runner of his career, putting him just one step away from 1,000 career RBI. Kyle Schwarber, meanwhile, hit the 299th home run of his career in Game 2, putting him just one away from being the 163rd big leaguer in history to hit 300 career homers.

The Phillies were off yesterday, but this weekend’s matchup with the Pirates in Philadelphia will provide both sluggers with the opportunity to make quick work of those milestones. They’ll face southpaw Andrew Heaney (3.15 ERA) at 6:45pm local time this evening to kick off the weekend series. Righty Carmen Mlodzinski (5.20 ERA) and ace Paul Skenes (2.63 ERA) will take the mound Saturday and Sunday.

3. Fascinating Fenway matchup:

The Red Sox welcome the Braves to Boston this weekend, and tonight’s game (scheduled for 7:10pm local time) will serve as something of a full circle moment. Last winter, the Red Sox traded southpaw Chris Sale to Atlanta, and the oft-injured ace not only went on to have his healthiest season in five years but win his first Cy Young Award and capture the NL Triple Crown for the Braves.

After seeing one ace left-hander whom they acquired from the White Sox revitalize his career, the Red Sox responded by … acquiring another ace left-hander from the White Sox: Garrett Crochet. The 25-year-old Crochet has been brilliant in Boston, logging a 1.93 ERA and 28.9% strikeout rate in nine starts (56 innings). Sale, meanwhile, has a solid if unspectacular 3.97 ERA in nine outings but much stronger peripherals (2.91 FIP, 2.93 SIERA, 30.2 K%, 6.1 BB%). Will Boston be able to overcome their former ace with the new kid in town on the mound? Sale and Crochet square off tonight in a fascinating showdown that carries a bit more intrigue than the standard pitchers’ duel.

Poll: American League Playoff Outlook

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We’re now a little over a quarter of the way through the 2025 regular season. With Memorial Day fast approaching, it’s hard for struggling teams to continue arguing that it’s still early. That isn’t to say playoff positions are set in stone, of course; on this day last year, the Mariners and Twins were firmly in playoff position while the eventual AL West champion Astros were in fourth place in the division and seven games under .500.

If the season ended today, the Tigers, Yankees, Mariners, Guardians, Royals, and Twins would be your playoff teams in the American League this year. With four-and-a-half months left in the baseball calendar, which team currently outside of that group has the best chance of breaking their way into the mix?

Here’s a look at a few of the options, listed in order of record entering play today:

Houston Astros (22-20)

Houston’s first season in a post-Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman world has been an uneven one. Jose Altuve does not look like the difference-maker he once was in his age-35 season. He’s hitting .256/.302/.369 (90 wRC+) and has effectively played at replacement level. His batted-ball profile suggests he may even be a bit fortunate to have the modest rate stats he currently possesses. Yordan Alvarez is injured, Yainer Diaz is well-below average at the plate, and neither Christian Walker nor Cam Smith is producing the way Houston hoped.

On the positive side, Isaac Paredes (141 wRC+) and Jeremy Pena (139 wRC+) have both been excellent at the plate. Hunter Brown is looking like an early Cy Young candidate, and the late-inning duo of Josh Hader and Bryan Abreu is one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball. If Alvarez can get healthy and the team can find some outfield help this summer, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Houston make its tenth consecutive postseason.

Texas Rangers (23-21)

Entering the season, the Rangers looked like they had an excellent offense that would be held down by questions about the pitching staff. The reality they’ve faced this year is the opposite: Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia, Jake Burger, and Joc Pederson have all been somewhere between disappointing and terrible. Corey Seager has been injured, and Evan Carter started the year in the minors. Josh Jung, Josh Smith, and Wyatt Langford have been the only standout performers in the lineup so far this year.

That’s been offset by phenomenal performances in the rotation despite injuries to Jon Gray, Cody Bradford, and Kumar Rocker. Jacob deGrom is back and striking out a third of batters like it’s 2019, but he’s arguably the #3 starter in a rotation where Nathan Eovaldi and Tyler Mahle have sub-2.00 ERAs. Even emergency addition Patrick Corbin is turning back the clock with a 3.35 ERA across seven starts. If the Rangers’ vaunted offense can wake up a bit, it’s easy to imagine the 2023 World Series champs making a run.

The Athletics (22-21)

John Fisher’s aggressive offseason after abandoning Oakland for West Sacramento is paying off in the standings, though it’s mostly been due to young players breaking out. Jacob Wilson is looking like a unicorn in the mold of Luis Arraez. Tyler Soderstrom has emerged as a breakout slugger. Shea Langeliers is in the midst of a career year at the dish.

The pitching is cause for concern, but Gunnar Hoglund has looked good in his first taste of big league action, while both Luis Severino and Mason Miller have peripherals that suggest their results should improve with time. Three of last year’s most productive players — Lawrence Butler, JJ Bleday, and Brent Rooker — have taken steps backward, however. That will limit the club’s potential if they can’t get back on track.

Toronto Blue Jays (22-22)

With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. now in the fold for life, now all the Blue Jays have to do is win with him. The returns on that front are mixed. Veterans like George Springer, Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt are doing their best to make everyone forget about their age, but the performances of longer-term pieces like Anthony Santander, Bowden Francis and Jose Berrios are deeply concerning. Jeff Hoffman has been among baseball’s best closers so far and Bo Bichette is an above-average hitter again, but Alejandro Kirk has been pedestrian at the plate and Guerrero’s 131 wRC+, while terrific relative to the rest of the league, represents a major step back from last year’s 165. A healthy and effective return from future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer would go a long way to stabilizing the rotation, but players like Santander and Berrios will need to get going if playoff baseball is to return to Canada this year.

Boston Red Sox (22-23)

After pushing in by adding Garrett Crochet and Bregman this winter, the Red Sox entered the year looking like one of the AL’s best teams. While they haven’t exactly been bad, the season certainly hasn’t worked out that way so far. Crochet and Bregman are both as-advertised or better, and Wilyer Abreu is looking like a bona fide lefty slugger to pair with Rafael Devers.

Kristian Campbell has begun to cool off after a torrid start, however, and the rotation injuries have begun to pile up. It’s anyone’s guess who will be playing first base on any given day. Triston Casas is out for the year. Romy Gonzalez is on the injured list. Devers doesn’t sound keen on another position change. Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer are knocking on the door in the minors, and perhaps their eventual debuts will be the spark this team needs to get back into the playoff mix.

The Rest Of The Field

The five teams mentioned above are all within two games of a Wild Card spot, but the rest of the AL can’t be counted out. The Rays will benefit from the eventual returns of players like Ha-Seong Kim and Shane McClanahan, but they need more offense from key pieces like Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, and Junior Caminero. The Orioles should have the lineup to compete, but they have some key bats struggling and will need to figure out their disastrous pitching staff to get back into the race. The Angels have faded after a hot start, but players like Luis Rengifo and Taylor Ward should start hitting eventually. The White Sox still have an abysmal offense, but the rotation has been surprisingly solid with Rule 5 pick Shane Smith in particular looking like a steal.

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Which of the teams outside of the AL playoff picture entering play today do MLBTR readers think stands the best chance of making it into the postseason? Have your say in the poll below:

Which Current Non-Playoff Team Is Most Likely To Make The Postseason In 2025?
Boston Red Sox 26.54% (1,248 votes)
Texas Rangers 20.14% (947 votes)
Houston Astros 19.60% (922 votes)
Athletics 8.65% (407 votes)
Toronto Blue Jays 7.95% (374 votes)
The current six teams in playoff position will hold on and reach the postseason. 7.14% (336 votes)
Baltimore Orioles 4.42% (208 votes)
Tampa Bay Rays 2.34% (110 votes)
Chicago White Sox 1.81% (85 votes)
Los Angeles Angels 1.40% (66 votes)
Total Votes: 4,703

The Opener: Astros, Rangers, Bochy, Twins, Dodgers

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Series Preview: Astros @ Rangers

The Astros are headed four hours north to face their intrastate rivals in a four-game series. The first of those games is scheduled for 7:05pm local time this evening and will feature a pair of the league’s best starters: 36-year-old veteran Jacob deGrom, who sports a 2.72 ERA and a 32.6% strikeout rate in eight starts, will be on the bump for the Rangers. The Astros will counter with 26-year-old righty Hunter Brown. Brown has been dominant dating back to last May and has continued his breakout performance into 2025, with a sterling 1.48 ERA and a 32.0% strikeout rate through his first eight starts.

Later in the series, the Astros will send Lance McCullers Jr. to the mound for his third outing since 2022 opposite Rangers righty Nathan Eovaldi, who has a 1.78 ERA through nine starts. Righty Ronel Blanco (4.04 ERA) will toe the rubber for Game 3 opposite righty Tyler Mahle (1.47 ERA). The ’Stros haven’t announced who will take on Rangers youngster Jack Leiter (4.34 ERA) in the series finale. Notably, if the Rangers win even one of these games, Bruce Bochy will earn the 2,195th win of his career, pushing him ahead of Sparky Anderson into sole possession of the sixth-most managerial wins in baseball history.

2. Twins go for 11 in a row:

The Twins swept their doubleheader against the Orioles yesterday, which officially took their recent winning streak to ten games — the longest in MLB this season. Minnesota remains in fourth place in the crowded AL Central division at the moment, but their 23-20 record is actually enough to put them in the driver’s seat for the third AL Wild Card spot (one game ahead of the previously mentioned Astros).

If the Twins want to sweep Baltimore and extend their winning streak to 11 games, they’ll need to go through 35-year-old Tomoyuki Sugano. The storied NPB ace is in the midst of his first season in the majors, and so far he’s excelled with a 2.72 ERA in eight starts despite some shaky peripherals (most notably the fourth-lowest strikeout rate in MLB, at 14.2%). Will the Twins and righty Chris Paddack — who has a 4.76 ERA on the season but a terrific 2.51 mark over his past six turns — be able to overcome him?

3. Rushing time in L.A.:

The Dodgers announced yesterday that they were calling up top catching prospect Dalton Rushing, and it seems likely he’ll make his big league debut tonight against the A’s and righty Osvaldo Bido, with first pitch set for 7:10pm local time in Los Angeles. The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya wrote last night that Rushing is expected to be behind the plate for a bullpen game today. Righty Matt Sauer is in line to open tonight’s game, which would’ve been started by Roki Sasaki were it not for a recent IL placement due to a shoulder impingement.

Rushing, 24, was the 40th overall pick back in 2022 and forced the Dodgers’ hand on a call to the big leagues with a terrific .308/.424/.514 batting line (145 wRC+), five homers, and a huge 15.9% walk rate in 132 plate appearances in Triple-A this year. That came on the heels of similarly excellent production in Triple-A late last season. Overall, he’s a .289/.409/.512 hitter in 68 games and 301 plate appearances at the top minor league level. Virtually every set of prospect rankings around the game has Rushing in the top 40 of the game, with MLB.com lauding him as baseball’s No. 15 prospect. FanGraphs pegged him eighth in the sport heading into the season.

Poll: Is Javier Baez Back?

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During the 2021-22 offseason, the Tigers felt they were close enough to competing that it was time to start spending. Then-GM Al Avila signed two major free agents that winter: southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez and shortstop Javier Baez. Those offseason moves did not work out, generally speaking. The Tigers lost 96 games in 2022 as Rodriguez posted below-average numbers in an injury-marred season while Baez put up the worst full season by wRC+ of his career with a figure of 89. Avila was fired that August, giving way to a new regime under president of baseball operations Scott Harris.

Baez, meanwhile, went on to have a pair of disastrous seasons marred by injury and ineffectiveness in 2023 and ’24, hitting a combined .208/.251/.315 (56 wRC+) while being limited to just 216 games by hip and back issues. Those injuries eventually required season-ending hip surgery last year, leaving Baez on the sidelines while his team went on a miracle run last September that led them to Game 5 of the ALDS. Entering 2025, there were heightened expectations for the Tigers following that September surge.

For Baez personally, however, expectations had never been lower. The 32-year-old had multiple All-Star appearances and Gold Glove awards under his belt, but he entered 2025 without a specified role in Detroit despite the three years and $73MM remaining on his contract. Injuries during Spring Training paved the way for Baez to have a clearer role in Detroit, but even on Opening Day he was limited to a utility role where he would mostly face left-handed pitching.

Things changed once the season began, however. Baez took quite well to both center field and third base despite having virtually no experience in the outfield and only sparing appearances at the hot corner. In more recent weeks, his role has moved from a part-time utility role to being the club’s go-to option in center field, where he’s started 16 of the club’s last 20 games. Baez has always been an impressive defender anywhere he plays when healthy, so perhaps the veteran taking to new defensive positions isn’t exactly surprising. More shocking than his glove work this year has been his impressive offensive production: he’s hit a whopping .319/.357/.513 with a wRC+ of 148 across 126 plate appearances.

Even when Baez was at his best, he was a somewhat fickle hitter. While some seasons saw Baez hit extremely well, such as his 2021 (117 wRC+) and 2018 (131 wRC+) campaigns, he was actually below average at the dish in three of his six seasons as an everyday player for the Cubs. Given that unevenness, Baez’s 89 wRC+, two-win performance during his first season with Detroit wasn’t incredibly shocking. And when the injuries began to pile up in 2023 and ’24 and his offensive numbers began to rapidly decline, few expected him to ever return to the above-average form he showed during his days on the north side of Chicago.

Is 126 plate appearances of strong production enough to change that narrative? The underlying numbers offer mixed reviews. Baez’s 24.6% strikeout rate and 4.0% walk rate this year are virtually identical to his 23.9% strikeout rate and 4.3% walk rate across his first three seasons in Detroit. That strikeout rate is actually five points lower than his strikeout rate with the Cubs, but the main red flag in Baez’s performance with the Tigers wasn’t his free-swinging approach. After being a consistent power threat during his days in the National League, where his ISO is an impressive .212, Baez saw his power evaporate over his first three seasons in Detroit as his ISO plummeted to just .126.

Going from 2024 Elly De La Cruz to 2024 Alex Verdugo in the power department is a drastic downturn in performance, and while Baez’s .193 ISO this year hasn’t gotten all the way back to his previous heights, it’s a big step in the right direction. That renewed power might not be entirely sustainable, however. Baez is posting his lowest hard-hit rate since 2017, his 6.8% barrel rate is actually lower than last year, and he’s hitting more grounders (51.6%) than ever before. That suggests his current power output (five homers and eight doubles) may not be entirely sustainable, and his massive .398 BABIP surely isn’t either for a player who routinely posted BABIPs in the .340 to .350 range at his peak.

Perhaps that means Baez’s return to form this year is nothing more than a mirage, but there are some positive signs in his underlying data. Baez is swinging outside the strike zone less than ever before in his career, and his in-zone contact rate is also the best of his career. That improved plate discipline may not be showing up in his walk rate at this point, but better pitch selection could be allowing him to avoid making the worst types of contact; his 3.4% infield fly ball rate is tied with 2019 for the best figure of his career, and his 12.5% soft-contact rate would be 40th best in the sport if he had enough plate appearances to qualify.

Those subtle improvements don’t support his star-level production so far, but his .291 xwOBA is a perfect match for the wOBA he posted for Detroit back in 2022. Perhaps that means offensive production on the low-end of what was expected of him at his peak, in line with the 2016, ’17, and ’22 seasons, could be sustainable for the veteran. Given that Baez was a potential DFA candidate just a few months ago, the Tigers would surely take that sort of solid, two-to-three win production from their $140MM man very happily.

How much do MLBTR readers buy into Baez’s resurgence? Will he be able to continue tapping into his power enough to float above-average offensive numbers despite shaky peripherals? Will he fall back to Earth and be a replacement level player going forward, as he was the past two years? Or will he find a middle ground as an average to slightly-below average hitter who remains valuable thanks to strong defense? Have your say in the poll below:

What is Javier Baez's outlook for 2025?
His numbers won't stay this good, but better health and even decent offense will be enough to make him a two-win player thanks to his defense. 45.26% (2,086 votes)
He'll post his best season since 2021 and emerge as an above-average hitter this year. 34.71% (1,600 votes)
This hot start is a flash in the pan and he'll be a replacement level player once again at the end of the season. 20.03% (923 votes)
Total Votes: 4,609

Matt Carpenter Announces Retirement

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Veteran infielder Matt Carpenter announced his retirement on Sports Spectrum’s Get In The Game podcast (h/t to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch) this morning. He hangs up his spikes after 14 years in the majors.

“I wanted to take this opportunity on this podcast, here with you, and officially announce my retirement from baseball. I was very fortunate enough to play for some great organizations, and had quite a thrill being able to don the St. Louis Cardinals logo for many years, a brief stint with the New York Yankees, and also the San Diego Padres.” Carpenter told former MLB pitcher Scott Linebrink. Carpenter went on to thank his family, before adding that he’s “excited for what’s next.”

Matt Carpenter | Jeff Curry-USA TODAY SportsA veteran of 14 MLB seasons, Carpenter was open to continuing his career in 2025 as recently as this past September. That was following a season with the Cardinals where he battled injuries and struck out at a 32.5% clip but still produced a roughly average 95 wRC+ across 157 plate appearances in a part-time role. That sort of production was still enough to make Carpenter a solid bench piece, though with the Cardinals’ attempted pivot towards providing young players more opportunities this year, a reunion between the 39-year-old and his longtime club evidently wasn’t in the cards.

As Carpenter mentioned, he was wearing Cardinal red for most of his career. The Cards selected him in the 13th round of the 2009 draft. He made it to the big leagues in 2011, the year of the club’s most recent World Series win, but he was a footnote in that season. He was selected to the roster in June and optioned back to the minors after a seven-game cup of coffee.

His major league career began in earnest in 2012. As a 26-year-old rookie that year, Carpenter took to hitting in the majors almost right away. He hit an impressive .294/.365/.463 in 114 games while splitting time between first base, second base, third base, and both outfield corners. That show of versatility was enough to earn Carpenter a sixth-place finish in Rookie of the Year voting despite the fact that he had yet to generate the type of power he would later in his career, clubbing just six homers in 340 trips to the plate. He also hit .286/.412/.571 in playoff games, though the Cards were felled by the Giants in the NLCS.

He took a step forward in 2013 and had arguably his best season. He almost doubled his power output, getting to 11 home runs. He walked at a 10% clip and only struck out 13.7% of the time. That led to a .318/.392/.481 slash and 146 wRC+. He was selected to the All-Star team for the first time. FanGraphs credits him with 7.2 wins above replacement for that season, his personal best by a good margin. He finished fourth in National League Most Valuable Player voting. Carpenter didn’t perform especially well in the postseason that year, hitting .217/.263/.290, but the Cards made it as far as the World Series, losing to the Red Sox in six games.

The Cards then locked him up on an extension which would pay him $52MM over the 2014 to 2019 seasons and keep him in St. Louis into his mid-3os. Over the rest of the decade, his production shifted slightly, with a bit more power but a bit less on-base ability. The aggregate was roughly similar though, making him a very useful player as he bounced around the infield. From 2015 to 2018, he hit between 21 and 36 home runs in each season, totalling 108 long balls in that four-year stretch. He slashed a combined .260/.376/.497 for that span, leading to a 135 wRC+.

In April of 2019, as Carpenter was entering the final guaranteed year of his deal, he and the Cards agreed to another extension. This one would pay him $39MM over the 2020 and 2021 seasons. However, that ultimately proved to be a misstep for the club, as Carpenter’s production declined over those next few years. His wRC+ finished at 96 in 2019, then 85 in the shortened 2020 campaign, before going all the way down to 68 in 2021.

The Cards could have retained Carpenter for 2022 via an $18.5MM club option, but with his declining results, the $2MM buyout was the easy call. That sent him to free agency for the first time in his career, ahead of his age-36 season.

Though many had written him off at that point, Carpenter was able to engineer a brief but brilliant renaissance. Thanks to some help from Joey Votto, as reported by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, Carpenter worked to revamp his swing. He signed a minor league deal with the Rangers and clubbed six home runs in 21 games for their Triple-A club. Despite the strong results, the Rangers weren’t willing to give him a spot, so they released him.

The Yankees gave Carpenter a major league deal, which paid off immediately. He amazingly hit 15 home runs in just 47 games for the Yanks, while also walking at a 12.3% pace. Unfortunately, that amazing run was cut short when Carpenter fouled a ball off his foot in August. He suffered a fracture and missed the rest of the regular season. He was activated for the playoffs but struck out in nine of his 12 plate appearances. His regular season line for that year finished at a ridiculous .305/.412/.727, translating to a 216 wRC+.

Though it was cut short by injury, the Padres bought into Carpenter’s return to form. They signed him to a two-year, $12MM deal going into 2023, but that bet didn’t pay off. Carpenter slashed .176/.322/.319 for the Friars that year. He was traded to Atlanta ahead of the 2024 season in what was clearly a salary dump deal, as Atlanta released him shortly thereafter. He returned to the Cardinals and, as mentioned, had a serviceable season as a role player. That will now go down as his final big league season.

All told, Carpenter got into 1,511 games and stepped to the plate 5,773 times. He had 1,257 hits, including 179 home runs. He scored 813 runs and drove in 659. He walked in 13.4% of his plate appearances, helping him slash .259/.366/.449 for a 125 wRC+. He produced 31.5 fWAR and 28.7bWAR, making three All-Star teams along the way. Baseball Reference pegs his career earnings at just over the $100MM mark.

We at MLB Trade Rumors salute Carpenter on his fine career and wish him the best with whatever comes next.

Photos courtesy of Jeff Curry, Imagn Images

The Opener: Doubleheaders, Pitchers’ Duel, Acuna

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On the heels of a longtime veteran’s retirement this morning, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Streaks in St. Louis, Minnesota on the line in doubleheaders:

Around half of doubleheaders result in splits, and that means both the Twins and Cardinals will be looking to defy the odds this afternoon after yesterday’s postponements in Baltimore and Philadelphia forced the two scorching hot clubs to carry their eight- and nine-game win streaks respectively into today. Now each club will need to sweep their doubleheader in order for those streaks to remain alive today. St. Louis’s win streak is already the longest of the 2025 season for any club, though if the Cards were to lose Game 1 and the Twins were to sweep the Orioles today, that title would change hands.

Fans in Baltimore with tickets to today’s game will be treated to a single-admission doubleheader beginning 12:05pm local time, with the second game scheduled to begin approximately 30 minutes after the first one ends per MLB.com. Meanwhile, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com notes that the Phillies are going with a split doubleheader for today’s games, and that tickets for last night’s postponed game will be valid for the evening game scheduled to start at 6:15pm local time.

2. Potential pitchers duels in Philly:

Aside from the intrigue surrounding the Cardinals’ current streak, both games in today’s doubleheader between the Phillies and the Cardinals feature potentially exciting pitching matchups. This afternoon’s game will feature right-hander Erick Fedde (3.86 ERA) coming off a dominant complete game shutout against his former team in Washington, where he struck out 8 Nationals and walked none while scattering six hits. The Phillies will counter with southpaw Jesus Luzardo (2.11 ERA), who has been among the best pitchers in baseball in the early going after an injury-marred season in Miami last year.

This evening’s matchup is equally exciting and will showcase two veteran workhorses: Sonny Gray and Aaron Nola. Gray, 35, had a 3.50 ERA through eight starts this year and is not far removed from a dominant 2023 season with the Twins where he finished second in AL Cy Young award voting after throwing 184 innings, one of just 25 starters to throw at least 180 frames that year. He’ll face off against the 31-year-old Nola, who has thrown at least 180 innings in each of the past six 162-game seasons. Nola is having a down year for the Phillies with just a 4.89 ERA through eight starts, though he’s begun to turn things around of late with a 2.50 ERA in his last three outings.

3. Acuna on the way:

Atlanta has been without its best player since Ronald Acuna Jr. suffered a torn ACL last season, but the 27-year-old is on his way to a return. After appearing in his first rehab game of the year last night, which saw him go 1-for-3 with a home run while playing right field for the club’s complex league team, Daniel Alvarez-Montes of ElExtrabase relays that Acuna is set to depart the organization’s complex in Florida and head back to Georgia today before joining the club’s Triple-A affiliate in Gwinnett to continue his rehab. The move from complex ball to Triple-A is a notable one that leaves just one step between Acuna and the majors, though the superstar remains at least a week or two away from a return to action in the big leagues.

Poll: Will The Rockies Break The Modern Loss Record?

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To say the Rockies have had a rough start to the season would be a major understatement. The club’s 7-34 record speaks for itself, and their struggles appeared to reach a crescendo late last week, when they lost four games in three days by a combined score of 55-12. That includes a demoralizing 21-0 loss to the Padres on Saturday. Longtime manager Bud Black was fired the next day.

It’s pretty much impossible to argue that Black, a well-respected manager with 18 years of experience between the Rockies and Padres, is at particular fault for the state of the team. The Rockies have issues that run far deeper than the manager’s office. Dodgers skipper Dave Roberts suggested as much in the wake of Black’s firing on Sunday, telling reporters (as relayed by Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register) that he didn’t believe Hall of Fame manager Casey Stengel “could change the outcome” of the Rockies’ season.

It’s difficult to argue with that point. The Rockies, after all, lost 101 games last year. They had the National League’s worst offense (82 wRC+), struck out more than any other team, and were middle of the pack in homers despite calling Coors Field home. The pitching was even worse, as Colorado had the league’s worst ERA (5.48), FIP (4.94), and SIERA (4.62). Even when adjusted for the park factors of Coors Field, it was a league-worst showing in virtually every category. Their best pitcher to make even one start last year was Ryan Feltner, whose pedestrian 4.49 ERA was three points better than average (103 ERA+) after adjusting for park factors. The back of the bullpen was no better, as saves leader Tyler Kinley ended the season with a 6.19 ERA.

That was last year’s ball club, and things have only gotten worse. The Rockies essentially stood pat over the winter, with outfielders Mickey Moniak and Nick Martini joining infielders Kyle Farmer, Tyler Freeman, and Thairo Estrada as the club’s primary additions. Estrada has yet to appear in a regular season game for the Rockies. The other four are all below replacement level according to both bWAR and fWAR.

Disastrous as the Rockies season has been, breaking the modern loss record just one year after the 2024 White Sox set a new one with their 41-121 season may seem far-fetched. Even a 101-loss club that didn’t add much over the winter shouldn’t usually be assumed to regress by more than 20 games.

That’s where the injuries come in. Colorado was able to stay in some of its games last year thanks to standout performances from Ezequiel Tovar and Brenton Doyle, who paired league average offense with Gold Glove-caliber defense at shortstop and center field. This year, Tovar played poorly across 16 games before going on the injured list. Doyle has remained healthy, but his 60 wRC+ is deeply disappointing and defensive metrics haven’t been nearly as impressed with his work in the outfield as in previous seasons. Feltner is also currently on the injured list alongside Tovar, and $182MM man Kris Bryant remains out indefinitely amid nearly half a decade’s worth of injury woes that have knocked him so far from his MVP status that he no longer plays every day even when healthy.

Typically, even the combination of a low-quality roster and frustrating injury issues wouldn’t be enough to make a team a contender for worst of all time. But Colorado plays in the NL West, which this year has not only has the reigning World Series champion Dodgers but a trio of strong contenders. The Padres and Giants are both in playoff position. The Diamondbacks, who went to the World Series as recently as 2023, are just a few games behind San Diego and San Francisco.

The other four teams in the Rockies’ division are a combined 98-67, good for a .594 winning percentage that translates to a 96-win pace over a 162-game season. If the Rockies were to double their current win percentage over their final 121 games this year, they’d finish the season with a record of 48-114, just seven games ahead of the White Sox’s 2024 record. Perhaps the only saving grace for the Rockies in this conversation is that the middle of May leaves ample time to turn things and get ahead of the .253 winning percentage from last year’s South Siders.

Where do MLBTR readers fall on this issue? Will the Rockies continue on this pace and wipe the White Sox’s 2024 campaign from the history books just one year after the fact? Or will they be able to turn things around enough to avoid that embarrassing fate? Have your say in the poll below:

Will the Rockies set a new modern loss record this year?
Yes, they'll lose at least 122 games. 60.57% (2,768 votes)
No, they'll lose 120 games or fewer. 34.57% (1,580 votes)
They'll tie the 2024 White Sox exactly with 121 losses. 4.86% (222 votes)
Total Votes: 4,570

The Opener: Cubs, Cardinals, Twins

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As the 2025 regular season continues, here are three things for MLBTR readers to keep an eye on today:

1. Cubs 40-man roster move incoming:

Reports surfaced last night indicating that the Cubs are poised to call up top catching prospect Moises Ballesteros today. Ballesteros is unlikely to catch much in this first taste of big league action, as he appears poised to serve as the club’s DH for the time being while Seiya Suzuki covers for the injured Ian Happ in left field. The 21-year-old Ballesteros has been among the best hitters at Triple-A this year despite his young age, crushing the ball at a .368/.420/.522 clip across 150 plate appearances. Ballesteros is not yet on the Cubs’ 40-man roster, and with no obvious 60-day IL candidates it appears that they’ll need to designate a player for assignment today. Ballesteros’s first game in the majors, assuming he makes his debut today, will come against Valente Bellozo (3.50 ERA in four starts) and the Marlins at 6:40pm local time in Chicago.

2. Cardinals go for ten in a row:

The Cardinals took an eight-game winning streak into Philadelphia yesterday and emerged with a 3-2 victory over the Phillies to extend that streak to nine games. It’s the longest winning streak of the season so far and has thrust them into the thick of the race for the NL Central crown. They’re currently one game behind the Cubs, but to stay hot on the North Siders’ heels and extend the streak to ten straight wins they’ll need to take down Phillies southpaw Jesus Luzardo, who has posted a 2.11 ERA in eight starts during his first season with the club. The Cardinals, meanwhile, will counter with veteran righty Sonny Gray and his 3.50 ERA across eight starts. Tonight’s game in Philadelphia begins at 6:45pm local time.

3. Twins go for nine in a row:

Minnesota is looking to extend its own impressive win streak, which currently sits at eight games. The Twins took the final two games of their recent series in Boston before sweeping a struggling Orioles club and a strong Giants team in their visits to Target Field. Next up is a rematch with the Orioles — this time in Baltimore. The Twins will send 24-year-old righty Simeon Woods Richardson (4.01 ERA in 33 2/3 innings) to the mound against former Twins prospect Cade Povich (5.55 ERA in 35 2/3 innings) in the series opener, which is scheduled for 6:35pm local time. Minnesota tagged Povich for five runs in six innings when the two squared off last week. The Orioles scored two runs off Woods Richardson in a shorter, 4 2/3-inning start.

Despite rattling off eight straight wins, the Twins have only picked up 2.5 games in the division race. The Tigers, Guardians and Royals have all been playing well recently, leaving Rocco Baldelli’s club 5.5 games out of the division lead. Minnesota has, however, wiped out a 5.5-game deficit in the Wild Card chase with this streak. The Twins are currently tied with the A’s and Red Sox for the final Wild Card spot in the American League.

The Opener: Seager, Snell, Cardinals

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It’s already a newsworthy morning, with one of MLB’s top prospects reportedly headed to the majors. Here are three more things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Seager to be re-evaluated:

Late last month, the Rangers lost star shortstop Corey Seager to the injured list due to a strained right hamstring. The club’s star came back after just a minimum stint on the shelf. Unfortunately, it appears he didn’t come back at full strength. He served as the club’s DH on the day of his activation from the IL and since then has played just four games in eight days. Evidently, Seager is still feeling the effects of his hamstring injury, and Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reported yesterday that Seager will be “re-evaluated” today after missing yesterday’s game due to his hamstring tightening up while playing Saturday. Josh Smith has been filling in as the club’s shortstop on days Seager is unable to play and figures to continue doing so if Seager required another stint on the injured list.

2. Snell visiting with team doctors:

Blake Snell has made just two starts in his first season as a Dodger so far due to persistent soreness in his left shoulder. The southpaw was expected to return to action late April but instead wound up getting shut down from throwing entirely. In the nearly three weeks since, he has yet to resume throwing. Today, Snell is expected to meet with team doctors to determine next steps regarding his injury amid continued soreness in his shoulder.

The Dodgers have struggled to patch together their rotation without Snell (as well as Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, and others). Despite their impressive pitching depth, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Dustin May have been the only consistent performers on the staff. Roki Sasaki is the only other Dodgers pitcher with even 20 innings as a starter, and though his future outlook remains bright, he’s struggled early on in his initial jump to Major League Baseball. Sasaki, Tony Gonsolin and Landon Knack round out a patchwork rotation at the moment.

3. Surging Cardinals go for 2025’s longest win streak:

The Cardinals opened the offseason by talking about a need to step back and focus on player development. An offseason of inactivity followed. Reliever Phil Maton was the team’s only free-agent addition, and the Cards spent most of the winter trying unsuccessfully to trade future Hall of Famer Nolan Arenado. The 2025 season was billed as a year of transition, creating opportunities for young players and scaling back the payroll.

All of that may end up playing out, but if the front office was eyeing a rebuild/retool, the players on the field seem to have other ideas. The Cardinals have rattled off eight straight victories, boosting their record to 22-19 and tying them with the Twins for the longest active streak in the majors right now. Minnesota is off today, but the Cardinals and Phillies square off this evening in Philadelphia at 6:45pm local time. The Cards will send red-hot lefty Matthew Liberatore (1.88 ERA, 27-to-6 K/BB ratio in 28 2/3 innings over his past five starts) to the mound against another impressive southpaw, Cristopher Sanchez, who’s been nearly just as good in that same span (2.39 ERA, 28-to-11 K/BB in 26 1/3 frames over his past five turns).

The current eight-game win streaks in St. Louis and Minnesota tie those two teams with the Dodgers for the longest streak of the 2025 campaign. If the Cards can rattle off a ninth straight victory tonight, they’ll improbably stake a claim to the top winning streak of 2025 in a season where they didn’t even appear fully intent on contending.

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